good news. as the number of dying ever increases, perhaps fewer cases and the need for fewer hospital beds. perhaps the prime minister is stable and perhaps wuhan will and their lockdown. no one wants a tangible barrel of oil. calgary reconsiders the pressure. days, noteeded in " weeks." billions more for small businesses and individuals as republicans take a meeting with democratic senators. this is bloomberg "surveillance." we continue forward in this pandemic. realight in new york, a picture of glimmers of hope,

governor cuomo looking for any optimism he can find. some geographies of america doing better in the pandemic, but the death and the rate of change of deaths refuses to bend over and go lower. with extraordinary measures being applied and something we all need to reflect on as we think about what comes next. these managing to keep numbers stable, but with extreme measures when it comes to how our society is functioning. how we reopen needs to be seen in this light, and it will be a challenge around the world for governments to reopen economies. tom: good reporting earlier from guy on the state of the prime minister, a conversation with iain duncan smith moments ago. our oninue with a strong

the economics of the pandemic -- strong hour on the economics of the pandemic. ministers.u. finance were on an emergency teleconference lasting more than 16 hours. strategynot agree on a to battle the pandemic. e.u. issue joint debt to help economies recover? boris johnson is being monitored in intensive care. a statement says he continues to receive oxygen while being treated for coronavirus. the u.k. coming off its deadliest day yet. in 24 hours, seven hundred 86 people died. in the united states, the president is getting plans to action,economy under involving testing more americans then have been tested.

new york, detroit, and new orleans would remain shuttered. producers arel inching toward an unprecedented deal to cut oil output. its production this year following almost 10%. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. tom: thank you so much. an interesting churn to the markets, on equities, green, red, whatever. on bonds, we see some dollar strength. what is fascinating is oil, leading our hydrocarbons team, it is absolutely original in oil.

there is brent in which we quote the global price and west texas intermediate, the american price, and then there is the actual physical market where no one wants the next barrel. one measurement of that is western canada oil. it plunged yesterday where the leadership of alberta are even considering a negative price for oil. extraordinary. guy: paying people to take it off your hands because there is nowhere to store it. india looking to make some purchases but that is unlikely to have an impact on the places you are talking about. european stocks are down. we are in a tight range. eye onpreads, keep an

what is happening. points as webasis see the eurozone at loggerhead for how to deal with this crisis and how it should be financed. the block is back this morning and a little bit stronger -- buck is back a little bit stronger. tom: all of that money going into etf's, financial instruments betting on an agreement by these nations where the physical market is completely messed up where i have never seen it where you have less canada oil under $10 a barrel. stoltzfus is with oppenheimer and provides strategy on the equity market.

it is something we have never seen before. if i have cash today, what do i do with it, be brave and acquire shares of stock? john: it depends upon your sensitivity for potential volatility. we are far from out of the woods right now on this thing. our advice is for investors with well diversified portfolios, it is an opportunity not to sell the portfolios but to rebalance and reposition. if you are all cash, you might want to stay all cashier or here or-- all cash perhaps dip a toe in but you could experience extreme volatility before we are out of this. we are held hostage by the progress we have in the medical

community working against it. strategy,framework or what ratios are you using for individual stock selection? several. the area of in dividends for private investors and institutions looking for income in this low interest rate environment, we are looking at credit ratings and we are betweenat the ratio cash, the -- depth to ability to pay dividends, the payout ratio related to dividends, and most importantly what is the premise of the business, what is its historical attitude toward their shareholders and growing dividends, and what is

management thinking and how are they managing through this process? we look for quality of management above all else at this point. guy: it is guy in london. we are seeing the vix coming morning, a bits like dropping a tennis ball, the bounces get smaller and smaller. will it be easier to determine those points without feeling like you are getting socked out at either end of the spectrum? son: we would have to expect , if we get to see the virus lose momentum, and as we have seen recently in the rallies today we have experienced and the market's progress from the lows of march 23, the market is telling us where it wants to go.

it wants to go higher. we are oversold on negative projection going forward, but the problem is the news coming across the tape, the economic data, earnings season really withning to gain momentum the unofficial opening next week where the big banks report. we are in a position where there is potential for volatility. we saw it yesterday in the way the rally faded. on the pre-open, the gains were strong and shortly after the market opened, the market started to lose its pre-open gains and played with that throughout the day. guy: thank you for spending time with us, john stoltzfus from -- asset management. up, stephen roach, former

morgan stanley chief economist. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone, bloomberg's "surveillance." i am tom keene in new york, guy johnson in london. stephen roach with morgan say he, many would invented modern market economics. he decided he could distribute the messages of morgan stanley. of his messages of morgan stanley in a new way, he took that to china in his

asia,"ed book, "the next and has followed onto yale university where he teaches the toughest course in the system. what everyone wants to know from you internationally is with china? can we just china? stephen: that is the wrong question to ask. everybody asks that. can we trust anyone now? can we trust our leadership telling us the truth on where we are going? china has a template. you may not like what they did in the beginning, and very few people dead. they locked down their economy and are trying to come out the other side. they are normalizing production and having a difficult time normalizing consumption, but whether we look at china or south korea or other nations who

have done, i think taken draconian efforts to contain the virus, as much as we dislike the methods they are using, these are examples, like it or not, we are moving closer to today than we ever envisioned. it is not a question of trusting data. tois trusting the only way contain this virus. tom: i look at all we have done on china and the relationship with china going forward, and i mean whether it is a one or two , andtrump administration how america will treat china later. essayd haass with his published in "foreign affairs" magazine." ♪ stephen: we have got to

recognize a global pandemic cannot be solved by individual nations, and i wrote an article for bloomberg last week that maintained the only way for us in the united states to truly get a hold of this virus is through leading global collaborative efforts, and that includes partnership with china and our other allies. instead, our initial response is to blame others, especially china, and to lose sight of the collaborative opportunities we have in terms of science, public health practices, and leading the world together to deal with a global problem rather than an individual problem afflicting any one nation. guy: good morning.

what do you think we will be able to learn from china about the way it reopens its economy? stephen: i think what we are thening is the reopening on supply side has to be managed very carefully. turn the switch back on, but more critically than that, you have to be mindful of the most painful aspect of china's reopening, getting consumers to come to grips with significant shifts in behavioral norms. when you go to a restaurant today in beijing -- and i just got a message from somebody literally two nights ago -- you walk into ways socially operation.pacing your dishes are wrapped as is your chopsticks, and you have

masks you need to wear between bites. that is not the way to normalize the dining experience and that is not the way to assemble in public places, so consumers will be feeling the long shadow of this pandemic for quite some time. guy: that means there will be significant economic implications. the government is stepping in to soften the blow. debt loads are rising as a result and rising significantly. what are the long-term implications? you see them monetized. we tried austerity, didn't work so well. stephen: that is a great question. i am looking at a chart i showed my class in yale last night, the jet to gd -- jet to djitte -- since 1929.ratio

we will probably get something gdp byo 130% or 140% of the time we finish injecting these fiscal relief packages to the advanced economies in the world. how do we get out of that? probably as we did after world war ii, inflate our way out, and the risk of inflation which is not on anyone's radar screen right now, something to think about over the medium-term. tom: stephen roach, i look at what is going on in washington. we spoke to william white formerly with the oecd and he made clear we have to figure out a way down the road to lose the debt burden, to lessen the debt.

do you have any optimism we can grow our way out of our additional trillions in debt? stephen: that is what we did in the aftermath of world war ii. show aners i just cited incredible spike in the debt burden for advanced economies, and the one we are entering now will be far more severe than it was back then. recoveryfairly robust following world war ii, and that gdp to the novel gbp -- grow more rapidly than the debt burden itself, so we did come down steeply. this gets into the notion we discussed a minute ago on the nature and vigor of the recovery. a v-shaped recovery will bring down the debt burden sharply, but the likelihood in my view is

more of a gradual u-shaped recovery which will keep an elevated debt burden for longer than we would like to think. tom: stephen roach, thank you so much, with yale university. we greatly appreciate it. we are looking at the markets, really driving forward through what is supposed to be a changing jobless claims statistic next week. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ new are watching bloomberg "surveillance cow -- surveillance." heineken saying first quarter inr volume falling 2% and the second quarter it expects at to be worse. the coronavirus pandemic has caused many countries to shut down bars and restaurants. the company that assembles iphones will be making ventilators in the u.s.. no word on where the ventilators will be built. foxconn has a factory in wisconsin. dividends.d to scrap to push fortogether

an extraordinary meeting to reverse the decision. founder, who gave us an update. u.s. is high time for the to receive such notification tom the management of hsbc sell the dividends without any plans. viviana: that is your bloomberg business flash. tom: thank you so much. a look at the data, and it is odd, just a jumble. futures up four. a 46 handle on the vix. some dollar strength. waiting on news in the oil space and in the washington space. guy: absolutely. european equities climbing off their floor.

about 1.1%, down by 1.2%. we are seeing oscillation in bund-btp spread. well andar lower as brent a little bit bid right now. the day, alixr in steel and i will speak with steven major of hsbc, global head of fixed income research. always something interesting. this is bloomberg. ♪

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they picked the wrong woman. just say "xfinity movie premiere" into your voice remote to bring the theater to you. tom: good morning, everyone, on therg "surveillance." nokets, dollar stronger,

question about that, but a jumble waiting on key news in the oil space and the fiscal relief efforts in europe and america as well. we have been trying to speak to people from a broad section about this pandemic and how it folds into our economics, finance, and investment. one of those qualified as mr. schwartzman of blackstone. right now i think the new companiesis on the screens. of displacement going on. there was a week and a half ago panic selling in the mortgage area. dropped securities have

significantly in value, and if you can figure out when somebody is going to repay principal and i think theredue, are some very significant investments that can be made, and we are looking at all those things that blackstone. -- at lax down. -- blackstone. billion not invested that we could put in the markets and we are aggressively looking at doing that. in all of our businesses, in some areas you could be too early but you do not want to be too late. you have correctly identified where the action is today, and i think some of those people will look back and say, that looks so think it could be easy in certain of those areas.

meantime, you are huge into real estate. are you going to let off any of your renters at this time? we have heard of landlords doing that in brooklyn. are you doing that for your tenants? steve: what we are doing for our tenants as people can show us that they have been displaced and are under financial duress as a result of the coronavirus. we will obviously make some kind of accommodation for that. the whole country will be disrupted. then we will get back to doing business. real estate business is in quite good shape because we have concentrated in warehouses and

office buildings as well as apartments, and we avoided development almost in its entirety, owning malls, there are a lot of issues with closed retailers, and we have a low percentage in hotels. remains an for us excellent asset class. we are talking about the distressed areas you are looking to get into. do you think the fed needs to buy junk bonds? steve? that is an interesting question and i leave that to the fed. they typically have purchased higher-rated securities, and even in the new program at the fed, convincing them to go down from aaa's to full investment

grade of triple bees is a big stress -- triple b's is a big stress. junk bonds are a little out of their normal range and i think they will look at that with some skepticism. powder,reat deal of dry that was blackstone ceo steve schwarzman. next, robin niblett of chatham house. this is bloomberg. ♪

i think it is absolutely key that the recovery of europe will be great activity. we have to organize together and as anyone knows, it is possible to do this within the framework we already have. fromna: you just heard german finance minister olaf schultz. let's get your bloomberg first word news. can weathere e.u. the economic storm unscathed, afterers failing to agree a 16 hour emergency teleconference. the stumbling block, whether to issue joint debt to help economies recover. donald trump is speaking about returning americans to work, telling fox news he is looking at concepts of opening areas of the country.

this involves testing more americans than has been possible. hotspots like new york and detroit would remain shuttered. a massive exodus from wuhan as the city reopens. at least 56,000 people have tickets out. seven weeks ago, china imposing a lockdown on the city. we end in spain where the numbers went up again. toll andavirus death number of confirmed cases increasing the most in four days. fatalities and almost 2000 new infections. they want to extend the state of emergency through april 25. global news 24 hours a day, on

air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. we are joined by robin niblett, chatham house director. we find ourselves in a situation where the brain is prime british prime minister is in the icu and the e.u. cannot work together. what did they need to do to put themselves back on track? robin: what does europe need to do, get through the crisis without dragging out the numbers from spain, without it dragging out the window that china appears to have been able to strike for itself. if you can limit the lockdown to two months potentially as europe to three, then

and countries in different situations across europe will be able to manage. it is critical that germany appears to be riding the crisis relatively well, the anchor economy for the whole of europe. most of the others, and some of the northern countries not hit as badly yet, there sort of laissez-faire approach, they seem to be seeing an uptick in reported cases and mortalities. we are very early in the process, yet it would be great if you could have some more coordinated financial support, but you have got to remember. the e.u. as an institution, there are certain areas it has never been involved in. health care, education, these are core aspects, along with

income tax, with national competence. , whereas agdp government accounts for 40%. , and each country is in a different state of the crisis so they approach the crisis in different ways. guy: can britain manage without a bright minister -- prime minister? robin: yes, for the moment. boris johnson is one of the best communicators in the united kingdom in a generation, and having him with his strong parliamentary majority in power, leading the country into a coronavirus process was part of the strength britain brought to the process.

having been laid low by the virus is a shock, but this is not a presidential system. we have a cabinet system and the head of state is her majesty the queen. there is a clear pecking order. raab become, the chancellor is the next person in line and then priti patel. there is a clear pecking order who stands in for the prime minister, but this is a time in which radical decisions will be difficult to take. keep in the country in the same direction it has been going in is entirely manageable, not only with cabinet but with civil service operating behind it. the what is the strength of

international monetary fund right now? they have had a shift from lagarde. how is it going? how is the imf as they prepare to assist a lot of countries, the managing director thinking of the intense challenges of nigeria. give us a chatham house imf score. robin: the imf has done well flying under the radar screen unlike the g20 which is a more politicized environment. my score of the imf is a 7.5 and watching, because they seem to have stepped forward with a clear sense of the funding to be provided. if you have to go to another , an important and significant increase and the

firepower they would bring to bear, you would have a political agreement. to the extent the executive directors, national of thentatives, the head imf are operating at the moment, they are doing as well as can be expected. some of these industries are to face thed crisis. to the publicay gallery is so much higher. tom: what do you hear from your team about the needs in washington from our fiscal effort and in particular for more direct income replacement? robin: the theme of income replacement is the steps taken in the initial package, two point 5 trillion dollars, giving people one-off payments does not

provide certainty or security. tied -- tide large amounts of the american public who live paycheck-to-paycheck, income some not having kindthe government, that of backstop creates a different sense of security. say, in the united states' system this would have to get through quite a divided congress despite what they are able to strike together. it is one thing doing it in british parliament where you have a majority and without a leader. trying to do that in the u.s.

where people are looking ahead to a presidential election and learning how this has played out to the base is an interesting environment. i just don't see it happening. tom: robin, thank you so much, director for china mouse. house.up, our -- chatham coming up, our conversation of the day, one of the true experts on emergency room medicine. lauren sauer will join us from the johns hopkins bloomberg school of health. this is bloomberg. ♪

morning, everyone, bloomberg "surveillance." from new york and london, guy johnson in for francine lacqua. we have tried over these tumultuous weeks to give you the best we can find in medicine, and the explanations of this virus, the explanations of this pandemic. and stephen riley on

the rural-urban this of the virus. on what wean expert are all observing with our loved ones, our neighbors across the news flow, of our first responders, the people in the hospital in beleaguered and overwhelmed emergency rooms and intensive care units. lauren sauer is with the johns hopkins bloomberg school of health. philanthropy from michael bloomberg. we are thrilled to have you with us today. walk into any emergency room in new york city, what would you look for first? lauren: i think the key is actually not walking into the emergency room unless you are critically ill.

we want to keep people out of the emergency department to make sure this space is there for the patient's. you will see sick patients in the emergency room. many emergency rooms are patientsg covid likely and covid likely -- unlikely patients to reduce the spread in waiting rooms and things like that. a beginning ofen the understanding of this virus and flows, focused on the prime minister of england, but for each patient there seems to be a point where they get better and they get worse. the have you learned with johns hopkins medical team about the ebb and flow of this virus, the day to day pathogen? -- one ofe of those

the things about these patients as they have to be watched carefully. their oxygen saturation could look fine and then go off the rails. we need to pay a close eye to them to make sure they are at the right resource level for managing them, trying not to move them out of the icu too early at the risk they might get worse and have to be moved back to the icu. you want to avoid transferring patients as much as possible and reduce the number of transfers. tom: within our public health system, a beleaguered new york and others are overwhelmed right now, is the movement from an emergency room to the hospital bed, and the prime minister to an intensive care unit, explain the differences of i see you.

explain -- icu. explain the nuances we need to know. lauren: when a patient is moved from the emergency department, they may go to a regular floor bed or the icu. that level of care is important mechanical who need ventilation or higher levels of care. if someone cannot breathe on their own needs to be intubated and mechanically ventilated, which we talked a lot about with these patients, you need the i see you level of care because the staffing is higher -- icu level of care because the staffing is higher and you have the respiratory therapists who need to manage the ventilators and anesthesiologists to manage the amount of medication these

patients require. tom: explaining your view on this debate on the protection of nurses and doctors and indeed, of all hospitals in america. it is a raging debate about getting protective gear in. give us your perspective, please. lauren: absolutely. we absolutely have to keep our medical staff, frontline medical workers healthy because the patients will keep coming whether the doctors and nurses and respiratory therapists are healthy or not. the personal protective is critical to protecting these health-care workers. you need the masks or the personal air. find devices so you can safely the and go and do procedures you need to do to

keep a patient breathing. procedures we do generate aerosol, small products that have the virus in it, so ppe's are critical to keeping the staff safe and the hospital running. so much, lauren sauer with johns hopkins university and their medical system, expert in emergency medicine and affiliated with the bloomberg school of public health. we have much more on "surveillance" and all over the bloomberg television network today. we will be going all over the nation, leading to the jobless claims tomorrow, anticipated to be a grim approximation of the urgency for individuals in america and also for small

business, the financing of small business front and center. we will see of the senate majority leader and the lienor -- leader of the senate can drive forward emergency funding for small businesses as well. in the markets, we have a stronger dollar. it is fractional. with the curve a little bit steeper, a greater fragility then we saw last friday and monday. please stay with us through the day. this is bloomberg. ♪

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alix: germany's historic contraction. could shrinkr gdp -- all divisions, new crisis. eu finance ministers failed to agree on a cohesive response to the crisis. ray dalio calls cash trash, and howard marks says it is time to play offense. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: americas" on this wednesday, april 8. i'm alix steel. we are just moving along, kind of neutral. really going nowhere. volatility, volume really not picking up either. we saw a potential hurt covering rally that is now petering out. the cable rate flipping entered -- flipping into positive territory, t e