>> welcome to "daybreak asia." i am shery ahn in new york. haidi: i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. we are counting you down to asia's major market opens and our top stories this hour, the coronavirus maintains its global grip. infections have topped 1.5 million one week after passing the one million mark. oil extending a rally as russia signals it is ready to cut production. opec and its allies are due to meet later on thursday to discuss a plan to stabilize

prices. a new study warns japan is facing a double digit contraction in the coming months as the coronavirus pandemic slows the economy further. shery: let's get you started with a quick check on how markets are trading. we are seeing key restocks gaining ground for a third consecutive session. we have seen the rbnz come out and say it is open to increasing the size and scope of its program. we are seeing further upside in trading. nikkei to futures up .2%. u.s. futures under a little bit of pleasure but this of course after closing at the highest level in a month and also entering a bull market. up more than 20% over its recent low. wti also gaining ground, up more than 4% above that $26 a barrel level. we have seen a little bit of fluctuation in the oil market. we are headed to the opec-plus meeting on thursday. president trump says there are of --to slow the spread

there are signs that the virus effort is having an impact. in his daily coronavirus briefing, he lashed out against the world health organization again. let's get all the latest from joe sobczyk. the president also talking about a potential phase four stimulus bill coming up later. we have seen the trump administration ask for $250 billion more from congress, but democrats now seeking double that, more than 500 billion dollars. how will this get resolved? joe: it is a little unclear. there are some negotiations going on at this moment. it is leading up to tomorrow morning in washington. have mcconnell wants to munitions proposal for $250 billion boost to the small business aid passed by what is known as unanimous consent. most lawmakers are out of

washington or on a break. this would let them do it without calling everybody back, chucke fact is that schumer, house speaker nancy pelosi, they want my mother additional $250 billion to help local and state governments as well as to help hospitals. on toy have not signed this plan. the treasury secretary wants this done by the end of the week, but it is looking very questionable whether they will be able to accomplish that unless there is some breakthrough before the break, which is scheduled for 11:00 a.m. washington time on thursday. in terms of some of the other things the president covered in the press conference, he was asked again about this potential timetable reopening the economy. do we have a better idea of what it would look like, what evidence it is waiting on?

i understand he would like a big bang reopening for the u.s. joe: that is exactly what he termed it, a big bang. the are still looking at modeling. he has been optimistic that, as have some of these health officials, that some of the early models were perhaps a little overly pessimistic about the number of infections and hospitalizations. the shutdowns that have hit most states in the country have had an effect of flattening out the curve. they say the number of they haveations -- not said when this could happen, but they are looking very closely at whether or not portions of the country were infections that either were past or have not been as widespread, could get

back to normal. this will probably be most -- this will probably be a slower event than some sort of great big bang where everyone goes back to work at once. they are all trying to move towards that direction, and trump most of all is very eager to get that back rolling because he has the presidential election coming up in november and the economy is always a major issue for voters. with this pandemic, the interests of the american public completely switching away from the democratic primaries, and now, we might have a defective democratic nominee. joe: that's right. bernie sanders announced today that he was going to suspend his campaign, making joe biden the presumptive nominee for the party. this will open up avenues for funding for him. i imagine we may as well see

former president barack obama step out and perhaps do some campaigning, although it is going to be tough right now because as you say, attention really is focused on the pandemic and the impact there. so this will be -- continue to be the dominating factor in the presidential race. heen has a clear run where does not have to be concerned about campaigning for some of the primaries that are still yet to come and he can tap some of the resources of the party as well as trying to get some of sanders very fervent supporters behind him in the november election. being that top fundraiser, i wonder how it will be given that they are very fervent supporters. if you are a bernie supporter, you are only a bernie supporter typically, right?

you have seen joe biden use health care insurance subsidies as a platform. is that a logical place to be given the public health pandemic that is gripping the nation right now? joe: that is certainly going to be the issue. that was very much a winning issue for democrats in the 2018 midterm elections. biden has not gone as far as sanders in endorsing the so-called medicare for all, but he will be able to campaign on continuing to expand obamacare, which was a signature issue of the administration in which he served as vice president and did decrease the number of uninsured people in the nation. there will be some -- it will probably have to be some additional tweaks to that position just to attract some of andpeople behind sanders elizabeth warren. but health care is certainly going to be one of the main issues that democrats can be

running on, and they think it is very much a winning issue going up against the trump administration, which tried to obamacare law and many republicans have not expanded medicaid services, which is spread of the pandemic. joe, thank you so much for joining us. joe sobczyk in d.c. with the latest on the democratic campaign. let's get you now to karina mitchell with the first word headlines. karina: as you highlighted a few minutes ago, global cases of the coronavirus infection have topped 1.5 million, just one week after passing the one million benchmark. new york, the u.k., and belgium reported their deadliest days so far. fatalities and new cases are rising again and governments continue to hammer out support

programs. world health organization continues to caution against any easing of virus restrictions. please do not politicize this virus. the differences you have at the national level. exploited, andbe if you want to have many more body bags, then you do it. president xi jinping says china is facing new economic and social challenges as a result of the virus with rising numbers of imported infections and growing threats to growth. state media says he told the politburo to step up policies designed to resume work and boost domestic demand. of thespeeding up investment. india is imposing government spending caps as the virus slows the economy and hurts revenue

collection. the finance ministry says expenditure is under review with the federal cash position under stress from now until june. the environment ministries is being capped at 15% of budget estimates at the start of the current fiscal year. australia has approved a record job rescue plan worth 80 billion u.s. dollars as part of a wider move to shield the economy from the virus. the government says the fallout from the pandemic is unprecedented and the program aims to protect 6 million workers. the government while subsidized wages to the tune of 1500 aussie dollars every two weeks to help businesses keep people in work. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. haidi. still ahead, we will take a look at how the coronavirus may force japan to really

modernize its economy. we are joined by our guest. coming up next, we do have another guest to his preaching patience for long-term investors. she sees more downside when it comes to the aussie equity. this is bloomberg. ♪

-- a strong session on wall street as investors try to assess when the u.s. economy will be able to ramp up again. joining us now is our guest. we did hear from the president to he would love a bid opening of the economy and i -- big bang opening of the economy. so much of this is relying on what the health authorities will be telling us about the numbers, risk of a second and third wave, the spread, and how the infection curve is coming along. i suppose i am just wondering,

what evidence would you need to see to become more bullish? >> thanks, haidi. yes, when there is so much volatility and uncertainty in the markets, it is helpful to look at some of those key gauges that investors are looking for and we are trying to find out where the bottom of this market might be. infectionse is the rate. really, we will only see the market take comfort around this issue when we start to see the curve flattening. we have started to see that already in australia less so in the u.s. the other factors we are looking at, economic data psych employment because this can lead us down onto those secondary economic impacts and also, you know, will lead us to make conclusions around how long the lockdowns will last. and if any easing of containment measures will result in a second wave of rising infection rates. the volatility we have seen in

the market at the moment, and a lot of that has been to the upside. a strong performance from the u.s. embassies overnight. we think the market has been a bit too aggressive to be factoring in that period of uncertainty. in terms of australian stocks, our valuation still as appealing as they were before we saw this moderate recovery? we have the most percent average since- percentagewise 2012. as the window of opportunity narrowing -- is the window of opportunity narrowing? karina: my approach is too invested in quality companies where you can find value and you are right, that is the window that is shrinking and investors are having to be more selective than perhaps was the case in march where there was widespread value across the board. we are looking at being more selective and finding value.

we break it up into two components. we are putting it into quality companies and those are the ones with strong balance, sustainable onlinetive advantages, accounting software, but also, the recovery stories, so stocks where they are more likely to be significantly impacted by a covid-19 shutdown but should rebound faster in a recovery, so things like airports, health care. but examples. the reason why we are particularly keen on australian equities and willing to work harder to find the value is because we think on a relative basis, australia really is better positioned than many regions to emerge from this is in aecause australia better fiscal position going into this and we saw the announcement of the passing of the massive stimulus package. yesterday by the australian government. there is a policy response, 16%

of gdp, so we are seeing a lot thrown at this crisis. also the quality of our health care system is such that it means we have been able to do a good job of containing the virus. we are already stunning to see that curve flattening which means we can get the economy back to work earlier and those earnings retained for some companies. shery: are you at all worried about the broader economy now that we have seen s&p cutting australia's credit rating outlook from stable to negative? lucy: certainly. there is a lot to still be watching here and it is by no means this recovery already spoken for. we are certainly watching those employment seekers because if we do start to see those accelerate , then we are more likely to see an increase in bad debts and that will put a lot of strain on the banks in the financial system that you alluded to. so there certainly -- it is not without challenges, and there is

a lot of pain out there, but we do think that the structure is in place in australia to get us there a little bit faster. in the u.s., we have the s&p 500 entering bull market territory as well. as most of the negative sentiment surrounding this pandemic already priced in? not knowing when this will end, it seems hard to gauge that but markets continue to rise. the volatility that we are seeing both intraday, and across the last few weeks, is making it very hard to read. i do think the rebounds we have seen are quite aggressive for the amount of uncertainty that is still in the markets. around 23%now down from its highs following the rebound that we have seen. it makes itry -- harder for investors to work out

where this bottom is and where we might be more comfortable at investing, but that is why, you know, rather than focusing on that one point, we certainly say to investors that finding the bottom of the market is a process, so we are certainly happy to participate in buying equities around these levels. if we still can see that value, it is not going to be across-the-board because of those rebounds we have seen. have to work harder to find that stock level. certainly, just because we may not be at the bottom of the market, we do not think that is a sound reason to not participate in a gradual process whereby winter, there is cash into the quality stocks where we can. haidi: -- long-term investors? lucy: for long-term investors, certainly one area that we like in the u.s. is the tech stocks. they have certainly held up well.

placete good hiding throughout this crisis, and we expected they can continue to maintain, you know, their earnings momentum, and thrive through this period, as we see the potential winners from this cobit shut down, a lot of the tech companies who can leverage the transition we are making to remote working and remote social interactions from home. we were really seeing that the crisis has accelerated and consolidated what already existed. cloud computing platforms, amazon web services, google cloud, microsoft, zune video, microsoft teams. these are all becoming ingrained into our day-to-day lifestyles, and to an extent that as they are consolidating pre-existing trends, that will continue even after the knocked down -- mr. strictnocked down -- the

lockdown. oruations are generally at below historic multiples at the moment but we do expect that they should be impacted relatively less than the border market -- broader market, so therefore, their earnings risk is lower so they will be positioned to grow. we heard a good example of this. disney plus announced they have reached a 15 million paid subscribers, a strong growth trajectory that is winning from the covid shut down. australian point of view, we are willing to put money to work in the u.s. equities, tech sector, likely to do that on a pitch to basis at the moment because the aussie is near all-time lows. ondi: plenty more to come "daybreak asia." this is bloomberg. ♪

-- the bid for u.s.

airlines is being held up by demands for more detailed financial information. sources have told bloomberg the carriers have been expecting checks to arrive days ago to help avoid mass layoffs. bloomberg's aviation reporter, alan levin, joins us with this bloomberg scoop, so i guess the devil is always in the details, right, when it comes to dispersing these funds? is scrutiny on the airline industry, is it the same as in other industries? or is it different? alan: well, i think the controversy is definitely bigger here than we have seen in other industries. 1.5 weeks ago, when this to trillion dollar aid package was pushed out, there was broad bipartisan support for the airline industry, and in particular, the bill set aside

$29 billion for what was described as payroll support. and otherwise, -- in other words, any airline that accepted this would use the money to pay salaries and not lay anyone off. of thet on the part airlines, the understanding was that there would not be high barriers for receiving this. given a they are being large task list to provide details and that sort of thing, and many of them feel it is onerous and causing lengthy delays. haidi: given that we are not getting this quick cash infusions, what is the financial status of the airlines and are we going to see more bankruptcies? alan: bankruptcy remains to be

seen. i think, clearly, a number of them are teetering on the brink. here in the u.s., passenger zeroic is approaching compared to what it was a year .go the u.s. averaged 2 million to 2.5 million travelers a day to area day ago and now we seeing less than 100,000 a day. in at least some cases, airlines have had to refund cash that people used to pay for tickets when flights were canceled. they are clearly in dire straits. there is no doubt about that. haidi: bloomberg's aviation reporter, alan levin, joining us with the latest pressure on the big airlines, struggling to get that bailout through. let's get you the first business

flash headlines this hour. volkswagen is considering whether to pay out a record dividend worth $3.6 billion or two you some of that money to shore up finances. this as the coronavirus/is demand for cars. ae companies are entitled to payoff and would be disappointed if it were to be delayed. it is fighting to stay liquid. the dividend decision remains -- ramping up and shoppers returning in parts of asia following the coronavirus outbreak. the airport dedicates three quarters to the company. traffic is said to be improving. half of the companies shops have been closed to the pandemic. next, the u.k. prime minister is spending a third night in intensive care. this as u.k. officials draw up plans to extend the nation's lockdown beyond monday. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> "daybreak asia "daybreak asia this is." i am karina mitchell. says it fears shipments and orders may slumped by about one third as the pandemic ravages demand in manufacturing. the wto says the drop could be worse than seen during the financial crisis a decade ago. it is anization says bleak forecast. project trade will fall steeply in every region of the world and across all sectors of the economy. scenario, ouric

economists see the volumes of global trading goods stumbling by 13% in 2020. if the pandemic is not brought under control and government stays to coordinate policy responses, the decline could be 32% or more. says the new study coronavirus spreads through china far faster than previously thought, suggesting more measures will be needed to halt the pandemic. the u.s. reports each person infected early on past the virus onto five others, more than twice the forecast from health authorities in february. more than 1.5 million people have tested positive around the world. meanwhile, hong kong announced a new stimulus package worth 18 billion u.s. dollars as the city's economy deteriorates further amid the virus outbreak. the program includes support for jobs by subsidizing 50% of wages for affected workers over the next six months.

subway operator ntr is being asked to cut fares by 20% amid what the government says is "an unprecedented challenge." facingtudy says japan is a double digit contraction as the coronavirus stalled the economy. all 17 economists in a bloomberg survey see the economy shrinking with all but one forecasting a moderate recovery between july and september. the projections, after shinzo abe declared a state of emergency and launched a record stimulus package. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. shery. shery: let's get you started with a quick check up on how markets are trading at the moment. kiwi stocks gaining ground for a third consecutive session as we heard from the rv and said, saying it is open to increasing the size and scope of its asset purchase program. u.s. futures also turning much higher. we had seen this fluctuate

between gains and losses but it is now in positive territory after the s&p 500 closed at the highest level in a month and the index gained more than 20% since its march low, entering a bull market. nikkei futures also gaining more than 2% at the moment. of course, is coming on the back of that unprecedented record tumulus package, not to mention the declaration of emergency for seven prefectures. goldman sachs not so optimistic about the japanese economy saying they are headed for a record contraction of 25% this quarter. let's turn to europe. boris johnson's health is said to be improving, although he remains in intensive care. the latest comes as the u.k. reported a record number of deaths from the coronavirus. elsewhere in europe, things have been looking better, but it seems some of the optimism of the last few days may have been -- let's get to rishaad salamat it.

u.k. andrt with the the prime minister's health. rishaad: boris johnson is heading for a third night in the critical care unit at st. thomas's hospital where his condition has been described by officials as improving. it comes against this backdrop of officials drawing up plans to extend the lockdown in the u.k., in a bid to control this crisis. britain's national -- has turned bleecker with a record 938 people dying of this disease until tuesday evening. 7097,k. total death is and the nation is heading into the worst of the crisis without its political leader, and a major decision is looming, whether or not to extend or indeed list this knocked down. it is unlikely they will be lifting any seeing soon -- anything soon. they are due for review on monday and ministers are waiting

for infections to peak which is something which is likely to happen in the next six days to eight days, apparently. if it does happen, there is not enough evidence to justify relaxing those restrictions. discussions are ongoing. a formal move has yet to be made. johnson, the boris his -- his impression -- situation has improved. there will be significant pain ahead as well. guys. haidi: what do we have in terms of the latest on this situation elsewhere? in europe, are we seeing signs of the stronger recovery in the previous hotspots like italy and spain? rishaad: indeed. taking a look at spain at the moment, we have got 6180 new infections in the past 24 hours, taking the total to 100 46,690, and this is also -- the death

toll increases something like 750 people dying. it is the biggest increase we have seen since april 4, just a few days ago. the european centers of disease prevention and control is warning that europe should not rush into lifting restrictions anytime soon because they are saying it is all helping to slow the spread of this pandemic. --have got at the moment based on the available evidence, it is currently too early to start lifting all community and physical distancing measures, so at the moment, it seems the lockdown is likely to persist. some of the countries which were looking at using those knockdowns, denmark and austria, are perhaps looking again at the possibility of them being able to do that. divisions within the european union are not helping the situation. finance ministers failing to agree on an economic strategy. we have european finance ministers failing to agree on a

500 early in euro package to mitigate the consequences of the pandemic. italy may well meet support. bonds dropping for a second day on wednesday. that prompted the european central bank president, christine lagarde, to renew her plea for a strong, united fiscal response to the economic impact on this pathogen, and she has been urging governments to get over differences as they prepare for a second round of talks later today, later thursday. christine lagarde saying governments must support each other. she has been pointing out that economic and financial linkages means no country can avoid collateral damage because something else is happening or somewhere off austin the block is suffering. italy is among governments which include potential use of credit lines for the year areas, bailout fund, as well as the wording of any joint name and as themas the we also have driven by divisions in the sense that the dutch and german are very much against a joint test

plan. coronavirus, whereas italy, spain, and france, are in favor of such a thing, so those divisions are continued. we have had these meetings taking place a bit later between european finance ministers and the hope is there will be a united front. rishaad salamat at they are with the latest out of europe. coming up next, tokyo and the areas in state of emergency. half of the japanese economy. what does that mean for japan in the long run? kobayashi joins us for that discussion. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

shery: tokyo and six other prefectures in a state of emergency, account for half of japan's economy. the closure of businesses has fueled concern out but will tumble as much as 20%. let's get more on japan's economic outlook with the wind -- with kobayashi. great to have you with us. really even before the outbreak started, consumption in japan was pretty weak. we had a sales tax hike. so how much more detrimental will this virus outbreak be the japanese economy? thank you for having me, and good morning.

well, private consumption slowdown coupled with weaker investment appetite and exports will certainly track gdp down for japan for 2020. as a yardstick, the financial crisis in 2008 resulted in 9% negative growth in real gdp in the first quarter of 2009. considering the gravity of covid-19, the impact could be larger. gdp such as in the second quarter could potentially fall as much as 10% to 20% per quarter. downturn of this magnitude continues for two consecutive quarters, we could see 5% to 10% per and i'm drop in gdp for 2020. forer annum drop in gdp 2020. shery: we are seeing some pressure in order to get purchases ahead of a more severe lockdown of these cities and prefectures. are absolutely right. in the short run, retail

benefits -- retail was up by 1.7% year-over-year. them buying up staples from toilet paper to rice for the sotloff down and now that the state of emergency has been announced, there will be a little bit more of a rush to purchase. that performance varies by channel. drugstores did well followed by supermarkets and convenience stores, but it is devastating for the department stores because they were the first to go from the consumer's mind. the long run, the negative mpact -- howi: i am wondering resilient you find japanese retailers when it comes to online commerce infrastructure. that seems to be where you need to be to be able to ride out this crisis. nobuko: right. consumers, e-commerce

penetration, it is actually lower compared to other nations, and this is due to the convenience of the physical stores and so forth. storest said, the retail and some consumer companies have robust e-commerce infrastructure and this pandemic would give it consumers behaviors towards e-commerce for sure. one about the idea of animal spirits? we know how hard it was for the boj, for the government, for broader japanese piety, to climb out of that deflationary state of mind, right? guess, a question effect psychologically does a crisis like this have on can sentiment? -- consumer sentiment? nobuko: it is hard to tell but it is definitely very negative.

the consumer sentiment was already week before the pandemic following the sales tax hike in october, and now, it is almost still veryit is early, but the state of emergency could impact gdp by 1% if the economy's estimate, which is ¥5 trillion. and this is driven by the pulling down of private consumption which is 60% of gdp. shery: could there be a silver lining in that some parts of the japanese economy will be forced to implement structural reforms? nobuko: exactly. i think the silverlining might be there because a shock of havemagnitude might structural reform in japanese industries, which is the elusive third arrow of abenomics. we may see a trend of

consolidation in fragmented industries, in restructuring of conglomerates. this will lead to industry rationalization and improve productivity. deregulation will also happen. it will allow for more online remote health care services. if such structural reform and is kick started by the pandemic, in the long run, japan may emerge on the others as a stronger, more modernized nation. haidi: hydroxychloroquine -- nobuko kobayashi joining us. thank you for your time. lots more other conversations coming up on bloomberg tv. our coverage continues of the coronavirus outbreak and the impact to economies. our guest joins us later. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: the australian government -- parliament, has passed a jobs rescue program which should help about 6 million workers stay employed. paul allen is in sydney and joins us. it is one thing to pass a package. how long will these expensive measures be in place for? paul: it could be quite some time. scott morrison said it could

last a lot longer than the six months that this subsidy plan is going to be in place for. this will cost 80 billion u.s. dollars, 130 billion australian. that will pay employers to keep their workers on up to 70% of the median wage but total government spending now throughout this crisis, 320 billion dollars. that is more than 16% of gdp. and more spending likely as the crisis continues and we hit the recovery phase. we have the budget delayed until october. it was meant to be next month and that should see the largest deficit since world war ii, and of course, we were reporting yesterday that s&p got to australia on a negative outlook for that aaa rating. likely tore is still be a big uptick in next week's jobless numbers. is there a risk to the property market? it is a-- paul: worthwhile question because house prices in australia is

very elevated. household that is twice what it is in the united states. allowancejob keeper may not cover repayments for your average worker in sydney or melbourne. banks have been stepping up to a degree, offering repayment holidays to help use the burden but they will not be forgoing interest during that period. ok.banks should be a recent stress test from the regulator saw that even with on a pointman at 11%, which could be possible for march, they found the reduction of capital happened but that would stay above the regulatory minimum for tier one capital. real estate agents to report a drop in activity but there's no signs of panic selling. one agent i keep in contact with sold 19 properties including one a little over $3 million. they are not feeling the impact yet.

shery: let's get you the latest numbers out of china breaking right now when it comes to coronavirus cases. reporting 63 additional cases. 61 of those cases were imported. china saying that there have been 56 symptomatic coronavirus cases. when it comes to the number of deaths -- 63 additional coronavirus cases as the number of global cases top 1.5 million. the who cautioning countries theirt lowering guards. working around the clock to save patients of the coronavirus. bloomberg spoke to lauren sauer, assistant professor of the emergency medicine at john hopkins university, to discuss how hospitals are dealing with the pandemic. lauren: i think the key is to actually not walking to the emergency room unless you are absolutely critically ill. we want to keep people out of the emergency department to make sure that is there for the

patients who need critical resources the most. you will see sick patients in the emergency department now. a lot of emergency to parents are separating patients, using tense to separate out -- tents to reduce the risk of spread in waiting rooms and things like that. >> we have seen in the last couple days the beginning of an understanding of this virus with the abs and also to send the prime minister of the united kingdom. but for each and every virus patient, there seems to be a point where they get better, and then they get worse as well. what have you learned with the johns hopkins medical team about the ebb and flow of the virus, the day-to-day of this pathogen? lauren: one of the things we have seen is that patients have to be watched very carefully. their oxygen saturation can look like it will be fine and then

can really go off the rail. we have seen these patients -- we need to keep a close eye on them to have the right resource level for managing them, trying not to move them out of the icu into a step down unit two early with the risk that they might get worse and then have to be moved back to the icu. we want to avoid transferring patients as much as possible and reduce the number of transfers. >> within our public health system, there's other geographies across this country that are overwhelmed right now. it is a movement from the emergency room to a hospital bed, and then the prime careters with an intensive unit. explain the differences with icu. explain the nuances we need to know. is movedhen a patient from the emergency department, depending on how sick they are, they may go up to the icu, and

that icu level of care is really important for these patients who may need mechanical ventilation or other higher level care. that mechanical ventilation is really important, so if someone cannot read on their own and will need to be intubated and mechanically ventilated, which we talked a lot about with these patients, you need that i see you level of care because the staffing is higher, so you have more nurse to patient -- higher nurse to patient ratio, higher level of critical care doctor's, and you have the respiratory therapist who needs to manage the ventilators, and you have the anesthesiologist to manage the levels of medication that these patients require. >> explained to us your view on this debate of the production of nurses, the protection of doctors, and indeed, of all hospitals in america. it is a raging debate right now get -- -- about getting protective gear in.

give us your perspective please. lauren: absolutely. we have to keep our medical staff, our frontline health care workers, healthy, because the patients are going to keep coming whether the physicians, nurses, respiratory therapist, and everyone else who keeps the hospital running, is there or not. the personal protective care ppe, is equipment, critical to protecting these health-care workers. we need the masks or the personal air purifying devices so that you can safely come and go from these patients rooms, you can safely do the procedures you need to do to keep them breathing. a lot of our procedures we do for these respiratory patients generate aerosols or small particles that have the virus in it so the ppe is critical to keeping health care workers safe, and the hospital running.

>> that was lauren sauer at johns hopkins university. the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health is supported by michael bloomberg, founder of bloomberg lp and bloomberg selling through. let's get you a quick check of the latest business flash headlines this hour. reversed strong sales growth. comparable sales fell 3.5% in the first quarter, plunging in march after rising more than 7% in the first two months. pandemic is hitting demand with some customers asking to delay orders. some companies in the auto centers and construction sectors delayd -- they sought to or reduce contracts. there will be stockpiles which may track on prices already, sitting at four-year lows. softbank is reeling from another corporate below as the indian places thousands of

employees on indefinite for low amid the outbreak. they are laying off staff around the world as well as in india although it has not given any numbers and is not considering formal job cuts. shery: let's get you a quick check up on how markets are closing. we are seeing kiwi stocks gaining ground for a third consecutive session while futures in sydney are also gaining gr ground more than 2%. heard that the opec-plus meeting will discuss an output kind of 10 million barrels per day. nikkei futures also rising more than 2%. ofdo have the declaration state of emergency in seven prefectures. kospi futures under a little bit of pressure. we have the bok policy decision coming up. analyst very split on whether or not the bok will follow through with another rate cut after their emergency reduction to the

lowest level on record. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ these days you need faster internet that does all you

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[ whines ] can your internet do that? xfinity xfi can because it's... ...simple, easy, awesome. [ barking ] from the global headquarters in new york. maker -- asia's major markets have just opened for trade. hour,op stories this coronavirus maintains the grip. infections have topped to 1.5 one million in one week.

opec and allies are due to meet later thursday to discuss a plan to stabilize the crisis. as the pandemic hits every aspect of business, a bleak warning says global trade could plunge more than it did during the financial crisis. japan, south korea, and australia are coming online. down 1/10ing online of 1%. more pressure from topics, down 4/10 of 1%. this after four sessions of gains. positive sentiment across the week and we have a record several package, and pre-factors are under a state of emergency. japanese yen holding steady against the u.s. dollar. look at korea. we are waiting the be ok rate decision. it is split on what the bank of korea will do.

this after the emergency 50 basis point rate cut we saw in march. 1.8% ahead ofing the rate decision. the question is doing whatever it takes now or taking -- we are seeing some upside when it comes to trading. the last trading session for the week, a long week ahead. good friday and easter sunday, some markets will be closed. financials, we will keep an eye on them after a downgrade for australian sovereign debt weighing. the aussie dollar to watch strengthened in the overnight

session. we are close to a three way -- three week high. let's get more on the markets. mark is with us. let's talk about oil. it is driving sentiment more broadly across global markets overnight. our expectations too high going into the opec meeting will be a political resolution to the issue? >> this market wants to trade higher, it seems like. obviously most people are supplied to be agreed by opec-plus but it should be irrelevant. impact has been up to 35 million barrels a day and i think the market is driven

by hope at the moment. we note etf's action is driving a lot of the demand -- we know that etf action is driving a lot of the demand. economic activity will resume rapidly and i think they might be overly optimistic but in the short term if they deliver the barrels they are talking about it might be enough to boost the market short-term. ultimately i think by late april thearly may, we will see oil market under severe pressure again because demand has been immense and supply reaction is not appropriate. >> when it comes to trading, how positive is the set up? s&p is back in bull territory. >> i think the price action is

exceptionally positive. not just phenomenal returns. about how high we thought the s&p 500 would get and we agreed around 2800 level might be appropriate. returns have not been surprising but the way they have happened, in terms of we are seeing positive price action in the face of negative news, for example not just trading on the turns of the coronavirus narrative. when we have seen fatalities rise, the s&p is still trading well. so short-term it is positive. weekend, ithe long looks like the market will still trade positively.

i am longer-term negative on equity markets but that will be further down the line. we have seen small moves across the fx side. is volatility with currency easing? quite exciting for fx traders , the market was dead the last three years and had become boring. have volatility and a fundamental shift in terms of rate driving differentials and monetary policy coming in behind it. so volatility is easing but we are still above the levels from the last three years. the fact to watch is that the high-yield or's like --

lira haveike turkish more pain to come. in a few other currencies low that have really volatility and will remain the paragon of stability for the next few months. >> mark, thank you for joining us from singapore. let's get to karina mitchell for the headlines. topped 1.5ases have million. new york, u.k., and belgium have reported their deadliest days so far. governments continue to hammer out support programs. world health organization cautions against easing of virus restrictions. hong kong announced a new stimulus package worth almost 18

billion u.s. dollars as the economy deteriorates amid the outbreak. the program include support for jobs by subsidizing 50% of wages for affected workers of the next six months. 20%is being asked to cut by amid what the government is calling in unprecedented challenge. a new study says japan faces a double digit contraction this quarter as coronavirus stalled the economy. all 17 economists in a survey see the economy shrinking with all but one forecasting a moderate recovery between july and september. this comes after shinzo abe declared a state of emergency and launched a record stimulus package. australia has approved a job rescue plan worth 80 billion euros dollars as part of a wider move to shield the economy from the virus. they say the fallout from the pandemic is unprecedented in the program aims to protect 6

million workers. it will subsidize wages every two weeks to help businesses keep people working. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. haidi: still ahead, korea facing a difficult decision over whether to take further monetary policy action now or hold onto some ambulation for later. -- some ammunition for later. plus, more on the outlook for al with russia displaying willingness to cut production. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> bank of korea faces a

difficult decision whether to take further action now or hold back over a long haul fight against the pandemic and global recession. economists are split but our next guest says they have room to cut again. she joins us from toronto. give us the rationale for and against the cut and what you think they should do going forward. >> the south korean economy is in a difficult spot. domestic demand is weak because of the virus outbreak at home and external demand is weak because the rest of the world is fighting the pandemic. so i see another interest rate cut in the near future. the question is if it will take place today or later, but i think prompt action would be the most effective outcome. it is possible policymakers choose to wait and see how the

measures implemented in march, how they are impacting the economy. but it is really a difficult cut,ion, to cuts or not to -- to cut or not to cut. given you say they have room to act, will they need to use unconventional tools, and what would that look like? fed has that the u.s. cut rates so aggressively, it gives the bank of korea some leeway to ease policy further and it looks like korea's inflation is coming down quite rapidly, so that is another fact of giving them more to ease policy. i think they will likely focus on rate cuts in the near future. there could be, for example, an introduction of further loans to

nonbank finance institutions. i could come today. but in terms of easing and other unconventional measures, i think they are not there yet and they probably want to see how implemented measures are and howg and how the -- deep the economic recession is going to be. >> is there a close to perfect strategy central banks should be using? it seems to be a really hard call as to whether they should be saving ammunition, keeping their powder a little dry because this could be a long haul. >> yes. that is the biggest question. how theng depends on virus outbreak behaves, how long

and how deep the recession will be. so there is no perfect solution, by any means. i think a combination of decisive monetary stimulus and decisive fiscal stimulus is the best way forward so once the outbreak stabilizes, the right elements are in place to allow the economy to recover fairly quickly. when you see markets seeing a little rebound and there seems to be positivity and the hope that the curve is flattening across parts of the world, at the same time, look at economic forecasting, for example the u.s., the chance of a recession in the next 12 months is 100% according to our data. optimismre too much about what the economic recovery will look like?

not only do you see economies who have reopened after dealing with the pandemic, there is also concern about what is kind of shock does to a recovery. -- will it be a recovery were you see output that does not come back and permanent distortions? overnight in the north american session there was a bit of a boost because of stipulation about the timing of real painting the u.s. -- reopening the u.s. economy and they were talking about progress made toward oil production cuts and there is a lot of stimulus in the system. so that has boosted sentiment. in terms of the recovery dynamics, i think the second quarter of the year will be the most difficult for most advanced

economies. some asian countries probably impacte biggest adverse in the first quarter, for example china, now they are showing early signs of recovery. so it is not fully even. asia was leading the difficulties and then the is behind and will have a big dip in production and output in the second quarter. but i think given the actions taken by policymakers, if the outbreak stabilizes within the next couple of months, we could see a fairly solid recovery in the second half of the year, but at the same time, there is a substantial risk of a second infection, so a v shaped recovery might be a little bit too optimistic, that is what i think.

>> all right. pandemic is also taking its toll on u.s. policy. body -- government bernie sanders has left his campaign, leaving joe biden the presumptive economy. -- presumptive nominee. hard to makeking nomineehand over to our a really muscular infrastructure. that is what we have been working on for the past two years and i am confident and proud of the fact that we are going to hand over to the vice president the most expensive

campaign infrastructure the dnc has ever built for a nonincumbent presidential candidate. pandemices the influence your ability to create that infrastructure, especially when it comes to fundraising? our tactics have changed but the goals have not. diligently more work -- digitally. we have changed thousands of digital organizers. we have been in the digital space for some time and we will continue to do this. we continue to raise money aggressively because we want to make sure we can implement our battleground buildup. we have already gotten organizers in place in key battleground states. we are not knocking on doors, no

doubt, but we are actively ramping up our campaign battleground infrastructure, because we know that we have 209 days until the election. so we are changing the tactic, but we are not changing the goal. struck by what you just said about not being able to knock on doors. decide tos states delay or postpone primaries, we get closer and closer to the deadline for delegate selections. are you considering changing your roles to have states primary post the deadline in order to get counted at the convention? >> the rules and bylaws committee is working closely with the states that have been changeby the pandemic to their primary dates, and we will continue to do that.

we are going to begin the process of working really closely with the vice president so that the momentum he has built through his , he hasve run incredibly broad appeal and we and werk with the states will build a remarkable general election infrastructure so that we can win the presidency and up and down the ballot. >> the convention has already been delayed to august. tois -- is it realistic think and august convention will be at play, or will you have to consider things like delegates voting virtually? >> i am looking forward august. we moved the convention five weeks back so that we can

maximize the probability of success. i think it was a good move. our goal is to make sure we put on a really impressive show in milwaukee, where we showcase our values. we will make sure we will have safety as number one. health att put public risk, unlike the other side. i am confident we can put on an exciting, muscular convention where we showcase our values, our nominee, and i look forward to having the vice president talk about his values and commitment to everyday americans as we move forward. dnc chairman tom perez. up next, former ibm ceo breaks down the supply chain risks are

companies among the pandemic and what they can do to mitigate the damage. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> as countries around the world try to mitigate the economic fallout of the pandemic, japan is earmarking more than $2 billion of the stimulus package specifically to help companies shift production out of china. i spoke with the former ibm ceo and asked him how important it is for companies have risk competitiveness in addition to cost competitiveness. >> because of the history of what was going on in supply chains, as people mobilize them, it was a combination of cost, labor cost, and quality. war and now trade

it has accelerated. now you have to add resiliency and security to the supply chain. resiliency has nothing to do with location. one of the things i love about the supply chain, i've been working on this think tank for 10 years and lived it at ibm, but have you ever seen the supply chain, the big data and models, it's unbelievable. but the point about resiliency, it is not necessarily one country over the other. it is about where you can build redundancy so if you have a pandemic or national disaster or crisis, how you can adjust real-time mechanisms. it is also about security in the supply chain. you have to make sure all elements of the chain are from a and protection perspective

secure and resilient. intow do you build this the supply chain? we are talking about tertiary players and you need to focus on critical players in the system, right? teamu sound like a supply expert. i will put you in my think tank. yes. you have to go through all of the elements and how they connect with the supply chain. the lowest level of the supply chain could be a small company supporting a primary supplier and you do not have visibility. so the first thing you need is visibility. there are simple things that people are adopting, consumer technologies around conductivity because people cannot get to work. so take the partners in the supply chain. let's assume you are using consumer-based connectivity technology. like a zoom. -- like zoom.

as youure infrastructure communicate with partners. that was the former ibm ceo speaking earlier. let's look at currencies.

>> we project trade in 2020 will fall steeply in every region of acrossld and basically all sectors of the economy. >> let's take a quick check of how markets are trading. aroundgaining -- losing half a percent. this coming as we see the state of emergency in seven different prefectures across japan and

retracing last week's decline around 19,000 level. kospi gaining 1.5%. rate decisionbok this hour or next and a on what will happen. they may stay after following the rate cut. asx 200 gaining 1.5%. gold producers falling. ozzie bonds steady. we have seen s&p cutting countries credit rating outlook negative. up a quarter percent after the s&p 500 entered bone markets again. u.s. dollar down 1/10 of 1%. 10 year treasuries set for the first weekly drop in four. oil extending. brent up 2.7%. we are headed to the opec-plus

meeting thursday. cut will discuss and output of 10 million barrels per day. is the cattle driving markets higher. new study says the coronavirus spreads through china faster than thought, suggesting more measures will be needed to halt the pandemic. the u.s. reports each person infected early on probably pass the virus on to five others, more than twice the forecast in february. more than 1.5 million people have tested positive around the world. new data shows airline flights slumping in april as the virus hammers travel. far fewer planes are flying across the country. u.s. airlines are painting a complete picture with some say they expect to cut as much as

90% in the next coming months. they are suing for government aid. the race for the white house is two as sanders pulls out of the campaign. joe biden is the presumptive .ominee for the election sanders says he will remain on the ballot and continue to try to collect delegates in order to push the democrats closer to his vision. google and facebook have u.s. approval for data cable but on the condition they do not carry copies to hong kong. the justice department says there is significant risk a direct connection between the u.s. in hong kong would jeopardize national security. the project was announced four years ago. google is allowed to operate as part of the cable linking the u.s. to taiwan. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. >> the world health organization

firing back at recent criticism over the handling of the outbreak, most notably from trump. the director general says the u.s. and china need to stop publicizing the outbreak. stephen engle tracks the development and joins us on the line from hong kong. again trying to shift the blame of her why the --. was so late to respond blame over why the u.s. was so the to respond, blaming world health organization. what did they say? >> trump doubling down on his criticism on the world health organization, basically saying the u.s. has given millions in funding last year compared to china's amount and they've been treating unfairly and he is threatening an investigation. but the world health fired back, giving

a stern rebuke of not only trump and the u.s., but also china. he accuses them of trying to politicize this and that they need to work together and show honest leadership. he urged all nations and the media to stop trying to divide people. he says if you do not want any more body bags, you will refrain from politicizing it. no using covid-19 to score political points. donald trump earlier this week blasted them, saying they blew it and gave bad advice on travel restrictions and he threatened to cut funding and claims they favor china. let's look at the timeline. this will tell us what they have done. when china first reported the first outbreak of an unknown

--ease, it was december 13 december 31 two the world health organization office in china. guidance to members on how to test on january 10. they declared a global health emergency on january 30. a pandemic on march 12. since then, confirmed cases worldwide have surged 12 fold. soared 19 times. a day after india was said to be considering a partial lifting of their lockdown, we hear the lockdown will be extended. what do we know? it throws into sharp relief the cap -- the challenge of a country that thinks they have things under control, even trump was saying he would love to see a reopening soon. >> it is a tough choice.

lift the lockdown and help people, especially the daily wage workers in india who were struggling badly, or keep the plant down and prevent the spread. india has over 5000 cases, highly underreported probably. deaths are 178 and we are learning the most populist state will seal off 15 districts worst affected, including the prime minister's constituency. the state has 326 cases and three deaths but this is a population of 200 million people. so we will be a challenge. -- so it will be a challenge. >> stephen engle with the latest. secretary treasury says the u.s. needs to spend whatever it takes now to stem the economic impact of damage or

damage will be greater later. he says the stimulus so far has not been enough. say that the whole need for response is immediate in the sense that you shut the economy down, we need to make sure businesses are there when we open back up and if we take too much time to get things perfect, which is always my preference, i would love to be say things were perfect, we will look back and regret it because there will be somebody business failures that the length of the recovery is extended and the number of unemployed lingers at a high level. on behalf of american workers in a small businesses, we need them to go back to work when health conditions permit.

so time is of the essence. i thought the funds put in were helpful but not adequate at the time, when you look at the number of businesses that will need help. so i am not surprised that they are looking for providing more. add with theing to comments i am making is why -- is when the green light comes, there has to be cash flow to reopen. a need toill be continue assistance a little longer than the crisis, just like we will need to help people who are unemployed with extended benefits, food stamps, snap, and assistance. as long as the economy is lagging behind because of the health crisis. more stimulus is done, the government is going to have to borrow a lot of money. inalready had $2 trillion the last package. that means a lot of issues for

the treasury. might it change the way it is done? should we reconsider an ultra long bond or a war bond? trump says we are at war with the virus. should we be thinking about different sorts of issuances coming out of the u.s. treasury? openingnk we need to be -- hoping to use in whole yield curve and using the finance of debt in the most efficient way. i have never been persuaded the 50 year bond is likely to have the type of deep market that could be relied on. it feels like a dangerous time to run experiments on a major scale with a new concept. we have very well developed demand and i think the for the u.s. debt will remain strong in the economy we are in, as long as it is clear we are responding to the crisis and will have the resilience to bounce back.

i think the place where i am worried about the financial shortfall being crushing without federal assistance will have terrible consequences is at the state and local level. many of them operate with balanced budget requirements and if they cannot fill the hole in the budget because of sales tax revenue being off or gasoline tax revenues being off or income taxes being off or delayed, they will start cutting back on vital services, canceling things like rotor programs and that will and thatoad programs will have macroeconomic consequences. i continue to worry about the long-term sustainability of our deficit and debt. i do not believe in this moment if we are penny wise and pound foolish, it will be good. we will need to spend what it takes to come out of this healthy where economic costs in the long run will be greater in

the deficit will be greater. with financing, we need to be iseful as treasury typically is -- in going into markets to make sure we maintain the depth and liquidity for what is a large increase in federal bonds. we have breaking news out of south korea. the bank of korea deciding to leave the key interest rate unchanged as the record low zero point 75%. nine out of 17 economists expected them to stand pat. it was a close decision. the rest thought they would cut rates to another record low but ammunitiond to keep following the 50 basis point rate cut and measures announced in march. they have a policy board change coming up in april.

four of the seven members will wille april 30th and we keep an ion what direction they take. bank of korea saying they will expand eligible collateral for open market operations. we have seen them pledging unlimited liquidity and heard the governor last week talk about extending loans directly to troubled financial companies if the situation worsens. now saying they will expand eligible collateral for open market operations. plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪

korea keeping the .ate at the record low 0.75% analysts were divided in terms of the rate cut, especially after the emergency 50 basis point rate cut we saw in march. already the announced qb like measures at that point. now the bank of korea leading -- leaving the rate at 0.7 5% saying they will expand eligible collateral for open market operations. we have seen them talk about extending loans directly to

problematic financial companies, not to mention unlimited liquidity through june agreements. add aaying they will korea housing finances to outright purchase as they decided to leave the key rate unchanged at .75%. take a look at how markets are trading. kospi gaining 1.7%. korean won gaining ground against the u.s. dollar at the 1214 level. more rebounding risk has advertised numbers, s&p 500 just entered full territory, rising more than 20%. higher,ures continue gaining 3/10 of 1% after the s&p 500 closed at the highest level in a month.

dollar index under a little pressure and 10 year yield is unchanged. oil continues to move higher. ahead of the opec-plus meeting thursday, let's get a look at the headlines. aluminum producer says the pandemic is hitting and some customers are delaying orders. some companies in auto and construction are seeking to delay contracts. -- aluminum demand might drop as much as 30%. volkswagen is considering whether to pay out local dividends worth $3.6 billion or use some of the money to shore up site -- shore up the finances as coronavirus cuts the demand

for cars. say they are fighting to stay liquid and fluid. rise ahead ofto the meeting of the top producers coronavirusuts as cuts energy demand. katie baize joins us from washington. we thoughtesolution we would not get over the past few weeks? >> here is hoping. this has been a dynamic couple weeks starting last friday with president trump suggesting there was a deal and here we are, one week later, it is not necessarily clear the deal was most in the i think oil patch are hoping this is the political resolution the

president alluded to last week. i think it remains to be seen. a lot hangs in the balance around exactly how the u.s. does the bond and i think the white house has played their cards close to the vest on this one. >> is the u.s. likely to come to the table? there is hardly any point in thinking if the other producers will have any longevity if the u.s. does not also agree to cuts. >> excellent question. deal witho think the the broader contingent, countries like russia, canada, brazil that are not opec members hinges on the u.s. there is no real deal that does

not include commitments from the u.s.. we have spent a lot of time the last couple weeks digging into the concept of what does a cut look like for the u.s. concept and we have heard in the last few days that u.s. producers have already cut capex cuts and that is not the same as holding back production. russia pointed that out today. he will not care enough water with the opec plus contingent. the needs to be something from the u.s.. we are seeing conciliatory signals out of the u.s. and we metastasizeic that as into a genuine agreement. the u.s. has already cut and prices are market driven. what will it take to force u.s.

producers to make a move? they need cash, rate? -- they need cash, right? >> absolutely. something that gets overlooked is we had this diverse industry and there was a lot of private equity funding and commitments producers make, all of the debt -- how does a producer who has debt service cut production? production ising like going bankrupt so you have complex requirements to make it difficult for small producers to cut production while larger producers see no real economic necessity near-term and they seem to be the ones holding the

ear.house's is going toa discuss a cut of 10 million barrels per day week. what can we realistically expect? cut is big.n barrel there is a lot of media coverage over whether it is enough. i think the game you are trying to play is to delay the crunch moment where global storage is full and there is no more places to put the last barrel of crude. that is important from a pricing perspective. is zero dollars per barrel environment so you want to extend the runway for global storage is much as possible. 10 million barrel a day cut with a larger amount of it coming out

that is very large, not the same as the demand reduction we have seen because of coronavirus but it makes a difference in the global market by extending the amount of time we have. thank you very much. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> bank of korea kept interest rates unchanged at the record low of .75%. kathleen hays joins us. economists were split on what would happen but they decided to hold onto some ammunition. kathleen: it is so easy in a way to make a case for a rate cut. korean economy has not been hit as hard as others but it is expected to slow down or contract for a while. of 17 economists surveyed by bloomberg thought they would make another cut of 25 basis points after the 50 basis point cut at the emergency meeting

last month. i had a chart so you could see .here the key rate was suggesting,rkets not economists, who were divided. the economy may contract. inflation moving away from target. this is an export driven economy. the 11th biggest in the world in south korea and the fourth biggest exporter. so many trading partners are going into lockdown like japan, or really curtailed their demands. so people were figuring they were looking closely at whatever governor lee says about the economy when he speaks in the next half-hour. >> that was kathleen hays. that is just about it for

daybreak asia. china open is next. we are looking at a mixed session when it comes to asian stocks. all eyes are on the opec-plus meeting to see whether a supply cut can be reached. ♪

>> it is not :00 a.m. in beijing. shanghai and singapore. welcome to bloomberg markets china open. i'm tom mackenzie. david: i'm david ingles. we are counting down to the open in china and here in hong kong. calls for a coordinated response to coronavirus. infections have topped 1.5 million one week after passi