♪ nejra: good morning from london, i'm never hate -- nejra cehic. this is "daybreak: europe." and the u.k. report their deadly estate so far. u.k. prime minister boris johnson remain stable in hospital. oil extends gains ahead of today's opec-plus meeting as top producers move closer to a deal to curve output. russia says it's ready to cut by 1.6 moving barrels a day. ubs expects to report first

quarter net profit at around 1.5 billion dollars. the dividend for 2019 will be paid into stages. rival credit suisse will delay half its devin. welcome to "daybreak: europe." as we head toward the long easter weekend, all states warning the global economy facing a $5 trillion hit over the next two years, greater than the output of japan. and they say global output not return to pre-virus levels until 2022. , futures have been moving around a bit overnight. we're seeing a bit of green on the screen in asia for the fourth session. a bit of a mixed picture. the 10 year yield dropping almost three basis points. foot, and front russia said it is ready to put it screwed output by about 15%

payment let's get an update on the coronavirus, claiming another daily record number of u.s.ms in the the global tally now stands at more than 1.5 million infections and around 88,000 deaths. american expert anthony found she said the stoxx -- the start of a turnaround could come after this week. ross, great to have you with us today. let's start with the global fauci'sf cases and dr. comments. what do we know? saying the start of the tournament could come after this week, and that's in line with what officials in line with what officials and other countries have been saying. that hope is well that the peak may come in several countries in seven-hit days from now. -- 7-10 days from now.

cases have gone up by a half million in less than a week and even as the death rates have scaled back in several countries including the u.k. and the u.s., you cases are also going up again in a couple of places, including italy and spain. so you get a couple of days of what -- couple of days of what a slowing in cases and hour seeing fresh in take -- fresh cases in some places. that has to be a cause of concern for health officials who want to see a trend occurring in multiple days. and particularly for the deadliesth saw its day so far. prime minister boris johnson is still in intensive care. what have we learned in terms of when the u.k. lockdown might end ?

some officials saying it might go on for weeks, and we are in the third week now. >> that's right, and the lockdown period technically ends on monday. what we're hearing from u.k. idea is keeping the lockdown on for at least another three weeks with no restrictions lifted at all. that's if the death toll continues to rise. and partly because there is a major decision to make in a country that is still worried about its leader, boris, who spent his third night in the critical care unit. officials are saying his condition is improving and he is relatively stable, but he remains in icu and will probably remain in the hospital for some time yet.

so his government still able to make decisions, but without ports -- without boris johnson at the helm. nejra: and the exit strategy seems some weeks away, but there are discussions over what that would look like in europe. germany and italy are debating over and into their lockdown. what is being discussed, and how exactly would it work, given that we haven't seen the peak yet in italy or spain? again, this is something there are tentative deep -- to discuss, how and when to end the lockdown. drawbacks is to , the mainls closed thing is probably to get people working again and to get economies moving again and to live some of the other restrictions, some talking about keeping schools all -- closed

all the way through to september to the start of the next academic year. looking at places where the virus doesn't appear to be as strong, and can you start to resume operations there in terms of businesses, factories and so on. the manufacturing area in italy , so atn hardest hit least to get small businesses moving again, that seems to be the focus, even as schools are expected to say -- to stay close for a longer period nejra: and this week we had reports of may 4 being the potential date for easing of the lockdown. in spain, the prime minister will ask parliament for approval to extend the state of emergency through april 25. , rosalind.o much

let's get to the first word news. the prime minister has been a third night in critical care where we are told his condition is improving. officials are drawing up plans to extend the lockdown in a bid to control the u.k.'s growing corroon -- coronavirus crisis. predict- top scientists it will move into its peak next week. russia says it is ready to cut by 1.6 moving barrels a day, about 15% of its total output. an opec-plus meeting is set to be held later today to discuss the cuts. u.s., former vice president joe biden is the democrat party's presumptive nominee for president after senator bernie sanders did his run, thanking supporters for helping to create and precedented campaign. he said he will stay on the ballot to help push the democrats closer to his vision. the european central bank president renewed her plea for a

strong physical response to the coronavirus, urging governments to get over their differences as they prepare for a second round of talks. her comments were in an op-ed published in newspapers across europe a day after finance ministers failed to agree on a rescue package. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. let's take a look at some of the key evens to watch out for today. at 12:30 p.m. u.k. time we will get the account of the march meeting, investors will scour the minutes for hints on any further action to tackled the further economic fallout from the coronavirus. we will get the u.s. initial jobless names. it would be the second highest reading on record. around five up like p.m. we will get an update from the british government at their daily coronavirus reaping. prime minister boris johnson's health is likely to be a key

topic of conversation. this is bloomberg. ♪

nejra: good morning from london, this is bloomberg "daybreak: europe." let's get to the risk radar. green on the screen in asia for a fourth day in a row. the s&p 500 yesterday in a technical bull market. gains. point to further

the 10 year yield dipping slightly, a bit of steadiness in the dollar and oil continuing its gains ahead of the opec-plus meeting today. turning to the fed, minute show the central bank was buying time when it made an emergency rate cut in mid-march, so it could introduce new programs to fight the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. policymakers saw gathering downside risk as warranting a forceful response according to a record of their unscheduled meeting. later today we get u.s. jobless claims for the weakening april 4 and the number is expected to be extraordinarily high again come up to 5 million people filing for unemployment benefits. great to have you with us this morning, thanks for joining. the s&p 500 in a technical bull market, you are overweight u.s. equities. is that despite the fact that a lot of people are saying we are

yet to find a bottom in the u.s. equity market? yes, it's really hard to find the bottom, so that's not what we are trying to do. trying to focus on slightly longer term investment horizon and try to really look at the opportunities that have been presented from recent markets dislocations. if you think about our look about two weeks ago, it's largely on the back of the bulk quality action were seeing come through, and were not just talking about monetary policy. we are seeing more detail from the minutes overnight and also physical space. and inve acted promptly a coordinated way and there is room for more as well. to regions,ng

countries where there is a huge amount of willingness coming to combat the coronavirus, and lastly the reason we like u.s. equities right now is there a more companies than others in the market. on the quality aspect, what are investors saying to you at the moment in terms of what they are prioritizing? is it that they are looking for balance street -- balance sheet strength? is it simply that they want liquidity in the portfolio? blackrock, we do a weekly investor survey as part registrationt pole. currently, three quarters of those clients across all

countries in client segments are telling us they are either looking to buy at the first sign of stabilization. there is a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines that has been created during the market volatility and dislocation. all this cash is been sitting on the sideline for a long time because of worries around -- with markets having corrected, they are now being tempted to be deployed. so clients are telling us they want to act on the first sign of stabilization. around newsd come of the virus coming under control or data stabilizing. definitely a sign that investors being reach in this environment, being able to

grow your earnings and even in times of economic stress. we've seen at this point in the late cycle, quality tends to do well. a lot of the combined communication service sectors and i.t. and health sector may be more than half the index which is more at than the equivalent in europe and japan which is why the u.s. stands out at this point. nejra: that mentality among investors that you were talking about of wanting to buy the dip, does that apply to credit as well as equities? and if it does, are they favoring investment-grade over high-yield? wei: absolutely it applies to credit. themes of her outlook whicheek is focusing on

-- investment grade has been part of the inflow over the last week or so when etf flows turn positive, so definitely a bright spot within the fixed income space, basically taking a majority of the inflows. survey, weinvestor have asked our clients what are their top convictions going into q2, and taking the top three spots within a very narrow range of both breakdowns is cash investments -- investment rate and u.s. equities. nejra: interesting.

we will talk more about that in just a moment. for now let's turn to the u.s. presidential race, and bernie sanders has ended his campaign. it sets up former vice president joe biden as the democratic party's presumptive nominee to face president donald trump in november. bloomberg talk to the chairman of the democratic national committee about the parties next steps and virus precautions for the upcoming convention. theoday is the beginning of general election campaign, as far as i'm concerned. we are working hard to make sure that we can offer to our nominee a really muscular infrastructure. that's what we have been working on for the last two years, and i am confident and proud of the fact that we are going to hand over to the vice president the most expensive campaign infrastructure the d&c has ever built for a nonincumbent presidential candidate in modern political history.

pandemices the influence your ability to create that infrastructure? especially when it comes to fundraising, for example. our tactics have changed, but our goals haven't. work done a lot more digitally and we have trained literally 4000 or 5000 digital organizers. we have been in the digital space for some time and we will continue to do this. we are continuing to raise money aggressively because we want to make sure that we can implement our battleground buildup. we have already gotten organizers and others in place in the key battleground states. we are not knocking on doors, there is no doubt about that, but we are actively ramping up our campaign battleground infrastructure, because we know

that we have 209 days until the election, so we will change our tactics, but we are not going to change our goals. >> i was struck by what you just said about not being able to knock on doors. wisconsinesterday held a primary. as states decide to delay or postpone their primaries, and we get closer and closer to that june 9 deadline for delegate selection. are you considering changing the rules at all for states to have primaries post that deadline and that they will get counted at the convention? and bylawss committee is already working carefully and closely with the states that have been forced by this pandemic to change their primary dates. we will continue to do that. in the meantime, obviously we are going to begin the process of working really closely with the vice president so that the

momentum that he has built in this impressive run all across the north, south, east, and west, he has incredibly broad appeal, and we will work with the states it haven't voted yet and the states that have already voted. we are going to build a remarkable general election infrastructure so that we can win not only the presidency but up and down the ballot. >> when it comes to the convention, it has already been delayed to august. is it realistic to think that an august convention is a normal convention, so to speak, could be at play, when you have to consider things like delegates voting virtually? >> i'm looking forward to august. we moved the convention five weeks back so that we can , it's a the probability good move that has been well

received. our goal is to make sure we put on a really impressive show in milwaukee, where we showcase our values. we will make sure we have safety as job one. we are not going to put our public health heads in the sand, unlike the other side. at the same time, i am confident we can put on an exciting, muscular convention where we showcase our values, our nominees, and i look forward to again, having the vice president tok about his commitment everyday americans as we move forward. nejra: that was our interview with the chairman of the democratic national committee, tom perez. on thene lagarde economic response to the pandemic.

details, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

nejra: good morning from london, i'm nejra cehic. this is bloomberg "daybreak: europe." european countries have started considering the best way to start relaxing their coronavirus lockdowns. the premier of george's -- germany's largest state with a next wednesday to reassess the situation. at the same time, italy is hammering out an approach that sees the full return to normal taking

people involved in the government talks. the majority of germans reject the concept, citing a poll the newspaper says 57% are against e.u. in the state taken on debt -- debt with joint liability to deal with the outbreak. we had comments on german radio saying he can't see any damage and the german priority is to protect euro region stability. does the lack of progress on finding a solution in europe make you hold more conviction with that stance? wei: definitely the lack of bold and decisive policy response that we see coming from the u.s. and china, we are not seeing that here in europe. there has been a big reason equities. european

ecb has done a lot to limit the bond buying program, talking to free uping terms bond buying capacity, but the fact that it couldn't agree on a is whatted approach differentiates it from the u.s.. giving bondholders preferential claims on corporate cash flows in the economic environment, and the fact that the ecb is i.t. in particular. so selectivity when it comes to europe. great to have you with us this morning, thank you so much. coming up, we will speak to sheila patel of goldman sachs.

u.s. futures have given up their gains, european futures firmly in the green. this is bloomberg. ♪

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nejra: good morning from london. this is bloomberg "daybreak: europe." these are today's top stories. global coronavirus cases top 1.5 million as new york and the u.k. report their deadliest day so far. ok prime minister boris johnson remain stable in hospital. oil extends gains ahead of today's opec meeting as top producers move closer to a deal to curb output. russia says it is ready to cut by 1.6 million barrels a day. ubs expects to purport -- report

first quarter profit at about $1.5 billion. the dividend for 2019 will be paid in two phases. don't miss our exclusive interview at 9:30 a.m. u.k. time. be there signs that may coronavirus is not peeking, but wall street saying the global economy could take a $5 trillion hit over the next two years. in a technical bull market in asia overnight, producing some green on the screen though it is a mixed picture. u.s. initial jobless claims today, a key number. the expectation is more than 5 million. u.s. futures giving at some of their gains to trade flat on the s&p 500. nasdaq futures in the red. european futures firmly in the green, up .8%. the 10 year yield slipping to a 75 handle. we've seen some steadiness in

the dollar in today's session and oil on the front foot as russia has signaled it could cut 15% of its output. we look ahead to that opec-plus meeting today. the coronavirus claimed another daily record number of victims today in the u.k. as well as the hard-hit states of new york and new jersey. the number of new cases in spain crept up after several days of declines. 1.5 million infections is the global tally and around 88,000 deaths. american expert anthony pouncey said the start of turnaround could come after this week. wall street banks are warning that the coronavirus pandemic could drop the global economy of more than $5 trillion of growth over the next two years, greater than the annual output of japan. the bank for international settlements has warned that disjointed government responses could make things worse. sheila patel is chairman of goldman sachs asset management. great to have you with us on the show. thank you so much for joining us.

what is the outlook of goldman sachs in terms of potential hit to global growth over the next two years? some wall street banks out there calling for a $5 trillion hit in the next few years. meila: think of for having and for bringing content in these conditions. your great team is making it all worked. i think as we look ahead, there are things we can know and things we cannot. a global hit to growth but i'm not sure that order of magnitude has quite resonated with this yet. as we look at what we know versus what we don't know, were focused on the question of a rolling recovery. some sectors will rebound more quickly while others lag significantly in a changed world which investors are seeing for themselves. i'm used to speaking to you after multicountry tour. in this case i'm coming from a desk chair. having spoken to people on

pretty much every continent every day except maybe antarctica, people are truly looking for the opportunities, but dealing with the uncertainties, there's no question that some industries will take quite a bit of time to come back. the restaurant industry or travel. on the other hand, manufacturing could resume sooner. we could see some rebounds and transportation, given current levels are so low, although getting back to the prior high levels will be difficult. uneven next very couple of years, given those unknowns, but not one without opportunity as well. nejra: absolutely. as you have done your global tour, albeit perhaps more remotely at the moment, what are you gauging from clients in terms of their appetite for risk? are they wanting to hold cash and sit on the sidelines right now?

are they concerned with capital preservation? or are they saying please go out there and find opportunities for us, with the recent selloff we -- that we've had. even though the s&p 500 is technically back in the bull market. client i would say every wants her talk about the investing opportunity and the management environment. they are all still struggling with what they're seeing. while having the whole team work remotely as well. i would say on the institutional front, many of our clients came into 2020 expecting a challenging environment or even recession and had raised cash. so they came in with some money that could be put to work, but now they need to consider where. i would say more measured approach in the u.s.. money has been put more quickly to work coming out of some parts of asia as well as the middle east. on theus has really been

opportunistic side. if you think about where people were in equities versus where they are today, both on the institutional and retail side, there is significantly less exposure. the retail side might've gone from the 92nd percentile of holdings to the 30th percentile. there is potential for people to look at the markets and see this rebound, i don't know if it is and we've not seen a bear market that's gone into recovery, so i suspect we have some challenges ahead. scientists are looking at credit, at significant opportunities in the equity space, but looking at it in a more active way because it's challenges of certain industries and sectors, as i mention. there's a real focus on high quality companies suffering short-term challenges and what are perceived as relatively short-term challenges in the current business environment.

really interesting. sheila, a lot of people are saying the forecasting ability right now, whether on the macroeconomic front or whether related to company earnings, is oftually impossible because the uncertainty around how the coronavirus is going to evolve and how lockdowns around the world are going to be involved. with that backdrop of limited forecasting ability, talk a little more about the goldman sachs approach to investing right now and meeting some of those client needs that you just talked about. sheila: when the timing is unknown, of consistent approach and the focus on the makeup of the cover is what makes sense to us. as investors see themselves as we are sitting here on the phone , instead of being in the studio together, there is a real seachange in the way people are engaging with each other and having to engage in the world. to give you one example of the

way we think about these being -- trying to help our clients come up with ways to invest in these markets with all the significant unknowns, we see her millennial portfolio which is focused on the consumption and lifestyle habits of that generation moving into the broader population. adoption rates of all the technologies of things we have in our portfolio have probably advanced by several years. wellness,ne, online gaming, social interaction. in china, gaming app downloads are up 40% over the last year. sports are up, internet usage is booming. you see whole segments of the population beyond the millennials, including the older generations, starting to see technology, and reasonable

question we and our clients are asking is how much do they go back? particularly in an environment where we aren't sure when the more reasonable approaches -- when we get to the other side of this, where will people be? will there be a vaccine? will there still be segments of the population that are still in lockdown while others are trying to resume work? it seems there are certain things we can tease out. one other is the question a business overall having a friendly attitude toward work for home more than before given the stability there, and the business environment. we become more friendly to innovations in areas like health care versus the prior risk-averse, conservative approaches. some of this could be a big opportunity. nejra: sheila patel from global

sat -- goldman sachs asset management. sheila will stay with us. let's get to the first word news. former vice president joe biden is a democrat parties presented nominee for president after senator bernie sanders ended his run, thanking supporters for helping to create an unprecedented grassroots campaign. he said he will stay on the ballot to help push democrats closer to a decision. federal reserve officials already saw the need for new programs to cushioned the economy, according to the minutes of their unscheduled video conference on boards 15. officials were split over how long it fears how long the downturn will be but there are concerns the crisis would put further downward pressure on inflation. christine lagarde renewed her plea for a strong physical response to the coronavirus. she is urging governments to get over their differences as they prepare for a second round of talks. her comments were in an op ed

published in newspapers across europe, day after finance ministers failed to agree on a rescue package. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. coming up, do not miss our exclusive interview with the ubs ceo. that's after 9:30 a.m. u.k. time. this is bloomberg. ♪

nejra: good morning from london. this is bloomberg "daybreak: europe." thes get a quick check on market action. green on the screen for forte in asia. hard to get a read on how the u.s. equity market will open. .10%, dow just futures leading ever so

slightly. the s&p 500 technically in a bull market. european futures in the green, up more than 1%. the 10 year yield slipping three basis points and oil on the front foot ahead of the opec meeting. let's get more with sheila patel from goldman sachs asset management. she joins us on the phone. let's pick up on the themes we were discussing earlier in terms of talking about the investing landscape. what are you finding in terms of esg investing at the moment? are you seeing more appetite from clients for esg in their portfolio, or is it something they have put to the side and been focusing much more on the current volatility because of the coronavirus crisis? sheila: ironically, i think one might have expected esg to be put to the side, but in fact it is coming up quite a bit. like treatmentcs of employees, the environmental

footprint, especially in light and theandemic interaction with humans and animals creating a new disease, and board leadership in the environment coming to the forefront. even though everybody might not call it esg, at some point many of our investors are triggering into other themes as they think about the companies and sectors where they are looking to invest in this environment. nejra: is there an element of quality and defensiveness with having more esg in the portfolio, sheila? sheila: i think so. in particular, your point on defensiveness is well put. in this environment, you have ,he government and especially companies know they are being judged in this moment. and their response to the crisis will be watched a governments

and by their many stakeholders come as we look at it from an investor perspective, we have to look at it the same way. companies cannot afford a misstep at this moment, so those that have the best leadership of the right position in terms of many of the issues that fall under the bailey week of esg have tended to outperform in a crisis and you would expect this to be no different. the biggest difference is asking these questions early on in the investing process. nejra: interesting. i know it is hard to make comparisons with the current crisis with any in the past because it is so different in nature and it is a health care crisis that has started to impact the financial system and the economy, but are there any lessons you are drawing from past crises to help you navigate this one? sheila: absolutely. one of the key things goldman has drawn on and has benefited

all of us significantly is we've invested tremendously in how we support people and our business and our clients in a challenging environment. so investments in technology, in resilience, backup systems, business continuity planning, a lot of things that don't feel like very fine at the time and from an expense perspective you might question, into being extremely valuable in providing the services our clients need. that spans everything from the work we do and asset management to the work that my colleagues do in investment banking or on the trading floor. we knew think about trying to provide liquidity, recommending our best ideas in an environment like this, i would say a big thing is making sure we had the connectivity in the toolset to let the business continue and

let us serve clients without the distraction of disruption on that front. nejra: sheila, how much faith do you have in a sustained rebound in china's economy going from here? our minds, we've been getting some relatively constructive noises from china. anecdotally, factories are going back to work, albeit with protocols i think the rest of the world will learn from. temperature checks, spacing out workers, being quick to address anyone who is sick, going through much more robust cleaning seizures at facilities and so on. and from the noises we are up.ing, activity is our biggest caution and concern, which would be shared in any of the response to the lockdown going forward, is what do we really know about this disease

and whether it could reemerge? that's one of the bigger concerns. there are some widely circulated photos of large groups of people assembling again, and you could imagine that happening anywhere. people are so excited to get out and engage with their friends and family and their environments in cities and so on, but is that safe and will that work? so we are cautiously optimistic, but the challenge we see more is the health challenge than the business challenge. upra: i'm glad you brought the second wave, but because it seems that up to this point, a lot of the assumption in markets has been that there will be some sort of v-shaped recovery. a lot of people seem to be changing that stance right now, but i feel like i don't hear enough people showing real concern about the potential for a second wave and a really protracted recession that could

even become a depression. is that something that clients are concerned about at the moment and asking you to protect them against in their portfolios? sheila: there are definitely clients concerned with that question. the comforting fact that many people take from this is the amount of money being invested, coordination which you mentioned earlier on the show is incredibly important, so we're watching that very closely. companies for and netting as well. the more robust people's confidence can be in the market's ability to heal itself, and we have the human patient is the most important, but there are a number of clients who are quite worried about the economic patient as well. i been very fortunate to be part years thaty for many

diseaseated with experts. it is clear we don't have the data get to know that there won't be a second wave or if there's any kind of herd immunity or anything any doctor you might have on would say. so people are watching that extremely closely because it is a critical factor to then address the rest of the patients that are in the waiting room, in the economy and the markets. how much do you think in the future or perhaps starting now that you, yourself and goldman sachs are elsewhere in the investment industry, investors will start to factor into their forecast health an actual science in the way they have done with political risk in the past few years? isila: i think that definitely an increasing area of focus. call atingly, we had a

few weeks ago with some of the experts on this matter and this was a critical area of risk focus for them. how do we start accessing it, how do we think about it, what economicy to put in terms the way we should think about this? there are some good pieces of work to think about the economic these of the increase of kind of diseases as the environment and humidity -- and humanity come into more conflict. that is an element they are trying to quantify. theuld say the question of positive potentially that can come out of this global coordination, more of a technocratic rather than a political approach, given that many countries have been disappointed in how fast the response has been. those will be critical to watch as well. patel, aeila

fascinating and wide-ranging conversation. thank you so much for your time. of next, sliding towards a deal. russia signals it is ready to make cuts to output as producers face up to slumping mobile oil demand. we will bring you the story, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

nejra: good morning from london. this is bloomberg "daybreak: europe." let's talk about oil. an unprecedented accord between the world's biggest oil producers has moved closer as they face up to slumping global demand. where are we on negotiations ahead of the meeting? some positive signs from russia, it looks like. by 1.6ia willing to cut

million barrels, about 15%. this is a big step forward ahead of the opec-plus talks. a virtual meeting. one thing we did hear from russia yesterday was the kremlin saying u.s. idea of economically driven cuts won't be sufficient enough. that is one thing we are still waiting to see whether or not the u.s. will be able to give more to the deal. president trump said he has always hated opec, but things have changed recently. he talked about the fact that they want to save u.s. jobs. one thing is clear, a deal is definitely needed. we saw the demand figures yesterday falling to about 14 million barrels a day, the lowest in about 30 years. , for april about 70%. so serious demand destruction and a deal is needed. nejra: we will see if the gains and oils can hold up. that's it for bloomberg

"daybreak: europe." u.s. futures flat. this is bloomberg. ♪ awesome internet.

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matt: good morning, welcome to "bloomberg markets: europe." i am matt miller here in berlin. let's get your top headlines. credit suisse and ubs will delay half of their dividend payments. we speak exclusively the ceo of ubs. the $5 trillion hit. wall street