francine: president trump declares he has total authority to reopen states amid the pandemic, setting the stage for a clash with governors. more than 10,000 are dead from the virus in new york alone. global stocks rising as goldman sachs warns of a 35 percent gdp slump for advanced economies. jp morgan reports earnings this morning. global coronavirus cases approach the 2 million mark. france and india extend lockdowns. the u.k. expected to follow suit. good morning, good afternoon,

good evening, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance," i'm francine lacqua. the news flow is pretty terrific today. the coronavirus, the lockdown, the impact of our economy, and our hearts are always with the families that are rather losing loved ones are actually fighting for their life. this is what i'm looking at the markets. the next couple of weeks may will be rocky because a lot of the focus will be on earnings. so if i'm looking at stocks, they are up today. up. indices, futures also we really don't know what we get from this earnings season after the pandemic upended the global economy. the other story is oil edging up gold, slipping from a seven-year high. we will get to more market analysis shortly. let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news. in new york city is viviana hurtado. viviana: an extension to the bekdown, it is expected to

announced later this week. the pm was discharged from the hospital. the uk's chief advisor once the daily rate of deaths will continue to rise. in france, the country was underprepared for the coronavirus pandemic. this is according to president emmanuel macron. the admission coming as the president extends its locked in to may 11. mr. micron saying that by that date, france will be able to test all patients with symptoms, finance minister warning the crisis will see the french economy contracted by 8%. >> during this period, the only way is to act efficiently to halt the spread of the virus. may 11 will only be possible if we continue to do our civic duty , act responsibly and respect

the rules. >> here in the united states, the vice chairman of the fed says the central bank can keep the u.s. out of its deflationary trap. richard clarida saying it will use tools until it is "confident" the economy has recovered. in the last three weeks, 17 million people filing for unemployment benefits in the u.s.. we end with bernie sanders endorsing joe biden for u.s. president as he attempts to persuade his supporters to back the presumptive nominee. he is calling on americans of all political affiliations to work to defeat president donald trump and this endorsement coming less than a week after sanders dropped out of the race. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quick take powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: thank you so much. let's get more in the clash between u.s. governors and president trump, let's get

straight to new york city and annmarie hordern. clash, thise president trump actually have all the power? annmarie: good morning. president trump says he has total power and authority when it comes to when we could see some of the social distancing measures loosened and lockdown measures lifted. many are saying, including governors and legal experts that according to the constitution that if it is not identified a something within federal government jurisdiction, it goes to the states. we could potentially see the showdown between federal and state leaders and that could exacerbate what we have seen at times is a very prickly situation. we have learned governors are taking a bit of a regional approach. here in new york, governor andrew cuomo is working with the governors of new jersey in effect sylvania to work with northeast dates so they can come up with a plan so they can reopen schools and businesses coordinating together. we also see it on the west coast

with california and oregon. it remains to be seen if it will states andwn between the federal government. francine: is president trump actually convinced that the economy will get him reelected? and what will he be judged on? coronavirus efforts and stopping the number of deaths going up or is it in job losses? annmarie: it is a really good question. right now, it is obvious the president of the united states want to lift social distancing measures and get the economy back to work. he says we can do that ahead of schedule. he ran on this platform to make the economy great again. we saw a record in stock market prices. said people really --nted a great situation grave situation in terms of the

economy. these initial jobless claims. this is obviously something weighing heavy on him and some of the advisors in his committee and it is something that i think that we just value -- that he does value in terms of his reelection in november. francine: thank you so much. we will keep a very close eye on this tough news. we are also getting breaking out of indonesia. sayingtral bank came out they are leaving their interest rate with the reverse repo remaining unchanged. tom keene had a great conversation yesterday here in the u.k., he spoke to richard clarida, the federal reserve vice chair. he was telling tom keene that the u.s. can't escape deflation. here he is. can escape deflation. here he is.

>> i'm very confident that as the economy begins to return and recover that we, at the appropriate time, will be able to unwind these programs. tom and mike, there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the u.s. economy. it came into the year in a very strong position in terms of employment and growth and financial markets and i'm confident we can get back there and at the appropriate time, we can scale back these programs. follow up on that and ask you this. ofh probably billions dollars in loans out to companies that near zero for over four years, are you ever going to be able to raise interest rates again or are we looking at essentially the fed doing yield curve control now? >> well, right now, we are not doing yield curve control, but we indicated in our march statement that we are going to keep rates where they are, which is basically very close to zero. toil the economy is on track

achieve its maximum employment and price stability's. is goingof the economy to indicate the path of rates. these facilities will be in place during the period when the economy is impacted by the virus. the term sheets for these programs, you will see that the to stopes are due lending in september of this year. obviously, we can extend that as needed. these loans will be in place. time, we dopriate not think that that will be a challenge to us when it is appropriate, but that is a long way down the road. we think where rates are now is where they need to be given where the economy is. notes thomas getting from people with questions, why did you feel it necessary to go into buying junk? >> well, we have put in place no

fewer than nine facilities over the past several weeks and first , the responsibility is to make sure credit is flowing to businesses and households. financing auto loans and credit cards. in our main street lending program, we will be partnering with banks to provide financing to businesses. the vast bulk of these programs is focused on new lending. there is an element of one of these programs that will be purchasing assets and the secondary market. the important point for your listeners and viewers to recognize is that several important companies in the u.s. were investment-grade up until this crisis hit. what we said in our programs is that if they been downgraded

after the date of the crisis, they will have access to these facilities. >> mr. vice chairman, the elasticity here, i'm not asking you to play epidemiologist unless you would like to, but i would suggest that we don't know the speed of outcomes. what do we do if we get a more optimistic outcome. what do you do with an institution if there is a rapidity to our recovery? are looking at a very wide range of scenarios as i'm sure our other central banks and policymakers? we have got a lot of bad news. the labor market with 60 million initial claims over the last several weeks, so the economy is taking a hit.

there is nothing wrong with the economy. we've asked people to step back from economic activity. there are scenarios that are more optimistic and we certainly hope and pray that they materialize. programs.ve in place we are building a bridge until the economy can get to the other side and begin to recover. if that happen sooner, we will know what to do at that time. that was richard clarida speaking to michael mckee and tom keene. to the chief executive of sky scanner. we will talk about the future of the travel industry and what happens to sky scanner next. this is bloomberg. ♪

welcome back. this is ""bloomberg surveillance." we had some news from deutsche this morning. the metro, keep an eye out. we will bring you more on that shortly. double digit slump in the first half of 2020. this is because of widespread lockdown. we had a bloomberg survey that

came in yesterday. most of the hit coming in the second quarter. even with an expected rebound later in the year, the output will still declined by more than 5% in 2020, according to a survey done by bloomberg. guest.et straight to our thank you for giving us a little how bad willime gdp be? ofause of furloughs, because aid to companies, do you expect an ugly number? >> i think perhaps the speed of the recovery will be critically dependent on how people feel about this. i think the psychological

element will be an important element. seen crises of confidence. just another moving part in the whole equation. i would perhaps look at the wto forecast for trade volumes this year, they think the merchandise trade will fall somewhere between 13% in 32%. see this iso unprecedented in this historic moment. 2008 compare that with when trade fell about 10% in the great depression when trade fell itut 60%, we can conclude will probably be worse than the 2008 crisis, but probably not as bad as their worst fear. francine: how much worse than 2008? is it employment?

is it companies going bust? what are you looking at in terms of measures that make this recession so much deeper than 2008 2009 esther mark -- 2009? >> i certainly don't want to trivialize employment. the effort with these support packages is to replace the lost income. that happens, the size of the measures is unprecedented and also comes with one of the measures. we can lean at the loss of productive capacity. that is obviously a challenge here. it will depend on how long this goes on for. the longer it goes on, the more dangerous it is.

the higher the risk that we actually do lose some capacity, which could limit the rebound along with whatever damage this does to our sentiment going forward. another somewhat encouraging number that i find -- sorry. francine: go ahead. >> the trade data for the month of march. 6.6%, but that was less than half of the expected fall. expectations were in the line of -14%. imports dropped barely 1% compared to expectations close to 10%. that this can be , it is notce value

necessarily a trend, but it does suggest what i was saying earlier that our worst fears might not be realized. that is certainly what i'm holding out for. perhaps it is my optimistic nature. parts.re so many moving we have these unprecedented forecast ranges between zero and -10% for the world economy. it is hard to know. francine: if you look at solidarity in europe, if you look at solidarity in europe, there is a great column saying onis a lot of collaboration health care policy, how has europe handled it. [indiscernible] to a crisis isck italy going to be -- need a

bailout after this? >> i think that is all playing into the confidence issue. europe has pulled out all of these packages similar in magnitude to what we have seen in the u.s.. money beingof the funneled into the economy. fault that,eally but it seems like a lost opportunity not to use this crisis to enhance the confidence effect,uro and to that i think that some form of specific corona financial instruments does make sense. not necessarily in terms of bringing more money because the money is already available, but in terms of the psychological inefits that that could have

the monetary union. francine: mary, think you so much. a little bit later, we have jp morgan owning's -- earnings. a little bit later on, the cfo of wells fargo joins us. this is bloomberg. ♪

this is ""bloomberg

surveillance," i'm francine lacqua in london. a lot of the focus will be on earnings. this is as economists looked on the impact of the lockdown. analysts will try to figure out what the earnings season will bring. gold slipping from a seven-year high. if you look at jp morgan and wells fargo, the global heavyweights in the banking sector that actually will come out with earnings a little bit later. then we have audi saying they may restart car production at the end of next week. this is bloomberg. ♪ these days you need faster internet that does all you

expect and way more. that's xfinity xfi. get powerful wifi coverage that leaves no room behind with xfi pods. and now xfi advanced security is free with the xfi gateway, giving you an added layer of network protection, so every device that's connected is protected. that's a $72 a year value. no one else offers this.

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surveillance." we are back. the markets trying to figure out the first lockdown, what it means for the economy, and trying to figure out how to measure earnings season. bloomberg first word news in new york city with viviana hurtado. viviana: total authority to order u.s. states to relax social distancing. this declaration from president donald trump, that is as a number of state governors say they will form alliances to coordinate the re-orbiting -- the reopening of schools and businesses. avenue some says governors will be guided by facts and science. will be guideds by facts and science. pres. trump: we are very close to completing a plan to open our country. hopefully even ahead of schedule. viviana: an extension to the u.k. locked out will be

announced this week. the foreign secretary dominic raab, stepping in for -- standing in for boris johnson after being -- the u.k. chief scientific advisor warns the rise that will continue to there. france was underprepared before hit, according to emmanuel macron. by may 11,saying france will be able to test all patients with symptoms. thefinest minister warning french economy will contract this year by 8%. here in the u.s., bernie sanders endorsing joe biden for u.s. president. that is as he attempts to theuade supporters to back presumptive democratic nominee. senator sanders is calling on americans of all political affiliations to work to defeat president trump. the endorsement also coming less than a week after mr. sanders dropped out of the race. we end with china's trade

performance. it performed better than expected last month. imports, exports and .eclining less than expected from a year earlier, outbound shipments declining 3.5 percent come imports rising within 2%. despite china porting -- china returned to mom -- is despite china returning to normal, average are not running to full capacity. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i'm viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: thank you so much. it was a difficult week of her oil, certainly a constructive weekend. this is what the markets are telling us today. i don't know if the price of oil is holding onto modest gains as investors are trying to weigh in whatments between -- with

opec-plus actually means. itsing the most of progressing in february, and the energyseparate e minister told annmarie hordern he hopes the market will be mitigated in the next couple of months. >> we are keeping production up. i think the new spirit and the new life and the new arrangements, including cooperation with the other producers, mindful of the national circumstances, including the new spirit within opec, and what else to , as a way to show the whole world that he is up and running and acting mind,sibly, with that in todoesn't take a hero

predicts that this whole orangement, be it structured being created as a result of the situation, would not also be attentive to any further requirements that may happen. we still hope that the situation can be mitigated within the next couple of months. as opposed to more uncertainty. and i hope that once we return to that curve, away from the defending curve, things will be a lot better, and things will be -- in terms of readiness, yes, i believe i can speak of saudi arabia, that as long as all of are ready to do

anything necessary, we would be the first to commit and the last two abandon -- and the last two abandon. -- and the less to abandon. thehere does this leave relationship now? things were all said and done in two years, could we see another price were come back potentially? >> i will carry on with your metaphor. -- like any it family, they go through differences. but usually families keep to , and it allcircles depends on the bond of the family. of bond of this family production is strong, and like any family, they go through

challenges. it actually preserves the resilience of any family. as a family, we are much more resilient and much more strong crisisher any potential that may emerge in the future. >> is the united states now part of this family? >> sorry to disappoint the divorce lawyers, we don't need any divorce lawyers. >> who are the most important people in this deal? we have seen president trump tweet a lot about it. are you surprised that an american president is pushing for higher oil prices? >> certainly it is not my job to

defend the president, but i will speako be fair to him and the truth. the truth is a responsible is creatinghe truth drops, creating communities, creating growth, creating income, creating a big intruder to gdp, creating a service and itis to be protected is well being looked after. ofate to see any president any country that would not do their job. was the saudi oil minister, speaking with emory quarter -- with annmarie hordern. it is a great interview, and i suggest you follow the rest of it online.

coming up, we speak to the chief executive of sky scanner. we will ask him about the travel industry. we will also talk about sky scanner and what can be done for funding. and this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: did morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we just had two fantastic conversations, one with richard clarida with michael mckee and tom keene. oil with the saudi minister. the threat of course is the coronavirus outbreak, having wide-ranging impact across travelers as airports are closed.

people no longer travel, government surgeons continue to decimate passenger demand and force would be travelers to cancel trips for the foreseeable future. he through airport has announced the air traffic is down 90% in april, and india has banned 3 asuled flights until may it extends its national lockdown. brian dobbs is the chief executive officer of sky scanner. brian, ray to have you. -- great to have you. are you seeing any bookings, 12 months from now, 18 months from now, or is it still too soon? bryan: one, i think it is too soon. as we talk to travelers, we talked to 5000, 10 thousand every week. we are hearing early signs of optimism and hope that they will be able to travel again, and we are to see some early interest at least on searching and

looking for options toward the latter part of the year. people are thinking about getting together with friends, with family around the holidays. it is still too early to claim any type of recovery, but i think early signs of hope and optimism. francine: this is the health crisis that turns into an economic crisis. but because it is a health crisis and people might be afraid of traveling for a very long time, how does it compare to previous crises? i think you hit it right on, that this is not purely an economic crisis, it is a health-led crisis, and there is so much uncertainty out there for individuals, for people with families, for people wanting to travel, people wanted to see the world. as we talk to travelers, people are uncertain, and they are anxious, and they are a little bit scared. so i think as the world moves

through this, we have to understand and support travelers for where they are at today. we want to help them with thinking about getting police information, understanding how they can be safe, helping them to -- as things start to become a bit more printable, as they will starts to get through this crisis and people -- more predictable, as the world starts to get through this crisis, we have to be realistic about helping all of our customers on that journey. usncine: what can you give as far as insight into customer behavior? first of all --

francine: do you expect airlines to cut prices to attract more customers? bryan: well, i think right now we have certainly seen that across the sector. we have seen airlines trying all different types of techniques, whether it is relaxed policies, easier changes, lower fares, really trying to help stimulate the demand especially as we get later in the year, giving travelers that level of comfort and confidence that should their plans change, that they will be able to make those changes. so we see airlines and hotel companies making those adjustments. while we talk to travelers and our partners, we do continue to

see some of those early signs of hope and optimism, that as we get toward the latter part of the year, things will start to recover. i think people are quite hesitant to make plans in the short-term, in the next couple weeks, and the couple of months. people start thinking about their summer holidays. as we start looking forward to the fall and toward the end of the year. we hear folks reminiscing about spending time with family and friends. we hear them dreaming about getting back to their parents or to their loved ones or to see their kids or to see their relatives. we hear people continuing to look forward to that. we just think the time horizon of the booking window will be extended because there is so much uncertainty in the short run. there are places where actually the economy is starting to be picking up, or certainly some of the lockdowns are easing up. what kind of pattern do you see there for customers? are they flying more

domestically, or do you expect travel to change forever because of this? bryan: for one, i think we do expect travel to be different on the others of this crisis. i don't think anybody can say for certain how, but we do know will be more concerned about their health, about their safety. they want confidence in the choices they are making an flux ability and what they are looking for. you know that travel will change. what is incumbent on all of us in the industry is to use those fears and provide that safety for travelers in the industry. can you talk to us about sky scanner finances? do you worry about your company in terms of how it stays afloat, or is that not a concern? do you worry about bankruptcies in the travel industry in general, and how exposed are they? bryan: i think as an overall

sector, this is such an unprecedented level of slowdown and pause. i think you shared one of the stats in the region, that heathrow was forecasting an almost 90% decline in forecast his mom. it is such a unique position, i think governments around the world have than different -- in -- it is such a unique position, i think governments around the world -- different until we see some of the recoveries and some of the markets, for sky scanner specifically, we spent a long time growing and scaling our business for travelers around the world. we serve hundreds of millions of travelers and dozens and dozens of countries. so for us, our exposure is both early when we start to see the virus begin to spread in asia, but we also hope as a recovery starts to happen around the world, we will start to see some recovery.

francine: thank you so much. he is the sky scanner chief executive, bryan dove, joining us this morning. coming up, we have earnings season with two banking heavyweights. we will hear from j.p. morgan and wells fargo, the chief financial officer of wells fargo joined us later today. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "south africa cutting its benchmark rate fro o to .5%. cutting its benchmark rate from -- i don't know whether it is having a huge impact on brand. this is the power of the bloomberg terminal. even when you are working from home, it makes things quite easy when you look at rand. if i am looking at rand, you cannot see it on screen, but i do have it here. att at 18.15 that rand 18.15. -- rand at 18.15. overall this is what the markets

are doing. it is a big day, a shorter week than usual. the shorter week than usual because of course yesterday in the u.k. and in the e.u., it was a bank holiday because of the easter bank holiday. u.s. futures actually gaining, but i would say a lot of the focus is on the earnings season, probably the most uncertain earnings season on record after the coronavirus pandemic upended the global economy. if you look at gold, it is rising toward a fresh seven-your high. now, we will have a lot of earnings -- a fresh seven-year high. bank of america, goldman sachs, citigroup follow tomorrow with earnings. morgan stanley also expected later this week, so a full roundup of what we can expect in terms of dividends but also lending in these banks. let's get to dani burger. dani: hi, francine. the first quarter come in terms of what we should be looking out

for, it is going to be all about credit. not just because of the metrics we normally focus on. off ofe likely to move what strategists are forecasting because there is not a lot of visibility into what earnings are going to be. it would not be surprising if estimates are off 20% to 30%. with that in mind, intense focus is going to be, is there something on the bottom line that is due for a significant increase in lockdown provisions? what is setting aside credit losses? it not only gives us an idea economic turmoil and how severely it will impact individuals. asidens that money is set , not able to be spent on dividends and buy banks already under intense focus, not to mention the political pressure not to issue cash into the market that way.

francine: what about trading? what can you tell us about how much of a focus will be on trading? --i: so this is typically this quarter is not typical, and it will be fascinating because we see a large dichotomy between the winners and losers. in the winning corner, you have with that did well volatility, equity volatility come and can turn a profit because of that. on the other side, you have banks stuck with bonds and leveraging loans. that will hurt them very drastically. estimated the drop is to be 16% in trading revenue. so you could see bright spots like derivatives. that is likely to benefit banks like citigroup. a lot of traders have had to work from home, a very disjointed work environment. that is something we obviously cannot model for, so we will

have to see how these earnings play out. francine: when you look at the various banks, who is more exposed to lending to small and medium-sized enterprises, and will that at the end of the day be the winners and losers on how they handle that? dani: that is certainly going to make a difference. i mean, you look at these banks that consumer departments are very important for them, so what comes to mind is bank of america, for example. these banks are leaning on their consumer divisions to help make up for the trading losses. and when you look at that sort of loans, being increasingly bad debt, increasingly consumers -- that is sulli going to her a lot of these banks. again, it is going to be who has that bad debt on the balance sheet, and that is again why provisions are going to be so important, to seri see who is gearing us up for that, francine. francine: dani burger, thank you

very much. a close look at what the banking sector will bring. we will have j.p. morgan this morning, wells fargo, and a lot of u.s. banks later this week. stocks are up today. u.s. equity futures up on the outset. one of the most uncertain earnings seasons on record come as our dani burger was saying, focusing on the banks. coronavirus is upsetting economies. gold rising on a seven-year high. annmarie hordern bringing that great interview with the saudi oil minister. are extendingce their lockdowns. others, including germany and the u.k., facing decisions on what happens next. well, "bloomberg surveillance" is next. tom keene joins me out of new york. this is bloomberg. ♪ nowadays you do more from home than ever before.

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francine: president trump declares he has total authority to reopen states amid the pandemic, setting the stage for a clash with governors. more than 10,000 are dead from the virus in new york alone. global stocks rise even as goldman sachs warns of a 35% gdp -- a 45% gdp slump for advanced economies. jp morgan reports earnings this morning. and global coronavirus cases approach the 2 million mark. france and india extend lockdowns. the u.k. is expected to follow suit. well, good morning, good afternoon, good evening, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am reunited with tom keene. lacqua in london, tom is in new york as always. the earnings season is unprecedented. and then as i am back on my feet come you give me a good laugh last week because even my father-in-law was testing me saying i hope you are enjoying your holiday. it was not a holid