♪ francine: president halts funding to the who. he says the organization took china's coronavirus claims at face value. citigroup, j.p. morgan all reporting. jp morgan set aside the most cash in a decade. u.s. airlines come to an agreement with the treasury department to access billions of dollars in aid. it is a temporary lifeline, as the industry waits for customers to travel again. good morning, good afternoon,

good evening, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance. " i am francine lacqua working from home. the focus on the world health organization, also on the easing of lockdown and oil. after that historic agreement on sunday between opec-plus, now also involving europe, we have report. they say the oil storage filling up demand is dropping. that exceeds opec cuts. they are expecting oil demand to fall by a record 9.3 billion barrels per day year on year in 2020. brent extending declines. the concern that a lot of markets are pursue -- market participants had is that if opec is cutting production, it also has to match demand. this is what the iea is saying.

that demanded drop is exceeding opec-plus cuts. it seems that despite the cuts, the iea is still expecting a glut or surplus. let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news. here is viviana hurtado. >> we begin with president donald trump. he is suspending u.s. funding for the world health organization and reviewing its response to the coronavirus outbreak. the u.s. president accusing them of being slow to share information about the viral outbreak. he said that led to thousands of deaths and economic damage. it is not clear when any such funding stoppage will take effect. coronavirus deaths in europe now top 50,000. italy and spain among those easing some restrictions. certain local shops are to reopen it italy, as long as they maintain social distancing rules. madrid under fire for letting construction work resume. critics say it is reckless.

primary schools in denmark reopening today. a warning from the imf of so-called great lockdown recession. it will be the deepest in almost a century. it says if the coronavirus is not halted, the global contraction and subsequent recovery will be worse than forecast. global gdp will shrink 3%. that would be the deepest fall since the depression of the 1930's. former president barack obama stepping back into presidential politics. he has endorsed a joe biden and urged voters to join what he calls a "great awakening." with coronavirus measures preventing a rally by the men, president obama issued a 12 minute video endorsement, promising to join the campaign trail soon. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. back to you in west london.

francine: thank you so much. earnings.ite a lot of we are expecting more earnings today and of course, we are having some mixed messages when it comes to not only earnings but the markets overall. i am delighted to be joined by christian nolting. he's a global chief investment officer of wealth management at deutsche bank. where do you look to understand where to put your money in? there is overvalued tech. do you worry about the oil price exacerbating those recessions? do you worry about lockdown being restricted to soon and the recession even bigger in a couple of months? christian: calling from frankfurt this morning from the office actually, which i think is also good news. what do we look at, what do we watch? the most important question from our point of view is, how long will the lockdown take? are the measures discussed are now working in a way that you

can restart the economy? it may be tricky, as long as we don't have a vaccine. it is really tough. sociald to keep distancing measures in place. i think there is no way around this. some areas of the economy of course will suffer still. look at tourism, restaurants, so on. optimisticot be too until we find a solution and that will take some time. your question on oil, that is also important to watch. i am a bit cautious with the agreement we have been seeing with opec-plus, especially of the compliance of the different countries here. for example, if you look at mexico, i think they got this special deal where they only need to cut by 100,000 barrels per day instead of the quota. that could somewhat justify other countries to be not really compliant with the quota. i think that is also one reason why oil keeps dropping here.

i think that is important. on earnings, i would say yes, we have to look at what is happening in q1. willmy point of view, q2 be the really relevant one. everything started in march. i think that will be the really important one. putting the money still, a bit careful. i think there could be some correction in the market. that is why we really built robust portfolios here and looking at strategic asset locations with clients. that is key in this environment. francine: what do you do with something like pound? we have a great story saying pound may turn -- may become the unlikely winner because of the virus troubles in central europe. are there any outlier calls that you think would be good right now? what do you do with gold? what do you do with cash?

christian: on pound, it is interesting. when you save the euro zone struggles, italy not using money. you see spreads on italian bonds widening over the last two days since we had this agreement in place. you could say, who else could be a winner in europe? you can say maybe sterling. i think there will be new negotiations and there will also be a solution for italy. i think it is too early to call for this. that would mean the euro zone really struggles to find a solution, which i doubt. more discussions will be necessary, but i think eventually there will be a solution for that. your question on gold, i think gold is a winner. eventually, a lot of money is spent. a lot of money needs to be invested. people will look into this. we have been seeing this goalie rising. for such -- gold rising. gold was weakening because of liquidity needs. now, gold is moving. that makes sense.

talk about robust portfolios, that's a good diversification of what you need. that's why think that's very important. we do have cash in the portfolios, yes, because our investment strategies to use the cash to move into the markets, but we have a very disciplined approach where we say we do use may be 3, 4 steps to go back into the market? we are quite substantially underweight right now. we have to find levels where we invest in quite interesting stocks and bonds. that's why we will use the cash for that. longer-term, what are the questions that markets should be asking themselves? there is going to be a huge debt , central bank with huge balance sheets. are we going to pay the price in 5-10 years? it is something that we don't need to think about now because there could be something like debt forgiveness. it is certainly getting a little bit of traction. christian: i think we do need to

think about this because yes, there was a short at the beginning. over the next two weeks, i would say there is more and more investors thinking of the consequences. the consequences, from my point of view, is that we will probably stay with low yields for a very long time. that is why it is important maybe to look at equities as well. there is this no alternative around this. there could be one development we also should think of. we have seen globalization being a driver of low inflation. i think what we have been seeing so far is a reflex of the economy may be to think a bit more in a national way. we have seen the first developments even before coronavirus. i think this could accelerate. if we say that globalization has brought down inflation and you can talk about dis-inflation here, then longer-term, if the trend is being reduced, that could lead to higher inflation.

the consequences would still be interesting to look at equities, also to look at gold, as i mentioned before. to other, of course, aspect take into account is there could be additional taxes to repay for this. that would certainly weigh on growth. i can't rule out that we see some taxes coming up later on to repay some of this debt. francine: also, your thoughts on china? china adding, trimming rates this morning -- adding liquidity, trimming rates this morning. are they a template of what other central banks and the fed will need to do in the longer-term? christian: it could be a template for other central banks. other central banks have also moved. into a $2.3ng also million program.

that is massive support from the central banks. we are clearly at the stage were central banks deliver what they can. from that perspective, that is positive. we need to see more on the fiscal side as well probably. the problems so far i think are not enough yet. how long is the lockdown necessary and how quickly can we restart the economy? i think the central banks do a great job here to really support what they can. it is about fiscal spending and then it's about really growth again being back to the normal economy state. we probably need some time to go back to that. francine: christian, chancellor merkel's consulting regional leaders later today on opening up or at least easing curves in germany. you are in the office. do you see that as a trend? do you think the german economy will be one of the first ones to reopen? christian: well, i would be careful here. i think yes, everyone probably

wants to open the economy as soon as possible. as i mentioned, if you go on the street now, we have no vaccination. i think we need to keep social distancing in place. i would expect germany to also open slowly. i think you don't want to be really saying this is all done, we can forget about this. otherwise, you have a second round effect. this second round effect, if you again need to lock down the economy, i think this would be seen by markets very negatively. also, look at the emotions of people if you are back in a lockdown. that probably would hit from the psychological side. that is something all politicians want to avoid. you need a date where you can restart. you have seen this in other countries like austria, denmark. expect something to happen but very carefully. as i said, you really want to avoid a second round effect here. francine: thank you so much. christian nolting there of deutsche bank.

coming up, we will be speaking to mel stride. we will talk about funding in the u.k. and some of the measures taken in great britain. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ welcome back. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." a protracted lockdown can see the u.k. economy shrink by more than a third this quarter. it can also increase unemployment by over 2 million and could send the budget deficit to its highest since world war ii. the dire scenario comes also as the imf warns that the british economy is on course to contract

more this year than it did when the financial crisis was raging. joining us this morning is mel stride, chair of the u.k. treasury committee. thank you for joining us. this is worrying across the world. many people will be concerned about going back home and worried about their jobs. what are the key questions that you want answered? do you think governments and officials are doing enough or too little? say firstly, what i would is that this is not a forecast. this is what they are calling a scenario based on if the lockdown in its current form persists for a whole quarter and then in the following quarter, there is an easing of the lockdown. the interesting thing actually is that whilst they are saying that they would see a very substantial short-term contraction in u.k. gdp by some 35%, they would equally be expecting at this stage that the

economy would bounce back very rapidly and that over the course of the next couple of quarters, actually economy would emerge roughly on the kind of trend that they were predicting before struck theirus united kingdom. there is a huge assumption on that that we will get a strong bounce back and a lot of people would say that is overly optimistic. what really matters now from the government point of view is what kind of support does government give during that period of a steep downturn to maximize the probability that we come out of it very strongly? that then comes down to the various measures around the soft loans, for example, the government, bank of england could be underwriting. up to 80% guarantees on those loans for small businesses. it is also around, how do you protect people jobs? the government has introduced furlough schemes. instead of laying off workers,

firms are essentially able to park them still as employees, but not working with the government paying a proportion of their wages and similar kind of support for the self-employed workers, of home there are around 5 million in the u.k. areas in are critical the economy that need attention? i don't know if it is areas that have been forgotten. what are we missing? what else needs to be done to make sure that these businesses basically don't go bust? mel: ok, so the big challenge is that we are -- and it's an overused term for appropriate -- we are in unprecedented times. where the government has underwritten wages in the economy here, that while pride probably to around 10 million workers -- that will apply probably to around 10 million workers. you have to have a system of getting that money in. you have to do a lot of work to

get an input, an intervention at that kind of scale. what happens when governments get into these positions is two things. they have hard edges which need to be worked on or refined for a time but there is very little time. when i mention getting soft loans out to businesses, the experience in the u.k. has been that that has not been happening fast enough and the government has had to react and adjust policy in that area. it is all moving so quickly and at such a scale that the delivery is a major issue. -- look at those furthered you look at the furloughed workers came, tax authorities aim to be in a position by the end of this month to be paying about -- paying out to about $10 million -- 10 million people who have been parked on a furlough scheme. ,t involves a big i.t. project

a huge number of individuals and interactions and it needs government moving at pace. therein lie the challenges. my community -- committee is looking very closely at those issues to see what progress can be made. francine: i know you have asked the association of british insurers to provide evidence to the committee. do you worry about clients, that if these claims are paid out, if the government is not more involved, there will be a systemic issue with insurance? mel: know, i don't think that's going to happen, because when it comes to most is this interruption policies that businesses and others have entered into with the insurance sector, typically, this kind of event has been excluded. i don't think my committee will be seeking some kind of blanket retrospective revision of those policies. that iuld be the time think would cause, shall we say, stress on the insurance sector. we are not in that situation.

we are more interested in making sure where it is a little bit gray as to why a business how to close down, is it due to the virus or what was the government's particular approach at that point? whether they should shut or not or they did it of their own volition. we think it's very important that insurance companies up to the plate and help those businesses. mel stride, thank you so much for joining us. coming up, we will have plenty more on your markets. we also have a great conversation with the wells fargo chief financial officer as we continue to look at the banks. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." this is what your markets are doing. again, the focus will be quite a lot on what the iea said, which is we will still see a glut when it comes to demand. demand is falling. despite the opec-plus agreement, there is still going to be a surplus. wti crude falling to $19.20 per barrel, the lowest level since 2002. we had the iea coming out about 20 minutes ago. we also had news that yesterday donald trump met with a lot of these airlines.

the airlines is something we on, to keep an eye especially in the u.s. airlines will receive some $5.8 billion in support and loans. 3.2hwest will get some billion dollars, united, delta, jetblue, frontier, allegiant, skywest also participating in the program. airline shares rose in after-hours trading. you can see in premarket, they are also gaining between 6% and 8%. coming up, a lot more of president trump and his feud with the world health organization. this is bloomberg. ♪ awesome internet.

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can your internet do that? xfinity xfi can because it's... ...simple, easy, awesome. [ barking ] francine: this is "numbers surveillance." there is quite a lot going on coming to the markets.

a lot of the focus is on oil. wti crude falling to $19.2 a barrel, the lowest level since 2002. plenty more on that, but let's get to first word news in new york city with viviana hurtado. viviana: we begin with coronavirus related deaths in europe, now topping 50,000. thoseand spain are among easing some restrictions. certain local shops are set to reopen in italy as long as they maintain social distancing rules. madrid under fire for letting construction work resume, the easing "reckless" according to critics. the greatbatch on recession will be the deepest in almost a century. -- therning coming from global retraction and subsequent recovery is said to be worse than forecast.

will the gdp will shrink 3%. that would be the deepest fall since the great depression of the 1930's. >> if things are improving in the second half, continuing the way they are now, then we are looking at severe downside scenario. we have constructed scenarios that global growth could fall to -6% in 2020, and that will be a time when financial connections -- conditions will be touched tighter than we see now. saying: facilities surplus oil could be exhausted by the middle of this year. the iea saying crude will plunge by a record 9% this year. why? coronavirus lockdown. that is the equivalent of wiping out a decade of demand growth in one year. we end with former president barack obama stepping back into presidential politics. he has endorsed joe biden and is urging voters to join what he

called a great awakening. former president obama issuing a 12 minute video endorsement, promising to join the campaign trail soon. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in i'm than 120 countries, viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. francine? viviana, thanks so much. the president trump press conference, late at night, london time, have been pretty entertaining. president trump saying he will temporarily cut off funding to the world health organization. he accused it of taking china's claim about the coronavirus at face value, also of refusing to share information as it spread. w.h.o. is the single biggest funder, contribute almost $900 billion to the operations in its current two funding cycle. pres. trump: today i am a

chuxing my administration to halt -- i am instructing my administration to halt funding as it health organization continues to assess its role in mismanaging and covering up the spread of the coronavirus. francine: that was president trump talking yesterday. let's get to annmarie hordern in new york. does this play well with his base? we are in the election year, and i know a lot of the campaigning in many states has stopped. but if he says it is their fault, i have done everything i can to contain the virus, does it play well ahead of the elections? annmarie: as you mentioned, the press conference yesterday, a lot was dedicated to what president trump said about the world health organization, the fact that he wants to halt funding.

it plays to his base in the sense that the base has been putting pressure on him to blame china, and they are able to do that through the world health organization because donald trump blames them for taking what china said about the virus at "face value." the united states is the biggest when it comes to membership dues to the world health organization, but president trump wants to cut act funding. a remains to be seen if he can even do that. the membership dues are authorized by congress, and already we have democrats coming out and saying the president has no authority to do this. that it is up to congress, and he is delaying dues to the world health organization as a tactic. we have not heard from the world health organization, but the u.n. secretary general says now is not the time to reduce these resources to the w.h.o. he says later on is when we will do an investigation into the

spread of the pandemic. francine: what can you tell us about polls? how is he doing versus joe biden? annmarie: right now president say joe bidenld is doing well when you look at what happened over the weekend, and the polls from wisconsin. he and wisconsin is able to beat bernie sanders, bernie sanders in 2016 beat the hopeful clinton, and in michigan last month, joe biden won against bernie sanders, and bernie sanders in michigan was able to beat clinton. president donald trump in the past things has been doing fairly well. people tune into them and they want to see them. francine: thank you so much, annmarie hordern with the latest on the feud between president trump the world health organization. the race to find a vaccine against coronavirus continues. lasso smithkline has joined --

glaxo smith kline has joined for trials this year. the chief executive officer said that when vaccine is not enough. today whatannounced we think is an unprecedented partnership of two of the world's biggest companies in vaccines, leaders and vaccines, with proven technologies in pandemic vaccination, whether the adjutant that we used successfully in the last pandemic. and exactly as you said, the key event adjutant is that it youies the adjutant -- it can get more volume and therefore protecting more people sooner. if we are successful, there is an enormous amount of work to do

in the early stages. but if we are successful and able to accelerate the timeline votes, we should be able to get hundreds of millions of doses by the end of next year. that still means the world is going to need more than one successful vaccine. this is one of seven partnerships we have announced around the world and we wish every success to the other candidates that are developing here. so lots to do, but clearly it is getting a vaccine that is safe and works and the scale is our number one priority. >> let's just talk about the scaling. where do you see it being manufactured? presumably this will need to be manufactured around the world. where does the current manufacturing facility -- where does the manufacturing facility exist that will allow you to

scale it quick enough? emma: we are in trimming the adjutant here come and you're completely right that to get -- we are contributing the adjutant here, and you're completely right. we are expecting manufacturing in the u.s., europe, potentially even the u.k., something that is under ongoing review at the moment, something that we would have to prepare with a degree of capacity at risk, and our goal, i'm sure with the vaccines that will come forward from us and others, to make sure that we can support access globally, initially to those that most urgently needed, the most vulnerable and the most exposed, but also to make sure that we have access not just in developed economies but in some of those developing economies that are going to be very hard hit by this. with vulnerable

health care systems. >> you said you will be equitable when it comes to supplying poorer countries. how will you make that work? well, this is a global ,hallenge of epic proportion and again, the world will need more than one vaccine to make sure that we can supply everybody that needs it. and, you know, our goal, sh this initialion partnership, we hope to engage as urgently as possible with global governments, but also on gsk side in terms of our crossing our collaborations, we do expect to donate a certain -- will do this by governments and institutions

that are committed to access, particularly supporting delivery in the first line. that means in developed markets, we will also be pricing responsibly as we have a good track record of doing. francine: that was the chief f gsk speaking with us earlier. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg

surveillance." let's get straight to bloomberg first word news in new york city with viviana hurtado. viviana: we begin with asml. it says it cannot provide guidance for the second quarter, but it hints it could see a significantly more profitable quarter. it is a supplier to taiwan and china's semiconductor. it sees no changes due to the coronavirus up rate. u.s. airlines agreed to a deal with the u.s. treasury department to access $25 billion in aid. the deal covers a major -- all american major carriers. thanwest will be paid more $3 billion. the industry is expected to burn through $10 billion to $12 billion per month. now to airbnb. it raised another $1 billion in debt with the global coronavirus pandemic crushing demand for

travel and diminishing the prospect of an ipo. i'm sharing company has been shoring up finances. bloomberg understands airbnb source the debt from investors including silverlake and blackrock. we end with oaktree capital howard marks. the investor known for buying up debt of troubled businesses says the troubled central bank is protecting investors and companies from the consequences of their actions. he says when they take on too much averages, businesses are shielded. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine? francine: thank you so much, that the on hurtado, in new york. -- viviana hurtado in new york. we understand that germany will likely extend the national lockdown measures until may 3. germany also one of the first countries mulling possible easing, but for the moment they are extending. we know that angela merkel, the chancellor, will speak to

various regional governors today to figure out the next step. let's go to james athey, senior investment manager at aberdeen investment management. we saw the spread widening italian -- and german bunds. is that all with their ability to handle the pandemic? james: i think what we are seeing -- to be honest, the conversation is quite similar to the broad market conversation we are having, which is to say that this coronavirus pandemic and the economic stop that it has led to is just exposing existing fragility's, and i think specifically with respect to the they would have met and their darkest moments, and there are serious structural issues that need to be dealt with in the medium to long-term. what we're seeing is just an expose, if you like, of some of

those issues. the ultimate end goal for a monetary union without fiscal union, without political union is that they need to go further and deeper or there will be difficult conversations and the market is going to have to increasingly price again the notion of redenomination risk. francine: where does he value, given what you just said, fixed income? james: across the whole fixed income piece, i think core yields are of relatively attractive in a world where central banks are buying them in unprecedented size depending on which central bank you are looking at. it easy to unprecedented or somewhere beyond unprecedented, but is still seems to me what we have seen in the last few days and weeks, with risk assets recovering strongly, but doing so largely because of central bank actions. in that environment, yields have been dragged a little higher but not aggressively so.

the core of the bond yield offers you the best of something called nothing, really. the central banks are ramping down -- our damping down volatility and liquidity, and that should be supportive of bonds because of the nature of bond buying programs. the central banks have not been able to take all risk out of the system. we have seen risk asset prices reflected in what is a dire reality going forward, and that should see bud yields falling. francine: james athey, thanks so much. he stays with us. coming up, our interview with the chief economist of the imf. that is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> our baseline is that the crisis, the epidemic, will be concentrated in the second quarter for most countries in the world, and containment measures are not to be concentrated in the second quarter, than there will be a graduate removal after that. we will start seeing initial signs of a recovery in the second half.

we also have more return scenarios. >> let's talk about where you see that more pronounced. do you see that being led in countries like china, like the united states, and is it a first in first out situation,? a: china was impacted in the first quarter. we are seeing signs of recovery, but there is no indication that there is business as usual. what matters is what is happening in the rest of the world. while containment measures are coming off in china, there are still severe lock downs in many parts of the world, and that could be extended and emerging markets are still at the beginning of this whole pandemic. so for the global economy as a whole, it matters a lot what is happening everywhere in the world. but if our baseline is right, that most of this will be concentrated in the first half, then we should start seeing stronger recoveries starting in the second half of this year.

jonathan: in an environment like this, struggling with the same thing, how difficult is it to throw out a forecast when you have no real president right now -- reopening or establishing globalization. this is really unprecedented. usually we like to rely on historical data to come up with projections. when you don't have that, it is hard to do. when you don't have a shock like a housing crisis or the bursting of the financial bubble, that is something we have seen in the past. here we have to rely on public elf officials to tell us how the virus will evolve, that on public officials to tell us how -- on public officials to tell us how the virus evolves. some sectors are much more severely hit than others. and those will be travel, tourism, and entertainment. if you are a country that relies heavily on these sectors for your growth, they are going to be very badly hit. but this is not just a health

crisis, it is also a financial crisis and a commodity price collapse. big magnifies things with commercial and capital flows under currency pressures with a complex crisis. jonathan: i don't think we have really quite understood the shot to em yet, and i don't think we have really seen the wave, the shockwave through em back into the global economy just yet. what are you expecting to see play out in emerging markets in the coming months? gita: i actually see that as one very major downside risk to our baseline, which is things could get a whole lot worse in emerging markets. now, we are assuming in our baseline that emerging markets will have a more severe health crisis than what we are seeing right now, but not at the same level as what we have seen in the euro area or the u.s., in terms of at least containment measures. that could be changing, it could be very different. secondly, a big collapse in the

coming months, a big reversal of capital flows in their economies. and if you are a commodity exposure, you have a drop in commodity prices. these can compound the problem, so i think that is one area where the downside risks are severe, and why it is very important for the international community to pay very close attention to emerging markets and low income countries. francine: gita gopinath. we are back with james athey. james, what do you do with emerging markets right now? james: that is a really tough one, to be honest. i think they really -- a number of the countries that make up that sort of sector of the market really have got some serious challenges ahead. again, what the virus has done, is it has exposed existing ies.ilit

time formost the ideal these economies to get their houses in order. you had strong growth coming from china via commodities and commodity prices. we know a lot of these are resourced in intensive economies, and what we have seen is fragility increasing, lots of dollar debt, dollar borrowing without necessarily the assets being used on the other. we have seen a lot of the deficits getting bigger with external deficits, so right here, right now, it is going to be a huge challenge. i think what is fortunate for a lot of these economies is at the moment they do not have a huge amount of inflation. there is more traditional monetary policy response, which is to say cut rates. so i don't think necessarily the bond markets are -- we have seen them outflow and the initial shock theory a few weeks back. it actually those bonds should

be supported by monetary policy going forward, but that means the fx is going to have to play a role as the automatic stabilizer, as the release valve, and they will just have to hope that the lockdown period does not go on too much longer because otherwise their financing needs are really going to be a lot of pressure. i think essentially the imf is going to have to be a part of the solution for sure. francine: james athey, thank you so much, senior asset manager at aberdeen asset management. have a great conversation with a guest saying despite what opec has done, they still see demand. looking at the prices of oil, they are down 10%. oil slumping, a drop in u.s. futures. we will talk about that with tom keene next. this is bloomberg. ♪ these days you need faster internet that does all you

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francine: president trump halts funding to the w.h.o. he says the organization took china's coronavirus claims at face value. bank earnings season ramps up with goldman sachs, citigroup, and bank of america all reporting. provisions due to the pandemic will be watched after j.p. morgan set aside the most cash in a decade. and u.s. airlines come to an agreement with the treasury department to access billions of dollars in aid. it is a temporary lifeline as the industry waits for customers to travel again. well, good morning, good afternoon, good evening, everyone. depending on where you are in francine, as always, from london, tom in new york. first, the iea come on the back of the headlines from the iea, the price of brent wti phil to the lowest since 2002 -- fell to the lowest in's two and they expected to fall much farther.