this morning, it took four months for one million cases of the virus. the next one million took 12 days. a primal scream from global health officials for more testing. 8:30 theonsider at best short-term indicator of our economic collapse, new jobless claims tragically in the many millions. marylandessman from calls it a banana republic. president trump desires the dissolution of congress. everyone, this survivingnce." we are and thrilled you are with us worldwide and across the nation this morning. i look at all that is going on and i guess the update here is one shock of larger economic

contraction than anyone realized , and the statistics on this pandemic are not all that good, are they? francine: now, they are not great. we have that horrific figure of 2 million people infected worldwide, however we are seeing the u.s., germany, and others thinking about relaxing the rules. it is different in japan where they are talking about a state of emergency. today, overall the initial claim tally is said to push the four-week total to 22 million people without a job. we will spend time talking about that, and we have a headline from apple. i just got the air pods. apple plans over a year headphones to bolster business working from home.

tom: we have seen apple with product announcements including the smaller i found in the last lasturs, -- iphone in the 48 hours and they are separated from the collapse in small-cap. right now, here is viviana hurtado. viviana: donald trump will unveil today plans to relax stay-at-home guidelines and suggests the coronavirus is flatlining in parts of the country, yesterday speaking with more than 200 business media -- leaders. more testing needs to be put into place before people feel comfortable coming to work. he may use an untested power to make both houses of congress adjourned. the president complaining the democrats are holding up nominees for jobs, but most of the jobs are open because no one

has been nominated to fill them. the trump administration may pay oil producers to leave crude and the ground. a proposal from the energy department would make part of stockpilend emergency part of the oil reserve. the plan is aimed at easing a glut. it is expected to extend its nationwide lockdown. dominic raab will make the call, standing in for boris johnson who is recovering from the coronavirus. there are signs the u.k. may be past the worst of the pandemic. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. tom: thank you so much, greatly appreciated. equities, bonds, currencies,

commodities. off the terminal on my cell phone, faster than the terminal. 41.56 and green on the screen, a pretty good market. futures up 10 and noticed dollar strength. -- notice dollar strength. what do you see? francine: the laptop is pretty fast. curbs.. is extending through.tering ,tocks and futures are rising investors seeking to gauge the extent of the damage by coronavirus and waiting for the next set of economic data, jobless figures later on. christine lagarde coming out with some headlines. the ecb will do everything necessary within its mandate,

and they are accepting further requests for euro swap lines. fromgine that extends health sharing of information and resources as well as economic. tom: i am glad you bring it up. this is sort of a daily basis, and one of the tranches of alphabet soup of assistance from the united states of government, we will run out of that pot of money today or tomorrow. the speed of change we see including madame lagarde's comments, extraordinary. one of the most qualified people i know to link in the profit atlosion, steven wieting citigroup working in strategy and linking profit and stock market performance into the greater economy. thank you for joining us. how much have you had to change

your outlook? how far away from january 31 are you now? steven: very, very far away. we are expecting the u.s. economy to contract more than 4% in 2020, and we think that the current quarter, the second quarter -- if you think about it would fall about 10% in level. gdp data is an annualized contraction of about 40%. we have got to remember that this is again an exhaustion a shock. the econ -- exile janice shock. us shock.o the prolonged downturn of 2008/2009, this is shutting the economy down.

if you think about a construction metaphor, it is always faster to demolish than to rebuild. the come back, we could have rapid growth rates but that exaggerates. when that drops, you get growth rates that sound appealing but the level of profits will be a long time before they are back to the levels of 2019. tom: why do we see the character of the stock market, selective stocks doing great but the lift off the bottom we have seen if you have given me the worst economic review i have ever heard? steven: that is the worst one, ok. as a starting point, the timing for which markets would recover, if you believe our outlook that we have shut the economy down late in the first quarter and most of the second quarter, and

there is some partial falling rebound in the third quarter and beyond, the timing for risky assets to start rising is now. it is fairly soon. the question is level and which assets. this type of economic contraction is extremely mean to main street, to small businesses, to firms that have a low level of capital at hand to work off to stay in business. it has a terrible economic effect. theome other respects, digital economy, the economy e-commerce, the retail sales report, department stores crushed. e-commerce soaring. there is great dispersion and financial markets have priced that dispersion. that has been beneficial to

large-cap u.s. shares more than any other in the world. francine: what is worse for the economy, reopening and having to close if there are a number of infections and debt that rise, or keeping it closed for longer? reopeningwould say just having to shut it down would be worse in many respects, particularly financial markets. having a distinct low point could help financial markets and i cannot say what is the rate public policy. i am not sure it is one or the other, that until there is an effective widespread vaccine we will not go back to what we were before, and there will be changes, things we learn and adapt to. having social distancing with an economy that is open, being able to go to a restaurant, being

able to be at different tables with different patrons further apart, that is different than now where you cannot go at all. there has got to be some middle ground we will find our bay back to. -- find our way back to. it depends on how strong the testing is and people who built can you and -- immunity seems reasonable to me. francine: how will our economies be changed forever? what will be the legacy? steven: it may accelerate some chain -- trends that have existed. when you think about telemedicine, videoconferencing, i am not on a video conference at the moment with you, but the point is we are doing a tremendous amount. when you think about the extent of travel that we have, whether

that is ground transportation or air transportation, we are not going to take virtual holidays, but the amount of business travel i doubt will be the same in the future, and that is just one. this trend of digitization, which was powerful before in that part of the economy and the virtual world we live in will be even stronger. tom: you are very prescient to , as weout the digital have statements from mr. bezos from amazon. -- theirep will be next step will be testing of all staff and they are working with the world health organization to track and understand the virus, with their challenges in france where they literally shut down their operation. they are worried about safety.

later, morgan stanley earnings and erik schatzker in conversation with mr. gorman. from london and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ tom: good morning, bloomberg "surveillance." with us from citi, steven wieting. as a general rule with winners and losers, do i want to be left diversified now? do i want to attempt a concentration in things i hope will be successful? steven: i think that has been our strategy for the last couple

of months, that certain industries will be the right ones, that you would rather be a poorly capitalized medical mask maker then being a well-capitalized airline. in a sense, we would put the sector impact first, strong balance sheets in line, and i would just say that there has been so much dispersion in pricing in the last couple of sector, onefavorite of our unstoppable themes has been investing longevity, invest in the health care sector. american health care is the biggest sector in the u.s. stock market, so having those investments in the health care sector has obviously played to this particular crisis, or any economic slump where it is not

cyclical. at the same time, the declines in those shares which probably areld not be declining, modest. you have to revolve the portfolio and start taking more risk in time now that we have had this big turn. not everybody is happy, it is not low enough for them. the usual complaints. francine: what do you do with gold? that goes to whether you see the pandemic being deflationary or disinflationary. steven: we have been overweight gold coming into the crisis as a risk hedge and added further to gold above our tactical recommendations even further in the month of february. the performance has been strong, but as you can see, it has performed so well and you just have to remember this is also a

risk asset. our fundamental view here is that it is asymmetric in terms of its pricing. conditions of strong u.s. outperformance and higher real interest rates would push down gold. that combination of eventually succeeding, having the federal reserve stay easy for a long time, which is the playbook they have argued, will get us declines in the dollar which will be favorable for gold. a great deal has worked out in the market already and it has outperformed strongly. compared to many things investors might do with active hedging with derivatives, that if you are not doing that, gold is a great backstop. francine: thank you so much, steven wieting. bloomberg,ater on

guy johnson in conversation with the airbus chief executive. they will talk about fleets, the pandemic, and when we see a new normal with airlines. this is blue. -- this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone, bloomberg "surveillance." it is

unusual to do this. we are focused on the pandemic and this economic contraction, but once in a while something happens in america that is absolutely extraordinary. translates, our chief washington correspondent. the gentleman of harvard law review mr. raskin said yesterday this is a banana republic. he did that when the president decided he would provide for a dissolution of congress. what was the response of your sources, republican and democrat, to the idea than any president would adjourn congress? kevin: i think there is confusion, to put it in plain speak, and here is why. yesterday when i was talking with people about how lawmakers

are going to be able to convene to respond to the needs of the country from an economic perspective, there is also this issue of practicality, how will they vote? differents really no than what businesses around the world are grappling with, how do lawmakers and policymakers essentially work from home? we have seen this play out in the congressional institute but also with the coop -- supreme you will be hearing tell arguments over the next months. withovernment is arguing the business community and out to work with the tele-communicative process and working from home. francine: how is president trump being judged on his efforts with covid-19? if the economy reopens too soon

and has to close, will that penalize him for the election? kevin: that is the $64,000 question and this is where i focus on battleground states like michigan. yesterday, i spoke on bloomberg radio with the former spokesperson for the state department in the obama administration who later became thepress secretary and said obama campaign is going to have to -- this is an economic election. they will have to put forth an economic agenda for those battleground states because the president is saying that absolutely he wants to reopen portions of the economy. he is making that political calculation that come november, he can say in a debate stage he wanted to open up the economy

and open borders and that will be the heart of what republicans will be saying. biden will have to craft a message to working-class america in a massive economic downturn. tom: kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. we look at the data in our 6:00 our. 8:30, jobless claims. yesterday was what it was and today, a rebound day with the vix in the 41 area. lots going on. francine, what do you see in the data? francine: i am looking at what europe is doing. andad data from europe, what we heard from christine lagarde is having an impact on the common currency. further requests for swap lines and she says she will do

everything she can. tom: i am glad you bring up the ecb swap lines and you wonder if that is a precursor of a light coordination of what we could see. coming up, we have been talking to health experts around the nation and focusing on johns hopkins university with their clear statistic leadership. jason farley will join us from johns hopkins with his expertise on the trenches, on what is going on with physicians and nurses. stay with us worldwide. this is bloomberg. ♪

suggests nationwide, we are past the peak on new cases. hopefully that will continue and

we will continue to make great progress. these encouraging developments have put us in a strong position to finalize guidelines on reopening the country, which we will be announcing, talking about that tomorrow. we will be announcing guidelines and talking about various dates and it is very exciting. it has been a horrible time to see such death and destruction. was president donald trump hinting that new guidelines for stay-at-home rules. the disease is showing time -- signs of plateauing. business.t, says more coronavirus testing needs to be in place before people feel comfortable coming back to work. he spoke to more than 200 business owners about reopening the company and will come out

with guidelines. joe biden blasting the president for having what he calls temper tantrums, urging president trump to set a better example for the country and calling on the president to further mobilize the country to fight coronavirus pandemic. the city is expecting the economy -- citi is expecting the economy to crater. they are estimating 485,000 jobs will be lost. is this year, new york's gdp likely to decline 4.5%. the city had been expecting the economy to grow 1.8%. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. thank you so much.

breaking headlines on the bloomberg terminal, we need to spend a bit of time on it, zine a billiono seek dollars in credit lines and we from bigar amounts companies that need extra funding. as we continue to track the developed aberg has unique partnership with one of the leading institutions, looking at the figures and the number of those infected and an authority on covid-19. johns hopkins has been on the for freight and every day we will bring you -- on the front line and every day we will bring you updates. we are pleased to bring you jason farley from the johns hopkins school of nursing. what do we understand about the percentage of people that become

critically ill? do we have that data? how much does it impact us? jason: yes, we know we are looking at how many people become critically ill. approximately 20% of people hospitalized, needing some form group,e care and of that approximately half will need mechanical ventilation. those tend to skew toward the older population and we are still seeing that data consistent with what we have seen around the world. francine: the response team in the u.s. and around the world, did they have enough equipment in the with the virus coming weeks and months? jason: the administration has supportstarted to offer to the states in trying to get

more ppe. there have been herculean efforts by various governors across the united states to bring in more masks, gowns, gloves, and face shields. that has been different across states, as you have seen reporting. different governors have had to personal barter protective agreement from various agencies, including going overseas to obtain masks from china and other countries. in my home state of maryland, 95e governor has launched an n reprocessing saying center -- center to reuse the masks.

we are being very resilient to make sure we have enough ppe's. tom: you are expert in the ep dme allergy of infectious -- epidemiology of infectious diseases and johns hopkins has done the best job in a regional, city, nationwide epidemiology and study of statistics. the second derivatives for some of these regions, california, florida, they are not very good. new jersey, it is not happening. tell us about the diffuse meant fusement of a dif virus from the hot spots into the greater public. what in your experience? jason: when we talk about hotspots, that is where we have

ongoing replication of the virus and transmission of the virus. when we know what the in factvity potential -- in ty potential for a virus is, for every person affected, they will affect two and a half to three people with the virus. hotspots allow the propagation to continue in an ongoing basis. the trickle effect bleeding out into other locales, a perfect example is rhode island. they have had cases coming in from new york state and connecticut and was not deemed a hotspot, but because of migration and contract -- contact, it has started to see

bleed over. tom: interesting, jason farley, thank you so much. he is in nursing at johns hopkins university. this is something we are trying to do from day one as we became aware of this epidemic which became a pandemic. it started with talking to experts around the world and we are thrilled to have a close relationship with johns hopkins university, including the bloomberg school of public health, the philanthropy of michael bloomberg. he is the founder of bloomberg lp. nt to direct you to vrus on the terminal. this is bloomberg. ♪

everyone,morning, bloomberg "surveillance." at 8:30, jobless claims. one of the great jules on linked on linked in -- ian shepherdson joins us now. is millions on a thursday. go beyond that. what is the chart that matters for weekly claims and what it means for the american economy? ian: i am looking forward rather than looking back because one of

the tools we have is google search data on people filing for unemployment. conditions and give us a look ahead to this morning and next week. the number of people searching for how to file for unemployment is dropping sharply, so although today's number will be horrendous it will not be as bad as last week, and next week will be substantially lower. the layoffs have been sudden and immediate and unlike previous recession intent -- events. that tells me things will be dramatically less terrible within a couple of weeks. i do not want to say good, but certainly the 6 million we have had per week, i think they are over. tom: you go state-by-state and

two or three weeks ago i did the importance of pennsylvania. give us the color of state dynamics of larger economies like california or pennsylvania or texas. is that broad rule states which imposed lockdowns earlier are narrow -- now seeing more rapid improvements in claims. we get daily data from a few states and weekly data in advance of the official numbers from arizona, and those numbers have all fallen over the last couple of weeks. this is a clear shift. the shift is bigger and i expect when we get the official data, the shift will be bigger in the states that imposed the lockdowns earlier. it seems to be a universal story followed by the

unemployment seems to be a pattern everywhere. andlockdowns actually work we are seeing that clearly in ,taly and spain and austria which after some horrendous numbers are starting to reopen gradually. reopen, u.s. starts to we will see jobless claims numbers dropping rapidly. we will not see a sudden return of all these lost jobs. it will be gradual. francine: how long will the recovery take? not reopen fully before september. in the next six months does it go back to normal or are there jobs that will be lost forever? ian: there will be jobs lost in the services sector and consumer

goods sector. newou are going to buy a house or car, chances are that will be deferred, but for the arvices sector which rely on constant throughput of transactions, if you are a restaurant you need your regulars to come every week and if they do not come in the second quarter they will probably not come twice as much in the third quarter to make up for it. that will reverberate up the supply chain and job losses will not quickly recover. economy -- the chances of the economy being back to where it would be is almost nil. where it ended up and where it will end up could be smaller depending on what congress does. the private sector is effectively dead and there will

be further stimulus from congress. the fourth package will come, the sooner the better, the bigger the better. no matter what they do, the dislocation of the business sector has happened and will not be possible for that to reverse quickly. there will be permanent lasting damage unfortunately. francine: what are you most worried about? bankruptcies or companies that just do not get over this? is it more on the impact on inflation and possible deflation? ian: we will have both. deflationary pressure is evident in some sectors. you look at the collapse in airline fares and hotel room rates. what will happen with prices for restaurant meals because there is no restaurant

sector. inflationp in pressure moving to deflation pressure. it is a question of dislocation with a partial offset from government rescue money. i don't think the government rescue program is done yet but it is more likely to be small and medium-size businesses through the net and ultimately sale. this may be what pushes them over the edge. you lose the supply chain that you cannot easily recover. this is not a regular process of cyclical creative destruction. this is just destruction. there is no creative side to this and that is why it is so important the government steps in with more money to limit the destruction so we can be more creative. tom: you more than anyone i

know, i suggest the great economist john writing as well, are not from london, are from up north, and you understand the of the unitedk kingdom and the public sector helping in crisis. england did that well. it is the antithesis of the united states. do you suggest in this crisis we will get a little clement not leave in us and see washington provide forher -- the greater good? ian: it is essential because without it it would be a wasteland once the virus is gone. sticks,tion is how much to what extent does the u.s. which ise demand that

expanding now remains? do people vote for prayers -- progressives who will try to push through permanent changes for parental leave and sick pay for people who cannot work? resemble --ted to will it start to resemble more of a european system? right now, the u.s. is moving towards that european model and the really big question is whether having moved there, it is possible to move back. conservative politicians are always making noises about wanting to move back but i don't know whether the public will want that, will they vote for it again. tom: this will be a theme forward. we are thrilled ian shepherdson can join us. it was a thrill to interview the vice chairman of the thread --

fed with michael mckee. he will redux that this morning in the 12:00 hour with robert kaplan of the dallas fed. this is a different fed president from a different geography. please stay with us. this is blue. -- this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: you are watching bloomberg "surveillance." robin hood is close to raising funding. it would be valued at about eight billion dollars. investors led by sequoia capital plan to invest $350 million. robin hood has had repeated outages but revenue growth. hitvalue of gold could $2000. level ofr says the stimulus injected into the economy underpins gold prices which is that a seven-year high -- at a seven-year high at more

than $1700. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: bank earnings, three or four of the big wall street ones with a similar direction but different trading statements. we are looking for morgan stanley earnings in about a half an hour. williams.to alison great to have you on the program. how will morgan stanley differ from bank of america or jp morgan? --son: we will see a big provision so even goldman sachs ,hat has an increased lending one billion for them, about 25 billion across the banks. togan stanley sticking research brokerage so we will see some marks but nothing compared to the last crisis.

we think that is something investors have savored in recent weeks. of the thingserms we are focusing on, are you expecting trading for ficc and equity to be similar to their --als or alison: we are focusing on and equity jump. equity derivatives has been a major focus across banks. fixed income trading business is closer to goldman and less like jp morgan, bank of america, and citi in the sense that they do not have the same corporate base. we think there fixed income might not be as strong but that is not as important to them strategically. the other thing is the wealth business.

have done ans, they great job bringing that up but they have have a lot of market help. they may take a step back this quarter and we saw that at bank of america merrill lynch's business. francine: where their predictions we heard from the wall street banks -- the predictions we heard from the wall street banks pessimistic enough? alison: they were pessimistic in the sense that what they are all saying is we don't know. this is marv a risk for lending type it -- more of a risk for lending type businesses like jp morgan, citi, and bank of america where they take huge provisions and are not sure there will be enough, versus goldman sachs and morgan stanley where they do not have that risk. there is a lot of uncertainty around the markets and m&a is

something you asked about. acrossbeen a weak spot fx. sort of a stall in closing deals and the concern is as the pandemic impacts the world economy, will you see a hurt to the pipeline? even though we hear a lot about bankers talking, we are not seeing execution and as long as you have the uncertainty that is helping to fuel trading, it is having a negative impact. francine: thank you so much, alison williams. ♪

♪ alix: all three earning. results out and about 15

minutes, closing out reports for the big banks. jobless jolt. estimates for initial jobless claims from last week range from 2 million to 8 million. and just covered in oil. opec releasing its monthly report as some crude sales were single digits in the u.s. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: americas" on this thursday, april 16. in the market, one of the headlines in the last couple of hours was christine lagarde's own whatever it takes policy. take a look at euro-dollar. you can see the lows of the session, as she says the governing council is committed to doing everything necessary within its mandate to assist through the crisis. in other asset, feels like what was gone tomorrow is here