unlimited buying of government bonds and ramps up purchases of debt. toope outlines plans emerge from lockdown. and deutsche bank's surprise profit. revenues beat estimates, while earnings season is now in full swing. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: americas" on this monday, april 27. i'm alix steel. let's get right to it. we had softer futures overnight, and then the bank of japan taking off any restrictions on government bond buying. i saw one note that said the event of japan purchases note is no bigger than all of japan's gdp, so that is leading optimism in the market, although not a weaker yen. oil again taken out to the woodshed, particularly in the u.s., down by almost three dollars. it is time for all the market moving news you need to know on wall street from new york, as

well as in london. we begin with a biggie week -- a busy week for central banks. bank of japan says they will take on unlimited buying of government bonds, lifting the cap also on corporate holdings. i, he joins us now. , kitchen sink, we are still throwing it. michael: central banks are all as string the question of what you do when you have throwing the kitchen sink. in the back of japan's case, you just make the sink a little bigger. the bank of japan already has negative rates, corporate bond and etf buying, and an emergency lending program, so they just decided to make those programs a bit bigger. unchanged at rate -10 basis points. remember, they do yield curve control. they mentioned they would buy as many corporate bonds as they need to and expanding access to

its emergency loan program for a wider range of banks. for analysts, there's a bit less here than meets the eye. they dropped their ¥80 trillion limit on government bond buying, but they weren't buying anywhere trillion, so it doesn't mean all that much other than psychological. what is significant is that the boj in its statement dropped its guidance for momentum toward achieving the price stability target. in other words, their 2% inflation rate target. that suggests they are totally focused now on the current crisis. we might mention they lowered their growth forecast. -5% to -3%,0 growth 2021 2.8% to 3.5% positive.

the ecb on thursday. we will see what they do with their kitchen sink. alix: and how big they can get. thanks so much. bloomberg's dani burger joins me now. governments are meeting plans to partially reopen their economies as virus infections and deaths continue to slow. walk us through different plans, how they are being received, with any warning signs we are hearing as well. dani: there's definitely an unevenness to this, but when you look at the hardest hit countries, italy and spain, even they are signaling tentative moves to open up their economies. italy starts to ease restrictions next week. it is going to be phase one that starts with construction and manufacturing as the first allowed to restart. for ain, they are going much more stringent base for that. people will be allowed to go on

walks and exercise for the first time really since the lockdown began. theye, greece, germany, are all starting the first phase of reopening as well. hairdressersops, reopening, and germany is reopening some schools. in the u.k., boris johnson is back on his first day on the job since contracting the virus himself. he has warned that lifting these lockdowns could risk a second spike, sewer definitely getting a difference in opinion on how to ease off restrictions, but one thing is for sure, bad news is certainly being embraced by investors. we can't talk about european stocks without addressing deutsche bank, another important story in europe today. it came out with results early. are full earnings on wednesday. it posted surprise profit in the

first quarter. analysts expected decline. that is likely helped out by the coronavirus induced volatility for trading revenue. tells yet. get that are going to wednesday. but we know they are setting aside about 500 million euros in loan loss provisions, also warning that they might not be their leverage insolvency targets. analysts have called the results reassuring come the stock surging as much as 12% at one point. rbc pointing out that the miss insolvency is concerning, but sees that is tipperary. -- sees that as temporary. we are also seeing rivals like bmp and socgen gaining as much as 4%, adding to those games that had already begun thanks to the easing of those restrictions. thanks a lot, bloomberg's

dani burger. ,or more on the economic impact bloomberg economics out with some fresh estimates. they call it an optimistic scenario that could still equal $6 trillion recession. check out the latest forecast and compare it to the ones just earlier. bloomberg economics cutting its 2020 estimate for global growth to -4%, and because of that lost output is the $6 trillion. stimulus packages will replace a substantial share of lost income. nonetheless, a big revision downward from where they were before. coming up, much more of your morning news, trade and analysis on the markets in today's first take. this is bloomberg. happy monday, everybody. ♪

♪ time now for bloomberg first take. we are going to give you the news, they trade and analysis on the markets. joining me from our team of wall street veterans and insiders, and damianee sassower. mike already laid out with the boj did overnight. we are waiting for the fed and the ecb. what are you waiting for in emerging markets? damian: i am looking to see if funding pressures are easing globally. think on friday we saw dollar libor-ois climb the most since the middle of march. three month libor saw the most in three years.

speculative's unmet treasury torts arthur lowest levels since 2017. is --ey narrow breadth net treasuries are the lowest level since 2017. alix: fairpoint. david coston writing about the lack of breadth within the headt, particularly as you into the tech season for earnings. christinemake lagarde's job a little easier on thursday because at least the funding stresses are working their way out? michael: it makes it easier for all central banks. i think you are seeing the programs the fed put into place in particular are starting to run and starting to be operational. the commercial paper funding facility which began last week,

almost a month after it was announced, has eased a lot of the pressure that i can get behind what is going on with dollar libor. if that continues, and makes it easier for the central banks because they have to worry less about unplugging the pipes and can focus more on stimulus, although it is still a little early for that. nobody really expects any of the central banks to do anything major. the bank of japan underwhelming analysts with a lot of words and not a lot of direct action at this point. the fed and ecb set to do the same thing. talk will be key, the idea that they will be talking up the economy and are set to do whatever they need to, but at this point, waiting for the economies to start reopening to see what kind of stimulus will help. today we start getting the next out. of ppp loans going the lines open this morning for people to try to get some sort of stimulus.

we will see how that works, and of some of the smaller companies who were left out last time get some money. alix: there's been so much heat on the money going to be wrong companies, so hopefully that will happen as well. you brought up dollar-yen. i am looking at the cross currency basis. if you are kuroda and have a stronger currency, that is not going to help the overall idea of what they need to accomplish. i wonder if the path of least resistance is going to be a weaker dollar, at least for the time being. damian: you would think. you would have thought that the dollar would strengthen relative to the end and all of that bond buying. but it really hasn't budged. i have to take a look at china. exercise thatng is going on in china. reluctantor is really to cut rates. it reinforces all of the concern in markets about the reemergence of inflation.

demand destruction is highly inflationary globally. the fact that the pboc isn't cutting and is really just allowing borrowers to just whateveryments on loans they have taken out really thatconcern, and i think is going to rise. we are expecting a 40% slump in profits amongst the big four china banks this year. alix: right, and it was so interesting because there was a chart on the bloomberg the talked about how the msci emerging market is much cheaper relative to european stocks, which is interesting because european stocks are going to get beaten up a lot. is there some kind of bid here in e.m.? damian: no, i don't think so. i hate looking at those kind of metrics when you look at e.m. equities because it fails to account for the liquidity equitieshat e.m.

have to pricing. the fact is e.m. equities are highly illiquid relative to develop market peers. me, 10 straight weeks of e.m. exchange traded fund outflows totaling over $12 billion, record issuance year to date, but that is doing little to placate the situation. capital outflows are on the rise out of e.m. alix: completely. and we will get to brazil in just a second. i feel like i can feel you chomping at the bit. it does bring up the interesting question of, when we look at the we areing day average, seeing a lot of money flow into money market funds, so it is not necessarily risk on, despite the fact that the stock market looks like it had a v-shaped recovery. michael: we are kind of getting back to the pattern we had much of last year, where the big tech companies are leading the way. tech is probably going to lead

the way out of this depression because it provides some of the answers to how you are going to do business in the future. if that is the case, you might as well put money into that. in general, the stock market overall a little disconnected from where we are in terms of the economy, but again, they are supposed to be forward discounting. they are supposed to look forward to what is going to happen. the question i have is how far forward are they really looking. a lot of people say the market is pricing for 2021. maybe that is the case and it does justify higher valuations because by then, we should, we hope, start to see a lasting rebound. we will get a little bit of a rebound later this year as we start to open up the economy. is it going to last? that is going to be the question. alix: we have of your comment nowng, "could we say by

that central banks can guarantee a stock market that will never go down again?" to your point, that it is not profits, but central banks that are going to be propping up the equity market. is that a statement we can finally believe? michael: it is one that is hard to say is wrong. the central banks would not like you to think that, but the experience of pretty much everybody on trading desks over the last 10 to 12 years, that has been the case. the so-called fed put is what everybody tends to rely on, the idea that there will always be liquidity out there to be invested. i don't see an end to that anytime soon because central banks don't really have a choice at this point. if you are an equity investor looking to put money to work, you've got it. alix: unless you are an emerging market central bank, and that is a whole different story. i can't believe you made it eight minutes without bringing up brazil. there's no political crisis, regardless of reserves or the

coronavirus. there is the justice minister issue. realave the brazilian close on friday. what are you looking at? damian: it reads like a soap opera. i spent the better part of a weekend reading on all that is going on in brazil. in the seen 30% declines real earlier, but that is for the equity index. it is over 50% year to date in dollar terms. what that indicates is that higher bolsonaro -- is that jair bolsonaro is putting a priority over social programs. we saw the justice minister resigning friday because of the discharge of the national police chief. now bolsonaro is losing his political base, reaching out to the centrists, which, i don't want to say they have a reputation, but they have a reputation of following their pockets. all of this platform that he ran

on 60 months ago in terms of getting rid of all of the corruption has now turned on its head. the presidential election is scheduled for 2022. alix: how do i need to look at it versus being idiosyncratic -- look at it in terms of being idiosyncratic versus symptomatic? damian: a little bit of both, in my opinion. it has had a really big performance on the negative impact year-to-date, but there's more to follow that remains to be seen. we have seen boeing scrap a merger already. basicallyic minister listed assets being rejected at every turn, so it is really hitting foreign creditors in brazil. alix: it also raises the issue of fiscal sustainability, fiscal

authority, encroaching on central-bank independence. i feel like all of this is making it so much worse, particularly with the currency weakness as well. i feel at the debt sustainability question is still going to be somewhat relevant for developed markets as well, despite the fact that treasury secretary steven mnuchin over the weekend said we've got to throw everything and the kitchen sink right now. michael: this is no time to go small. you need to go big and go fast because you need to put a floor under the economy before it falls too far. then you can worry about debt sustainability, but the question seems to be what is a sustainable level. we are finding out it is a lot higher than a lot of what people thought. bank of japan has been doing this for years now. their debt to gdp ratio is now over 100%, so it doesn't appear that it is necessarily a constraint on people.

that is going to be an interesting debate in the united states. we've already seen the beginnings of it with mitch mcconnell saying that he's worried about debt, and maybe they don't what to do a big stimulus program after this. a lot of people who came out of the 2008-2009 crisis saying that is crazy. you need to do as much as you can to try to keep this economy growing or we will have another growth. of really slow alix: 60 basis points on the 10 year, enough said. if you are still trading, waking up this morning, what are you doing? damian: you have to kind of take stock of some of the companies that are going to be releasing earnings this week. it is going to be really interesting to see how the market digests some of those, whether they see the green shoots in the mall. -- in them all. coming into the crisis, world debt was higher than the 210% we saw and 2007, so we are a lot

more leveraged this timeout. i happen to think there's a lot of bad debt out there. we are already seeing missed payments in china. looking at defaults, looking at all that risk, looking at credit default swaps in india after what happened friday with the freezing every dim sins out of franklin templeton, all of this weighing on sentiment as we engaged this week. alix: absolutely. great conversation, guys. happy monday to you both. thank you very much to damian sassower and michael mckee. any charts we use throughout the two hours, go to gtv on your terminal. browse the features, check it out. gtv . this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: this is "bloomberg

daybreak." the big question now is if they are will settle, and for how much -- if bayer will settle, and for how much. bleeding cash, the warning from the ceo of airbus. telling employees the company needs to quickly cut costs to adapt to a radically shrinking industry. airbus customers are fighting to survive. airbus rival boeing is preparing to slash production and jobs. a historic loss in oil prices claiming another victim. diamond offshore filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy. the company is controlled by lowe's corporation. among the most expensive to produce. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: thanks so much.

here is something else we are all watching today. more loans for small businesses now. democratic presidential candidate joe biden now telling politico that corporate america is "greedy as hell." he wants stricter conditions for business bailouts. meanwhile, bank of america ceo brian moynahan says the small business loan program shouldn't be a race. first-come, first-served aspect for loans need to be removed." these have not flowed to the hardest hit areas of the outbreak. m.i.t. found that only 15% of companies in regions with most business shutdowns got funds from that first tranche of funding. the business is least affected got double that. coming up, we are entering the inflection phase. that is how goldman's jeff currie is describing the oil

market. when will we actually see oil hit barred him -- oil hit bottom? we will break it down. this is bloomberg. ♪ these days staying connected is more important than ever.

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for more information on how you can stay connected, visit xfinity.com/prepare. alix: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak." still looking at s&p features above the highs of the session, building on some

of those gains. the bank of japan said it is going to have unlimited buying of government bonds, also ramping up government purchases of corporate debt. all of that adding some optimism in the market. european equities also on the front foot. some of that is deutsche bank coming out with early numbers. loans, a similar story to banks in the u.s.. in the currency market, seeing a relatively weaker dollar despite the bank of japan comes and throws everything they have the wall. yet, the yen is still higher. you are seeing a relative bid in btp's. it did not get downgraded on friday. ecb meeting now on thursday. oil, a very different story. divergence again between wti and brent. almost three dollars. rent holding firm around $20. unsustainable

levels no matter how you look at it. going me now is jeff currie, goldman sachs head of commodities research. this is big oil. everyone is looking at dividends, how much production they are going to have to pare back. what is the bottom? they've spared back in the u.s. probably somewhere around 2 million barrels a day. i think the key point is over the next three to four weeks, the world is going to hit storage capacity constraints and really test those. once you hit those capacity limits, supply has two equal demand no matter what. that is when you see really large production cuts happen. it is likely coming in the next two to three weeks. cushingis happening at is going to expand to become a global phenomenon. i am not saying you will see the

same price volatility you saw in wti last week and brent, because but wes a broader crude, are not out of the woods yet. this inflection phase we are in will likely last three to four weeks in oil, at which point, when you get to june, this market may likely be in a deficit because you are shutting that supply down. demand is improving. peak lockdown is passed. will likelymarket be reborn again sometime in may, early summer, but it is still too early. alix: before we get there, how much volatility and spikes to the downside do you expect? is going to bet a very violent rebalancing process. you look at it today, heading back down again. every time the system bumps up against, whether it is transportation processing or

storage capacity constraints, these prices need a spike to the downside to take that supply out finallyarket until you hit the bottom and all of that supply has been taken out. outoon as the supply is cut , they pop back up. it can be 30%, 40% up and down. alix: let's go to the summer than, when we have a gradual reopening continue. we have seen the shut-ins already happen. what is your expectation for demand, how quickly it picks up, and the supply and demand picture? jeff: we look at what we are learning from china right now. the one thing that is apparent is that the recovery favors andstries like construction infrastructure heavy industry where distancing measures in the workplace are relatively easy,

and people can't work from home. however, i want to caution that it is a v-shaped recovery, and the way we have modeled it, if we are using china as the prototype, china worked perfect on the way down. we think it will work very well on the way up. in terms of thinking about the demand recovery, we are betting on the similar path we are seeing in china. somewherewe were down around 23 to 24 million barrels a day. in may, we think that will be closer to 18 million barrels a day. it is going to be a gradual process, but i think the key point is demand recovery is v-shaped. the supply recovery will likely be l-shaped. bear in mind that deficit market. alix: interesting. so that is what the outlook for oil is. i am wondering if it is the same as the metals market. oil has been hit a lot harder than copper or iron ore. why? jeff: i think it goes back to

the recovery we see in china. again, it favors heavy manufacturing, construction, and infrastructure, so capex goods like iron ore and copper have been in strong demand. hugeay that on top of restocking demand, as well as pent-up demand. the chinese have moved forward on the building of the 2022 a limbic facilities to get it done this year. -- 2022 olympic facilities to get it done this year. we think there's a lot of downside risk to boost commodities for several reasons. this month and early next month is going to be the week this -- going to be the weakest part of exports. china faces demand that is weak. you have inventories building that you have yet to pricing.

finally, many countries that have had social distancing companies -- social distancing are justin place starting, so that sets up risk. alix: on the one hand, that is a very deflationary environment. outcropping ofis certain issues when it comes to pork, fory, wheat or example. are we looking at a food inflation story and certain pockets around the globe? jeff: i think you have to focus on the pockets. where the pockets are the largest, where you have big bottlenecks, are in the processors. to kennerly, you take -- particularly, you take hogs and beef. you had smithfield much abf announcing -- you had smithfield jdf announcing closures.

there's other bottlenecks further up. you take beef. stakes go to restaurants -- steaks go to restaurants. hamburger goes to grocery stores. you can't switch much of that. low prices and hogs, the hogs are getting too fat so you won't be able to euthanize them. you are creating a problem down the road because, like the oil story, where supply is l-shaped, it is very difficult to restart these fields. similar story with these herds. alix: crazy stories about farmers dumping milk, etc.. part ofgoing to be any a situation where we had a lot of -- any part of an arab

spring situation with unrest because of prices on oil? jeff: when you look at grains, corn, soybean, wheat and so forth, they are a very different story. the demand for the grains are collapsing because of weak ethanol demand through the gasoline supply chain. then you have reduced demand from feed. the plantings are likely to be at the same level because supply is going to be sticky. this means you're going to have later on this out year, which would continue to put downward pressure on the grains. when you think about the infection phase, oil is three to four weeks, metal, four to eight weeks. grains could extend well to the end of this year, so you can have a lot of downside risk. that is going to be a world of hurt for farmers.

this whole situation sets me up what, buyby gold -- gold? what is the price target? jeff: we have $1800 an ounce. it is a very consensus trade. between 2004 and 2011, gold went from $400 to $1900 an ounce. it was bloomberg's top consensus trade year after year. positioning went higher. what was driving it was a decline in real rates over that time period. we have the same dynamic here. in terms of looking at the stimulus coming into the system, we have a quickly building global savings surplus. this will all put downward on -- and support defensive assets. let's go back to that point that the recovery in china has been favoring the industry.

they are not buying gold. so once we see the chinese consumer bounceback, we probably get the emerging market demand for gold as well. the last point, inflation expectations, people are buying it is a tale risk hedge in the current environment. we expect the demand to continue to go up. you look at the position in global portfolios, it is on the low side. alix: jeff, always good to catch up with you. jeff currie of goldman sachs, thanks very much. we want to take a look at how retail investors are actually hurting from the oil slump. the bank of china estimates its clients lost more than $1 billion on oil bets. bloomberg has learned the bank has been compiling reports for 10,000 outlets. over 60,000 customers are said to have invested in a vehicle linked to wti. those contracts hadn't rolled yet, meaning they were selling and then buying june contracts the day before they expired.

something the etf in the u.s. did not do. we want to get updates on headlines outside the business world. viviana hurtado is here with headlines. viviana: may 15 is the date new york could begin reopening. it starts with construction and manufacturing. it would probably begin upstate before moving down to the new york city area. reporting the state 360 seven deaths, the lowest in almost a month. over to the u.k. that is where british prime minister boris johnson is back at work today. the last couple of weeks, johnson recovering from the coronavirus. in his first public statement, he urged people not to give up on social distancing measures. he says lifting the lockdown now would risk a second spike in infections and could do more damage. we end with the mystery over kim jong-un's health. there is a report about a visit by a chinese medical team. another says the north korean

leader's armored train was spotted near a compound. kim hasn't appeared in two weeks, but south korea maintains that rumors he may be dead are untrue. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. alix: thanks so much. coming up, credit card companies on the defense. spending limits for customers. we will talk about it in today's wall street beat. this is bloomberg. ♪

sonali: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: americas."

i'm sonali basak. pandemic isrus isving -- joining me discover ceo roger hochschild. you have been factoring in high levels of unemployment as you have booked maybe $1 billion of provisions for credit losses. what is your expectation over the next couple of months on how consumers across america will be spending, and their ability to pay back loans? roger: clearly, and my 25 years, we have never seen this much distress for the u.s. consumer, if you thing about the roughly 26 million unemployment claims march. it is all going to depend on the

pace of the recovery and how quickly the economy gets going, consumers get back to work and spending again. sonali: the recovery is quite interesting. when i was looking at your earnings results, you had been forecasting some pressure into 2022. can you explain your thinking on the length of that recovery? be a: i think there will hopefully relatively short-term disruption. as we think about the programs we are putting out there for our customers, we are actually modeling a lot of those on the type of relief we provide after a natural disaster. hopefully, people can get bridged back to employment. but i think there is a high risk of a more traditional recession going well beyond travel, retail, restaurant sectors that are hit hardest now, and a relatively longer recovery. sonali: when you are thinking about this longer recovery, some of the expectations with provisions for credit losses have to factor in 9%

unemployment. now that things are looking that they might get -- or they are getting higher than that, what does that mean for credit losses moving forward? roger: we calculate provision at the end of each quarter using the economic assumptions from that time. we will do that again at the end of next quarter based on what we see in the economy. but we've got a lot of capital and a lot of liquidity, so we are ready to support our customers through this. sonali: you mentioned you would be cutting about 400 million dollars worth of expenses, and that is without meaningfully reducing headcount. where do all of those cost cuts come from? roger: the majority are coming from marketing. there are a lot of marketing programs that make less sense in this credit and consumer environment, but we are going after every dollar spent in a different way, looking at technology spend, but working hard to make sure we don't have

any layoffs due to the covid crisis. when you are looking at these expenditures, we all got so used to those rewards that all of these credit card given us across the industry, you mentioned that some of those might be waning before the covid crisis. are rewards going to be a thing of the past? roger: our program is designed to be sustainable. in the third quarter, we are oururing 5% rewards for restaurants. think some of the frequent flyer programs are going to struggle a bit as people not want to travel, so it all depends on the program, but we have no plans to make any changes to our rewards group. sonali: how do you expect to gain share in this type of environment? m&a potentially part of the strategy now that valuations are

lower across the industry? m&a is something we are looking at, particularly in the payments business. clearly, valuations in payments have come down, so that could be a way to grow discover. i think it is important to make sure you are not just defensive, but also looking for opportunities that will come up. sonali: that is incredibly industry -- incredibly interesting. how big of an acquisition would discover be able to do? roger: we have enough capital to support all levels of acquisitions. realistically, we tend to do acquisitions on the smaller side , and a lot of these emerging companies are smaller compared to discover. sonali: would you consider a sale? roger: we feel very good about the mix of assets we have. we've got a balanced business lendingunding and

products, and a unique to election -- unique collection of assets in payments. i am happy with the assets in payments we have now. 450 thousand people skipping payments. what number do you think that looks like in the next couple of months? roger: the good news is the peak enrollment for us was at the end of march, and we have seen customers enrolling in programs come down since then. a lot of these are short-term bridge programs come us what will come down to how quickly can people get back to work. how much the unparalleled government stimulus programs support the average consumer. sonali: we have to leave it there. really appreciate your time. thank you for joining us, roger hochschild of discover. alix: thanks so much. really appreciate that interview. i want to point out that germany

is set to forecast 6.3% coronavirusfrom this year. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ alix: time now for trader's take. joining me is damian sassower, bloomberg intelligence emerging-market credit strategist. what are you looking at today? damian: we are looking at brazil. we talked about political risk on the rise in brazil. the justice minister resigned, the eighth cabinet minister to depart in the last six months since bolsonaro took office. i want to talk about the destruction in market capitalization in brazil. the real is down 30% year to date. in equity index is down

dollar terms. that means the combination of all brazilian bonds, dollar and local currency bonds, now faced $275 billion down from $300 billion. the destruction in market capitalization across the whole of brazilian assets is just massive. brazil nevertheless remains the third issuer of dollar debt, the fifth the biggest issuer of em equities. so it is still a very big constituent within most em indices, but the losses are just building. should point out bolsonaro and his economy minister are speaking right now. bolsonaro saying his economy minister manages economic matters in brazil. economic policy is still the same, etc. i just have to wonder what is going to stem the tide for brazil, regardless of the external factors. what do they have to do to get more money coming into the

country? damian: privatization. the minister you are referring to rejected bolsonaro's plans. he's been highly focused on fiscal austerity with all that has been going on to mystically. he wishes to privatize -- going on domestically. he wishes to privatize government assets. weighs probably going to on adr's at the open. alix: damian sassower of bloomberg intelligence, always great to catch up with you. thank you very much. we head into a market with a risk on feel, with u.s. equity futures up by about 27 points. this is bloomberg. ♪ staying connected your way is easier than ever.

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monday, april 27. i'm alix steel. let's take it right from the top. >> weed implement it additional easing measures today as we see japan's economy remaining in a severe state -- we've implemented additional easing measures today as we see japan's economy remaining in a severe state. psix: bank of japan ram up corporate debt purchases. michael: they dropped their ¥80 trillion limit on government bond buying, yes, but they weren't buying anywhere near the 80 trillion yen already, said it -- the ¥80 trillion already, so doesn't mean that much? allow me to say that if you love italy, you will keep the distance. alix: italian prime minister

giuseppe conte says his government will present a plan for reopening certain sectors of the economy, while warning that a second wave would present irreversible damage for the economy. >> they are signaling tentative moves to open up their economy. italy starts to ease restrictions next week. it is going to be a phase one that starts with construction and manufacturing. alix: italy reported the fewest deaths over 24 hours and weeks. >> you cannot really justify that multiple at this time in many of the companies. alix: carl icahn is hoarding cash, shorting commercial real estate, and preparing for the virus to wreak more havoc. this comes as deutsche bank announces a surprise profit and warns on loan defaults. >> deutsche bank coming out with a surprise earnings preview overnight which shows it is

going to beat expectations. u.s. tech giants set to report this week. mysteries swirl around the health of north korean leader kim jong-un, including unconfirmed reports of a visit by a chinese medical team and the movement of his armored train. in the markets, we are still looking at relative optimism s&p, trying to extend gains. by european gains, like deutsche bank, as we mentioned. brent now starting to roll over with wti is more pressure comes into the crude market. big week for earnings. general motors suspending its quarterly cash dividend and share buyback program.

they are taking measures to preserve near-term available all cash. they took other measures to preserve some of that cash as well, and they maintain commitment to their capital framework. they extended their $3.6 billion under a three year revolving credit packed. similar to other countries trying to shore up their balance sheet, trying to survive the crisis here. they are suspending their buyback, as well as dividends. the stock is now down about 0.7% in premarket. let's get to what we are learning throughout earnings season. we are about 1/3 of the way through earnings. of the 120 that have reported, earnings are down 17%. 64% have seen revenues rise, but it is the outlook that really matters. joining me now for more is lead drug and, estimize -- is lead n,ug and -- is leigh droge

estimize founder and ceo. a bit they are still catatonic about moving their numbers. we see the calendar 2020 numbers 135.t the street is about 139. we expect those numbers to get down at least to 125, if not lower. we are trading at 19.5 oo -- we arent trading at 19.5 times earnings now. basically, we see this whole structure as is it temporary, or

is the destruction permanent. in some places, it is going to be very temporary. we see it in enterprise veryology, where some large enterprise technologies are given clients free service in hopes of retaining them, so we see players like microsoft are going to see plenty of liquidity, and they are going to even be able to increase their market share here. other players, just going back to enterprise tech, smaller players may not be able to do that, and we may see some more permanent destruction. in terms of other sectors, the permanent destruction in commercial real estate is going to be significant. we still haven't seen enough downward rescissions -- downward revisions to the real estate numbers. apple one also reports. really bad reports over the next six to nine months and the banking sector. we think the revisions really have to considerably go lower

there as well. think that the upside is actually priced into health care here. we are going to get a really wide dispersion in earnings revisions here, and everybody always talks about, well, it is a market of stock instead of a stock market. that really is true right now, so there are obviously a lot of opportunities. what the market is saying here, while we think it is definitely overpriced the multiples will come down as the second-order effects of the virus take effect , we saw this morning apple come out and say they are moving production back and released the iphone -- and release for the iphone, but the market overall is saying it is going to be really hard to push the overall market multiple down too far. thus, you are going to see the sectors that do perform well actually be able to do that

instead of being pulled down as they normally would in a bear market. , normallyt one we see we have been on this experiences over things trend, and we think that is going to completely reverse. towards that goes safely upgrading your home is really going to do well in the next 12 months. bringspgrading your home me to tech as well. we have a ton of tech names reporting this week. it has been that trade, the momentum tech trades, that have led rallies. how do you look at that when we go into earnings? leigh: obviously, the multiples there have increased even further. a couple of things we like and a couple of things that scare us. basically itst advertising spend by half for this year.

are seeingwhat they is that advertising spend is not going to pick up a sickly for the rest of this year. the upside scenario would be that we normalize kind of in q4, but q2 and q3 are completely out the door at this point. all of the user numbers are going to be really good for the internet names. the stock report was excellent. we believe that is going to read through to facebook, instagram, and pinterest. the question is how long is the market going to say you don't have to actually convert any of that into numbers versus just putting nonusers and engagement? that is only going to last so long. we think it can last until q4, when things kind of normalize in the economy. personally, i would not bet on that. i think we do trough out lower

than this on multiples, but that would be the upside scenario if we don't have a distractive q3 in terms of the overall economy. right. that is what we just what we are contending with. leigh a lot, drogen of estimize. vera, bulltick head of research and strategy, will be joining us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪

alix: wti is now increasing its losses, down .1%.

that is june futures contracts, trading at $13 a barrel. all of the contracts are rolling over as well. it is not just june. it is july and august as well. you still have equity markets able to hold onto their rally. s&p futures or syllabi 27 points. we have a huge earnings season underway when it comes to the u.s., particularly big tech and focus. a lot of central banks coming in as well. have ecb and fed on deck. the question really becomes how much can the equity market diverge from the actual underlying economics of what we are seeing due to the virus. if oil is actually telling us about the underlying micro-conditions, can equity ?arkets still be this high individual stocks moving in premarket here, to the downside,

leveredal, one of the stocks reacting to the oil price. facebook is on the upside. boeing even on the upside, despite the fact that the airbus ceo is warning workers it is , but stepping away from a deal that is not good news for brazil, but probably good news for boeing. all of that wrapped into the market. in the bond market, it is fairly quiet. looking at a little bit of selling on the backend in the u.s. yields up by about two basis points. solid buying happening in europe and the peripheral italian bond yields, down 10 basis points much more coming up. we will take a quick break, and delve more into the market action. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> you have to be extremely careful in this market. i think there will be some good opportunities, but i can't talk about it short-term. short-term, i think you might have some big downdrafts. alix: that was activist investor carl icahn talking to us on friday about his investments in the current market environment. here with her take is kathryn rooney vera, bulltick head of research and strategy. you tend to be more constructive and take on more risk in markets where people don't like it. what are you doing now? kathryn: now i tend to agree with mr. icahn. i think there are going to be downdrafts, precipitate by horrific data from the economic side, which the market with its recent bottom for current

.ricing is not discounting the second round of virus could also precipitate that downdraft. thirdly, terrible earnings. i think the market is ahead of itself based on bailouts, stimulus, a crowding out of the hazard,sector, moral and i don't buy into it. alix: i guess the question is why. if you are looking at a v-shaped recovery when the equity market, maybe they are pricing in that kind of recovery on the economic front. what is the counter to that? 2021 is going to be a tremendous year in terms of economic bounce, but this is going to be the worst we have seen since the great depression. the longer the economy remains closed, of course, the worst that will be. we could be facing a depression rather than what the market has priced in.

it did price and in that two week slide a traditional recession. effect is the economy is closed. the economy is still closed, and ofonsumer-based economy, 3/4 the economy based on services, services are closed, but consumption is closed for business. there's really no clear path to the resumption of normal habits of consumption. the president and the administration said they were going to phase in a reopening, but you and i know that, and we have seen it in the case of germany, that once they allow restaurants to reopen, may be some people will russian, but others will take a step back and say, you know what? i am going to wait until there is some medical remedy or vaccine so that i can assure i go out, iwhen can safely return to my 70 or 80-year-old parents. alix: it is a fair point.

i wonder what has to be on the shopping list once you get some kind of clarity. tech has led on the upside. tech hasn't sold much in the downside. so some of that has already been baked in. what do you know your shopping list needs to look like? kathryn: i think it needs to look at the broad s&p. the market has priced in a v-shaped recovery, and i think the recovery is going to be worse than what the market is currently expecting. what you have to be focused on is tech. once you get that downdraft, you do want to buy tech. you want to buy staples. this is a recession the likes of which we haven't seen since the great depression. so i think you want to be into those defensive names. tech is certainly what is going future productivity,

and i thick that is where we need to be. but the fact is one can't discount another correction in the offing. i think that is going to be coming over the next couple of months. for those clients i talk to that are listening right now, this fomo i am hearing, i would caution those investors not to take may be a premature rally that doesn't have legs. i think you are going to see opportunities in the market. you are going to want to take qhose opportunities because 2 drops 40%. even because of basic facts, you're going to get phenomenal jumps in 2021 in terms of economic growth. alix: right. it is going to be super distorted, though, to that point. so what do you want to be would doing about emerging markets? we have been talking about brazil all morning. what do you do there?

kathryn: i think if you are an investor that has a multiyear horizon, you want to be looking at brazil in terms of buying in even the msci emerging markets index come over the next couple of months. if you see that risk off movement, you will see another leg down in the real, which is massively undervalued right now. i think brazil is well-positioned to outperform generally in emerging markets once we get that stability and bounce that comes not just on base effect, but fundamentally from a resumption in the main drivers in both the u.s. and global economy, which is effectively the consumer. alix: so what is the pain trade now to equities? tohryn: i think you're going be seeing some nastiness with

regard to correction, and terms of the broader markets. what i am telling my clients is everyone is talking about cash, but keep your powder dry because there is going to be opportunity to enter the broader markets. i like financials. i like defensive and i like tech. those are the sectors i most like. don't be scared that you are missing out on the last opportunity, and maintain that yash position to be able to bu into the market once you do see that. alix: really appreciate that warning against fomo. thank you, kathryn rooney vera of bulltick. great to catch up with the. now it is time for the bloomberg business flash. apple reportedly delaying this its's production of

flagship iphone, according to dow jones. production will now be pushed back by about a month. the coronavirus outbreak is hurting global demand and inrupted manufacturing china, where most of the iphone is made. according to the standard aberdeen -- the standard life aberdeen chairman, asia is coming out of the crisis sooner because it entered earlier. >> this is across all businesses presently in our sector. people will look at the benefits of diversification, having a broad product range, having greater geographic distribution, having greater scale in a lower revenue model. alix: flint says health care in and the structure -- and infrastructure will be among the

industries benefiting. and deutsche bank being first quarter expectations. at the same time, warns that provisions may have hit the highest in six years. they caution about the unpredictable impact of the coronavirus outbreak. on wednesday, so results will come out. that is your bloomberg business flash. for more on deutsche bank and european bank earnings, i want to bring in endless comfort, bloomberg european finance reporter -- bring in nicholas comfort, bloomberg european finance reporter. what stood out? what were red flags? reporter: there were surprisingly good numbers for a bank in deutsche bank's fission, a massive overhaul -- in deutsche bank's position, a massive overhaul in the midst of a massive crisis. it is pretty decent. that is why you have seen a

positive reaction in the shares today. i would say if you are really looking for something to be a little worried about, you could see that the capital front isn't so great on a safety bid. that is probably the fact that people are drawing down loans. be pretty ugly normally, but the fact that they've had this massive revenue beat has given them a lower bar to cross in terms of capital. that has given them the comfort that there is this buffet there -- this buffer there between where they stand and what the minimum requirement is. alix: nicholas comfort of bloomberg news, thank you very much. coming up, we are also looking ahead to central-bank decisions ,his week, with michael kushma morgan stanley investment

management cio of global fixed income, after morgan stanley will take unlimited bond buying. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: welcomed "bloomberg daybreak." i am alix steel. in the equity market, futures continue to grind their way higher.

a 50 day moving average. bankean banks, deutsche coming in with preliminary numbers, better than expected. switch up the board. it is not like last monday, but it does not feel very good. the oil price down four dollars. it its decline in the last hour. brent also rolling over as well. within the bond market, still getting a bid in the peripherals in europe but we are starting to see selling pickup. yields up over two basis points into the fed meeting. are broadly weaker dollar story. dollar, a weaker bond market, and stronger stocks. in central banks, we just got the boj committing to the unlimited buying of government bonds. i want to bring in michael kuchma of morgan stanley.

, what we really care about when the fed comes out on wednesday? michael: the rhetoric is what we will care about and what they say about the economic outlook. in january they had an economic forecast and then said they would not be putting one out for a while because there's no point because nobody knows how things will actually go. what kind of information to they give us about where the economy is going, where they think the economy is going? we will not get any policy moves because they've done so much already. everybody has been out front on the central bank side. it is the fiscal side we are watching now. expect interest in what jay powell has to say. what arehael kushma, you watching for? michael k.: i think that is a good summary so far. to providee fed

increased confidence about forward guidance and their commitment to keeping rates as low as necessary indefinitely. years,d be one year, two they will do whatever it takes to accomplish their objective and i agree there is no point in coming up with economic forecasts because they are pretty much a wildcard. street consensus is these are all over the map in terms of where things will be in q2 and q3 and the range of outcomes is wide. the fed will stay away from him yet with a specific economic forecast, but a commitment to providing whatever is necessary to achieve better growth down the road and stability in financial markets. will hearoubt we something similar from christine lagarde. michael kushma, the question becomes how much more credit risk to central banks need to take on? europe has been more aggressive than the u.s..

the ecb has been buying corporate bonds for a long time as part of their original qe program in 2012 to 2013. that will continue. what we could see from them are more tweaks to their program. they have sufficient dollar amount for their various pet programs. that will run out by the end of the year. there are other talks about fiscal agents in europe, the eu providing more support for european economies. that will interact with monetary policy. christine lagarde will talk about the need for the eu to step up with more fiscal policy and the ecb is ready to support that commitment. it is about supporting the commitment to increased economic -- supporting economies down the road, and they will increase programs as necessary to achieve those objectives. alongside that, it was good news on friday. peripherals doing better.

italy and greece not downgraded by the rating agencies. alix: definitely. michael mckee, i wonder if at some point the ecb will have to buy downgraded corporate debts or fallen angels, like the fed is willing to do? michael m.: they will say they are willing, the question is do they need to and how much are they willing to do since those countries were not downgraded -- greece is already in junk, but not downgraded further. they do not have to do anything specifically different at the moment. the question is what will they do once we know what the eu is going to do. if the eu will provide enough money quickly enough on the fiscal side that they get the ecb off the hook. if they do not, you will see some pressure on them to buy more bonds. if the eu puts together a lending program similar to the esm in italy, that could open the way for outright monetary

transactions, more bond buying of italian debt. the question is -- that is a question down the road. alix: fairpoint. the other monkeywrench in this whole thing is inflation expectations rolling over completely and is the two year breakeven now a negative territory as oil has been continually hammer? look at the oil impact. how do you look at it when it comes to central banks? deflationary impact, does also give them more cover? how do you see it? michael k.: it is complicated in the short run. normally you think about commodity price shocks like oil hitting the market, it is positive and negative. it is negative for the energy production distribution network, but it is a positive for users who have lower input numbers into their usage for the household sectors.

right now large part of the global economy is using oil. falling oil price does not seep through to greater household confidence in household spending because they cannot spend money on anything. it is complicated in the short run because demand is not responding to lower prices because someone is spending money on oil. it has a near-term negative impact, but i'm impressed by the equity market and the credit market not being too negatively impacted by the collapse in oil. it has been confined directly to the energy markets. i think the credit markets understand oil has to sort itself out. supply has to adjust to the new lower levels of demand, and pushing prices lower faster accelerates that process of reducing output in many ways. it does hurt their ability to hit inflation target, but i do

not think they're worried about inflation, they're worried about the real economy, and they will continue to act aggressively. this provides some cover in the sense we are not worried about inflation rising any times. we can provide unlimited monetary support for the economy while this plays out. down the road, meeting years into the future, all of the fiscal stimulus may be somewhat inflationary, but that is a long and the future problem. michael m.: you noted the bank of japan today took reference to its inflation target out of it statement because it does not matter to them. that has been there focus for decades to try to get inflation up. it is all about putting a floor under things and it will be a while before we get any kind of inflation, but central banks might welcome that. if you want to get out of debt, one way to do it is inflate your way out of it. central banks know how to deal

with inflation. they can raise interest rates if they need to. it is deflation they're worried about. they will let things run. alix: also to that point, it provides cover for any kind of monetization. michael kushma, to pivot off the boj, unlimited government bond buying at a time when the government will have to issue debt to pay for stimulus, how is what we are seeing in central banks and governments not outright monetary transactions, mmt? controversya lot of over what exactly mmt means. consensus,ashioned monetary financing of fiscal expansion is a good thing. it keeps interest rates lower because rates do not rise while you're having this fiscal expansion. the central bank's goals in general are that as governments

are issuing incredible quantities of government bonds to support and finance budget deficits going into 10% to 12% of gdp depending on how things unfold in the next couple of quarters, they do not want to see that expansion because long-term interest rates to rise or any interest rates to rise, basically providing short-term financing of the federal government to make sure rates do not rise or do anything to unnerve financial markets or unnerve economic agents in economies such as they are not optimistic about the future. it is a turbocharged policy, this fiscal and monetary policy supporting each other. this is unprecedented. we have never seen this on such a global scale with countries who have this flexibility to do it. some countries may not have this flexibility but the u.s. does, europe does, japan does, china does. alix: very thin tight rope. michael kushma, thank you so

much for joining me. michael mckee, always great to have you on set. we want to give an update on what is making headlines outside of the business world. here is viviana hurtado with your first word news. viviana: may 15 is the date new york state begin to reopen. planw cuomo lang out a that starts with construction and manufacturing. he says it will probably begin upstate before moving south to the new york city area. yesterday the state reporting 367 deaths, the lowest in almost a month. prime minister boris johnson is back at work today. weeks, mr.uple of johnson is recovering from the coronavirus. in his first public statement he urged people not to give up on social distancing measures. he says lifting the lockdown would lift a second spike of infections and that could do more damage. new york oil falling below $15 a barrel after a four year gain.

saudi arabia cutting back on output. investors are focused on the massive oil glut. there is concern it could lead to a rerun of last week's crash. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. hurtado.ana this is bloomberg. alix? alix: thanks so much. it is a big week for some tech giants. you have google, apple, amazon, facebook, all reporting. we will speak with someone who owns those names, dan morgan will be joining us. any charts we use throughout the program, go right to gtv . this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: you are watching bloomberg daybreak. i am viviana hurtado with your bloomberg business flash. general motors is taking steps to preserve cash at a time few people are buying cars. the automakers is spending its quarterly dividend payment and put it share buyback program on hold. major retailers are calling on u.s. states to adopt uniform reopening plans. trade groups representing walmart and best buy are sending a plan to governors instead of state-by-state. it proposers allowing warehouses and distribution centers to open all at once. ite they open their doors, outlines how retailers can maintain public safety. could could have -- bayer have big liquidity problems. the company facing 62,000 lawsuits that claim round up

weed causes cancer. the big question is if bayer will settle and how much. there is speculation a settlement could cost around $10 billion. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: thanks so much. time for bottom line. we take a look at companies worth watching. it will be all about tech because google, microsoft, amazon, facebook all reporting earnings. joining us to break it down is dan morgan. you own all of those names in your portfolio. tech has outperformed on the upside and outperformed on the downside. what is the risk as we head into earnings season? dan: good morning. look at the overflow we have seen so far in the tech sector. we had a great number out of netflix last week, also intel came in with great numbers. we had snap in with good numbers. we were concerned about their

advertising business. as we go into the faang stocks, we start to get the bigger numbers this week, facebook and so forth and all of these names we follow closely, microsoft, i would not be surprised if we do better than what people are expecting. we have gotten so much negativity about this upcoming cycle. no one wants to put guidance out , but if we look at what we've got on the table so far, the numbers look like they're going a lot better than expected. that is one of the reasons that tech has held up a little bit better than some of these other sectors that have been hurt so bad. alix: break it down. which company -- google, microsoft, facebook, apple, amazon. what has the most upside potential in earnings we are not expecting? dan: that we are not expecting or will have the biggest upside? i am just teasing you.

everybodythe stock expects to have an incredible quarter. you've talked about the success they have had on all angles in regards to reacting to the covid-19 situation. they are a stock i think will perform extremely well. in terms of stocks that might be surprising, it might be facebook or google. these are companies that everybody thinks the advertising revenue will drop off on the quarter, we have seen estimates come down, they are looking for negative growth quarter to quarter, that being fourth quarter to first quarter in terms of advertising revenue. numbers,king at snap's they are up 44% year-over-year. i would not be surprised if the advertising revenue does not drop as much as everybody is anticipating, therefore getting better quarters out of two

companies everyone has been negative on. alix: interesting perspective for that. i want to check on amazon before we move on. with amazon, how do you look at the shareholder versus stakeholder debate? fresh much business as this has been for amazon, there has been just as much negative publicity in terms of how they are treating their workers and safety protocols. as an investor, how much you care about that? dan: it is something to be concerned about. we have seen a lot of negative news, people working in warehouses and distribution centers concerned about their own health. they should execute well on this quarter and deliver. wall street will take into account those issues, but obviously they are always focused on how are they performing in terms of aws, how are they performing in terms of managing cost? one issue into this quarter is

what you've just said. they have hired over 100,000 people over the last six weeks to help them. what are the costs associated with hiring those people and getting them on board, training them. then you have everyone moving towards amazon and a lot of them are prime members. prime gets free shipping. how does that free shipping eat into that one-time revenue gain? there are issues to be concerned about surrounding amazon like you just mentioned in terms of dealing with the workers and costs associated with shipping and bringing on all of those people. alix: fair. you brought up aws, the cloud platform. what you expect in terms of how good microsoft cloud business can be as we all start to work from home? dan: that is one of the areas microsoft should shine is in the cloud space, that cruise 64%

last quarter. we expect that to continue to grow 60% in the quarter. intelligent cloud was up 22%. we should see a good rollover in those groups. also teams, which you talked about before, the app people use, and email sharing service, and to some degree the zoom technology. i think microsoft is poised well coming into everything that has been going on. when appley warned warned about coming off the fourth quarter. they were another company that warned. a lot of things have swung into their favor since them in terms of what has laid out with the covid-19 situation. we would expect good numbers coming out of microsoft and good numbers out of their cloud unit. alix: just quickly to rounded out, with apple, it is obviously still a hardware story no matter how much they wanted to be a

services story. we got indications potentially they will push back their production. what is the upside/downside potential for apple? dan: the upside is the surprised things are better than people thought. we know they came out with their new low cost phone a couple of weeks ago. it will be under $400. consensus is looking for 20 to 25 million of the lower-priced phones to ship. it fits into the climate. we are all worried about the virus, a lot of people have been let go and do not have as much money to upgrade to the iphone 11. it is more of a surprise factor with apple where they do not do quite as badly as what everyone has anticipated. also if they gave us any indication of are they going to roll out with his new 5g phone for the holiday order? that will be another issue on the table. alix: appreciate catching up with you. dan morgan.

,oming up on the program bitcoin appears to be in a consolidating bull market good is it becoming the next digital gold? we will talk about it in today's technically speaking. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: time for technically speaking. joining ms. mike mcglone, bloomberg intelligence strategist. it is not -- joining me is mike mcglone. it is not gold, it is bitcoin. mike: bitcoin is a consolidating bull market great it had one little dip. isook at it as a market that waiting for a good reason to go higher and continue what it has been doing since its history, that is appreciating, but it a much slower pace. it is becoming a digital version of gold. alix: what is the relationship between the bitcoin, volatility,

and the s&p? mike: that is part of the key thing happening lately. bitcoin volatility a versus the lowest ever. bitcoin isatility on now only two .5 times the s&p 500. it peaked around 13 when bitcoin peaked in 2017. the ratio of bitcoin over the s&p 500 is about the same, about 2.5 times. bitcoin is more likely to continue to have an upper hand and appreciate versus the equity market. alix: good to get that perspective. mike mcglone of bloomberg intelligence, thank you very much. that wraps it up for me. withg up on "the open" jonathan ferro, tony dwyer will be joining him. i want to point out what is happening with oil. really rolling over. wti on the june futures off 24%.

$20, off 7%.ow more downside percolating. will it be a negative day-to-day? probably not. with earnings out tomorrow. happy monday. this is bloomberg. ♪ save hundreds on your wireless bill

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morning, good morning. the countdown to the open starts right now. 30 minutes away from the opening bell. here is your price action. after a week of losses on the s&p 500, we bounceback 26 points higher. .9%. reflecting the improving risk appetite. in the fx market, a weaker dollar. in the bond market, higher treasury yields. not reflecting that improving risk appetite, crude. wti to $12.70. more on that later as we start the long journey towards reopening these economies across europe and in the united states. risk appetite improves. dependencyue, market dependent on the federal reserve and the ecb, both of which deliver decisions this week.