>> good morning from london. i'm nejra cehic with manus cranny live from dubai. these are today's top story. the white house outlines plans to expand coronavirus testing as new york's governor's as part of the state could reopen in may. a group says the vaccine might be available this year. food slides after the biggest oils etf cells all short-term contracts as u.s. future start deliveries to the nation

stockpiles. chargecords its biggest for bad debt. the ceo joins us on the show and we will hear from ups's ceo as its loan-loss provisions rocket. manus: we will talk to sergio what isshortly, but interesting, loan-loss provisions are not necessarily the biggest single item in his numbers. he spoke to us a couple of weeks ago. hise are the numbers for bank, $1.6 billion in terms of profitability. that is the best quarter in nearly two years. better than what they had preannounced, but when it comes to loan losses, he talked about $268 million. he says pressure on income streams, but he says they have

exposure of high quality versus hsbc, $3 billion in terms of loan provisions they are making, $25 billion for the u.s. banks all the way around and santander, a provision of 3.9 billion euros. provisions are not the story within sergio ermotti's graph. it is about what is happening with elevated client activity. they are seeing lowered activity and reduced income. nejra: when it comes to hsbc, credit losses are definitely the biggest thing to focus on. hsbc, taking its biggest charge for bad debt in almost nine years. credit losses, swelled to $3 billion in the first quarter, almost double estimates and it could rise to as high as $11 billion this year. missedd pretax profit consensus estimates, another thing very much in focus.

in terms of credit losses, the cfo said this morning they were broad-based but what we know is they include a significant charge in singapore where the bank is on the hook for a $600 million loan for a failed oil trade. hsbc didn't name the creditor in the earnings release. there were big questions about the transformation plan we heard about in february. what we learned was that was going to be 35,000 job cuts. we know that has been put on pause, and there are questions about the cost reduction plan to the tune of $4.5 billion. what we learned this morning is hsbc is to temporarily delay parts of the transformation. it continues to assess the impact of the covid-19 crisis, so that is something we will have to look at when we speak to the cfo shortly. manus: indeed, and the guidance they gave for credit losses is

anywhere -- the range was from 3 billion to $10 billion. their guidance is from seven to 7.8 through 211. we will see what we can get when he joins us. for the first, quarter, coronavirus nonperforming loans, 3.9 billion euros in total. it is important we qualify what this is made up of. first quarter coronavirus interventions, 1.6 billion. euros.ome, 331 million santander to review its targets once the crisis impact becomes -- she hasding to given us their guidance. we will speak to the santander after 7:30 a.m. u.k. time.

again, it is about this ramping up in terms of provisions all the way around the system and the impact and how that will scale up. you've got a little bit of novartis. ,ejra: on the banks, liquidity capital positions are a big thing. that is something we will discuss with hsbc. we know the dividend was already halted. cap might be something to address in our conversation, but on novartis, first quarter core $1.56, up 34% in constant fx. itsrtis is keeping full-year view, so the 2020 guidance for continued operations is confirmed. interesting in terms of the guidance. keeping that strong operational performance in the first quarter as it confirms the full-year. those are the main lines from novartis so a lot of breaking news coming through and we got to get to the markets because there have been big moves.

yesterday, the s&p 500 hit its highest's in march. a little bit of red on the screen in asia and the u.s. futures with a negative bias. european futures edging for positive territory and the 10-year treasury yield, pretty steady at the moment around 65 handle. dollar, a touch of strength. the kiwi underperforming out of g10 and most currencies range bound. from westpac on that, but oil is what we want to focus on because we saw the uti music order of its how you yesterday, down more than 30% today. a little more steady in brent, but what seemed to exacerbate the moves yesterday in wti was the biggest oil etf, uso ro iling markets as it started selling all of its holdings in the most active wti futures contracts. that triggered the spread between the june and july

contracts. global confirmed cases of coronavirus have passed 3 million with over 210,000 deaths. approaches one million infections, president trump unveiled a new testing strategy that he says would allow the economy to reopen the different states are making their own decisions on when to lift their lockdowns as the coalition for epidemic preparedness innovation says a vaccine for vulnerable groups could be available even faster than the 12 to 18 months previously suggested. annmarie hordern joins us now from new york to wrap this together for us. what have we learned in terms of testing, restarting the u.s. economy, and the potential for a vaccine? testing, testing, testing. that is what you continually hear from governors, executives, health officials on what is needed to get the economy back open and making people comfortable going in to public places and back to work. president trump had promised

widespread testing but the administration has another plan and what this would do is testing in 50 states and enough to test about 2% of the population in those states, and what they plan to go for and intend to target the elderly and minority populations, which have seen higher mortality rates from the virus. alongside this, cvs and walgreens planning to open up more testing locations. that could expand capacity greatly, as trump has come under criticism in the united states because the u.s. has become the largest in the world in terms of the outbreak. of course, many say this is because we were slow to develop widespread testing. experts say in order to open, there needs to be at least 500,000 tests a day in the united states. testing will also guide what governors do.

we heard from the new york state governor, the new jersey governor. he said testing is key. spoke about andrew cuomo lifting lockdowns in part of the state. he said yesterday the may 15 stay-at-home order is going to extend in many parts of the state, likely all that indefinitely including manhattan, and new york city, the central hub of the tri-state area, that means new jersey governor phil murphy is talking about a stay-at-home order in effect pretty much entirely until further notice. it is still going to be a very slow start. testing is key and you mentioned the vaccine. after testing, the vaccine is the next big race and this one big group at the heart of the global effort is saying we could potentially see a vaccine in 2020, much faster than many expected because corporations are working together. there is a higher use of the testing capabilities and we could potentially see in 2020.

this wouldn't be deployed widespread, but likely emergency situations so a glimmer of hope at the end potentially. manus: thank you very much. annmarie hordern, tracking the coronavirus impact around the world and in the u.s. , much oft word news, the u.s. is lifting restrictions say there studying plans today. germany, austria, and the netherlands relaxing containment rules. policymakers are wary of spurring a second wave of infections. the coronavirus is here to stay and likely to be seasonal. that is the conclusion of china's top scientist at a briefing in beijing. they say it will likely come ,ack in waves and in the summer will necessarily lead to fewer cases but the new virus is different than sars.

high number of a symptom cases makes it hard to fully contain. the germany, the government has asked sap and deutsche telekom to develop a contact tracing app. the idea is to collect anonymous data about nearby phones using bluetooth. once an infection is confirmed, people using the app can learn if they've been in proximity with the confirmed infection without learning the person's identity. around 3200llowing at its u.k. wing in brighton. agreed withit has the union to take advantage of the government's payroll supports. the move will impact the majority of production at the site. belough periods will staggered and last three weeks each. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.

nejra: coming up, we will speak with the hsbc cfo as the credit losses well to $3 billion with the virus roiling economies in its main market. this is bloomberg. ♪

nejra: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i'm nejra cehic in london. risk off in today's session after u.s. equities hit a march high yesterday. with a negative bias. in europe, the 10-year treasury yield doesn't move too much.

dollar-yen, unchanged. g10 currencies range bound apart from the kiwi, but oil taking a battering again. wti plunged yesterday, continues to slide today. rent is more steady but you are seeing the spread between june and july and it comes back to suo. -- uso. it does, indeed. when it comes to the storage capacity, jeff curry says it could be three to four weeks. where do you want to go? do you believe the rally in the s&p 500? forward earnings are high valuations? -- or high valuations? nejra: hsbc has set aside the most capital in almost nine years to bad debt as the coronavirus outbreak royalty economies of its main markets. expected credit losses swelled to $3 billion in the first quarter, almost double estimates.

europe's biggest lender has already stopped its dividend falling regular -- following regulatory pressure for companies to preserve capital and pause efforts to cut 30,000 jobs. joining us is ewen stevenson, cfo of hsbc. we've got lots to discuss, but let's start with the credit losses. 2020 credit losses could swell to seven to $11 billion. how robust is the guidance at the moment given the uncertainty around how bad the impact of coronavirus could be? a resolve the us we a great degree of uncertainty around the range. we saw $3 billion of expected credit losses in the first fourfold on last year. the seven to 11 range is an

estimate on what we can see. durationndent on the and economic impact of the coronavirus during the remainder of the year. manus: good morning to youmanus: . scenariothe worst case , the tencent elevens, what 11's, what's and needs to go right? -- we are we need already seeing it in china and hong kong, the start of a the coronavirus in terms of the harsher economic impacts. europe and the u.s. is going to go through a very difficult second quarter and i think it will depend very much on the degree of recovery we see into the fourth quarter later this year. nejra: we also understand the

credit losses included a significant charge in singapore, for hsbc has been on the hook for a $600 million loan to a failed oil trader. can you give us an update on that in terms of recovery or how much more that could impact loan credit losses? very we have taken a q1stantial charge into the results, provisions as a result of single name exposure we have in the sector in singapore. we are not planning to go into details on individual customers and provisions we have taken. ewen, where institutional shareholders more peeved about? the dividend or that your cost-cutting program is delayed?

we regret the fact that we and wecut q4 dividend also suspended dividends for the first three quarters of this year. we want to get back to a position of being able to pay dividends as soon as we can, but any decision on dividends until we get greater clarity on the impact of covid-19. on the cost-cutting -- manus: are dividends off the agenda for 2020, before we take a quick commercial break? ewen: i think we are going to take that decision on the back end of the year or end of year results early next year. manus: ok. don't hang up the phone. this is one of those biggest technical moments in our tv life. hold onto the phone. we will be back with you in literally two and half minutes.

the cfo of hsbc, patiently waiting on the phone to continue the conversation with bloomberg. ♪

manus: hsbc has delivered their numbers and cfo is with us, ewen stevenson of hsbc. you talk about a recovery in hong kong and china. 70%, 80% recovery in the economy, what can you tell me? is lending going up? how would you qualify the recovery in china and hong kong? you: it is early days, but can see people getting back to improving statistics in mainland china and to a lesser extent, hong kong. progressively coming out of

lockdown and the real call will be the demand side, particularly what is likely to be a significant recessionary event in europe and the u.s. in the second quarter. hong kong and mainland china are seeing early signs of her every -- a recovery. nejra: the big transformation plan you announced in february, your ceo has said this morning the restructuring will resume once the virus passes, but can you give us any guidance on how you are expecting savings to come from other measures apart from job cuts which have been put on pause? ewen: we are doing all of the things we should do to control our cost base and we now expect the beginning of the year costs to be flat this year, narrowly expected down, costs year on

year 30% in quarter. cost line items like travel and entertainment, we've drastically cut back on external recruiting given with paused during that -- the paused redundancy program. on the restructuring plan, we are doing network but felt it was appropriate in this environment to put a pause. nejra: does that mean you'll keep a larger presence? manus: let me finish, which is the $4.5 billion cost cuts the market wanted to see from you to deliver, are you going to be doing -- able to deliver a billion dollars this year?

more quickly perhaps than we anticipate even in these tough times? ewen: i think on the cost side, will all be able to make progress than we previously envisaged full-year on the revenue side. it is more difficult to predict the path of revenues in this environment. to be downevenues this year and haven't committed as a result of that. what we've committee to today is to see our cost base lower than last year. nejra: great have you with us today. ewen stevenson, cfo of hsbc. we appreciate your time, as always. a check on the risk radar, we are seeing stability in u.s. futures, down .1% on s&p. we hit a march 10 high on the s&p yesterday. european futures are positive, the 10 year yield doesn't move a whole lot. we are on a 65 handle on that 10 year yield. quite a narrow range in

terms of currencies against the dollar. dollar strength across the board, but the kiwi is underperforming and expectations for rate cuts. it is oil where we have seen big moves. a loss of a quarter of the value of the dbt i june contracts less -- wti june contracts yesterday it is about uso wreaking havoc. manus: they swapped from june all the way out, from june into july of this year, causing all away to 2021. at physical storage, goldman sachs saying you will run out in three weeks but in south korea, they run out of onshore storage. in again,to get $.50 because everyone loves when i talk about something i know nothing about, but from an optionality point of view, $.50. options traded on wti

for the first time on monday. that to me is very significant. doesn't matter the size of the trade. it talks about to shift in the psyche of what is possible. nejra: yeah, and you've got this june contract expiring may 19. bloomberg intelligence talks about a lot more volatility until then and you start to question if every month we start to see this, although we didn't have a negative monday as last week. people watching the screens and say not another monday like that in wti. coming up on the show, you don't want to miss our interview with bp ceo better loonie at 7:00 london time. ait plans, europeans chart plan to easing lockdowns as new virus infections drop. we will get the latest on that next. lots coming up on the markets. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: good morning from bloomberg's headquarters in dubai. i'm manus cranny. your top stories today. the white house outlines plans to expand coronavirus testing as new york's governor says part of the state could reopen in may. a key group says a vaccine might be available this year. crude slides after the biggest

oil etf sells all short-term contracts as u.s. future start deliveries to the nation stockpiles. we hear from the bp ceo this morning. hsbc records its biggest charge for bad debt in almost nine years amid the global pandemic. coming up, we hear from the ubs ceo on his numbers and why he's got good quality credit. sergio ermotti joins the team just after 6:40 this morning. we've just spoken to the cfo of hsbc, and the credit losses are certainly set to mount. and we arelutely, specifically about that because we did see guidance in terms of 2020, that 3 billion number could rise to between seven and 11 billion. ewen stevenson did say there was great uncertainty on the credit loss forecast based on the

uncertainty around coronavirus. in terms of that, we asked about the dividend because that was halted because of the u.k. regulator, among hong kong sayingrs, ewen stevenson dividend decisions will be made at your end. he also said it is hard to predict the path of revenue but costs will fall because going into these numbers, they had a big transformation playing in february but that is put on hold to some extent, certainly with regard to the 35,000 job cuts planned because of the uncertainty around the coronavirus but the absolute focus in terms of what is coming through from the numbers was the credit losses because hsbc had to set aside the most for those in almost nine years. ubs, another big corporate story this morning. 40%, the announced $1.6 billion, a beat on what they previously announced.

they go want to talk about the quality of their credit losses, 268 million dollars. they talk about high quality credit exposure. what is happening with clients? short-termlls in the to 46%. you are seeing profits rise. they are not a story of provisions, but talking about high-quality in terms of credit exposures. they are seeing pressure on income streams, on net interest. production within clients, in other words, how much risk to the clients want to take? down 22%, the stock. income gains 46%, also seeing the equity side of the business do nicely. they saw that up by 18%. maybe not as out for as the

american saw. we will speak to sergio ermotti in just under 15 minutes. he's getting ready for that call. for the rest of the markets, you are dealing with bank of indonesia buying debt from the government. that is the monetization of debt. the bank of the japan yesterday, awaiting the fed to be more forward guidance. s&p futures down .2%. that market is coming off a six-week high. an investment strategist said we have reached the low point. euro stoxx 50, up .2%. comeond markets, it will down to the express communication from jay powell this week on the directionality of the bond market. will he go for an unemployment rate of 4%? inflation target? that level of expressed forward guidance.

another day, another 12% of are we near the low? jeff korea goldman sachs said you will see spikes in volatility on the downside and it is all about shut in rather than me shutting up. it all.hat says at least it wasn't like last monday and we didn't go negative but the uso selling holdings in ending june contract, may 19. we will keep an eye on that and the lead up to it. coronavirus,o global confirmed cases of coronavirus have passed 3 million with over 210,000 deaths as the u.s. approaches one million infections. president trump unveiled a new testing strategy monday that he said will allow the economy to reopen as the coalition for epidemic preparedness innovation says a vaccine for vulnerable groups could be available even faster than the 12 to 18 months

previously suggested. joining us now is the head of investment strategy at abu dhabi commercial bank. great to have you with us. there isn't a lot of risk on today's session, even with some of the updates we had over the past 24 hours in terms of testing, the reopening of the u.s. economy, but also a little bit of perhaps hope on the right -- horizon for a vaccine. what sort of strategy are you taking around equity markets at the moment? luciano? guest inet back to our a moment. we've obviously got a little technical issue. it has been happening quite a bit in these unprecedented times . meanwhile, we've had our eye strongly on the corporate news,

two big banks reporting, hsbc and ubs. with both ofsbc, them, it comes back to coronavirus as with every company we have been looking at for the first quarter. hsbc, 2020 credit losses possibly mounted seven to $11 billion after it took its biggest charge for bad debt in almost nine years already with credit losses swelling to $3 billion in the first quarter. that was almost double the estimate. it is pushing back on the restructuring program to deal with the virus, the 35,000 job cuts talked about in february on hold, but when we did speak to the cfo ewen stevenson earlier, there were a lot of things we got through with him. he said it is hard to but it -- predict path of revenue, but the dividend decision will be made at year-end. key question over the halting of the dividend on the request of u.k. regulators.

then, oil and gas exposure was interesting to talk about, as well in terms of the singapore oil trade. singaporenson saying was a significant charge, but that was a single client. he didn't get a lot more details on that. in terms of credit loss forecast, he said there is great uncertainty even around the numbers guided. --'ve been speaking to us you will be speaking to sergio ermotti shortly. manus: what it comes down to about who has exposure, when you look at ubs, $1.6 billion, sergio ermotti will join us shortly, that is a 40% lift in profitability, the best quarter in nearly two years but their exposure to the oil and gas sector has dropped 75% is 2015, so in many ways, while he talks on the top line about credit losses of $268 million, talk about high-quality credit losses. hsbc, as you rightly said, gave its guidance their credit losses

could be seven to $11 billion. $268 million for sergio ermotti and ubs. what is their worst case scenario for the rest of the year? you saw credit suisse $1 billion and they say the worst is not done. billion,ill bill -- $3 saying itder, lucaino is very bad, but we will try to get to lucaino in a moment. those are some of the big issues. in terms of provisions. nejra: cannot wait for that interview with sergio ermotti, coming up in just a moment. let's get to the first word news. hsbc, taking its biggest charge of bad debt in almost nine years, expected credit losses swelled to $3 billion in the first quarter. the banks profit also missed profits. restructuring delayed.

the u.k. is urging britons to stick with the locked down for now as signs of easing restrictions. the chief medical officer is warning the coming months are fraught with uncertainty. holding its annual general meeting today after an unprecedented rebuke last year, the ceo seems to be on a firmer footing. he's won praise for bringing in new legal experts and prioritizing settlement. donald trump says he knows the health state of kim jong-un but didn't give specifics, saying the public would hear additional details in the not-too-distant future. kim's absence fueled speculation after surgery. the president said i just wish him well. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.

manus: coming up, we will continue the conversation with sergio ermotti, the ubs ceo. lender'sthe swiss biggest loan-loss in a decade. what are the clients up to? that conversation shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i'm manus cranny in dubai and nejra cehic in london. to has expressed confidence withstand a surge in bad loans despite setting aside the most in a decade. they also warned the outbreak onl put pressure

recurring fee income and net interest income due to low interest. delivered 1.6 billion dollars, slightly ahead of the previous announcement. sergio ermotti joins us now. great to have you with us. can we kick off with your credit losses? $268 million, the highest number in a decade. the reference point is it is good quality in terms of the credit exposure you have. please guard the market in terms of how that -- tough that could get for 2020? what could that go to by the end of the year? sergio: first of all, let me point out that our credit losses during last quarter, the outcome of a strategy and clear risk reward, priorities we put in place on how we manage the financial resources of the bank

and it is also reflecting a very effective way for us to manage ands on a short-term basis last but not least, it reflects the fact that our business model sees a high degree of concentration in lending exposure in switzerland and in general asset based, so where we underlying degree of relatively we can be optimistic about the extent to which credit losses will impact our future. we are also going to be affected by that. in the announcement, you talk about recurring fee income, net interest income and transaction-based income all under pressure. he's not going to come to bear on the members in the rest of

the year -- is that going to come to bear on the numbers and the rest of the year? sergio: on currency, it depends very much on where acid levels will be -- asset levels will be, particularly markets. the starting point for q2 is lower. we expect a contraction of around 250 million on the net recurring fees. was stable, but it will be challenging and because of lower rates, we continue to dent margins on that front. loans,extending more which is helping us mitigate that part. on the other end, a more normalized environment in terms of the transaction volumes and we feel that the combination of both those factors, positive and

negatives in addition to the fact we are continuing to execute on our strategy helps estimate get the negative effects. aboutcus is really all whileuing to perform staying relevant to our clients and keeping our employee safe and healthy so they can continue to do a great job, because eventually, when you look at first quarter, you saw ubs at its best and us being able to form across many dimensions. manus: let's talk about a word you used twice now. a couple weeks ago, you said we are doing more lending, more loans. where are you seeing the most uplifted lending? side with credit to or on the wealth management side and the geography? just a little more color. lending -- we

expanded lending by 15 billion across the board geographically, which is in addition to what we are doing in switzerland, where we extended 2.5 billion in the government-backed programs, and we made a commitment in the u.s. for another 2 billion. we extended 15 billion in extra lending across every geography, across all businesses. in switzerland, we extended almost 2.6 billion in extra credit to swiss companies, one billion of mortgages. in wealth management, we had an expansion of lending around 4 billion, coming up to the end of the quarter, but it is quite interesting to see, for example,

in asia in march, you saw some deleveraging. the net number is all about the fact that some clients went risk on and off during the quarter, but across the board, we see lending demand is exactly what we are supposed to do and want to do at this time to help clients go through these difficult times, but also at the same time, keeping our capital strength, the discipline in how we manage rates so we can protect the other side of the balance sheet, our depositors. manus: indeed. talking about declines, i looked at your certain -- the clients, your survey. near-term optimism collects is 37%6%, medium-term 76% and looking to investment. where is the wealth management clients at the moment? friday scaling up activity into this rally we are seeing inequities and credit?

give me a sense of the momentum through the past month. sergio: i think if you look in march, we saw some deleveraging coming in march and some asset allocation shift. at this stage, as i mentioned last time we spoke, we are still favoring more the credit side of the asset allocation. we believe credit is offering a better risk-adjusted return and it is probably more reflecting the true expectations on the macro economic environment for the foreseeable future compared to equities. are you still see some atractive opportunities on single stock basis, but overall valuations are more stretched. i would say in general, the clients are ready to deploy cash in a selective way, but as they thecated, awaiting

situation to clarify over the next couple of quarters. anus: we are certainly seeing little good news in terms of italy and spain and new york. one of those moments between us. don't hang up the line, don't run away. quick break and return to sergio ermotti, the ceo of ubs shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: i'm manus cranny. nejra cehic is in london, our guest is group ceo of ubs sergio ermotti. we talk about good and bad volatility. upee the equity business is by 18%, but what does volatility mean for clients and businesses? are they clash?

-- clashing? sergio: he generally, volatility at this stage is supporting thents engaging into necessity of options and capturing options premiums through structural products but from an asset allocation volatility high means a lot of uncertainty and as long as we have high volatility across assets, it is atficult for clients to look strategic asset allocations. israll, some volatility helpful, but too much, over time, it may put clients off investment decisions. manus: is that pushing them

toward cash, raising their cash balances? are you actively encouraging more cash and risk off? sergio: i think we are encouraging diversification. there are some interesting opportunities on how to deploy cash, but on the credit side of the equation, when you look at high-grade, investment-grade but also in a high-yield space, there are some good opportunities so in general, you see a little bit of cashing in and deleveraging, but i wouldn't call it a meaningful change compared to what we have seen over the last two quarters. manus: time is really short with this. since we spoke, the fed has begun to buy junk bonds. is that good for markets or a risk, briefly? at this stage,

every possible solution has to be used in order to counter -- counter the effect of the virus, but there will be a point in time at which maybe we need to rain back a little bit the situation, because potentially, the market cannot get too used to those kinds of interventions and eventually, we need more structural changes and reforms across the board, not only in the u.s., but in europe to tackle the crisis. sergio ermotti of ubs, thank you for joining us on bloomberg. good to see you with your protective armor behind you. sergio ermotti, we will see you soon. . nejra: amazing interview today but back to markets, we are looking at green on the screen in asia. u.s. futures fluctuate, european futures in the green.

10-year, dead steady. a 25% plunge yesterday and uso selling all holdings in the june contract. it expires may 19. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ anna: good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." i am anna edwards live in london. the cash trade is less than an hour away. here are your top headlines. bad loans dominate bank earnings, ij's sbc -- as hsbc takes its biggest charge in some nine years. we will speak with the cfo of santander on this program. wti extends losses to almost 35%