and a mayday within pandemic. alabama and texas will open beaches as california will close beaches. the copacabana in rio is closed, sort of. no word of a german beach report, yet this is not funny. yesterday,lobally new jersey leading the nation in deaths. oneon and apple employee million people and they adjust to the pandemic. apple has bought back 24% of shares in the past five years. "the singled july, best way to ensure a robust bug."ry is to beat the this is bloomberg "surveillance," on a mayday, on a friday. after the exhausting week we

have had, it is good to get to some form of celebration with some markets closed. how will you celebrate mayday with your cherubs this year? francine: we won't, is the simple truth, although may 1 in italy, youedley -- usually buy lily of the valley for people you love. there is a controversy because you cannot show up at florist, you have to order them online. it is not because it is may 1 that the lockdown is eased. buy them online. it is the little nuances but people miss that make it quite heavy as we go on. mood int is exactly the america, drowning in little nuances as we tried to get through this pandemic.

optimismwe looked with at may and now even june, people are beginning to frame july. right now, our first word news in new york city. viviana: the u.s. federal reserve expanding the scope of its main street lending program. businesses with up to 15,000 employees will be eligible and also those with up to $5 billion in revenue. the central bank is expanding its paycheck protection facility after the first rounding of dust round of spending was -- round of spending was spent. pandemics introducing operationlonger-term options. china may not have chosen to contain the coronavirus.

this is speculation from president donald trump. that theen evidence origin was wuhan and it got out i a lab mistake. investigating. china says the allegations are u.k., a planin the to lift the lockdown. boris johnson is suggesting that people will be encouraged to wear face masks. he says the u.k. is past the peak of the disease and on a downward slope. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. tom: thanks so much. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, gold pulling back well under $1700 announced but

it is bonds -- $1700 an ounce, but it is bonds that get my attention. the disinflationary of two year yields in germany and in the .02%.icely below francine: u.s. futures retreating, weighing on european stocks. it is because of this persistent economic turmoil that markets may be taking some of their gains. i did spend time looking out the forecast of the european central bank and it is not great this year or next. there seems to be a risk off mood. it is a holiday in many major markets. tom: it is mayday. over theeen identified years as international workers day, and what we want to do is a

smart conversation with truly one of the world's experts on labor economy, david blanchflower. he is definitive on the wage curve of 20 plus years ago, reestablished how we have looked at the atomic, the micro nature of how we get, keep, and lose jobs. we are thrilled danny blanchflower could join us. i will go right to the beginning of your magisterial book where atomisticabout the labor economy. you were way out front on how we would blow up those relationships of labor. can we ever get back to some form of increasing labor share in the global economy? obviously, you have these great questions. i don't really know, but if you look back in the past, people

start thinking about what happens in past pandemics and it appears that labor share may well change. perhaps the big change we will see is that people really start to appreciate the work of medical folks, people in the think liferes, so i is dependent on these folks, many of whom have been underpaid. after all of this, will we go back to a world of austerity like we did in 2010 or not? my suspicion is that the balance of power has shifted somewhat. our lives are so dependent on these fantastic folks, but it is a tough one to look on a day where i am looking at things that say, i read these lines that say this dropped at the fastest rate in a 28 year survey

history, and i keep reading that and seeing that. there is no precedent to this. it is hard to see what recovery is, but labor is struggling and the scary thing is people are having to line up for food. this sort of shakes the balance and we will have to re-balance -- rethink everything. tom: your work recently, lisa abramowicz mentioned that the other day, your work recently on inequality and on jobs that are sort of jobs of the underemployed is extraordinary. will we revert back to where our medical personnel are unemployed -- underemployed? david: they have certainly been over employed right now, but going forward we will see a huge

rise that people have not focused on yet, in people's incomes being lower than they would like them to be, because even if they have a job, they cannot get enough hours so going back to your original question, people's incomes will be impacted. riseuestion is, will they in any real sense going forward? what we are seeing, and what is the central bank and the government doing? everyone is trying to make up for the fact that people's incomes are being impacted hugely, and the big deal will be the weakest people will be the ones hurt the most, and they are by the virus. the young and least educated, that will be a problem and we will have to work with that -- deal with that. this is a major event for the labor market too. francine: danny, good morning from london. the relationship

citizens have with government and well it change in the u.s. -- will it change in the u.s. and the u.k., and what will that social contract look like? david: a great question. i am looking at a picture in front of me, the u.k. pmi for manufacturing. i remember on this program many times, what happened in 2008. we are already worse than 2008. i am looking at a line that is a straight line downwards. these kinds of shocks shake everything. , thempact on our health underinvestment in public health, the underinvestment in health services, this will shake the fabric of our society. that is where we are.

the lines are at record lows. that does not mean it cannot go lower. what does a recovery look like? many people argue it will look like av. like we -- likely it will be a long l and people will suffer. we thought about it going into march and april and now we are in may and talking about june and july, so the fabric of things will change. will people go to jim's and shopping malls? and they save more -- gyms shopping malls? will they save more than in the past? it is a fundamental shift of everything. francine: we have never done this before. we are basically taking the world economy and spending it. do we need to make sure that government intervention, her ishs, and told

evidence of -- until there is evidence of people going back to the gym and restaurants and airlines? david: what other choices there? 10,000 people in san antonio, texas lining up for food. 40%fed survey told us that of the people in america last year could not survive a 400 exigent. $400 exicengy. how will we feed our government other than through the food banks? the social fabric does not have the wherewithal these days to sustain themselves. the government will have to do that and the challenge in america is to get money to the

people who need it, the people at the low end who are not working. those folks cannot afford to stay at home and there is worry of spread of the virus. the issue of what we do of people let the low-end will have to be fundamentally thought about and altered. tom: let's turn to monetary theory, and it is easy to do that with david blanchflower and his work at the bank of england. danny blanchflower at dartmouth, we will continue. an interesting and timing -- timely conversation with a new guest on banking process and regulation. --d down, yields older equities coming in. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ this is bloomberg "surveillance," tom and francine from london and new york. we were having a great conversation with danny blanchflower, so let's get back to that. when you look at some of the legacies that we will be left with because of the crisis, can we be sure that this doesn't turn into a financial crisis? is it thanks to 2008 that we have learned to have better capitalized banks, that at least that part of the economy we do not have to worry too much about? david: i think the difference this time around -- there is two differences. in 2008, the financial sector was the cause of the collapse

and central bankers and policymakers took a long time to respond. -- i think the reality this time is that people reacted really quickly. emergency meetings of the mpc in the fed, the reality -- and the fed, the reality is how much can they do? my favorite quote from 1930, not about the crash itself but the long, dragging conditions and semi-slump that follows, that is the big deal. does the pandemic extend itself into an economic crisis and then into a financial crisis? the danger is that is what happens, partly because people become exhausted seeing this all over. we have done enough and the

answer of course is we have not done enough because we are nowhere near the bottom, hence we keep seeing congress and others have to keep going. the reality is the bottom is nowhere near. people have learned from 2008 but we are in the long, dragging conditions of semi-slump and this will go on for a long time. the lesson we learned is if you stop too soon, that is a problem. francine: is there a danger that inflation suddenly picks up because of all the stimulus, once we see a recovery? david: i remember being asked that question. in 2008 when this started, central banks did not respond because they were worried about 5% inflation in august of 2008 and quickly we got to deflation. this is an incredibly deflationary shock, so the argument that inflation will come back is again, on another

planet. what we are trying to stop his deflationary shocks. think of the oil price. is the oil price anywhere near a positive number? we have seen it go negative. put aside your worry about inflation in a disinflationary environment, and if inflation emerges we will deal with it but the answer is no. outside the seven villages around hanover, new hampshire, there are a fair number of people who cannot make the rent. they are simply not going to make the rent on this may 1. would you explain -- and i say this with great explict -- respect for whales and what you have done with england -- -- wales and what you have done with england -- why reticence of

income programs during crisis? david: it is interesting. i have heard lindsey graham talking about that what matters is there is help being given is too much. the help being given to people is too little, but the problem to this crisis -- in this crisis as they cannot get work, through no fault of their own. they cannot search for work because there is not any work. the reality is we have to deal with the fact that people are not working, they have no savings. thatt the system up such inequality has risen so much, people cannot pay the rent. the number one priority is temporarily while people are unable to work, to ensure that they can pay the rent and eat. at the very least, we have to protect the landlords too because they probably have to pay a mortgage.

the inequality we have means the most vulnerable are being impacted and we have to do something to get money to them. sense, oure -- in a problem is not recognizing that but getting money to people who need it. all have not got a bank account coming -- with the irs and a check is coming in september. it will not feed people for 10 weeks. that is the reality. tom: danny blanchflower, thank you so much, david blanchflower from dartmouth college. narayana kocherlakota created a firestorm on our fed show advocating the need for negative rates 2, 3, 4 fed meetings out from here. look for a conversation later today. futures lower, it is mayday. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ are watching bloomberg's "surveillance." scotland isnk of setting aside $1 billion for bad loans, almost 10 times the amount it set aside last year. barclays and lloyds making some new -- moves, bracing for the number of our worst struggling to -- borrowers struggling to

pay their bills. teaming up to make one billion coronavirus is -- coronavirus vaccines a year. they say the first batches will be produced in the u.s. in july by the end of 2020. the trump administration wants to make shots available for americans but it could take longer. boeing is selling $25 billion of bonds, the largest offering this year. the company says it eliminates the need for more cash. mostg burned through the money ever in the first quarter. that is your bloomberg business flash. tom: thanks so much. on to the data with deterioration in the equity futures -416. the vix goes out almost four big

figures, 38. a tough day for the equity markets. francine? francine: we have a full round up of the markets and we speak to airlines and tourism, travel reports. we speak to the heathrow chief executive to see what he thinks will be the new normal for people traveling. later this evening, catch our special, coronavirus: medicines critical challenge. that is it 8:00 p.m. eastern 8:00 -- 9:00is at p.m. eastern time. ♪

♪ francine: this is bloomberg "surveillance." tom and francine from our respect of homes, on weeks --

respective homes. travelers, we talk about heathrow and what travel will become in the next couple of months. if you look at the coronavirus impact and one of the biggest ,irports in the world, heathrow april numbers are expected to be down some 97% even though the airport remains open. they are working with partners to establish a standard for safer air travel. we are thrilled to be joined by the heathrow chief executive, john holland-kaye. great to have you on the program . when do you expect -- and i know we have varying visibility on the lock down -- but when do you expect to return to more normal travel, incoming months or 2021? john: i think it will be in the

coming months and also in 2021. this industry is not people's willingness to travel, it is whether they can travel safely. there is two things we need to do. we need to get the infection rate down in this country and other countries. the second is to make sure we have common international standards for health and flying so people can be confident they will not be affected on their journey. time, standards need to be put in place at the airport so we can make it happen , and the sooner we can open, we can get people flying again. how will customer experience change when it goes back to something more normal?

will we see social distancing and how will that work on planes to mark will it be temperance -- on planes? will it be temperature checks? john: social distancing cannot work on any transportation system and definitely not in an airport. yesterdayhe terminals with just a few thousand passengers yesterday, it is difficult to manage. we have to look at an alternative solution. what you see in an asian airport before this pandemic, a combination of measures to make sure only low risk people are traveling and the risk of infection is very low. what that looks like is probably something like a thermal check as you enter the airport but only -- that only allows passengers in the airport system wearing masks, very common in

asia, not so common in europe and the u.s., and good hygiene in the airport. distancing so the airport workers are kept separate from the passengers, so you will have screens and more alterations. that package of measures will not feel that different because the things youe are experiencing. beer than that, you should able to go about your journey like you have been. it may feel more automated one other times you are meeting an individual -- when other times you are meeting an individual. your airport is absolutely within class in the world,

the very high fees and taxes you have i want to combine -- have. responses.ombine two sir richard branson is fighting for his life with virgin atlantic and the other is the future of smaller airports like gatwick and their relationship with ba. where will we be in a few years with virgin atlantic and smaller airports fighting for their life to mark john: it depends -- on -- fighting for their life? john: it depends. airlines and airports will have gone bankrupt in 12 to 18 months time or will have been nationalized. sure [ make

indiscernible] the u.s. government was rick to make sure it protected airports. -- wic to make sure it protected airports -- quick to make sure it protected airports. exporter or ae in manufacturer who relies on the supply chain or a hotel or tourist business or university, you all rely on flight coming from heathrow, and unless we can get those up and running quickly, the whole u.k. economy will be suffering along in second gear. of: within the complexity cathay pacific or qantas and the unique relationship with you by, -- dubai, do you presume there will be government bailout of

your industry, or a private market consolidation? john: i think it will be a combination. it is good for consolidation, but there in mind that many of the airports who want to consolidate do not have the capital to do that if the wait 3, 4re having to months before passengers come back, that is manageable. if it is 12 to 18 months, most will be out of business by then. 180 million jobs in the sectors for aviation, that is why we have to solve all of these things, get people flying again as soon as it is safe to do so. francine: do you have any forecast on how many jobs will be permanently lost in your sector? john: it is hard to say. what we can see already is

aviation businesses are having to make the call earlier than many others to make job cuts, and the reason is with no cost, wet all, a high are burning through cash very quick. heathrow alone is burning through 200 million pounds of cash every month and that is not sustainable. if we know the market will come back in three to five months, we will make a different decision then if it is going to come back in 12 months time. we will have to cut very deep if we have to wait 12 months, and that is why the government should give us some confidence. jobs are on the line. the reason we are seeing this in aviation isr because it is expected to be one of the last industries to

recover. people start to get back to their jobs again, aviation relies on international travel and if we wait 12 months, most of aviation will be dead. holland-kaye, my only piece of advice for your airport is on the trains between the terminals to have cows mooing like they do in zurich. we thank him very much. , butve much more coming up right now a mayday news update. andana: the coronavirus gilead sciences may spend $1 billion on its new treatment for covid-19, but how much revenue can it generate? gilead said it is too early to

tell. it is getting that it is giving out its first 1.1 million vials of the drug. apple, for the first time in more than a decade is not providing it forecast, sparking speculation it may suffer. shares down and extended trading. retail sales hit a quarterly record. in the u.k., a comprehensive plan to lift the lockdown, this is boris johnson's pledge and he will set out details for how businesses can reopen. he is suggesting people will be encouraged to wear face masks. he said that u.k. is passed the peak of the disease and is on a downward slope. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg.

tom: thanks so much. this is an important conversation coming up, not about holding or plus or minus polling oror plus -- plus or minus. it is about the mood in america. mohamed younis from gallup. ♪

♪ bloomberg "surveillance," tom keene and francine lacqua. the people from gallup, gallup is esteemed, and original stance on polling which is much more about the mood, emotion, beliefs

of americans versus counting toward the presidential election. mohamed younis has important insight. what i see so tangible across the media and the headlines of the newspapers as there is a raging battle about get back to work, etc., etc., and the is peopled the tone want to stay in lockdown until it is safe. what does gallup perceive? mohamed: we asked that specific question and i will jump to that now. if all asked americans restrictions were removed from local or federal government, would you go back to your normal activities now? 21% of americans would be ready to go right away, 36% will wait for the number of new cases in their state to decline, 31% say

after there are no new cases in their state, and 12% say they will wait until after a vaccine is developed. there has not and a lot of movement on those items. there has been an 8% increase in people saying they are ready to go back to work. there is an important partisan divide. -- of her cub fans republicans are ready to go back republicans have gone up 19 points when it comes to that question. people are obviously itching to go back but many will wait and see how this unfolds. tom: if you were to have a collective cup of coffee this morning with vice president biden and the president of the united states, what would you get the good politicians

most wrong about the mood of america? mohamed: the number one thing i would tell them both as to be very wary of intruding into local decision-making. when we ask americans about how they approve the job being done and the various actors carrying the local prices, local actors have fared much better than national officials. hospitals and the how they are handling the crisis. improve --icans approve of how their employers have handled the crisis. in -- approvens of how government health has handled the crisis. theapprove of the way president has handled the crisis approve of how

congress has handled the crisis. hasapprove of how the media handled the crisis. tom: he just said the media is doing the worst job. who let this guy out? francine: maybe not bloomberg "surveillance." as a foreigner living in london, what is surprising is it feels like this is partisan. it feels like depending on what spectrum politically you are, whether you support staying with the lockdown or not. do you have evidence of that your data? -- that in your data? mohamed: republicans are twice as likely as the national average to say they are ready to go back to their normal activities right now. that being said, it is still not a majority of republicans ready back back democrats -- go

democrats are more like -- republicans ready to go back in 10ats -- seven in thens had confidence honesty of the media during the nixon era. it has been a decline of a persistent low approval we have seen particularly from republicans, but on the national level even, of all the institutions we ask about in the crisis, the media was the only institution that got a majority saying they disapprove. the media is a real big challenge. what has been happening on the media in the u.s. has been --iticized francine, politicized. crisis has taken a

partisan turn that will only increase. dr. fauci has a pretty strong approval from democrats and republicans, and those actors who were clearly leading with medical expertise and not political interest are faring better and getting bipartisan approval from americans. those who are partisan actors such as the president or the democrats are again seeing nine out of 10 of their base supporting them, but that is pretty much it when it comes to anyone else in the country. as this crisis takes a more partisan turn, it will be critical to see how this impacts the election. it is remarkable that we have forgotten there is a presidential election in a few short months. the economy is always the number one issue americans think about when they go to vote.

it is always the economy and health care, and today economy and the health care are wrapped up when we asked -- wrapped up. americans about their personal financial situations, we saw in april the largest drop we have seen since the great recession, a 52% drop in americans saying the economy is going from getting better to getting worse. our economic consonants was at a two-month high a year ago and now is at historic lows. francine: thank you so much, mohamed younis, gallup editor-in-chief. to johns hopkins university to talk about .ovid-19 with dr. andrew pekosz this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ this is bloomberg "surveillance," tom and francine from london and new york.

every day, we are lucky to speak with johns hopkins about what covid-19 means, what the breakthroughs are, and what more can be done. we speak with andrew pekosz. thank you for giving us a little bit of your time. clinical trials, there is a lot of confusion of some of the drugs that have trials and have been tested, if they work, don't work. what do we know about remde sivir? andrew: it has had a couple of reports out. one from the nih shows significant promise and if it is given early enough in the course of infection it seems to improve the time in which people get better. a report out of china suggests it was less successful, but those patients were being treated much later in the disease process at a time where

not just the virus is causing damage but also your immune response. i would say there is cautious optimism, but it certainly seems like it will be a treatment that is probably more effective the sooner one gets it rather than later in the infection process. francine: what do you think will be a game changer? concerns about personal information that would let you get in contact with people who have been touched or in contact with someone with covid-19 and antibody testing, what will be a real game changer in saving lives in getting people out of lock down? andrew: the better we are at treating individuals and getting them out of the hospital, that will be one important thing. that will free up more medical

resources, testing resources, and will allow us to switch to this late phase of dealing with the pandemic. we have a lot of hope for antibody tests. over the next couple of weeks, we should get a good idea of what kind of antibodies are mediating protection from reinfection, and once we know that we can go after people in the population who should have a higher resistance to infection, and that will allow us to come forward with a more detailed plan to open our economy and loosen the public health interventions most of the world is currently under. francine: in 20 seconds, will we be much wiser about this virus in two months, or will it take longer? will knowo months, we incredibly more about the virus, how we treat it and how we respond to it.

francine: andrew pekosz, thank you so much, from johns hopkins university. we will have a full round up of covid-19 and the medicines to treat it. thanng volumes are thinner usual because it is mayday so a lot of money markets are closed. coming up, we have a great conversation on central banks. we look at dollar dynamics. to question, will this lead inflationary pressure once we have a recovery? this is bloomberg. ♪

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guidance again, reducing plans for spending in 2022 as low as $14 billion for the year -- in 2020 two as low as $14 billion for the year. apple does not provide a forecast for the first time in a decade. the haves and have-nots of big tech. in the white house takes aim at china. president trump place is more blame on the coronavirus. he's also considering an in chinese funds for -- in the market, if no one says sell in may and go away during the next two hours, i will be happy because that is what we were seeing. we had a great run in april for the s&p. now we are seeing a pretty steep selloff in the futures market. you're going to see some really weird volume coming in.