basis points is pricing in anything except a lot of bad news, is probably not the way to look at it. there is a lot of bad news in the bond market. it will take a long time for the bond market to work out the credit side. and it seems equities of the big beneficiary. romaine: speaking with barbara reinhard of foia. getting the closing bell, ending down on the dow, s&p 500 down around lows of the day, heading into green for the nasdaq indices, again the lows of the day as well. utilities, energies, financials are the biggest laggers on the day, strength in the tech sector, that is why you saw nasdaq and the philadelphia semiconductor index as well, indexes that track hardware and software companies. mercknners, beyond meat,

otto libre, the amazon of central america up on the day, reinforced bying the covid-19 environment and that seems to be reinforced by reports. scarlet: taking a look at the nasdaq 100, which covers the biggest 100 companies and the nasdaq composite index, it is at a one-week high, even though we have seen other indices limp into the close and ended the day near their session lows. we have more earnings coming out. t-mobile is the latest company to report, first quarter etf revenuer the period, $11 million, short of what --

$11 billion, short of what analysts were looking for. still awaiting peloton ,nd fox, etsy and other name different companies that have been to fitted -- that have benefited from the lockdown, along with tech. regardless of where you look, apple, microsoft, facebook or amazon, they continue to get bid higher on the idea they will come out of this even stronger. definitely, foursquare and paypal coming down the pike. still with us, barbara reinhard, asset allocation hit at voya. we have been talking a lot the last couple of weeks about dominance in the market in tech names and a big chunk of gains we have seen over the last two or three weeks has been because of microsoft and apple and amazon, etc. with regards to the

concentration of companies that have helped lead us higher, are you concerned we are maybe too concentrated in those names, or is it fine? is a big concern for everybody, because narrow leadership generally is a sign of an unhealthy market. when you look off the march 23 bottom, there are only four sectors that are beating the s&p 500, consumer discretionary, information, technology materials and then health care. without broad leadership, especially since you are not counting financials are industrials against a group that are doing relatively better than the s&p 500 index that, that is concerning. i think the recent the big mega cap u.s. names are driving a lot of returns is because a lot of investors are fleeing to what they know. in times of uncertainty, people

tend to go back to their old favorites. i would expect, as you see continued progress on the infection rates continuing to decline, you would start to see it brought out, but that is something we are watching very carefully and very closely. scarlet: i want to bring up something romain talked about, the new york fed study that sifted through different earnings calls. 600 earnings conference calls in the month of april, to map out the fallout from the coronavirus crisis. discussed the calls cutting investment, 27% this cost cutting equity payouts, 17% talked about drawing down on credit lines. and they extrapolated that this was worse than what they had seen during the great financial crisis. and based on what they had seen in 2008, sentiment won't normalize for a year. what otherthe case,

unintended consequences will come out as a result? barbara: those companies are right to make that assertion. there is no visibility at this point. i don't think anyone has a clear sense of how things are going to unfold, in part because one of the biggest things we don't have much intelligence on is how the disease progresses. so the big issue we are focusing is companiesent big,are, that have regenerative cash flow. the other issue that you have is related to consumer confidence. if you look at the contours of the u.s. economy, it is the consumer the drives 70% of gdp. so you need to see consumer confidence coming off of extremely elevated levels. and that means you need to see economies reopening and people feeling confident in doing

regular, normal activities, even if they are doing so in a new way, wearing a face mask, washing your hands more often, but watching the consumer is the most important things desk important thing for us. scarlet: let's look at the consumer, peloton reporting results, up 80% since march 16, third-quarter revenue, increasing 66% versus last year, much higher than what analysts had been looking for. they anticipated just below $489 million. peloton also getting a brighter outlook, so not withdrawing guidance, sticking with a showing guidance and saying it now sees full gear adjusted profits, so remember, its losing money right now but does look for a full year profit on an adjusted basis. it has also increased its full-year revenue outlook as bill. having said all that, romaine, it is incurring higher costs to

quicken shipments of treadmills and bicycles to those who need it to stay fit. --: romaine: lift earnings lyft earnings, 97 point $4 million adjusted loss. expected,ower than revenue 956 million dollars, above the $829 million estimates. ,ctive writers -- active riders growth did slow, it was growing 50% on a year-over-year basis and in the quarter that growth was around 23%. we will look at the numbers further when we get them. have earnings out of 21st century fox. $.52 quarter adjusted, down versus $.76 last year, also falling short of consensus

estimate of $.70. revenue for the period, 100 b $.4 million -- -- $184.4 million. 180 $4.4t fox, million, revenue of 200 million was expected by analyst. correction for the third-quarter adjustment, $.93 is the number we should be looking at for adjusted earnings per share, the analyst consensus was $.70. perhaps there is a new number for revenue as well. i will continue to look for that. romaine romaine: etsy -- romaine. romaine: etsy numbers hitting aps,ire, $.24 estimate on the company withdrawing its yearly forecast and will temporarily move to providing quarterly guidance, a reflection of how fast things are adjusting. even out arjun about $75 million

to $90 million, the forecast etsy is providing, shares up 2% in after-hours trading. scarlet. scarlet: fintech company square coming up with the results as well, first quarter growth volume up 14%, shy of what analysts were looking for at 15.5%. the company says first quarter net revenue was slightly higher , third quarterte adjusted, $9 million, the company not providing outlook for the second or the whole year when it comes to topline or bottom line. romaine: we are going to dive deeper into these numbers later. we will say goodbye to barbara reinhard, senior asset manager asset manager at voya.

you miss" is coming up next on bloomberg. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

♪ romaine: broadcasting live from new york, i'm romaine bond -- i'mromaine bought -- romaine bostick broadcasting alongside scarlet fu and this is "what'd you miss?" dowlet: the essence be and finishing losses, nasdaq holding ,ains, paring the advance microsoft, apple, amazon helping lift the nasdaq 100 and nasdaq composite rate otherwise, a

paring of risk appetite headed to the close. after the market close, we got a slew of earnings, some better-than-expected romaine: lyft,start with lift -- shares in after-hours training up 16%, losses lower than , 179 the average consensus estimate. not only was the loss slightly lower than expected, revenue $955.7 million, the estimate was 829 point $6 million, most estimates coming in higher. similar movement in etsy shares after hours, reporting results slightly better-than-expected. gross merchandise volume as well as revenue coming in slightly above. they did pull full-year guidance and said they would provide

quarterly guidance, giving -- given how fast things are moving these days. scarlet: one company unafraid to give guidance, peloton, the fitness company, bike company, reporting revenue rising 60 rising 66% versus the same time last year. this stock has gained 80% since march 16 and now sees full-year adjusted profit as well. companythe fintech grows quarter payment volume rose 14%, shy of what analysts had been looking at. square is pulling guidance for this quarter and the year. we will keep you posted on buther earnings that cross, in the meantime, a big picture look at the economy, particularly the labor market. numbers out of edp today show showte -- out of adp today

private payrolls shrank 20 million from a month earlier. this follows jobless data over the past month. hopes for a quick recovery begin to fade as temporary layoffs turn permanent. want to welcome erica groshen former commissioner of u.s. bureau of labor statistics, bls. vicelso observed as president in the research and statistics group in the new york fed and is currently a faculty member at columbia university pool of industrial and labor relations. thanks are taking the time to join us. on's start with your view the labor market. you have taken a close look at what tends to happen in downturns, when companies lay off workers. they can choose to do so want to temporary or permanent basis. what happens historically when companies choose to lay off people on a temporary basis? workerso historically,

on temporary layoff do tend to be recalled by the same company thoseaid them off, and early, innd to happen the beginning parts of recoveries, and very rapidly. so recessions that have high proportions of temporary layoffs show faster rebounds. that has been part of the reason why the last three recessions have had long jobless recoveries, because companies hadn't used temporary layoffs much to adjust to recessions, in the past three recessions. when you look at the current situation, there are a lot of furloughs or temporary layoffs. there is also concerned about businesses shutting down, particularly small and

medium-sized businesses that may not recovery, particularly restaurants and travel and tourism. how do you factor that into your thinking with regard to the recovery we may see with jobs numbers? those concerns are well-placed. i don't mean to dismiss them. a company can recall its workers, but if it doesn't until restrictions are eliminated and demand returns for it, no matter what its intentions, it is not going to be able three hire the workers. those concerns are quite well-placed. this really gets than to the tother question -- gets then the further question, which is, is the life support that we are putting these companies on during this time of this self-induced, medically induced, we are putting the economy , whetherwhether that

the policy measures we take will be sufficient to keep enough of these companies alive? and that is something that will depend partly on things economists know less about, the epidemiology and biology of the virus, but also on the policy measures chosen. do they really reach any fragile companies, and are they sufficient? scarlet: we are referring to edp, loans and grants the government is giving these companies do not layoff their workers -- 10 not layoff their workers on a permanent layoff theirot workers on a permanent basis. is there any historical analogue to indicate how companies will respond, the longer this drags on? nothing that i

know about that really speaks to that issue. -- i'm notk about sure there is research i can think about. in thethat generally, great depression, when of the reasons that lasted so long was because of monetary policy and fiscal policy mistakes that were lack ofing that time, life support and stimulus being offered, stimulus on the part of policymakers. so i do think we are going to avoid those problems. i don't think it takes a study very fragile

lympanies are much more like to have to declare bankruptcy, the longer we are asking them to stay afloat without any extra support. it is also important to support the workers while they are out of a job. unemployment insurance short-term compensation can be very helpful, in addition to regular thesesation, and all measures that get money directly to the workers, so that they can continue to follow the safe and by following the safe practices, into the pandemic more quickly. scarlet: erica groshen, thank you for sharing your expertise with us, erica is the former

commissioner of u.s. bureau of labor statistics. we are looking forward to a report this friday were unemployment rate is expected to increase to 16.4%. coming up, we hear from the cfo of general motors on why she is comfortable with the company's liquidity position, even though it has zero production, this after a quarter when gm really expected the prime analysts and investors. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> inventories are something we are watching. we are well-positioned on most car lines. we came out of the strike last year, the labor part last year, and we have inventories and

frankly, it is going to be wepful in a scenario where are still looking at it. from a pickup perspective, we find ourselves in a situation where we have no inventory. but the good news, dealers have rotten very experienced managing through this constraints -- dealers have gotten very good on managing through the constraints in inventory and dig deep to make sales. that is the good news as we think about plans returning -- plants returning to work that we are targeting may 18. that should allow us to adjust the shortfall from an inventory standpoint. >> gm announced earnings at announced it took down money lines, $2ving credit billion in gm financial, after already amassing 33 billion dollars in liquidity. as you look forward, what tells you you are going to need that extra money? : if you think about our

liquidity, we have said we wanted to run a very strong investment balance sheet. that has come in handy in these times. we did and the first quarter with a strong liquidity position of $33.4 billion. david, it is difficult to anticipate what is going to happen, but we are taking steps to protect ourselves, whether it revolver andor suspending dividends and share repurchases as a precautionary measure to make sure we have additional liquidity. we are comfortable with our liquidity position now. it will take us well into q4, even in a scenario which is pretty onerous with zero production. restart, talk about when we have a restart, liquidity levels will recover. so i would say these actions are precautionary and proactive actions to make sure we have

additional liquidity offers in place. what we are focused on now is to safely restart the plants and get production up and running. david: this pandemic comes along at a time when the auto industry and general motors were going through a fundamental transformation to autonomous and electric vehicles. you have been investing quite a bit in both of those. on you changing your investment plan -- are you changing your investment plan as you deal with the aftereffects of the pandemic? dhivya: absolutely not. we are marching ahead with plans on ep's and davies and committed to an all electric future. and all the plans we have outlined recently in our capital withts day and ev day respect to the exciting product sets are going to be rolling out, we see little to no impact on any of these. capital actions we are taking and austerity actions we are taking will not impact the programs you outlined.

so we are fully committed to that. at the islands sheet we have been maintaining in the financial flexibility that we have allows us to go forward even in these challenging times. david: let me raise one issue, the pace of the introduction of new vehicles wouldn't decide ev's and davies in general, that has been a hallmark of ceo mary barra, increasing the pace of new vehicles. is that going to slow down? dhivya: we are committing to putting out -- committed to putting out rocks consumers are very excited about. that is not quick to change. we put the customer at the center of everything we do. you will see that continue with the products that we put out. romaine: if you want to see the full interview, check it out on the bloomberg terminal. paypal earnings, below estimates, one q net revenue, also below estimates, paypal shares moving lower in after hours trading. we break this down in depth in a

moment with lisa ellis from moffettnathanson. don't go anywhere. this is bloomberg. ♪ staying connected your way is easier than ever.

you're just a tap away from personalized support on xfinity.com. get faster internet speeds with a click. order xfi pods to your home in a snap. or change your xfinity services with just a touch. all in one place. you're only seconds away from all of that on xfinity.com. faster than a call. easy as a tap. now that's simple, easy, awesome. daddy, i found you! good job. now i'm gonna stay here and you go hide. watch your favorites from anywhere in the house with the xfinity stream app. free with your xfinity service. now any room can be a tv room. stream live tv, on demand shows and movies,

even your dvr recordings. download the xfinity stream app today to stream the entertainment you love. >> welcome back. earnings are crossing the wire. i believe you are looking at .quare scarlet:. i am. on one side, it is very exposed, but it is also getting a lift from cash app. that's compared with a consensus estimate, and like many companies, withdrawing guidance for this quarter and the full year. here withar story

paypal also withdrawing its revenue and earnings guidance. in att volumes did come 1.9 one billion and net revenue coming in slightly below the consensus estimates. further is andown economist or to give us her thoughts on what we saw today. let's start off with paypal. i'mnumbers aren't awful, not sure what they are telling me about the trendline for paypal's business. what are you seeing here? sa: for us, the critical line is the trend through april they provided, saying that revenue growth in april is settling out. more q2.expecting 15% that is a good number in our

about 7%use they have of their volume tied in e-commerce. and theye going strong .ave 30% of volume view, that is a key number and a good trendline coming out of april. scarlet: i want to get your thoughts on square. mentioned, small and medium-sized businesses are really hard-hit and there's no way around the fact they had to shut down bleakly. yet it has got this cash app. does that make up for loss of business on the others? -- other side? lisa: good question. square is like a tale of two cities right now. cash app can't completely

overcome the weakness. precrisis, it was about a quarter of squares business. grow -- itntinue to does continue to grow. -- direct depositing stimulus checks onto the cash card or cash app. growth and it won't overcome the other side, which is trending down about 40% in april. just for comparison, the said mastercard numbers across the country are down like 20 or 40% because of the concentration and things like restaurants or services.

but assuming that is more of a temporary pressure, over the longer-term, growth in cash app is fantastic to see. we will still expect a dip in the near term for square, but strength coming out of this maybe later this year or into 2021. >> the other side of the business does focus on those small businesses. reports on these companies that were actually trying to extend loans and help the small businesses get loans. wondering, square and paypal, they have engendered a pretty tremendous amount of loyalty from the small businesses. when we get to the other side of this crisis, types of long-term regardsight occur with

to the relationships those businesses have? you are right. both paypal and square are doing a fantastic job of supporting this. they both specialize in brick-and-mortar and are, as you highlighted, really supporting that and trying to facilitate loan extension and some of the stimulus checks and waving a lot of fees. we should expect to see -- clearly, this is been a call to action for businesses. they need to shift to digital payment. they need online ordering. they need a mobile app.

and secularly, on the side of the consumers, consumers don't want to touch cash anymore consumers are shifting their behavior to learn how to do more of their digital banking. a lot of those broader, secular trends prepayments will likely persist even though they will thely be overshadowed by broader, macroeconomic slowdowns. we are pulling forward our .xpectations by 1-2 years scarlet: great breakdown. thank you so much. >> president trump has said he briefly put on a facemask during a tour of the honeywell international mask factory on

tuesday out of sight of cameras until the company leader told him he did not need it. the president declined to wear a mask during a tour of the plant despite signs at the facility reminding visitors they should wear their face coverings. trump told reporters that he wore a mask for being told he did not need it. mike pompeo is ratcheting up his criticism of the coronavirus pandemic. in a briefing, he accused china of covering up the origins of the virus. of the claimsoff of quote enormous evidence that the virus escaped from a laboratory there. arein the u.k., officials likely to begin easing the coronavirus lockdown. force johnson said he will unveil specifics on sunday and has set a new target of virus tests i may 31.

the cry minister is under pressure to get the economy moving again under criticism he was up slow to react -- he was slow to react to the crisis. there is the highest -- they have the highest virus death toll in europe. systemlic -- the paris will enforce thousands of police officers to enforce rules on social distancing as france eases measures. capital has also increased its clinic budget by 70%. the biggest unknown for the commuter network is just how many people will come out next workplaces,hools, and stores start to reopen. global news, 24 hours a day on air, on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg.

♪

>> that's why i think there's that developing between this level. what we need to see is a trigger to say we're correcting and we're going to start the testing phase, if you will. 2700 needs to break on the s&p 500. >> we had a guest talking to us about that level. so it looks like there may be some possibility of moving back down into the range.

thank you. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> welcome back. you are watching what did you miss. joining us is joe, of course normally our co-host here. he's sheltering in place right now, joining us on the phone. the been an interesting day. we've been having some very intense debates about the difference between caribou and who is the best pellen to instructor out there. but the real debate has been over these tail risk hedges and the payoffs that they've made and whether the payoffs were worth the cost itself to make. >> right. so you think, ok, we have experienced this extraordinary volatility, especially in the month of march. and some of these tail risk funds, these funds that hedge against such an event just did

incredibly well. universe is a well-known one. it returned 3600%. this has been reported. the question is, even with a 3600% return in a single month, is it worth it? and the reason that that's even worth asking is because in order to be positioned for such a return, you have to always be eating the beef, so to speak. because you have to constantly be buying hedges and hedges expire. you can't just buy a hedge and sit on it and expect it to return that much in a single month. and a new paper out from a.q.r. says, sure, you get this huge return, but when you look at the cost of having bought the hedges month after month or whatever it is, at least on really actually over time make up for the cost of owning them. so even a tail risk hedge, even

a tail risk fund that returns 3600% maybe is not worth it. >> maybe it's not worth it. of course a.q.r. saying this, gets back to its main and core proposition which is, quantitative styles, including trend following and risk parity do best over the long-term. is really, i mean, it's talking its book, that's what it does. it's hard core factors all the way. so it has skin in the game and makes sense why it would make -- it would be making this conclusion. >> yeah. no. absolutely. everyone, of course, is going to be somewhat motivated. but it's a good reminder that a lot of investment strategies, we look at them in a line. we see a line going up and down. but sometimes we forget the cost to hold on to those. and that includes other things. like even think about something like oil. right? oil, you look at a line that goes up and down. but it's never factoring in the cost of storing oil during that

time. it's a very similar concept even with something that seems strictly financial. different assets, different investments. they look like a line but they've cost -- [indiscernible] -- >> we have to leave it there. this is bloomberg. ♪ erg. ♪

>> welcome to "bloomberg technology." currently sheltering in place in san francisco. tech buoying the markets yet again as the economic fallout continues. this as a new survey predicts that more than half of small businesses will close as a result of the covid-19 pandemic and that the unemployment rate in new york city, for example, will triple. this as california reports its biggest daily jump in new infections, as well as