tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg May 8, 2020 1:00am-2:00am EDT
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job losses. the consensus for the unemployment rate is a sharp rise to 16%, the highest since the great depression. u.s. fatalities from the coronavirus talked 26,000 -- 75,000. the u.k. and france prepare for easing measures next week. a positive u.s.-china trade talk call. christine lagarde says the ecb must go beyond normal tools. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." let's get the breaking news in terms of earnings. it isng with siemens, cutting its full-year revenue to moderate drop from a moderate rise. they are saying full-year revenue they are expecting to see a moderate drop. they were seeing a moderate rise. second quarter industrial falls.ses adjusted ebit
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those are the red headlines. in terms of what we are looking at, they see a stronger coronavirus impact in the third quarter. that is interesting for all the people who have been saying earnings would be bottoming in the second quarter. a stronger coronavirus impact in the third quarter. they are pulling their full-year guidance, and they have access to 11.4 billion euros in net liquidity. they are planning to list the unit via a spinoff. overall, what you want to know is siemens has abandoned its full-year sales and earnings forecast. it sees profits sink in all divisions with the industrials theped caused by coronavirus. let's get to ing, first quarter loan-loss provision in focus for
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all the banks comes in at 661 million euros. loan-lossquarter provision lower than expected. interest income at 3.5 billion euros, the estimate 3.6. that comes in a little better than expected. big tex profit at 1.0 2 billion euros down 35% year on year. those are the main numbers coming in from ing. we are waiting for an announcement to come at some point for the new ceo. coming up later in the program, we will bring you an interview with tanate phutrakul, cfo, ing bank. getting to the macro picture, unimaginable record-breaking, heartbreaking. those are the adjectives used to
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describe the jobs report we are looking at later today. whatever we expect, it is expected to be historic for job asses in april to wipe out decade of job gains. we got the jobless claims numbers yesterday, a deceleration for another week. the market reacted positively. we see some risk on green on the screen in asia and european a higher open.o the fact that u.s.-china trade negotiators have had a phone call is getting a lift to the risk sentiment. how much longer can risk assets stay decoupled in the real economy? .t is a question others pose in terms of the treasury market, the two-year and five-year yield , extended declines today in the two-year. ,hat has to do with sales
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bigger than expected on the 20 year, and oil heading for a second weekly gain. riskr weakness points to on today. the top negotiators for the china and u.s. see favorable conditions for the bilateral trade deal, and cooperate on the economy and public health. according to china's ministry of commerce, they spoke on the phone to robert lighthizer and treasury secretary steve mnuchin. joining me to discuss the overnight news is annmarie hordern. what was discussed on this call? : we have a statement from the united states trade representative about both countries pledging to create favorable environments to implement the deal and make sure infrastructure is in place for that. the key and critical part of this statement is that both parties will meet their obligations. they expect to do that in a timely manner in spite of the pandemic.
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the deal calls for china to buy an additional $200 billion of goods and services from the united states over two years. because of the pandemic, china is behind pace. it is crucial for that reason. it was more of a positive tone in rhetoric during washington and beijing compared what we have seen for the paschi weeks from the trump administration, on china about not warning enough countries about the severity of the pandemic, and a repercussion for the pandemic management would be more tariffs. the market certainly thinks it is positive news as well. meanwhile white house has blocked cdc guidance over the reopening of the economy. why? administration officials talking about the cdc guidelines were too prescriptive, saying it did not
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take into account if your business was in new york city or in montana depending on the severity of the pandemic. for context, a version was posted online, and it talk about instruction for businesses and places of worship, how do clean and maintain social distance, talking about summer camps for children, making sure groups of , making interact safely sure you are checking for symptoms, and maintaining social distance. this may be controversy all because the cdc top priority is to protect americans from outbreaks and pandemics. at times it has been sidelined coronavirus response. it comes as the united states at 20,000 cases a day. nejra: thank you so much for joining us. as covid-19 upends global
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markets, we will hear from industry executives on a coronavirus special, "crude in crisis." let's get to the first word news. the number of americans filing for unemployment benefits has top 3 million for a seventh straight week, and there is little relief in sight. it brings the seven-week total to over 33 million, and points to unprecedented job losses in the payrolls report later today. crisis innprecedented peacetime, that is what we are living to according to christine lagarde. she says policymakers will do whatever it takes to help the economy. she spoke on a webinar. >> we have to go beyond the normal and conventional tools to use things that are of an exceptional nature. they have to be designed and calibrated, and with the
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appropriate level of deviation and room to maneuver in order to deliver on that mandate. trade is pricing in the possibility the federal reserve will cut its policy rate below zero. the rally extended for prices next year surging over 100, the level that marks the boundary to negative interest rates. chairman powell has pushed back against the idea of negative rates. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. coming up, bracing for the jobs report. we look ahead to employment data out of the united states after initial jobless claims came in above 3 million for a seventh straight week. this is bloomberg. ♪
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nejra: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." in london.cehic u.s. and european futures getting a lift on the u.s.-china news flow, even though as we look ahead to what is pegged to be an unimaginable jobs report. you are seeing a weaker dollar across the board. oil heading for a second weekly gain. on that jobs report, applications for unemployment benefits talked 3 million for a seventh straight week, that takes the total during the pandemic to more than 33 million jobless claims. this comes ahead of april jobs report that is expected to show a shattering record-breaking loss of jobs equipment to the
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last nine u.s. recessions combined. more damage to the u.s. economy from the pandemic, the treasury yield has fallen to record lows. it was led by money market rates which began to price in a negative policy rate from the federal reserve early next year. for reaction to that, we will .alk to larry kudlow do not miss that interview after 2:30 p.m. london time. san francisco federal reserve mary daly spoke in an exclusive interview. she addressed why investors are pricing in a negative rate. company inry other the united states and globally, they are feeling a lot of pain because we have had to shelter in place. they want to do the right thing but they are feeling the pain. when thinking about getting past this, they are doing everything to get their finances in order
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and take advantage of the programs available from congress or the fed to ensure they can get past this and be ready to reopen safely. no one i talked to is looking at a v-shaped recovery. they think it will be gradual and it will take time to build confidence for workers and consumers as they reengage in economic activity. they are more optimistic than you might think. they are ready to reopen and reengage. >> i know you want the paycheck protection program to help, but is there evidence it is doing that? >> the paycheck protection program is about keeping workers they have, and when the economy reopens, we expect those workers .o come back and perform work most of the country remains and shelter in place so we are providing support to businesses and employees with unemployment insurance so we can get through this. >> the main street programs are
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not up and running, is there a chance that will get started too late to be of help. >> the main street program, one of the thing with all the fed abilities is there have been announcement effects, when we say we will have a facility that markets start to function better -- and we are seeing that across the board in the areas where there were dislocations -- so, no i do not think it will be too late to be effective. the lending is so important for american businesses and households. >> i do not want to get into the output business, but you were negative about the idea of any growth this year. not see any expansion until 2021, is that your view? >> my view is that 2020 as a whole -- let's move out of orderly math -- 2020 as a whole will be a negative year. we will see a positive year in
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2021, that is as good is forecasting can get. forecasting is always a tough business, but it is tough now because it is dependent on the evolution of the virus and what actions we have to take to constrain it. >> the markets are seeing things differently. i wonder what you think of that, and the idea that a short while ago the fed funds futures market priced in negative interest rates starting in january. that is not a policy procedure you are interested in, but what do you think of the way investors are looking at it? >> i think investors are looking at it as the coronavirus is with us until we get a vaccine, or a nice way to control it, and they see that as distant, then they price that in. that is what we are all dealing with. i am evidence-based optimists, and evidence is we came in with
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strong economic momentum, one of the strongest economies in our lifetime, and businesses are fundamentally entrepreneurial, and we are seeing them think about how to reengage while we live with the coronavirus until we get a vaccine for some mediation program. i have a little more optimism. >> municipal finances are in tatters around the country. what are you hearing from cities and states in your district? >> cities and states in my district are in trouble, they are struggling and trying to do what we are all trying to do, where can we cut costs when revenue goes down? they are facing tremendous declines in revenues, and where can we keep essential services, and what cuts can we make? are workingand we actively with our states and localities about the best way to make these difficult choices so we can get to the other side of the coronavirus well-positioned
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to go forward. nejra: that was san francisco fed president, mary daly. joining us for the hour is wouter sturkenboom, chief investment strategist emea & apac, norther trust asset management. decimated u.s. jobs market and the fed a negative rate territory, due to your strategy that until now has favored u.s. equities and high-yield? wouter: so far, we are looking at the current economic data as being a revelation game of how deep this recession will be. we think markets are looking through that, and much more focused on what trajectory they will come hopefully late this year or early in 2021. even though the numbers we will see today will be shattering,
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they will be something we have never seen before and will hopefully never see again in our lifetimes, we think markets will look through them. if we look at the health trends, another part of the equation when we review our positioning and markets -- and we are a little bit worried the health trends are moving in the wrong direction, especially in the u.s. but also in europe the risk of the virus spreading further and lasting longer has increased, and we are taking that into consideration with respect or positioning and thinking and reviewing about taking risk off the table. sense, yout, makes are reviewing whether to take risk off the table. what would be the trigger for you to actually do that, and how would you express it in the portfolio? wouter: one of the triggers has been the rally we have seen. we had a good run and a moderate
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position during that run. we take intohing consideration. the second part is focused on how the health trends are developing relative to what was predicted earlier. it is particularly clear in the u.s. that those health trends outside of new york have been coming through in a worse outcome than previously expected. the death rate in particular, the expected death rate has been ramped up, and we take that seriously. we think that ties into the risk that hopefully will not occur, a second wave of infections later this year. those of the main components to take risk off the table essentially. nejra: wouter sturkenboom, chief investment strategist emea & apac, norther trust asset management, stays with us for the hour. coming up, our interview with tanate phutrakul, cfo, ing bank. do not miss it.
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nejra: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." in london.cehic ing came out with numbers, low loss provisions at 661 million .uros, lower than the estimate that is the main thing we are looking at, as well as the first quarter numbers. that's get to the cfo of ing. tanate phutrakul joins us. let's begin with the first quarter low loss provisions. we have that number. can you give us an outlook in terms of a figure of the low loss provisions for the full year of 2020? tanate: thank you very much, and
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good morning. i think the first thing i wanted to say is it has been a busy and challenging quarter in q1. our focus has been on the resilience of our operation, making sure our employees are working frome home. making sure our 39 million customers are well serviced, for example during the course of the first quarter we provided 100,000 retail customers with payment holidays to help them get through this difficult time. he provided 5.9 billion euros in funding of liquidity to our corporate segments. this quarter we have seen an increase in our risk cost, not so much in the underlying risk cost of loans that have gone bad. more because of the bearish outlook on the expected loss that we have added additional provisions during this quarter.
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in terms of our outlook for the sorry -- i year, -- think it is uncharted territory. we will have to look at a number of scenarios, whether it is a recovery,r u-shaped then we take our assessment so we will not provide a full-year guidance at this time. nejra: when might you provide the full-year guidance on low loss provisions? tanate: we provide at the end of every quarter our best assessments of what is coming. nowppose in a way you see economic data is coming out for major markets during the course of may. we will take that into assessment and provide at the end of q2 what the impact, not only of the reduction in gdp, but the impact of releasing the
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lockdown and government aid to various different industries. we take it quarter by quarter. progressiveg's dividend policy injecting at all? announcedat we have at the end of march is the fact we have put our dividend policy in suspense. we do not have a dividend policy per se. we will do is look and see the impact of the current crisis, look at our earning capabilities, then we will come back to the market at the end of q3. the beginning of october, and provide further insight on capital outlook and our dividend going forward. talked about measures you have been taking for customers during this crisis. i wonder what kind of financial measures you are taking to keep the bank afloat, are you reducing bonuses?
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are you pulling any credit lines? anything else? tanate: yes, what i think we want to make sure going into this particular crisis is to make sure we have resilience. resilience in terms of capital ratio, you mentioned already our capital ratio at 14% has a cushion of 3.5% over a minimum regulatory requirement. if you look at the details about the balance sheet, the level of liquidity we have is actually quite robust. the fact that we have one of the lowest nonperforming ratios inng european banks, we are good standing going into this situation, and it is not our intention to hold back on loans, but provide additional liquidity to our customer base. interesting. meanwhile, you have a large exposure to oil and gas. we have seen big moves in the oil price.
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what actions are you taking in that area of the bank? tanate: we are there to basically support our oil and gas clients as well, and i think we have made sure we do scenarios on different oil prices to assess how much potential credit impairment there potentially will be, and during we have decided to take 41 million euros provision for that portfolio. nejra: tanate phutrakul, cfo, ing bank, we appreciate your time. thank you so much. this is bloomberg. ♪
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today's nonfarm payroll report is expected to see 22 million job losses. the highest since the great depression. u.s. the tallies from the coronavirus top 75,000. a report says the white house blocked the cdc guidelines. the u.k. and france expect to ease measures next week. a positive china-u.s. trade call -- lagarde says the ecb must go beyond normal tools. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: up to a jobsuild report that can see losses in april wiped out a decade of job gains, record-breaking, heartbreaking, unimaginable are the words used to describe the nonfarm payrolls report today. jobless claims north of 3 million yesterday, but risk assets continue to rally. as well.at today u.s. and european futures are
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higher as well. some of that might have to do with the call between the u.s. and china trade negotiators. the 10 year yield is studied. the two year yield is steady after hitting a five year yield yesterday, triggered by fed on the pricing in a negative policy rate by early 2021. the bond market telling a different story to the equity market. the weaker dollar talks of risk on today as does a oil price. u.s. the tallies from the coronavirus top 75,000 as top negotiators for china and the u.s. pledged cooperation on the bilateral trade deal. as well as on the economy and public health. , chiefsturkenboom investment strategist emea & apac, norther trust asset management is still with us. we see a rally in risk assets overnight based on the call between the u.s. and china trade negotiators. is this something that investors
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are paying attention to right now, or is it more than a distraction as everybody is focused on the outlook for coronavirus and the impact of that on risk assets? i do not think it is a distraction. it is important for investors. they have come to the realization as we did already a while ago that the u.s.-china relationship is fraught and difficult, and the coronavirus episode could easily accelerate the tensions to levels never seen before. getting a sign from this trade call that that may not be happening in the short term, the relationship might not be worsening as much as feared, is a good sign for investors and important to them. probably short-lived, but they will take it as long as they can get it. nejra: if we continue to talk about the virus voucher, earlier
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you were saying you are thinking based on your outlook, considering taking some risk off the table. does that mean you would be looking in any way to add to treasury exposure anywhere along the curve? i was talking about the fact inders are pricing -- that drag the two-year and five-year to record lows, and wall street making recommendations for curve steepening on the longer end to the bond sales of longer dated treasuries? wouter: let me start with the negative rate priced in by the fed future market. that is something we have been discussing internally, and we think it is relatively unlikely for the fed to go down that route unless we get a substantial second wave of ourctions, which is not base case. we hope that scenario will not come to pass and the fed can manage the situation with his current policy maybe adding here
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and there but not going to the negative interest-rate side. we are indeed when it comes to if we go ahead, we will allocate to investment grade bonds for corporate and government which includes treasuries. we would allocate to that asset class as a de-risking exercise. the actual positioning along the curve, we would probably take a relatively -- take a view across the curve, and then decide if we want to be on the longer end or the short end. at thesome steepening longer -- or maybe not as much as the market, so we want to take advantage of that. nejra: in terms of risk assets, we have talked about the fact you prefer u.s. equities and a high-yield in the u.s. to investment grade. you could make changes in the investment grade space both government and corporate based
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on what the fed might do. in terms of high-yield and u.s. equities, how might that allocation change if you were to take risk off the table? where would you take the money out of first, equities or high-yield? wouter: both actually. we would take a fairly straightforward approach, we would take money out of both of those asset classes and reallocate. they are biggest overweight, it would make sense to trim those, that is where most of the risk is coming from. ,hose would be prime candidates not one favored over the other. across the board cuts to those weights. and still keeping are overweight in place, but trimming them down a bit. nejra: we will talk more about europe because what we have had, we spoke to christine lagarde yesterday, francine lacqua spoke to christine lagarde. let's hear a little bit from
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that. central banks, ecb are driven by their mandate. they have the privilege of being independent institutions , for myself, the european parliament which i report back, and are accountable to. i go every three months to tell about our action in tools and how we measure them and assess them. driven,re also mandate and mandate dictates that we do whatever is necessary, and whatever is needed in order to actually deliver on our purpose, which will be a factor of circumstances. to give you an example, we are currently going through exceptional circumstances. the global economy and the euro
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active, isve to be facing this unprecedented shock that we could not have imagined. in that case you clearly have to go beyond the normal and conventional tools to use things of in exceptional nature -- you think of an exceptional nature, and have to be designed and calibrated with the appropriate level of deviation and room to maneuver in order to deliver on that mandate, whether it is to avoid the tightening and financing condition, or to make sure that monetary policy is transmitted across all jurisdictions in the euro area. that is what we need to do, and we are actually doing it, and we will continue doing so, because that is what drives our action. francine: what is on top of your worry list as a central banker? >> it might surprise you, but i fear two w's.
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w number one is war. that would be the most aggravating factor we could face. is the secondw wave, if we ever have a second wave. when we look at analogies like the spanish flu, unnecessarily called spanish for that matter, the second wave was worse than the first. those are the things i have on my mind. if i look at the economic consequences of all that, clearly without those w's that are my fears, i think we have the most unprecedented economy crisis we have seen in peacetime . i have said that before. the damage on economies around is really causing damages to potential output to
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families, to jobs, to the capacity to bounce back, and we simply have no real good sense of how badly economies are affected. we are proceeding on the basis of scenarios because we do not know, and it is all going to be out ofr of how we get those lockdown measures, at which pace, at which sequence. and if we do, we do not know or strong thet recovery will be. it will be a factor of the measures taken at this point in time. that is really the situation we have, and in the face of that, we have to take all possible measures and policies to help with maintaining the situation, sustaining it for as long as necessary to whether this horrible shock, -- to weather
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this horrible shock and help families and businesses bounced back and moved to recovery phase. the 4 million people affected around the world and in the euro area is on my mind all the time. those venture beyond borders because i think of all people in the developing world which clearly is taking a big hit and will continue to take a thatit despite the fact health systems are not as solid as in advanced economies. nejra: that was the president of the ecb, christine lagarde. wouter sturkenboom, chief investment strategist emea & apac, norther trust asset management is still with us. a number of money managers are looking at the strategy around on then europe-based german court ruling, raising questions about whatever it takes mandate of the ecb and the implications of that ruling. yourhat ruling changed
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view on european assets at all? wouter: not yet, but it is certainly something of a brain scratcher for us. uncertaintyd of above the ecb policy mandate, and that is unhelpful to begin with. we think maybe the courts in germany is playing for timing. in the optimistic case it is a delaying tactic, but in the negative case they will take the participate in these policies. there are all sorts of questions about supremacy of the bank. we are figuring it out to be has raised at cloud of uncertainty, and that is unhelpful. nejra: wouter sturkenboom, chief investment strategist emea & apac, norther trust asset management stays with us. we will talk more about the euro, and the dollar. we asked a host of newsmakers on their take on reopening economies.
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>> we are all going to be permanently scarred by having lived through this pandemic. >> this is my first pandemic, i do not know what i am doing. i am trying to figure this out as i go. qantas in 2021 and 2022 will be very different from 2019. years ford take two traffic to return. >> it will take a while.
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visibility, and what will come back first is domestic businesses. open and reopen over 90% of our starbucks stores by early june. >> the fact these places maybe "necessarily mean they will be doing this. -- be doing business. investors andere ceos discussing the challenges of reopening amid the pandemic. wouter sturkenboom, chief investment strategist emea & apac, norther trust asset management is still with us. i feel the salesforce ceo summed we arealking about figuring this out as we go. that seems to be one of the takeaways coming through in the earnings season we have had. in that environment, what is the mindset of investors you speak to? morgan stanley yesterday said
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the term cash on the sidelines has taken on new meaning at the moment. certainly has, especially when it comes to corporate balance sheets and the risk of running out of liquidity, therefore the liquidity crisis is turning into a solvency crisis. that is the part that most investors are focused on. the end of 2020, the start of 2021, when will we see the shakeout of the solvency side of the pandemic fallout? that is going to be something investors are worried about. they want to see recovery in earnings in 2021 and viable businesses, but unfortunately they know not everybody will qualify for those markers, and that is the focus for them. nejra: when you speak to clients, are they wanting to put money to work at the moment, even with the equity rally we have seen? saying, let's wait this out and see what the risk of a second wave is, and whether
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we can figure out if this will be a v, u, w or something else? wouter: there is trepidation amongst clients. they realize they had a good run , then they look at what is being priced in in terms of growth and earnings for 2021 and beyond. they think that is pretty close to an optimistic outcome, close to know second wave, a robust earnings recovery, and basically a growth environment in 2021 that will make up a big part of the loss in 2020. they worry that outcome might not come true and there will be setbacks, and those will result in lower prices. we are seeing caution creep into the conversation, and risk being taken off the table. nejra: what does this mean for the euro?
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we are talking about the ecb and europe in the previous block, and risks surrounding europe. there are many we could name that point to a lower euro, analysts are calling for a higher euro by year end. you look at the other side of the trade, the dollar, and as long as risk persists and there is feeling of risk off, you will see the stronger dollar. balance those elements for me and tell me where you see the euro going from here. wouter: that is a good and hard question to answer. i think the euro will be more or less treading water. if you look from a valuation perspective it is, cheaper side of things, the from up macro fundamental perspective and uncertainties surrounding negotiations for the fiscal recovery, and a monetary ecb policy from the court ruling, then you understand there are reasons why the euro is cheap, and on top of that it is worse
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than what we are seeing in the u.s. maneuveringm for around that because the u.s. will get hit hard, and it looks less than the eurozone, but those are the balancing factors that markets are playing with year. treading water is where i am at, and taking thewo easy way out. still, i am not willing to make a big call in either direction on the euro from the starting point. nejra: i think a lot of people are with you there. thank you for joining us, wouter sturkenboom, chief investment strategist emea & apac, norther trust asset management. great to have you with us on the show. considering taking risk off the table, risk on today. we had a phone call between the u.s. and chinese trade
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negotiators that is getting liquidy to u.s. futures. the two-year and five-year that hit record lows yesterday with fed funds futures started to price in a negative fed rate in 2021. a higher oil price and oil a second weekly gain. coming up, all the job losses dating back to the second administration of dwight eisenhower compensated into a single month, that is the magnitude of what is expected in report.jobs it is going to be painful. this is bloomberg. ♪
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22ay's jobs report slashed million jobs in april, a decade of job gains wiped out in a single month as the country shuts down to control the pandemic. joining me is dani burger. the worst news to describe this, devastating, record-breaking, unimaginable, heartbreaking. we are focused on the headline number, but what should we be looking for below the surface of this jobs report? are likely to confirm all those awful adjectives, but the depth of pain and in what segments this is hitting the population is what we are looking for in this more comprehensive report. 27 times the worst of the unemployment we saw during the financial crisis. it will be interesting to see who is hardest hit. we are likely to see those with lower wages who have seen the biggest extent of layoffs. these figures help us determine
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how long the economic pain is likely to continue. one of the figures that will help us is temporary workers who have been hit. last month we saw 77% of unemployment was due to temporary furloughed workers, that is a positive number because when the caps are turned act on, they can get easily into the workforce. if the temporary layoffs become permanent it means a longer extension to recover. another important bigger, underemployment. there are people who cannot find jobs, but what about the people who have stopped looking? if that grows, not only is unemployment graham, but there is despair and negative sentiment around the jobs market. shows job rp earlier losses have been broad-based. we will see if that is confirmed
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in nonfarm payrolls. we saw equity markets shrugged off the jobless claims. the bond market is telling a different story. dani: the stock markets, there is some legacy behind wall street getting more support. the stock market being better aided, if you look at the bailout in the financial crisis. there are signs in the bond market there is a reaction with investors for the first time pricing in subzero rates in the u.s. it might be a technical blip. we saw a schedule of refunding, but the movement occurred during unemployment figures we were getting. fed traders be saying the will have to act more to support the economy, or traders could he looking at the payrolls figures and saying we need to hedge against disinflation. nejra: dani burger, thank you.
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anna: good morning. welcome to bloomberg markets, european anna edwards live in london. let's get to your headlines. playing ball -- china and the u.s. agreed to cooperate and implement in their trade deal, overte a blame game coronavirus. asian stocks rise. damage assessment -- economists expected payro
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