tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg May 12, 2020 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT
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degree of a pullback. say or whetherto this is a broader assessment here. most of theng, but states are middle america. the only represent about one third of the u.s. economy. you need states like new york, california, to fully open up to get more impetus for that recovery. we are much down 2% across the board. 23,764.jones at the nasdaq composite down about 2% on the day. actually erased all of its losses for the year a couple of days ago. scarlet: when you look at wei
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go, it is the only index that is higher for the year. let's bring back our investment strategist at allie on global advisors. something romaine mentioned, the low volume. they, down about 14% versus average. in may and gosell away. how much can we rely on these doesnal trends to work, or that go out the window because we are in unprecedented times? >> coincidentally, we are at a point where markets are at a bit of a crossroads here. we are just beginning this reopening process. very much the coast of the country, where the high economic stillnancial hubs are, largely closed.
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there is a lot of uncertainty on what lies on the others of this process. i think the market move does put us at a point where we may be priced to a very positive or at least the baseline stable scenario. you is interesting, and probably noticed this as well, but the dichotomy in the market from a sector by sector perspective is striking. financials, energy, industrials. these are sectors you would expect to start moving if the market does indeed believe in the narrative of the reopening and the stabilization. we started to see energy move a little bit last month despite oil prices collapsing, which could be a good sign. perhaps they were oversold. is lessmind, energy than 3% of the s&p overall.
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romaine: that is a great point. there has been a big sort of fracture here in terms of the sector performance. i want to get your thoughts, one thing that sort of crept into this market last week and yesterday was a little bit of concerned about the u.s.-chinese relationship and whether the rhetoric could read. i am wondering, how do you think the market is going to react to that if the president decides to pursue a tougher stance and we start to see a little bit of a break down between these countries? think it is not the right time to add a tariff war. generally speaking, last week, the u.s. and chinese negotiating team did have a discussion
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around the status of phase one. they did confirm the deal would remain on track. president trump remains disappointed with the chinese handling of the pandemic. this could be a theme that we continue to hear as we had more and more into election season. this message does play well with different population, perhaps part of his base as well. scarlet: house democrats are hard at work to put together a new stimulus bill. they have unveiled this new $2 trillion bill which probably has little hope of getting to president trump's desk. but what do you think the market is pricing in when it comes to around fade? -- another round of eight -- another round of aid? when it comes to it, you would
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probably need another market meltdown to get there. >> i will say that the amount of durings we have received this crisis has been unprecedented. of gdpnts to about 40% already. certainly from a fed and monetary perspective, they have been speedy, but quite innovative in their solutions. intoare really putting risk assets, and that has been reflected both in credit spreads is --al side, there spreads and markets. from a fiscal side, something has to be done to support state and local governments, which have clearly been very hit on a revenue perspective.
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the other one we are watching for is the infrastructure package. byt has been talked about both sides of the aisle as well. that could be a way to not only get people back to work but support some of the industrial companies that we were talking about earlier. of course, president trump is consistently talking about a payroll tax cut and i think that is not well received as of now either. clearly, like we saw with the cares act, both sides of the aisle have to come together. perhaps that tends to happen more went there is urgency, there is more of a crisis. willne: it obviously require a lot of cooperation among a lot of people in washington who do not normally cooperate. i want to get your thoughts on
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some of the moves we have seen in the credit market. i am wondering, as you sort of cap out your strategy and outlook, how much importance are you putting on the current yield ?nvironment >> it is a great point. part of the reason investors get pushed out of the risk spectrum, rates are low, but when the 10 year yield is close to 65 basis points and much of the world is near zero or negative, i think, longer-term, our view remains that u.s. treasury yields are too low here. we think with potential growth dothe u.s. at 1.5%-2%, we see yields ultimately coming back to that level. in the near term, we are
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probably looking at sub-1% environment. we don't see the fed actively taking rates to negative. they have been pretty clear. they have also seen the evidence of what has happened in europe, and japan. low negative rates have not really supported growth or inflation. it could happen in the short end, that the market itself takes the rates negative, fed itself fund rates probably will not have, as we get to this more steady-state 21, even, we are looking at rates normalizing somewhat. scarlet: thank you so much. that does it for "the closing bell." "what'd you miss?" is next, where we will dig into the
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the nasdaq. the nasdaq cutting your today losses by just one third of 1% as dr. fauci warned an early reopening of the economy may lead to setbacks and perhaps a second wave of infections. of course, washington is where the action is. the federal reserve officially began its foray into credit markets, lodging purchases of etf's as part of the coronavirus lending program. joining us, bloomberg economics senior economist. you could argue that this program was so effective that the fed did not even have to buy anything until today. now that it has begun this program, give us some numbers to put it into context. >> it has been seven weeks
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between the announcement of the program and the day when they started to make these purchases. i think all the action has already happened in the market reaction. that is exactly what the fed wanted to achieve. andexecutive vice president he had of the markets group from the new york fed, he spoke recently on one of the webinars. usage isly said that not the right metric for success. it is about providing a backstop to boost confidence in the market. that is exactly what has happened. after the fed announced its program. the purchases themselves don't really matter that much.
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these twosly, programs are aimed to provide liquidity to the corporate credit orchids. toy are both levered like 10 one, so the fed can purchase up billion of these securities. that will substantially increase balance of these sheets. the market is working much more moberly -- much more mobily. market: the equities took a move lower on some comments from dr. fauci about the potential slowness in the reopening of our economy. that,is potential concern if out of those jobs lost, how
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many folks from those jobs can be reestablished once we get past the health crisis here? byena: what really took us such big surprise last friday when we saw this huge number in terms of job losses is why the markets are reacting so optimistically. obviously, there are challenges of unlocking the economy. it will not just be overnight. it will be ups and downs. it will not be a v-shaped recovery. it will take time. and it will depend on the nature of the jobs. affected were most during the pandemic, they will be open less. look at what new york governor andrew cuomo laid out last week. he said that those restaurants
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and entertainment businesses will only open up last. so, where will all these people go and look for jobs? it is just a matter of the fact right now that some industries are hiring. so a lot of these jobs that were most hardly hit during the pandemic, leisure and hospitality, they do not require much formal training. these people will probably look up to finding a job in delivery services, retail companies that are still open. there is a lot of shortages of labor in those. we will get some data this friday when the jobs survey will will show some official data on vacancies among different industries. scarlet: so the potential to
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bring them back online and back into their jobs is certainly there. but, you would have to see demand recover first for the companies to commit to that kind of spending, wouldn't you? yelena: absolutely. a lot will depend on how fast personal income growth is recovering. with unemployment rates at such a high level, probably heading even higher than we saw on friday, we will not see much growth in personal income. that means personal spending cannot grow fast, at least as fast as it was before the crisis. that is why we do not anticipate a v-shaped recovery. it will be a prolonged recovery. when we see growth in the third
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and fourth quarter this year, it will not be as strong as we were used to/ -- we were used to. romaine: yelena shulyatyeva, she economicerg's senior -- senior economist. i recommend you check out bloomberg economics because the data and the charts they used to lead out is second to none. next, we will talk about some states deferring eviction. they haveton, d.c., yet to offer cash-strapped landlords relief to do that. that is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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romaine: we have been talking about the covid-19 health crisis and potential economic crisis. now, a lot of folks saying we already have a housing crisis on our hands, and it involves rental properties. our next guest wrote a piece on the bloomberg terminal that really laid out the case of a really the trouble that a lot of in dealingre having with a lot of the relief measures states are laying out for renters. at the federal level, those landlords have got -- of not gotten relief themselves. can you like out the issue of the -- can you lay out the issue
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of the needs of the landlords and renters? >> it is a basic thing. our economy, in many ways, shut down. as a result, unemployment skyrocketed. tenants are unable to pay their rent or their full rent. a lot landlords, most of them small landlords, who depend on this income to pay mortgages, property taxes, maintenance, they are not getting a lot of their income coming in. then they start to get into trouble. pointlandlords at this are not getting any help. scarlet: one thing your story does a really good job of is putting out this misperception that a lot of landlords are big private equity companies that have a lot of cushion.
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is there any group working together on behalf the landlords to lobby for some protection or forbearance? prashant: there is no group, no lobby representing small landlords. a lot of them are like your local neighbor. large landlords that are part of trade groups that money and relief that would go to landlords. it is nothing that the trade -- arehad really supporting currently. highlightsur story
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some of those small landlords. i am curious, during the housing crisis, one of the outgrowths was that we saw a much bigger role amongst wall street in the rental market itself. i am wondering if what we are going through now will lead to an additional acceleration of that trend? prashant: you think about it, you banned evictions, it is likely that a lot of people will not immediately get their jobs back. those bands will be extended. when you banned evictions and you have small landlords who may be do not have the deep pockets to withstand this and no leverage to make tenants pay, a lot of those folks will get into trouble. when they get into trouble but they might sell their property
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at a distressed price. if that happens, the private equity firms might be the likely buyers. and taket jump in advantage of the situation. is what they did last time. scarlet: really interesting story here. again, this is something that really shines a light on a part of the market that people tend to overlook. gettinge, tenants are extensions but the landlords need to make their payments as well. let's turn to your business flash update. uber has made an offer to buy the food delivery startup grubhub. bloomberg has learned that the companies could reach a deal this month. huber shutting down its own food delivery service, uber eats, in seven countries where it has
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proved to be unpopular. hertz is trying to stay out of bankruptcy. expectthat they do not demand to rebound in the next year. regulators will let struggling u.s. airlines stop flying to some cities where there is little demand. that is a change that could result in some locations being served by only one carrier. the the past two months, transportation department has received eight times the normal amount of complaints. that is your business flash update. hard to believe, but there are still people flying around these days. the pictures they are posting on social media are kind of stunning. people are wearing tasks and gloves, but the planes are as crowded as they seemed to be before covid-19.
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romaine: this is about managing expectations. when you look at comments on social media, it is all about the same. they thought they would be like one of 10 people on the plane, be able to spread out and be safe, then it is packed because there are only so many flights out there right now. only a coupleve hundred thousand people flying per day, it still means a backplane. scarlet: in terms of who is flying, it turns out it is a lot of people who are locked someplace because of the lockdown. professionalsical . then, there are people who are flying around to return to work as the economy slowly starts to reopen and they need to be somewhere in person. it is a mixed bag. the extent that you can do the
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♪ scarlet: it is now time with "leadership life" -- "leadership live" with david rubenstein. partly managing a workforce from home, what will the future look like? rubinstein will get a view on all of this with his guest, nasdaq ceo adena friedman. david: thank you very much for joining us. adena: it is great to be here. david: you are in your home at the moment? adena: yes. i am not far from you, in chevy chase.
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adena is a native of my hometown, baltimore, she did her graduate work at the owen school of management at vanderbilt. she graduated from vanderbilt i guess around 1992, 1993, joint nasdaq in 1993 and rose up to be the chief strategy officer when, carlisle,y group, recruited her to be ceo. years. with us for three we went public on nasdaq. be aas back by nasdaq to senior officer and now she is the ceo of the company. the market3.5 years, capitalization is up 60% and the stock price is up 60%.
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,o, i should have bought nasdaq is that right? you the question that is in -- that is on a lot of people's minds. the stock market and nasdaq in particular has been blooming i think, for six days in a row, nasdaq. -- nasdaq was up. yet the economy does not seem to be in great shape. how do you explain the market economybust and the not being in great shape? adena: first, the composition of nasdaq, if you look at the companies that choose to list on nasdaq, we have the companies that are defining the economy of tomorrow. when you look at the companies that are doing well through this
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crisis, they tend to be -- whether they are biotech companies, we have 94% of all biotech companies listed on nasdaq. as well as technology companies. those companies are demonstrating great resilience, which drives the values. i think the second key factor is the fed. the federal reserve in general, if you look at the over the hasnce, i think been muted by action by the fed, making sure that we have easy access to capital and that we can manage through this crisis moment. david: the biggest companies on your exchange are which? adena: we have the top five technology companies in the world listed on nasdaq. also, netflix and others that
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are really important companies, driving a lot of the services that we are getting used to in this crisis. david: people who are not familiar with nasdaq, what does nasdaq stand for? jeopardyat is a question. the national association of securities dealers automated quotations. which means that we were formed the971 as a subsidiary of national association of securities dealers. untiled as a subsidiary 1999, when we separated. nasdaq, aq is just word in and of itself. david: at the time, you did not have a lot of brokers running around on the floor.
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you basically were doing it all electronically. is that correct? adena: our foundation is based on the principle that we don't have to be in the same place to succeed and offer eight robust trading environment. we were the first electronic exchange in the world. in 1971, it was a very relevant -- very revolutionary concept to have a network set of computers to raise and trade capital. now, we are 49 years old. we continue to work very hard to disrupt to make sure we are bringing the best technology into the markets. we provide the technology to 120 other markets around the world. so we have been able to really propagate our model into the world economy. david: for people who don't understand how this works, if
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somebody wants to go public, they can pick the new york stock exchange or they can pick nasdaq. that they pay you or do you pay them? annual fee pay an and we trade securities for them. we also support services for their listings. we generate revenue from the trading. the trading generates an enormous amount of data, which is important for giving transparency in the market to every investor. millions of people now have access to real-time data. key revenue source, our indexes as long as -- as well as our technology business. under covid-19, the theory should be that you should
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be in pretty good shape because you can do everything electronically. did you have to send people home? adena: we were pretty early in making decisions of sending people home. then around the world. we have been working very hard over the years to enable our entire operation to be available to us in a work from home environment. it turned out to be a very smooth transition for our employees into the market because we were able to maintain the operations in a remote environment. david: how many employees do you have? employees in 30 countries around the world it is complicated in that obviously this virus is spreading at different rates in different countries. to how we have managed
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create that work from home environment, and the big challenge is how do we bring people back in the coming weeks and months to make sure we are working to kickstart the economies we are working in. david: i assume you have people that report to you. how do you do that now, by some sort of electronic means? adena: we do a weekly executive call and a biweekly call with about 50 people. omxought a company called in 2008. operator inexchange the northern companies. we actually put video presence stockholm, new york, as well as other cities. we have been a videoconferencing enables company for a long time. that has not changed much.
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what has changed, our senior executive team now meets every day. we meet every morning to talk through the mechanics of managing our employees safety throughout the situation. we also, i have been doing weekly or biweekly all hands .alls our normal cadence, it would have been quarterly. it is a great way to connect with the tema. adena: -- with the team. david: do you think you will need to bring everybody back into the offices? or maybe people are just comfortable working at home? adena: that is a great point. we did a survey of all employees, asking them what is their comfort level to come back .
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we have some employees who are eager to come back but the vast majority want to continue to wait and see how things progress in the cities where they operate. we have the luxury of patients. the last people if they want -- we will ask people if they want to come back for -- come back voluntarily. then will put a whole lot of protocols in place inside the office. it will be voluntarily only for the foreseeable future. david: will you have enough masks, will you take everybody's temperature? adena: we have been working through what we call the day in employee.f the
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where we have the legal authority to be able to take temperatures, we will do that. we also have certain seating arrangements we are setting up inside the offices. i call it physically distant. i am hoping that socially, they will feel part of a community. we will be contemplating when we need to use masks in the office. the kind of thing we are working through to make sure we create the right type of environment in the offices. david: what are you personally doing? you are at home with your husband and your sons, is that ok? adena: yes. my two sons are grown. they have been helping a lot.
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everyone contributes to the needs we have here. it makes it so i can focus on work but at the same time have more balance than i normally have. david: you are a black belt in tae kwon do. are you able to do that online now or how do you stay in shape doing that? of,a: the studio i am part i am impressed about how they have been improving online capability. that is the power of videoconferencing. you can see them, but they can see the students, which is cool. it has been very hard for them. they are one of those small businesses that are incredibly impacted. they still have to pay all of their bills, all of their rent. not every student is going to stick with them through the
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crisis but obviously, loyal students are continuing to take classes. of my --e a microcosm it has enabled me to understand some of the challenging aspects of this virus. let's talk about ipo's. a lot of times, they want to go public. have you taken companies public in this environment? adena: we have fed six ipo's since the beginning of march. what we are able to do, because we are an electronic exchange, we have all of our tools able to be managed in a remote setting. the underwriters can have access to them while they are working from home and our execution officer can manage from his work from home environments. a virtual ipo, market
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open, we have the first trade, and we are able to support our companies throughout that whole experience and give them the visibility they are looking for. because we have our tower in times square, we can run a lot of programming on the tower, enable them to have a great day even though they can't physically be together. talk about china for a moment. the u.s.-china relationship is a little complicated at times. ?re you taking companies public adena: we are accepting listings from china, we always have. somethink that there are challenges that the sec has acknowledged that they are going to address through a roundtable. we do have some very specific
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issues with the way that disclosures are provided from certain emerging markets, including china. the sec is working on that. they have acknowledged they have an issue to work on. we are excited to work with them to find ways to improve that part of the chinese listing experience. activeinue to be an listing exchange for chinese companies including one that went public last week. david: a lot in the business community have been lobbying congress to get some support to help them. have you been lobbying congress on behalf of either your exchange or lenders? in a fortunate position that we don't have to lobby on our behalf. i think the rules that govern exchanges have worked well through this crisis. the equities market and options
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executed quite well. we are working with listed companies to make sure they are getting the support that they need. i am a member of the business roundtable. we are making sure the for small advocates -- sure we for small businesses. been very impressed with the federal government in terms of the fiscal support, as well as the fed. somenk the fed did extraordinary things early on to try to make sure they staved off a deteriorating situation quite successfully. david: you are one of the few women running a major publicly traded company these days. we don't have as many as i think we had years ago, frankly. do you feel any discrimination, or is that in the past?
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you? it still there for adena: i don't experience it at all. first of all, i agree with you, i would love to see more women ceos of major companies. my whole experience has been quite a positive one as a woman in finance. carlisle areq and great environments for women. feel fully part of that community and has been a great experience. david: the biggest challenge you the fortune ofis your companies, they may not be as strong as before, or is it the overall general economy? adena: our business is quite resilient. of course, it would be wonderful if we could have a better environment in terms of being
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able to provide a better environment for companies to go public, doing new things with our technology, developing new markets. lineve had a very active in our technology business to provide exchange to around the world. this crisis, i a lot of exchanges around the world continue to look to modernize their infrastructure. i would say that we prefer a stronger economic environment in general because i think it creates that ecosystem that makes it so that we have general growth drivers in the industry. we have been fortunate in terms of the resiliency of the business we operate. where i have been focusing is advocating on behalf of of other companies, making sure the government understands the challenges the company is
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facing, making sure we give them the support they need, and advocating for practices around how to make it possible for companies to reopen safely. david: when you are advocating on behalf of these companies, do you do it by economic means -- by electronic means these days? video calls and conferencing is the way of the present and probably partially at least the way of the future. david: what is your own view of how the economy in the united states is doing? downu still see it heading quite a bit before it heads back up? adena: we are only two months into this and i don't think we see an easy mechanism to climb out of it until there are medical breakthroughs. we all are much more aware of the virus and what the impact is.
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i think people are much more careful with how they are in erecting with others. as a community, hopefully we will create that sense of responsibility, being physically distant with each other and managing our lives in a more conservative way. i think that will still keep the economy at a slower pace before we can find some medical breakthrough. finding some better treatment so this becomes more vaccineormal flu, or a or some way to make it so people feel confident that they will not get sick. i think that once that breakthrough comes through, that confidence, certainly, people will get back together. we are social beings. we want together, have experiences, go to restaurants. we want to go to concerts and travel the world. i think that once that confidence is back, all of that
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will kick back in. the question, what will the economy look like at the moment? will people have the disposable income to enjoy life again in a significant way? david: do you see, in other countries where you operate, the same kinds of concerns about going back to work? adena: it is a good question, because it is different in different societies. our largest office is in stockholm, sweden. inn i talk to our employees our stockholm office, i would say they are a little bit more relaxed and willing to be in the office. but, there are many of our employees who want to continue to work from home. we want to continue to give them that choice. they want to make sure they are
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managing the virus successfully. you do have a slightly different attitude coming from different parts of the world. david: what message would you give to a ceo who says, what should i be doing to manage my company in this environment? adena: i think the first thing is communication. a quarterly cadence of town halls to weekly and biweekly. having that more informal way to communicate with employees, letting them see that you are as concerned as they are, that you are going through your own challenges, you have confidence in being able to manage through, but you are also a person, it is that compassion and humanity has been what people really creates right now. -- people really crave right now.
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i have appreciated the opportunity to have more communication with them. i think the second thing is there is a really delicate balance that every company is striking between the safety of their employees and the ability to do their work and manage their business. that is a very challenging balance. at the end of the day, our view is that employee safety is first and foremost, and we will find a way to manage through it well also managing the safety of our employees. we are very fortunate that our business is more geared toward a remote environment. but a lot of companies are facing that challenge. that ceo's heartened i have spoken to our extremely focused on employee safety, even when their businesses are completely impacted.
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the last thing is the role in the community. we are seeing right now what i call cooperative capitalism at work. back,ies are giving contributing to their communities, giving away free services, they are buying up food from farmers and giving them to food banks, they are doing things not in their immediate economic interest. i have been really impressed with that. seeing the huge amount of support for the american people. david: what is nasdaq doing in the philanthropic area? sizablee have given donations to three charities.
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one is the world kitchen. i forget how to pronounce it. adena: --david: world central kitchen. adena: yes. the world health organization. and another that helps small businesses with loan terms, getting loans forgiven, to help them through this. we have been doing that, as well as giving our companies free time on our tower. david: what would you say is how this problem has changed your view of the future? more optimistic, less optimistic ? adena: i think it is all about the time horizon. world, what i19 really believe in, we will make our way through this and find that, while the world has
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willed, i think people want to explore the world, experience things in the world. you all havef, do to be in one room. i have called this pandemic the great equalizer internally. is in stockholm, it is 5:00 in the afternoon in new york, i am not going to call them. but other than time, everyone is equal. there are no barriers among no walls, no offices. frankly, the whole idea that i can only work with these people because they are in my office. scarlet: that was nasdaq ceo adena friedman speaking with david rubenstein. this is bloomberg. ♪
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