Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  May 13, 2020 1:00am-2:00am EDT

1:00 am
♪ nejra: good morning from london. this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. these are today's top stories. anthony fauci weighs on market sentiment, warning against reopening tuesday. reward is the worst he's seen. the fed says more fiscal report do support is needed. a speech from jay
1:01 am
powell today. the u.k. begins its low reopening as the business secretary says employers have a duty to keep staff safe. we will get a glimpse at the economic fallout from coronavirus in first-quarter gdp figures. more earnings coming in across the bloomberg. taking a provision in this quarter of 326 million euros. ae market penciled in loan-loss provision of 286 million. over a billion euros in loan losses. nowhere near what you see with the spanish or italian's. there's an operating loss at the bank of 277 million. they penciled in 159.9 million euros of a loss on the quarter. that's the state of play with commerzbank.
1:02 am
we will keep a track on that. we are tracking the losses across the map. what do you have from abm -- abn? nejra: 1.11 billion euro. the estimate was 656.2 million euros. that's a bigger fourth-quarter loan-loss provision and it's the red headline. got,rms of what else we've they say they will reduce their strategy, addressing efficiency and cattle -- capital. it's an update from august. fourth-quarter earnings feels like of -- a lifetime ago. they missed estimates in last time. as was the strategy around the dividends. abn delayed an update on dividends. perhaps we will get something from that later today. nothing i'm seeing in the headlines in terms of 2020 impairments.
1:03 am
they see 2.5 billion euros in impairments for 2020. it is on track for 5.1 billion of cost in 2020. trendcome is expected to towards the lower end of the range. in terms of the first-quarter numbers, they are looking forward to the guidance. the first-quarter loss coming in at 395 million euros. the estimate was 173.5. better than expected loss for the first quarter. a will speak to their cfo little bit later in the program. loads to discuss with him as well as the oil portfolio. they have exposure to that singapore oil trade that has caused trouble at other banks as well. let's get to the markets. lots to discuss today. i don't know what has caught your attention. it's interesting how the risk sentiment turned sour yesterday because of a number of factors including comments from dan druckenmiller.
1:04 am
manus: yeah. he talked about wishful thinking in terms of a v-shaped recovery. i resort back to the kiwis and aussies. the kiwis are getting ready for negative rate. they are preparing the banking system. that goes back to the conversation that we had with steven major. he referred to what the aussie's and kiwis actually do sets the tenor of adjustment for the rest of the g10. it's ironic that the kiwis believe that they can't launch an outright fx war. never underestimate the rut of currency manipulators. nejra: absolutely. when you look at what a move, u.s. equities. anthony fauci talking about reopening to early could prove a setback later on. dan druckenmiller saying, a v-shaped recovery in the u.s. is
1:05 am
fantasy. career, orrst in his in a long time. the s&p 500 dropped 2%. volatility striking. futures on the front foot in the u.s. right now. green on the screen in asia. european futures pointing to a down day. a mixed picture in equities. risk sentiment might be coming back. 10 year treasury yield down a basis point. zealand, thet new fed might be pushing back on negative rates. we got a quartet of fed speakers warning on the economy. new zealand might be contemplating negative rates. that hit the kiwi as well is what they did on qe. oil looking a little bit soft. brent crude down 1.4%. fauci has warned against reopening the economy too soon, saying the communities doing so risk new coronavirus at
1:06 am
breaks. >> there's a real risk that you will trigger an outbreak. you might not be able to control it. back, not onlyou leading to some suffering and death that could be avoided, but could even set you back on the road to economic recovery. you can always turn the clock back rather than go forward. discuss ising us to annmarie hordern in new york. we were talking about a 3.5 hours senate hearing. what did anthony fauci say? what was the response? annmarie: good morning. it was a very long hearing. you can take the tone of the time. most of the experts were phoning in or conferencing and from their homes. it was a different tone from trump's own top health expert, warning about a future outbreak. warning about making sure you
1:07 am
open the economy cautiously. the evening before, president trump claimed we had prevailed. fauci's message, he doesn't want communities to ignore these federal guidelines for safely reopening. he says they could be in danger of new outbreaks. there's a real risk that you will trigger an outbreak that you might not be able to control. as of last week, our data shows that 20 states in the u.s. have lifted restrictions that don't meet the white house guidelines to reopen. they are moving ahead anyway. said, we are not out of the woods yet. when you ask about the response from some of the centers, it was really political. there's one moment that stuck with me. dr. anthony fauci responded to something ron paul of kentucky said. it got testy. paul was concerned about schools and children not having another gear. he said fauci should not be the
1:08 am
end all on the issue. fauci responded with, we need to be careful, not cavalier. thinking that children are completely immune. he said that he wanted to respond to what paul said about the end i'll issue. got she said, he's offering his best scientific evidence and never made himself out to be the only voice. it is very scientific driven. depending on what senator was asking the questions, you could tell what the politics were involved. manus: absolutely. that question of her criminal nation -- thank you very much. let's get you up to speed with your first word news. an easing of the u.k. stay-at-home orders began today. boris johnson has called the process baby steps. in england, people will be able to spend a limited time outdoors. those who can't work from home are being encouraged to go to their jobs.
1:09 am
the government has extended its furlough until october. the total cost could reach 84 billion pounds. its employees will be able to choose to work from home permanently when the coronavirus outbreak finally receives. has said the company is unlikely to reopen physical offices for september. most can work from wherever they want. twitter employees about 5000 people in 35 offices around the world. $2.8 billion in costs. the initiatives are likely to be part of a three-year plan that will be unveiled later today. excuse me, later in may. to make the reduction, the carmaker is shutting down a production line, cutting marketing, the plan is aimed at turning around the auto giant after what has been a tumultuous
1:10 am
time. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. we're global. nejra: [laughter] coming up, addressing economic damage. we will be watching out for jerome powell's comments in a after a quartet of fed speakers warned on the economy yesterday. this is bloomberg. ♪
1:11 am
1:12 am
manus: this is daybreak europe.
1:13 am
let's have a quick look at these markets. here's the markets. a little bit higher this morning. the aussie's raised $20 billion in the debt market. the kiwis implement negative rates. fauci warned about the risk of .eopening euro stoxx down 1.5%. have a look at the bonds. huge oxen yesterday. -- auction yesterday. things are getting back to normal. i wonder if there's indigestion in the bond market. you have a backstop, haven't you? one line coming through from commerzbank. you talked about the guidance from abm. commerzbank is saying that full-year charges in terms of ,isk impact will be one billion
1:14 am
1.4 billion. context around this quarter. the first quarter was 326 million. that was above the estimate. they are guiding at 1-1.4 for the full year. glasses back on. the u.s. needs more fiscal support to limit the impact of the virus on company bankruptcies. the banking sectors and stability. that's according to fed president and aromatic. the fed chairman jerome powell himself will speak about the possibility of mass bankruptcies and long-lasting unemployment. that's a virtual event at the stevenson institute for economics. it will be moderated by adam flippin himself. propose $3rats trillion virus relief that combines aid to states and local governments with direct cash payments, expanded unemployment insurance, and spending on food stamps. that's the context of what we've
1:15 am
got around the markets. the fx and global macro strategist at akira, great to have you with us. how important is the messaging from jerome powell today that we are not going negative rates? peace --cal is that that peace? >> a truly critical. , thets have been shifted airtime around negative rates has been growing. there are pros and cons, a strong macro case if you think the real interest rate in the u.s. falls in a way that seems great rates to type. it will be very hard to implement. jerome powell is pushed on negative rates, will lean on these practical implications. focus will be on the balance sheet policies. seenything, we will
1:16 am
flexible qe, increase in asset purchases at times when yields start to creep higher. thanwould be more likely negative rates which definitely have negative implications for banks and money market funds in the u.s.. nejra: that's interesting. as you implied that a number of people are saying that the way things are going, zero rates in the u.s. could start to look restrictive by the autumn. if you don't think that negative rates are likely, you outlined the other options, what does that mean for the prospect of dollar weakness? viraj: it is extremely hard at this stage for the fed to weaken the dollar. ratese look at relative in the u.s., they declined around 100 basis points year to date. that's not enough for the dollar to be negative, given the number of other developed countries
1:17 am
either at the zero level bound or with negative interest rate policies already. it's an impossible task for the fed to drive u.s. rates low enough to materially weaken the dollar. if you look at dollar bear cycles and the history of long-term dollar cycles, the dollar has usually held negative carry during large declines over the cycle. at this moment, we are not seeing that. it's very difficult for the dollar to weaken here. the dollar continues to rally during the peak of the crisis, the heat of the crisis, even after the first round of qe. we think that the dollar backdrop is similar to that environment and expect more risks to the upside coming in the coming months. manus: the dollar remains king dollar. what roles over in that context? do you believe the dollar will
1:18 am
remain triumph it? -- triumphant? we think that in the short term, risk is being mispriced across global markets given a myriad of uncertainties that lie ahead in 2020. these include a second covid-19 way. so, u.s. china geopolitical tensions and what that means for the yuan. financial triggered by default, think rep sees. all of this suggests that the dollar against risky currencies like the aussie, the pound which has held relatively well in , those are at risk for another leg lower. especially dollar-yen. we don't think that has topped out yet. we see more risks to the downside for those likes. nejra: interesting stuff. our guest stays with us for the
1:19 am
hour. oil is retreating a little bit today. it rose to a five-week high yesterday. the u.s. government lowered its oil output for the year. anthony fauci gave his warning about reopening america too soon. the energy secretary told bloomberg that prices are starting to stabilize with production coming back in line as the economy picks up. >> we now have 23 states that are opening up. that represents roughly 40% of the gasoline demand in the united states. we are starting to see oil prices stabilize. it's important to note that this increase is good for consumers in the sense that jobs are protected all across the economy. we have seen no dramatic impact on gasoline prices across the country which is very important as well. >> take us behind the scenes if you can. we know that president trump has a good relationship with the crown prince of saudi arabia. was that cut it all?
1:20 am
was it something that the president helped encouraged or arrange? >> he has been engaged in this conversation for the last few weeks. as we've talked about, opec began its conversations around the early march timeframe. saudi arabia, russia got themselves into a dispute over their production numbers. when the saudi's decided to take some actions at the beginning of the pandemic that led to increase production and the reduction in pricing of oil across the world, it impact the u.s. produces very genetically. the president engaged with heads of state in both countries. he has engaged personally with the king of saudi arabia. the point of those conversations is to bring stability to the marketplace and the producing community. that's our goal here. >> is there any risk that the u.s. may come back too far, too fast?
1:21 am
said,rgy transfer lp shale is coming back quite fast. it went down 8%. a quarter of that is back online. are you concerned it might undermine efforts to stabilize the oil price? >> i don't think so. ,hat we will see very shortly eia. they put out a report an hour ago that talks about the economic boom that we are on the verge of seeing. in third and fourth quarters 20 and 21 will be very robust. the production will come back online as this economy begins to take off. if you look at those numbers, presidentee what the has referred to as a v-shaped recovery. it looks very clear in the charts right now. you will see the production tend to match that curve. >> let's talk about another restriction. grid equipmentr
1:22 am
from adversaries. i'm not putting words in your mouth. it raises the larger question about supply chains around the world. that you sawthreat come of the risk that required that restructuring? >> what happened, the president issued an executive order about a week ago now. what we have identified are certain threats within the bulk power electric grid. pieces for the components that make up the electric grid that provides in a norma's of electricity that keep the lights on in our major cities. we've seen that the supply chains have moved from the united states to other parts of the world. in certain cases, to parts of the world that candidly don't have are interested heart. they are adversarial countries. are thebegan to see imposition of certain types of technology into some of these components that make up the grid. transfer, allow data
1:23 am
manipulation of the grid, and that's very concerning for us. if you think about where we are today in this pandemic, if someone who was not aligned with our goals in the united states, who did not have are interested heart, decided to turn the lights off in new york city, hospitals go dark. that's a very concerning situation for us. the president recognized this. we've begun the process of evaluating the grid. we will be working with the industry players at the governmental level as well as the private industry level. coming up, joining the negative rate club. new zealand central bank signals a good take rates below zero as it unleashes more stimulus to cushion the economic fallout of the coronavirus. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪
1:24 am
1:25 am
1:26 am
♪ nejra: this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. the kiwi is extending its drop today after new zealand central bank offered to double its quantitative easing program. it is open to further interest-rate cuts, including taking them negative. that's an attempt to cushion the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic. our guest is still with us. money market pricing for 2021 has shifted to factor in a negative cash rate. how much more vulnerable is the kiwi from here? it is moving on the prospect of negative rates. how much more will it move on the potential reality? viraj: i still think that there's further downside from the kiwi. the rbnz has seen the most of
1:27 am
the g10 countries over the prospect of negative rates. a highk that's likelihood going into the next 6-12 months. most of the other currencies will follow suit. we think there's a risk that in australia, we could see the yield target on the front-end economies as well as -- as the economic downturn continues in a protracted state. both the aussie and kiwi are vulnerable to the short-term against the dollar. rising tensions out there. manus: would you short aussie n asar or aussie one -- yuab keyy trade -- yuab as a trade? manus: thank you very much.
1:28 am
we will speak to the cfo, clifford abraham. they have given their guidance for losses this year. we will dig into the strategy and the exposures. ♪
1:29 am
there are times when our need to connect really matters. to keep customers and employees in the know. to keep business moving. comcast business is prepared for times like these. powered by the nation's largest gig-speed network. to help give you the speed, reliability, and security you need. tools to manage your business from any device, anywhere. and a team of experts - here for you 24/7. we've always believed in the power of working together. that's why, when every connection counts... you can count on us. ♪
1:30 am
♪ manus: good morning from bloomberg's middle east headquarters in dubai. it's daybreak europe. your top stories this morning. anthony fauci ways on market sentiment, warning against reopening tuesday. the equity risk reward is the worst he's ever seen. fiscal mester says more
1:31 am
stimulus is needed while pouring cold water on the idea of negative rates. the you could begins its slow reopening. at thea glimpse follow-up from the coronavirus in q1 gdp numbers. nejra: welcome to daybreak europe. speaking of the follow-up from coronavirus, we are seeing it coming through in these bank earnings. we broke commerzbank at the top of the hour. the first quarter loan-loss provisions come in at 326 million euros, more than the estimates. in terms of the full-year outlook, they said it is difficult to provide a concrete outlook. they see full-year charges of -one billion euros to 1.4 billion euros. this is something we are digesting from commerzbank as we
1:32 am
are looking throughout these bank earnings. nejra: absolutely. we will dig further. if commerzbank is taking that 1-1.4, flick your attention to abn amro. billion impairments for the full year. the fauci morning that stocks down by 2% yesterday. a small recovery this morning. chairman powell will speak today. what will that do to the dollar? let's have a look to the market. s&p 500, the kiwi, the want. our guest host says more pressure to come on the kiwi and the yuan. new zealand doubled qe. dollar you want is pretty stoic. the interest-rate differential remains in favor of the yuan. bonds swallowment up the issuance easily. crude down by 0.5%.
1:33 am
, a v-shaped recovery in the market. let's talk about abn in more detail. they reported their first quarter loss since 2014. that's the shock headline. first quarter loan-loss provisions of 1.1 billion. that's against an estimate of 356 million euros. abn has one of the biggest closures -- exposures to europe and the global oil and gas industry which has been hit hard by the pandemic. the man in charge of the numbers at abn amro is cfo clifford abraham's. great to have you with us. year, 2.5nce for the billion in terms of loan losses. where will the majority of that pain come from? good morning. clifford: yes, good morning. we put 1.1 billion of impairments along our q1 results. we've given in outlook for the full year of 2.5 billion euros.
1:34 am
that reflects possible impairments across her books. close tory largely benevolence. 80% of our business is in the netherlands. we have big business in the small and medium-size enterprise sector. we have a global business, oil and gas as you mentioned, shipping, trading, commodity finance. we are well diversified. it is no particular sector. we are cautious on the outlook, given the circumstances. we think it is helping to give a guide of where we think the year will end up, around who took -- 2.5 billion. , tear one. position our buffer is over capital regulatory environments. we are comfortable going into coat -- the covid situation. nejra: great to have you with us.
1:35 am
could you help us understand more in terms of the covid situation and the guidance you have given unto .5 billion euros in impairments for 2020? how much of that is impairments and write-downs? how much is provisions as a result of covid-19? billion is our outlook for the year. we've only booked 1.1 billion of that in q1. some of that relates to losses we have experienced. we've had two sectional situations in q1. rest of the of the 500 million or so of the upfront provisions in anticipation of losses from covid-19. we are doing the right thing. provisions ahead of what we think will be a difficult outlook. i think that is common across banks.
1:36 am
all banks are concerned about the outlook. it looks like different banks take different approaches. we are confident we are taking the right approach. it is based on our outlook for the netherlands. the netherlands is a buoyant economy. the government has very strong finances. it is well-placed to support businesses and employees during this difficult time. we've taken the view on the economy, we think in the netherlands, the economy will contract this year. it will begin a recovery next year. that is the basis for our outlook of 2.5 billion. the bank remains very strong. we can absorb these dissipated impairments and pull our clients through the challenges ahead. manus: can you or will you answer in regards to your second-biggest creditor? they go $300 billion.
1:37 am
is this part of your provisions? if so, to what expect -- extent? our 1.1: is part of billion. we booked in impairment of around 200 million in connection with trading commodity finance. you'd understand, we want comment on specific names or client situations. it gives you a feel for the scale of our impairments and how we reflected them in our profits for this quarter. to develop that point, what can you tell us about abn amro's oil portfolio? are you accelerating a decrease of your oil loan portfolio? clifford: we have been de-risking or reducing parts of our oil and gas portfolio for some time. particularly in the offshore sector. that has come down quite sharply
1:38 am
over the last two years. gaso still have an oil and aside of about 6 billion euros. that's a little over 1% of our overall exposure. the bank is primarily netherlands-based. it is well diversified. we have oil and gas exposure. we have to risk that. we have taken provisions where relevant. we have a diverse portfolio within that sector. it's important to recognize that some players exposed to today's oil and gas prices, many are hedged. we can ride out dips in share prices, oil prices, and different parts of that sector are more resilient than others. with our oiltable and gas portfolio at this stage. it is a modest part of the overall growth. manus: you got the market this
1:39 am
morning in regards to cost cuts of over 5 billion. you said you are on track to deliver that this year. is it going to be an acceleration as a result of the shock phase we are in? we are trying to evolve on a weekly basis. you say 5 billion. is that the top of what you need to deliver? will you have to accelerate cuts? more context around that for us. clifford: yeah. yeah. we've had cost efficiency programs in place for some time. of 1.5 billion. not cost cuts for this year. that's 5.1 billion. part of that, a cost efficiency program of a total of 1.1 billion. we've delivered 950 million of that. we're making progress on our programs to deliver our 5.1. we have reconfirmed our guidance of 5.1 billion.
1:40 am
we are seeing some cost benefits of the current situation. when the business is in lockdown, you will spend this money on travel, marketing. we are seeing slow down in our ongoing costecute efficiency programs. everybody is at home serving clients. we think these will balance each other out. environmentd, in an where income is under pressure, all banks will need to look ahead to the operation effectiveness. we will be doing that coming out of the covid crisis. i know the fourth quarter feels like a lifetime ago for all of us. when we spoke to you last time, the market was disappointed in terms of the pushing back of giving dividend guidance. we learned that you won't pay an
1:41 am
interim dividend in august as planned. of course, the ecb and other authorities are putting pressure on banks generally described dividends. with all that in mind, what kind of guidance can you give to the market on your dividend? clifford: you are quite right. the ecb is recommending to banks in europe to not pay dividends through october 1 this year. in line with that, we suspended dividends. that's the news you highlighted. we've actually retained capital for all full-year 19 dividend, around 600 million euros. that amount is not in our capital numbers that i referred to earlier. , notand ready to pay that earlier than october 1 this year , depending on where the regulator is at the time but also where the economy and banks are at the time. we've got a strong capital position.
1:42 am
we are looking to maintain the strength of our balance sheet to safeguard our dividend paying capability as we come out of the crisis. manus: one market question. sorry. trying to join the real economy and markets. is there a disconnect? briefly. there's a lot of smart .eople trading markets clearly, things are challenging in the real economy. we saw that on the front page of the economist this week. what markets are taking comfort on his six ordinary actions of the authorities, globally, of central banks, governments, to safeguard people's jobs and businesses. as ever, markets are looking ahead. they are not looking at today's challenges.
1:43 am
they are looking at tomorrow's recovery. that is being underpinned by the sensible but externa reaction you see from the authorities. they are looking ahead at the recovery following the difficulties of today. i think that is the smart thing to do. we are here as the bank with a strong balance sheet to support our clients, whether that is businesses or clients, in order to bridge that gap. that recovery that will come in due course in the next little time. nejra: it's been a great anne frank conversation. inc. you for your time. -- and frank conversation. thank you for your time. president trump top disease expert has told congress that reopening the economy too soon threatens a new spike in coronavirus infection. he's concerned about cities and states relaxing infection curves without meeting guidelines on what it might be safe.
1:44 am
local coronavirus cases have now topped 4.2 million in the u.s.. -- 14 -- gilead sciences says it is licensing its potential treatment to help meet anticipation and demand. korea has reported that virus cases have now reached 190. an easing of the uk's lockdown begins today with boris johnson. people will be able to spend unlimited time outdoors and those who can't work from home are being encouraged to go to their jobs. the government has extended its furlough team until october. the total cost could reach 84 billion pounds. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. the v-shaped up,
1:45 am
recovery is fancy. we have the details. this is bloomberg. ♪
1:46 am
1:47 am
♪ nejra: this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. manus cranny in dubai. risk sentiment took a hit yesterday on anthony fauci's comments but it is edging back up today. european futures deeply in the red. the 10 year yield slipping slightly. look at the kiwi today, plunging. wti dropping from a five-week high. reward calculation for equities is the worst this analyst has seen in his career. conferencering a web tuesday. he says the prospect of a v-shaped recovery in the u.s. is a fantasy. joining us is dani burger.
1:48 am
with 30%ks contrasted gains in u.s. stocks since the march lows. what does he say to justify his bearishness? dani: he says investors who have , they arese stocks operating on a false premise. the premise being that the mass of liquidity injection we have gotten, this stimulus will save the u.s. economy. he says that's not true. it won't help to spur u.s. growth. he calls the programs from the fed and congress just a transfer of wealth to individuals, encouraging people not to work because they are getting paid more to stay at home been going to their jobs. keepingthat this is zombie companies alive. harsh words. he says that the treasury borrowing will crowd out the price of the economy. he had harsh words for president trump, saying that the trump administration will become the poster child for bad policy
1:49 am
response. the worst policy response on a risk reward basis. manus: politics is never far from markets. he is bullish on one thing. i'm waiting for my special guest -- get from nejra to be delivered. i wait and wait and wait. millerccording to duncan , you should be thankful that amazon exists. that's what he said on this webinar. amazon has done a great job supplying jobs to the economy and doing a good job turning around transforming essentials. he's bullish on amazon. he's not the only one. it's up 28%. the rest of the market has fallen. he says he's bullish on long start strategies. it includes bearish bets among the bullish ones. he says the only reason he likes long short is because he's
1:50 am
worried about everything else. nejra: [laughter] thank you so much. great roundup. u.k. gdp likely recorded it second-largest quarterly drop on record in the fourth quarter even the lockdown measures were only in place for eight days in march. watch for the upcoming data release due at 7:00 london time. this is bloomberg. ♪
1:51 am
1:52 am
manus: this is daybreak europe. minister the prime boris johnson taking baby steps toward reopening the economy from the coronavirus lockdown. behind the messages about what
1:53 am
people can do now, all the signs are that the government is digging in for the long haul. programrnments furlough is paying the wages of people whose employers have temporarily shut down. it will run until at least october. that's as the u.k. announces its growth figures for the first quarter. they are expected to show that the economy shrank by 2.6% in the first three months of the year. what should those numbers -- watch for those numbers at 7:00 local time. our guest is still with us. the one thing we have not talked about, the growth and inflation and negative rates in the u.k.. brexit risk. i looked at the sterling option market. this caught our eye. we were looking at the costsonth contract that 250 at the moment. are we not talking enough about christmas, inat
1:54 am
terms of brexit risk? there is greater focus on the current cover price -- the current crisis over brexit. as we creep up to that deadline, we could see greater demand for sterling downside in the form of those risk options. of brexit the risk exit could be pretty high. one thing to remember, we are still in the eye of the covid-19 crisis. that takes precedent over brexit. especially in sterling markets. riskson't pricing event until one month before the event. it's more of a fourth quarter stories and right now. on boeow, the focus is policy and the slow down in
1:55 am
terms of growth. nejra: interesting. if we talk about what the market is pricing and right now, earlier when you were talking about dollar strength continuing, you did mention the pound as what of the currencies to suffer from that. what you base that on? come in terms of your outlook for boe policy and how much the u.k. economy is actually going to suffer. ani: an expansion -- viraj: expansion is gone. we expected to be bold. markets may position for something bigger than the expected increase in qe. that should keep the pound and gilt yields lower. the u.k. treasury is issuing an unprecedented number of gilts. the challenge for the bank of england will be to keep the curve anchored lower. they may have to go bigger and bolder than previously expected in terms of qe. that will keep the pound lower.
1:56 am
that is not currently priced in. a steady pace of 13.5 billion a week since april. they will run out exactly in time for the june meeting. 100 billion increase barely takes us through to the end of summer. expect bigger and bolder asset purchases from the bank of england. that's not priced in relative to what we are seeing in the fed. that keeps downside moving down. nejra: thank you so much for joining us this hour. that's it for bloomberg daybreak europe. the european open is up next. it's interesting. we are seeing quite a lot of read on the screen in terms of european futures. we could see green with u.s. futures earlier. they have given up their gains right now. the u.s. market taking a hit yesterday on the comments from anthony fauci about reopening to
1:57 am
see him. riskr miller saying rewards in equities are worse -- the worst he seen. he has seen. ♪ these days staying connected is more important than ever.
1:58 am
1:59 am
so we're working 24/7 to maintain a reliable network, to meet your growing internet needs. we're helping customers who are experiencing financial difficulties stay connected. we're increasing internet speeds for low income families in our internet essentials program. and delivering self-install kits to your door. nos comprometemos a mantenerte conectado. we're committed to keeping you connected. for more information on how you can stay connected, visit xfinity.com/prepare. ♪
2:00 am
>> good morning. welcome to bloomberg markets the european open. i'm an edwards. matt: good morning. the market say more stimulus needed. european and u.s. futures turned negative. questions persist over whether governments are doing enough to face the coronavirus. the cash trade is just an hour away. let's get your top headlines for you. starting with

50 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on