"gift" that keeps on giving. president trump for negative interest rates. it is virtually certain the chairman will agree to disagree in a speech this morning. hands a grim view on the pandemic or the brutal admitted death toll in south america. history made for francine lacqua as she will pay the bank to keep the kids' money, a negative rate. the cusp of new swiss strength. it looks like deflation is here. this is bloomberg "surveillance," tom keene in new york, francine lacqua in london. famous bluebird red headline -- bloomberg red

headline, governor bailey with a negative two year yield. francine: there will be no money for my kid because as soon as i can, i will be spending it on childcare. i asked him whether negative rates was something he would consider. the change in tone between him and his predecessor is stark. governor carney always saying absolutely not negative rates for this country. andrew bailey who has been in charge for about two months, kept the door opened, saying probably not now but because of the severity of what we are facing he will not rule anything out. there is a change in tone on what they can and cannot do. seeinge changes we are from tuesday into this wednesday, chairman powell with adam posen and the pearson

institute at the virtual conference today, that will galvanize global wall street. jack ablin here with us in a moment. here is ritika gupta. ritika: we are waiting to see if jerome powell gives anything up about what he will do next. he may call for congress to do more to combat the possibility of mass bankruptcies and long-lasting and a lack of enthusiasm for negative rate. administration's shrugging off comments that "we prevailed." infectious disease chief anthony found she warned communitiesned that outbreaksger of new and denied he has a confrontational relationship with president trump.

the british economy is plunging into what bay -- what may be the deepest recession in three centuries. it was down 2% for the quarter and things are expected to get worse this quarter. the bank of england is forecasting a 25% contraction. amazon's delivery time is becoming normal. a list of restrictions on the amount of inventory supplies that can be sent to amazon warehouses. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. much, greatly so appreciate it. bonds, currencies, commodities, lift to the market with a little bit of churn. resilient dollar, and the tone

in foreign-exchange as we had the great conversation with adam cole in the last hour. the brazilian real is a mess. i am watching one of the great global litmus papers, the swiss franc, its own original idea but the idea of ever stronger grinding strength to the swiss franc is worth watching. francine: what i am looking at is european stocks that are declining but less than a couple of minutes ago. there does seem to be a bit of a shift at the markets and some of the risk off mood. treasuries rising, oil futures slipping. the market is watching jay powell in the hope that they offer fresh clues, that he oh-fers -- offers fresh clues when he speaks today. the dollar steady versus it's

peers. tom: we have the perfect just now -- just to summarize -- guest to summarize the changing died -- tides reflected in the data. you can fold in the whispers of disinflation and deflation in the backdrop, to be blunt, yesterday was not a good day for the mathematics of this pandemic. jack ablin is from chicago and joins us now. we are grinding down the discount rate, grinding down the actuarial assumption. how close are we to the zero bound of our pension? how close are we to the zero bound where all that math does not work? jack: it is confounding. when you look at the possibility of negative rates here at home, i have trusted the fed in their

pledge to avoid negative rates. the thing about negative rates that always puzzled me was, foreign entity that is trying to guard against runs on the bank, one key ingredient to runs on the bank is negative rates at the bank. knowing that you could earn at least zero with a pile of cash under your mattress. tom: i look at this, and it comes back to the market telling people what to do. , awe go back to decades younger mr. soros told the silver market what to do. is there no power in the market to tell chairman powell what to do? jack: yeah, i think there is. late, the late 2008

gaffe in raising rates and the market piled on top of him, he is certainly flexible and willing to respond to market forces. , we seearket forces negative rates hitting the u.k. and other parts of the world. thinkime i checked, i that negative total was well over 17 trillion. it is entirely possible he could cave and deliver negative rates here at home. francine: what does that mean for treasuries and for the markets overall? that that it means is is going to, depending on where inflation or inflation expectations stay, assuming they are going to negative rates as a form of financial repression,

the argument there is it will push investors out into riskier assets. but we have to weigh those riskier assets against this huge uncertainty of the economic reopening. just is just -- what i wrote about was this really fine balance of risks in economic reopening. we saw in georgia they reopened and now they are seeing caseloads increase by 40%. on the other hand, we could open an economy, a local regional economy and nobody goes out. is just a very difficult environment in which to navigate, and we got a sense of that yesterday afternoon. hadppeared that l.a. delayed their opening at around 3:30 new york time, just at

about the time the market turned south. jack, do we see a recovery? are you worried more about the deep this of this crisis -- deepness of this crisis or the patching this of the recovery? jack: the patching this of the recovery -- patchiness of the recovery. the stock market has essentially turned into the bond market. the bond market is a binary investment decision. to vehicle is either going pay off or it isn't, and that is what a lot of equity investors are now viewing equities. ,t is not necessarily degrees it is will this issue make it to the other side of the coronavirus gulch? depth me, yes, it is the

but also the linking time -- length in time that we are at this lower potential rate. correctionveillance" , my brain was frosty with the beautiful new york weather. i was looking at silver and i mentioned the younger george soros but anyone would know i meant the kansas city chiefs and the hunt others as well in the -- brothers as well in the 1980's. i love your idea of the bond market and the equity markets becoming one in the same. how long is lower for longer now? we are seeing carl riccadonna frame out 2021 out to 2022. what is the jack ablin short-term, one year or five years? conservatively two years.

this is where i took comfort in the math. assume thecompany, stock price is the discounted present value of its future cash flows, and you take a reasonably growing company, growing its around 4%,or ebitda and you lop off 2020 and 2020 szero and 20, -- to restart as if it was in a . you are looking at a decline of around 2%. i take comfort in knowing, the s&p is down around that amount and not every company is -- we have to also pick out those that will survive versus those that

5%'t, but i know that around of the s&p is rated below investment grade. 1% is netflix. i couldn't think of a business more suited for the shutdown, so from the s&p perspective, i think the valley right now is about right. -- value right now is about right. , crescentjack ablin wealth advisors chief executive offer -- officer. willg up, ian bremmer, we talk to him about u.s.-china trade war, reopening the economy. this is blue. ♪ -- this is blue. -- bloomberg. ♪

♪ i think we ought to have a little bit of humility in our belief that we know what is best for the economy. as much as i respect you, i do not think you are the end-all, the one person who gets to make a decision. we can listen to your advice but there are people on the other sides saying there is not a surge and we can reopen the economy. the poor and underprivileged kids who do not have a parent to teach them at home will not learn for a full year. we have to look at the swedish model. it is a huge mistake if we do not reopen the schools. >> i have never made myself out to be the end-all. i give advice according to the

best scientific evidence. there are a number of other people who come into that and give advice more related to the things you spoke about, about the need to get the country more -- open again economically. i do not give advice about economic things or advice on anything other than public health. tom: the ophthalmologist from bowling green lecturing the virologist from holy cross on medicine and pandemic of sweden. words fail what we witnessed yesterday. there has been an uproar about this interview from our global audience and careful analysis of what sweden is doing on a regional basis versus the other scandinavian countries, and compared to the challenged nations of europe. right now, never challenged her conversation on washington is our kevin cirilli, our chief

washington correspondent. hillany people on capitol agree with the junior senator from kentucky? kevin: most republicans agree with senator paul, and it will be a much water discussion here. -- broader discussion here. you hear that boiling over amongst conservatives as this drags on. , speaker pelosi unveiling a $3 trillion spending bill. i was told by a senior advisor to former speaker paul ryan that is essentially going to be a messaging bill because republicans are in no way going to get on board. tom: i understand all this, but i would suggest the mathematics of our pandemic yesterday was challenging, to say the least, meso ins less slow --

the major -- less so in the major urban areas but more a spread across the nation. what are republicans hearing from their constituents? kevin: republicans would went to the model of the cities that have been hit either pandemic first, which would mean -- by the pandemic first, which would mean now it is strictly rural and their medical curve is behind the timeline of what the cities experienced. secondly, i would point to this issue that any of the concerns from an educational standpoint, as senator paul pointed to, are the same concerns that the cities have, especially when it comes to underserved and underprivileged communities. especially from an education perspective, and i spoke with

just one local education official yesterday, from an education perspective, that is going to be -- those are real concerns about the technology differences and whatnot, from a very young age. dramatic kids at a disadvantage. tom: i cannot convey enough how yesterday in new york city, this is the tone. central park is getting far more crowded and last night, just as a vignette, an ice cream truck showed up for the first time in ages, if not this season, and the crowd was extraordinary. francine: i hear you talk about new york and i think you are talking about london. the parallels in the u.k., and the beginning we had scientific advisors saying people will be set up with the lockdown and they were trying to tie it down.

it is definitely something that could be set across countries. how does this play out into the election? how is the president doing in terms of polling? he has gone around the country continuing his campaign. andn: according to polls, several have come out, in wisconsin he is trailing former vice president joe biden by three percentage points. michigan, pennsylvania, arizona polls, he is trailing single digits, not dramatically, but trailing joe biden who has not done all that much in terms of campaigning. he has been himself. his campaign is pushing out messages, and i asked that question to a prominent republican strategist yesterday. democrats wille

continue to make this election a referendum on president trump. view a lackreally of rallies as a necessity for their campaign strategy. francine: how will people judge the president's response? i feel like sometimes i am repeating myself, but our people more worried about the economy and their wages or the number of people ending up in hospital? in the short term, there is an understanding that republicans and democrats, for the 2020 election, americans are focused on their day to day lives. has been suggest this a polarizing issue in terms of support for the president or criticism of the president. one demographic that republicans have their eye on his senior

citizens. they have declining support for president trump for a variety of reasons according to political experts. they have been especially hit hard in terms of how the pandemic has played out, and that support has drifted away from president trump. tom: kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. later today after chairman powell and the market flow, a conversation with the attorney general of the conversation -- commonwealth of massachusetts, mori healy. maura healy. ♪

♪ everyone,morning, bloomberg "surveillance." the vix in two points, a big vacillation. 31 on the vix in 2.11 points. up 19, dow futures up 174. later today, david rubenstein with the gentleman from google, eric schmidt. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, -- shocked by our own family stories, people bouncing off the wall. it has been wildly reported, it is a dog's world. there is literally a dog shortage in new york city and everyone is trying to be like ian bremmer. joining us is the star of , who has brought along aboutn bremmer to talk financial relations. he is the only winner of the pandemic, that is pretty clear. tom: what has it meant for the bremmer family to have moose with you every day? ian: it is awesome until there

squ and i cannot say that out because he will go bat [beep]. it makes live tv more interesting. tom: i want to go up secure on brazil, it is a mess. times doing huge treatment from the mexican border, latin america, south america, and this pandemic. the eurasia group does a study of rizzo. -- brazil. how fragile is rizzo? -- brazil? ian: i ran a question on twitter, who is to run your country, who do you pick, bolsonaro lost the paul badly

with about 9%. badly with about 9%. not only did he fire his well-respected minister of health and has been promoting fake news about the coronavirus, he had his videos stop midstream by instagram and had tweets taken down by twitter. typeave to have alex jones material to get that done. well-respected minister of justice and the scandal over time could lead to his impeachment. he has managed to get everything wrong while the caseload and death toll in brazil is increasing dramatically. moose does not appreciate that. [dog growling]

tom: let me bring in my colleague, francine i believe is dog free but there is a rumor there will be a dog at the house. francine: if the kids are watching us now, they will ask for one tonight. we look at the economy and how ideally you open an economy while minimizing the infections and deaths. is there anything else you worry about? does the whole society change because there is a pivot to asia because they have come out of this quicker and in europe there is a lack of solidarity? ian: there is so many pieces to worry about. andis the globalization what happens to efficient supply chains. we will pay more to have a level of resilience and when the pandemic is in the rearview mirror, that will reduce. in addition to that, you also have issues of the united states

versus china and the fact that as you start bailing out american industry, you want those companies to put capital and jobs back in the u.s. you will see a linkage to the number of american allies. china will be completely dominant with the poorer companies. 80% of external debt is held by china. soon it will be all of their tech and data and you will see the poorer countries, southeast asia and south america, some of east and southern europe will be oriented more towards the chinese. we have been living in this world where globalization is driving goods and services faster and faster. we will be moving in a world that is much more fragmented and more costly to operate in, and

more political dangers as a consequence. tom: let's come back with dr. bremmer. maybe we will be dog free. up, but now our news in new york city. ritika: there is little chance the house democrats' relief package will be turned into law. it proposes aid to states and local stop -- governments, and more spending on unemployment and food stamps, but republicans are in no rush to negotiate. passage in the house would give the democrats a marker for the election. waiting for what jerome powell will have to say about negative interest rates and high unemployment. he is likely to call on congress for additional relief funds and

may likely signal against cutting the benchmark rate below zero. -- will be able to spend unlimited time outdoors, the real estate market has reopened, and people working from home have been encouraged to go to their jobs. the judge in the case of former national security advisor michael flynn is saying not so fast. the justice department wants to dismiss this case but emmett sullivan wants to hear what outsiders think. plead had -- flynn had already pleaded guilty to fbi agent -- for lying to fbi agents. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i amro do could go. -- i am the. -- riddick a group to. ika gupta.

sachs, in theman 8:00 hour. stay with us, futures higher. this is bloomberg. ♪

everyone,morning, bloomberg "surveillance your go -- bloomberg "surveillance." futures high. richard haass has out a wonderful book called "usurer of -- future of the

world," and it reminded me of your book. what is the bremmer theory of international relations? ian: trends we were seeing speed up, so we don't come out of the coronavirus into a new world order. the inequality that was driving antiestablishment sentiment across democracies all over the world expands dramatically. the level of confrontation between the u.s. and china that made some of us worry, expands som -- somewhat sharply. the sustainability of the e.u. as theyyou -- have no capacity to see their debt mutual lysed, we will see sustainable growth and the germans are not prepared to provide it.

what happens is this idea that , isave more unilateralism very obviously something like global leadership or coordinated response with the most sharp, most significant global crisis of our lifetime, that gives you a sense of what we are in for coming out of it. tom: what do you see president trump doing here? we are going day today with whatever the moment is and the great cultural divide of the united states of america. china off the radar in has been the secretary of state. what do you see as the projected international relations of the trump administration in the coming weeks and months? ian: first you asked on trump and then you said the trump administration, and those are different things. i saw a quote that everyone is

trying to figure out quote -- --mp is trying to figure out for him, it is all about him, how can you possibly give me such poor ratings? everything is about me. the trump administration in this environment, their job has been mixed and we deserve to recognize it. it is not like the wheels are falling off. the original response was late. we did not get tests up and running fast enough. thousand were not working and we could have gone to the who and the germans but did not. the initial economic response was bipartisan and very strong and pelosi, mnuchin consistent, very one of the reasons the markets

have done comparatively well. international relations have been poor and that the americans are not calling the g7 or g20 to coordinate an international has been mostit problematic in their unwillingness to work globally in a coordinated fashion to develop a backs in -- vaccine. the tax on the world health organization which is a weak organization that has their problems, but is better than nothing, that could end up biting us badly if it turns out the initial vaccine does not come out of the united states. n, what are the chances president trump gets reelected given what you have said? ian: they are real, close to a coin flip. we talk about national polls for reasons that are unbeknownst to me because we do not have a national election, we have swing

states that matter. he will be running for reelection in the first depression of our lifetime economically. that will clearly hurt him a lot , but also there will be social distancing going on in this pandemic very much still in november which means there will be lower turnout, and the enthusiasm from his base is not as wide but is much sharper. it is pretty close. we don't know how biden will hold up in debate and on the campaign trail. he has not been great the last few times i have seen him on television. we will not -- we do not know what measures trump will take to politicize the investigations of biden and his son hunter as it relates to the russians. ensure they will try to

the elections are secure against external intervention. here we are in may and we can say that this election will be unprecedentedly nasty, and many americans will feel like it is rigged before they go to vote. that is not what you want to see when we need legislation from our government. we need a bailout and that i worry about. francine: you are one of the ones that coined the phrase g0. it to a pandemic move point of no return? does globalization take a bigger hit? ian: there is no question that the ability and willingness of the americans to provide global leadership has eroded beyond the point of no return, irrespective of the winds in november -- wins

in november. the alignment with the united states is weaker. the russia are trying -- theians are trying to -- chinese are trying to develop a new world order and step into our shoes but they are nowhere near powerful enough. coming out of this crisis, americans may lose influence in the poorer parts of the world but compared to our allies we will be stronger than we were coming in. tech companies will be stronger. we have them all. the role we will play in terms of the strength of our banks will be much more important, not to mention the fact that we are a major food and energy exporter and our allies aren't. he will can win, certainly be more interested in not punishing the world health

organization, rejoining the paris accord. the moment in the united states will get stronger and the recognition of existing entered ashen all -- international organizations do not reflect the geopolitical order and american interests as much as they used to, that will be a problem for countries in the world. tom: china has been in the news. there is this item here and this what they are summing up in the united states to a bipartisan thrust against beijing, how is it different than the other times we have seen washington go at the chinese? ian: it is not different in terms of trust. there was never significant trust between the americans and chinese, under bush, obama, or

trump, but there is less interdependence and a greater willingness to fight. we use to have a world wide web with all of our technology together and now we have a technology cold war with competing american and chinese systems. we have inter-linkage in chair aid -- trade but that will change as we pull manufacturing out of china and bring it back to the united states. greateringness will be and as we think about this election, trump needs to blame someone, 83,000 deaths and counting. that does not look like success. an economic depression in november, they were hoping we would have a big rebound in the third quarter. nobody really thinks that is coming. you have to blame the chinese. blame china will be the build

the wall rallying cry for 2020, and the pretension -- potential that that could lead to a cold war is real. so: ian bremmer, thank you much, and all of your experts at eurasia group. we are going to continue, good conversation through the morning on bloomberg television and radio. the terminal moving to the highlight of the day, chairman powell's speech at 9:00. this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: this is bloomberg "surveillance." up ongas sands is giving its $10 billion casino project in japan. they object to language that would limit the japanese license to just 10 years and government officials could change the terms in a way that would hurt profit. officials in washington and major cities are turning down to buy grubhub.

if there is a deal, it is likely to face antitrust scrutiny. americans should be prepared to pay more for meat. -- some plants are running slower than normal because of social distancing and some production lines will be fully automated, resulting in higher costs. that is your bloomberg business flash. gupta, thank you so much. we have been talking with members of johns hopkins university about this pandemic. lauren sauer has been kind enough to join us repeatedly, always giving good perspective. i want you to talk about dr. f auci, the virologist, talking to

the ophthalmologist, going at it over infectious disease? is an: i think dr. fauci expert. as an infectious disease physician, we have to trust that his path forward and vision for how to safely reopen the country is the most important path to follow. we have to be safe, steadfast, and this is the time when we need that voice of leadership. lauren, good morning from london. where can you find a voice of leadership? is there anyone or anything when you look at testing and some of the things about what this virus does, that you would trust? lauren: that is one of our bigger challenges -- biggest challenges. in that discussion, when dr.

cavalier whenim he said schools should reopen, i don't feel we have a strong national leadership front we can go to for support. normally you would expect that from the cdc and the cdc has been sidelined. bestnk dr. fauci is our bet on how we can take advice safely, but that conversation yesterday demonstrated that we really still have that need. francine: thank you so much, too ofrt of time, lauren sauer johns hopkins university department of emergency medicine. every day for exclusive conversations with johns hopkins experts for an inside look at paddling covid-19. covid-19.- battling

the market is trying to figure out what to do. if you look at the risk off move in europe earlier on, it is gaining a bit of ground. some 1.2%tocks down earlier. 1.5%, anddown some risk off is continuing with gold , 1704. bloomberg "surveillance continues on the radio. this is bloomberg. ♪

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alix: u.k. lunging into recession. in economy falls almost 6% march. open up please. fed officials warn if business failures that will leave a scar on the u.s. economy. investors wait for jay powell to speak at 9:00 a.m. gop senators announcing a bill that lets president trump sanction china over the coronavirus, while beijing says it will buy american farm products as long as the u.s. creates a friendly atmosphere. red,ean stocks deep in the down 1% to 2%. equity futures in the u.s. up despite the really ugly close from yesterday. we had the nasdaq and the s&p tumble 2% into the close. the price action today in u.s. equities very important. broadly weaker dollar story.

also t