francine: global stocks firmly in the green despite tensions between washington and beijing. carrie lam defends china's planned security law and rejects criticism from foreign governments. u.s. coronavirus deaths near 100,000. in the u.k., boris johnson stands by his embattled top aide and announces nonessential stores in england will open on june 15. and sweden didn't close its economy but still predicts a 7% contraction this year, this as the nation's death toll surpasses its nordic neighbors. we hear from finance minister this hour. well, good morning, good everyone. we look at the markets and what is going on with the european union, and we heard from the ,rench central bank governor and he was talking about the ecb doing more and certainly not being deterred by the verdict a couple of weeks ago. tom: a real change in the wind

today, francine. after the three day weekend here in the united states, what i really suggest is the testing of how we get back to normal. the markets decided with futures higher. francine: we will have plenty more on the market shortly, but now let's get straight to bloomberg first word news from new york city. ritika: good morning, in france hasn hong kong, carrie lam defended the sweeping new security laws. she says it is untrue that the legislation would ban street protests. she promised hong kong freedom would be preserved. pro-democracy groups are planning another major rally tomorrow. president trump is vowing to move the republican convention out of north carolina unless crowds are allowed. state'sa shot at the democratic governor, roy cooper. the president says he wants to be assured that republicans can gather in charlotte in august, whether there are coronavirus

outbreaks or not. british prime minister boris johnson is facing another day of pressure to discipline his top adviser. dominic cummings has refused to quit amid allegations that he broke the government's virus lockdown laws. his party called on him to fire cummings. the men who turned macau into the las vegas of asia has died. stanley: was a one time -- stanley ho was a one-time trader who turned it into the largest gambling hub in macau, with 20 casinos on the island. thequestion is whether company can continue despite fast feuds. -- past feuds. he was 98 years old. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. francine? tom? francine: that --

tom: thank you so much. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. a lift to the market. the fix coming in nicely, the dow 25,000, beckoning with his whole -- beckoning. will this hold? we will say. calmswiss shows safe haven not so much in gold, euro-swissie backs up again against a weaker swiss franc. francine? francine: the dollar actually slipping for a second session. i'm also looking at treasuries. it was a three-day u.s. weekend, also in the u.k. , debt isok at germany also sliding. $34 a barrel. back to the top story after resurgence of demonstrations as best we can, china sought to reassure hong kong by declaring

the city's you to sherry will remain independent even if the security laws take effect. joining us now is enda curran. i am confused. did they backed down on the initial proposal? or what exactly is going on? enda: they're still pushing ahead with the security law, francine, but what is happening is the hong kong government and the beijing government are trying to assure people in hong kong, investors in hong kong, necessarilyll not override the framework here. there is a lot of concern that that won't be the case. there is concerned with the independent judiciary, the rule of law, the effect it will have. making theernment is point that that won't be the case. they are saying it is only in specific areas of national security, and that the goal of

freedom that hong kong enjoys will remain. but of course one point that should be made, that remains with what detail -- aging has yet to reveal -- beijing has yet how broad reaching and how far-reaching the new law will be. francine: will it be enough to appease protesters? protest movement is already back on his feet. we had some clashes over the weekend. all indications are that those protests will continue over the coming weeks and the coming a number of reasons, not just the national security banning theer laws chinese national anthem. the backdrop of course remains that the economy is under a lot of pressure still, both from the

political upheaval and from the coronavirus since january. be ans not appear to indication in the near term at least. tom: wonderful to hear from you. what was the size of the protest? in all my reading this weekend, i could not get a handle on the depths of the protest. in brazil we are used to seeing protests of hundreds of thousands. i will let you give me scope and scale for hong kong, but give us the scope and scale of this moment of protest. enda: well, the particular protest on sunday was something of a sporadic gathering. the gathering backdrop is that there are restrictions. our own reports estimated at hundreds, several in the press estimated thousands. so there are plans over the coming days and weeks, including

one tomorrow where we might see larger routes, and then at the end of june where there are a number of key anniversaries, i think they expect the protest movement -- as the summer goes by and we have important elections in september, local elections of assembly, by all accounts, the protests will gather momentum. francine: enda curran, bloomberg's chief asian economics correspondent. the nordic region's biggest economy has taken a radically different strategy to dealing with the coronavirus crisis. despite keeping shops, restaurants, and jim's open throughout the pandemic, sweden's government says the economy will shrink 7% this year, its worst recession since the second world war. joining us from stockholm is magdalena andersson. thank you so much of her giving us a bit of your time.

france and germany have unveiled the economic recovery plan. will you and will sweden support the plan? not as it stands right now. this will be a discussion among the ministers of finance but also among the theaters of europe. we are definitely willing to cooperate in the european union during this crisis. we have also been a constructive partner when it comes to this crisis, for the eib but also the mechanism. we will also support some kind of roof -- some kind of recovery fund. but we have to know what it would look like. from our perspective, it has to be realistic when it comes to size but also the conditions. but i think even more important to say is that if the european economy is to recover, it will be even more important to have the internal markets fully functioning again. that would be an in parent driver to restart the european economy. francine: minister, how do you

understand the conditions right now? i know we like detail, but germany said the plan would in no way have any kind of debt neutralization. is that also how you understand it? magdalena: that is something we find very difficult, from a swedish perspective. i think this will be one of the discussions that we have among the ministers of finance. sweden,: i know denmark, and the netherlands -- go ahead, tom. tom: no, please, go ahead, francine. francine: minister, i was going to ask you about the new proposal that was put by some of the nordic countries, for the e.u. economic recovery plan with concessional loans to countries that need them. you think that will go ahead? is he getting traction? the -- is well -- is that getting traction? explainingi think for the citizens of europe,

because we work with so many from different backgrounds when it comes to the recovery phase. tom: minister, good morning morning. tom new york. all of this world, and particularly the world of science, is watching the of heard immunity in sweden, the opening up of sweden , the ability of sweden to get back to normal. how far is your nation to getting back to a normal in economy and normal tax regime, which you are expert in, given the dramatic difference in depth between sweden and the rest of scandinavia? had -- frome have the government side, the advice that experts had given us on how to deal with the pandemic, they looked on a -- they worked on a long-term strategy, having the measures that can also last for a long time, and i think it is

important to underline that life assweden does not go on normal with recommendations that we have when it comes to social distancing, working from home, avoiding public transportation, lots of travel. that affects how life looks in sweden, but also of course our economy in other countries. this will of course continue, both when it comes to social distancing and other restrictions. getting -- tom: we are getting in the data now -- and it is remarkable the data now versus nine weeks ago -- how does sweden reengage with europe, given 4000 deaths? how would we engage? we do have a close cooperation in europe, and we are at a different stage in the pandemic between the european countries and also the countries that were

hit earlier, and other countries will be more hit later during the coming months and weeks. thefrom our perspective, cooperation we have in the european union will be very important for the economic recovery in the coming weeks and months. minister, what kind of conditions do you want to see attached to the disbursement of aid to countries most hit by the virus? me, i didn'tcuse understand the question. i didn't hear it quite. francine: the question is kind of, what conditions, if there was a program to give money to italy and the others, what conditions do you want to see attached to that plan? magdalena: well, that is something we are open to discuss. we think there should be conditions when it comes to supporting other countries, just as there are conditions, for international the

bodies when they do give support. conditions are important, but we are open to discussing all kinds of conditions that there would be. when it comes to, for instance, long-term sustainable public finances. francine: do you think that loans are a really good solution for countries -- that more loans are good solutions for countries like italy right now? magdalena: we definitely think that loans could be a way forward. it depends on what it looks like and what are the conditions for the loans but also the conditions of getting the loans. is going italy's debt to be nearly 160% of gdp. how sustainable is that longer-term? do you worry that certain countries will need bailouts at the end of it? magdalena: i have for a very long time been concerned about the debt in many european countries. and there is not only for me but for many in europe, the death

levels reducing in some countries. at this is not the time to talk about how we entered the crisis. this is how we talk about after the crisis is over, and handling the situation. but of course if countries that high -- that have high death levels need more loans, talk about the conditions about those loans. francine: how do you think the crisis will change sweden forever, longer-term? what will be the legacy of the coronavirus? magdalena: one of the legacies is that we did work together. we had very good cooperation within the european union, a very quick crisis response. for instance, when it comes to the eib work. i also know that the euro the esm, were close in and with this crisis, it will make us even better at working

together. during hard times but also good -- also during good times. tom: minister, thank you so much for joining us. from sweden, magdalena andersson, the minister of finance. coming up, jp morgan. lots of interesting things to talk about. nicelynts for the vix, under a 28 level. stay with us. from london and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

,"m: "bloomberg surveillance from london and new york. it is a three day weekend of

some measure in the united states, it is a three-day weekend of some measure in the united kingdom. what it really is is an early beginning to june. the pandemic has been extra ordinary for finance, for investment, and certainly it is historic on a scale of economics that is unimaginable. we have been thrilled that john normand has synthesized it for us. he is from jp morgan and writes a detailed note across foreign exchange and the market. thank you for joining us on monday even though it is tuesday. what was the singular message in your note this weekend about what we can learn from the correlation of these markets? john: i think the main message is that markets are responding to this global recovery that is taking hold. the very early days of the recovery, but it is coming through in hard activity data in asia and certainly in europe and the u.s., and markets are

responding to that. it may not be as forceful and there is another turning point, but it is definitely coming true. employment is a lagging indicator. can you take the economic suffering that so many are facing, particularly in the job market, and can you link that into the optimism of new signs of recovery? because most think people are used to thinking of recovery of a lagging indicator doesn't ask markets what they are going to do over the next three months or so, i think they will think about unemployment in six months time and realize that we are getting a return to growth. there will be doubts about consumption, and this will feed views on earnings, and that is where you might start to see some headwinds in the market. people are paying attention to labor now, but i think they will

be paying attention to it in a few months. that people are not paying attention to labor now, but i think it will be paying attention to it in a few months. francine: if you look at the equity markets, are they not pricing in the risk of a strong recession? are they not taking it seriously enough? john: i think markets are slightly ahead of themselves, meaning it is very difficult for retrace a different share of the recession decline when the new expansion is just starting. but the size of the gains that has been accrued over the past couple of months, particularly in frontloading the first three months, that is a slight a largen problem, valuation problem. they have already retrace all lost beforeave the recession. it is a small valuation problem, certainly not echoed across all

financial markets. commodities have not been traced nearly as much as exports have and equities have not been traced as much as the u.s. have. john, when you look at how the markets have been behaving, is it your base case that actually the lockdown would last longer than this, so we are going to have a more sustained or rapid recovery? john: i think you can be confident that we will see something incredibly strong in terms of recovery over the next one month, next three months, maybe slightly longer. that is because your starting point on growth is so weak, that the starting point on activity is so weak. more questions will be asked as to what shape will the recovery look like, q4 of this year into 2021. that is when you have to question how high unemployment

is, the restrictions on movement and activity, kind of constrain andmuch corporate's invest how much consumers want to spend. i am not worried about what the data will look like. i am were about what they would look like in the second half of the year. -- i am more worried about what they would look like in the second half of the year. francine: john, what do you do with gold in this kind of environment? john: you own it. i think gold is sort of an all-weather hedge against the dynamics. the extreme monetary environment that is keeping interest rates negative and will keep them negative for the next several years. i think it is also a hedge against indebtedness that will make a lot of people comfortable with debt and certain economies, particularly in parts of europe and some of the emerging markets. if we ever do get to a place in

the economy four or five years ago -- four or five years from now, i think it is worth holding for a whole range of macro scenarios, a lot of which are strange or adverse over the next few years. francine: will there be an inflation upturn, john? john: i think we may have that in four or five years, but we need a lower starting point on inflation. most of what is happening with the recession is disinflationary. there is very high unemployment, jobs moving to suburban areas. the only things you will say that support inflation might be a deglobalization push, but that is an extremely long-term phenomenon set against the phenomenon for the next 1, 2, 3 years, which is disinflation because of a very weak labor market. tom: john, i look at safe havens. you go to the bloomberg

terminal and everybody has five or six dynamics of safe asians, the emotion away from gold -- safe havens, the emotion away from gold. i will take the swiss franc. how do you study safe havens right now? how do they fit into the overall study of the market. john: we have to think of them outcome,g during a bad dm government bonds, gold, the swiss franc. thinking about it in terms of reflecting a strange monetary policy, every central bank interest rates -- if all central banks are engaging in big asset purchases, you're simply not going to have a move up in yields. so safe haven bonds are going to be stern in price terms. you're definitely not going to have capital outflows from places like switzerland and japan into high-yield markets like you have in the past. it doesn't matter which way you

turn. our people scared or they -- or are they reacting to the monetary policy environment? those are treasuries, gold. they benefit from either perspective, the perspective, the long range perspective. to continuegoing with john normand. we are thrilled that he is with us today from j.p. morgan. francine come a shock in italy. we'll know the wonderful, wonderful economics of italy and the tragedy this weekend of the loss of alberto a la sina. i interviewed him any number of times out of harvard, and his thoughts on austerity were astounding. a huge loss for italian economics. it isne: i think important to remind everyone that this is not covid related, but was a huge loss for the political and economic fields, which will not be the same without him.

for italians, it is a huge loss. he was considered a national treasure, a respected italian economist abroad, tom. tom: a huge loss. we will talk with adam posen about the life of alberto a la sina here. it is a big day for bloomberg surveillance. in all the years i have been doing this. we are going to try a simulcast. look for that today at 7:00. ferro.terwards with jon this is bloomberg. ♪

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gold and inflation expectations, but what is your base case for what kind of recovery we will see? major economies are reopening. what comes in the third and fourth quarter of this year? john: i think you will see growth beyondp what has ever been witness before-- witnessed because the starting point has been so weak, and this could carry over to q4. it is about pent-up demand. you will also see inflation move lower for the next few quarters because of the high unemployment rates and slowdown in wage growth. parts of that story are very impressive, the initial boom. part of it will be concerning. i think it is good enough to support risking martin's --

markets over the near term. it is the middle phase that is a bit unclear because starting vibrations are a bit high and there is some question around the payback, how do corporate's contend with the new operating willonment and how willing consumers be to spend? , notisky market this year better than cash or bonds. francine: what happens to emerging markets? they have been battered more than some were saying, and it has to do with the virus and if it except in the coming months. john: you need to think about the emerging markets in a country by country context rather than a blanket asset class context. the main challenge for emerging markets over the next year as an asset class is the interest

rates have come down so much that a lot of investors have considered this to be inferior to corporate credit in the u.s. and worth the additional risk. you have some countries with high real interest rates, like mexico and russia. these are beneficiaries. asia can normally benefit, but related to the u.s.-china relationship. it is a country by country call. tom: it is always interesting and the modesty and acclaim of john normand. nohave no sophisticated -- idea how sophisticated his research note is for j.p. morgan, looking at the short paper market. what do you glean about liquidity and solvency? there is a bankruptcy here and

there, another one over here. weekend, a car this not flying to latin america, we are doing fine. i don't buy it. parse liquidity versus solvency. john: liquidity is ample in that money supply has exploded since the bank balance sheet has grown at a record pace. central banks are putting liquidity into financial market whether that is bonds or credit, in the u.s. and europe. what they cannot resolve the solvency issue, to what extent an companies viable in environment of social distancing? a lot of those companies were always at risk even before the crisis because they were incredibly levered and dying industries, and covid hastened the process. i think when we come out of the

other side of this, what people will realize as there were already some underlying fragility's in a number of economies but got activated by the crisis. no amount of liquidity will make those companies viable and that is why the other side of this will be a reasonably high default rate. along with that will be the structure off a -- a higher unemployment rate. not as the payback from this crisis. ed is not that the central banks did not do enough but they cannot resolve structural issues around high risk corporate's. tom: what does bankruptcy do the confidence? i am fascinated by how it changes the corporate walk, the corporate tone. we can have recovery in markets and i understand the corridors of j.p. morgan worry about where we are going, but will we do it

with a lack of business confidence because of the daily drift of bankruptcies? john: i think you have to take this by sector. i don't think there is any lack of confidence if you are corporate operating in the tech space or communication services or even health care. those models were validated by the crisis and are more in demand because of the crisis. once you look at more classic cyclicals, whether that is financials or industrials or commodities, the concern will be much stronger and will be more enduring because a lot of that is related to the deeper the expansion and consumer behavior. you will see kind of a tiering of corporate investment rates with winners like tech, communication services, and health care for 2020. to the extent meant that

investment after that and more difficult sectors, that is more of an open question about where demand goes on what labor markets look like. it is not all bad, it will just be kind of narrow this year. francine: what do you do with havens such as yen or swiss franc? john: i think there is an asymmetry in those markets where they will not go down if the economy ends up delivering strong growth, and they will almost certainly go up if a recovery disappoints. the reason we have that asymmetry in safe havens is because we have asymmetry in interest rates. aserest rates will not go up it evolves because the central banks. if the recovery disappoints, you will see central banks looking

at the balance sheets and it could move into targeting the fixed income markets. the range of outcomes on bonds is driving the partial range of outcomes on safe havens. francine: we are just getting a headline, germany's two-year bond sale is the strongest in 13 years. what does that tell us about european government bond issuance? john: it tells you that as extraordinary as the issuance would be, because the deficits are the largest we have seen, is still a lot of demand. whether that is as a hedge or reflecting conservatism, it could be a lot of things. it is very hasty to be bearish on government bonds simply because supply is booming and the economy will be picking up and there is a lot going on. tom: john normand with j.p. morgan.

now in new york city, here is ritika gupta. ritika: china's coronavirus outbreak, they are afraid there could be a second wave. will hand tested nearly -- who reported 206 new cases. there 76 day lockdown was lifted in april but new cases were discovered this month. russia sees the global oil market rebalancing in june or july and have been opec's key ally. the energy ministers says they have lowered oil supplied by as much as 15 barrels a day so far. oil prices have soared more than 50% -- 15%. emmanuel macron is introducing measures to support the auto industry, to buy cleaner cars and help electric auto

batteries. -- theopean commission bailout of lift towns, it make somefthansa, it may cause -- cost some assets. they are concerned the rescue will give the carrier unfair advantage over competitors. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. bloomberg. -- this is bloomberg. francine: a little bit more from what we saw from the german 4.0rnment, germany has sold 7 billion two-year notes with the interest rate at -.66% so it seems there is a lot of appetite even though they are negative. up next, stephanie kelly, we will ask her about the u.k. and

brexit. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ francine: tom and francine from london and new york. boris johnson is facing another day of pressure to discipline his seniormost advisor. he said he had not considered resigning and it was up to johnson to decide if you should lose his job. this is of course about his trip to durham in the middle of the lockdown. joining me is stephanie kelly. this has really taken a life of its own.

we were chatting off-line. it may seem unfamiliar and unreasonable from outside the u.k., but what does boris johnson do next? can he really survive and not do credibility if he does not go? stephanie: it has been pretty striking the extent to which he has backed cummings and tommy -- cummings taking the unprecedented step of holding his own press conference against an unusual backdrop. the challenge you will hear is whether a senior minister comes the cabinet comes out publicly against this. where this ism is going to be worse is the areas the consumers picked up, former -- voting,ng income lower income areas, seeing it through the protection -- prism

of the protection that it was elitist. tonson is probably looking can he hold his cabinet together in terms of messaging, and does that provide wiggle room for this to die out and another story to take hold? it presser not letting go of and you are seeing more pressure. francine: i remember being told by a member of the senior cabinet that if you have the daily mail and guardian united and pushing the same story out against you, you stand no chance. stephanie: exactly. add to that the telegraph, you could put the same level on that is not just being taken on the left. what was really striking to me was the individuals who did come out against it, backbench conservative mps alongside the telegraph and daily mail.

francine: when you look at -- tom: stephanie -- francine: go ahead, tom. stephanie, when you look at brexit, how does this play into the brexit negotiations between the stephanie: u.k. and e.u.? it isk to a degree creating political noise around something which is not brexit, which coronavirus has clearly done. in the last four or five months you would've thought that every single day would be brexit but naturally coronavirus took up a huge amount of time and this is feeding into that political noise. you are not getting an opportunity for the u.k. government two-state its position clearly -- government to state its position clearly on brexit because negotiations have been slowed down by the coronavirus, and you are not

getting a sense of how negotiations are progressing. ongoing. it is political noise around it. my deeper concern is that the choices he makes for his personal life, negotiators usually are sin -- in the same room and the coronavirus is a bigger issue for brexit because it is creating a physical barrier between negotiators so they cannot create backroom deals or go for a coffee in between and say how about something else? that is the part of the process we are not getting and it will slow everything down. tom: how is the british economy? i look at the wonderful charts the ft is doing with johns hopkins university and others to -- other statistics houses on per capita deaths in the united kingdom, it is a favorable glide path from an ugly level.

how is the economy doing? stephanie: you have got a similar path then you have seen in europe. if you essentially shut down in economy -- an economy, which is what the lockdown does, you see massive week in activity. -- weakness in activity. you expect that. it is to an extent encouraging that we are seeing reopening and broadly speaking the drop in economic data is kind of april/may, and as we get the reopening the data should improve. the labor support program has

been positive in the u.k. so the fact that people have been furloughed rather than losing their job, huge support. support for corporate is encouraging, so yes, the data now will be really bad, but we think some of that activity will not be recovered, not just in the u.k.. i think our perception for the u.k. and more widely is quite a now, shock to activity for but we expect a recovery to come will not be3, q4, fully recovered by the end of the year, and overall output will be damaged longer-term. tom: stephanie kelly, thank you so much, we will continue with stephanie kelly of aberdeen standard. much more to talk about, the labor secretary of the united states, a timely conversation with mr. scalia.

worldwide, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ ritika: this is bloomberg surveillance. let's get your bloomberg business flash. , twokeup at aston martin months after a cash rescue by the billionaire chairman, he is out the new chief executive is the head of the mercedes amg performance division. aston martin has struggled. lawrence strolled let a rescue effort and became executive chairman. plans for ahelving full merger, automakers will recover from the coronavirus pandemic and will announce restructuring plans next week. morei is getting investments in fast-growing fields such as cancer.

continue tos will collaborate on drug research. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: let's get back to stephanie kelly. there is of course tensions escalatingewing and between the u.s. and hong kong over the pandemic. how will this end? this experience is showing is the extent to which while investors tend to anchor on the trade deal and tariffs, which are under threat, the issues between the u.s. and china are deeper and wider and longer lasting, and we will be talking about them for the next 10 years. coronavirus is a prime example, a hell shock that has been utilized -- health shock that has been utilized by the right-wing press and the

president as an opportunity to place china in the spate of blame and point the finger clearly at china for the origins of the virus and dealing with the virus. issues like hong kong, they bring up deep issues between the u.s. and china which is you have two hours based off of different based offs -- powers of different perceptions of what a good economy looks like. economy ando the say this works and the capitalist led economy does not work, the coronavirus is showing that having a market led, pro-transparency economy versus an economy that is very much censured by the government in china is creating huge tensions and will only get worse in the next 10 years, depending on whether trump is still in the white house. francine: will china be blamed

on not getting a grip on the pandemic, and what are the consequences longer-term? stephanie: you are already seeing china try to spin the story now because not only is the u.s. coming out and making acquisitions -- accusations of china not reviving enough information upfront, but other countries like australia and european nationstates are making the same questions about whether we need to do an investigation. they want the who to do an investigation into the pandemic, so the pressure is building. china will try to flip the story. their approach to a vaccine has been different. they said it will be a public good and if it is developed in china, it will be given out across the globe. i guess you can see the pure battle on this is far from done,

and as vaccines and aid packages, particularly as ems struggle more with the virus, those are way china will try to reach -- reclaim this as more positive. tom: stephanie kelly with aberdeen standard today. on this tuesday, it is not monday even though it feels like it, futures up 57, dow futures up 511. up next, a conversation with adam posen. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ tom: this morning, there will be an end to this pandemic.

stocks and bonds price the expectation of a return to normal, or at least a new normal. look for a june surge in bankruptcies. wind ofe, and july, the this crisis. distant,nt is socially particularly over the weekend, and the politics of wearing a mask? golfs, one prime minister explains a 260 mile drive and another prime minister says goodbye to a 96-year-old mother from a distance. this is "bloomberg surveillance," on a most extraordinary tuesday. tom keene in new york, francine lacqua in london. the juxtaposition of the uproar in the united kingdom versus the silent courage