where the economy is going to be going over the next couple of months. forecasting the next several years is even harder. markety other financial is pricing and something. >> economic forecasts are hazardous at best, even more so now. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." equity futures all over the place this thursday. we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. keene, i'mom jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz. so much as happened between the united states and china, but not much has changed. we are still waiting for the white house's response and what they do next. tom: it is absolutely going to be the white house's response.

maybe we will hear from secretary pompeo. "e had "the new york times story about chinese students in america, but i agree with you, it is incredibly fluid. we spoke with lord patton about an hour ago, and he was deeply emotional about this moment. what am imagining is he was the last governor of hong kong before it was headed over in 1997, and i am trying to understand what he thinks foreign governments should do at this point. we will be talking about the special trading status over the next few hours. i just wonder whether it makes a difference whether you -- whether the united states rescinds. clearly thatvery the trump administration can't do this alone. there has to be a developed economy and developed politics , with 2047 being

slammed forward to where we are now. jonathan: 90 minutes away, jobless claims this thursday morning, which means we got to look at some ugly jobs data. lisa: and one thing i have been noting is that the pessimism we are seeing in the economic data contrasts completely with the optimism we are seeing in markets. more than 40 million jobs are expected to have been lost in the past 2.5 months. that comes up at 8:30 this morning, one of the main things i am watching today. at 11:00, i am interested to see the eia crude oil inventory report, especially if early data shows an actual build in stockpiles going against what we had seen previously. said -- have newark from new york fed -- today we

have speeches from new york fed's williams. is the fed willing to go in backing asset prices as we face rocky months ahead? jonathan: i think tom knew what was coming, so tom took the day off. you missed the interview. they are thinking about it. i don't know if they are there yet, but that is the direction of travel, listening to him, listening to clarita. tom: i guess i have to explain why i was off. it was therapy, folks. , jon 7000 dow points ferro, i missed the march bottom. to be honest, i think i missed the june bottom as well. it was the only time the doctor could see me. jonathan: it must have hurt. tom, great to have you back. let's start the program this morning, shall we?

we can do that was evan brown of ubs asset management. let's start with a question i thick is on a lot of people's mind at the moment. it is clear the relationship between china and the united states is breaking down again. what is less clear is why this market is not picking up on it outside of the hang seng, outside of the chinese currency. what is your read on things right now? isn: i think the market taking a lot of these broader issues on hong kong, on technology, on capital flows, and separating them from trade. they see the hong kong issues as more regional and drawn out. rightly or wrongly, the view from the overall market is that as long as this phase i trade , it is notin place so much a global market issue. point,actually on that very interesting, that on friday

the u.s. trade representative and the u.s. to apartment of agriculture coming out with a that thetement, saying trade agreement is still going well. even in the context of china purchasing a lot fewer an agreed.al goods th so the administration is really trying to separate trade and technology from hong kong and the like. if that happens, i think the market will be able to hold that. tom: let me ask you a 60,000 foot question. you are multi-asset. where is the game right now in the multi of multi-asset? which part is where i can be comfortable being if i am trying to make a gain over the next 12 months? evan: if you are really trying to make a gain, i think it is buying some of the laggards here, buying some of the things where we are seeing genuine

policy change and where there are devaluations. i would start in europe. everyone has hated european banks forever, but i think we are seeing some meaningful policy changes out of europe with the recovery plan announced yesterday. obviously, this is going to come to get agreed upon, but the direction of travel is clear, and the signal for merkel for germany, the leader of europe going forward towards a fiscal union, is really important. we could see some rating there. also, people should start paying attention to japan. fiscal stimulus coming out of japan right now, and if we are looking at monetary and fiscal combination and the power that can create for an economy, we are not finally getting it from japan. we've had on the monetary side, but this strong on the fiscal side. so deep value opportunities there to pick up. lisa: i want to pick up on the

eu fiscal response we saw proposed. still facing some resistance probably from the frugal four. you write that the distributions skewed tor europe are the upside. how do you see that the current plan proposed will get past and bleed into the region? evan: in terms of distribution of risk, i was concerned about europe when that german court ruled against the ecb. i thick it scared merkel, too, and that is why we are seeing this change on the fiscal side. but i think where it is not so .uch priced is european banks italian equities, extremely cheap. i really think this is going to go a long way in people looking at the fiscal trajectory of italy.

obviously it is ugly, but just the signal that europe is saying, we have your back. the frugal four, they are putting up a fight, but honestly, they don't have that much leverage when you have the four main leading countries of europe, germany, france, italy, spain, behind this. their power in driving or slowing down this debate is probably saturated. jonathan: maybe i am a glass half-empty kind of guy, in which case, i am sorry, but how long have we been talking about this? maybe i've been conditioned by much of the last 10 years. there are still holdouts. let's say that they capitulate. the netherlands, austria come along with this whole plan. you've still got to wait until early next year for that capital to be deployed. every month matters right now. theave been arguing in united states about whether d.c. waits a month or two. europe won't be able to deploy this until the start of next year.

there's no question about this. the timeline of this is really quite something. evan, how fast can europe move? fast, unfortunately. nothing is easy in europe, and that is why we crucially are going to rely on the ecb to form a bridge over the course of the time before we can get things going. are notthat is why we saying necessarily jump all in on european assets right now because you are not going to see the speed you are seeing in japan. we are nervous about the u.s. not acting quickly enough. at least in europe, you have some better automatic stabilizers in the background than in the u.s. or perhaps some other regions, but the burden will definitely depend on the ecb ramping up its qe program and finding ways around these ongoing court challenges coming out of germany. it.: i love

nothing is easy in europe. nothing is particularly easy in the u.s. right now when it comes to reopening the economy, and that has been with the driving issues pushing stocks higher. how complicated is it when we talk about reopening at a time when people still don't know that much about the virus, the spread? where are you looking to find value amid this sort of risk on tilt, with reopening still very much unproven? evan: it is very tricky. we had the same kind of ,ncertainty that everyone does i think. we are obviously looking at all of the high-frequency data that google and apple and others are providing, showing activity gradually picking up. i think the market is liking that. they like to see things getting less bad, but clearly on a year-over-year basis, overall levels of activity are still quite depressed.

we are tracking it. we are not trying to make big predictions about it. clearly, we are seeing some improvement. it could stall out because, reopening or not, it comes down to whether people feel comfortable. do they feel safe going out? that psychological barrier is going to take a while to get through. as the private sector has this caution after a recession, especially dealing with an uncertain virus, you're going to ,eed to see on the fiscal side continued lending and support, and most importantly, state and local governments, which have been on the front lines of this crisis. jonathan: evan, great to catch up with you. we got to continue the conversation at a later date. evan brown of ubs asset management. it has been a dash for trash. the weaker parts of the equity

market have really picked up. it's pick out one name. royal caribbean is up about 25% in just two days. down hard on the year, but that is the story of the past beloved days. rotation out of the safer parts of the market to the much riskier parts. tom: i measured on one side street in manhattan, and it wasn't quite back to normal yesterday, but there is no question the traffic is really rapidly getting back to normal within daytime new york city. jonathan: big focus of this program, as is the situation in china. next up, we will be catching up with jonathan fenby on the next moves you can expect around the situation in hong kong. from new york city, good morning to you all. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg radio and bloomberg tv. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. lawmakers in china have defied a threat by president trump.

they approved a proposal for sweeping national security legislation aimed at hong kong. democracy advocates say the measure will curb essential freedoms in the city. the vote came a day after the u.s. declared hong kong was no longer at autonomous. it could lead president trump into imposing sanctions on china. the trump administration is reportedly taking aim at chinese students in the u.s. it plans to cancel the visas of chinese graduate students and researchers who have direct ties to universities affiliated with the chinese army. chinese students form the largest single foreign student population in the u.s. another sign that demand for oil is coming back in asia. --iners in the region are distressed cargoes referred to yet to load for a month or less. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in

more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ ofxi jinping is a new source -- a new sort of chinese dictator. he's been throwing china's

weight around in a way that is dangerous around the world, and i think he needs to be called out. jonathan: former hong kong governor chris patton some strong words earlier this morning. the situation in the markets, pretty calm. looking at the equity market before the bell in new york city, up about 0.1% on the s&p. we have been all over the place through much of this morning. on the 10 year treasury, 0.67%. no big moves to speak of in foreign-exchange. euro-dollar totally unchanged after yesterday's chinese currency weakness. arounddollar china at 7.16. quite clearly, things are escalating. we touched on this at the top of the program, we are waiting to see what the administration in the united states does next. right now, that is not clear. tom: it is really going to be interesting to see how mr.

pompeo and the president adapt and adjust to the reality that 24/7 is here. there are many good thinkers on this over the years. one of the greats has been jonathan fenby of ts lombard. he has put out a series of books on china, and one of them was a monograph, "will china dominate the 21st century?" jonathan fenby, will beijing dominate hong kong? fenby: certainly that is the way we are going. delegating some activity to the local government, but the national interest now predominates.

jonathan: there has to be an objective, and for much of the last several decades, the objective was to shape the chinese communist party. what is the objective now in washington? mr. fenby: the objective now is to accept growing friction with , and to try to move business away from china to undermined that economic political link which was built up at the end of the 1970's. this is actually, to my mind, reflected in china come over you've got this growing emphasis on self-reliance, on observing pressure from the united states, and as you were saying just a few moments ago, the question now is how trump moves on the basis of what mike pompeo gave us last night, saying hong kong

no longer has the degree of autonomy on which the relationship was based. talk about next steps. there's talk about the u.s. revoking hong kong's special trading status. we are even hearing some leaders of the protest movement in hong kong support this measure, but experts say this will actually hurt hong kong and the u.s. far more than china. what is the thinking there? mr. fenby: it is likely to hit hong kong more because hong kong's special position between the mainland of china and the rest of the world, particularly the united states, depends on that special status. if hong kongmoved, is subject to the same conditions as the rest of china, then hong kong will suffer. mark will be raised over the whole american relationship with hong kong.

so this is playing for some quite big stakes. jonathan: quite clearly, one of the big stakes of the commercial relationships that the chinese communist party has with the continent in europe. europe is trying to sit on the fence through all of this for much of the last several years. in your mind, have we approached that inflection point where europe can no longer sit on the fence and try to play both sides? mr. fenby: we are moving towards that, and the coronavirus crisis has pushed in that direction. you are getting european governments having second thoughts about huawei, for instance, including here in the think it will take a long time in europe. things always do. but there is a feeling that europe needs to reevaluate the relationship with china. this hasn't been made easier by the reluctance in europe to get on board with donald trump. europe doesn't know where the

,rump administration is going but i think there's a growing feeling in europe that they need to reevaluate their relationship with beijing. fearhan: there's a growing as well that what we are seeing is a more assertive dictator, a more assertive chinese leader in the last few weeks. what is happening on the border with india that you have some details on? sitting in new york, it is hard to get the right perspective on what is happening with china, not just in hong kong, but elsewhere, too. mr. fenby: there's a whole series of things happening at the moment. the south china sea, for instance. taiwan, hong kong, and the indian border fits into that. china, i think, is going to press its border frontier claims there, as well as elsewhere. we are getting china operating on quite a number of fronts at

the moment. but he quite knows how to deal with that, it seems. tonobody knows quite how deal with that, it seems. all of that appears to be to, to use the trumpian phrase, to make china great again. looking back on hong kong in 1997, it assumes a british response to this moment. how would you suggest or recommend the prime minister respond to what we see between washington and beijing? mr. fenby: the u.k. relationship with china over hong kong has always been a pretty difficult one.

britain still wants to go on trading with china, but britain now has to decide whether it stands by the joint declaration in the position chipped out it was and as a result of the 1997 handover agreement. it has to define much more clearly its own position there, but i don't think that britain should have any illusions about how much weight it bears in the present relationship. jonathan: i don't think anyone thinks we make it to 2047. lombard,fenby of ts great to catch up with you. we are going to catch up with the focus? tom: the question has to be the immediacy of hong kong, but the focus, and this is important, the president of the united states has appointed the first managing deputy director decidedly different from the

history of america at the imf. jonathan: we will catch up with geoffrey okamoto right here on bloomberg tv and on bloomberg radio. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz. equity futures up seven points on the s&p 500, positive around days of 3043 after two cyclical rotation. how sustainable is this? what gives it a little more durability? that will be a conversation a little later the program. treasury yields relatively unchanged. 0.68%. euro-dollar going absolutely nowhere. dollar-yen totally dead flat.

what has to find this whole period over the last several months has got to be the policy response worldwide. if you were bearish, i am edging people were converted by what we saw not just from the fed, the ecb, but from others, too. tom: that's true. of course, we've got jobless claims coming out at 8:30 that .ill be extraordinarily grim it is our simulcast on television and radio. lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro, and myself. it is a time where you just stop and speak to americans, confronting this policy had on. one of them is geoffrey okamoto out of pomona in computer science, and georgetown as well, and he has taken the position of first deputy managing director at the international monetary fund. wonderful to have you on. i must speak about the article

on you last week, he very different skill set you bring versus the heritage of the position for america. that is people with wall street , orrience like john lipsky maybe the people with the right pedigree of economics what your predecessor david lipton. you're going to be different. in what way will you be different as the first deputy managing director representing the interests of america? geoffrey: next, tom. it is great to be here this morning. i am enjoying the new format. i think it is no shock that i come with a different set of skills and a different background. thatarts from the position i have a lot of respect for my andecessors, knowing john having immense respect and can ship with david lipton -- and kinship with david lipton. i think what is critical is working together on these issues. we did not have a pandemic book

or -- a pandemic before we started in this role. we have been moving to build relationships across institutions in the multilateral framework, and also bilaterally with key countries and partners. that is what is going to be effective in not only responded to the health side of this, but also economics, which for some countries, is just as important or more important. ,om: you mentioned bilaterally the new relationship of president trump to the world. you are representing an administration that is decidedly not multilateral. georgieva has pushed back gai -- has pushed back against that. geoffrey: i think what the u.s. wants is an effective multilateral framework.

i am very proud to be in the slot i am in now, which is programmingke our or effective. this is a huge challenge. one thing we have had to deal with, as i think we all have in this crisis, is moved with incredible speed. . we were talking a bit about markets and market reactions, but some of the optimism in the market is reflected in the fact that institutions like ours have moved with incredible speed and at an incredible scale. that is unprecedented in our history. tom: the history of the international monetary fund is simple. they are there really is a crisis policymaker of last resort, and usually offer what are considered not draconian, but very strict terms to any country that is in real need. right now, a lot of countries don't want to deal with the former imf regime. can you recommend to the managing director that this

needs to be a kinder and gentler imf? geoffrey: i think the conversation we have been having with countries is this is not your father's or grandfather's imf. we are approaching the world in the context of this pandemic in a new way. a lot of that you can see in how we are provisioning facilities for emergency finance at this point in time. we are telling countries, we are very frank, spend what you have to at this point, but please keep the receipts. we will be holding countries accountable for this, but not second-guessing the decisions they have to make in terms of spending -- in terms of spending on critical health priorities and benefits. advise thell you managing director, and may be over the phone or a walk down to the hay adams, how will you advise the trump administration to deal with this issue in hong

kong? geoffrey: i think my role and our institution's role in this is to not involve too much in the geopolitics. one thing is for certain, that hong kong is an incredibly important financial and commercial trading hub, not just to the world, but also to china and the united states. series underpinned by a of policies that have been built up over time, whether it is a critical monetary authority, a strong central banking system. this is how we will see where hong kong is headed from here, and clearly the outlook is a little unclear at this point, or too early to judge. know,ne of the things we and this is for our radio listeners nationwide, and also television as well, we come to a point where we say, when is the next cash call on the united

states? how do you observe the physical structure of the imf right now? will you need to go to president trump and capitol hill looking for more resources? it's an interesting perspective. one way we look at it is a little bit different, which is we are entering this crisis anyer resourced than in prior crisis. we have $1 trillion in financial firepower that we are ready and able to deploy, that is being deployed in real-time today. right now, given some of the more pessimistic projections we have come up we think we have the sufficient resources we need to carry out our role in this. , we are encouraged by the good amount of international cooperation that has come behind some of our recent request for resources. for example, fundraising campaigns to help some of our poorest countries, so that is a good thing.

that bodes well for any future needs we may have. tom: one final question, if i make. this goes back to the heritage of the united states, and with council, but i will go back to the time of the great --y dornbusch of in my tea .i.t.m the difference in these crises is that we have much more of a floating reserve than we did in the 1950's and 1960's. give us your opinion of dollar strength or dollar weakness. which is most efficacious for america? geoffrey: i will let the president and the treasury secretary speak on where they think the dollar should be at any given point in time. i think what is important is the fed is doing all it can to support financial markets, both through monetary policy and some of its financing operations that

are forthcoming jointly with the treasury department. this is obviously -- we enter into this world, as you said, with flex a exchange rates. that allows flux about exchange rates to be part of the buffers that help countries weather this. for some can -- for some countries, this is the first time they are having to use these tools. so having the wealth of knowledge gets deployed on the ground to help countries in real-time. tom: thank you so much for joining us today. jonathan, lisa and i look forward to seeing you at the next actual imf meetings. we look forward to that. first deputyoto, managing director of the imf. jon, i tried to get us into the next annual meeting. i don't know where it is. be it is an arctica -- maybe it is in an arctica -- in

antarctica. jonathan: i imagine it will be zoom. i am not sure whether we will get together with the imf anytime soon. i did think it was interesting to question the role of the imf at a moment like this, where countries need grants and not loans. what is the role of the imf in a world like that? as you pointed out, i think it is advice. it is also coordination. i think we do need to read -- i do think we need to rethink the institutions we use around the world now. what does the united states and europe need to do? i think people would suggest the need to build out their sphere of influence, and i would suggest if you want to achieve that, you've got to rethink the institutions, the leverage to get that to happen. tom: not only leverage, but as to mentioned, the

bilateral versus block-ism, where the allies get together to take on the new rigidities of the communist party. that was certainly the primal scream from chris patton this morning. jonathan: lisa, youjonathan: have been talking about the rolling europe. europe is worried about the commercial ties with china. the chinese economy and the chinese commonest party. for that reason, they have tried to sit on the fence. as jonathan fenby pointed out, i think time is up. time is running out to be able to continue doing that. i don't think that is sustainable anymore. lisa: my question is how much pressure is washington going to put on europe to come to the table without that kind of collaboration? how much power can each have individually against china? big topic of conversation here on "bloomberg

surveillance." this is bloomberg come alive on bloomberg radio and bloomberg tv. next up on reopening in new york, we will be catching up with lieutenant governor kathy hochul. that is next, right here on "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president trump now faces a tough choice on china. lawmakers have approved a proposal for sweeping national security legislation aimed at hong kong. pro-democracy activists say it will limit essential freedoms in the city. president had already threatened to respond strongly to the move. president trump is preparing to strike back at twitter. he is angry because the social media platform slapped fact-check links on two of his tweets. the president will issue an executive order that could lead to a flurry of lawsuits against

tech giants. it would narrow the liability protections they have. citigroup bringing traders back to its london offices in a matter of weeks. bloomberg has learned that citi has told employees in its investment bank to expect to keep working from home. citi and other big banks sent workers home in march 2 stem the spread of coronavirus. borisrime minister johnson has rejected calls from his own party to fire dominic cummings. the advisor traveled 250 miles for his familyre while the country was in lockdown. nasa scrubbed yesterday's atnned launch at bad weather the kennedy space center. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by

bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> what i want to make sure is that as we reopen, we get it right. i don't think our economy could handle a second surge and shut

down. boston mayor marty walsh weighing in on a slow go approach for reopening. nothing slow go about this market. we count you down to the opening bell in new york. let me run you through the price action. positive seven points on the s&p 500. the areas ofs for this equity market that have been left well behind over the last couple of days. they pick up in rapid fashion area 3041 is where we are on the s&p 500. in the bond market, treasury at 0.68%. on theprice moves currency pairs. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. the focus, especially over the last couple of weeks for this

market, how quickly can we reopen, and how fast can we normalize. [no audio] jonathan: i believe we have some problems with tom keene's connection, so we will bring in our next guest. new york lieutenant governor kathy hochul coins is now. fantastic to catch up with you. can you talk to us about the process of reopening in various parts of new york, and what you are learning so far? lt. gov. hochul: we were able to reopen nine out of 10 regions of the state from long island yesterday come all the way up to the north country and buffalo. there is ae seen is sense of confidence starting to come back.

even if people aren't truly affected by phase one, people are very excited about phase two, which will start in some of our regions within a matter of days. we have been monitoring closely to make sure we didn't inadvertently create a hotspot that couldn't handle an outbreak. all of our drive decision-making, and we have now seen that we can manage this first phase of reopening, which allows us to speak about a broader opening in phase two, which would be all retail, getting back to a lot of our financial services. so we are getting there. really happy to report that this could have been july our august that we talked about this, so i think we are in a good place. are all hoping the

reopening happens quickly. mayor bill de blasio saying yesterday that new york city faces a budget deficit of $9 billion. d with theuomo has ple saying theyrnment, need to support the state of new york. how close are we to having essential services cut off due to these budget deficits? lt.-gov. hochul: those are exactly the consequences we are trying to avoid, which is why the governor has been beating this drum for weeks now. he got on a plane and went to washington to talk to the president about how there could be no national recovery if the state and local governments are not funded. we cannot do this on our own. this has been a national crisis, a federal disaster, and the states have taken it on the chin. they have had to spend an extra ordinary amount of money battling this, and the loss of revenue is unprecedented. so we are in a tough spot right now. the last thing we want to do is

to cut the people who have been there for us, so the federal government needs to be a lifeline. tom: nothing i have ever been there, the sucker republic at mikael's in manhattan is an example of those streets and stores shut down in manhattan. we are going to get a 20% plus --them amid rate in fifth 20% plus unemployment rate june 5. claims comings out. what is the urgency to get shops reopened under sound and sensible rules? lt.-gov. hochul: you actually hit on the balance we are trying to strike right there. we thought 100,000 deaths was high. well, we could double that. that is not the approach we are going to take. we are going to do it in a smart way, working with businesses. the state just announced a small business loan program to help

.he smaller guys but also, making sure that when we do open, we do it safely because no small business wants to be the site of an outbreak. it will ruin their life's work, going down the drain. i helped start small family businesses. this is what i did before i got into politics. city is known by its retail, its chops, its restaurants. we are not going to let them slide by and not come back without a fight. it has been tough, but we had to make these decisions to make sure that new yorkers literally stay alive. that, and ig out of am focused on the economic recovery of our state as much is the governor's. lose thosegoing to neighborhoods. but do it smart.

continue to wear your mask, socially distance. all of these shops will have to take extraordinary measures to make sure they are safe so people have the confidence that when they walk in, they won't walk out with the virus. go,than: before we let you i think a lot of people would like to know how high the bar is for a second locked down as many of these economies reopen. clearly, a lot of money has been invested and in building out health care capacity. do you think the bar is higher now for that reason? lt.-gov. hochul: yes i do. we were caught off guard. we had no early warning from the federal government that would helped us prepare. the scale of it was absolutely downplayed from the beginning, and the state of new york has had to pick up the pieces. withons brought the virus them during this vulnerable time, so we now know what it takes to manage a pandemic. i don't foresee that we would have to take drastic measures we had to undergo before.

i know it is tough, but keep wearing the masks when you are within six feet of people. we know how to stop the spread. we know how to ramp it up quickly. we don't want to face this again in the second wave, but we are realistic area i can't for see a situation where we would have the complete and utter lockdowns we are experiencing, because now we are ready. jonathan: tom, a lot of focus on healthy federal government operated through this, but let's talk about new york city as well. the mayor bill de blasio was going around in early march, telling people to get out on the town. we need to be very clear that mistakes were made all around. tom: mistakes were made all around, but i am looking at the here and now, and to me come of the world changes june 5 with an un-implement rate over 20%. all i know is my only observation in manhattan is we've got to get the stores open in a sound, sensible, and safeway.

jonathan: there's a lot of economic pain, and i think the new york economic governor feels that pain as well. from new york city this morning, good morning to you all. this is bloomberg. ♪ staying connected your way is easier than ever.

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>> it is hard enough to forecast where the economy is going to be going. forecasting output over the next several years is even harder. >> the u.s. soft market is very unusual. every other financial market is essentially pricing and something closer to a u. >> economic forecasts are hazardous at best, even more so now. >> this is "bloomberg tom,illance," with jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. ♪ tom: good morning, everyone.