>> it's hard enough to forecast where the economy will be going over the next several months or quarters. forecasting the next several years is even harder. >> this is not your father's or even your grandfather's imf. >> the most we can hope for out of the ecb is a pumping of the brakes and slowing down on china escalation. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ."

we are thrilled you are with us on bloomberg radio across this nation and worldwide, and on bloomberg television as well, and on a friday as we leap into june. we are looking at any number of topics. one of the great things we know is the twitter uproar, and then the tragedy we see in minneapolis, and then china front and center. president's press conference, believed to be this afternoon. jonathan: and what is the focus of that news conference going to be? it is going to be -- it is supposed to be on china, but i imagine we get distracted by domestic issues quickly. we have rebuilt this risk appetite in the more cyclical areas of this market in the last couple of weeks. it comes at a time when tension between china and the united states is building. i think that is a really interesting compare and contrast are that 60 minutes. tom: for our global wall street audience on television, on

radio, there's no question it is a reset for june. many people thought this pandemic would be over in june. --, but it is what research item will you look for this weekend? what is the theme you will be studying this weekend? lisa: i think you nailed it when you honed in on the idea of yield curve control, and how much would the fed decide where to put that. also, how is the fed going to launch the next programs it has lined up, the main street lending, as well as lending to municipalities. . honestly come up bonds have been so calm and you have seen money flow into credit. my question is, when does the fed put run out? when do the bankruptcies overrun a strong bullish tilt? tom: anyone that knows us knows where i am on the yield curve

told. , how far off the yield curve does yield curve control? havehan: in japan, it goes 10 years. i would be surprised if the united states does the same thing. the federal reserve is going to turn around and tell us they will keep rates low for several years. basically, they are telling you that the fed funds rate and the yield curve should be in line with fed funds. dramatichink it is as as it sounds if that is the way it goes because the market has already priced for that. tom: it will be fascinating, to say the least. we've had great conversations throughout the morning. let's get started with mark mccormick, out of td bank in toronto. get to euroants to and the other noise out there. i want to reaffirm your dollar

call into june. what is it? mark: we are still broadly bullish on the u.s. dollar, both in g10 and emerging markets. we think there's way too much optimism priced into the global economy. there's a lot of focus on the reopening and the effect that can have on businesses, and optimism across the global economy. we look at dollar end of the risk metrics like global indicators,inst our and what we see is a massive disconnect between sentiment and the actual hardline data which we are much more focused on. for us, we are still bullish the dollar right now, regardless of what we have seen in europe, largely because the dollar should be a reflection of the global economy rather than the optimism around some of the softer measures like reopening status. argument jonathan: -- the

argument people would make -- jonathan: the argument people would make is that you move to a more cyclical story. what is the pushback? mark: i think part of it has to do with is there a premium in some of these currencies. a big part of the dollar weakness we have seen is really about positioning. our broad-based positioning metrics did show that the dollar was long, so clearly there is positioning, although people have been pushed the wrong way. people have been pushed out of these positions. -- but is there value in trying to push the dollar narrative any further? what our models are telling us is that the dollar is trading at a bit of a discount right now on some of the short-term metrics, so i think to drive the bullish risk story, one, we need to global growth story to comply. seek the global

growth story move in the right direction. largely, they are trading at a massive premium to global growth. one side of that, if you look at msci world, it is trading at a 15% premium to the level implied by our global growth indicators. one and atwoto a -- at a 1.5 to two times implication. i think it is something the market is trying to work around now. we have looked at these back testing somatic regime tools. can we trade between deficit? 20 deficit,d the you have lost money because you have been short the dollar, and the dollar has basically redefined the trend of whether or not you want to be short and the currency. i do think this will matter in the back half of the year. largely, i think where the

deficits are going to matter the most is for currencies like sterling and the canadian dollar. they don't have the reserve status in the u.s. dollar. they don't have to drive and the innovation that comes from u.s. corporations and the ability to capture global equity flows. so sterling to me is really one of the things you want to keep your eye on for the twin deficit story, largely because fundamental models tell you we aroundbe trading 120, but also because we see a current account deficit that needs to be funded. so we could trade the dollar from my twin deficit story, but i think right now, your to currencies you need to focus on is cad and sterling weakness. aboutan: let's talk sterling. it has been vicious the last few years. are you saying the downside is

1.20, or could we get back to the crazy levels we saw months ago? mark: we have been short cable, so we are looking for a move to $1.18. i think the headwinds are just building. the headaches are building in general. if you think about where the narrative has gone, but we have seen across our models is the market has kind of moved into this short position on cable. we do see a bit of a discount in cable pricing, but that makes sense even the change in the fundamentals. we have one country that seems to be moving towards negative interest rates. we have potential for a no deal brexit that seems to be becoming the baseline scenario. we also have some of these other fundamental problems. but i think the way you want to think about it is there's positive news coming out of europe, but not in the u.k. anything about how the market is going to trade this, this could be eurosterling to $.93, but most likely cable back down to $1.20. i would into size we are still trying to push towards $1.18.

in this isde we have the u.k. seems to be lighting on the lockdown and some of the reopening side of things. yes? tom: i just want to say to our global wall street must listen. for the rest of you, where you are like, what is he talking about, these are hugely bold outlier statements i mr. mccormick versus much of consensus right now. what does consensus get wrong? is it all hinged on what germany and france are going to do in europe? is there one little disappointment that gets these many calls to shift td way?ities' lot: the euro should care a about global growth. when we overlay our growth

tools, it still tells us it should be around 107. you also have to thing about the correlations. it is like the anti-dollar trade. so we are fundamentally bearish -- fundamentally bullish euro. we have probably been more bullish than consensus, but i don't think it is a tactical trading strategy to be bullish right now, largely because we don't see these discounts that everyone seems to be focused on. short positioning is not a thing we are catching in our models. we are seeing euro is long at a very neutral level. so i think the most important part to think about the euro is this move we have seen on the euro zone recovery fund is huge, and it could be a game changer, but it is also a process that will take months. needs it haslutely

built in the last month. mark, always great to catch up with the team send our best. we had two people lineup and pushback against the euro optimism. story anduying the optimism out of the continent. tom: what is interesting within this, it is the nuance of fragility almost in the call to a stronger euro, where people are saying we've got to observe that, maybe it is true, but they really don't want to commit to it, do they? is the, and it difference between understanding the sentiment shift and the fundamentals. quite clearly, there has been a shift in the conversation in europe. on the fundamentals, even if they get together and all support, this fiscal stimulus will not be deployed until early

2021. that is a lifetime away in an environment like this one. tom: again, i am going to go back to the labor economy it talking about. is a labor crisis right now, and that dialogue is going to change next friday. tom: couldn't -- jonathan: couldn't agree more. next up on bloomberg radio on bloomberg tv, we will catch up with myron brilliant of the u.s. chamber of commerce. that is right up next here on "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: a third night of -- violencer the from protests over the death of george floyd. on twitter, president trump

blasted the mayor of minneapolis , called the rioters thugs, and threatened to send in the national guard. twitter said it violated its raw's about qualifying violence, hours after the president signed an executive order seek to -- order seeking to weaken liabilities for tech companies. the president says he is not happy with regulations that would cut freedoms in hong kong. that opens the door for the president to impose penalties. they could take a range of actions, including revoking hong kong's special trading status. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by

bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> the fed actually hasn't done a lot in the credit markets all, but there is a sense that the fed will be there for purchasing

reasons, or to provide for markets to actually function effectively. jonathan: rick rieder of blackrock weighing in on the situation in credit. what a year it has been. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." i won't go to a market tech i just want to go to a stat. in around 100 nine days so far in 2020, we have had $1 trillion of u.s. investment grade credit issued. absolutely unbelievable. and largely because the fed has helped keep the door wide open for these companies to issue a heck of a lot of debt and a short amount of time. times, andy unusual again, we are going to see this with michael mckee important interview with loretta mester, coming up here in a bit. i believe you are involved in that. that will be the discussion on the balance sheet. it is not only about the american consumer. it has been a huge focus on that

with the pandemic, but also about american business. what is so important about the u.s. chamber of commerce, which i guess is a lobbying group, is its founding in 1908 was an international delegation to japan. at the time, that was extraordinary. and then president taft really driving forward the founding of the chamber to the modern day of this controversy and that, but also the representation of business abroad. ofon brilliant is head international affairs for the chamber, and he joins us now. let's say you and the crew were to get on cathay pacific tonight , and monday morning you are in hong kong or in beijing to bring a business delegation in. it is not going to be a normal reading, is it? alive when thet

chamber of commerce was created by president taft, but i can onll you that are missi hasn't changed. we have tremendous interest in selling and exporting around the world, and hong kong has been an important gateway to china and to asia, and we do a fair amount of business, $67 billion of trade investment between hong kong and the united states. so i would be very concerned about hong kong's future. we issued a statement earlier in the week about this. is really important. we've got a press conference coming up with the president this afternoon. if you've got somebody's ear, what would you say to them about how to handle this exceptionally delicate time? myron: the china-u.s. relationship has never been more complex. and i have been involved in it for about 30 years area i was there lobbying for china's

acceptance into the wto, getting ready -- getting rid of the status in the 1990's area but china/u.s. relations are much more important on the national security front and on economic terms as well. so what i would be saying is that i think china does need to have a response to the u.s. government. but there's been action taken by the chinese government that woodes the one country, t systems that has served hong kong well as a financial hub, a rules-based economy, and i think it serves china's interest well, and action to undertake this new security law adds to a plethora of issues already in the relationship that are complex and challenging, from technology to trade, to hong kong, human

rights, and other issues as well. lisa: uncertainty is the key word, and that was the prevailing sentiment among businesses and c-suite's when we saw trade tensions ramping up between the u.s. and china. now there's a question over whether the phase i deal is off the table come whether we are going to see the u.s. take azure's that increase sanctions or tariffs on china. how much are you worried about that uncertainty, that lack of clarity on the u.s. response and what china will do in retaliation on u.s. businesses? we very much supported the u.s. administration's effort to address fair trade actions through a trade negotiation. there were some issues not addressed in phase one like subsidies and state owned

enterprises, etc. weever, we belie the -- believe it provided some stability. china has not provided all of its obligations under the agreement. this will be another issue. but i think that the negotiations between china and the united states on the trade front has been, to some extent, isolated from the broader political challenges in the relationship, and that is a good and. we want to see china and united states work through these issues because it is better for the global economy. but this is an issue that has come to the forefront because it has been a very difficult environment with covid-19. the pandemic has created a challenge for china to purchase all of the goods it should be purchasing from the united states, and i think they have been a little slow in implementing some of their demands around services.

i think the phase i agreement is something we support forcefully. we have provided a lot of input to our government. but that is the floor. it is not a ceiling on this. there's a lot more to be done to improve the relationship between china and the united states, and we will continue to be advocates on that front. jonathan: myron brilliant, we look forward to continuing that conversation. situation for me. we can't really -- here is the situation for me. we can't really stress test the phase i trade deal. the real test will be when we reopen. if these continue to boil over, does china follow through on the commitments from the middle of january? that is the real test over the next several months. tom: i totally agree, but you know what i did yesterday? i got off of that -- i got on that fancy google map and look across the causeway in hong

kong, with all of the banks lined up. i am looking at the mandarin hotel, and right down the street, two buildings down the street is jp morgan. how do the big banks react to this? how do they lobby washington? what do they do in hong kong to advance their plans over the year?ne week or one jonathan: u.s. really serious questions, but my mind starts to wander. is that what you do in the mapsnoon, sit with google and go to places like hong kong? tom: i do. lisa knows i do this. you get google maps out and check things out, right? honest,ve got to be that is not how i spend my wikipedia, looking at maps of hong kong, but i appreciate it. jonathan: i think tom is just

at aiscent about the bars hotel in hong kong. he can tell us about that another time. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg radio and on tv.

,onathan: from new york city this is "bloomberg surveillance." we are live on bloomberg radio and tv. , i'mside tom keene jonathan ferro together with lisa abramowicz. on the session, we are -10 point, down .33%. on the s&p the week 500 on the shortened trading week. on the month, up about 4%. in the bond market, the shape of things as follows. yield starting to push higher over last few weeks. today yields come back in. down three basis points on the 10 year to 0.66%. in foreign-exchange, we have gone on and on about this. it has been the story of the last couple of weeks. euro-dollar through 1.11 and positive .5%.

optimism starting to build a little bit more this week. tom: no question. we will continue the discussion through the day and well into next week. now, i always go back to the fabulous interview with jeff bezos. , with hisnstein efforts at bloomberg to speak to people readily and at length about the sensitive issues of their business. mr. rubenstein with the carlyle group as well. well-timed with the leadership of youtube. i find people glued to the product, glued to youtube, but there are real issues like the twitter upset of the morning with the president. there are real issues how youtube will police itself. what did you learn? david: youtube, when i talk to the ceo yesterday, she was the

garage to rented her larry page when they were starting the company and she became the 16th employee, and later, she recommended they buy a company called youtube and now head -- now it has become a behemoth. it was then -- it was a knock you -- it was an awkward situation because we do not know exactly what president trump's executive order said. she said they do the best they can to police -- she did not use the word police, but if something it is inaccurate on youtube they try to take it down. hundreds of people watch what is going on on youtube so they can watch what is wrong or dangerous. tom: i looked at the time we are in with the invention of this new media property. you know the valuations being

put on these properties. my question of the morning, which i say to you with great respect for your financing of all of this. are these things news organizations? are youtube, twitter, and facebook a news organization to david rubenstein? david: nothing rivals bloomberg as a news organization. there is no doubt that many people, particularly younger people than me get their news from youtube, from twitter, from facebook, in ways i would've found surprising. i by the newspapers every day. i still physically by them and read the hard copy. very few people do, none of my children do. people get the news from these other sources, though for many people youtube probably provides more news for people under 30 than the new york times for the washington post or the wall street journal. they are news organizations in that sense.

lisa: the idea of leadership has an interesting meeting -- meaning, particularly as the twitter spat with president trump heats up. we see twitter punished in the stock market for their actions, facebook rewarded for not taking action. how do you as an investor or a watcher view leadership in this capacity. where does the responsibility lie? with society or with the bottom line? david: two points. clearly the market does not like controversy. if you are in a spat with the president of the united states, it is probably not going to help your stock. if you're saying good thing about the president of the united states in this context, maybe it does not hurt your stock, it may help your stock. i think there is a responsibility of all of the organizations that have this kind of dissemination of

information to try to be reasonably accurate. you do not want censorship, but want people to make sure they do not watch youtube or facebook and see something inflammatory or anti-semitic or deal with racial overtones. it is a tough job and i would not want to be one of the people who has to figure out what is appropriate and what is not appropriate. as we go forward as an investor, more and more value will accrete to these type of organizations because that is where people are getting their news. jonathan: you recall that video that leak out on facebook a number of months ago with mark zuckerberg talking about senator warren saying they are prepared to go to the mat if they try to break up the company. speak to the leadership of the tech firms. can you speak to the kind of things they are worried about? the things that keep them up at night, the things that scare them. rogers, the famous

humorist in the 1930's, used to say the country is never safe when congress is in session. people in silicon valley are always worried congress or the ministration will do something. as we have learned in the microsoft lawsuit, these things take a long time to get done. it is not that easy to break these companies up. on the other hand, at&t was broken up and stared gregorio was broken up -- and standard oil was broken up many years ago. i did not see these companies being broken up but they might change the way they operate, and they are certainly spending more time in washington. an open question on a friday as we stagger into june with this pandemic. we are seeing a massive economic contraction like the 1930's. the mellon family was hugely charitable in washington a lifetime ago. will we see the combinations and transactions that lead to

combinations because of this economic depression like we saw in the 1930's? will we see one big roll up? david: i do not know that we will see that, but i do think we will find more and more pressure being put on the wealthiest people in the united states to give back to society. many of them are doing that. more and more philanthropy will be required to meet the gaps government can no longer meet. government will not have the resources where the budget to do all the things it has done over the last couple of years. more and more philanthropy will be expected of these wealthy from auals who benefited lot of the increase in value. i think you will see more and more pressure for people to do more where government cannot do it. remember we are running big deficits and big debt and i think the government will not be able to pay for all of the things it has been paying for. jonathan: david, always great to get your perspective. thank you for joining us this morning.

i want to talk about this data quickly. lisa, i know you picked up on a similar story. consumer spending plunging. what has been an interesting quirk is in the payrolls report, personal income picking up at a time you would expect them to be plunging. there are several reasons for that. let's talk about them. lisa: the idea is the enhanced unemployment benefits increased the take-home pay of a number of individuals. people have talked about this. very controversial. people trying to cast it in political terms. it is the fact you saw personal incomes -- personal incomes rise 10.5% in this data that was just released. to me that is fascinating. i am wondering when we will see that in the spending, which we have not seen yet. at some point that does provide a support to the economy. jonathan: let's bring in bloombergs michael mckee who can weigh more on the data. we saw the payrolls report

pickup for a different reason. personal income picking up for another reason. has a shape your thoughts on the economy and the recovery? michael: it tells you how dependent the american people were on government handouts during april. we saw government transfer payments to individuals rise 89.5% during the month. that is where the increase comes. 8%es and salaries fell during the month. the money that was out there came from the government at this point. as for the spending, the savings rate went up 33%. people put the money in the bank, which is why we are not seeing big spending numbers. it tells you how bad things were during the month. it does not give unification of where we will go from here in may. -- indication of where we will go in may. tom: i would suggest this interview with a gentle lady cleveland is important.

you and jonathan ferro will speak to dr. master at 9:50 -- at 9:15.r tell us why it matters. michael: the fed has to decide if it will put a floor under the economy or go beyond that and start stimulating. that is an important question. there meeting is coming up june 10. this is last day before the fed blackout. we will hear from loretta mester later and hear from jay powell and get an idea what they are thinking. that will matter to people in the markets. are: i am wondering, we seeing an increase in incomes, decline in personal spending, how noisy is this data? we spoke about this yesterday with the jobless claims and the idea of how things are tabulated. how much can we read into this? michael: in general you can accept the numbers. the commerce department put a note in saying it is hard to separate out the impact of covid

from the impact of everything else that happens in the economy. you have to take the numbers at face value, even if they are not completely correct, and you have to wonder about the wage and salary numbers how many companies were reporting, you know the government figures are accurate in terms of transfer payments. you know we were relying heavily on government support during the month. we hope we can get more participation from independent companies as the months go on and we continue to gather the data. jonathan: michael mckee, great to catch up with you. we will see you in 35 minutes. tom, we did ask if you could be part of that interview, and messages andned said not if he asks about yield curve control. we know how angry it is. it will be just mike and me. mostel: she is may be the prodigious mathematical ability

of the presidents and the governors. i will tell you that if anybody knows the dynamics of yield curve control, it will be loretta mester. jonathan: cannot agree more. looking forward to the conversation. around nine: 15 eastern on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. opening bell around 50 minutes away. we are -.4%. from new york alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro together with lisa abramowicz. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: there was a third night of violence in minneapolis over the death of george floyd, a black man in police custody. hundreds of people protested and set fire to police station. president trump tweeted the demonstrators were "thugs" and threatened to send an arms troops. that led to twitter flagging the troop -- flagging the tweet saying it glorified violence.

that was just hours after the president signed an executive order targeting twitter. the trump administration warns china will be held accountable for the security law that would curb freedom and hong kong. the president plans to announce his response today. from imposing modest sanctions to imposing the special trade relationship hong kong has with u.s.. citizenshipl offer to hong kong residents unless china backs down. have who could be eligible british national overseas passports. currently they are only allowed to come to the u.k. for six months. it is a symbolic victory for president trump. washington, d.c. starts to reopen today to give the president a chance to demonstrate that the country is getting back to normal. washington is still one of the worst hotspots in the nation for the coronavirus, but the city is relaxing the stay-at-home order because it met the goal of a 14 day decline in community spread of the illness.

global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. . am ritika gupta this is bloomberg. ♪

>> there been an action taken by the chinese government that it is an encroachment of the one country, two systems approach

that served hong kong well. it served hong kong as an international community. i think it served china's interests well. by china totaken adopt a new national security law undermines that confident. jonathan: myron brilliant of the u.s. chamber of commerce weighing in on a huge issue for us as we look forward to a news conference with united states president later today. still no time for that address, no scheduled time whatsoever. as soon as we get it we will bring it to you on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene i'm jonathan ferro. futures down 17 points in the s&p 500. closing out the week later after push higher over last week and month in may. equity futures down .5% later i will step away and get ready for the tv show through the opening bell. on the tv show and radio will be catching up with the cleveland fed president loretta mester and

the questions have to be on the next steps and forward guidance. looking forward to doing that interview with our friend and colleague michael mckee. michael: it is forward -- tom: it is forward guidance. i will let you go, but i want to tell you this is an important interview to reaffirm the dynamics we have heard from the vice chairman and even the chairman and even the important john williams interview. right now we will do something we have avoided this morning. i'm a recovery in oil. you may remember before make lisa abramowicz put four barrels of oil in her living room. they paid her to do it. how are those barrels of oil doing? lisa: i've been slowly selling them. the boys were complaining about the fumes, although they are excited about the profits we are taking right now. michael: soap -- tom: substantial profits. she triple leverage that puppy.

will kennedy can do the math. he drives all of our energy and commodities reporting at bloomberg. an open question to begin the week and begin june. what is the number one theme or thing you are watching of $30 brent in terms of will it go up or will it go down? what matters most to will kennedy? will: the speed of the u.s. economy. we have a tale of two oil markets. we have china, where the oil market is back broadly to where it was before the pandemic started with the exception of jack bill, the market -- of jet fuel, the market is strong. in may. it will get nervous about the u.s. recovery. the numbers from memorial day weekend were driving us down.

lisa: so we have these dueling issues. on the one hand we have covid-19 and the fact people were not as mobile as they were in the past. we saw that with inventories in the u.s. building for the first time in three weeks. then you have the u.s./china tensions that could weigh on a global growth in global trade when things do pick up later in the year. what are you looking at right now as the dominant factor to drive the price of oil in the upcoming months? will: the china tensions are clearly important. that can be a big drag on oil market growth. the other side is supply. as we move forward into june, we have important opec meeting, the first since the historic opec-plus plus deal to curb local production by 10% or more. it'll be interesting to see how the saudis and the russians come

out on that meeting. the indications are the saudi's want to keep supply as possible and russia like to be easing off the supply cuts so they would be more skeptical. that is one issue. also on supply, what happens in the shale patch? , there it be some wells that have been closed down that comes back. people do not know what the treasury is for u.s. production as well as u.s. demand. the demand question in the u.s. of the rest of the world, i think the supply issues will come into the focus in june. lisa: from the floor where tom keene purchase he can see all of the oil tankers carefully waiting for the prices to increase. how much will that dampen potential price increases going forward, just the fact there is so much supply waiting to come back online at storage facilities? will: is admin extremely

important -- it is an extremely important point. there is a huge amount on tankers, a lot of it in tanks on shore. that will put a brake on any sustained recovery because anytime you get an uptick in demand, and uptick in prices there is a huge group oil-rich traders are able to trade on. that will put a cap on any sustained recovery. ,s spectacular as may has been i think further increases will .e harder to achieve g tom: what is the best price for saudi arabia? where they want oil to be. do not tell me higher. will: there are numbers i will give you. they want to balance their budget which many peg at $80 a barrel. i do not think they think that is realistic. they probably think somewhere in

this market towards $50 allows them to avoid the worst of the economic problems they are facing with low oil prices by being balanced ok'd of the global economy. they are very conscious of having to come through this crisis not to be the people who upset the global economy. cold,o hot, not too probably something around $50 or higher. whether they can get there is another question. tom: of course. will kennedy, thank you so much. in charge of energy and commodity coverage for all of our bloomberg news platforms. lisa, in one week we will be recovering from the unemployment rate, and it is an extraordinary number. i'll be fascinating this weekend to see the tweets all of the economic houses make of their guesstimates above 20%. lisa: i was struck by the fact that jim of the st. louis fed is saying he thinks the

unemployment rate could end the year below 10%, a v-shaped recovery gaining steam. honestly, we are not seeing that in the data. i think today's data we got showing personal incomes rose 10.5% in april will be a talking point for a lot of people. at what point will the increase to unemployment benefits trickle into the economy and help support that recovery? tom: i do not see it. i think it is an artifact of huge differences in hewitt's unemployed as well leading -- in who is unemployed leading to those aberrations. it will spread out overdose go to three months. it has been an extraordinary week. we thank all of you for your great interest in this simulcast. it has been an interesting experiment. jonathan and i were holed up in a clue in davos and we started talking about it over a beverage of his choice, and over that beer we said maybe we can do this. it has been an interesting

launch to this experiment that weeksl hone in the coming , hopefully with your good feedback. for lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro, i am tom keene. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ staying connected your way is easier than ever.

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our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. "the countdown to the open starts right now." 30 minutes from the opening bell. equity futures still lower on the day. -.5%. upon the week, positive on the month. an interesting moment for this market as cyclical appetites appears and we built on it over the last several weeks. yields lower in the bond market. down three basis points to 0.66%. in foreign exchange, the story of the moment. a weaker dollar and a stronger euro. euro-dollar up .4%. that is the price action. here is your big issue. three names. hong kong, the united states, and china. >> it is hard to see how hong kong can remain a financial hub. >> we should all be speaking out against that security act, not just united states but people around the