tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg June 1, 2020 8:00am-9:00am EDT
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a quick to imagine that -- it is hard to imagine that we see a quick v-shaped recovery. >> i think the best we can hope for out of china is slowing -- out of washington is slowing down china escalation. >> forecasting what output will be in the next several years is even harder. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. our simulcast to you across this nation and around the world. we say good morning on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television as well.
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exceptionally good guests this hour, and we will begin with a moment. haass in an extraordinary place we are in right now, waking up to the imagery of a darkened white house. the president choosing not to speak to the nation as wasn't dissipated last night. to the north across lafayette , a boarded hay adams. a fire in the historic st. john's episcopal church, the church of the presidents. pew 54 is where they sit, although lincoln sat quietly in the back. the protestsct to in continental europe. your thoughts on this file and we can. jonathan: i don't think anyone needs my personal thought, not from a journalist who's barely left his apartment in the last three months. i don't think there's much value
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protests in the europe in the united states. there's a deep history in the united states. the plea unsettling to see the equity market emotionless against the backdrop of the weekend. commentt uncomfortable beautifully, absolutely nails it. alm iscomfortable c also in the fixed income space. it has been surreal, all of the eight by institutions including the fed. what do you read about the calm of the bond market as we begin to? -- as we begin june? lisa: there's a real uncomfortable calm, to borrow into term, with the bid speculative grade credit.
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i want to go back to something jon was talking about earlier. how much does the fed can trip income inequality -- the fed contribute to income inequality? if they hadn't done anything, it would have been potentially catastrophic for the economy. that said, the fact of the uncomfortable calm is leaving people with more assets, more more assets, more wealth, and leaving other people behind. tom: we will set you up for the week as well. quickly, without question the hallmark report of week will be the friday jobs -- will be the friday jobs report. jonathan: that is going to tell a very distorted picture of what is actually happening in the labor market. market, and i borrowed that
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phrase i think, that uncomfortable calm, this market is very focused on the cyclical recovery as we reopen. but it is still unsettling to see the events of the weekend do absolutely nothing to shape risk appetite were investor appetite whatsoever on a morning like this morning. thrilled to tom: bring you right now on "bloomberg surveillance" richard haass. he and i have the memories of the late vietnam or. -- vietnam war. far more important than that, we have crystal clear memories of 1968 -- off 1867, 1967, 1968. i go back to the rochester riots of 1964. how different is this from what we remember of our youth? richard: it is different, and it is different in some worrisome
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ways. in 1968, you had some awful things in terms of assassinations and the rest. in 1970, you had kent state. what is different about this is what you were just discussing, the backdrop of a public health crisis that has claimed the lives of well over 100,000 americans. we don't know how many more are coming down the road. against 20%, 25% unemployment. it is a combination of physical threat, economic threat, political division and violence. it is a combination of the three that has got to have people worried about where this country is and where it is heading. you and i room for the speech -- you and irene, the speech of lbj. it was widely expected the president would speak last night. he and his advisers decided not to. hehard: it seems to me
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should only speak if he's got something healing and reassuring that talks about not just mr. floyd, but the lessons that need to be learned and applied about policing. he also needs to address public health concerns, economic concerns. essentially, he has to step up to the moment, stop the divisive tweets, stop the personal attacks. he should only speak if he is willing and able to rise to the occasion. but if he wants to use the occasion for political purposes, or to deflect or attack, essentially less is more. he should continue to stay inside the white house. lisa: i am wondering if you pair what we are seeing in terms of domestic unrest with president trump withdrawing from the who on friday, something that has evaporated from new cycle, i am wondering if you can compare domestic unrest with u.s. isolationism. feedbackthat feedback
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onto the united states as a leader? richard: we haven't been pushed out of their leadership role of the last 75 years. we have taken ourselves out of it. we have withdrawn from more arrangements, agreements, institutions that i can count. you have an abdication of leadership, but on top of that, you have the example we are setting for the world of incompetence and ineptness in dealing with the pandemic. we are seeing this violence. we are seeing violent police activity, as well as violence on the part of some of those who are protesting. -- i part of foreign is will put it in another way. one is what your leaders do. the president has basically said we are going to withdraw. the other part is leadership is
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what you do. this is hardly an example anyone would want to implement. this is about as bad as it gets. jonathan: good to have you with us. i haven't gotten through the whole of the new book just yet, but if there is a chapter in their on hegemonic power, have we ever had a reluctant hegemon that just steps away? richard: no. one of my previous books was "alled "the reluctant sheriff, and i use that to apply to a previous president, but it applies much more to this one. it voluntarily stepped down not because of circumstances, but because of choice. britain was forced to back office leadership role, it essentially was forced. it didn't have the resources anymore. it was too small of a country to sustain that role. this is voluntary. what is so worrisome to me, it is not as though we are stepping back, having put something better in place.
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lead to mystic situation, it were mines me of the health care situation -- the two parallel the domestic me of the it reminds health care situation. we repealed but did not replace. jonathan: a lot of people like yourself -- and i am not saying these are your thoughts -- feel that maybe the world pulls back into two spheres of influence, with china at the center of one and the united states at the center of the other. is that something you can see happening? what do we need to see that come around? richard: i wouldn't want to see it happen by any means because china represents a model i would hardly want to see spread widely, in terms of its authoritarianism at home and given much of its modern history. i think a more likely alternative to a u.s. led world is a nobody led world, a world
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of greater unraveling, of greater violence, of a greater -- greater gap between problems and responses. the united states working with others, and including china, to deal with everything from proliferation to terrorism to climate change to public health to regulate the behavior in cyberspace and so on and so on, that to me is going to define the 21st century. i would say that after two decades, we are not off to a good start. as these distractions mount with respect to u.s.-china trade tensions and domestic unrest, what is the increasing risk of some sort of infiltration by bad actors to the united states that go undetected? richard: we have probably already had infiltration through cyberspace. i think that is the biggest one. i am more worried about some
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i will go to matt bennett, who helped president clinton years ago, in it is just not the right time. i don't buy it. in these absolutely unique times, i have been thunderstruck at the lack of visibility of the vice president, full disclosure. jonathan: equity futures positive by 2% -- by two points come up about 0.1%. good morning to you all. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. there were more violent protests across the u.s. tens of thousands of people took to the streets in peaceful demonstrations against the killing of a black man, george floyd. was overshadowed by violence from new york to los angeles. stores were looted in more than 20 cities. several thousand now snow guard troops have been deployed -- thousand national guard troops
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have been deployed. the trade deal between china and the u.s. is in jeopardy. the chinese government has halted purchases of some american far goods -- american farm goods, including soybeans. aging is evaluating the escalation of tensions with the u.s. over hong kong. goldman sachs says the u.s. labor market is showing early signs of recovery. goldman points to a drop in continued jobless claims, especially in states that reopened earlier than others. at expected -- it expected unemployment to reach its peak this month. now it believes the worst place last month at 22%. u.k. government reportedly planning and economic stimulus package in july, according to the "financial times." proposals were said to include spending on training and infrastructure. the british economy could shrink 25% this quarter. that would be the deepest drop in more than three centuries.
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jonathan: ian bremmer of the eurasia group on the situation in hong kong and the tension between the u.s. and china. you could throw a dart on the map of the world right now and you would find some pretty much everywhere. in this market, you won't find much tension. equities unchanged on the s&p 500. outside of that, and the bond market, treasury yields the 10 year up by a rowdy basis point and change to 0.67%. in foreign-exchange, touching on the story of the last couple of weeks, the dollar weaker, euro stronger. euro-dollar up by 0.1% in some performance on the aussie. a key week ahead not just politically speaking, but the data front and center as well. it concludes with payrolls friday. tom: it is going to be amazing. i know you want to talk to our next guest about pmi and some of those dynamics. ethan harris with us, and we welcome all of you on radio and television world wide.
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head of economic research for bank of america. dr. harris, i want to go back to your book on ben bernanke of ages and ages ago. i believe in your book, there was somewhat conventional economics. that is out the door. if you were to write a book right now on jay powell's fed, how would you tackle the can but annoy economics of the moment -- the conventional economics of the moment? ethan: the super crisis playbook playing out, it is not completely new. we saw the dead kind of experiment with some incredibly radical policies back in 2008, has kind ofwell taken that to a new level. it is crisis management. it is not totally unprecedented, but the scale here is something we have never seen before. jonathan: let's talk about --lisa: let's talk about the data we have been seeing.
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goldman sachs upgrading their expectation for stocks, saying the jobless data actually confirms a view that is more optimistic and they were previously expecting. are we expecting something that resembles more of a v-shaped recovery in the economy than accounted for?ly ethan: i don't think so. we are going to bounce off some awful numbers here. we think the unemployment rate hits 19%. that is partially temporary due to the shutdowns, and that data is already a couple of weeks old, so we are going to see the unemployment rate come back on again, but what is it going to come down to? it is probably going to be above 10% at year-end, which is where we were at the worst of the 2008/2009 recession. a v-shaped recovery, this is a funny v, where the left-hand side plunges, and on the right-hand side you go halfway
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up. so i don't think we are seeing v-shaped numbers right now. onathan: the market focused the sequential improvement as you go from shut down to reopening. as you point out, we are still not quite focused enough on the limits of this every. the hope is there. a lot of people look to the soft data as a leading indicator for how quickly this economy might be reopening and normalizing. i know you have done a lot of work on this, so i want to explore it with you in a little bit more detail. why are the pmi's so florid right now? why are they less useful than they were? ethan: let's think about what a pmi is. you are asking an executive at a firm to tell you whether activity was up or down this month. let's say activity collapses in a month, so the record that it has collapsed, and you get a pmi that is very low, 20 or 30. many executives are saying activity fell. but let's say you don't recover
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andll and activity is flat the following month. the pmi will go back to 50 because they are saying the activity is flat is very depressed levels. people look at the data and will see we went from 52 down to 30, now back to close to 50. that is a v. it is not a v. above 50, which means you are starting to recover. you see growth that offsets the collapse. there's been a tendency to miss the fact that we have to look at the 50 level. that is a flat economy. collapseomies after a is an l-shaped recovery, not a v-shaped recovery. is reallyethan, this important as we gauge and digest the data in the coming weeks and months. what is the best data point to follow? what are the teams following, the high-frequency data. what are you looking at the moment? ethan: the new york fed has a
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nice indicator that takes the 10 high-frequency numbers and creates a weekly index. that indicator has fallen sharply and has a very slight recovery. other dailynes and and weekly statistics. that is a pretty good number. i do think that some of the google mobility data is useful, numbers that measure whether people are going to the train station or not, whether they are going to retail shops or not. all of these indicators are showing that we are starting to move off the bottom here. but at a very slow pace. i guess i shouldn't forget, we also have some good data from bank of america in our credit card and spending data that can also capture these trends. jonathan: that was the plug. tom: nice to get that in there,
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dr. harris. nihan, i hope you heard that. we all understand the coefficient is not good. we understand the inequalities of america. give us your interpretation of the dynamics of that inequality right now. were in a good phase late in the cycle until covid hit. the weaker parts of the labor market were recovering. you were finally getting some wage growth. you are bringing in people. you work, you learn and become better and build your resume. that was happening, so the inequality issue is actually starting to improve slightly. the covid crisis has been really bad because it is putting out of work a lot of lower income workers in the service sector and so on. so the shock is very
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disproportionately hitting low income workers, minorities, and other disadvantaged groups. it has been a blow to what was beginning to be some progress. jonathan: ethan harris of bank of america, really appreciate your time. send my best to the team. some fantastic work over the last few weeks on this pandemic we are all working for. i think ethan touches on the heart of the issue right now. there's a clear difference between the improvement you see from shut down to reopening, to focusing on the limit of that recovery. it seems a lot of people have focused on sequential improvement and not the limits of the recovery. specifically, how much can we normalize? ethan: absolutely correct -- tom: absolutely correct. if the level goes back to 12% unemployment, and any other economy, that is totally unacceptable. jonathan: double-digit
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jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance." we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene, i am jonathan ferro together with lisa abramowicz. counting you down to the opening bell one hour away. at 3039 ontive .1% the s&p 500. in the bond market, treasury yields with little bit of a lift. up four basis points on the 30 year, up two basis point contents. your tenure maturity -- your 10 year maturity .67%. the dollar is weaker with the euro firmer. the dollar weaker against everything in g10. and with the dollar weaker
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the safe havens off it will be interesting to see what the safe havens to depending on which way the markets go. so much has to do with fixed income, something that is a bit off the radar with the international relations and the political news and the stupendous rebound in the stock market. rob waldner is with invesco, their fixed income strategist of note. he joins us. his total return gone? i cannot figure out class to class in fixed income, and michael -- mi clipping a coupon or can i invest in fixed income total return? rob: thanks for having me. in fixed income, government bonds have a lower negative yield. much of the government bonds have negative yields. that will not get you much. outside the government market, there are yields to be had. , for capitaltions
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gains. our strategy has been to concentrate on buying fixed and more quality than the fed was purchasing. that would be investment grade bonds. inside five years is a very safe investment. tom: loans have been a challenge. there was a phrase called leveraged loans with jonathan ferro understands, i do not. understandsicz leveraged loans. rob waldner, i do not. would you explain how leveraged loans have done in this debacle? -- that isged loans syndicated tooans lower quality companies but are generally secured and have some sort of security, some sort of
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collateral to back them up or some sort of assets. in this environment where you have the sudden stop in the economy and the sudden credit demand, loan suffered a selloff, as you would expect for an asset class which is related to lower quality companies. , it iseconomy recovers an idiosyncratic asset class. some of the companies handle well in their loan should do well. that is not to say there should not be some companies that struggle. jonathan: this is the tom keene strategy to plead a duress so he can highlight the fact that invesco is a huge loans shop. was that the strategy? tom: i was trying to be more startled -- i was try to be more subtle about it, unlike you. jonathan: you're about as subtle as a brick through a window, and i think we all know that. rob waldner, let's talk about how subtle people were into this downturn and how defensive they were as well.
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how defensive were people going into the downturn in what has that contributed to? rob: great question. we just released our 2019 investor survey, where we talk to 159 investors worldwide that control over $20 trillion of assets. one of the conclusions of that survey was investors were very cautious. particularly fixed income investors, but these are assets across the spectrum of asset classes. they expected we were at the end of the cycle, and they were cautious. that piece of data is an interesting piece of data to understand how things are evolving in the market. we believe the market is dragging ahead of the virus in the economic outcomes. i think we talked about that in your last segment.
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there are two reasons. cautious,estors were so they were not much better position to do this so they do not have as many risky assets to sell. the other thing is policy. we need to talk more about policy. policy has been a big boost. lisa: policy meeting the federal reserve throwing the kitchen sink and everything else towards the market. i am wondering how divorced some of the valuation's are getting from fundamentals. investors have the capacity to go risk on, but will the fed backstop them the degree currently priced into credit markets? rob: policy at the fed was to throw a big bazooka, but it is quite extraordinary what was done in the united states with fiscal policy. our deficit will be 19% of gdp. we saw income and spending data, the spending rate is now 33%.
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if you think about your typical economic slowdown and recovery, you do not see this kind of behavior, this evolution around savings rates income where there has been income support for people. that is some powder supporting the market from a policy perspective. lisa: and yet you still have s&p global predicting a big corporate -- that the corporate default rate will rise 12.5% i march of next year from 3.5% of this past march. is that adequately priced in? rob: the high-yield market, what you're referring to his pricing in default rates somewhat close. you have to look this sector by sector. if you look at where the defaults will be in certain troubled sectors like energy,
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and in those sectors you do see we are pricing for default and a lot of these sectors. on the other hand, as i mentioned earlier, investment grade, we have seen a tremendous retracement, the biggest retreatment from the winds and the investment grade -- from the wides and the investment grade sector. that sector is fundamentally solid. we think policy is supporting that sector. tom: what is your take, with all of your experience on long-duration bonds? full faith andn credit in 20 years and 50 years as well. give us the view on advantages and disadvantages of long-term maturity. as you see, the u.s. is issuing longer bonds. we issued 20 year bonds.
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that as weticipate get more supply in the yield curve and as we get a recovery, we would start to see a little more steepness in the long end over the next year two, and that steepness is probably necessary to attract the longer-term capital. jonathan: rob waldner of invesco, great to catch up with you. we appreciate your time this morning on some important issues in the fixed income market. lisa touched on it. the presence of the chairman of the federal reserve and everything the federal reserve has done last few months has been totally unprecedented. i want to go back to something the chairman said to close out last week, which is that the federal reserve does not contribute towards inequality. i think we ought to take issue with that and not simply ignore it. that is one hell of a statement from the chairman of the federal reserve, when we know from the experience of the last 10 years that if you have assets you went
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up. who has assets? that is a simple question to answer. i would also at the federal reserve has the best of intentions, but that does not mean the outcome does not contribute to widening inequality. that is simply not true. tom: i think you said it delicately and i thought you and michael mckee speaking with loretta mester of cleveland touched on that as well. i see a lot of pushback from our guests that we did not nationalize the bond market. i do not buy it. i observe we are in the process of nationalizing our bond market. maybe we can say in five to 10 years it will not be, but we have nationalized it. haves.nefits the , the upper 20%% to 30% of this nation. jonathan: we always compare it
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to an extreme. we say it is nothing like the extreme and therefore there is no problem. the extreme would be the bank of japan and japanese government bond market. the treasury department is nowhere near like the jgb or the boj. you can see the direction of travel. you have to start thinking about what the exit strategy looks like. i have no idea what the exit strategy looks like. lisa: and frankly the fed does not either although they continue to say they will have an exit strategy. i want to go back to what you are saying. that is that fed policies seem to widen the gap between the wealthy and the less wealthy. the question i have is you are right to point out the measures were necessary to the economy did not completely tank, but doesn't take pressure off washington to extend unemployment benefits and take additional measures to support the economy that might have the opposite effect in bridging this gap.
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,hat is a legitimate focus area especially as the federal reserve continues to double down on their policies. tom: -- jonathan: i cannot agree more. here is the big issue. the federal reserve tries to help issues like employment, tries to keep credit markets open so they can fund themselves and keep the credit market rolling. they do that through financial conditions. it hits financial conditions first and hits the economy much later, and disproportionately so. what happens? clearly, it helps markets more than the real economy. that is a downside you have to accept when you do these kind of policies. in, they cansteps help people straight up in there accounts. we saw that in phase one of the fiscal package and it is missing phase two. what is the next step? all we have at the moment is silence. nexti would suggest the
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effort came closer after what we have observed overnight in america. there is no question we have to see some form of physical response -- of fiscal response. about 25% onative the s&p 500. from new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: violent protests are hammering thousands of u.s. cities still recovering from the coronavirus. stores were looted from new york to los angeles. overwhelmed state and local officials are now getting help from thousands of national guard troops. thousands of demonstrators marched peacefully to protest the killing of a black man, george floyd, by police in minneapolis, but that was overshadowed by those who burned cars and fought with police. president trump reportedly took shelter in a white house bunker friday night when hundreds of protesters gathered outside.
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according to the associated press, secret service agents rushed the president to a bunker. he was sent to spend an hour there. the opec-plus is to discuss an extension of its alpha cuts. the oil cartel and its allies may extend the cut backs three months. the existing deal because the curbs to bec in july. saidia and the uae already they are increasing production. ofs testing in the city wuhan may have eradicated the coronavirus. authorities in the chinese city say they found no a symptomatically said for the first time in two months. wuhan is testing its entire population of 11 million for the virus. infected people who show no signs of being sick can still infect others. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. . am ritika gupta this is bloomberg.
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the very soul of america is at stake. we must commit as a nation to justice. jonathan: former vice president joe biden on a sensitive time in united states of america. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro together with lisa abramowicz. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg radio and tv. opening bell 42 minutes away. equities down six points on the s&p 500, -.2%. in the bond market, yields higher, the curve steeper. .68% -- 10 year yield up .68%. the dollar weaker against the bulk of g10, although we raised some of that in the last 20 minutes. a little bit later as i step away to get ready for "accountemps the open -- for the "countdown to the open" we have
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to focus on this labor market. the labor market is ugly and more ugly for others. we will talk about the payrolls report still to come on this friday. tom: special coverage into the 80 point -- the adp report on wednesday. the may jobs report on friday. we will go beneath the headline data on television and radio at 8:30. right now, an important conversation, and i would suggest my most important conversation of the day on this horrific crisis in america. the news media has been on fire through the weekend speaking about this uproar, the different views, but maybe it comes down to how a mayor speaks to his police chief and how a police chief speaks to his mayor to begin to quiet america and move constructively forward. the police chief of flint, michigan is philip clarke, nes to deal with the always handsome
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sheldon neeley, who joins us live. the mayor of flint, michigan. i believe you took over office six months ago. it has been one crisis to another, hasn't it? mayor neeley: it has been challenging, but for the grace of god we have been diligent in making sure we can provide the good it has been nothing less than a blessing to be in this position at this time. this community overcomes challenge and we will continue to do so at a fantastic rate. this is the time we have to step up and show the rest of the country what this community is made of and give them a sense of hope. i will take your point that buick cityg way from and a booming population of the 1950's.
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expressing empathy with protesters but also expressing support for police officers, saying they are needed in order to enforce law and order. what is the right balance when you hear a mayor discuss this? where should the emphasis be? i understand unity, but beyond that. mayor neeley: the emphasis should be on quality of life, quality of issues, and making sure we speak to those issues. residential, recreation, economics, education. those issues are not black or white, rich or poor. it is quality of life for everyone. we have police who protect and serve speaking those types of things to those individuals about quality of life and how we can enhance those things. those things resonate with the general public and give a level of empathy, especially for the floyd family. we keep them with our prayers
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and making sure we understand their pain. it resonates all over the country and now outside the borders of the united states. against the society that sometimes disqualifies people. we are speaking about elevating all of us. lisa: i am wondering what it is like as a leader of the city to be struggling in order to combat both social unrest and difficulties the community is feeling, along with financial difficulties that necessitate difficult choices, whether it be laying off essential workers, raising taxes, or a further cut. what you do as the leader of a city, especially in this type of a scenario? mayor neeley: we have to inspire hope for one another and continue to do it. lisa: me described pre-well. sometimes it is described -- prettyou described it
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well. sometimes it does described as a crisis on top of a crisis. we have to be a lighthouse of hope so we can get to the shores of the other side of the crisis we are currently facing with covid-19 still amongst us. we are probably halfway through this crisis, and then we have another crisis of conscience of law enforcement, what we saw in witnessed in minnesota with george floyd. we continue to do that. we stop an ongoing water crisis here as well. the only thing we can do is continue to inspire residents that we are moving forward, but we can only do so moving together. that is the spirit of unity we have to bring to the table. tom: thank you so much for joining bloomberg surveillance. we look forward to speaking to you again. sheldon neeley of flint, michigan.
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lisa, what is extraordinary you look at the battleground states is what kind of democrat will show up in november. there is all the news flow, but the real focus to me is that joe center for thee midwest central democrats or does he run a far more liberal campaign? that has to be decided. lisa: that is part of the reason he was not as present as some were expecting. he is trying to toggle the line of not being seen as going against president trump on the lawn order platform while also expressing incredible empathy for the protesters. it is difficult line to toggle between. tom: absolutely. to review the equity markets, green on the screen this morning and then quite negative. we have pretty much flatlined. i see futures at negative six, dow futures -26. we did get a 30 print on the
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morning, good morning. "the countdown to the open starts right now. an equity market totally divorced from what we have seen over the weekend. an equity market lower just seven points on the s&p 500. down about .2%. in the bond market, treasury yields as follows. your 10 year yield up two basis points. the curve steepen. .67% is year. the dollar is weaker, the euro is stronger by .1%. that is the price action. here is the big issue. we are in a difficult moment. tensions deeply rooted in american history coming to the surface as we make our way out of a brutal pandemic. this friday, we could see unemployment climbed towards 20%. a broad geopolitical relationships continue to break down and yet we
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