tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg June 2, 2020 4:00am-5:00am EDT
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♪ francine: protests hammer u.s. cities nationwide for a seventh straight night. president trump threatened to deploy the military to end what because lawlessness. new york city under curfew for the first time in more than 75 years. mayor bill de blasio says a second curfew takes effect tonight. facebook employees become increasingly bold in the criticism of mark zuckerberg over his decision not to take action over incendiary comments posted by president trump.
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some staged walkouts. welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. a lot to talk about. the markets not focusing on what is going on in the united states too much. the focus seems to be still on reopening some of the economies. the focus is on some of the earnings as well. stocks are rising in europe. u.s. equity futures are racing a decline as investors weighing positive signs on stimulus and the global economy against social unrest in america. oil is up. if you look at dollar and treasury, they are pretty much steady. we will have plenty for from the uprising in the united states. we will look ahead also to the election in november. let's get to the bloomberg first word news. here's leigh-ann gerrans. >> good morning, francine. and the u.k., prime minister boris johnson plans to reset his government's agenda with a major speech.
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the chancellor is also drawing up new plans to bolster the economy amid forecasts of the worst recession in more than 100 years. this key speech is expected at the end of june. hong kong leader carrie lam has blasted the u.s. for double standards. she is criticizing the trump administration for cracking down unrest inrators after the asian financial hub. >> whatsoever, for any government, for any economy to impose sanctions on hong kong as a result of a very legitimate process of the central government, the central authorities taking this decision hong kong to for better protect national security. >> for the first time, hong kong has banned the june for the gathering to commemorate the 1989 crackdown and tiananmen
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square. australia's central bank has kept its rates and yield target unchanged. it is holding fire amid early signs of a recovery. governor philip lowe says it is possible to adapt of the downturn will be less than expected. upcoming data is likely to show the full force of the shutdown, including a rise in unemployment. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ? francine? ? francine: thank you so much. new york, chicago, los angeles, washington, d.c. amongst of the u.s. cities imposing nighttime curfews as a protest continued over the killing of george floyd , an unarmed black man killed by minneapolis police last week. president trump threatened to deploy the military to stop the rights.
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this as federal officers dispersed peaceful protesters just outside the white house gate with teargas. president trump: if a city or state refuses to take the actions that are necessary to defend the life and property of their residence, then i will deploy the united states military and quickly solve the problem for them. francine: let's get straight to annmarie hordern in new york, which is under a citywide curfew for the first time since 1943. there is a lot of questions about the authority the president has to do with this and how will this actually look in america? what can you tell us? >> there is a lot of questions. president donald trump and white house officials did not answer when they were asked about the authority they would have to do this. people close to the matter said they are thinking about invoking the insurrection act. law that gives
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the federal government the right to nationalize or federalize the national guard, bring u.s. military of states are unable to safeguard constitutionally protected civil rights. president trump could become the first president to do this without the support of state governors. we saw this in 1992 during the los angeles riots. this is setting off a face-off between local governments and federal government. you can see the pictures now, this is the president walking through lafayette park to that church. that church suffered some damage from earlier protests. just to give you a bit of a tension the tents, the -- the tension we are seeing in america, what many are calling a photo op drew a lot of criticism from religious leaders. to make that walk to st. john's church, they had to use teargas to push back people protesting. this is just some of the scenes
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going on in america, that is clearly on edge this evening, francine. francine: thank you so much. annmarie hordern with the very latest on the upheaval in the u.s. some facebook employees are increasingly unhappy with the firm's lack of action about controversial comments from president trump. we will discuss the latest next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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racism. >> the impetus should be on quality, quality of issues and making sure we speak to those issues. residential, recreation, education, economic, safety. >> there should never be a bad cop on any police department in the world. if someone is bad, they don't deserve to be a cop. >> the training has to be improved, better, more comprehensive in large departments and small. >> we have a crisis on top of a crisis with a side of crisis. we have to continue extending a hand of help. we will get to the other side. francine: those were some of the voices we have heard on bloomberg are reacting to the protests sweeping the united states. facebook employees are increasingly unhappy with their firm's lack of action against controversial comments from the president. facebook opted against a similar move to twitter.
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senior figures are leading a virtual walkout. mark zuckerberg plans to address the situation in a company meeting today. joining us today is eileen burbidge, partner at passion capital. do a lot of these chief executives at tech companies now need to weigh in? eileen: i think they do, francine. i think that no longer can companies or brands more generally be silent about things. you are seeing some companies in the tech sector for are expressing their support or solidarity for people who are protesting or upset. thinknds, i don't companies can afford to stay silent anymore. therefore, i think the leaders of these companies also at least have to be consistent with those brand values, if not speak out specifically or personally as well. i think the challenge for facebook is that mark zuckerberg is personally owning a decision
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he took on friday, over the weekend, he is looking to be contradictory to what the company policy has been. francine: will mark zuckerberg have to do a u-turn on this. he tried to remain neutral -- on this? he tried to remain neutral, but will he lose staff if he doesn't? are they publishers? we have argued this in the past. eileen: i think he would lose staff but it would be a small number. i don't think that's necessarily a reason that is going to take a u-turn. i think he's probably hoping to ride this particular situation out. he's probably hoping the president doesn't post something up quite controversial, as he did friday. the fact that he has personally now contributed to organizations and to charities or, you know,
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nonprofits in support of protesters and for bringing social justice about, so he's trying to show that while he personally finds the comments reprehensible, he feels like he's taking the responsible decision on the part of the company. i think that is the part that employees are taking issue with. francine: we spent a large amount of time last week also figuring out exactly what twitter will do next. how important is it to have these discussions about what is ethical and unethical also before the election in november so it doesn't look like it's too politicized? eileen: i think it's incredibly important. you asked me a few seconds ago whether these companies are publishers or platforms. i think the differences between twitter and facebook are one that twitter is saying that it actually is there to inform and offer countering opinions but to point people to disproving
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mistreat. whereas facebook is saying it is strictly just a platform and simply wants to support free speech of any variety. the other huge difference is the market cap. i think the reasons why either company needs to be seen to be cooperating more with federal policy and policymakers than the other. facebook has a market cap that is 25 times that of twitter and does stand to lose a lot more if it doesn't seem to be at least working with the president and his administration. there was a conversation between zuckerberg and trump. i think these companies are going to have to navigate this more carefully as they get towards the election. one thing that covid-19 has demonstrated is that both companies are able to take some editorial view to try and help the people get the facts about what might impact their health. that then begs the question of, who judges what is for someone's health and safety and what
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isn't? francine: we saw a headline of twitter suspending hundreds of accounts associated with spreading a false claim about a communication failure during protests in washington. are we going to see a lot of these companies hiring a lot more people to monitor this kind of content? eileen: moderation has been a big area of investment for both companies. i do think they will have to continue to invest in that area. unfortunately, the toll on human .oderators is quite exhausting they are not going to be able to lessen the impact. they are going to have to continue to invest more and more as these cans officials issues become even more volatile or -- kinds of issues become even more volatile. atncine: when you look companies around the world in the space of tech, how many have spoken out about the issues
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right now, racial injustice in the u.s.? and how many more are you expecting to come out and say something? eileen: i think that's harder to quantify or hard to say. my own social media is probably too biased towards certain types of companies. from what i have seen, it is really more than 50% of tech companies, large and small, that are saying something. either that they support employees, they support the protests in solidarity with those communities or that they are making financial contributions to organizations or that they are participating may be in a blackout today. it is definitely the majority of companies that i have observed. i think you will probably see more before the end of the day. where most of these companies or many of them are based in the u.s., you will have seen them take actions in the past for any reason in any part of the world,
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whether there has been misinformation or harmful content that they felt coming from other governments or administrations. it has come to roost in their home countries. francine: thank you so much. eileen burbidge there, partner at passion capital. new york declares its first curfew in over 70 years as the president urges states to contain protesters. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash. here's leigh-ann gerrans. >> most u.k. stock market participants want a reduction in the world's longest trading hours. they're trading day is 9:00 a.m. until 4:00 p.m. according to a survey by the london stock exchange. the majority also agreed any changes would need a unified approach across europe. one -- lsd ising waiting on -- lse is waiting on surveys to make a decision. the bank told staff in a memo that those going back will mostly be traders and others who cannot work from home. it will amount to less than 1%
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of the country's global headcount. the rest will work from home until at least the end of september. in the u.k., pressure is auncing on ministers to stop controversial plan for new arrivals -- quarantine plan for new arrivals. travel executives and industry groups have warned that the current plans could devastate the industry. they include 14 days of self-isolation for people coming into the country. that is the bloomberg business flash. francine? francine: thank you so much. another night of unrest in cities across the u.s. president donald trump is frightening to deploy the military and calling out governors to "dominate" the streets. during his address, federal officers used teargas to disperse protesters outside of the white house gates. joining us now is peter trubowitz, a professor of international relations at the london school of economics.
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weld will change in social america once these protests are finished? i think a lotz: of it depends on the kind of messaging that occurs between now and the end of those protests, what brings those protests to an end. -- know, the message that certain messages need to come both at the local level on how the police will perform in the future and so forth, but i think also at the federal level, there needs to be a set of guidelines. really, there are no national guidelines for policing. i think we are not hearing anything from the white house on that really. that's what we need to see. house,ay, at the white it really was all about optics and threats.
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and i think probably what really needs to be seen is -- what needs to be coming from the white house is more positive messaging about what it will take to kind of bind and heal the nation's wounds over this. an unbelievable an unprecedented situation where you have three crises going on at the same time, a health, economic, and social crisis. francine: is this how president trump gets reelected? is the reason why he is going quite hard on the protesters, even if it's wrong, because he thinks this is a good election strategy because it solidifies his base? prof. trubowitz: maybe. i think there is something to that and there is a lot of speculation that this is a throwback to the 1968 presidential campaign and nixon's youth of law and order. the president has invoked, in fact, that phrase.
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donald trump has been ridiculed by the press, both at home and abroad, for being weak and ineffectual in the face of this social unrest. i think he's concluded that he needs to show strength. he's not only being ridiculed from kind of the media on the left, is getting it from fox news as well, as a different tucker carlsen -- as he did from tucker carlsen. i think what we saw in response to that was a series of essentially very highly charged photo ops, starting with the conference call to the country's governors, where he ridiculed them for being weak. the clearing of the peaceful protesters so he could have a photo op holding a bible in front of st. john's church. he's concluded he needs to show he's in command and encourage governors and mayors to think
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twice about not using greater force to establish order in the cities. unfortunately, i think this is likely to only polarize the situation on the ground in the cities. the president's supporters may be reassured and maybe that helps him come november. i think with those voters -- come november with those voters, but i don't think most americans will be swayed by this. most governors and mayors will try to find a way forward locally to deal with what is effectively a national, social problem. that's the mismatch here. francine: what needs to change socially for the country to start healing? prof. trubowitz: i think that it has to come from the very top. there needs to be a message that, you know, simultaneously what you need to do is reimpose social order, that's very clear. that needs to come not from federal, u.s. armed forces, but
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from the national guard, you know, supervised by governors. but at the same time, there needs to be a message from the white house about, this is a very deep social wound in the united states. to mix metaphors, this has been simmering and boiled over now. the president needs to address it. it seems to be more or less a kind of afterthought in almost all of his speeches and it really needs to be front and center. the rhetoric -- francine: peter, thank you so much. professor oftz, international relations at london school of economics. this is bloomberg. ♪ you say that customers make their own rules.
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politics. ritika gupta president donald threatening to deploy the military. federal officers used tear gas to disperse peaceful protesters just outside the white house gates. new york is also extending its curfew to a second night after looting in midtown manhattan. facebook employees are increasingly unhappy with their firm's lack of action against controversial actions against the present -- by the president. they say they glorify violence. are leadingfigures a virtual walkup. ceo mark circuit bird plans to address the situation in the company meeting -- mark zuckerberg plans to address the situation in the company meeting
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today. the people's bank of china says it will temporarily purchase loans of smaller companies by some local banks. is using around $56 billion for its relenting program. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in i'm than 120 countries, leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: thank you so much. president trump has threatened to deploy the military to end what he calls riots and lawlessness across the u.s. as cities -- cities across the country impose curfews, joining us now is peter dixon, global equities analyst at commerce bank. the impact on the protests, on the opening of the economy, but social inequality and the social will have to change in
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the coming months. what does it mean from your perspective? i think we have to distinguish between the economics and the social side of things here. in terms of what we see at the moment, it is a major social protest. in terms of the economy in the short-term, the answer is probably not a huge amount and we have to look at how the market reacted across the last couple of days to see that they don't see it that way either. i think there are concerns about how it impacts because it is something that has been in the news for quite some time. think the other obvious question is, how will it play out in terms of electoral
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politics, and i guess that will be the big story for the second half of the year as the presidential election is five months away. that could make its presence felt in the market sooner rather than later. i think from an economic standpoint, it is quiet, but there is more surrounding it then i think -- francine: will it change the way that companies operate? we talk about diversity. now is a real chance to make a difference in appointing diverse boards and things like that. will shareholders look at things like this to decide any future engagement with the company? peter: you would like to think so but it depends on the message coming down from the top. if we see signs from the administration in particular that they are willing to to takese and to start things more seriously, i think
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companies will, too. in the wake ofts companies which are slow off the mark in many respects over the years. so you might start to see some progress in terms of enhanced diversity from the company sector, but i think the process could be speeded up if we get a fairly unified and positive message from the administration, which i have to say i am not expecting. peter, overall, where do you see value in the markets right now? it is quite incredible that despite the unrest, despite coronavirus being there, and a lot of equity markets are just going up and up. peter: it is astonishing. we are 10% short from the peak of the s&p 500. that is an astonishing move.
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above 3000.shly 3000 -- we are astonishingly above 3000. basically what happens is that the authorities are throwing everything at it. huge amounts of liquidity being pumped in by central banks, and basically if you want the terms, it strikes me we have no option other than equities given where bond yields are now. in many respects, we are stalling this thing over the past 10 years with arc being wrapped up by the actions of particular monetary authorities. will supplementals in the economy catch up with what we see with equities, or are equities near a correction because they need to catch up with the fundamentals? peter: i think really the question of the equity markets
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do need to catch up with fundamentals. you might argue that there is a strong case for some form of correction. they know a lot of people have made this case over recent weeks. what causes me to be a little course rightut the now is that over the course of the last decade, analysts including myself have said -- markets need to go lower. they have not done so. you might see a little bit of -- of this here or there, but we should not expect a huge correction in equities such as we saw in march. to -- potentially there will be a wobble here or there. francine: we are just getting a headline from the u.k., bank of england, consumer credit and
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mortgage approvals, and they are the lowest on record. what does it tell you about how much you want to be invested in u.k. assets? peter: to be fair, these numbers refer to april, and we know very goesthat in april activity , 15%mething like a 14% contraction. we should not extrapolate too far from the basis that we saw in april, but i think there is no doubt that given the magnitude of the collapse in activity -- and i think this is true for many european economies, by the way -- the the pathecover we -- to recovery will be longer than we expect. the scarring that we see due to a collapse in activity will become apparent.
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it is being shielded by various measures to support workers who are not able to go to their jobs. francine: what kind of recovery are you expecting? can it bounceback if the economy reopens and stays open because there is not a second wave, or is there a way -- is it going to be like a low slog for it to come back to levels we saw in 2019? peter: i think if you look at the growth it looks pretty aggressive. appearwth profile would to be sort of v-shaped. -- but i think it will take at least three years to get back to where we were prior to the recession. in the last 40 years, it therally takes 15 years for course of output.
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contraction, the and particularly given the effect this is going to have on companies, many of whom will perhaps be unable to reopen because they have lost a huge amount of income over the course of recent months. there may not-- be much business for them to reopen for. its impact on the labor market, we would expect the jobs recovery to be very slow one. francine: peter, thank you for joining us today. peter dixon from commerzbank. coming up, we will speak with andrea amann. that exclusive interview, shortly after 10:00 a.m. u.k. time. we will track covid-19. we will also look at the price of oil. brush it is expected to make a decision on tuesday. we will have plenty more on the
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francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." a lot goes on. let's take a look at the events coming up this week. while brexit talks get underway today, two sides are in gridlock as a deadline for the transition period fast approaches. alphabet tomorrow hold its annual general meeting. it -- payed payback packet is -- the ecb will release its latest decision, widely expected to produce its
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-- u.s. futures have oscillated between losses and gains as the reopening of major cities across the country have been impacted by protests, violence, and the imposition of curfews. there have been seven straight days of unrest on the streets after the killing of george floyd by minneapolis police. president trump has threatened to deploy the u.s. military to end the "riots and lawlessness" across the nation. we are joined by the international and executive officer of fixed income at j.p. morgan. it is amazing to see that is huge unrest, what is going on in the u.s., is not impacting equities? should it? the moment the market is focusing on the reopening that is occurring around the world. economies get back
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following what is happening with the coronavirus and the good news around that. that seems to be the main focus and, as you can see what is happening across europe, this time of year, the good news and the lack of impact -- of pickup in infection rates come to that seems to be buoying markets for the minute. the civil unrest would change what central banks need to do. does it actually ask for them to do more if it has an impact on the economy longer-term? central bank the reaction function is likely to remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future under all circumstances. so when you think about the speed of the slowdown and the likelihood that the subsequent recovery is going to be quite slow, and we are also going to
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have a huge pile of -- a huge increase in debt burdens across the majority of the major governments around the world. the reality is that central banks are going to be accommodative and will keep rates at exceptionally low levels so the government can fund the increasing debt burdens. i would expect easing monetary policy for a few years. francine: what does that mean for fixed income, treasuries, but also fixed income around the world? i don't think they fixed income market is completely gone, although a lot of people are asking me that question. i do think when you look at areas like treasuries and other government bonds -- maybe canada, australia, where you still have some incremental in other markets, there is an opportunity there. they still offer you protection and as things get worse they will be the safe haven asset.
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what we are seeing at the moment is a number of people looking at other areas of the fixed income market, where you can argue that even with what we have seen since the elite part of march, there is still some value, whether it is investment grade credit. and even parts of the high-yield market if you are in the good-quality. high-yield companies that are likely to be around in the next 12 to 18 months. there has been a decent yield pickup that you can get investing in those at the moment. francine: when you look at the economy, are you expecting a recovery, a slow recovery in the u.s.? does theuncertainty protest put in all of that? think there is going to be a slow recovery in the u.s., and likely what is happening at the moment is not going to be speeding it up. i feel that it is going to be an environment that really, as they
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hold global economy starts to find it seat and what is coming out of the side of covid-19, what it means, how long this social distancing last four, how will the reopening of schools and shops, how will that go? it feels like we are going to be in a period where we are not going to get back to the level of economic activity for a number of quarters, if not years. so the v-shaped recovery is off the table and it will be a slow, shallow recovery, but supported significantly by government and central banks. breaking getting some news out of the u.k. treasury, 8.7 million jobs have been furloughed. 17.5 early in pounds have been claimed by may 31. the numbers are quite staggering. the 8.7 million jumps furloughed, we always think our numbers, but they are people as well. what does it mean for the u.k. economy? the furlough system is changing.
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we have ongoing brexit negotiations. can the u.k. come out worse than some of their european counterparts? iain: i think this is going to be the big question mark for not just the u.k. but also europe on the furlough scheme, because there has been a concerted effort by europe to keep people employment -- people's employment through the furlough scheme. when the furlough benefit start to roll off, what do employees then do? do?hat do employees then i think that is going to be a very meaningful question, and whether we see actual redundancy, and it is something the government will want to avoid. well hamper the recovery. there is a balancing act over the next few months as to how try to remove
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some of the packages they have put in place without harming the recovery. francine: thank you for joining us coming iain stealey, international chief investment officer for fixed income at jp morgan. , an ecb decision and the latest on the u.s. economy. we will run you through what you need to know this week and bring you all the latest corporate stories, coming up shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪
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francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." a headline out of russia -- some support in russia for extending the opec-plus cuts. let's go straight to wti and brent oil. toward $36 agher barrel, and the market is waiting to see if a click -- if opec and its allies will extend production cuts. we seem to have some suggestion that russia is now on board.
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willhanges to the opec -- hinge on changes with moscow and re-add, -- and riyadh. i guess in the last 24 hours. with the latest headlines moments ago, there is some support in pressure for extending the current opec-plus cuts. let's get to the bloomberg business with leigh-ann gerrans. participantsrket want a reduction in the world's up on longest trading hours. they say a trading day from 9:00 a.m. to 4:00 that they favor a trading day from 9:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. in any changes we need a unified approach across europe. in light of that, the lse is waiting on surveys from other forces for making a decision. western union is looking to acquire money gram. bloomberg has learned about the potential deal that could bring
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together two of the largest u.s. providers of money transfer services. the business has been in decline for a number of years as more people shift to online payments. no official comment from either company. delta is in talks with its pilots union to avoid potential layoffs. that is epic of the carrier said it has more than 2000 more aviators than it needs for its current schedule. blunting the impact would include voluntary packages. 88%enger counts remain below last year's level. facebook employees are markasingly unhappy with zuckerberg's lack of action against president trump's comments. some are leading a virtual walk out.
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the ceo plans to address the situation in a company meeting today. that is the bloomberg business flash. francine? francine: thank you so much. the markets, a lot of the focus will be on what happens with russia and opec-plus cuts. we heard there is some support in russia for extending the current opec-plus cuts. the markets -- let's show you the markets, i think we have time to bring them up. oil is rising. stocks in europe and asia are up. u.s. equities futures are higher as investors are weighing positive signs on stimulus and the global economy against the worsening social and west in america. if you look at the corporate stories we are watching out individually, deutsche, lufthansa -- we understand the airline overcame most of the barriers to receiving the 9 billion euro bailout from the government. i'm also looking at dollar. dollar slipping, treasuries pretty much unchanged. the things we are watching out
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cities nationwide for a seventh straight night. president trump threatens to deploy the military to end what he calls lawlessness. new york city is under curfew for the first time in over 75 years. mayor bill de blasio says a second curfew takes effect at 8:00 p.m. eastern time tonight. and facebook employees become increasingly bold in their criticism of chief executive mark zuckerberg over his decision not to take action over incendiary comments posted by president trump. some senior staff stage a walkout. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. a lot going on with the u.s., with the protests, and we are trying to figure out what this means for the new social contract if there will be one with the u.s. and we look to the november election and what it means for president trump in the polls. tom: i'm glad you mention to the election. there has been a lot of work done in the last 24 h
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