from coast-to-coast, demonstrators defy curfews, but rallies are peaceful. president trump's show of force faces backlash. investors shrug off the risk. the s&p 500 hit early march highs. the risk-on rally shows no signs of slowing. and brent rises past $40 a producersopec cost being close to an agreement on output. this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom, a couple things we need to watch out for. the italian btp moves have been significant, but they are telling because there was a surprise auction in the italian government as the ecb was expected to do or bond buying. euro ofy has 85 billion orders for bonds. and guys prices -- and gas prices could go negative. francine: it is -- tom: it is in america flat on

its back, and the good news is that the protests, which were tangible, pre-much remain calm. it was the most historic day of protests i have ever seen in new york, happening right outside my house, to be honest. there was a helicopter propped over my bedroom for a good 30 minutes as thousands of protesters went by come up madison avenue and up 3rd avenue as well. that wakes upca to a most difficult labor economy. we have had three days of labor the friday eagerly anticipated jobs report. francine: we have a lot of time to talk about america and the protests. to start us off with bloomberg first word news in london is dani burger. dani: as you said, thousands of people took to the street again across america, to protest police brutality. but there appeared to be less violence than there had been for several nights before. curfews went into effect to stem

unrest over the killing of george floyd, a black man in police custody. the pentagon is distancing itself from president trump's warning that he could use active duty military to clamp down on protests. defense department officials say it would be better to rely on the national guard for law enforcement where needed. still, some active-duty troops have been put on alert for possible deployment, most likely in washington. the european union is looking to british prime minister boris johnson to prevent a no deal brexit. negotiations between the e.u. and u.k. are deadlocked. the e.u. is pinning hopes on a dramatic intervention by johnson. he meets later this month with the e.u. top officials. rent oil rose above $40 a barrel for the first time in debt brent oil rose above $40 a barrel for the first time -- rent oil rose above $40 a barrel for the first time in three months.

russia and several other nations favor extending the production cuts by one month. they are set to start easing in july. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in i amthan 120 countries, dani burger. this is bloomberg. tom? tom: thanks so much. let's go to equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. i am going to make this quick. it is an extraordinary move by the bulls, it is across-the-board, and it is risk-on. the real news away from futures higher is the idea of safe havens falling away. the dollar consistently and persistently weaker over the last number of days. you see it indicated by weaker swiss franc. of see it by all sorts weaker emerging currencies, and i particularly note the hallmark of brent crude surging $40 a barrel. francine: i was looking at $40

also for brent. isas also looking at -- this the european markets. dollar is sinking. i feel that is significant. treasuries are dipping with gold. we had that unexpected record auction, and then natural gas. i was looking forward to see what natural gas will see. it could be the next to go negative. we showed the u.k. one, but there are many others we could have chosen. now to top stories, as protests continue in cities from los angeles to new york in the u.s. turning us now is kevin cirilli, our bloomberg chief washington correspondent. tom was saying it is personal because he can see the protests from where he lives in new york. i know it is the same in washington, many people across the country really are quite shaken by what has happened. does the president take it down a notch, after threatening

military action? is there now a more moment of reflection? kevin: francine, good morning. i think the bottom line here is that unless you live in a city where these protests have isurred, your reality incredibly different from the reality of those living in the city that have been living under curfew as well as, quite honestly, under conditions that i don't think they ever really thought they would live in an america. this is something that has not happened in at least a generation to this extent. the president, according to my reporting sources on the reelection campaign, really decided that the issue of law & order is going to be a campaign issue that he is going to run with. even in the president's tweets from a couple of hours ago, well into the evening, he was critical of republicans who spoke out against how he has handled this, including senator

susan collins. from where they stand -- and yesterday i did speak with a senior member of the president's reelection efforts -- from where they stand, the issue of law and order is something they feel is a political calculation that in the long run will help them. contrast the biden campaign. yesterday joe biden spoke in philadelphia, calling for a much different approach. francine: who supports this, kevin? is it only the president's base, or is there a wider support? law and order? kevin: it is a bit too early to tell in terms of the polls, in terms of the calculation, they are doing this in terms of yes, there base will support this, but they are also looking at this through the lens of a particular portion of suburban voters who will look at the images on the news of the protests and the looting and who will say that has to stop.

the president and the republicans are trying to say that the democrats are incapable of stopping the looting and the writing. in contrast to that -- and we are seeing this play out in new -- inith mayor de blasio contrast, democrats are saying a different tone is needed in order to squash the protests. a perfectrtunately illustration of the polarized nature of this moment, because whether it is the president going to st. john's holding a bible, people are looking at these images and seeing two very different political realities. i look at the overnight affairs, and i know you witnessed it in washington as well, and i watched the soiree on cable tv. clearly the president is very alone. after the elections last night of steve king of iowa, the defender of western civilization

, losing, and the election of a black mayor in ferguson, missouri, how alone is this president this wednesday morning? know, honestly, tom, i don't think he is that alone. i hear you, and i understand what you're saying, but in terms of my reporting, the president and his allies are still very in --ug into this -- doug this.ry much dug in to king lost the support of the republican party for a while ago, but he was a very controversial figure in conservative politics. kevin, let me interrupt, because i think this is so important, folks. after we heard from the vice president yesterday, and for our international audience, i think this can frame it. is the president less alone because mr. biden is not getting

traction with the american electorate? that: well, i think to point, the reelection campaign is trying to position biden this week. look, i think yesterday, in coming fromt is progressive democrats, the african-american vote has been a crucial part of the coalition. that is still intact and secure. in contrast, the police officers have been a crucial part traditionally. republican coalitions and conservative coalitions. this is an incredibly tense moment. in american politics. but i think it is a bit too early to see how this will play more broadly. the polls suggest. majority of americans disapprove with how the president has handled this. historically speaking, for a

president to have that level of disapproval, it is troubling for november. tom: mayor de blasio and the governor have put curfews on new york, i believe through the week. are we all clear on looting? kevin: unfortunately, i cannot make that comment. here in washington, d.c., the curfews continue for 7:00 p.m. in the evening. in los angeles it was 6:00 p.m. in parts of los angeles it was 1:00 p.m.. in terms of the presence of police and the national guard here in washington, d.c., there were hundreds, if not thousands, of protesters, by all accounts, on the national mall, as well as at the white house last night. the situation continues here in d.c. you kevin cirilli, thank

for the endless reporting. exhausting days for kevin cirilli. we will have full coverage through the days and into asian television and radio. we will do that tomorrow as well. coming up, really looking forward with the conversation with -- to the conversation with robin niblett of chatham house. from london and new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance," from london. i am tom keene in new york.

i am situated on central park, on the upper eastside right on the edge of harlem. it was extraordinary last night to see the beginning of the protests in the late afternoon, up 6th avenue come around central park to columbus circle, and then over to the east and dramatically up 3rd avenue, with hundreds, maybe even thousands moving backup. as the curfew came in, they ash to get home was not too rapid. at the brooklyn bridge and manhattan bridge, they worked on the bridges in the downtown manhattan area. right now, robin niblett with us from chatham house. thrilled to have him with us. i know francine has a number of things she wants to address. i want to address with you the future of g2, g7, or maybe it is g8.

i have no idea where we are going, particularly after mr. trudeau's pause yesterday. how many numbers are there with the letter g this morning? robin: that is a good way of putting it. i think this reminds us we have a united states under president trump has never been comfortable , or a trump administration and a president has never been comfortable with the structure of international affairs and international order that the 1945, that itin was out of date and not serving u.s. interests well before he succeeded in getting into the white house. and just as he has rewritten just about every kind of treaty arrangement that existed before he came in, from iran to the double t oh, to the w.h.o.. g20 is too vague and

diffuse. countries like germany, japan, canada, for that matter, italy -- in a way, he is right, the g7 is a hangover of an earlier era where those countries represent a much larger share of global gdp than they do today, but his instincts to want to manipulate the g process is something that isolates china, and at the same time potentially brings russia into the fold. by the way, i think he might have a little bit of an ally and that with president macron of france. i think he is trying to do too much, too late. i would not want to do any of this before the presidential election is out of the way. tom: i want you to synthesize the theory of international relations and the physics of the word "vacuum."

if the united states continues to step away from the global filled asthe vacuum it was in the 18th century? again, a very good question. i think there are two elements. as we look at the world outside the united states, i think most people will wait and see the results of the presidential election. whatever one things of the economic programs of the candidates, biden and trump, one thing people outside the u.s. are confident about is that if there were to be a president biden, there would be a refocus on building up alliances to strengthen america's power on the international stage. although you would not go back to the 1990's or early 2000's, west,st there would be a that would bring in australia,

japan, south korea, and others into that network. there is no guarantee that the vacuum will persist. the second point, if there is a vacuum that persists, i think there is an answer that is emerging. we will see greater regionalization. i don't believe that coming out of covid, if you were to have president trump for a second term, you could not coalesce a world order around president trump. you are left to those other countries, including ones in europe, and asia, like japan and south korea, including some in latin america, each of which would be trying to create a more regional set of order. you would have a g2 that would not be leading the world but that would be sitting like dueling big powers on the edge of a group of midsized countries trying to keep some type of order that benefits them. trying to see if they could create a critical mass. there is no president that has

done this in history, by the way. i am not confident, but i think that would be something to explore. this,ne: robin, all of globalization, the g2, the g7, getting russia in, and certainly the protests -- will have an impact on u.s. elections in november. how will this actually change the election in november? does it give an advantage to president trump because he is focusing on law and order, or will he lose the election because of this? robin: president trump was seen as being in a strong position four months ago, principally because the u.s. economy superficially, i would say, appeared to be doing well. yes, low unemployment. i have colleagues of mine even who would make this point -- low unemployment does not mean secure work, in my opinion.

what the covid crisis did was not just not growth back -- was not just knock growth back in the united states, but the rapid increase in the rate of unemployment because of the way the u.s. manages its unemployment system, things that you revealed -- it revealed how many people in america lived paycheck-to-paycheck. in that kind of sense, the economy is something that might not be ramped back up again by november, or by september -october, by people -- by the time people are firming up their views of the presidential election, is a big step back -- a big setback for president trump. it could also be a big setback for him among african-american voters, quite a few of whom were giving him the benefit of the doubt because he was able to shave some african-american votes for biden. -- covid, theent

think locked in some of the votes among suburban women voters, and most importantly among the older voters with whom he kind of was able to come out of the last election with pretty much a 10% over democrats with over-65 voters. so and order does two things. it allows it potentially to -- it allows him to potentially focus on suburban women voters, and it gets older voters back who are worried about security. i don't think he gets african-american voters. even with the law and order push, it is a net loss for him. robin niblett stays with us and continues the conversation on globalization.

this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: "bloomberg surveillance." let me do a risk-on data check. it has become a habit through the week, amazing given the politics of the moment. upures up 15, dow futures one point 79. s&p 500 testing 3100 on those up 1.79.- dow futures s&p 500 testing 3100 on those

future. .rent crude over $40 a barrel i will let the pros decide which of those are more important indicators of the good feeling out there within the markets, and maybe the power of the euro, through 1.10 is confounded. the 30 having your bond in the united states, posts three basis points higher. coming up soon, william dudley, former president of the new york fed. please stay with us. from london, from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ you doing okay?

yeah. this moving thing never gets any easier. well, xfinity makes moving super easy. i can transfer my internet and tv service in about a minute. wow, that is easy. almost as easy as having those guys help you move. we are those guys. that's you? the truck adds 10 pounds. in the arms. -okay...

transfer your service online in a few easy steps. now that's simple, easy, awesome. transfer your service in minutes, making moving with xfinity a breeze. visit xfinity.com/moving today. francine: the covid-19 pandemic has intensified the debate over whether authoritarian states are gaining the upper hand across

the world. democracies are coming up. we will talk to robin wright in the u.s. times. policy failures are exposed by opposition parties in the media, no more so than the united states, the world standard of democracy. that is our morning must read. us.n is back with the concern is what type of economic prowess will be losing the next couple of years and whether this changes the social cohesion and contract that citizens want with their government. robin: yeah, the piece that i wanted to remind people that some of the best performers on the covid list have been democracies. not just small ones like taiwan

butnorway, denmark, etc., big ones like south korea and germany. the critical element is public trust in government. you can get public trust in government in an autocracy. autocracy's can do a pretty good job as far as we can see, though the numbers are hard to penetrate to put a lid on the crisis. a country like vietnam. the ones who seem to have done worse is where there is a lack of trust in government and the u.s. is renowned for lack of trust in government. in a democracy those problems are exposed somewhere in russia they are not. what is this mean going forward? if i want to keep my glass half full mentality going, i would say this will force governments to follow through on the post austerity economic programs that are already being put into place prior to covid.

if you look at the u.k. come the leveling up agenda of the boris johnson government, they will have to follow through even with higher deficits and debts. includedo this would borrowing large amounts on low interest rates and following through on programs, taking a larger debt burden as they go forward and hope inflation doesn't rake out. taxation, there will be changes to the tax system, corporate tax, digital tax, carbon tax, and public support for taking more radical elements. the need for the new social contract has been confirmed by covid in democracies. i agree the finances may not be there as much as before, but the commitment to follow-through will be even stronger. francine: is there a danger this won't come in time? when you start spending the money fiscally it will come in months, if not years? robin: again, i look at least at

the moment you look at how a country like italy is coming out of this. the country is coming out of the crisis even more skeptical of the eu, but remarkable trust in the government. predictable.e and the u.k. will have to wait and see. the government has taken big knocks for its handling of the crisis. this has been such a systemic shock to people's mental frames. people are scared and anxious. i do think they are fired up, boxnt the kind of tinder moment you sign the united states. looking at europe in particular, i don't see the tinderbox moment existing in the same way here. i hope i haven't spoken too soon, but i think at the moment people are trying to get behind their governments and we are not

as polarized as the united states is right now. tom: have we established a pandemic policy in the fiscal policy around the economic decline for the elite? is that with the heart of this matter is? whether it is the uproar in the united states and the lesser uproar here, they are, and everywhere, that we established a policy that benefits the elite and no one else? shift to the future i was describing is the into the was seen asisis having benefited the elite entirely. the anger that drove brexit, the election of donald trump, marine le pen close to taking the french presidential election is that the elites benefited from responsible austerity. we saved the banks which

increase the value of capital. the response that is starting to be done and revealed through the pandemic crisis is what used to be marginal workers are certainly in europe called essential workers. the value of essential workers has been raised massively. i'm speaking from the european perspective, may be from a london, u.k. perspective, but i see a difference in the way this is playing out between the united states, the u.k., and europe in general. there is an awareness among governments that if they allow the elites to come through as the beneficiaries of the pandemic response we will have revolution. they know it. sense a real awareness and most policymakers that they cannot recover from this crisis the way they recovered from austerity in 2000 8, 2000 nine, because as you said, it

benefited one side of the equation. tom: i've lost track of the united kingdom politics. we have been distracted in new york and from seed assigning see -- and from sea to shining sea. -- robin: he can be. is thewould say for boris johnson has become much tougher, much more difficult to manage. not emotional in the way that he presents it. in the famous question time we do every wednesday is entirely different than what you sow with corbyn.

given that this government appears to have gone into this crisis not well prepared on issues like testing in particular the state of care homes, the fact that the u.k. has the highest death rate per million, per capita, and the world, just ahead of spain by current numbers, means there could be a reckoning. when that reckoning comes, even if the u.k. comes out of the crisis well, having a former barrister renowned for easing on human rights abuses across the dispatch box will be really hard for the next couple years, three to four years. thank you so much. the chatham house director. we will have more on this and what it means, also for the markets. let's get to the bloomberg first where news. >> america caught a break last

night. thousands of people demonstrated over the death of george floyd, a black man who was in police custody. there were a few fires and looting. some of that may have to do with the arrival of the national guard in a number of cities. president trump says the republican party is being forced to seek a new city for its convention. be held inned to north carolina in august, but the state democratic governor asked that the convention be scaled back because of coronavirus restrictions. the president may make his acceptance speech in a separate city so republicans can conduct convention business in charlotte. steve king lost in the republican primary. he had been rebuked by party leaders after making inflammatory statements about race and immigration. he had been stripped of committee assignments. ofzil had a record day

coronavirus deaths. latin america's largest economy reported more than 1200 new deaths yesterday bringing the death toll to almost 32,000. brazil has become the epicenter of the disease. the government of president bolsonaro has resisted social distancing efforts. global news, 24 hours a day on , powered byuicktake more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg.

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." and francine from london and

new york. we were talking about globalization and the pitfalls we have seen, what it means for the recovery in the midst of covid-19. we will continue that conversation with agency senior economic advisor. it seems almost more relevant now than at any point. what kind of global economy will with because of the social contracts, a lot of the unhappiness we are seeing, and because of covid-19? longer term, what are the impacts? >> it is a long way out and a lot of things are uncertain. a few things that were there before covid-19, the rise of nationalism, isolationism, beenctionism that had emerging anyway, my suspicion is covid-19 turbo charges that as an excuse to further national

, a greater emphasis on shortening supply chains to make sure individual countries are less fragile in terms of their exposure to supply chains elsewhere in the world. also, we will see more in the way of robotics and ai encouraging a re-shoring process. those who can bring production back home may do so. those who are dependent on cash flows to make them better off will find it more difficult to get access to those capital flows. more fragmentation coming our way in the years ahead. francine: in fragmentation they will be winners and losers. who has the most to lose and win? stephen: the countries probably in the best relative position currently are the ones who have the deepest financial pockets and can perhaps get over covid-19 the quickest.

but whatpidemiologist, is striking is china, europe, and the u.s. are the epicenter of the whole thing over the last couple of months may be on the verge of being on the top of these things. in parts of the emerging world life is possibly more difficult. i think in terms of bringing production back home, there is much more that can be done that would benefit parts of the developed world and parts of the emerging world.there are other parts of the world are emerging in a significant way, parts of africa, that desperately wanted to get on the globalization bandwagon. that bandwagon has already left, and unfortunately they can't get there at all. a nobel laureate, and i will quiz him on technology. the bottom line is many people

across different nations feel they have been left behind on technology, on product to video, and prosperity -- on productivity and prosperity. can government policy change that? thehen: this is one of biggest challenges, one of the paradoxes of globalization is narrowing the gap in income spans between countries. in western countries it increased the gap within those countries. there is no doubt manufacturing into certain service industries open to technological advances have lost their job or seen their wages coming down significantly, whereas a smaller number of people have seen tremendous benefits from globalization. there are different ways of trying to address this. you could have a greater focus within countries on what is called leveling up, trying to help the regions left behind more in terms of redistribution and taxation.

for the alternative narrative that has emerged is whether the reason we have problems in our countries is because of relationships with people in that country. that is the rebuilding of borders and barriers and mental barriers, which is something that is putting globalization into reverse. younology in the old days think of something that led to rising living standards for everyone. what has been striking is productivity growth has been soft and living standards have not advanced particularly quickly. if anything, technology has had more of an effect of the distribution of wealth rather than the generation of wealth. tom: well said. in theling from being middle of the protests and looting six or seven blocks

below where i live, maybe 10 blocks below where i live. what i find fascinating is we can't target anywhere a technology initiative to give everyone the jumpstart to productivity. is that maybe the outcome of all this over the next two to five years? toally nations wake up actually funding 100% technology usage? stephen: it may well be. one of the odd things about the rebuilding of borders and barriers -- take the u.k. for example. the u.k. has been focused on brexit and detaching itself from the eu. one consequence of that is the seat of government in the u.k. did not focus on issues concerning the weakness and productivity gains. one consequence is living standards have risen very slowly. the same is true in many parts of the u.s. and europe.

experience in some sense because in the old days technology lifted everyone's living standards. it is leading to a lot of people being left behind. their jobs are changing rapidly. their wages are under downward pressure. i read about this in -- i wrote about this in my previous book, a discussion of the implications of low growth. what you begin to get to is a point of them and us narratives between or within countries whereby the focus is not so much growing the cake but distributing the slices in a more equal fashion. what we have been use to is the cake itself expanding quickly. it would be nice if there was a way of getting back to that kind of debate. francine: who will be at the forefront? what country will be at the forefront of that debate? will there be a global movement

looking at better ways to distribute? are there pockets of countries where this will be seen? stephen: the new e.u. deal with fund for a large rebuilding and spending after covid-19 is perhaps an example of recognizing the burden sharing is better than borders being rebuilt. case that europe and asia may have a stronger connection in the future, which may work to a certain degree. we shouldn't underestimate the fact that the u.s., which has been the global leader in many of these initiatives in the last 17 years or so, once it steps away from that role and has created a sort of vacuum where they is squabbling at the top of the global set up which is leading to less in the way of coordinated policies.

i am not that optimistic we will see significant progress in that area. tom: thank you. greatly appreciated this morning. headline out from securities forarch and credit suisse tiffany's. it is not about the protests and looting, i don't believe tiffany's was looted, but i believe boarded up at 57th street and fifth avenue. tiffany's and their transaction with lmh falling apart. $117 a share down 9% on a $16 billion transaction. credit suisse looking for a statistic way beneath that. coming up, the conversation with the president of the world bank. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is "bloomberg surveillance." let's get the bloomberg business flash. mark zuckerberg is not backing down over that decision to leave

up several posts from president trump. a number of employees felt the posts violated policies against violent rhetoric. at a staff meeting zuckerberg said the posts did not clearly incite violence. lenders are negotiating a bankruptcy loan taking place days before a crucial debt deadline for the vitamin retailer gnc. they are trying to turn around the business and rework $9 million of debt. warner music delayed the pricing of its ipo until today. the company wanted to avoid selling shares on a day the music industry set aside to support protests against police brutality. the sale could value warner music at more than $13 million. that is the bloomberg business flash. tom: thank you so much. greatly appreciated. this is great. i did it know this before this

crisis. we have all learned things out of the pandemic. one thing i have learned to do is use the bloomberg terminal on your cell phone. you can get the bloomberg terminal just to get it on your stupid cell phone. you don't need a fancy terminal. francine has a terminal at her summer place in italy, she has a terminal here, it's a status thing. i will bring the data, futures up. francine, italian bonds on a tear. francine: i was going to say the only thing you want to watch on your cellular phone is what italian bonds are doing. strategists are saying they are delicately poised ahead of the ecb's meeting. the risks are setting them up for a correction on the front end in the absence of a dovish outcome. the bond sale actually got a really big bid.

i italian bonds were oversubscribed i think by quite a lot. that was a surprise auction early on, tom. -german spread,n one year or one month back. it's a miracle. francine has this glued to her cell phone, her screensaver as well. laureate from new york university. a timely conversation on america's challenges. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: this morning, mark is detached from protesting riots. stronger to and through a 112 level. we begin data on american jobs depression. an appearance in last night. a reality of, as protesters protest past curfew. protest dominate over writing and looting -- rioting. after 18 years, the self-described defender of western civilization, steve king is out of iowa and pastor ela jones is very much in as the first black mayor of ferguson, missouri. good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." from london and new york. beautiful weather in new