tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg June 3, 2020 8:00am-9:00am EDT
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pres. trump: if a city or state refuses to take the actions necessary to protect their property or residents, then i will deploy the united states military. >> the country is crying out for leadership that can unite us, leadership that brings us together. >> the tools are not fit to address the inequality problem. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. our simulcast on bloomberg television across this nation and worldwide, and on bloomberg radio. we particularly say good morning to the hundreds of thousands of
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home, stillg at sequestered within this pandemic. the new slow extraordinary. as you just heard from the president and from vice president biden, clearly political. we will touch on that in a moment. will joins levkovich us of citigroup on these extraordinary markets. we can talk about the politics of the moment, the relative calm of last night, but i think i've got to go to the clarion call in 15 minutes of the first of the may labor reports, the adp report. how do you link this wednesday report into what we are going to observe friday of an american jobs depression? jonathan: to keep it simple, the numbers will be ugly. they will be ugly this morning, ugly again friday morning. quite clearly, this market is focusing on the aggregate numbers in the future, and
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hoping that the outlook it's better as the year grows older. on the degree to which things improve, that is where i think we should have real debate. it is the social unrest that speaks to the disparity on a range of issues, not just social justice, but also on the unemployment in the disproportionate hit we have seen in particular communities off the back of this pandemic as well. tom: there's no question about this, that we can directly link in what we talk about on this simulcast with the politics of the moment. i will say this, i have personally lost perspective on 18% tossing off unemployment. that impact on society is incalculable. lisa: and the impact is much greater on specific societies. the idea that fed chair jay powell said 40% of individuals earning less than $40,000 have
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lost their jobs as a result of the pandemic, and you take a look at black and latino communities hit harder than white communities, and those that earn less and laid off and losing their money faster. you have to wonder how long this can persist, and it is not that surprising that we are seeing such a huge wave of unrest at a time of such growing disparity. tom: let's get started here, folks. we are thrilled you could join us on radio and television. why don't we bring in kevin cirilli with your observations, jonathan ferro come on last evening in new york? jonathan: i hope things are getting better. i wonder if they share that hope in washington because the peaceful protests in the daytime have been drowned out by the noise of the riots overnight. did we finally break that pattern overnight tuesday into wednesday morning? .evin: yes we did the curfew here in the nation's ,apital was 7:00 p.m. eastern and the protests continued well
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into the night. hundreds, if not more than 1000 protesters, gathering in lafayette square, right outside of the white house, as well as on the national mall. there were national guard members and military personnel who were on the steps of the historic lincoln memorial monument. all of this as helicopters patrolled the city. it is tough to find the words in terms of the historic moment we find ourselves in. this hasn't been seen since the 1960's. but i think we have to take a step back as we look at the political ramifications of this because this remains an incredibly polarized political time. i spoke with a senior source on the president's reelection campaign, and they are adamant that they are going to double down on the issue of law & order. they feel in battleground states, that that will play well
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for them in suburbs and rural parts of the community. democratic sources say that the biden campaign is going to try to continue to reestablish and reconnect the obama coalition that fell apart during hillary clinton's presidential campaign. this has beensa: an incredibly difficult time for so many people. i see it in my kids, and my kids, and i am trying to figure out where the leadership will come from to give a sense of unity and healing. president trump does not have anything that we know of just yet on his schedule. what are you expecting to hear from president trump in order to give some sort of leadership message to a country very much in pain? kevin: i hear you. 1000%, i hear you. a totally fair question. they view this as doubling down on law & order, and here's why.
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i think unless the political outside of someone's window is very different than the political reality outside of a farmer in iowa, so they are watching this on the news while the people in cities are literally living this in real time. that contrast politically speaking is why you are noticing such a divide. the president was never going to win new york city. the president was never going to win washington, d.c. unfortunately, that is the political reality. in terms of policy, i can tell you that at the end of june or early july, there is that anticipation for another round of economic stimulus. to findy hard-pressed any republican even who feels that in the next round of economic stimulus, some type of structural policy change would not be included in that bill. tom: kevin cirilli, thank you so
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much. i am thunderstruck that we really don't know at this hour, 8:03 a.m., that we don't know the president's schedule today. i find that remarkable. jonathan: to go back to the fiscal debate, senator pat toomey speaking to foxbusiness this morning, saying that perhaps another relief bill won't be needed if we can reopen this economy. this speaks to something i know mohamed el-erian is concerned about as well. i wonder if that is something we hear more about in the months to come. tom: i am really glad you brought that up. that really shows some of the disparities we see in washington. the backdrop for all of this is an extraordinary market. we talked to a technician earlier about the one-way move on small caps come of one-way move on equities. someone of great distinction,
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tobias levkovich of citigroup, joins us now. can you be a buyer of stocks on this beautiful wednesday morning? --tobias: it tom: is a little bit more troublesome this morning. the on stimulus from federal reserve, as well as from the c.a.r.e.s. act, but we have also seen the reopening of the economy starting. we have seen better news on the health care front in terms of less hospitalizations, less death, more and better treatments, hopes on vaccine. investors fear not missing out, but rather fear of underperforming. everyone focuses on the technicals as opposed to the fundamentals. for example, how is the un-and limit issue going to play out over the next six to nine
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months. it is going to be a more difficult economy, period. move,an: we see a price and there is always a tim tatian to find this neat fundamental narrative that fits here -- always a temptation to find this neat fundamental narrative that fits here. the fear of missing outcome of the fear of underperforming, as you've put it. tobias: i think there are some true fundamental backdrops. i think the best argument i have heard is that companies are making structural changes, learning how to work through the virtual reality we are kind of enduring. companies have sought out the efficiencies, and they are reacting to it. there will be some structural changes that provide better march opportunities. the problem is those structural deficiencies also mean jobs don't come back as quickly.
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it creates a demand problem. we think the 40 million numbers are too high in terms of the reported claims, simply because there's a number of duplication, people that signed up that weren't sure if they signed up correctly and submit another claim. you are seeing certain states come out until you there are duplicates. let's say the numbers 30 million, 32 million. let's say even half of those people get their jobs back by year end. there's still another 16 million people that don't have their jobs, and it is going to be problematic in terms of topline for corporations. there are certain industries during this doing extraordinary wealth, and certain others that are damaged. defendant has accelerated certain trends that were already underway. so the demise of brick-and-mortar retail has increased rapidly. towards telemedicine has increased. those are some of the things
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changing secularly. i think companies have really learned how to work through this, and it is a proper argument. the question is, has the market moved too much? our motto which is flashing euphoria again is predicting markets will be down the next several months as opposed to up. jonathan: look forward to getting you back on the program soon. tobias levkovich there of citi. citi pointing to euphoria being back in this market. contrast.ite a lisa: and it is very uncomfortable, as you have continually said. hazard beingoral baked into this market? timeill it be viewed at a if incredible disparity not only economically, but also with markets in reality? jonathan: no sign right now the
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fed cares about the moral hazard. although later, we will catch up with david malpass, the world bank president, joining us live on bloomberg tv and radio at 8:30. equity futures higher, up by six points. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. thousands took to the streets again across america to protest police brutality, but there appeared to be less violence then several nights before. curfews went into effect in many overs to help stem unrest the killing of george floyd in police custody. distancingy is itself from president trump claiming he could use active-duty troops to quell protests. still, some active-duty troops have been put on alert for
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possible deployment, most likely in washington. senate judiciary chairman lindsey graham holds a hearing today into what republicans call obamagate. they claim president trump was the victim of anti-trump forces in the fbi and justice department. the first witness is a former trump administration deputy attorney general, rod rosenstein. a meeting between opec and its allies this month is now in doubt. saudi arabia and russia are drawing a hard line over quoted cheating by some nations. ify say it may not happen countries such as iraq and nigeria don't commit to implementing a supply curb. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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working-class, against african-americans facing police abuse. jonathan: ian bremmer on the concerns we have worldwide. disparity is a word you will hear a lot in the coming months. disparity beneath the headline numbers we talk about everything will day. the adp report coming out just moments ago. better-than-expected, -2.7 6 million. we were looking for -9 million. it is going to point towards the narrative that the worst of it is behind us, and maybe things improve from here. i believe that is the consensus position. i believe the debate we should be having is the degree to which things improve in the months ahead, not just the direction. tom: i will let everybody do the off about soup. i have been -- do the alphabet soup.
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i have been sort of tired of the v-shaped recovery stuff. you say to yourself, what do we need to get back to, whether it is 18% or 19%? maybe we come in with 16% peak on employment. i would suggest there could be no social calm across the wage structure of america until you get back to 6% or 7% unemployment. 2020? going to do that in jonathan: we've had guests talking about double digit unemployment, even as we started new year. i'mgside tom keene, jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz. livemberg surveillance," on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. equity futures with just a little bit of a lift on the s&p 500. session hi, positive 0.6%. in the bond market, yields a
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little bit higher, up to 0.7%. in the commodity market, what a story over the last couple of months or so, the recovery of crude. on wti. saw, that$40 print we brings us to julian lee. what is great about julian lee writing for bloomberg opinion is not only his acuity of writing on the hydrocarbon markets, but doing it with a turbin terrific mathematical background -- with a terrific bath medical background. -- with a terrific mathematical background. the dynamics of this, was it the --amics of supply supply or demand? julian: i think it was a little
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of those. we have seen that the deepest year on your demand destruction seems to have been in the early part of april. worldwide demand is picking up, not yet very strongly and not yet everywhere, but we do seem to be coming back off the bottom. china is picking up a very strongly. other parts of the world much less so. we've also had a huge adjustment . the opec-plus countries that met in april agreed to an output cut of close to 10 million barrels a day between them. we have seen market related reductions in out what from north america, particularly the u.s. and canada. we have seen reductions in places like the zillow, the you -- like brazil, the u.k., norway, and elsewhere. it is really the inflection of both of those that a floor under
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prices. they worry that some have at the moment is that i have gone -- is that it may have gone too far, too fast. lisa: the higher prices go, the more production comes back online. we are hearing about this anecdotally from the u.s. shale patch, and now the opec+ meeting that was planned for this week will likely be canceled because of concerned about quoted cheating -- about quota cheating. i think it is, as you very anecdotal evidence coming out of the u.s. a number of companies in the shale patch saying they are starting to reactivate some of the wells they shut down. people aren't yet talking about doing new drilling and new fracking. this is very much reactivating wells that were pumping and were
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shut down in the depths of the crisis, so the rebound is likely to be relatively small, and it may still be upset by the natural decline in wells that have been brought on stream in the shale patch in the last three or four months, where production rates will still be falling. among the opec countries, the block seemsing to be those that have made very deep output cuts are angry at countries like iraq and nigeria, that seem to have done much less and they had promised to do, and that is certainly causing disagreements within the group. due to meet next week. there was talk of breeding -- of bringing that meeting forward to tomorrow. as it stands at this moment, when this meeting will be held is still far from certain.
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just how elastic is u.s. supply? i think it is probably less elastic than a lot of people tend to think. certainly, wells can be shut in and restarted as we are seeing, but i think it more of an increase in prices then we have had already before people start looking at drilling new wells or spending the money to fracture wells that have already been drilled, but not brought into production. certainly it is much more elastic than, for example, bringing on a new oil field in the deep waters of west africa, which can take five years from discovery to first production. but even so, i think we are looking at perhaps another $20 a barrel on prices before we start
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to see a real uptick in drilling in the shale patch, and that may well be a way off still. leethan: bloomberg's julian on the oil patch. trading $36- we are . i keep going back to this because it is insane. what on earth was saudi arabia thinking, along with russia, in early march to start a price war when demand was absolutely collapsing? tom: i just think you are dead on, jon. i guess they have a reaffirmation on their disciplined that they want from these shattered markets, but just the damage they did with that decision to their own economies has been extraordinary. i know mr. putin's ratings have fallen off in the recent months. .onathan: another chapter
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,onathan: from new york city this is "bloomberg surveillance." we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. i'mgside tom keene, jonathan ferro together with lisa abramowicz. getting you in shape for the opening bell. and adp jobs report that knocks it out of the park. a massive eat. the numbers are still absolutely ugly. you know the wall street came as well as i do. it is about the number relative expectations. million, but2.6 relative to a median estimate of -9 million and negative eight going forward into payrolls friday, that is a massive beat. it is a it is a -- tom: massive beat, and firming up, i will still some of lisa can doicz's thunder, i
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this on the bloomberg terminal. the difference in yield between the five-year and the 30 year's back to some renewed steepness. i never looked at that spread in my life. jonathan: why not? a lot of people do. lisa abramowicz looks at it at every single morning. the front end of the belly of the curve anchored by the fed and yelled starting to drift down as we reopen this economy. lisa: yes, and the question i have is how much is this due to the increasing deficit, the fact the u.s. is selling more debt, raising questions about demand, and how much is this pricing in a faster than expected recovery? one thing i'm looking for tomorrow is we have seen this trend lower in the number of individuals on unemployment insurance, and we are expecting the number to go down tomorrow, perhaps giving a sense of an ongoing work every. jonathan: we sought last week and that is something we need to continue seeing.
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the theme on this program is quite clearly we will get sequential improvement as we go from shut down to reopening. things willcourse improve as you go from shut down to reopen. the degree to which they will improve is where the debate should be and the limits of the overall recovery. i know i sound like a broken record bring this up every day, but that is it. it is as simple as that. as you reopen, how quickly can we normalize and what are the limits of that recovery for the next 12 months? months, i would suggest we have to get out the next 90 days. all of us are urging stores to reopen, the battle over the locked and being sequestered. i do not have a one year view. most of our listeners do not either. we are like -- where are we in august? to me that is the town. let's do -- that is the tone. let's do this.
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we have a busy morning and we have been able to crowbar a few minutes of his time. joining us is the president of the world bank. he was at bear stearns for years and assisting president trump in economics at treasury and now spearheading the effort at the world bank. we get an update from david malpass today. there is a clarion call worldwide to spend money to put people to work. how will the world bank affect that policy? david: good morning. the world bank is adding resources where it can and also targeting the resources to where the most impact can be felt. for some countries, that means supporting core businesses in the public sector or the private sector. once that if they stopped operation, it would be harmful.
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many countries the focus is also on getting cash to people, either through a social safety through in-kind transfers. we are dealing with countries that are often on the brink of extreme poverty for tens of millions of people. ,hat is the focus right now quickly moving on the health crisis and the alleviation of up systems that will work into the future. one of the interesting things happening is the differentiation of countries. what financial markets are doing is looking at some and saying they will be able to move forward with the policies they have got or will be able to put into place. that becomes a powerful positive force. tom: what are the constraints you have? our eric martin writes on the world bank and he is looking at your credit rating and some of
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the financial ratios of the world bank. i want to know what is the day-to-day constraint to deploying money to those poor countries? we are in a better position because of a recent capital increase in both ibrd and ifc. in replenishment of ida done september. ,y coincidence, by good fortune the bank has resources, and so the constraints we are planning to deploy $160 billion over the next 15 months. that sounds small by what is going on in developed countries, but if you think about the developing countries, these are large-scale resources, very welcome by the countries. is to not go over
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exposure limits for individuals countries. some countries are at their credit limit. let's think of it that way. the bigger issue is what is in their program. they want to create confidence. what we are trying to do is have worldms that show the there is confidence in the recovery on the others. one of the most important things we can do is transparency. we need transparency on the health side, meaning what is the situation for covid, also on the debt side. what are the contracts that governments are entering into? that proves to be a major challenge people all around the world are working on in order to make more transparency on the debt that is out there. jonathan: let's talk about that. you understand how delicate this moment is. what we need is grants and not
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loans. what we need for a range of countries is debt relief. can you talk to us about the scale of debt relief you can engineer in the coming months, the coming year? david: yes. grants, yourto question is exactly right. the world bank looks at $160 billion, nearly one third is grants, meaning not loans and no interest, no repayment. that becomes a strong positive for the countries. the g20 countries have agreed to a moratorium on repayments to their creditors. china,gest of that is and it -- within the last week, president xi confirmed china
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will fully participate in the moratorium. stock ofides a big new available space for the countries -- we are talking about the 75 poorest countries in the world. it creates space for them to spend on the health emergency itself. that is important. what we need is commercial creditors also come in. that means the asset managers, the banks, we are dealing with the poorest countries in the world and i think they need to find a way they can also accept a moratorium on the repayment stream so there is more resources available for the country. everybody is working together. it is a sizable amount of money but there are still quite a few steps to take with regard to especially china and the commercial creditors to have them fully participate. also the gulf states, i should mention the persian gulf states have quite a bit of debt
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outstanding in the poorest countries and their needs to be participation by them in the debt moratorium. malpass, yount have a unique position having visibility around the world, and i want to talk about china's presence as the dominant lender to developing nations over the past five years. i believe the estimates say about $500 billion of loans china has extended to some of these countries. do you have any sense of what that nation's debt forgiveness plan might look like and how that will pressure some of these nations? pres. malpass: it is important to the recovery of the poorest countries and others. included those remarks, and it was welcome, in the speech he gave two weeks ago where he said china would fully participate. china is a member of the g20
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countries, which endorse this moratorium. now we are at the point of of china'sion official creditor agencies. that is the china developer bank, china come, these are official agencies of the chinese government. we need to participate in the moratorium, and then the next level will be the commercial creditors. thatis the banks in china have lent a lot. it is not just china. they are one of many of the lenders that are able to participate. will be a them, there two way benefit. the poorest countries are helped immensely. the lender countries will be creating a better environment for the future. i am hoping people will look to the longer run and see if they participate now, they -- there will be better environments in
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the future for their markets, further exports and so on. jonathan: thank you for the hard work. it has been a while. look forward to catching up with you again soon. the president of the world bank, david malpass on the importance of grants and not loans, and market access as well. to compare and contrast with what we have seen last 24 hours. italy has seen 10 year debt and build up a book of north of 100 billion euros. absolutely remarkable. the access to markets nations like italy have and the struggle of others at a moment like this. tom: francine lacqua featuring that earlier this morning with that announcement. it dovetails nicely with the extraordinary amazon deal yesterday. the flow of money is absolutely odd. it have to believe some of finally has to move to development of this grant and
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infrastructure projects, and frankly maybe the world bank can help the united states do infrastructure. jonathan: we need some help there, don't we? central banks worldwide engineering the situation we are seeing in the bond market. out.easy to come in and in your equity market, up around 18 point on the s&p 500. we advance .6% this wednesday morning. good morning to you all. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. america caught a break last night. thousands of people demonstrated over the death of george floyd, but there were a few fires and delusions that marked the last few days of protesting. a few fires -- few fires and looting. that may do to the arrival of the national guard. president trump says the republican party is being forced
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to seek a new city for its convention. they plan to be held in charlotte, north carolina in august, but the states democratic governor has asked the event be scaled back. one party officials say the president may make his acceptance speech in a different city, while republicans conduct convention business in charlotte. , 19 congressman steve king lost in a republican primary. king has been reviewed by -- has been rebuked by party leaders after making inflammatory statements about race and religion. transformed the hype into a huge jump in sales and customers. the company says revenue sort and the most recent quarter. zoom has now boosted its annual sales forecast and become an essential service attracting more than 300 million participants. that is up from 10 million in december. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more
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i am talking about emerging and developed markets. jonathan: mark mobius on a v-shaped recovery. we are so tired about during about the v-shaped recovery. it is fair to say we have a v-shaped recovery of the market, but very few people think we will see one in the economy, not just united states but worldwide. alongside tom keene i'm jonathan ferro together with lisa abramowicz live on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. i'll be stepping away to bloomberg tv. i will be catching up with julian emanuel. far less constructive on this equity market rallied. looking forward to that conversation in a few minutes. you are awaiting your next project, maybe you can pick up your obligatory 8000 shares of zoom info. 8000 shares of the ever popular -- jonathan: i wish i had. tom: 8000 shares of the warner music root c -- the warner music group corp.
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you can pick an ipo. jonathan ferro driving our conversation. in the middle of the morning he will have important update on the politics in washington. initial public offerings, i assume somewhere in march they were dead, but they have come back with a vengeance. it is not that they have come back, it is the way they have come back. much like the italian bond offering of today, the amazon offering up a few days ago, it has been a shock. initialger writes on public offerings and joins us. how did we get back to ipo's so quickly? rew: good morning. it is nearly a 40% rally in the stock market since mid-march. companies are looking to raise cash while their stock is rising. agoturns versus a year might not be what we expect into
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2020, and the market is red-hot. are looking at volumes similar to what we saw before the pandemic took hold, and also a lot of the ipo's we saw over the past few weeks and months have performed vastly better than other shares. can you talk about why that is? drew: ipo's are riskier than investment in the market at large. is relatively new company with a short period of public financial reports. on the market is large and they tend to outperform. of whatds the question happens of what happens if the market starts following? there are 70 mounting risks from china to the unrest in the united states that i think some investors are especially worried about some of the headlines -- the headwinds. lisa: the strongest of the bunch
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are the ones coming to market. specialotten a slew of acquisition companies that have a blank check to buy anything, but also managed by respected investment firms. now we are seeing companies that already did the legwork for these ipo's come to market stronger. we are not seeing airbnb. can you talk about the strength of the companies and the nature of the companies that are able to do ipo's right now? drew: that is a good question. whenever you are coming back from a long break in initial public offerings, it sets the standard for trying to generate momentum in the space. what they're looking to do is start with the deal they have the most confidence in. they will start with the ipo's they think investors will fly through, and once the deals go ipo's thaty say send
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are a bit more questionable. this week is the first week of several good ipo's like zoom info and warner music. there have been some other ipo activities during the coronavirus. u.s.ve had 10 legitimate companies as opposed to the blank check companies go public. eight of them closed yesterday above their ipo price. they are returning over 70% on average. even this week investment bankers have the ability to those in the market and say look at how great that is trading. that is why you might want to jump into the next ipo. tom: is the reason they are up 70% or whatever number it will be, is it because they are finally pricing these things intelligently after the embarrassment of uber, lyft, and the rest of them? drew: it is hard to compare
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recent ipo's to some of these monster deals like uber and lyft. airbnb will probably come later this year or beyond, assuming the market recovery continues. tom: i have an important question. no one cares about jonathan ferro except getting the next 8000 shares. how do you do a road show with social distancing? how far apart can the rubber chicken be at a given ipo rush? mostly doing it on zoom. fore have been in the works a long time and some bankers have had the opportunity to meet with investors before the social distancing measures came into place. it is interesting, because we talk about direct listing like spotify, and whether direct listing will gain other steam.
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one knock is there is no roadshow or face-to-face interaction happening. that is how all ipo's are happening this year and it has worked. were traumatized by a rubber chicken you had during one ipo roadshow because the rubber chicken is the seminal memory you have, the seminal association you have with some of these marketing trends in investment banking. tom: what is interesting is the quality of the rubber chicken gets more rubbery based on the view out the window of the skyscraper. that is well known. lisa: [laughter] drew singer, i want to get your sense of why companies would go to the equity market, given how hot the debt world has been of late. drew: that is a good question. i think it is case-by-case for each company. warner music, most of its cash
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ration -- it's cash raised will go to selling shareholders. with the market of 40% in the last few months, it is the right time to do something like that. have to leaveom: it there. drew singer, thank you so much. look at the initial public market offering. it is researching. i want to emphasize as we look at the politics of washington and what has been an extraordinary three days and a better last night and a better morning in america. we are still paying attention to what we are doing on economics and finance investment. in this simulcast, it has clearly been a beginning of three days of job coverage. a surprising adp report, to say the least. no question about that. we move on to claims tomorrow that our complete coverage of the jobs report on friday will
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morning, good morning. startsunt to the open" right now. this is the most hated equity market rally ever for sure. costonht up with david of goldman sachs about that 24 hours ago. the pain trade is higher. equities up 19 points on the s&p 500. -- onbeat on the adp will the adp report relative expectations. the numbers doggedly. --the bond market, treasury the numbers still ugly. another day of foreign weakness. the euro advances .2%. we will be building on that story later in the program. here is the big issue this morning. the sharp contrast between the social unrest that grips u.s. cities, and the market's single-minded focus on one thing. >>
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