jonathan: alongside dean, i'm jonathan ferro -- alongside tom ferro,i'm jonathan together with lisa abramowicz. an equity market on the nasdaq 100 just short of all-time highs. quite a contrast. tom: absolutely historic moment. we were speaking with the former governor the fed moments ago.

he made very clear there are tangible parallels back to the great depression. let me give you the one thing i will be looking for besides your interview with lawrence kudlow, and that will be the all in unemployment rate. it is at 22% now. are we going to exceed the 1933hat foggy statistic of ? jonathan: i think we all hope that is the worst of it area there is a single-minded focus of this market i'm recovering, -- focusnths to come of this market on reopening come on the months to come. tom: absolutely. just to distill that, we've got wonderful guests to talk to on our simulcast this morning. the single chart for me that

matters is the vanilla twos-tens spread. the difference is now out three standard deviations. to trains like that, that is a giant norm us -- a ginormous move. jonathan: the data is 90 minutes away. lisa: we are going to be getting at 8:30 a.m. wall street time the u.s. may jobs numbers, .xpected to be catastrophic 7.5 million jobs lost, expected 19%ployment rate to surpass , this from the lowest rate in modern history. also, other things we are looking at, at 1:00 p.m., the baker hughes u.s. rig count, and then president trump will be traveling throughout the afternoon to maine to speak to businesses. a lot of people are hoping he

will give some comments around that to the press cackle around around the press gaggle him, not to mention the growing unrest around the country. you also have questions about further stimulus measures to bring people back into the labor force. this has been an incredibly traumatic week that will be capped off with traumatic job losses. i am just really grateful that we have had a chance to be together, but we cannot overstate just how traumatic and devastating it has been on a psychological, as well as a balance sheet level for a lot of people. on then: i think you are right tone. an uncomfortable moment for many people who listen and watch this program on a weekly basis, when you have seen the social unrest ,e've seen through this week and a market that remains focused on the recovery still to come. the next steps from this government, from this administration, i want to catch

up with larry kudlow a little bit later about that. i think everyone wants to know, will they be left to expire, will they be extended, or will they recalibrate it somehow to encourage employment? that will be the focus for me a little bit later. lisa: a lot of people saying there's little appetite in congress to end these enhanced unemployment, but the gap between some republicans and democrats on exactly how to extend these benefit is wide. the question is, can they come to some sort of agreement quickly enough to stave off the potential declines in consumer spending and the increasing defaults that people would expect should the unemployment benefits start to trickle out? jonathan: we reported in the last 24 hours that maybe we will have another fiscal plan led by the white house. it could be as much as $1

trillion, but it might not be considered until next month. for me, at a moment like this, when we look at where we are and where people think we are, it is quite fascinating. the median estimate for payrolls of -7.5f and points -- million, the low estimate is -12 million. is a moment like this a real throw a dart feel to the labor market economy, people just guessing where we are? tom: i think there's some outlier calls, but i really focus on what we are seeing published in the last 12 hours by economists as they tweak the statistics. . 18% is theto say center. but it is about social economics and political economics, and i am looking at the you six -- at

theu6 rate. i am pleased to say that we are joined by jim sullivan of td securities. will this be the worst of it at 8:30 eastern? is this has bad as it gets? jim: good morning. i think so. i think this is the trough. it will be a recession that was so deep. usually recessions last close to a year, but there is a hope that the trough -- that this is the trough, but it is a big hole to dig out of. tom: the fact is, it comes down to massive shift. how would you suggest fiscal has to shift in this nation, given looting, the the riots, the social fabric of the

country now? what does fiscal need to do next? jim: fiscal has done a lot already. they've already passed two big bills. we are talking about close to $4 trillion deficit this year. that said, there is probably still more to do. certainly for state and local governments, it is clear they need aid. they may need to tweak the details a bit to change the incentives a bit, perhaps, but clearly they will have to extend those beyond july as well. it unemployment rate, while will probably start coming down, it will be way above where it was for a long time. lisa: this has become consensus economists. of what are you looking for in the jobs report in terms of the breadth of job losses we may see, as well as how many people

are getting rehired? what are you looking for to determine how quickly the economy is recovering? question is the big going forward, and that won't be answered today. i guess we are in the upper end of the range on the number for today, but that comes after a reported 20 million last month. , another 20n then million in march. could you see payroll gains in the millions over the next few months? sure, but we will see what the number is today exactly, but it is going to be very high for a while. in terms of gdp, we are forecasting basically 20% annual rates in the first half of the year on a decline basis, and then 13% in the second half, but the net is -6% year-over-year. that is pretty severe. tom: as jon ferro mentioned, you are one of the best forecasters we've got. what i am absolutely thunderstruck by is we are

looking at this job economy, and you just said a -20% gdp statistic. in my right, that washington is sitting on their hands? aid just toors more get to that morning in america. things.re's two one, they have done a lot. already, what they have done is pointing to a 19% of gdp deficit this year. i think there is more to come, and obviously the fed has done a lot, and they are continuing to do a lot, even though they don't necessarily have to allowance -- have to announce a lot more. but i agree, there's more to come on the fiscal side. the other thing is this is not a normal recession in the sense that is going to be a totally slow grind back. there's going to be some let up on the supply side, so we will

see those numbers. this is not the same in that sense. look at the consumer confidence numbers. they are higher now than they were at the low in the last recession, even though the unemployment rate is much higher. i think there is some hope that these numbers are exaggerated, that this is not a depression, but it is a very severe recession, certainly. jonathan: great to catch up with you. we will get limited insight into how this reopening is actually going. bear in mind that we are comparing the week of april 18 to the survey week of may 16, so you are going to have very limited insight into how the recovery and reopening process is going. i think every single report suggests that is true. the absolutely unique thing is when you are out in the streets of new york, and granted, it is a big country out there, these

are stunning statistics we are seeing, and i just don't see an urgency out of washington, and granted, washington is distracted. jonathan: i get the feeling we will build some momentum in the coming weeks. our reporting in the last 24 hours suggesting that perhaps it is something they pick up and run with next month. some news coming out of the u.k. i usually promise myself that we don't cover brexit too much, but this comes from the chief negotiator on the eu side, saying no significant progress made in talks this week. that is no surprise to absolutely anybody. right now unchanged off the back of this. i don't think anybody should be stunned, today? much more still to come. much more on payrolls friday for the united states, with full coverage ahead on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with

lisa abramowicz. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. in buffalo, new york, two police officers have been suspended after a video of them pushing an elderly protester to the ground went viral. the video shows the 75-year-old lying motionless with lead pulling around his head. police originally said -- with blood pulling around his head. police originally said he tripped and fell. according to a document seen by bloomberg news, civilian law enforcement, national guard, and active duty army personnel. so far, the active-duty troops have been kept outside the city. national guard forces include 1700 true from nine states. opec+ is ready to extend production cuts. they were able to reach a

tentative deal without holdout member iraq. they were pushing the iraqis to start showing their share of cutbacks. brexit talks are set to finish today without a trade agreement. negotiators are still far apart on crucial issues ahead of a key deadline at the end of the month. that will add pressure for primus to boris johnson and eu president ursula von der leyen to intervene directly. germany once that deliberations could drag on through october. that means months of uncertainty for businesses and consumers. tesla ceo elon musk is stepping up his rivalry with amazon founder jeff bezos. he tweeted that it is time to break up amazon, adding that monopolies are wrong. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we needed more of a buffer to protect white house and protect our agents and secret service personnel who could be reached

by projectiles. it is the responsibility of the federal government to render that protection, and we do so in close coordination with the metropolitan police department. jonathan: attorney general william barr of the united states on quite a week for the nation's capital. the provider of the white house somewhat fortified in the last couple of days. it is quite a scene and a moment for this country. the politics very divided, as always, across any administration, but the labor market is where the focus is this morning. tom: the labor market is the focus, and the yield market as well. i think we need to describe the new fencing at the white house, which goes way south towards the jefferson memorial to the end of the ellipse, and comes all the way up to that table where you and i have lunch at the hay adams hotel overlooking lafayette park. that fence is right up against

the hay adams window. jonathan: always about your dinner, your lunch, or your drinks somehow, isn't it, tom keene? let's get to the price action. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio, with your price action is follows. equity futures still positive 24 points, up around 0.8%. in the bond market, treasury yields higher. your 10 year at 0.87%. quite a repricing through the exchange,in foreign euro-dollar unchanged right now. but coming into today, eight straight days of gains for the euro. that is zero strength in the longest such streak when all the way back to 2011. we talked to jordan rochester. he nailed that call through 110, and made very clear even the set

of things in europe that there's a real reality of euro driving ever higher. within this mix of news, we've got -- we do have to spend some time on washington, and we are trying to do it away from the cable news derby. we can really do that with martin schenker, our chief content officer. we just heard the attorney general of the united states ."nder about "projectiles the level of paranoia is tangible. i would suggest that has to come from the president. how does the administration assist the president forward on this friday and into his weekend? you are are --martin: absolutely right. the symbol of a fenced in white house is reminiscent of something you might see in a foreign capital of a

dictatorship. it is quite unsettling. whenes remind you of donald trump was brought into the white house bunker. they were so concerned about his safety. all you've got to do, for our international audience, is spend some time at ford's theater and he will always understand the safety of the presidents, or the statue of garfield on the capital lawn. we all are very concerned about the presidents safety. i understand that. but we have mixed that in with discussions of projectiles. is there any reporting by bloomberg, or anyone else you respect, of threatened projectiles? martin: nothing i have seen. the only projectiles i am aware were sent into a crowd of peaceful protesters.

is -- [indiscernible] marty, forgive us. the line is breaking up just a little bit. i think the contrast this week has been the story for everybody , the contrast between the uncomfortable nature of some of the social unrest we have seen overnight with the rioting, the more comforting efforts to secure real change that i think we all want, and a market that has just ignored a much everything going on around the world in the hope that as we reopen, things just get better, and the outlook improves. that has been the story for this equity market. morei would like to take a destructive -- a more constructive tact. you know the numbers better than me, and he will mention it to mr. kudlow in a few hours, the fed consensus is active.

i would suggest on a fiscal basis, given the size of our economy, that washington is way behind state and local assistance. i was out on the streets yesterday for the first time, maybe the second or third time in nine weeks, and it is absolutely stunning, the hardship you see even in the fanciest parts of this great city. jonathan: quite clearly, the central bank effort has divorced this market from reality, but let's be clear, that was the objective of the federal reserve , to detach financial conditions from the real economy to enable the recovery to be smooth as we work our way out the other side of this. that was the sole objective. but i don't want to put all of this down to what is happening with stimulus because that would be disingenuous. when you take a company like american airlines, boosting capacity, bringing capacity back as things slowly start to

improve, i thing it would be disingenuous to say this is all about stimulus, when you do see us start to reopen without a second wave of infections, at least so far, so good. lisa: this is the tension. few see reopening, the fact is people do have money to spend, due in part to the fiscal stimulus we have seen out of washington, d.c.. the question is, how long cannot that puts the economy forward? can we gain the moment i'm needed to get past this time and get a significant recovery? that is a serious question, and i think you mentioned something else just now, and that is if we don't get a second wave. i think people are starting to talk yet again about where the discussion is there, where the coronavirus task force is. is this an increasing risk for people who become less vigilant? jonathan: every day that goes by , every single day that passes without an increase in

infections, it will be more encouragement for people in this market to continue chasing that cyclical rally. so far, so good. we have reopened. you see the traffic start to build around new york city before the reopening really gets underway. you have seen the pictures from the rest of the united states. and so far, so good. onethan: one of the -- tom: of the signals of this week has been the shift away from the faang stocks over to the recovering america stocks. i know you bought the airlines at the bottom. bandit making out like a you -- like a bandit. jonathan: i use warren buffett as my contra indicator, and it is working out. [laughter] from new york city this morning, i'm lucky the commercial break is just around the corner. we are getting you set up for this payrolls friday. we will be catching up with ellen zentner of morgan stanley in a conversation you don't want to miss.

later, response from the white house. bloomberg withon larry kudlow, national economic council director. live on bloomberg tv and radio, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramovitz. we are counting you down to the opening bell this payrolls friday. the price action as follows. equity futures positive 26 points on the s&p 500. quite a week of gains for u.s. equities and global equities as well. the cyclical sector is badly beaten up in the downturn, really rallying off the bottom, and rallying quite hard. in the bond market, steeple curve, high yield. in foreign exchange, the story of the last couple of weeks, weaker dollar against the euro over the previous eight days. the aussie advancing once again. if i can just for a moment to up on a currency pair like all

the-yen -- like aussie-yen, on the one side, you've got the cyclical story of the aussie versus the japanese yen, that haven currency on the other side. we have moved hired for seven straight days. aussie is positive 6%. a 6% move for a currency pair in the majors is to move, and that just explains how much that cyclical's wheeze -- that cyclical squeeze has taken hold of the fx market. tom: also, you've got to wonder if it is as james butler would say, a regime shift of sorts. we will give you the market coverage here through the day with all of this news. economics, and there is a character to colorado .conomics that goes 50 years it is more than just the mathematics of what the labor economy will do. it is about better good of a labor economy.

this morning, this economy is shattered and in tatters. joining us from morgan stanley, ellen zentner. you have been wonderful about going beneath the headline data for years. i want to go away from the past of 14% whatever percent unemployment. there is a greater all in number. are we out to a 1933 statistic? difficult toreally gauge exactly what is the on employment right now because the noise in the data is so extreme. difficultyhaving categorizing those that they should count as on employees -- as unemployed versus those they should count as not unemployed or temporarily unemployed. we think today's unemployment rate should be closer to 25%. that is what we are calling the

shadow unemployment rate. we might get officially reported at 17%, say. so it is much higher than where it is, but i don't think ugly numbers right now really surprise anyone. that may be fine, but we have seen unrest with protests, and we have seen that around other moments of great economic collapse within the country. do you see a renewed urgency in -- forget to assist about all of the fancy bureaucracy, is there any desire to assist people that are 20%, 25%, and the parts of the economy that are 30% unemployed? hear coming out of washington is trying to figure out how they take care of unemployment benefits through this weekly supplement bill that has already been in place.

that is the $600 weekly supplement bill. any policy further that might come out of this is something that will be addressed down the line. right now they are trying to figure out these unemployment benefits that expire at the end of july, when the unemployment rate is still double digits. one thing they are thinking about doing is graduating that payment down rather than letting it just expire. youheory, that is the way would do government assistance programs because in theory, as the labor market is improving come up in this case, as businesses are opening up, gaining more capacity, the un-employ him at rate will come down gradually over time, and you are pulling that assistance away so that you are transitioning people away from government transfers to labor incomes. first and foremost, that is what congress is addressing right now. you have been one of the

most accurate forecasters out there, and what i think everyone is trying to gauge right now in some of the soft data that comes out anymore frequent manner, how quickly are jobs coming back? this is a question that will lead to how high and employment will be this year in the beginning of next year. what is your sense, based on the data we are getting right now, how quickly people are getting rehired? ellen: continuing claims remain elevated, but we are watching that weekly data on continuing claims to see to what extent does it come down. be foromes down, it can several reasons. it can be that the continuing claim simply runs out and they are not able be cut it is a continuing claim anymore. it could be that they go back to work. you are not sure which of those it is. if we track high-frequency data

that some companies are putting , they can atance least sell transactions in businesses. so those that have reopened, we can't learn from that what capacity the business is operating at, what the revenues are, or how many employees they bought back, but we can tell they are open. they are finding as many as 8% of small and medium businesses across the u.s. are open to some degree. so you want to see that continue to improve and then track across the state the governors that have opened for stage one, moving to phase two, phase three . so we track all of that on a high-frequency basis. that this is a net jobs number that we get every month. it is hirings versus separations, and separations are slowing even though they are atrociously high.

they have been slowing, and we can see that in the jobless claims data, but we are also hiring people that it is going to be a net negative today, but as early as june, we could move to a net positive on payrolls. we could be in a very different spot when we talk about this report next month. jonathan: this is a story i think the market is very much doting on. i wonder how limited the payrolls report today will be to ensure us about the reopening/rehiring effort. what is your take on that? lisa: i think it is still going to provide little clarity today. matter, so we don't know until we get the so-called jolt data, the job openings and labor turnover data, to know what flows drive this number we are going to see today. we will be able to see the

underlying pace of hiring within that data. unfortunately, that data is lagged by a full month. so the number today, the market is still going to be guessing what does that mean going forward for june. tom: can you guess what consumption will do? are there any tea leaves of diminished consumption? i know the savings rate is up through the moon, but given the condition here to numbers that are unimaginable, what does it mean for consumption, the back of our economy -- the backbone of our economy? ellen: if the economy opens up naturally, the savings rate is going to come down simply because we are open, and now the money that we have, and remember the savings rate you see it's across all income groups, so as the economy is opening up, structurally we will be able to

go out and spend more in relation to the income we are bringing in. so that savings rate is going to come down as we open up. my guess is it is going to remain more elevated on consumer caution, and consumers that they want to distance themselves for longer than what the government is telling them is proper to do. there will be that lingering caution. what we are seeing, though, is that with those one-time rebate checks that came through, those were spent within about nine .ays, according to a study they were spent paying down debt , on nondurable household goods. we spent a lot making the box that we live in nicer during this time. and of course, we disproportionately spent on food. unemployment benefits are also getting spent, and you are getting them to liquidity constrained households. so they get spent.

that, alongside with the programs that allowed people to delay credit card payments, utilities, other bills, the 12 month program for mortgages, we've just got an incredible amount of assistance that allowed people to spend and bring that savings rate down. . so i think we will get a good clip of consumer spending here, especially as we come out of these lockdowns, but i am not worried about today. that is a lot of pent-up demand that comes through. you get me on this. i think we are worried about what kind of spending we graduate down to after we take care of this and. the path of covid is going to dictate. jonathan: i look forward to covering the story with you in the months to come. my best to you in the whole of the team over at morgan stanley. ellen zentner there i had this

payrolls friday. the payrolls report today speaks to the depths of the downturn. this market is focused on the trajectory of the recovery, and a lot of hope has come back in over the last several days. tom: the hope has come back in, and again, i think you can play it out in any number of mysteries to september at the end of 2021 come up at the foundation here is low rates forever. decisively of mufg reaffirmed today low rates forever, up to 2022. i will be six feet in the ground, but 2023 even. jonathan: well, i hope 2023, we are still doing this program. that was really dark. why are we doing that? i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz. get a grip, man. equity futures up 26 points on the s&p 500. we advance 0.8%.

this market a real lift, a sharp contrast with the social unrest in this country. yields higher, the curve steeper. in fx, a weaker dollar story as well. from new york this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. today's jobs report expected to show that u.s. unemployment rate surged to almost 20% last month. that is after reaching the highest level since the great depression in april. the may report is likely to show the jobs numbers now extended into white-collar positions. payrolls shrank by 7.5 million positions. you jobs report comes out -- the jobs report comes out at 8:30 a.m. in new york, a protester in serious condition after being shoved to the ground. video shows the 75-year-old why am on the ground with blood

pooling around his head. the two officers have been suspended without pay. meanwhile, the new york city police department expects to suspend some of its officers for the way they've dealt with protesters. authorities are studying videos of the encounters. the senate won't pick up the next round of economic stimulus for at least a month. the trump administration expects to spend up to $1 trillion with the latest proposal. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell says there are no plans to pick up a svenja list bill -- to take up a stimulus bill until the fourth of july holiday. the justice department is demanding information from the four biggest meatpackers in an antitrust investigation. they control more than 80% of the country's beef processing market. their dominance has sparked concerns about pricing power over livestock suppliers. the companies aren't commenting. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in

more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> when containment measures were only in place from mid-march in most countries, euro area gdp decreased by 3.8%

quarter on quarter. ,nformation from surveys high-frequency indicators, and incoming hard data all point to a further significant contraction of real gdp in the second quarter. jonathan: ecb president christine lagarde on a pumping road -- on a bumpy road, a recovery still ahead of us. a lot of hope on the back of stimulus. the downturn is deep, and recovery could be slow on the continent. i am sure many of you reflected on 2012 and the whatever it takes speech. in 2020, it is for as long as it takes. low rates for a whole lot longer. in your equity market, good morning to you all. ferro, alongside tom keene together with lisa abramowicz. this is "bloomberg surveillance ."

treasury yield higher once again. your yield, 0.87%. in foreign exchange, after eight days of euro strength, we settled down a little bit. euro-dollar unchanged come about the dollar weakening against the likes of sterling and the aussie. tom: no question about that. i am watching yields on the twos-tens spread as well. what is true in market economics and academic economics and labor economics is the world has caught up to david blanche -- to david branch flower of dartmouth college. danny branchflower has been screaming about the inequality in the fictions of some of our labor statistics. now, all agree with branchflower. danny branchflower joins us from dartmouth college. good to have you here. you are definitive on wage dynamics. given this unemployment rate,

given the terrible gdp economy, what will the wage curve do? going toll, wages are be compressed. that is clearly going to be what happens. i think we are in a position where it really is hard to understand exactly what is going on. analogies have been made to the great depression, but it took two years to get to the position we are going to hear today that took us two months to get there. so we really have no real idea what exactly is going to happen. but growth is going to lag, these are unprecedented days. wages are going to be hit. talking about the recovery in europe. obviously it is really unclear what kind of recovery we are going to see in the united states. but i think a v-shaped is not on the cards. jonathan: one thing i know you are exploring is where did all the good jobs go.

do you see this trend of the last several months, which is totally unprecedented, accelerating some of the forces we witnessed coming out of this? danny: does a couple of things going on here. the first is which firms are going to survive after all of this. that is the first thing. and our people going to change their behavior in particular ways? i think people have suddenly realized that groups of workers that perhaps were regarded as not important, people who work in grocery stores, people who deliver things, people who sweep the floors in hospitals, those people have turned out to be absolutely invaluable. i think the view on those kind of folks, think about the minimum wage. i think what we need to --erstand is the people

already what we are seeing is the less educated, minority, particularly being hit either by the virus, and they are being hit now by the inability to get food, and going forward, those go to lessing to educated folks coming out of schools now. where are they going to go? i think the lack of good jobs is going to be important, but the story will always be the lack of jobs period. has been an unprecedented response that has led to pretty strange occurrences, a regime that seems to be grappling with modern monetary theory, as well as some of the enhanced unemployment benefits. , are on what we have seen there any takeaways that you would draw that you think you're

going to be instructive going forward? danny: i think there are, but i think the most instructive thing is that people have started to think the unthinkable. perhaps the only comparison would be canada. we haven't seen the unemployment rate anything at where we are at now, and the question is when we get to the end of august and october, are we going to be able to keep going? twin -- in 2010, everyone goes, we are done. that is the question. the second question is what behavioral responses are going to be by people.

the worry is going to be people falling off, and that is going to be disastrous. i have been thinking about a reverse square root. you go down, you come up a bit, and then you are flat for a very long time. that, i think, is the worry. jonathan: we got to leave it there. danny, great to catch up with you. our thoughts to your family. love to you all. danny branchflower there of dartmouth, formerly of the mpc as well. still ahead, we look at the depths of the downturn. we think about the trajectory of the recovery, and it is going to be bumpy. it could be to speed. you get that initial jump, and then the real slog starts.

as the crisis fades, will the collective will to do more to support the economy fade with it /the hope -- with it? the hope is that you don't see that from monetary policymakers in the years to come. tom: i would see in the united states what the election will bring. i am not going to pontificate on recovery i look at the for every 10th of the population and how they recover out of this horrific moment, and you know that is going to be uneven. jonathan: from new york city, good morning to you all. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on this payrolls friday come alive on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. we could see an unemployment drift towards 20%. we will get a view of the expectation from tom porcelli of rbc, next on the program. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i would find it very difficult to argue we are going to have a v-shaped recovery. the closest anyone has come as china, and it doesn't look like a v to me. >> you may want to reduce the suffering because there's a risk the whole system could come crashing down. >> now is the time for fiscal policy to get a case of fiscal rectitude. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on this historic friday, without question, the most challenging jobs report in my years of doing