tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg June 16, 2020 4:00am-5:00am EDT
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francine: fresh stimulus. the fed will begin buying individual corporate bonds. global stocks jump on the news. monthsthe best gains in in the face of worries of a second wave of the pandemic and calls between boris johnson and officials and with boris johnson saying he can't -- this is bloomberg surveillance, i'm francine lacqua in london. focus on the markets but we are
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getting some headlines for the international energy agency. the focus on what they see oil demand like in the coming years. oil demand will not fully recover until at least 2022. that may have an impact on the price of oil. new york crude wti pretty much flat. markets focused on this extra stimulus. we are also expecting to have more data points with damage the economy. plans with sentiment in the wave of -- it would also be great to look at treasuries and things like that. let's get a bloomberg news here in london.
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president trump is weighing an infrastructure proposal worth nearly $1 trillion to spur the u.s. economy according to bloomberg sources. the plan would reserve most of the cash for traditional work such as roads and bridges but they would also go to wireless and broadband pretty -- broadband. ae eu and u.k. seem closer to brexit deal. russells is confident boris johnson is willing to compromise and the prime minister said chances of agreement are very good. injected new momentum into deadlocks negotiations. the supreme court has ruled federal law protects gay and transgendr workers from jobs termination. lgbt peoplelions of civil rights they've been seeking for decades. it will now be covered by a long-standing federal law that bans sexual discrimination in
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the workplace. north korea has blown up an inter-korean liaison office. smoke and explosions were seen rising from an area near the industrial park which is jointly established with south korea. it had been shuttered amid tensions between the rivals. it comes after kim jong-un's regime threatened to move its military back into the demilitarized zone. global news 24 hours a day on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. the fed will begin buying individual corporate bonds under it secondary market corporate credit. the emergency lending program purchased only etf's. in the statement, the fed said it will base its buying strategy on a broad index. issuers won't need to certify their eligibility. the administration is
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considering a proposal which would say almost $1 trillion being spent on infrastructure. joining us is chief investment officer at rathbone's. you don't fight the fed i keep being told. what is this mean going forward? -- what does this mean going forward? >> particularly in these times when people are banking on the fed. surprising nature of the package they are going to use to buy these bonds, a suggestion of at least a billion a day and people before have been just book -- before they had been justifying in the etf market. buying in the etf market. it's open to all. i think this was well received.
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market --hy they which is why the market was so encouraged by it. these, as all of ultimately we have to decide what the final outcome will be on 2021 and how quickly they will recover. when you look at the , --ets about 20 states now picking up covid-19 cases as well. recently, most are suggesting this is one of the biggest worries.
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for may, -- for me, like every crisis, it goes in waves. you will see people move through , further locked is one thing to worry about. bankruptcies is something we are keeping a close eye on. a lot of small businesses in the u.s. will be under pressure. increased bankruptcies could be something and the effects on the consumer consumption and economic confidence. francine: where does it mean you find the most value right now? value: we are finding still in growth of tech companies.
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because this will take some time we are not in the recovery camp and we therefore seeing companies that can generate an continues to grow -- there will be periods where this works at very short. tech, consumer staples, health care. from the we also heard bank of japan that it's unlikely we will see an interest rate hike for police two years. would that be a best case scenario for much of the developed world? powell already said we would see them lower for longer. that message is can the come
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from the central banks across europe and asia. struggle,rates are a particularly for management clients for generating income. that's an area we are looking for opportunities to keep their income flow. when you look at currencies, it depends on what the dollar does. what's your take on what the dollar does the end of the year? i think we are less bearish on the dollar than some. the out view is that it will hold up better than some and so
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consequently we think the dollar will hold in the short term. particularly against sterling which is the currency we have most of our assets in. i think it will hold up reasonably well. francine: what is the one thing you think looks either too expensive right now to own? julian: the one thing i definitely don't want to own is airline, and he do with hotel operators or airlines i would avoid. they are going to find it difficult as we come out of this
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staff to its manhattan trading floors next week as it begins formally opening offices post lockdown for they will bring volunteers back in waves monday. they will start with about 20% and then builds to 50% by mid july. other parts of the business are formally just formalizing their plans to bring business employees back. assets sell
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billion of the end of april. the clients of the hedge fund giant mostly reflect returns. in march come dalio said they got hit at the worst possible moment. united airlines plans to raise $5 billion to help offset the coronavirus by borrowing against its frequent flyer program. it's as goldman sachs, morgan stanley and barclays will provide the financing. american airlines is in talks working with citigroup on a potential jump and offering that may be securing the collateral. that is the bloomberg business flash. francine. francine: let's focus on diversity in the workplace. the u.s. up in court has ruled federal law protects gay and transgendr workers throughout the nation. peopleision gives lgbt civil rights they've been seeking for decades. the company says the current , theyic and health crisis matter more than ever. vivian, i know you've done a lot theork, when you look at protests around the world does it mean investors will finally answer the right question before they invest, will they ask about diversity on the board?
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about diversity the workforce in general. >> i certainly hope they will. ceos and businesses today have multiple stakeholders, shareholders and investors are amongst the most influential and what they require of executives and themselves will impact business choices. quickly in terms of the changing environmental stability standards, increased measures. the same thing can happen with inclusion and diversity, about the importance of these practices all employees are at the heart of connectivity and we believe at the heart of rebuilding out of the covert crisis. how difficult is it for investors to have enough transparency to understand whether the chief executive is talking and not doing much about it and whether there is real
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change and management is doing something about this? clearly, leaders and businesses need to do three things to provide evidence for themselves which in turn can provide reinsurance that investors as well as other stakeholders like employees, activists, challengers or customers can demand. aroundve to set goals how they're going to rebuild. time leaders are businesses can be neutral. they have to decide they are going to add inclusive practices and diversity into their solutions. and as job- furloughs and economic slowdowns disproportionately affect vulnerable jobs and communities of color. , not sitting on the fence are being neutral, and
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deciding how they're going to affect their business. that allows you to measure it. you can measure it and manage it. report, itn the that business case is stronger than ever. you and i have been talking about this for many years. why isn't more being done about it? vivian: you are absolutely right that the recent report confirms the correlation between the increased diversity and inclusive practices of high-performing companies. it's deeply important, it also shows one third of companies remain significant -- have made significant progress on gender, ethnicity, many other types of diversity. that is great. one third of companies have made progress. at least the majority of companies still not yet making as much progress as they need
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to. it's been reconfirmed in our global data set. i will say it's also clear it's not enough to drive action. action requires leaders to do three things. set clear goals that are explicitly including inclusive diversity, not a trade-off between them. concrete action, we can come back to that of what they can specifically do. chain,zing around supply hiring practices. and if it gets measured, all your stakeholders and investors can track and hold businesses and leaders accountable. francine: i was can ask you some of those concrete measures. executive, howef do you change the culture of a place? what do you need to do? for an inclusive culture, you start with be more representative in your hiring
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and promoting your team. it's not easy. minority representation in our data set has not exceeded 20%. it still needs progress. you also need to think about the experience your employees and suppliers and all your colleagues have. so first, sponsorship development of colleagues in a structured program. that can be through a company or in collaboration with others. mentoring and coaching is important. second, clearly engaging in training your leaders. if we've learned everything -- anything since the reactions in to theof the protest
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continued civil and human rights violations in the u.s., really resonating around the world about equality for black lives as well as many other groups, is that you have to be very targeted and concrete to make a difference. you can't just say you're doing it. it has to be concrete and that's important in terms of inclusive practice. around bias and inclusion. we all need coaching when we make mistakes. businesses can concentrate on sponsorship for their executives and communities that have been under representative. specifically training programs for all employees including black and ethnic minority and women, but it also includes the majority managers and majority culture. we've to raise our consciousness. finally come measuring it.
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i cannot stress enough the importance of tracking and measuring to hold yourself accountable. investors orrd and make it external. but if you don't measure and track it and linkage to business performance, you will not make progress. all the companies that are diversity winners or of made significant progress in the past five years all track and measure their progress. francine: thank you so much. we will have to get you back on to talk about companies that have done better. get the viewwill of brexit from brussels. that exclusive interview shortly after this. this is bloomberg. ♪
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event istoday's main the fed chair jay powell reporting to the senate banking committee at 330 -- 3:30 p.m. london time. then we look at your markets. every 15 minutes on the bloomberg. look at treasuries, there is a response after what we heard in the u.s.. quite a lot more fiscal stimulus in the u.s. helping restore investors around the world. close to 3 million during coronavirus lockdown, we talked the u.k. next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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with dani burger. dani: president trump is weighing an infrastructure proposal worth nearly a trillion dollars to spur the u.s. economy, according to bloomberg sources. the plan would reserve most of the cash for traditional work like roads and bridges, but phones -- -- funds would also go to expanding wireless and broadband. the federal reserve will begin buying individual corporate bonds. the central bank will purchase debt under its secondary market corporate credit facility. -- emergency lending so far the fed will base its strategy on a yandex that it created internally. the supreme court has ruled that federal law protects gay and transgendr workers from jobs discrimination. peoples millions of lgbt civil rights that have been seeking for decades. the 6-3 majority ruling means gender identity will be covered by a long-standing federal law
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that bans sexual discrimination in the workplace. explosion were seen rising from an area close to the kaesong industrial park, just jointly established with south korea. it had been shuttered them in -- amid tensions between the rivals. the state -- it comes after kim jong-un's regime threatened to back into military the demilitarized zone. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in and than 120 countries, dani burger. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: there is renewed optimism with the e.u. in the u.k., after an hour long video call between boris johnson and -- jobless claims in the u.k. more than doubled to almost 3 million during the coronavirus lockdown, and data showed the
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number of people seeking unemployment benefits increased to more than 1.5 million during april and may. back with us, julian chillingworth from rathbone. close to going into negative rates even if the governor is quite against it? it is an think interesting debate that has been going on not just with the governor, but they have been talking to a number of the major banks about this, and the reception from the banks themselves has been one that they do not obviously wish to see negative rates. i think the governor's view is that this would be a hard sell theell to convince not just investing public but the public more generally, that we should go there. i am still of the opinion that never say never, but i think it is unlikely that we will end up going into the next credit in the u.k. forcine: but does it mean
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pound? there is brexit negotiation. we were looking at how many jobs have been furloughed. we don't know what kind of recovery we will see or whether we will seek a second wave of covid-19. i guess pound will take most of the brunt of it. what is your year-end call on it. julian: you are absolutely right. longer term we think that selling is undervalued, but that is taking much longer three to five-year time horizon. i think depending obviously whether we are facing a second ,ockdown and a slow recovery and we will have a chat about that in the second -- it is going to be very volatile. no major second lockdown in the u.k. and just spikes, which i think is what is highly likely, and we have an outcome that is not totally negative on brexit, then i think
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the pound will be around 1.25 at the year end, which is where we are. francine: where do you expect these negotiations to end up? it seems the phone call made a difference. will we get something concrete july? slightly would be amazed to forget something concrete by july. the phone call was great, and i think it shows that boris johnson was truly serious about moving negotiations on. i think that injected some andusiasm among brussels other leaders. another key factor here is that germany takes over the presidency in july, and that will be helpful in the negotiation's. in reality, we will not get any september,s until and it held around the
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negotiations of trying to build and the roque in the u.k. -- and the role in the u.k. with things, and the hawkish that are coming out of the right wing with boris johnson. there are a lot of things he needs to do in managing the economy through the current crisis. be at leastt will september before we see any detailed movement, but it was encouraging. francine: what kind of recovery will we see in the u.k.? julian: i think it will -- we were talking earlier about more global recovery, and i see a u-shaped recovery. long -- itll be more could well be a more elongated u in the u.k. , check and a slight pause depending on how the brexit negotiations pan out. if we can get a brexit negotiations done, it will be an elongated u.
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there are a lot of columns in the u.k., not the least being unemployment creeping up. we have seen a lot of companies using the current crisis to restructure businesses, and i think more people will be spending more in the next six months. francine: when you look at the kind of recovery that we will see, what does it actually rely on? how quickly we can get people back to work in the u.k., or reply how theust consumer does, whether the able to go out and shop as the economy gradually reopens the echo julian: there are a number of factors. people canuickly resume their working lives in certain industries, particularly those where you see soloing in the retail sector. this debate around social
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distancing in the hospitality sector -- current lectors -- current sectors, a number of them are not profitable at all if they have to implement social distancing. will be opened at 30%, which means they will be losing money again. the consumer needs to have confidence that they can go out there, they will keep their jobs, they can spend money, and they are going to be asked to -- greatly in the next six to 12 months. savings levels will remain high for a little while until people are convinced of that. francine: thank you so much, julian chillingworth, chief investment officer at rathbone. coming up, don't miss our discussion with the ambassador to the u.k.
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francine: "bloomberg surveillance this is." -- this is "bloomberg surveillance." emmanuel macron announcing an initiative to support research .nd development he is visiting the sanity -- the sanofi plant. we are seeing emmanuel macron with two or three officials, i believe also the chief executive. they are all socially
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distancing, wearing masks. closely whether there is a developer out of of priority for countries, for research. that was one of the debates. let's get to the bloomberg business with dani burger. more jp morgan will return stuck to its manhattan trading court next week as the biggest u.s. bank begins formerly reopening offices post lockdown. it will bring lock those back in waves to its madison avenue tower next monday. will build to 50% by july. other businesses are formalizing plans for bringing employees back. ray dalio's bridgewater suffered a 15% drop in assets under management in the wake of heavy losses for its flagship fund. assets fell to $138 billion at the end of april. according to bloomberg sources, clients of the hedge fund giant mostly reflect returns rather than client drawls. firmrch, dalio said the
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got hit by coronavirus at the worst possible moment. cerberus is preparing his next steps after commerzbank. that is after two seats were rejected on the advisory board. it could lead to a full-blown activist campaign. bloomberg, seen by the firm said it would dedicate resources to alternative paths to see changes at the bank. that is the bloomberg business flash. francine? on thee: let's get more prospects for a deal between the e.u. and the u.k. after an hour long video call. boris johnson described the likelihood of an agreement is very good. u.k. prime minister says there is no reason it should not get done by july. isning us now from brussels the ambassador of the european union to the u.k..
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thank you so much for giving us a little bit of your very busy daily schedule. when you look at what happened yesterday, what did yesterday's call between orest johnson and ursula von der leyen actually change? joao: good morning. i think it was an important moment in our process of negotiating the framework of our with the united kingdom. it certainly injected a new momentum, we hope, in the negotiations. we have been talking in the last four months, affected by the coronavirus crisis. we now have a few months ahead of us. i think there was one important clarification and the last few days, the fact that the u.k. the not want to extend transition period, meaning we have a deadline on december 31. if we count down from that date and we allow for a sufficient time for ratification, we know we have about four months ahead
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of us to make it happen. francine: does the e.u. take seriously the u.k. threat to leave the block without a deal? there is always that possibility. you can have a deal, you cannot have a deal. we prefer a deal. everybody prefers a deal. if i am listened by business people, i am sure they prefer a deal. , thelows both sides british side, the european union side, to take full benefit of a very important relationship. we have been together for 47 years. we decided to split the initiative in the united kingdom, which we fully respect, but we need to limit the damage and maximize the potential. the deal provides both of that. committed on the european union side. we are totally united behind our chief negotiator, and we are
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engaged in negotiations in a very sincere way. we have had some progress in the last four months. we hope to do more in the four months to come, and we need to have a good mix of speed. speed is important and momentum is important, but if you are driving a car, you also need to drive safe. drivingix of speed and safely is what we need for the next few weeks and months. we are all encouraged by the results of the call yesterday. the atmosphere but also the final statement, and we will start very soon again in negotiating tables, trying to make as much progress as possible. at thee: when you look deal, if the deal requires compromise on both sides, what areas do you see compromise being made on? forward some months
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ago a very comprehensive package . in fact, if i look backwards to our history of external relations, it is by far the most ambitious package of a deal between the e.u. and u.k. it has an economic partnership, which is very important, but more than that, cooperation in many other areas, including the security of our citizens that are a part of this widened and deep relationship that we seek to have with the u.k. but if you look on the economic package, you will find an associatedta come with a number of fairplay rules because we believe it is important that we ensure that there will be no competition distortion or unfair competition across the board. and also an important package on fisheries, this being an important economic front but also that has impact in the u.k.
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and some of our countries, and certainly respect historical rights. if this package of fta plus pluslay rules bless -- fisheries agreement, this is at the heart of our agreement. it is not the only element, but it is an important one. regarding difficult issues that you have mentioned, the fairplay rules, the level playing field is an important one. but i would not undervalued the important of fisheries -- the importance of fisheries. there are other elements in terms of governance, the principles that apply to our relationship. all this has been discussed. we hope now that as a result of this very good call yesterday and the impulse that are leaders provided, that the negotiators can go deeper into some of these more difficult areas. we need progress across the board. it is not only the matter that counts.
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we are changing it in the right direction. it is the substance that will deliver or not a good deal. francine: you believe there is a willingness, at least a good intention on both sides to find a compromise? joao: that's what i heard yesterday, that's what i read in the statement, and other statements that were made after that. i would like to say, if there is a way, there will be ideal. but that requires commitment on both sides, and i think sincerely our attitude and our pain and our purpose now is to get down to business in the coming weeks and months, and look very hard and work very hard towards an agreement. --are talking about about we're talking about this in your show -- the present economic -- the present international context requires a good understanding between the u.k. and the e.u.
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for our citizens, for our -- itsses, i should should be our task to do the utmost to get to this deal. i am encouraged by the summit meeting yesterday. let's get down to business in the coming weeks and months. francine: regardless of whether we have a deal or don't have a deal, how do you see the relations between the u.k. and the e.u. evolving over the next five to 10 years? joao: i'm optimistic about it. this is my role as an ambassador. but i actually am because i look at the interests and the values that we share. our countries have been together for almost half a century, and we certainly share a ton of values, but we also search -- we also share some strategic interests. the world is not an easy place to live in. there are a number of threats, and i look forward to a very solid, very wide, very deep
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relationship between the u.k. and the e.u., and it is important for a business but also for the world at large. there is a lot we still need to discuss. we should not underestimate the complexity of these talks. the broader you are, the more ambitious you are, the more complex the conversations become. the agenda requires a lot of work, and if we have a good mix of speeds and driving safely, i think we will get there. e.u.ine: what does the role will be in matters of security and defense? we put forward in negotiating table, as we call it. not to open that table of discussion -- -- the u.k. chooses not to open a table of discussion. we remain open to that.
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my experience tells me that the relationship and the cooperation between the u.k. and the e.u. countries is absolutely critical. forrtant, very relevant , and stability multilateral solutions for our problems. so i hope that we can get there one way or the other. in our mind we see a solid framework for cooperation, and the door remains open for the u.k. to join us in that discussion. positively we are going to have good cooperation. francine: ambassador, thank you so much. thank you for speaking to us on bloomberg tv. coming up, moderna chief executive says he is cautiously optimistic about a covid-19 vaccine for next year. we hear from him next, and this is bloomberg.
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>> market bottoming processes tend to happen in three phases ours is more significant and quicker than anyone expected. >> the markets have been affected by this massive amount of global and physical monetary stimulus. if you add it up, the u.s. is over 40% of gdp, and markets are going to be looking for more. ofthe size and the pace fence back -- fed balance sheet express -- expense is something that will put a floor under global equity markets. >> the fear of volatility could be back in these markets until we see cases start to compress again. francine: those were some guests talking about volatility that we see in the markets recently. speaking about the markets, --terday the markets went up
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they took a leg up. the stocks are climbing. u.s. futures also up. it is all about american monetary and fiscal plans in face of worries over a second virus wave. if you look at dollar, treasuries, they retreated for a second day. i am also looking at -- on the market to see if anything changes. point 70.at 37 saying thating out demand will not fully recover until at least 2022. more "bloomberg surveillance." next. ♪
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trillion dollars in infrastructure spending. global stocks jump on the news, asian equities see their best gains in months as america deploys more fiscal firepower in the face of worries of a second wave of the pandemic. and a call between boris johnson and e.u. officials ends with the prime minister saying he sees no reason a brexit deal can't be reached by july. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom and francine from london and new york. we will talk about what we are seeing in the markets, including some of the inventory supplies. the other stories u.k. data with the fact that there may be a way forward with brexit negotiations, and we look at all the fresh stimulus in the u.s. be interesting to talk to fatih birol. we will do that in a moment. it is interesting how oil for gin to the microeconomics
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