sales continue to come in stronger? basically, does data continue surprising to the upside? if then data starts to turn or not look like it is stabilizing, i think you will see a trillion dollars stimulus plan. caroline: the bell is ringing. three days higher, s&p 500 up. we are starting to trend back to that path of the higher point. nasdaq, remember, we had that record previously. seeine: we did not actually the closing bells. i don't know what happened. a guy up there pushing a button. dog -- doember when a you remember when a dog ran the closing bell?

i was very impressed by that. taylor: i am taking a look at some of the individual sectors. i may need to do a correction. the utilities, some of the worst performers, and the industrials. if we were really thinking that this infrastructure plan could go through, they were up less than 2%, just mildly outperforming, but mostly right in line. here in the green. we were having a discussion of -- a discussion about how cheap everyone else looks and if the u.s. can command a premium given that there is more growth in this market. romaine: samantha is still with us. there are sort of a lot of crosscurrents here in this market. we talked about the idea of the market sort of being swung by

concerns of a covid-19 second wave. of course, in the middle of all that, you have corporate profitability and earning's, still relatively opaque at this moment. what are some of the main things you are looking for that will give you some more clarity about how sustainable this rally is? samantha: i think we have to look at micro data. i am really thinking of company-level balance sheet's, company-level statements. not good enough to look at the broad s&p from a higher level. like you said, there is a major lack of clarity. we have to get to basics. for me, that is hearing it from ceos themselves, hearing it from managers. i am a really big lever that we have to kind of drill back down number look for quality whether

it be on the balance sheet, the income side. the world is changing a lot and we do not have a lot of clarity on high-level earnings. taylor: oracle coming out and saying that fourth quarter adjusted revenue is about $10.4 billion, slightly missing expectations of about $10.7 billion. adjusted cloud services coming in at $6.85 billion. we don't have an estimate of what analysts were looking for. decent beat on the bottom line. adjusted earnings-per-share of $1.20. again, adjusted operating margins look like they are up year-over-year, about 49%. they are maintaining quarterly dividend here. we have heard a lot of these companies may be stalling some share buybacks, trying to maintain dividends.

oracle really highlighting their strong performance in cloud infrastructure. cloud has continued to save the day with margins and profitability. looks like fourth-quarter revenue just slightly beating what analysts were looking for. caroline: interesting times for ray cloud business and indeed business spending as well. take as wer final start to get earnings. what about the u.s. versus the rest of the world? samantha: we are bullish on the u.s.. i think the u.s. can command a valuation premium. i personally think it is hard to get excited about europe, just given some structural issues. i really think of the u.s. commanding a premium and emerging asia, and that is a very exciting place, especially for clients that need growth in their portfolios. caroline: interesting headlines

coming from oracle. samantha, always great to have you with us. of course, j.p. morgan asset management. "what'd you miss?" is up next when will be speaking with the former nypd police commissioner on recent calls to so-called defund the police. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

♪ caroline: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york. romaine: this is "what'd you

miss?" caroline: three days of gains in the s&p 500. as risk onoint 9% trade is back. ofnwhile, a reimagining local law enforcement. protesters across the nation have been calling to defund the police in the wake of the police killing of george floyd. speak with the former nypd commissioner bill bratton. bitcoin has been failing to hold above $10,000. what can prove that the crypto sermons -- the cryptocurrency is a store of value. those give us a look on retail sales numbers out today. taylor: it is what set the tone. the optimism continuing throughout the day. take a look at this chart. retail sales on a month over month basis jumping the most on record, after rate record drop in april, the previous month.

in thee, i want to bring chief u.s. economist at workplace. i'm curious if some of this headline data gives you optimism that the consumer is back, they are spending and coming back with a vengeance? >> it is certainly clear that there is pent-up demand. i think we have to take an optimistic signal from that. we have been obviously spending a lot of time thinking about where the confidence level of the household is. suggested april data lost income had been replaced by a lot of government benefits through unemployment insurance and impact payments. the question was, would households spend that once the economy opened up. the answer to that as of now is yes. i do think it reflects pent-up demand.

the key looking forward, in my mind, is whether firms will hire back the temporarily unemployed people. if that happens, i would say we have a nice virtuous cycle in front of us. this is one month where there needs to be followthrough. we see thatn though rebound, there were a lot of folks who were fortunate, able to keep their jobs, keep their income, and they can resume spending to the level of before the pandemic. did not haveks who the same paycheck they were used to. how do you track or balance that out to get a better sense of whether we can return that consumer spending trendline to something more comparable to what we had at the end of last year? michael: i think the answer to that is really in the employment numbers. jobless claims have a lot of noise in them right now because of the processing of backlogs

and so forth, but i really think it is about employment. as good as the retail sales data was, i would say the industrial production data was much more subdued and reflects apprehension from business about whether this strong improvement reflects just one month of pent-up demand or more persistent influences. i think we have a reticent business sector and i think the intersection is employment. i don't think it is anything magical to follow other than will employment pick up in a way such that wage and salary income can support consumption rather than government benefits. i think we need a lot of hiring, something between 8 million and 10 million jobs rehired in order to continue this absent further fiscal stimulus. inoline: are you baking

further fiscal stimulus, and what about arguments that it has some -- it has in some ways prevented people from going back to work? michael: we are still assuming that a phase four spending package is coming. we still think, by the second half of july, something in the 500 billion to $750 billion range is still likely to be forthcoming. while this is still very good news, i think there is a strong argument that there will still be many millions of americans unemployed at the end of july when some of these benefits payments run out. i think that will provide incentives for another package to come together. so, yes, we are assuming we get a fourth package. you worried that some of the extra benefits go away anticonsumer might not be as strong as we think it is now?

michael: yes, i think what the recent eta has shown us is that you should have increased confidence about the near-term cyclical recovery, the 3-4 months horizon. where still in a period states are reopening, there is pent-up demand, it does seem like the next several months should be fairly solid for me cyclical recovery perspective. beyond that, i think there are still a number of questions. how strong is rehiring by then? how many americans are still unemployed? do we get a phase four stimulus or not? there is a scenario where expiration of federal benefits payments means activity later in the year after a strong rebound in q3. none of that is preordained.

i would say that is the next concern. we are now trying to assess the strength of the carryforward. yes, i think that is of great concern for our outlook and i think the outlook of most economists right now. romaine: the housing market, we have seen some enthusiasm with some of the homebuilding stocks. the idea with interest rates being so low and the housing market sort of catering to a cadre of people who maybe were not as effected by the covid-19 recession, that this is an area that a lot of people can depend on. what are your thoughts on that? michael: i would agree with that. i look at it a little bit differently but i think the overall positive assessment is correct. normally, housing is procyclical and after an expansion, we would have a lot of overbuilding. prices would be elevated, inventory levels would be

elevated. a crash like covid would tumble the sector over. we think housing is in a very different position. home price appreciation still very much in line with growth and disposable income. inventory of new and existing homes were generally at all-time lows. i think that housing can recover more quickly and is one of those v-shaped sectors of the economy. andree with that sentiment there is a market index today bouncing up to 58, which is a sign that homebuilders agree. caroline: i want insight into how your thinking at barclays of doing. moment, we are hearing --e from the fed, jay powell ever more obvious when we look at the numbers when it comes to

unemployment, different demographics, different parts of the community. we heard jay powell saying everybody deserves an opportunity to participate fully in our society and economy. how do you worry about the inequality being perpetuated by the downturn we are seeing? michael: i would approach that from a political economy perspective which would generally say that the stability of our economic system, the combination of democracy and capitalism, is dependent on the benefits being shared broadly. the stability of the system is dependent on that. if there are large parts of the population that do not feel like they are sharing in an equal fashion, whether through opportunity or income generated from that, then the stability of the system is at risk. from thatit

perspective in terms of stability of the system and whether or not all americans can participate equally and have equal opportunity. think generates better outcomes over time. if they feel they are shut outcome of the stability in the system both politically and economically goes down. romaine: thank you for participating, chief economist at barclays. coming up, president trump signing an executive order relating to police reform. the u.s. senate expected to take up a bill later this week. william bratton, nypd police commissioner as well as commissioner in boston and l.a. couple will give us his thoughts. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: will come back. after years of debate, legislative effort to debate what law enforcement should be has accelerated in the three weeks following the killing of george floyd. our next guest is one of the most well-known figures in policing, credited for procedures in the 90's that lowered the crime rate. bill bratton was commissioner in new york, los angeles, and boston. thank you for being here today. we started off today with the president of the united states signing an executive order that largely centers around changing some of the credentialing for federal funds going to local law enforcement. we have a bill working its way potentially through the senate that would also facilitate some changes at the local level for how we police. how receptive do you think local police chiefs will be to some of

these federal efforts? bill: you left out the third initiative in the house of representatives. we have three what you would hope would be coordinated initiatives. the devil is in the details. what proposals are going to survive, what will be funded, how long will they take? i think most of what will be proposed, the president's initiative, the senate, and tomorrow comedy house, would be embraced by police chiefs -- tomorrow, the house, would be embraced by police chiefs. a national screening system so that an officer discharge from one department for cause would not be hired by another department. responders social trying to take some of the functions that have been dumped on the police over the last 30

years, the idea of having other individuals who are more highly trained to take on that responsibility, something that i would also support. at the same time, that will be extraordinarily costly and you will need a lot of them. --much of these resources something the government has failed to handle. a lot good stuff here. again, the idea is what actually survives the review process of the funding process. this will also be competing with 50 governors all rushing to try and implement changes in their states, and the 18,000 mayors, city managers, who oversee the country's 18,000 separate police forces. there is a lot of good stuff

here. but let's see what happens with it. caroline: you talk about how costly this could be. the approach that you see, it is interesting, as your career was really on the trajectory efforts when you were with new york, l.a., boston, more resources go into the police, more action to tackle crime. but now it seems to almost be the polar opposite. how do you square that circle of the cost basis? william: in the city of new york, the police force was enlarged by 5000 school safety officers. they put it out of the better managed police department. summarilyic agencies, very poorly managed. york, the police were thought to be the best and edged

agencies in sit -- the best managed agencies in city government. andany organizations failed when they failed, they tended to dump it on the police department. it is effectively taking away what was given to the police years ago. goes, thee how this transfer of responsibilities, whether the agencies are effective in taking care of them. isther thing they talk about cutting overtime. let's face it, in the midst of what is happening in the last three weeks, no city is not going to put police out to deal with demonstrations, whether they are orderly or not. any time they cut police overtime budgets, that is basically one of the shell games. let's face it, what we are talking about here is reform. a lot of reform is necessary, needed. but it is going to be costly.

the idea of defunding the police. do you want to reduce training instead of increasing training? the thing i am most concerned about is the ability to hang onto the officers that we have as well as higher new officers. a minority at this time who would want to join a police force. if you are a minority, essentially you will be called an uncle tom if you are an african-american. all of the stress on police departments, i wonder and worry where policing will be in the next several years. taylor: it is interesting that some congressman, congresswoman have been saying that the trump executive order has the right frame of mind but does not go far enough. to bannt specific calls different message. is that something that can be realistically enforced?

something that could be embraced here as we talk about navy reducing some of the violent tactics that are used? william: the elephant in the room and american policing is that there are 18,000 police forces. 50 different states and the federal government. there are no national standards for what policing does. the issue you just raised about show colds. the president has his perspective, congressmen and congresswoman have their perspective. the governors have theirs. the 18,000 entities that manage police departments have theirs. how we get all of these people isone place, is it criminal, it administrative? this is part of a debate that will be undertaken. a chokehold is something that needs to be carefully looked at,

described, and national standards would come into play so that everyone in those 18,000 police departments has to play by the same rules. gets veryan public confused when they see in one state a police officer who uses force it's fired on the same day uses it, in another state it may take years. what they don't understand, every one of those 18,000 police departments operates under different rules. that is the confusion that exists today. caroline: confusion that we hope we can sift through and clarity can be brought. william: hopefully we all end up looking through the same pane of glass and get these issues resolved. because they do need to be resolved. caroline: bill brown, formally -- bill bratton, formerly nypd police commissioner. coming up president trump is considering a monster investment

in u.s. info structure. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: president trump's team, we understand, is weighing $1 trillion for infrastructure to help spur the economy. taylor: believe it or not, it is not just today, this has been a conversation we have been discussing for four years. pretty much ever since president trump was elect it, we have been talking about these infrastructure plans. screen,op part of the infrastructure bond index getting a big boost. on the bottom of the screen, a different picture. global infrastructure index has been lagging the msci.

in this case, it seems to be the u.s. and bonds that are driving the story. i want to bring in bloomberg reporter josh wingrove. devils are in the details. bridges, 5g, what do you think? josh: it sounds like it will be a mix of it but it is very much in flux. that law was $300 billion over five years. democrats want to ratchet it up to another $500 billion. is it over five, is it over 10 years as his budget proposed four months or so ago when the economy was on more normal footing? it looks like they are trying to find their way. when he did float a version of this pre-covid pandemic, it was old-school ratio of

infrastructure, that sort of -- it seems in flux, but momentum.ertainly romaine: call me skeptical here because we need to see followthrough on the white house. taylor sort of alluded to this in her introduction. i felt like just a few months ago, they were talking about a $2 trillion if structure plan. may of 2019, they put out a plan. october of 2017, they put out a plan. of course, shortly after the election in 2016, they put out a plan. where are those now? josh: sort of piled on top of the other, i suppose. it is a great point.

we don't know how they would even fund it. the democrats have put out some detail. we will see whether the republicans do as well. senateilence from republicans. together, ifcame they got what they wanted, and i should note that this is kind of linked to, but distinct from the phase four talks. let's say trump got what he wanted on infrastructure, these ,hings take a long time to do this money takes a long time to get out the door. it just simply is not a snap your fingers scenario when you try to push infrastructure money out the door. caroline: we are seeing lots of pictures of roadbuilding, hard-core graft, but what about

the infrastructure that will promote 5g, technology and the like. what are you hearing about proposals from their, particularly in the rural community? josh: we will hear some of that from the president later this week. he is due to talk about rural broadband. we heard a little bit about that from the president of the san francisco fed, saying we should seize this moment, on-ramp everyone to whatever the economy is going to look like, for instance if not everyone can have a secure internet from home, they cannot really work from home if that is what we are going to be doing for a while. the big push, all infrastructure spending, trying to get it done on capitol hill, how do you pay for it? originally, it was gas tax envisioned. hard to imagine that being on the table now at all.

with interest rates near zero, perhaps congress will say, let's fund this thing. as for 5g, i do think the president will continue to ratchet up the pressure on china. that will invariably continue the pressure on huawei and allied nations to continue using hardware both in the u.s. and like-minded countries. romaine: with interest rates where they are right now, it does kind of make you wonder why they don't move forward with this right now. let's get over now to the bloomberg first word news with mark crumpton. mark: university of oxford low cost,s say a widely used anti-inflammatory drug improves survival in patients with covid-19. first treatment to show promise months into the pandemic. prime minister boris johnson

today welcomed the news. >> i think because of the actions taken, we saved many thousands of lives at the least, and we are coming through this. of course, it is a very difficult time for this country, but we are coming through it. mark: the british government immediately authorized the use of the drug across the united kingdom for coronavirus patients like those who did well in the study. the united states and canada have agreed to extend their agreement to keep their border closed to non-essential travel through july 21. americans who are returning to the u.s., and canadians who are returning home, are exempted from the border closure. exempted workers like health care professionals, airline crews, and truck drivers are still permitted to cross. florida is seeing its worst coronavirus numbers since the pandemic began. thanials reported more

80,000 total cases today. deaths among florida residents were up 1.9%. in the past seven days, florida has seen more than 14,000 new cases, its highest level ever. governor ron desantis has attributed the uptick to isolated outbreaks in agriculture communities and to increased testing. president trump today signed an executive order on policing, aimed at encouraging better police practices. it would also establish a database to keep track of officers with excessive use of force complaints. the move follows weeks of protests since the police killing of george floyd in minneapolis. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪

difficult to talk generally about how the virus has impacted leaders because in fact it is very specific nation to nation. even as you look across europe, you can see that leaders who have been successful or perceived as having been successful have been reinforced in power and are doing better. rkel in look at angela me germany, you can look at the prime minister of greece. they are looked at as having successfully fought it either through technology or lockdowns. then, if you look across the world, those that are perceived as failing are in trouble. boris johnson in britain is in

trouble. he has been heavily criticized. bolsonaro,o look at the president of brazil. one of the most interesting aspects of how the virus has touched international affairs is that at the beginning of the crisis, many people were saying, partly because this was a chinese line of argument, that it seemed as if dictatorships were going to do better at fighting the virus. and the chinese were pushing this idea that we can control it better because we can force people to do things and so on. as the crisis has played out and particularly in more recent weeks, it has become clear that the dividing line between who has done well and badly is not dictatorship versus democracy, it is more to do with social trust and lack of trust. countries that have high level of trust, really effective

bureaucracies, how have a lot of faith and expertise, have done better than those who have not, you regardless of whether come -- regardless of whether countries are dictatorships or democracies. we you -- you can find democracies who have done well and badly, you can find dictatorships who have done well and badly. reopeninglook at the conversations happening in various european countries and the u.k., why are they so different? >> partly because the impact of the virus has been different. and partly because the politics have been different. in the u.k., you had a slow lockdown. that you had a very harsh lockdown. now, there is a kind of counter reaction and a lot of confusion, a lot of argument over whether people coming into the country

should now be quarantined, which was a policy that the u.k. did not have at the beginning. disagreemently over how much international travel there should be. where is countries who have smoothly lowered their numbers and are feeling safer and safer are more comfortable with opening up. again, you see spain beginning to open i think next week. italy opening. these are countries that had very high levels of virus and illness. but because there is growing confidence in the government, people are comfortable about reopening. the european union is trying to coordinate the openings. there have been a lot of openings this week. my guess is that the impact of that, we will see in a month or so, then you will see adjustments next month.

applene: that was anne baum earlier. the johns hopkins school of public health is associated with michael bloomberg, the founder of the parent company of this network. let's turn to bitcoin, heralded gold 2.0. but, with the cryptocurrency back below 2000, is it achieving either hope. here to break down this news is jesse powell, host of one of the largest bitcoin exchanges. bitcoin becoming a store of value. are we there yet? >> we are already there. bitcoin has 10 years of history already behind it. over time, it is up and to the right. people are flocking to it as a safe haven because of that finite verdict both supply. anare not going to mine

asteroid of bitcoin anytime soon. no one can print bitcoin. it is very predictable and people are flocking to it for that reason. romaine: we did see the price of bitcoin as well as some other assets hold up here in the downturn. i wonder where you see this going. some folks have used bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as speculative vehicles. there was always this promise that we would see more of a utilitarian nature to the use of crypto. do you still see that happening? jesse: absolutely. long-term, i think you will see bitcoin surpass gold as a store of value. just like gold, you don't need to have physical bitcoin. you don't need to transfer it on the blockchain. you have these layer two solutions, like with cash.

not everyone is moving cash around in physical form and not everyone will move bitcoin around on the blockchain. i think it becomes much easier over time as we build out these tools for people to use and interact with bitcoin. pretty soon, all of the technology behind bitcoin will disappear and it will be like the u.s. dollar where not everyone understands how it works but people use it. ago, the buyere of this, sort of a mysterious figure, you did not know if it was your 18-year-old brother in the basement or an institutional investor. who do you see is the real buyer at this point for demand? jesse: in the past few months, we are seeing a massive influx of new accounts from altars -- from all personas. hedge funds, wealth managers, retail investors, day traders. everyone is signing up for it.

people have a lot of free time at home these days. people are taking a stimulus check, rolling into bitcoin or the stock market. there has been a massive new number of sign-ups. i think people are very worried about the traditional markets and what is happening with the u.s. dollar, and they are looking for a safe haven asset. caroline: but it doesn't really act as a safe haven, to the extent that people have to liquidate when they need cash. you say bitcoin is predictable but it is just not. we had the eyes of $20,000 -- we had the highs of $20,000 in know we are down to $9,400. i am wondering about regulation so we stop worrying about regulation being pushed and pulled to bitcoin itself at various price points and its becomingnd instead it

an asset that institutional buyers can feel safer using. jesse: i think institutions are getting more comfortable with it. they look to each other to see what they are doing. they don't want to be the only ones sticking their neck out. they very much move as a herd. ,s far as the volatility of it just look at the traditional markets these days. it is all over the place. bitcoin is the only thing you can look out over the last 10 years and say, it is up a million percent. if you put any money into bitcoin five years ago, you were up massively. bitcoin in the last few months has returned more than the entire s&p 500. manipulation,out if you look at the fed buying junk bonds from failed united states corporations, it is a joke. the market is manipulated. they are printing trillions of

dollars to pump up the value of publicly traded stocks. you can't price anything in dollars anymore. be buying, i would bitcoin as a hedge against that inflation. romaine: one of our eagle eyed readers wants to know about tethering. jesse: tethering is basically tokenized dollars on the blockchain. they move just like bitcoin does on the blockchain. we are aware that a lot of countries are looking into officially nationalizing or tokenized in their national currency. tether is sort of a beta version of that. caroline: how big of a deal was it for paul tudor jones to weigh in here, saying he was putting a percentage of his money into bitcoin. you say that institutional

investors move as a herd. jesse: i think the more that happens, the easier it becomes for more people to get in because they have someone else to point to to say, this guy did it. you trust him. i think that is important. romaine: then to join a -- thank you for joining us today. of kraken., ceo you can catch the kayak ceo on bloomberg technology at 5:40 new york time. this is bloomberg. ♪

withne: time to check in joe weisenthal, joining us from hot austin texas. the big news of the day, the retail sales numbers here in the u.s., which surprised a lot of folks.

joe: retail sales for the month of may coming in way better than expected. even last month's numbers, they got revised a little better. something extremely important that i think is worth emphasizing here because i think it is getting lost in some of the markets conversation. the economy is a lot that are right now than it was in late march and early april. granted, we are still nowhere near levels of precrisis economic activity by any measure. but there is this idea taking hold that the stock orchid is doing its own thing, there is no connection to the real economy. the fact that even though we have a long way to go to get back up, we are at a better spot in terms of current activity. today's retail sales number really drives that home. caroline: retail, the new york

sales manufacturing number yesterday. it is notable, you brought it up, citi economic surprise index showing how much we keep being all caught offguard. joe: that is right. we talk about that from time to time on the show. it is a gauge of not absolute date about how the data is coming in relative to economist forecasts. that just hit the highest level in its 20 year history of the index. again, it is not that things are amazing. we could all sit here and list all the risks to the economy. , thisbjectively speaking recovery at least so far has come faster and sooner than many people would have predicted and that probably to a large degree such as why we have had violent stock market recovery. we keepi am curious why

getting jobs data surprises to the upside. about public shaming in a way. caroline and i were talking about this. the not reporting it to survey. is that having to do with any of this? joe: this is an extremely weird time to measure data. we have never seen anything like this period before. york, thef us in new news business, there is so much discussion of, you have got to be really careful. but you have got to be open to the fact that many people have decided to resume normal life. whether it is a good idea or not , the fact that more and more

people are just deciding that it is worth taking the risk. in the long term, that could come back to bite us. but at this point, it is translating into clearly improved data and you see it all over the place. caroline: have you had your cocktail delivered to you yet? joe: i have had take-out cocktails. caroline: that is what i mean. definitely picked them up curbside. caroline: and then driven with it on tasted it until you get home. "bloomberg technology" is next. what -- romaine: happy birthday, hudson. this is bloomberg. ♪

to "bloomberg technology." stocks rising yet another day. investors hopeful about the continuing reopening of the economy despite new waves of covid-19 in multiple states. arizona, florida, oklahoma and texas, just to name a few. along with beijing, which appears to be going back into lockdown. the president touting a new infrastructure