>> no one at this point has a great sense for what earnings will be in 2020 or in 2021. >> defense focus should be on the real economy -- the fed's focus should be on the real economy, and let financial markets take care of himself. >> we are going to be in a slow growth world for a very long time. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. we celebrate the opening of new york city, bound and determined to happen on this perfect middle june day.

we celebrate the opening of the united kingdom to sport. they can do it. we can't. there's no question about that. apple will come out today and do the virtual dog and pony, or whatever they do in the talk about new stuff at apple. and also, we look at the markets, which are up nicely. jon ferro, there is sort of an effervescence to this monday, even off of the odd political news over the weekend. jonathan: i would say take a look at the german debt market. the 30 year yield has just turned negative once again on the session. subzero german 30 year yields. i have no idea what the bond market is meant to tell you anymore, given the president of the ecb on the fed. what is the story you take away from a bond market that is in a central bank induced coma, and has been for several months? tom: i look at the swiss 20 year

, but the german 30 year can tell you a lot as well. that tells you about the common nation of governor bailey with an essay for bloomberg news, really talking about the horse before the court with those balance sheets, and then our conversation with william dudley in the last hour about the to do list for the fed, with a $10 trillion balance sheet. lisa: there's a really good question jon raised. what does the market tell us at this point, given the fact that central banks around the world are pushing yields ever lower? my question is, when does this get to be a question of sovereignty, of the dollar, of gold?ro, and of today we are seeing that story very much surging. i think this is somewhat a testament to the idea of money printing that seems somewhat endless around the world. jonathan: a celebration -- tom: a celebration here in new york. i want to take this moment before get to jane foley, i

thought the celebration of the opening of the english premier league here after this horrific pandemic was extremely well executed. what were your thoughts as they lead all of global sports in opening first? jonathan: so far, so good, although i think we are all aware is what it will take is one covid-19 case of one particular team, that has plagued with another team and another group of players, and this could all unwrap to quickly come although they have shown the way pretty strongly. i think we are all on the same page when i say so far, so good. but it won't take long to unravel quickly. tom: it was really extraordinary. right now, let us turn to economics, finance, investment, and more on morning exchange than anyone in the world. we can do that with jane foley of rabobank. she is exceptionally attuned to not only with the speculators

are doing, but also the commercial banking interests of her rabobank. i have to start with the dollar. i noticed looking today at the bloomberg dollar index that it was basically just resilience for four years, even pushing into five years of relatively strong dollar. that has been a great missed call. when did we finally see the dollar give way to a consensus weakness?h is dollar jane: like you say, the consensus for a number of years has been a weaker dollar. finally, the dollar bears are saying this is going to be the year we see the weaker dollar because a little bit of that money printed and we have added the extra liquidity we saw at the fed. i think the answer really will be in risk appetite because it is not just this year we have seen correlation between the dollar and emerging-market stocks. this has been going on since at

least 2018, and it seems to me that the answer to the dollar's trend will be in in emerging markets. if the market is competent to keep investing in e.m., the dollar will go down. if it isn't, it won't. the dollar will still have a safe haven, so if we do have another wave, if we do have, later in the year, markets are really concerned that stockmarkets got ahead of themselves, in that instance, the dollar is likely to do well. but of the market carries on in this line stupor of optimism on dollar bank money, the could suffer. jonathan: is this your way of saying don't waste your time on rate differentials? jane: they are the bread-and-butter clearly a foreign exchange, but it has changed. for instance, we consider it as a carry trade. we use to sell the air and

buy the dollar. people switched to the mexican peso as a carry trade. but perhaps now, you have a lot more choice. have -- interest rates will always be important, but i think what we have, as we all know, in terms of crisis, we have this correlation with risk on, risk off, and a new sort of environments have we left detail. jonathan: let's talk about the characteristics of this particular regime. the march contraction we saw in was market singly the euro becoming be funding currency of choice. then it quickly unwound. have you seen that build up in any particular way that we need to think about more?

we've got to remember that the eurozone has an enormous cap. what we saw when we saw the big selloff in e.m. in particular, we always see some of the dollar i think it's held up relatively well against the u.s. dollar. bundlinghat we saw was back to the g10, but europe held up well. we had two pieces news which i think were significant to the euro. we had the cb really putting its mouth -- the ecb really putting its money where his mouth was and say, look. we do not one fragment patient in europe. stuff going to buy this that sort of talk, which helped the euro. of course, we also had the european commission budget proposal. that was a step forward. clearly, that has got to be

ratified, but you still got the euro really buoyant on that. so i think they are in a neutral point on the back of european news, and that is significant. still veryollar is much the funding choice of many countries, and that is why the federal reserve open at swap line and expanded it dramatically in the wake of the dollar crunch we saw in march. last week marks the first time the fed started to taper that, and people are expecting that continue. the demand for dollars coming down. does that tell you the dollar crunch is over, that this could be a potential risk with the dollar surging again if there is a liquidity shortage around the world? jane: i think it tells you at least for now that the eye of the storm has passed. -- we wouldn'the have stockmarkets where they are now if we were still in the eye of the storm.

look at our screens every day and see worrying news about coronavirus in the u.s., and we see the rate rising again in germany or brazil, and we know we are going to face that economic news as well. know there's another wave, and if there is another be thatbelieve it will central banks have to react if that does happen. tom: i got killed this weekend. i lost so much money on the tots, it is incalculable. where can i make that money in foreign exchange in the next six months? which pair gets it done? jane: i think the trade you might be putting on today could be very different to the trade he were putting on in six months time. it very much depends on whether he get that second wave or not.

if you are extremely confident then we will, maybe you will make on out of the dollar. picture inthe same the aussie dollar that we see in many stock market, and if we see a lot of good news in the price, a clearly means that the market is more susceptible to bad news. i do think we've got some retracement to go, potentially a lot of retracement, but certainly some in the next few months. concerned about sterling if we do not get a trade deal soon, which we need between the u.k. and the eu. i think sterling could be quite vulnerable. jonathan: we've got to spend some time talking about brexit in the not-too-distant future. i am sure you can hardly wait. great to catch up with you this morning. come ono clarify bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio, every time you for to the

tots, a north london football club called the spurs. maybe we can get that in the chi at the bottom of the theamy -- the chyron at bottom of the screen. tom: the spurs are in san antonio, so it is tots. jonathan: no, it is not the spurs. just spurs. coming up on this program, we will be talking to tom frieden, the former director of the cdc himself come on phase two of this reopening process alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz. morning, good morning to you all. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. north and south america accounted for almost 2/3 of new

coronavirus cases. the death toll in brazil has passed 50,000, and cases across the u.s. sunbelt surge. there were a record 4500 new cases in california. florida reported more than 4000 cases saturday. bank of england governor andrew bailey has secured a major shift in strategy for removing emergency stimulus. -- hestretching the need is stressing the need for fiscal stimulus. the disappointing turnout at president's rally in tulsa was the latest warning for his campaign. the rally attracted far fewers than the president and his advisers -- attracted far fewer than the president and his .dvisers attracted so far an -- russia is

president vladimir putin says he will consider running in 2024. he says the hunt for any -- one provision would allow putin to stay in office until 2036. german payment for wirecard admits that a missing $2.1 billion from cash on its balance sheet probably doesn't exist. the company has now withdrawn its recent financial results are it wirecard says that christian of business with third parties is not correct. it is renegotiating. -- it is renegotiating. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. trump: despite the fact that i have done a phenomenal job, i shut down the united heavily -- toly

verily i -- to very heavily infected china in late january, months earlier than other people would have done it, if they would have done it all. i saved hundreds of thousands of lives. jonathan: an underwhelming start to the president's campaign in a half-empty stadium in tulsa, oklahoma. in new york city this morning, good morning to you all. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," one hour in 12 minutes away from the cash open. the opening bell is just around the corner, with equity features up to 26 on the s&p 500's, around 0.9%. we look to add some weight to the weekly gain in equities on the s&p 500 this morning. in the bond market, treasury yields unchanged. your 10 year 0.69% in foreign exchange. the dollar has been weaker through much of the session. cable firmer by around their .4%. that is a stronger pound.

a really curious op-ed from bank of england governor andrew bailey this morning in bloomberg opinion. i thought it was quite interesting he is talking about the exit months ahead of when happen.ect it to traditionally, what we've got use to in terms of communication over the last 10 years is that in reverse. rate hike first, then shrink the balance sheet. i thought it was interesting that the bank of england governor chose now to start talking about how they may or may not exit way into the future. tom: how independent was that statement? do the rest of the people who make decisions in england agree with the governor? jonathan: on the mpc, this is the governor's voice. the bank of england, very independent. very, very and dependent still thought i will say they have worked a whole lot more closely with the treasury. treasury officials do actually

get to go to some of these bank of england meetings regularly and set aside them and look at what is going on, but this is still an independent institution. but i think you are right to point out that this is the governor's voice on bloomberg opinion, not a reflection of the view of the committee. i am sure a lot of people on that committee will have their own on how we should on on should unwindwe things in the future. tom: right now we are going to reflect on the reopening of new york with tom frieden. he was at the cdc, with groundwork in africa on various viruses, including ebola. tom frieden is always someone i have to thank because he was the piñata on stricter smoking rules in new york city, and trust me, the daily cigar had to give way to something less regular because of your rules, which now are really applauded, i should point out, not only across new york city, but worldwide.

is an important , funded insave lives part by bloomberg philanthropies. quite a celebration today within a first wave or second wave. simply put, do the masks work on the streak of new york city -- on the streets of new york city this morning? tom f: masks are really important. if you've got a choice between shutting down your economy or wearing a mask, it is a no-brainer. i talk about the three w's. where a mask, wash your hands, and watch your distance. these are the three things we can do to contribute to restarting the economy. look around. we are not at the end of the first wave. we have cases spiking all over the country. we are going to see an increase in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths from this. we are sick and tired of staying

home, but the virus is not tired of making us sick. it is still out there, and we have to be more careful. i think the two most important things are what we can do. that's the three w's. especially if you are within six feet of somebody. and the government has to do the box in strategy better. test, isolate, contact tracer, and quarantine. those four corners are essential, and then we can keep the virus in smaller spaces. you may have seen an article yesterday in "the new york times" about a disastrous start to new york city's contact tracing program. for some reason, inexplicably, they moved the contact tracing program from the agency i use run that does a deep rate job -- that does a great job to a hospitals corporation which does

not have the experience or legal authority. guess what? not going well. i am really hopeful that hunter cuomo will reverse that horrible mistake that mayor de blasio made -- that governor cuomo believed reverse that mayor de blasio made. lisa: that is what i want to ask struggle of trying to get back in the offices and on the subways. where are we? tom f: it is going to be a question of individual decisions. if you are older or if you have an underlying health condition, you really want to be very careful. i would not want to be in a packed office if i had an underlying health problem. it is still too early, too risky. however, if you don't have anyone in your household that is medically vulnerable, or someone with a problem with their heart come other lungs, the kidneys,

if you don't have someone medically vulnerable in your environment, you are safer to go out, but again, mask, wash your hands, watch your distance. what we really are concerned about is large indoor spaces with lots of people mixing. and we really need the government to step up because if you don't have good contact tracing, case become clustered, clusters become outbreaks, outbreaks become epidemics, and we have to shut things down again. jonathan: thomas friedman, thank you very much for joining us. the former cdc director. tom keene, wear a mask, wash your hands, watch your distance. phase two, it is going to be interesting to see how each individual state tries to control travel. quite clearly the epicenter going back a few months was new york. now the epicenter for recent outbreaks are elsewhere.

i think it is going to be the story to watch in the next couple of weeks. tom: what i have learned is that i have no idea how to do sporting events. i just think it is done. we are getting into college football season. i don't see how those events happen. jonathan: you keep bringing up sport. why can't we play baseball? tom: i think you saw it with the english premier league this weekend. the noise in the stadium and all. baseball could do the same thing. american sports compared to english football has dropped the ball. jonathan: it is a noncontact sport. you would think that would be something we can do. why can't we do it with baseball as well? lisa: i am not an expert on baseball, but from what i have read, it seems there are disputes among the players in the league, so there are some other issues here also stymieing the start of baseball. jonathan: don't worry about not being an expert.

tom is not much of one either. you are in good company this morning. [laughter] good morning to you all. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ you say that customers make their own rules.

let's talk data. only xfinity mobile lets you switch up your wireless data whenever. i accept! 5g - everybody's talking about it. how do i get it? everyone gets 5g with our new data options at no extra cost. that's good. next item - corner offices for everyone. just have to make more corners in this building. chad? your wireless your rules. only with xfinity mobile. now that's simple easy awesome. switch and save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. plus get $200 off a new samsung galaxy s20 ultra.

jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance. " we are live on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. alongside tom keene i'm jonathan ferro with lisa abramowicz. one hour away from the opening bell. positive aftergh a negative session at the end of last week. futures right now, 26 point on the s&p 500, up .8%. treasury yields. 10-year 0.6. weaker dollar. like we needfeel to know what you're trying to do. these noises are sounding weird.

that was crowd noise. [laughter] on bloomberg surveillance we are doing data checks during the pandemic with crowd noise in the background. -- jonathan: crowd noise. it is not projected into the stadiums. it is just sitting at home watching tv. you haveve the app, the option to turn the sound on. like to hear the coaches and the players. i want to hear that kind of thing. in terms of the experience of being in your living room and watching a match, i think you need the atmosphere of the crowd. even though you know it is not real, it is not bad. lisa: stop the crowd noise. tom: it is a little bit better than that -- jonathan: it is a

little bit better than that. that is not what it sounds like. tom: the nuances are great. to bring in the football crowd ryding.john english you think about premier league football this weekend? spirits andted my the champions play this weekend. we blew a one nothing lead and ended up tying with loot in town. of it.never heard , unlike somespirit of the numbers on the virus spread. microcosm,aks to the the micro decisions being made in this recovery. are you enthusiastic that it can sustain to a legitimate better global economy into next year?

i agree with chairman powell last week when he said a the recovery requires public to be very comfortable with going back to doing what that maybe needs a vaccine. was veryious guest insightful. the states that have seen a ,ickup in the contagion rate that has continued over the weekend. that is cases. those cases are rising at a rate of around 10% per day. testing.t is from more epidemiologist, but

we need to keep our eye on this because it is the virus versus the economy versus the markets. jonathan: let's talk about this. we will not ask you to pretend to be in epidemiologist. that is not what we do on this program. you input the information you're getting on the pandemic side into how you project the recovery going forward? you see the increased rate of infections as inevitable bumps in the road on the path to recovery, or something that could derail? john: we do not know. our approach has been two fall. one to have near-term tracking of the data. the data show a fairly good rebound in economic activity in may going into june. projections around the virus resurgence and one

where the resurgence is contained, and see how we are tracking versus those two things. what we know from the cdc website is in a number of case the case rate is going up rapidly. there is an interesting website by the founders of instagram, rt. life, which tracks the reproduction number and now has r valueates with an greater than one, which means each person infects more than one person. the data suggest problems with the reopening. i think your guest's advice, your previous guest's advice was absently correct and should not be difficult for people to follow.

we will have a strong rebound in the fourth quarter, no doubt about that. jonathan: market participants seem to be focused on the tolerance of policymakers not to re-implement shutdowns and stay home and shelter-in-place orders. that is one side of the story. the other side of the story will be how businesses respond. we got a glimpse of that with apple on friday. do you see that as a taste of things to come? john: there's a third part of the story. a wholets -- there is branch of covid economics. the first shutdown came because of government efforts to prevent the spread. that constraint behavior so consumers cannot spend. they got income funding from support programs. as those constraints eased, we

saw strong rebound in retail sales. whatpart of inflation is do businesses and consumers choose to do? that is not something the government can legislate. right now we are experiencing the lifting of constraints. should the virus spread become troublesome for individuals, it will not matter what government restrictions are. people choose not to get engaged in the economic activity. how to get jobs back and restaurants and bars and leisure and entertainment and sports, which all involve people being comfortable in close contact you. that is why we need medical assistance and effective treatments or vaccine to get people comfortable and get those parts of the economy back. behaviors may be by businesses .nd may be more restrictive

wea: that is a reason why have been talking a lot about this bridge to the other side being built by the fed and the federal government with loans. it is a question about the biggest banks and how sustainable their balance sheets will be going forward. we do not know how long the bridge has to last. we do not have the answers to the medical questions. later this week the federal reserve full release of stress test and possibly provide recommendations on dividend payments. given the fact that you have had experience advising the president of the united states on this type of issue, do you think it is advisable for the big banks to stop paying dividends? john: i would not have the expertise and experience to advise the banks what to do. is two parts of funding to companies have been open.

the banking system has been open and has extended 700 billion's of cn i loans. market has been originating loans at a rate more than $1 trillion faster than we saw in 2019. and thes have been open capital market has been opened. the fed is there to do what is needed. about thehat worried financing bridge to the economy. the bridge that has been very successful so far has been filling the income gap. hat has come at a tremendous fiscal cost. we face a number of fiscal cli s ffs in terms of the unemployment benefits expiring at the end of july joint it is the income

bridge that may be of more than the lending bridge. the lending bridge at the fed is more effectively in place and will be there as the fed balance sheet grows. the support for the states and things like that are issues congress will have to come back and look at again in the months ahead. jonathan: always good to get up with you. good luck to preston. john ryding. just on the capital markets, it is fascinating comparing investment companies like amazon, what they are borrowing money at, compared to what an airline is borrowing money at. this speaks to the haves and

have-nots in this market right now. if you're investment-grade coming of a strong balance sheet, you are borrowing at exceptionally low cost. if you are outside of that at the bottom end of high-yield in an impaired industry, you are still getting punished. this market is still discriminating. lisa: that has been the message and giving some people off is him, -- some people optimism. their sole discretion, even though the federal reserve is acting, as one investor described it, like a helicopter parent. that discretion is shrinking. if you look at the gap between higher tier and lower tier debt, it is collapsing. if you miss the rally, you've been wrong. people are seeing that and it is bleeding into the riskiest of debt. jonathan: that is been the story of last couple of weeks and it is a good point. the reason for yield is getting that much more prominent. you hear it in conversation with

fixed income portfolio managers. a lot more than last several weeks. tom: totally agree and it harkens back to 2006-2007. i will not mince words about that. jonathan: from new york city, good morning. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro together with lisa abramowicz. this is bloomberg surveillance live on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta president trump is urging republicans to oppose a democratic bill and please reform said to come up with her vote this week. the president says the measure would destroy our police. republicans have their please reform legislation. president trump plans to announce new restrictions on work visas today. an estimated 240,000 people in the u.s. industries across

hospitality to technology. in new york city, companies have been allowed to reopen after three months shut down. employees reluctant to go back. closed, remaining others will open at reduced occupancy. in the u.k., boris johnson will set out more lockdown easing plans. he will outline which parts of the economy will be allowed to reopen in july. he is also expected to relax social distancing rules. that would be a huge boon to the british leisure industry. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> these rules and norms about how business response to the crisis in order to make abouters feel better

restaurants or entertainment, these will of that people employed, these will affect business investment, and those are ingredients about thinking about the prospect of recovery. jonathan: catherine mann of citigroup, formerly of the oecd weighing in on the recovery going forward as new york city reopens and enters phase two of process. from new york city, good morning. alongside tom keene i'm jonathan ferro together with lisa abramowicz coming you down to the opening bell. as i get ready to step away, i will be catching up with subadra rajappa of socgen, trying to get our hands around the argument as to whether the pandemic we are seeing in spots around america, and apple backing away is a bump in the road or the first sign of derailing this recovery in the optimism. headlines,makes the but there are a lot of other micro events occurring, particularly in arizona.

hard hit texas as well. interesting to see in the coming days. right now we want to reset on apple computer. 170% from june 3 of last year. all of the developers got together with mr. cook. they do that again this year virtually. rbc us is robert muller of who considered apple stock. how enthusiastic are you about the stock? did you increase your target? robert: we increased our target last week. under no growth scenario they can drive 4% eps growth. ,he rest of the s&p 500

favorable waste off of that. we are at 394 our price target. most will be coming from the -- tom: if i made the assumption, when you are as large as apple, it is hard to move the needle. what does mr. cook not want to do today at the developers conference? they will do the usual product launch and ship launch. what does he want to avoid? what does he want to not say? touched onhink you it with the pandemic overhang. he probably wants to stay away from that and focus on the positive. there is not too much from the downside, a misstep. a lot of it is pretty well understood. a lot of these updates will be more incremental. i do not expect anything too over the top.

we just got potential new chipsets within the mac computer. that could help other product lines. those are on the margin. i think it will be more of a separation event that any large driver. lisa: there is a lot to celebrate given apple success and how much they are the stock market with a couple of other stocks. they might not want to talk about the pandemic, but they have to talk about the pandemic, especially because they brought the entire index lower on friday after announcing they may reach out some of their stores and hutterf the areas -- res their stores and some of the harder hit areas. can you give a sense of how they are determining whether or not to reclose stores? robert: they have shown good caution. they were early to shut down on china. they have had a measured approach to going back online. they shut down early in the

united states. they will be cautious. i think most market participants want a longer term outlook where there's is a post-5g launch. the next few months will not be as important from a longer-term valuation perspective. a lot of people will be holding onto their phones. you will not upgrade at full price your home ahead of launch if you think there'll be the greatest and newest product. if you going to shut down, this is probably a time to do so. i think be measured and cautious and watch the data. at some point consumer spending power has to play into apple success. how much is apple recession proof versus susceptible to some type of hit given the fact that people are seeing their jobs eliminated at their incomes drop? robert: we can make the case for both sides of the corn -- both sides of the coin.

it is discretionary. it is so ingrained in your everyday life. to simple stuff that can help online, applying to jobs online, taking phone interviews, it has become a strong need in your life to have a phone. it is something you will be patient about elsewhere. if you have a broken phone that does not work and you need to upgrade, i think he will cut the corners where you can. it is an affordable luxury as well. looked at the share buyback program last week, and it has been a linear function from 2015. do you assume through the years they trip in every quarter and do a continued share buyback like we have seen for the last four years? robert: that was the crux of the note we put out, we did a deep dive into their buyback program.

we do not expected to accelerate. --will keep in that 7080 that $70 billion to $80 billion a year. think about what the numbers mean. $70 billion a year, year in, and year out is pretty phenomenal. i think they will keep that going steady. they want to get to cash neutral over time. they have about $100 billion to reach that target. with our numbers, there is zero organic growth, which we find unlikely. it will take to mid-2023 to reach the cash neutral position. growth,ssume 3% to 4% that could go onto the next decade with a moderate topline growth. they are in a great position to continue that buyback. tom: that was brilliant work when i saw that research. i said that is something. withview, robert muller

rbc. thank you for joining us with his enthusiasm. to be clear, if apple flat lines, they can buy back stock for x number of years. if you give them even a nominal growth rate or even a real gdp growth rate that could continue with use of stocks to buy back stock well out to a decade. lisa, what are you looking forward to this week? what is on your mind? lisa: i want to see how the reopening happens. i am hoping people will get pulled out of their homes and go outside and do things and get tired at night so they do not watch fireworks all night. i am also interested in the thursday jobs data, as well as those stress tests. very interesting with respect to dividend payments. tom: it is interesting to say the least. fireworks are tangible. and sirensireworks

through the manhattanite. new york city reopens. coming up, a conversation with james bullard. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good

morning, good morning. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. we begin with the big issue. as new york city enters phase two the reopening process, are we seeing inevitable bumps in the road elsewhere or something that might derail the recovery entirely? >> we are in the middle of the game. >> a very brutal dislocation we've been through. >> it is not over. >> nowhere near the end of the game in terms of the crisis. >> the tourism industry, the airlines are really struggling. >> you need people to feel comfortable sitting does joe from people on a plane. support for af longer period of time. >> otherwise it is not a sustainable recovery. >> what the recovery looks like, i am not sure. >> people have looked for v-shaped recovery. >> the idea we could have av or any number of