another round of new virus cases across the u.s. throwing re-openings into disarray. barrings consider americans from entry when borders reopen. steven mnuchin speaks on a stimulus pack passed in july and the virus's impact on small businesses is still unknown. easing of lockdown measures in england and experts insist the virus will persist until 2021. tom keene in new york. the markets trying to figure out the number of cases increasing in coronavirus and the impact it has had on the economy through the lockdown and that is driving the markets today. tom: markets may be adjusting but i can't emphasize enough that reversal of mood in america. there was a moment some 80 days

ago where i was on 101st street in new york and i counted seven ambulances, two of them working very quickly with very sick patients. it's not new york, washington, or boston. it's across the nation. i use this word very selectively. it is grim this morning in the sunbelt of america. francine: it certainly is when you look at the numbers. we will get to our number. we spent a lot of time looking at the number of people infected by one person. let's get to the bloomberg first word news. mentioned, some of the biggest states seeing a jump in coronavirus infections and that has thrown reopenings into disarray. cases surging in texas, florida, and arizona. california broke a record for new cases.

county, florida has become the latest jurisdiction to make wearing masks mandatory. borders are open again the european union may keep americans out. they are discussing lifting the ban on non-essential travel at the beginning of next week. hispoint being looked at u.s. citizens not being allowed into the eu because europeans are still barred from the u.s.. boris johnson has launched the biggest gamble on his premiership. he announced a dramatic lifting of lockdown measures and is urging the public to go out and start spending. the goal is to save the economy but the risk is a second spike of coronavirus infections. major league baseball players and owners are saying play ball, they have settled their differences and agreed to have a season. it will be the shortest in more than a century. the teams will play 60 games and

the season will start the third week of july. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom: very good. equities, bonds, currencies, and gold. we are on an $1800 an ounce watch on gold. like agartman looks genius this morning, without question the trade of the last 18 months with the exception of amazon and apple. gold to the moon. surging. and we seepull back some mixed dollar strength. it's very odd markets. >> i do think it's odd markets because we are trying to figure out what to look at. there are a number of stories

that are important and i think markets are trying to understand the spread of the virus which is difficult for anyone, let alone the market. they are trying to figure out whether the spreading and the number of infections rising could cause policymakers to slow or reverse the pace of business is reopening. the eu considering whether to keep up ban on americans entering the block. european stocks down from 1.2%. thes also looking at off dollar, we had some comments from central banks. to showr thing i wanted you is austria today selling another 100 year bond. that, i willknow have to buy that. francine: they are trying to lock in this low cost. joining us to talk more about

head ofets is a global economics and strategy research. when you look at what the markets are not sure about it is the possible lockdown. when you look at what kind of recovery, how patchy will it be given that everything is uncertain and we don't know if there will be lockdowns or if the economy will reopen smoothly? notn: the initial phase is patchy at all because you are coming off of a low base and that is what is carrying the market. we are seeing dramatic improvements in things like mobility indicators from google improved, those have dramatically since late april -- arend: we are in this phase where restrictions have been removed and we see the economy responding. when you get to something like 70% or 80% of normal which is where we will end up, which sectors are viable at those

levels of normalcy? that's when things get more patchy, you normalize and you have the trade economically trying to figure out where npl's are going and firm closures. happens and you find this out in a couple of months, what are the indicators? seeing, allyou are the big data indicators everyone is looking at if you take the global numbers we have gone from 60% of movement to 80%. it is better in developed markets, from 70% to 90%. that is where the big virus spike is. most of the restrictive countries we look at rn em. there is a clear divide. in aggregate things are clearly improving. a four to sixhas week lag to confirm what does

mobility indicators are telling us. we had flash pmi's yesterday that tell you the same story as civilian indicators. have the initial shock effective reopening which is going from nowak video to some activity then you settle in at levels where you don't know where things are going. i think we have to wait and see how employment behaves once you taper the furlough schemes. that is going to take a couple months to figure out. we won't know until summer where we really stand. tom: i am glad you bring this up. i think it's so important the idea that on this june day folks are beginning to frame the end of august into september. i don't have the facts in front college of maine canceling its fall athletic programs. we are beginning to make the decisions. what will be them decisions --

the decisions the major central banks will make as they look to september? they have exited emergency mode. purchasede day pace of asset programs come down. now they are in wait and see mode. at that point what they should do is tweak the qe program. rates are going nowhere for the next few years. the only thing they will be doing is trying to figure out whether they need a pop up in qe programs to not run out of money. if you think about the ecb program at the current purchase pace they will run out by february and the program is supposed to run until june. the u.k. is an interesting one thing-- the disappointing about the meeting was how much they intend to slow the purchase space.

they may step up purchases in the fall. it is going to be tweaks, not much more than that. in the case of the fed what has been missing and payrolls spooked to them, they are telling you they are not going to do anything until 2023. something you could get in the fall. i have to ask the gentleman from the union bank of switzerland about gold on the 1800 watch. what does it signal to see this surge in gold? interesting and there is a risk aversion because of the second wave. despite some risk assets trying to grind higher on the hopes of recovery you are looking for hedges and that is what the gold price is reflecting.

moving forward it is tricky because on the one hand we will see of the climb in real rates. inflation will start to organize because oil and things like that are recovering. if the data wins out and we start to recover and look at 2021 that should reduce any hedges. tom: thrilled that he is with us this morning, much more to talk about. any number of good conversations ,oday on our virtual conference one of those is a member of the international monetary fund. this is bloomberg.

♪ think you are going to see the economy had a very bad second quarter, i think you will see a spectacular rebound off the bottom of the fourth quarter. >> we expect real gdp to come back to 2019 levels by the end of 2021. our think the resiliency of economy is such that we will power through this. it's not going to be a classic v shape. >> it will be subpar below trend, more of a u-shaped recovery. >> we are seeing a lot of things rebound and that is taken as a sign that we are on the path to recovery. in the u.s. and much more so in

the developing world. >> we will not have a glow bust global recovery and less the whole world is recovered. invests, some of the voices we see on bloomberg invest global it will be interesting to look back at those voices in six months after the election and see what they say. this was the widely anticipated, this is the first new york times -- when i looked at the numbers i thought it was a typo but i guess it is not. the pleasureses -- president 50% -- 50 to 36%. we will see how that unfolds during the morning. the austrian piece. targeting 3.1

billion of european union and united kingdom products for new tariffs and that is if you can fly there to bring the stuff home. arend is with ubs. could there not be a worse time for any nation to reintroduce tariffs? arend: that is fair. the damage that all the tariff stuff did last year is going to pale in significance to the collapse in trade we are having because of the virus. there could not be a worse time. we have seen the wto, the number i have in my head is -18% on a trade. explain the profound this and the impact of the collapse in world trade that seems out of the history books. than 2008is less bad or 2009. to get global trade

volume data tomorrow. theooks better than what wto was guessing, maybe something like -15. i think it is undoubtably going to be a pretty shocking number but we also know that things are stabilized in may and will be better in june and to some extent it is a mirror image of what is happening in the economy. i don't think it will surprise anybody. ofhave been looking at a lot global shipping and that was down less than people would've expected a couple months ago. the wto had to revise their estimates of how bad things will be. if there is a positive surprise it's that the supply chains have held up at her and the trade does not follow as much as thise have weird because is a service goods crisis not a merchandise goods crisis. toncine: i want to come back

the u.s. targets because the .umber is quite big we don't exactly know how much the tariffs are but it targets gin, beer, potatoes, also looking at some new things are falling like luxury stocks. pressuresd-19 and the with people keeping jobs and you are in a selection hearing and you might hear -- countries will be much more inward looking so we will see less globalization. >> i think that is fair. play --ally this will as an electoral issue i would have thought that going after china would play better than going after an ally.

we will have to see where this goes. alreadyarly shelled the card tariff. ofpared to earlier threats escalation the numbers are not that big. of the outcomes of this crisis will be that governments will be more inward looking. they will have to deal with a lot of social and elect oral distrust or unhappiness because we will have a huge output gap and unemployment spikes. this is one thing governments may try to do. your? take on is china right now -- what is your take on china right now? soon to worry about deflationary pressure? arend: before the outbreak we were getting more and more positive.

the stimulus needs to be working. theyig highlight was wanted a notable increase in credit. we are seeing that in data and the property market response. the numbers are coming in and line with china having growth of 1.5 or so. not as bad as some people had feared. now is uncertainty because we have a mini second wave in beijing. we will see how the economy responds. china looks ok. we are working with a plus 30% plus 37% growth. they have seen positive growth in q2 and it is too early to get moving. tom: thank you so much. this has been timely. with us, the ubs chief economist. there will be many conversations on bloomberg invest global.

person was someone guiding the ship at goldman sachs, david solomon, look for that later today. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ francine: -- has filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. the company plans to sell itself

and close as many as 1200 of its 5200 stores. they sell vitamins, supplements, and sport nutrition products and have been struggling with store sales. on track to assemble the biggest buyout fund for asia. the private equity giant has raised more than $10 billion for its asia fund. they have been on a buying spree in setting up assets and funds during the pandemic. abig price at a discount in $20 billion sale by softbank. the japanese company selling off a chunk at a 4% discount yesterday. the firm wants to finance stock buybacks and pay down debt. that is the bloomberg business flash. quick data check.

we are back to range bound lows. weakness and risk off bringing back to figures. i 33 handle on the vix. let's call that i wonder -- i would note that gold is really beginning to move towards the 1800 level. toncine: we had that austria billion euro sale and demand for sovereign debt has been favored during the pandemic. 1%ting a yield of less than might not sound like a great deal what we had a rush for safety meaning that the century bonds have nearly doubled in value. this follows the success of their first century bond three years ago which drew 10.8 billion euros. we are looking at bonds across europe and the pound and the australian dollar at 0.69. happening live, bloomberg invest executivechief

speaking with us talking about the market and volatility going things and the big including covid-19 and how it pans out in terms of lockdown and the economy. you can head to live on the bloomberg terminal. let's listen. >> a world where each region, each big country is playing its .ame world that is multilateral and we have to be with this. not only oftance that trade deal but of more stability on trade for the flow and allocation of capital. >> data discrimination, algorithm preferences, how do we solve the economy? >> [indiscernible] judgment, responsibility. >> my work exploring that

description. >> that's the best way to challenge power. you say that customers make their own rules.

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now that's simple easy awesome. switch and save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. plus get $200 off a new samsung galaxy s20 ultra. ♪ there it is. we have been expecting this for months. the united states and the trump

administration turning east across the atlantic on tariffs on eu products. , beer, i don'tks know what her majesty's favorite beer is but i know that francine, gordon's gin is on the list which is an outrage. francine: i think what is also on the list, i can't be sure but share prices are losing seem to be luxury products coming from europe. goodbasically some of the stuff exported into the u.s.. tom: very good. we must look at what is moving in the market and if there is beenumber of things it has amazing to see the range bound nature of the market in an interview yesterday heard on bloomberg surveillance where an equity analyst pounded the table

on how ought it is that small-cap value funds -- small-cap value stocks are truly a generational low valuation versus the high flyers and saw yesterday the extent of amazon and apple. francine, i would suggest that the extension of apple was removed from the development conference. this is way beyond the product and gadgets of the developers conference and this is the american technology stocks continuing to surge. francine: the other thing we are watching out for that i know we were both watching was this austrian 2 billion euros sale. we have seen a number of options from countries across europe and one of the things that comes for someover, this is

peripheral countries or southern countries like italy, it's cheaper for a government to go through the efm and get on he that way. we will have to delve deeper into that. treasury secretary is striking an optimistic tone on the road to recovery. he says a new stimulus package could come as early as >> >> next month. the president has been clear that we put a lot of money into the economy. we had an unprecedented response on a bipartisan basis on the last tariff will. that money is having a major impact on the economy. whether it is the ppe which impacted 50 million workers and whether it is the direct payments of over 100 60 million enhanced unemployment, an important part of --

i just hosted a republican senate lunch and we have been discussing the different aspects of what it will look like because number one there is a lot of money put out -- much more targeted to the businesses that are most impacted. do you think sometime in july a bill might pass both houses? >> i do, that would be the timing. >> right now would you say that the legislation you have passed is working reasonably well? , would you say the fed has done a good a job as you would like them to do? can you say whether the president is happy or happier today with the head of the federal reserve. think the federal reserve has done a phenomenal job. we speak to them on almost a

daily basis. these programs are a combination of the work of the federal reserve and the treasury and i think we have worked well together. every single one of these programs is up and running. we have a municipal bond program and a money market program. we have a mainstream program that is up and running. a corporate primary and secondary. this led to banks and nonbanks for ppp loans. the fed acted in unprecedented response. i think you see the president -- we haveis quarter slipped into a recession according to the national bureau of economic research which makes the official determination, do you think by the end of the year we might be out of the recession? >> i do but the traditional --nomic metrics

there are way too many people that lost their jobs and got laid off. we are not going to be done until we get every single one of those people back to work. i am not focused on the technical issues, i am focused on helping all these small businesses and all the workers. that is our job and i think you saw the recent employment numbers, people thought there would be another 8 million people unemployed, we put 2.5 million people back to work. you saw great retail sales. i think you will see the economy had a very bad second quarter and i think you will see a spectacular rebound off the bottom in the third order. a principal negotiator with bob lighthizer with a deal with china. -- thathave every expectation

they will and they have a continued to tell us that they recently as last week when secretary pompeo met with one of the senior people that flew in from china and they had a summit. i had that expectation that they will lead up to their obligation. i think thecomment, world once a lot more transparency on covid. how did it start, how did it spread, how did it spread around the world and it did not spread within china. we have expectation that leads up to the trade agreements and we have expectations that need a lot more transparent -- >> we have seen the virus story

in amerian deteriorate and we will have important guests on all of bloomberg surveillance. the one thing moving in the market is gold. georgia joins us and she is wonderfully qualified to speak on gold. not only does she understand the gold market but she understands the gems that go on top of the gold with a degree in gemological science. what is the significance of an 1800 print on gold? the thing with gold prices is the momentum is strong and 1800 -- we saw around 2012 a few times. levelces would break this investors start hoping that it would move towards the all-time which was september

2011. technological born of the you is an important level in gold markets. tom: what is driving the demand? can you place it to central banks at the margin, is it detail at the margin, where is that coming from the flow of funds into gold? >> investors are interested in gold at the moment mainly because you have central banks easing a lot of qe in markets, very low official interest rates next to the monetary stimulus. he also have the fiscal stimulus and the dollar sterling. these are factors that investors which is why they are buying. if you look at the systems in the market --

markets have never been so high which is probably more the retail. there are negative rates in the eurozone in some regions at this point in time. question, what will it take for investors to take some of the profit they have in gold? if you were think to have a another risk off wave you would see some -- at some point in time -- gold has been moving higher with equities, not only with equities but -- when you get some

corrections in markets in --eral is one of the things that at some point in time everyone wants to buy that i think we are coming closer to that point than a year ago. i am more concerned about the positioning and even knowing -- thank you so much. miss ouray don't exclusive conversation during bloomberg invest global. 1:30conversation is at p.m. in new york and 6:30 p.m. in london. ♪

♪ this is bloomberg surveillance. administration is considering new tariffs on $1.2 billion of experts across germany, spain, and in the u.k.. that could widen to a larger transatlantic trade fight. they want to place tariffs on european exports like -- the u.s. senate is headed for a stalemate in police reform. democrats plan to block a republican plan that is too narrow to block a national crisis over racial inequality. democrat leader chuck schumer is demanding that democrats

negotiate a stronger bipartisan bill. treasury secretary steven mnuchin may consider a second extension to the income tax filing deadline that has been delayed from april 15 to july 15 because of the coronavirus pandemic. extend the tax deadline without needing congressional approval. americans are hitting the roads. a survey shows gasoline demand in the u.s. has improved 80% over a year ago. when the coronavirus lockdown in aprilffect demand fell by 50%. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. francine, tom? tom: thank you so much, greatly appreciated. there are all sorts of other conversations to move forward to particularly with bloomberg

invest global and with political coverage heating up the day after the primaries in america. coming up, a conversation with mr. buttigieg. stay with us from london. from new york this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ we are now seeing a disturbing surge of infections. it looks like it's a combination but one of the things is an increase in community spread and that is something i am concerned. you know this has been something that has been in the press over the last couple of days so that when, and i believe it will be when and not if, we get favorable candidates with good results we will be able to make that available to the american public within a year from when we started which would put us at the end of this calendar year and the beginning of 2021. tom: the gentleman from the

holy cross,the a brutal five hours of testimony yesterday in washington. the head of the cdc along with dr. fauci and others it was brutal. our 19,000 one of employees at bloomberg a better read on this topic than john lower mid. he spent well over a decade at bloomberg focused solely on health and we are thrilled he can join us this morning. game of second wave, first wave, it seems so dated on for --rning what are you focusing on as a pro, what are you focusing on in this pandemic? john: when we look at the u.s. right now you have to be concerned about, even dr. fauci

saying that this rise in cases is disturbing. i spoke with him just before he testified and he confirmed that --is not seeing he is not seeing an abatement in cases. ago the who was entering a dangerous phase in the development of the pandemic, a new and dangerous phase with new daily cases rising above 150,000. what you are looking at in the is a number -- reproduction number of over one which means the pandemic is continuing and the outbreak is continuing to expand. contracting, the

mitigation and the control measures that we have in place right now in the u.s., it looks like they are insufficient. john, as you know it is a parochial medical system in viewers what should our and listeners worldwide, especially in america, expect from cities, towns, mayors, and governors to do if washington and the president won't? i think what you are going to see, this is something you are already seeing. states likeme massachusetts that are seeing the number of new cases fall and they are getting control and getting their arms around the outbreak in states like that where they are mandating mask use outside of the home and

continuing to do that. admittedly these are the states with the most concentrated populations like new york. new york continues to show success. it's a much harder sell in the where you havees a more dispersed population. that does not mean the virus cannot spurted. you have people going back and forth between states. they have to think much more comprehensively and more nationally from a leadership standpoint about how they are going to control the virus. there are so many questions about what politicians are trying to do. --e in the u.k. is it still about herd immunity?

we heard the prime minister talk about herd immunity, you can't prevent people from catching it, you just have to protect the nhs or health services so they don't get overwhelmed so you can -- i am sure he has a much better grasp of what is happening in the u.k. than i do. what i do see in the u.k. now is r number is better than the u.s. and continues to be below one. they are relaxing restrictions in a stepwise manner and they confident with the country's leading scientists. the question is will people follow a device, will they wear masks inappropriate situations?

those questions remain to be and in any case it seems to be a much more orderly and slower retreat from lockdown in the u.s. right now. this is different in the u.k. than in the u.s.. the amount of control that was exerted here was much stricter to begin with than it ever was across the u.s.. thank you so much. of the at the virus, one lead editors in trying to figure out what the next step is. let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash in new york city. on the has a lot riding overhauled f1 50 pickup it is unveiling this week. the automaker has given a rare look into the finance of its cash cow franchise.

almost 900,000 pickups sold last year generated $42 billion in revenue, rivaling apple's iphone among consumer products. a spinoff ofdering its stake in vmware. the computer wake her -- the computer maker is trying to boosted shares. they went public in 2018 and during that time the composite has risen by more than 50%. bloomberg has learned that matter is at an early stage and may not result in a deal. they are looking to expand their mobility service offerings. shares of europe car have fallen 60% in the last year with a market value of or hundred or the $8 million. that is the bloomberg business flash. francine: european stocks and futures are slumping, a

resurgence in virus cases in tokyo, germany, and the american south. that sharpens concerns about the pace of the economic recovery and we have tariffs being brought on by the u.s.. downan see luxury stocks between two and 3%. beer makers also being hit quite hard. looking at gold, 1795 goals surging forward. up on gold, david rosenberg. this is bloomberg, good morning. ♪

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other story. the growth of the spread of the virus in the sun belt. florida to texas to arizona. it is abandoned the new jersey of new york. houston will run out of hospital beds in days. palm beach requires wearing a mask. america, like resume, ignores the advice of its -- like the zeal, ignores the advent -- america, like brazil ignores the affairs of the doctors. and markets, tech neural links gold.- tech darlings lift everything else is home on the very narrow range. good morning, everyone. bloomberg surveillance from new york, francine lacqua in london. francine and i decided the scandal of putting tariffs on gordon's