tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg June 26, 2020 1:00am-2:00am EDT
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♪ anna: good morning from london --nejra: good morning from london. i'm nejra cehic. united states reports a record number of coronavirus cases of florida, california, and texas, the latter pauses israel brings as cases soar. the fed says it can't boost dividends or reduce buybacks until the fourth quarter. they close higher on easing.
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u.k.'s chief negotiator rejects a proposal to avoid a no deal. him ask exclusively with he plans to shore up recovery. a lot of things for markets to grapple with. we have concerns about the record cases in the u.s. a number of states, not just texas, pausing on reopening. the initial jobless claims causing some concerns. could we see layoffs coming through, even with the reopening? we look ahead to consumer spending data in the u.s., and the news flow yesterday and overnight. on the one hand, given one hand to the bank's volcker rule, and dividends. we did see the s&p 500 yesterday. chinese markets are closed. we do see a risk on trade in equities. in terms of her features are positioned, muted, up to 10th of
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1%. 1% -- 2/10 of 1%. the bloomberg other index is pretty much unchanged. the 10 year yield is study. for oil -- is study. for -- is steady. , it's beenor oil tempered with a sharp drop in export plants. it is headed for its highest weekly decline since april. wall street lenders will soon be able to boost investments in d.c. funds and will no longer have to so many to backstop derivative trades. but the ended up falling and post market trading after the fed kept dividends answered -- capped dividends and said they can't reduce buybacks until february. united states hit a record number of new coronavirus cases.
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health departments reported over 37,000 new cases thursday. that comes as texas paused is dueng measures, which to intensive care wards which incapacity. a higher percentage of americans sought unemployment. most 20 million americans remain on state jobless benefits. u.s. durable goods were one april spot, searching 54 50.8%g 50.8 -- surging since april. there's a lot of threads to discuss here. let's start with concerns around the record cases in the u.s. and the pausing of some reopening plans. how much are you factoring this fear of the second wave in the u.s. into your strategy right now? you've got jp morgan, for
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example, looking at data from people visiting restaurants and tying that to risks of new hotspots enters of cases. a lot of research going on below the surface in terms of the second wave. so sure, we are definitely monitoring the situation closely. we are concerned about the cases in the u.s. so, i think the markets have on aed a lot in march and 12 month deal, our equity still is the market is going to be higher from here. given the spike in the cases, i think it is -- ethic markets have gotten more complacent -- i think markets have gotten more complacent because they haven't factored in potential for certain areas in the u.s. it is important not to get to bullish while the market -- too
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bullish while the market is getting higher, so we expect volatility getting higher. this is something to monitor and we're getting more concerned, but it doesn't change the equities could grant her. this is -- grind higher. nejra: how does your view on the labor market fit into that? a lot of people commenting on the data from yesterday saying even if we might get some rehiring with the reopening, there could be what has been termed a second wave of layoffs, as well. janet: yeah, so i think the labor market is something really important to watch for the u.s. i mean there has been some positive news from the claims data. it is still very high, but has been coming down separately. it is good news there is evidence people are getting back to work were very high.
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that's good news. fortunately, there -- unfortunately, there will be economic souring. there will be businesses that cannot survive. we will be looking for a higher on a plummet rate -- unemployment rate than precluded level -- pre-covid level. we'll have a concern to live with. we are moderately positive on equities, but we will not go straight on despite the massive stimulus from central banks. so, the outlook is relatively balanced. either there's upside risk, central bank stimulus, health front, the drugs to treat the coronavirus, and the economic recovery is ongoing. but there's still a lot of downside risk. so unbalanced, we're slightly
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more positive, but we're not overly bullish. nejra: right, ok, so in terms of moderately positive on the u.s., you are monitoring the situation closely. we discussed upside and downside risk, consumer data coming later, expected to show a 9.2% gain in may, one month of data, but you might look at that as a bright spot, along with goods we got yesterday. but do we have an -- you have enough cash to deploy in the u.s. market if things get better? or would you rather put that elsewhere? cash: yeah, so we do have that we can deploy, but we have actually cut some exposure of our u.k. commercial province. that sector is particular report. it's got news -- particularly
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poor. it's got news from the u.k. that rent is being collected in the latest quarter, only 50% of levels -- 15% of levels. they are only paying 30% of rent. these are big changes. they are also struggling. commercial property in the u.k. is quite bad. so, you look at various sectors. but we have to cash out from commercial orders and we will deploy the. dachshund deploy that. we -- deploy that. we will deploy that in equity markets. nejra: in terms of the banking sector, a little bit of easing on the volcker rules on one hand, but statements about buybacks and dividend, although after see stocks decline
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hours. are you concerned about the easing of regulations in terms of the vulnerability of the financial sector with the pandemic backdrop? a lot of people have said it's to 2008 because the baking sector is more stable. but does this cause you concern if we get regular easing alongside but we have got in the rest of the economy? janet: i think this can be a concern. think there's more taking in the banking sector, and that can be a problem because interest rates are so low and their providing so much liquidity. so there's a lot of money to play with. if there is a prologue -- prolonged worst-case area -- worst-case scenario, this can
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potentially be quite detriment to -- detrimental to the u.s. banking system. of course we're talking about the worst case scenario, which is not our base case. e worst case near th an area the fed is talking about. so, there is risk, but i think it is manageable as long as the economy continues to recover. nejra: janet stays with us for the hour. let's get to the first word news. germany is preparing to strike back. tessler angela merkel is looking for a coordinated response over the pipeline. sources tell us despite the projects causing deep divisions, use in division may prompt a joint response. the house passed an overhaul of rules, but there is little
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expectation it will break stalemate over reform. the bill was opposed by the white house. trump is accusing democrats of wanting to weaken the police after a planter proposed by senate republicans was -- a plan proposed by senate republicans was blocked and congress. it secures survival of the largest airline after weeks of tension. one controversial aspect was a heavily discounted 20% government state. the biggest shareholder back to the dealhou -- backed just before the hoax. it's the first club ever to win the top-flight championship with seven games are meeting. coronavirus restriction student stop fans from gathering outside the stadium to celebrate. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. coming up, the new york stock
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>> people in the community, because those are the real ones, the people walking the streets and being racially profiled in being judged every day they walk in their city, they are the ones that need to be heard. nejra: that was three-time nba champion lebron james on the black lives matter movement. you can watch all of bloomberg businessweek conversation with lebron james and his business partner at 7:00 p.m. new york time on bloomberg tv. the companies listed on the new york stock exchange raised more
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than $35 billion while the trading floor was closed after capital raising an ipo. [no audio] >> give had to companies today. came up tospotify us. slack was the second company to choose that path over a year ago and we have been building on that model is to allow for capital raising. reallye direct listing does is it separates the timing, decouples capital raising from going public. you can choose to go public, but not necessarily raise money at the same time.
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so, the two, to date, have taken that path. now, what we're working on is what if you want to raise money at the same time but you like the exchange and process of opening that morning to determine how that offering gets priced? so that's the phase we're working on right now. we filed the first iteration in december and we worked productively with them on questions we had. so, the most recent question answers mechanical question on how that offering will be priced in the morning. how does it get entered into the market, and what measures need to happen that morning to get that live in public? and we've been advancing that ball so that we continue to work with issuers and investors on having another alternative to the bubbles market. david: so stacey, you're in the middle of this process. but from your perspective, is it really a mechanical issue? because it sounds like we have to work it through and it might take some time, but is not a
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substantive issue that you will -- get toh this get sooner or later? stacey: with spotify, it took us a year and a half to get through the sec, very constructive feedback and dialogue. because their goal is to protect investors and so they want to make sure they're working with us to develop a process that achieves cycle. it took us about a year and a half to get that done. we are working on this iteration. and they are not substantial issues. they're more about how does it come to market? how do investors know what to expect from a price level, a range perspective? and how do we know that all the interest gets satisfied? moreere are really mechanical issues that we're working on. i do think we will see direct listings have the ability to raise capital at the same time their listing in the not-too-distant future. we've seen stacks. we've seen over this period of time during covid-19, when the
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markets have been very turbulent, we've seen a tremendous number of acquisition corporations, which are management teams raising money, ipo'ing without having business operations yet, but planning to acquire a business. i think the fact we've seen so many come to market the past few months is really indicative of the fact there are opportunistic businesses out there. it's another way to come public. at the time, the combined entity is a public company. it's one more path to the public we have been working on. david: if this all does work out, how much difference would it make to your stock exchange? do you anticipate more companies will go public? how material would it be for the new york stock exchange? stacey: first of all, i don't think direct listings are the path for every company, but there are some considering it. we're the only ones that have held one. the fact we have human beings
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overseeing that price discovery process puts us in a unique position to be able to make sure that things are flawlessly executed, not just at a time of ipo, but especially when you look at a direct listing. what we've seen from direct listings of date are those opening auctions are much larger than the typical opening auction for an ipo. both spotify and slack were in the top five sized shares renting in the opening option of all opening auctions in history, among a list of the largest ipo's of all time, even though they, as companies, were smaller than some of those companies, really massive trades because so much price discovery is happening. that's why it's such an important part of the listing process and we're really in a uniquely positioned to a compass that. nejra: that was stacey cunningham, the president of the new york stock exchange. and you can watch more of the interview on wall street week, airing on bloomberg tv, 6:00 a.m. if you're watching saturday.
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why x asia, particularly given some of the risks with dealing with covid-19 and some of the emerging markets in latin america for example? mentioned,, so as we there is always concern about the virus, the health situation. region think is that the is more attractive and we give seen that ultimately, the converse will be resolved in the future once we've got a vaccine and we think that region is particularly economically sensitive to a global recovery. we're seeing issues on the global recovery. i understand that despite in the u.s. -- i understand there's a spike in the u.s.
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actually, there's more good news from the global economic front. you see pmi's rebalancing sharply injured. -- in june. commodities prices play a big role in driving the valuation of asia. his expectation commodities prices should pick up when economic recovery is ongoing. we think demand for oil, industrial metals will benefit. nejra: janet stays with us. interesting your thoughts on the global recovery there because there's plenty coming up on daybreak europe, including the shape of the recovery. askedt, we hear from eric -- hear from our guest at the bloomberg summit. this is bloomberg. ♪
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in termsso see a big v of the economy going up for the next few months. >> i think there's a real danger of confusing rebound with recovery. >> i have been most surprised by the lack of panic. >> not all things go up equally and it will take quite a while backe we sync up and get to 2019 levels. >> the equity market does seem to be a little bit ahead of my view of the future earnings performance of businesses as we look six to 12 months out. if that's true, we'll see a rebalancing over time. >> true recovery means you're at least as well of as you were before the crisis started. >> we will not have a robust
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global recovery unless all the world is recovered, and that includes the emerging markets. >> my view is that covid is more of a u-shaped coverage rather than a v-shaped recovery. >> we expect real gdp to come back to the 2019 level by the end of 2021. there is going to be a lot of repair to be done the system -- in the system. the nike swoosh, everything else, david ingles charges from hong kong. what about the recovery? david: a lot of those things they mentioned there is starting to show up in price and volumes. one of the things i want to bring up, when you look at volumes, it's moderated where we are into right now. it's an example of how jittery
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markets are. even the slightest hint of potential bad news, they start jumping at that. a lot of that comes around to in many markets, we're on track for the best quarter and 11 years. traders are, in a lot of ways, the propensity to polish pianos , andhe good after -- pno's the good after. this graphic is a perfect example of that with shorts and limiting of downside. a lot of the people we talk to here remain invested, but they remain invested in the names that have so far delivered gains. there has not yet been this shift in this paradigm shift to things like cyclicals, for example, that were dumped substantially. so while things have moved up, it seems we might have moved up a little bit too much, especially as we had into earnings season -- head into
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earnings season. nejra: that interesting because we have seen jitters and markets, but nothing in a significant drawdown. how does it set up for next week and the second have? david: right, second week, we have a lot of data points coming up, things like pmi. what is interesting to watch out for is we are headed into the second quarter earnings season. china is a good example of this. arguably, it's the place where you get the best visibility, in terms of recovery. that market has retraced all the way back. yet forecast on growth remain 1.8%. we haven't gotten revisions there, as well. this takes us into earnings capacity conversation. just because the economy shrank 10%, and from that level, you go up 10%, it doesn't mean you go back on top. many of our guests on those
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negotiator rejects a proposal for no-deal. we speak with the chancellor on how he plans to shore up the recovery. it looks like some of the concern was coming through an equity markets earlier in the week. it seems to have gone away a little bit in yesterday's session and looking at today, a lot of green on the screen in asia in terms of how u.s. futures are positioned. not necessarily pointing to a rally that will match what we saw, the more than 1% gain in yesterday's session, but european futures are firmly on the front foot, pointing to a second day of strong gains. could some of the data be lifting sentiment? to consumers spending yesterday as well. some concerns coming through in the labor market, looking at the high existing level of continuing claims. the dollar is fairly steady. the 10 year yield goes nowhere
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as well. we are seeing oil on the front foot. there's concerns around the virus that what seems to have given a lift to oil is the outlook for russia and the fact that it is basically planning a drop in exports. u.s. regulators have approved changes to postcrisis banking rules. wall street members will be able to boost investments in funds and will no longer have to set aside money to backstop derivatives trades. capped after the fed dividends and said they cannot resume buybacks through the third quarter. the federal reserve did say the industry performed well in the annual stress test. the united states hit a record in terms of the number of new coronavirus cases. state health departments reported over 37,000 new cases on thursday. that comes as texas policy reopening measures with houston's intensive care wards reaching capacity. the pandemic hits the u.s. labor market. a higher than expected number of
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americans sought unemployment benefits. continuing claims did decline more than forecast although almost 20 million americans remain on state jobless benefits. u.s. durable goods orders were one bright spot, searching in april, the most in six years. the european central bank is insisting its bond purchases are the best way to stimulate the economy. the june governing council meeting saw officials tackle the core argument of a legal ruling against qe. how committed do you expect the ecb to be to stimulus for the rest of the year? be -- ecb will have to there will be talk about the .otential fiscal stimulus
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uncertaintya lot of on the fiscal stimulus side. the monetary side will be very important. is doing a lot of qe and they can keep doing it. qe -- 420t round of billion per month. until the end of the year, i'm sure they cannot extend that if they want. it all depends on the state of the recovery and whether more stimulus will be announced meanwhile. manus: it is interesting -- nejra: it is interesting because even after christine lagarde and the ecb went above and beyond it, there was some houses that came out straightaway, calling for more. 1.35 trillione euros, that should be understood as a ceiling according to the
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account but do you expect any increase before the end of the year? >> anything could be possible. last time the ecb kept policy on hold, slightly disappointed. as i said, it really depends on the data coming out. rebounding, which is a good sign. it may well could be a second wave. european trade tension, which could potentially derail some of the early recovery that we see and the sentiment in the markets. i think if there is more of that the ecb would deliver more because the markets would be asking for more. nejra: right. how much more upside do you see to the euro then? i thinkeah, so again, it really depends on the
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economic recovery. euronk that could be versus the dollar. it is primarily because the u.s. dollar has more potential to strengthen in the medium-term, we think. i think the interest rate differential is not a driving force at the moment, so i think if our expectation is a global recovery, we think the u.s. dollar as a safe haven would be less in the amount, so that is why it would drive the dollar growth. is more exposed to trade. trade will be the very first thing to recover. constraints are being relieved. the euro area should benefit from that. measures in of the
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our infrastructure and that potentially benefits countries like germany. the euro could have modest upsides. why is itthat case, that you choose emerging markets the cyclical exposure trade in equities rather than europe? janet: so basically, that is really dependent on the commodities. wehink, as we mentioned, think the fiscal stimulus for the emerging market -- a lot of the economies are highly dependent on infrastructure, for example. china is heavily focused on boosting infrastructure and that could intentionally raise demand for industrial commodities. the oil prices could recover from a trough further and we think that commodity exports to currencies are still lagging at the moment and also, the valuations for equities. that could potentially promote that theyen the fact
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will be higher and a global recovery -- they are more sensitive to the global recovery. we think that region is just better on the terms of valuation and also the economic recovery. nejra: janet stays with us. the u.s. has hit a new record in cases, topping the last peak seen in april. the surge is being led by -- greg abbott is holding the next phase of the states reopening. a medical expert said if current trends continue, cases in the houston area could triple or quadruple by mid july. the federal reserve is tapping think dividends and banning buybacks through september. the lender performed well in annual stress tests but the review uncovered risks associated with the coronavirus. dividends will stay at second quarter levels. won the premier
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league, its first title since 1990. it came when chelsea beat manchester city. it is the first club ever to win the top championship with seven games remaining. coronavirus restrictions did not stop fans gathering outside the stadium to celebrate. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. coming up, the u.k.'s chief brexit negotiator rejects a proposal to avoid a new deal. we discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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world about why he was kneeling when he was doing that as a san francisco 49ers, so i see that to still be wrong. now, they are listening, but i still think we have not heard that official apology to a man who basically sacrificed everything to better this world. nejra: that was lebron james on the nfl's treatment of former quarterback colin kaepernick. knee tock took a protest inequality. you can see the full conference at 7:00 p.m. new york time on bloomberg tv. to the u.k., the chief brexit negotiator rejected a potential compromise and its trade negotiations with the e.u. britain is not prepared to accept tariffs if the country makes laws in its own interest. the comments, head of a fresh round of talks next week. plans for a recovery.
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do not miss the exclusive interview after 10:30 a.m. u.k. time. janet is still with us. you were mentioning earlier that you have been cutting your commercial property exposure in the u.k. what is that based on? is it concerns around brexit? is it coronavirus? is it both? janet: so i think it is a bit more structural in nature. so basically, we are observing that the fundamentals are getting poorer. for example, as i mentioned earlier in the program, i think for factors like retail and office space, i think they are really facing a structural decline in demand. the situation is that the rent payment of these companies, they are under a big threat. the u.k., the rent collection rate is just about 15% of usual levels in the big chains, they
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were saying yesterday that they will only pay 30% of the rent due. these are companies you are talking about. we are fundamentally more negative because of these changes in the structure, demand. as people demand less office space. and they are shopping less physically. what is it about your expectations around bank of england policy and all your expectations for a fiscal stimulus that makes you say the risk will reward -- the risk reward seems negative? basically, we see that rates will be stuck at around 0% in the u.k. for a long period. we do not think there's going to be a lot of changes to the upside or the downside in terms
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of gilt yields. with gilt yields already at the lowest level ever, we do not think there is a lot to go a lot lower. sentiment is contemplating the possibility of an interest rate. i think it is still not going to happen in the near term, at least, when the economy is starting to recover. what we think is that, for example, we think that gilt yields could potentially move a bit higher when the economy recovers. that is the coronavirus situation getting better. we get more clarity on brexit. somehow, we think the risk reward is more on the negative side. nejra: thank you so much for joining us today. janet mui, investment director. great to have you with us. earlier this year, three-time nba champion lebron james and his childhood friend, maverick carter, launched a media empire with a $100 million investment. the company, springhill, aims to
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provide a voice to underserved creators and consumers. jason kelly spoke on a range of topics including the black lives matter movement and the struggle for racial equality. take a listen. i don't want to say i was anticipating it. i just want to say we have always been in this position. we have always strived because we have always had to plan for this moment. it is something that i have always had a passion about, and that is, you know, having people to understand how important we are as black america, the powers and the creativity, and the language, and everything, and the struggle, that we have had for so long. of kobe bryant, that we had to deal with, and you know, obviously, our prayers are with
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vanessa and the two daughters. that was a tragic moment for us. you know, you come to the point where the playoffs are almost around the corner. stopped because of the world pandemic. covid-19. you know, we all had to be at bay and kind of weight around and see what was going on, see what was happening, understanding that the health of every individual is so much more important at that point in time than worrying about chasing the championship because it belies that risk and no one had an answer to it. brings it up to speed in the george floyd killing, and it just -- just seeing that video and seeing how many people were hurt, not only in minnesota, minneapolis, but all over the world, especially in the black community, because we have seen this over and over and over, you know, about police brutality and the thing that goes on in the
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inner-city city when being, you know, racially profiled as an african-american black man or as a black woman, the things that's going on. there's been a lot that's gone on in 2020. we are still trying to make the most of it and continue to be powerful and continue to be heard. theg this opportunity for better of change at the end of the day. it is a special moment in the sense that you can be heard. activism has always been around. ear and a coldld mind and did not want to recognize and did not want to hear and did not want to be knowledgeable about what they were speaking, about where they were coming from, the passion they were speaking with. heard.'s being people can be heard. black americans -- african-americans, you know, can be heard. both men and women can be heard,
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what they are passionate about, and the calling for help, saying we are just tired. i don't want to say activism is something that, you know, now, everyone is doing it. no, it has always been around. in the case of george floyd and the case of so many other innocent lives being taken away, they put up a stand. and now, we are being heard, and everyone is being heard, not only from what muhammad ali was saying and so many that came before him and so many that came after him, but even the local people, the people in the community -- those are the real ones. the people that are in the community, living and walking those streets and being racially profiled and being judged every day that they walk in their city, they are the ones that need to be heard. they are being heard right now and it is great to see. nejra: you can watch the full conversation with bron james and maverick carter at seven of 1:00 p.m. on bloomberg tv. coming up, racial reckoning.
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>> i think diversity doesn't just happen. it has got to be intentional. >> i have to say it is not a unique experience for me to often be the only black person in the room or around the decision-making table. >> i think it is a moment in time we are leaders like myself need to spend a lot more time listening, trying to understand, and then actually taking steps. >> it is not a time where leaders or businesses can be neutral. they have to decide that they inclusiveto add practices and diversity into their solutions.
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>> make sure that we are actively recruiting minority candidates much earlier than you normally would in different places. >> critically important that we get african-americans who are on corporate boards and progressive leaders who are on corporate boards to hold their management teams accountable for diversity and inclusion. tied directly to their pay. >> i think more and more of our clients are choosing to deal with companies who may believe -- theirr social environmental ideals. >> the companies are now starting to realize more and more that not making progress is not sustainable. was a number of industry executives speaking to bloomberg about diversity in the workplace and the need for actionable steps to affect change. spurred on by the black lives matter protests, tech companies made promises to increase diversity in the workplace. these companies have been making such promises for years and
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little has changed. the most valuable tech companies are up and nominally white and male. our bloombergquint take a reporter joins us out of new york. this certainly has not escaped the notice of advertisers. what exactly have these companies pledged? >> these tech companies are still predominantly white and male so a lot of the black tech workers, especially, are saying enough of the lip service. we don't want to see you issue statements supporting the black lives matter movement. show us what you actually doing. we saw some of the big players like apple, microsoft, google, and amazon pledge million-dollar donations to social justice groups, but in the case of facebook in particular, it has been fascinating to watch what has happened here over the past few weeks. many civil rights groups are asking on facebook to crack down on the hate and racism that plovers rates -- proliferates on
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the platform. a boycott was announced by the naacp and the antidefamation league called stop paid for profit. what they are asking marketers to do is hold off ad spending on facebook for the month of july just to get the message across to facebook that this is serious. thursday night, we saw verizon say that they would boycott facebook during july. we also saw companies like rei, patagonia, ben & jerry's come out and say they were going to halt ad spending on facebook. in the past, these protests and boycotts of facebook do not make much of a dent on the platform but facebook seems to be getting the message because they have reportedly sent out a memo to their partners saying that we are taking this really asleep. we are hearing what you are saying. we are open to discussing some of the issues you are bringing up. so the pressure is on. is on the pressure certainly. it is also the pressure that is on in asia. we are seeing the racial region,s spread to that
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where racist marketing is particularly problematic. what are brands saying? jennifer: brands over the past few days have become more and more racially aware in asia, so a few days ago, we saw unilever say that their indian subsidiary, which markets their brand fair and lovely, plans to change the name and also remove references to fairness, lightness, and whiteness from their products. color is him is a major issue in this region, so we also saw johnson & johnson say they were going to take similar steps. a lot of skeptics are saying just changing the name is not going to change the intent of these products, and so, there is still a lot that needs to be done. it is a good first step but we have a lot more to go. nejra: absolutely. color is obviously entrenched in asia as in many parts of the world. thank you so much for joining us, jennifer zabasajja, our bloombergquint take reporter in
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