countries, the fed is not going to be going negative with rates. point,ne at this analysts, companies, strategists , portfolio managers has a great sense of what earnings will be in 2020 or 2021. >> that initial shock effect reopening, then i think you settle at levels where you don't know where things are going. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we are live on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene, on this friday morning, it feels like in this market, any other friday. in this economy, it is anything but. tom: not only in the economy, but within our society and culture as well. you're absolutely right. it really feels like an august

friday here. we had the range bound markets all week, maybe with the exception of gold. all of that pushed aside by the ramifications of the pandemic. we don't need to go into it now, but i really wonder over the andend, as the economists equity strategists write how they adapt and adjust their q3 view out of the news we are seeing from the sunbelt. jonathan: it is going to be a tug-of-war for the next few weeks and months. beneath the surface, the fragility is really going to start to show in places like texas and florida. lisa: this is the tension. the traditional data we rely upon, getting some of it today at 8:30 a.m. with u.s. personal income and spending, this data is outdated well before we even get it. there is a question of what do you look at. do you look at restaurant rivers rations -- restaurant reservations?

do you look at mobility trends? these are things i am watching in the day ahead. the universityt of michigan consumer sentiment survey. at 2:00 p.m., u.s. airline executives plan to meet with vice president mike pence. this is something you have been talking about, companies taking the lead when it comes to shuttering their businesses or installing different health measures well before any official shutdowns by local government. this, to me, is something really important to watch. jonathan: i know you have been really focused on it as well. corporations aren't waiting for the guidance to come from the government. we saw that with apple beginning to close down stores again. i believe 16 out of the 18 stores in florida for apple are now closed again. for this market, we shrug it all off. a little more weight this

morning. equities up 0.2 percent on the s&p 500, up six points. we begin the program this morning with anna han of wells fargo, the equity strategist over there. i know that over the short term, you are cautious. longer-term, you are firmly in the risk on camp. can you tell me why? anna: even with the reopening slowing down in key areas such as texas, you see nationwide, that is continuing. and the consumer spending is coming back. demand has been pent up. thatat persists, we think the equity rise couldn't continue -- the equity rise could continue. jonathan: what do you take from the reopening process hitting pause in places like texas? anna: it is certainly concerning, especially with texas being one of the largest contributors to the national gbp, but where it -- national gdp, but where it really needs to impact is other states

closing down officially, putting redditors -- the quarantine measures. if that happens, it will really affect the economic recovery that is been going on since april. tom: i want to go back to your derivatives work, and doubles back to your physics and dynamics at yale university. what is the best of the market right now? what is the exposure of the market now into the summer? you are say exposure, thinking risk exposure, i am guessing? there are people who are positioned for the upside, but it is not this euphoric reach for all grab. you still have a lot of people putting on protection and be incautious because, to be frank, march was only three months ago, and it really hurt. on the other hand, you have those that have been piling into the market.

you look at the retail flow, and you see that people are eager in this rally -- eager to participate in this rally. our view is still the risk on an longer-term equities will be higher. tom: what is really interesting here, and i am glad you bring it ,p, it goes back to a re-hedge where you have to set up your belief structure three months or six months out. do you anticipate more volatility in equities as institutions and hedge funds have to struggle to re-hedge their bets? anna: we do think the couple of months of head will be volatile -- couple of months ahead will be volatile. when you look at s&p options, it is looking like we are going to have some choppiness, and an elevated vix could persist for some time. that being said, what is giving us confidence is that you see credit spreads remaining rather tight, and even as credit spreads remain tight, that keeps . cap on those equity vol

--lisa: yesterday we got results from the federal reserve tests of u.s. banks. it was somewhat surprising, and came with a possible review further of the capital plans of the big slave this year. the fed -- capital plans of the banks this year. there does seem to be a feeling that there could be additional measures taken in the near future. anna: you bring up a great point. dividends and tied to those to the income string, but being able to pay out most of the third quarter is something we expected. we weren't expecting a huge raise in dividends. i wouldshing buybacks,

say that the consensus view would be no buybacks for the rest of this year. that was rather expected. what was unprecedented is that they are going to ask for another review, a resubmitting of the capital plan in september, but frankly, it is kind of like getting a test rated and getting it back with all these red marked. if you get a chance to review and recent it, it can actually help and be something to look forward to in september as another catalyst. lisa: just broadening out a little bit, i want to look at the risks heading into november. there was a time when, in an election year, the election would be on the forefront of a lot of peoples minds. right now it seems to be on the back banner. at what point do we start to see election risk bleed into the market action? anna: i think it is already starting to bleed into the market. it certainly has been on the back in her, like you said, because of the coronavirus -- on the back burner, like you said, because of the coronavirus.

but more and more, you are seeing this tied together as president trump is handling the coronavirus situation, and as candidate biden has become more and more let's to win the presidential seat. that brings the question, what if the dems make a full suite? -- a full sweep? that would mean changes to the economic land, like faster than expected. we will be watching that carefully as that develops. jonathan: this has been one of the stories that has come on the radar in a massive way in the last week, the election. more and more people discussing the potential outcome come november. i think the market gets like a distracted toddler that can only focus on thing, and one thing the market is focused on this november is the tax cut, and whether the tax cut it's reversed if the republicans lose the senate. that is may be focus of

the participants, and maybe that is typical of elections. they worry about the text, -- the tax ramifications from any of the permutations you can get. but what is so important here about the tax ramifications is all of the other distractions as well. overlays of the great for equity investors will be some form, if i am elected, free beer fiscal stimulus. ofmay even get two tranches fiscal stimulus before the election. how does that play into the powell put, the ability of the fed to prop up equities? anna: i see get helps the powell put, really. if you have seen how chairman powell has spoken in past fomc meetings, he is asking for more fiscal aid, saying we have done this much on the monetary side, but we need or. we think -- we need more.

we think it is better than a coin flip to say we will get more stimulus, but in what form? it looks like it is probably going to take more of a state and local aid, but we don't know yet. we will have to see when congress reconvenes in july. that is going to help the economic recovery for sure. -- jonathan: anna, thank you. in this market right now, there is a massive challenge to the market narrative at the moment. what has been important over the last several weeks is the sequential growth. what we have seen this week is real evidence we will be bel ow capacity for a whole lot longer. if we had elevated unemployment and income still hit, we will need that policy in the next 60 days. for me, that has probably got to be the number one issue. will we get the support in washington required to offset the hit to this economy, that

will continue because of the data we are seeing in texas,, and elsewhere -- texas, california, and elsewhere? there's also the assumption even amidst all of the uncertainty, and it feels like such a muddle. theve got the virus counts, stimulus coming in, the election. people still banking on stimulus remitting supreme. it is unclear whether it will. alongside lisa abramowicz and tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, counting you down to the opening bell this morning. -- up 0.5% up 0.2.5 -- up 0.25%. coming up, the return to work with kbw chief thomas michaud. from new york city this morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance

." with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. registered its biggest ever jump in cases, leading to some governors reversing plans to reopen their states. arizona,california, and texas account for almost half of all new cases. texas has suspended elective surgeries in big cities. businesses that have opened can still operate, but at reduced occupancy limits. the trump administration has asked the supreme court to rule that obamacare is invalid. it urges that the entire affordable care act must fall, including protections for pre-existing conditions. the supreme court set to hear the case around the time of the november election. told theal reserve has

banks they cannot increase dividends or do buybacks through at least the third quarter. banks performed well in annual stress tests, but a separate review of the effects of the coronavirus pandemic uncovered potential risks. germany is preparing to strike against possible u.s. sanctions if president trump follows through on his threat to kill off the nord stream 2 pipeline. that allows russian gas to be pumped directly to germany. -- credit suisse -- legal considerations and investment costs outweigh the expected returns. it would have been credit suisse's return to wealth management after a form year absence -- after a four year absence. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta.

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>> over time, stocks tend to go up regardless of who the president is, regardless of who controls congress. i think you have to game out these election issues as something that would hit markets

this year, not necessarily that would influence us longer-term. rbc,han: lori calvasina of covering the election, potential outcomes and what it could mean or not mean for this market come november and beyond. from new york city this morning, alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. two hours and around 12 minutes away. equity futures up around four or five points on the s&p 500, around 0.1%. outside of that, outside of equities, into the bond market we go. treasury yields lower, the curve just a little bit flatter again. 0.67%, your at thirty-year down to about 1.40%. let's get to the fx market. quick snapshot of g10 for you. the japanese yen against the u.s. dollar. euro-dollar pretty much unchanged. some muted price action this

morning, but certainly for the economy, a lot of concern going through the rest of the summer without the support of another fiscal package already formed and agreed on. -- 80 to check with a huge amount of turning out there. that is not the case in washington, and that is not the case in this nation. kevin cirilli is our chief washington correspondent. we could have a two hour conversation with him this morning on the virus, on the politics of washington, the police legislation on the hill, and none of it matters because the president of the united states has been essentially invisible for the last couple of days. kevin, i believe, and correct me if i'm wrong, there will be a virus event today. i believe there will be a scheduled virus event on sunday, and the president, with all of the media garbage of 12 and 14

weeks ago, and the sniping at the doctors, won't be at either event. is that correct? kevin: this is the first task force briefing in more than two months, and vice president mike pence will be leading the effort. he chairs that committee. i am told by the reelection campaign that from their perspective, they are viewing the uptick in cases in states like arizona, as well as florida, and other states, is really a first wave, not necessarily a second wave. that the virus has trickled down through. tom: come on, kevin. you are talking like the chief washington correspondent. i get that. is the president in hiding? look, he will not be attending the briefings, and i think democrats are going to raise concerns about that. the president has struggled in

terms of swing state polls. poll has himimes" down significantly in six battleground states. the republicans would not describe it as him hiding at all. jonathan: there is one part of all of the polls where this president still performs, and it is arguably the most important part going into november as we try and secure an economic recovery. it is on the economy. head to head with the former vice president, joe biden, the president still comes out on top on handling the economy. --n in a moment when we are a moment like we are in right now, how does the administration leverage that? kevin: they've got to get through the virus. that is the one sign of hope for republicans heading into 2020. i would also note that for every criticism of the president hiding, they have lodged the same complaints at

the biden campaign. that is something republicans are going to try to push biden out more publicly, especially towards the end of the summer and into the fall. recoveryg of the really could have implications. should the economy begin to come back in the third quarter and slow down in the fourth quarter, that is right around november 3. there's a lot of unknown economic indicators coming that could really decide this thing leading to the end of october and november 3. finally, from a policy standpoint and perspective, beyond the politics, the pace of those economic indicators in terms of the recovery will really be guiding many of those republicans who are on the fence about another round of economic stimulus. that is going to be guiding them. as the uptick in cases continues

to mount in public and states, that is putting pressure -- in republican states, that is putting pressure on republicans on the fence about stimulus to come around before the august recess. lisa: i know tom likes to talk about the summer of discontent. i am going to relabel it the summer of the muddle. you talk about the potential for more stimulus or fiscal support. you talk about the election. then of course, there is trade, and there is that bill in the itste censuring china over encroachment into hong kong's independence. what are the ramifications from that is trade tensions start to rebuild? kevin: in terms of hong kong, this is one of the rare areas of bipartisanship that has emerged in congress between republicans in democrats, particularly potentially trying to distance the united states from chinese who do business

through the communist party in order to support the national security laws against hong kong. this is an area, yesterday i spoke with senior officials of the state department, and they really doubled down on the notion that this is an area of bipartisanship. in terms of where this goes from a trade perspective, i think that you've got the upcoming election, where china is a point ofeeling leverage in terms of agriculture, but you also have europe viewing a per -- a particular point of leverage. it is a point of contrast between the democratic party, saying they would try to have a return to coalition building, trump republicans' ideology, which is a more isolationist approach that will allow the u.s. to be more brash, quite frankly, against xi jinping. jonathan: kevin cirilli in

washington, great to catch up with you. lisa, i wasn't even aware summer got started. for many people, it does not feel that way at all. in new york city, we have only just been able to go outside properly in the last couple of months. i am not sure the summer ever gets started for many people across this country. lisa: are you talking about the summer 2022? is this what year? this has felt like an attorney, no -- an attorney to, now? jonathan: for most people. we advance around 0.1 percent. coming up on this program, we talk about the stress test for the banks, the federal reserve's latest move, and the move to reopen and hatton. we will talk with the ceo of cape -- reopen manhattan. we will talk with the ceo of kbw. alongside tom keene, together

with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ you doing okay?

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jonathan: muted equity market gains this morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. thend two hours away from opening bell, with equity futures just slightly higher, but fading once again. we are positive by around a single point on the s&p. outside of equities into the bond market we go. the curve a little flatter, down around two basis points on 30's. a similar move on 30's to that 0.67%.n tens to euro-dollar going absolutely nowhere. the japanese yen just a little bit stronger. tom: we will see how the news flow goes today. if you are a part of global wall street, particularly american wall street, this is our

conversation of the day. pushingichaud did has 35 years of experience with bretton woods of speaking to small and midsized banks, and is of big banks as well. we are thrilled he joins us today, of course with kbw. people thate got worry about the decisions away from the research and banking services of kbw, but what is your basic take on how we are going to get wall street back to work? thomas: i think there are a couple of important decisions that need to be made and steps that need to be taken to ensure the safety of our colleagues in returning to the office. that is always of paramount importance. when you say what does that mean

, for example, we have redesigned a lot of the patterns around our buildings. we worked closely with landlords in our buildings around the country just to make sure that safety, number one, is what is in mind for our colleagues. we have also taken a very local approach, so what we do in new york and other places will be different. istly, i think the big thing we are going slow. i think you can see now with some reemergence of cases around the country, that opening up will be a wide thing. , mass city in the country transit always comes up in all of our conversations with colleagues about how we are going to go about reentering. my opinion is the locations that have less mass transit are likely to come back sooner. having offices all around the country, but mass transit is a big issue that comes up around our colleagues.

tom: with all of this trauma nationally, does it speed up or slow down bank consolidation? thomas: it is going to speeded up. i believe the major forces that were driving consolidation before covid have only been accelerated because of covid. what where they? bigger banks were more profitable. bigger banks were picking up market share. buys in scale seem to be showing up more for the banking industry. i think the big one is the digital uptake in the banking industry was accelerating and noticeable before the virus showed up, and what we have been seeing in the early data, it is going to be fascinating to study what happens in this period. what we are seeing is already fast rates probably accelerated, so the forces that are at work -- and there is one other when i should tell you, which is low interest rates are not the friend of the banking industry. likely, the policy response post

crisis is going to be lower for longer rates. i think that will as well encourage consolidation. our view is that there is a temporary pause. recessions are never periods where you see acceleration of bank, day, but on the back of this you could see a robust , butonment -- of bank m&a on the back of this you could see a robust environment. jonathan: if these banks have managed to push people online because the branches weren't open, what happens to branches over the next couple of years? thomas: the trend coming into this was the number of ranches in america were shrinking. i think an important trend was that the nation's biggest yanks were opening packages of 20 or 30 branches, and let's say the 30 largest cities in the country , and then they tended to shrink the number of branches elsewhere. i think those trends are going to continue, and i also am

hearing when i talk to some of these bank management teams that their service centers are reporting that folks who have never used digital applications in the past are signing up for the first time, even though they have been long-term customers. what i think that means is you are probably going to have less of a need for branches, and much of the digital activity will stick post crisis. jonathan: it is hard to think in a world like this, with unemployment in the double digits, if you are talking about consolidation, i am taking about fewer jobs. if you are talking about fewer branches, i am thinking about fewer jobs. our job cuts inevitable -- our job cuts inevitable? thomas: employees in the banking industries were also ready -- in banking industry was already shrinking, but i think you will see implement redesigned. you will see a shifting of what these folks are doing. but i think that will be the

driver. of course, whatever is happening in the economy will push what banks need to staff their operations. but i don't know if i am looking for massive cuts. there are reductions after mergers, but so far, the banking industry in my opinion has been surviving this and doing ok. that seems to be --lisa: that seems to be the turn from the federal reserve, and yet, they said they could potentially amend the recommendation to halt dividends where they are to cap them, and possibly take further action. what are you seeing in terms of delinquencies, and more importantly, sentiment among some of the businesses you lend to in terms of how they are girding for the next wave of whatever is to come? thomas: a lot of the data is being impacted by the deferrals that have been allowed by the

industry, as well as the regulators. impact of thethe government stimulus. you are not really seeing a high degree of the impact quite yet. what will need to be determined is what it looks like when we get into the second half of the year, when deferrals begin to wear off, and we discover where the economy is in the second half of this year. i think a lot of that is still yet to be determined. but importantly, this is the first recession we are going through with new accounting procedures. typically, that is not the central part of the story, but this time it is because we have a new accounting requirement, which then says banks are required to take all of their provisions for expected losses upfront for the losses even show up. that is why i said the bank industry is doing ok. you may say there wasn't a lot of profitability, but that is because the banks are frontloading all of the loan losses now.

-- i thinkt a lovely with all of the frontloading in the first quarter, it probably happens again in the second quarter, we probably see the same amount for the industry. the industry profitability is supposed to get better. that is what we see is likely to play out for the rest of this year. lisa: i think a lot of people agree that the banks are in pretty good shape. i want to go back to what you were talking about in terms of we won't really get a gauge on the stress among corporations until the stimulus, the latest rounds have worn off. do you have any indications from your conversations with ceos about how bad it could get if there is some sort of death if there isn't some sort of read -- could get if there isn't some sort every upping a fiscal re-ort -- some sort of upping of fiscal support? thomas: the current data that is

encouraging is you see an improvement in economic activity, and they also keep a close eye on cash on the balance sheet and cash in deposits. to be aw, there appears very good degree of cash in the system, and of course, there will be examples. k corporate wea credit coming into this, you are far weaker corporate credit today. i am just talking about in general. in general, what i hear from management teams is that they are seeing a lot of cash in corporate clients. hotels would be where i would look for a lot of issues. these are the things that are being watched, where there could be outsized losses, but broadly thating, the data shows

there's still a lot of cash on the balance sheet. tom: thank you so much for the briefing. articles onple of this liverpool victory, and i don't know how to equate it for our american not against. it is not like the cubs finally winning, or even that first red sox world series victory after a million years. but to you, what was the symbolism a liverpool finally winning in this situation 30 years on? jonathan: i think for everyone who is not a liverpool fan, they are just pretending it did not happen. it has been 30 years without a league title. now they are back on top in a massive way. looking ahead to next season, i have no idea when next season starts, they've got to be the favorites to do it all over again. for me, it is good we finally got over the final hurdle and got this league completed, but there is still so much work to be done.

we need to sort out relegation, who is going to go down to the league below, and who's got champions league places as well. and you probably need me to explain all of those things in the commercial break. tom: we will do that through the weekend with a beverage of our choice. did they buy the championship? did they just spend more money than anyone else? jonathan: they spent a lot of money, but they also brought a lot of money in from selling players that weren't working out, and made a considerable amount of money on them as well, with the likes of one going to barcelona several years ago. pit to an to subtly equity market conversation -- to to an equity market conversation. we will do that for lisa and 90% of the audience as well. [laughter] your 10 year yield -- tom: newcastle sucks. jonathan: i am not sure you want

to back that noise -- to make that noise and then shout you're getting it. alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. just make it stop. [laughter] this is bloomberg. [laughter] ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the race to reopen in the u.s. is now going in reverse. the u.s. has seen the biggest jump in coronavirus cases. almost half the new infections come from florida, california, arizona and texas. meanwhile, today the white house will hold its first coronavirus task force briefing in almost two months. hasapitol hill, the house passed a democratic overhaul of policing rules. republicans and democrats are far apart on a liability shield for police, and restrictions on

chokeholds. several european countries are offering to compromise with the u.s. over a proposed digital tax. france, the u.k., italy and spain say they could initially only tax automated difficult services -- automated digital services. only itsaded for second weekly decline since april. the surgeon coronavirus cases has clouded the outlook for demand, but the pessimism is tempered by signs that russia is determined to curb oil output. it is one of the single biggest bets on the aviation industry since it was shattered by the pandemic. buy capital has agreed to collapsed airline virgin australia. a significant amount of capital will be injected into the airline. the agreement wipes out virgin australia shareholders. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the situation would be far worse if we hadn't it in the way we had to provide support to businesses and individuals and protect jobs through this crisis. but looking forward, the most

important thing we can do now is safely reopen our economy, and that is why the plan that the prime minister set out is so important, and that we should carry on delivering that plan. jonathan: an exclusive interview with the chancellor of the exchequer, rishi sunak. francine lacqua catching up with him a few hours ago. really emphasizing to support this economy will see need -- will still need. from new york city this morning, good morning to you. alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures totally unchanged on the s&p 500, we were negative a couple of hours ago, around 4:00 a.m. eastern. recovering to positive territory, reroll over to about a single in the last couple of minutes. in the bond market, treasury yields come in two points to 0.67% on the 10 year. in foreign-exchange, really needed price action. it feels like really a -- it feels like any other friday for

this market, but we know it is friday. but another tom: it is the oddest thing, just the extraordinary angst in this nation about the pandemic. yesterday we spent a lot of time looking at a basketball star. most of you know the name lebron james. what if you were able to talk to the lebron james of the vaccine racket? we talked to the great peter hotels of baylor -- peter hotez of baylor. deborah fuller owns the high ground at the university of washington. lookt images of her labs like a war zone. it is a war to find a vaccine. deborah fuller joins us in her early morning from the university of washington. to fuller, how close are you the vaccine that we all desperately need? deborah: my laboratory is

currently in preclinical studies for a candidate vaccine. what that means is that we are still testing it in animal models. we have not yet moved into human clinical trials. tom: tell us about the transfer. folks, we need to say this because dr. fuller leads the washington national primate research center. what are the risks as you move from primates over to testing on jon ferro? [laughter] dr. fuller: the real risk in the initial testing in humans is really a phase i clinical trial, and that is done to test safety in humans. prior to reaching that point, we will have tasted -- we will have tested safety in animals. that includes things like toxicity, the ability of the vaccine to protect animals from an infection. we have a fair amount of

confidence by the time we transition to humans that we have done everything we can at that point in preclinical studies to ensure success, particularly in safety, if not also the efficacy of the vaccine. jonathan: i appreciate how seriously you entered that question. that is my colleague throwing a little bit of shade at me, comparing me to an animal. quite clearly, we have some fragility in places like texas. what do they need to do now? is pausing the reopening process enough to see this data improve in the coming weeks and months? dr. fuller: until we have a vaccine, which is really the most effective way to control a pandemic, the measures that a number of birds are taking such as wearing masks, social distancing and the like, are still going to very important, as well as scaling of the testing because if you can identify where the virus is and

who has been infected, that can help communities control their infection much better. so we are really still in that domain of meeting or testing and needing to maintain our social distancing in wearing masks. virus is transmitted. that is what they do. as long as there is a warm body for them to infect, they will find a way to infect that. until we have immunity built in the population, we are still going to see continued upticks of virus transmission and increased spread of the virus, as long as there's people out there without that immunity. lisa: you put it really well, this idea that we are basically buying time ahead of some sort of collective herd immunity that can really only be had with catastrophic deaths or a vaccine , and a lot of the slow down in an economy with respect to

getting a vaccine as early as this year or possibly early next year. how concerned are you about the safety of it, let alone the efficacy? just the idea that it hasn't tested over a longer term perio d? dr. fuller: traditionally, vaccines go through three phases of human clinical trials. the first phase is just to make sure it is safe. that is usually in a smaller number. actually, all phases of a clinical trial for the second and third are constantly testing for safety. various boxes have to be checked before they can move on to the next one area in the second phase, it goes to a larger number of people, including the mina compromised and people who don't responders well to vaccines. in phase three, you are really testing efficacy. it could be tens of thousands of people, and then a placebo to a

number tens of thousands -- to another tens of thousands of people, and they see if the vaccine is reduced in the group that has the vaccine area usually that takes five to 10 years to accomplish and get through all of those steps. vax analogy going forward, we will always remember before covid-19 and after covid-19, as things completely changed and the fact that we are compressing thee timelines area accelerated timeline is really theyo changes in how actually proceed from one step to another area so you start phase one, they are getting their initial data that says it looks like it is going to be safe, and they are already starting days to come so they are starting to overlap those phases as opposed to doing them sequentially, and that helps compress that timeline. so it is not like they are going to skip the checkboxes of safety

measures that need to be evaluated or get they are just compressing the timeline so they can get that to the population much quicker. jonathan: really appreciate your time this morning. do come back and catch up with us sometime. dr. deborah fuller catching us up on the situation. we have known about the seriousness of this virus since january, and we are still debating the use of masks in several states across the united states. i have no idea how this became so politicized in the last couple of months. of thisis a culture nation, and i think any reading of back to the 19th century, certainly there is no surprise to it. what i would notice, and i think you and i talked about this 14 or 15 weeks ago, the demographics of florida are absolutely frightening. we heard that from dr. redfield of the cdc yesterday. jonathan: we will continue the

conversation here on "bloomberg surveillance." around 95 minutes away from the opening bell, with equity features slightly negative, off by around 0.1%. from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

♪ of other a number countries, the fed is not going negative with rates. >> no one knows at this point, analysts, companies, court fully managers -- portfolio managers, what earnings will be in 2020 or 2021. >> the initial shock effective reopening, then i think you settle in at levels where you don't really know where things are going. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. we are thrilled you are with us on this