>> the fed just doesn't know what the outlook is for this your next year. >> we are seeing this incredible tug-of-war between positive technicals and a much more uncertain outlook for fundamentals. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. monday, pouring freezing cold water on a v-shaped recovery hope. friday,lly started on and that is exactly where my reading was this weekend is the direction of the v-shaped i think was 30 days down, 30 days up. weekend werer the

absolutely fascinating about the complete over that mystery starts with the job report on thursday. did you know it is a holiday shortened work, having -- shortened work week, having to do with the freedom of the colonies? jonathan: you will have to explain that one to me. it must have been a class i may have missed. we are looking at the direction of the coverage, arguably still positive. the pace of the recovery is what is being questioned at the moment. lisa: tom was right to bring up the jobs report. report a daybs early for the mother to -- for the month of june ritika: interesting -- for them of the june. interesting to see if people think the fed is reaching. we have jay powell testifying tomorrow before the house financial services committee. on wednesday, it will be the feds june meeting minutes come

out. joblessday, there's claims. this is lagging at at this point, but it might give some insight into just how many jobs are coming back at a time of pain. jonathan: and no one knows. the range of estimates is remarkable. i don't know if you have seen this. the range of estimates, positive 9 million, -500,000. tom: i think people are flying blind. what is interesting not only about the headline numbers and all of that, but it goes to the micro data as well. it is a huge mystery here. lots of guesstimates. what i would focus on is observe the market data, and as you do your data checks, without question for me, it is the grind lower in yields we have seen. jonathan: and this grind higher in the equity market to go with it or get equity futures up six

points on the s&p 500. would bounceback 0.2% on this holiday shortened trading week. we begin this morning's program with tony dwyer of canaccord genuity. always fantastic to catch up with you, sir. want tolidate, and you add risk as we consolidate. why is that? tony:ltimate -- ultimately, there's two phases we know. don't fight the fed and don't fight the tape. we have a fed that has looked into a television camera and say we are just printing the money. don't worry about that area now is not the time to worry about that. we are going to issue unlimited support for the credit markets. the phrase that i think is hurt so many portfolio managers overtime is it is not it is different this time. that's the phrase we love to talk about. i think the real phrase that really hurts performance is this

will end badly because of course it is going to end badly. you cannot fix exponential doubt with infinity debt. however, the fed is very driven to retain their only two mandate , full employment, which clearly, even with a gain, we are not going to get over the near-term, and stable core inflation, which they want to be at 2%. last week at 1%, they are a long way off, so this fed is going to be sending money in, and i don't want to fight that. this is really important because you've been very clear that you are modeling a caution and a bear market off of a recession. asteriskutting a big next to it, right? tony: we downgraded the market on january 20 because we wanted to take some risk off the table. it has just gotten way too excessive. i didn't expect 34%, but i was

glad we took some risk down. we added risk when we came out -- actually, when fed chair powell said into the camera on "60 minutes" that we are just printing the money, i never thought that she would not have been doing a long time -- i never thought that the fed would use terms like qe or buying. they literally said we are printing the money. at that one, you know they are going to try to increase economic activity and not stop until they do. fight the fed is certainly one theme we have had this year. the other theme is don't fight the big tech rally, but that is getting threatened by the facebook advertising more caught -- advertising boycott that is raising questions about the advertising budgets of tech companies. how much can that influence the rally going word? tony: once we upgrade the

market, you got to see incredible runoffs of that trading range. on june, we thought the market would go into consolidation. each is seeing extraordinary moves. even economically sensitive stocks, you had that two-week rally and it was time to take a little bit of that. that is an extraordinary thing that has never happened, so it is time to take a little bit of money off the table, so actually, the market has been consolidating since early june. you look at the percentage of stocks above the ten-day, and has dropped s&p components above their 10 day moving average back to only 10%. if you look at the percentage the s&pbove 50 day and 500, just to and a half weeks ago that reading was over 90% it is now 48 is in. already internally consolidating the market. now it is catching up to the indices because some of the big mega cap, stay-at-home stocks

are starting to get hit. are we redefining what a defensive asset actually is? is that a defensive asset right now? tony: i tell you, all of us have been doing this a while. the nasdaq mega cap stocks are considered the defensive stocks, which -- that is unique to this cycle. when you put those stocks -- if you are making an offensive that, you've bought to be -- an offensive bet, you've got to believe that there is going to be a reopening of economic activity. our target is a 2021 story. it is not in the next 15 minutes, we are off to the races. you've got to carry some liquidity on the down tide to add exposure. tom: where are you putting new money? where are you putting it to work? tony: if you are going to put

money into the market, it's got to be on the second reopening or an offensive sector allocation, which would be in the beleaguered banks which got absolutely smoked on friday in the fed decision. what was interesting about friday, even though the market was pretty weak, the industrial and materials significantly outperformed the s&p 500. so we are looking to go into there's areas that benefit from an economic reopening and not a stay-at-home forever, but this is something we are looking at over the next 12 to 18 months, not the next 12 to 18 minutes. lisa: i am struck by tony's comments in the comments from a lot of investment managers that we could have a lot more defensive stocks even though the economy faces a lot of uncertain he. i am struck by the dissonance between stocks not necessarily representing the overlying -- the underlying economy come over the bottom fifth of earners in america are below the employment

level seen in february. i wonder how this will filter into equities, if ever. jonathan: the equity market is not the economy. with five big names making up about 1/4 of the s&p 500, it is just something we got to accept, isn't it? people have been struggling with the idea that this needs to be a reflection of where the economy is going. tony: which equity market, th ough? what i chased some of those mega cap stock? i wouldn't. fridaymple, facebook on gave back all the gains it had in the prior month and change. so what you have is elevated risk when you have parabolic moves higher. orant to invest in america economic activity and a reopening of the economy. i don't want to be chasing the

stay-at-home work theme forever. clearly that has been working, and that has been such a driver of the market thus far. but if you look at the performance of the russell 1000 growth versus the russell 1000 value, you are seeing not just an absolute test of what ra, butd in the dotcom e even on a 10 week rate of change, you saw a peak that is now pulling back a bit. i think move is value overgrowth, and it is not -- value over growth, and it has not been the great theme, but coming out of the recession, typically your outperformer's are financials, industrials, materials, and consumer discretionary. those are the areas, if you believe the economy is ultimately going to recover, those are the sectors that you want to buy into the wood that we have -- into the weakness we have been expecting.

the two main problems that everybody had for the market was what about the second wave, and what about if the democrats do some kind of sweep. the polling is pulling forward the political side, and expansion of the covid-19 cases in the south is clearly telling us what the second wave could .ook like instead of happening in the fall, it is happening now. i think that creates the opportunity for investing in those reopening areas over the next few months. dwyer of tony canaccord genuity, appreciate the transparency. that is the morgan stanley camp. it is the recession playbook, the reopening rotation. focus on the aggregate data or continue to improve. ubs looking at the other side of the trade, the extended period below potential. that is what is playing out at the moment. tom: it is a huge target war. it is a recalibration here at

midyear. i can honestly say i have never seen the struggle to recalibrate . i've never seen this before with all of this uncertainty. jonathan: counting you down to payrolls thursday. alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. up sixuity futures points, the s&p 500 advancing 0.2%. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. deaths from the coronavirus pandemic have now topped 500,000 worldwide, and the total number of cases surged past 10 million. according to the world health organization, the u.s. and brazil account for almost half of the new cases. florida,ch as texas, and arizona have been forced to reverse plans to reopen their economies. there's been an attack on pakistan's stock exchange in karachi. authorities killed all four

gunmen before they could enter the exchange building with grenades and automatic rifles. president trump is rejecting a report that russia paid bounties for american and allied troops to be killed in afghanistan. the president says u.s. intelligence agencies didn't believe the information was credible, so they didn't brief him on it earlier. the white house denied reports the president had been briefed, but had been nothing to respond to russian bounties. in hong kong, more protests against that national security law china is expected to impose. one official said the law will -- need to be used unless will not need to be used if people can avoid crossing redline. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm really.

-- i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are seeing two things that i think are very clear. we don't have synchronization nationally or internationally, and we are seeing massive

dispersion. one man who will not provide you with any v-shaped recovery happy talk, mohamed el-erian. alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv end bloomberg radio. equity futures bouncing back a little bit from last week's 0.2%., up by is up by almost a basis point at 0.65%. just to round things out, and foreign-exchange, seeing some real dollar weakness against the bulk of g10. euro-dollar advancing by about 0.5% this monday morning. is: i want to make clear, it a two-year space where you've got a lower yield. worries about the quality of our v-shaped recovery.

there's clearly a lack of synchronization on this pandemic, and it can be between the governors and the mayors, different already's. but too often it is republicans and their president. kevin cirilli is our chief washington correspondent. how out of sync is president trump with his republicans? kevin: on friday a spoke with a republican lawmaker who privately articulated to me the frustration in tone that he's had with the president guarding this past summer, whether it is on race relations in this coming -- relations in this country or response to the uptick in cases. really, republicans i talk arguing this as a missed opportunity -- i talked with our viewing this as a missed opportunity. when it comes to who they trust

for the economy, republicans are still faring significantly well. tom: fine. what do they do about the pandemic today? does the white house make a splash today on the pandemic? it is above the fold. that's the story. what do they do? do they recapitulate on the virus? kevin: i think you are starting to see that to some extent, but really they are leaving it up to the state, whether it is texas, florida, and making it a localized in the state issue. look no further than arizona. thatither way, i think ctive,he democrats' perspe this is really there opportunity to present some type of alternative in leadership, and that is why you are seeing former vice president joe biden really lie low to let this unfold, as it will come for republicans.

i am shocked that tom didn't ask whether we will see president trump and vice president pence start to wear masks. we are seeing a loss in enthusiasm in older white numbers -- older white members of the public. how frustrated is president trump that part of his base is disappearing? kevin: i don't think you will start to see the president wear a mask. [laughter] but you are absolutely correct in that for senior citizens, this is a crucial, key constituencies of the president and for republicans. look had to how senior citizens voted in florida, it was part of the reason trump won against contin. that really does ash against clinton. that really does -- against clinton. that really does have republicans worried.

jonathan: the issue right now, this is a referendum on president trump's first-term. the president does not want this to be a referendum on him. he wants this to be a head-to-head race. how did they change how this election is viewed in the next weeks and several months? perspective,heir law & order, obamacare, and the economy. it allows for them to say that they are on the side of reopening, but secondly, that there would be a boom in 2021, and thirdly, this issue of international trade and he would be at able to negotiate a better plan. are not dozen companies running a national campaign. they are running a campaign to battleground states. that micro messaging i think

sometimes gets lost in the dizzying cable news of the day, the debates and conversations the rubbed the country -- debates and conversations had throughout the country. tom: as kevin mentions, it is the number one thing this morning, the lack of synchronize asian between the governors and the mayors, and the president and the governors. it is just shocking, the disjointed of america -- the disjointedness of america. jonathan: i couldn't agree more, including that the strategy of the former vice president is to let the president hijacked the new cycle for all the wrong reasons. it was a key strength of president trump to hold the new cycle hostage to whatever he was doing. has that become a weakness now? kevin: right now, yes. biden nowould

longer has the opportunity to not coup on camera, it could be a strength. i think it speaks to the lack of synchronization. the political strategist advising president are saying it doesn't whether or not delaware county is talking. what matters is how macomb county thinks about this, and that is why the micro messaging, i am not taking a position on whether it is guaido wrong, but that is where -- it is right or wrong, but that is where their messages really being targeted. jonathan: always great to catch up with you. pick up on the tension of the moment. you know how politics work. a-day is a week, a week is a month, a month is a year. we have a long way to go into november. i wonder how sustainable things are, with the former vice president trying to stay out of the spotlight so the spotlight remains on the president for all the wrong reason. tom: it is that time of year,

and the ballet is to the conventions in late july and particularly to august, but they don't have that ballet this year. there's no question we are walking in jacksonville or wherever the convention is. it is not normal this time around. jonathan: nothing normal about this moment. alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. looking at your price action, shaping up as follows this monday morning, with equity futures pushing higher by eight points on the s&p 500, up around 0.3% after last week's losses. we just take a little bit of a bite out of than this monday morning. elsewhere in the bond market, tom is later focused at the front end of the yield at 0.16%. the federal reserve sitting at the front end of the curve on your 10 year, up a single basis point to 0.65%. ui here chanting -- ui here chanting -- do i here chanting? did tom keene arrange that? dollar weakness in g10.

four-daya long week ahead. ahead on bloomberg radio and bloomberg tv -- tom, you're in trouble in the commercial break -- this is "bloomberg surveillance." [chanting] ♪ you doing okay?

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♪ jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we are live on bloomberg radio and tv. alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your openingy from bell this monday morning, on a holiday shortened trading week stateside. in your equity market, up 10 points on the s&p. we advance 0.3%, taking the smallest bite out of last week's losses. treasuries unchanged. yields up i around one basis point on the 10 year. your two-year yield, to 16 basis points. in foreign exchange all about euro strength dominating g10. as we count you down, the payrolls thursday with a massive range of estimates on that -- as we count you down to payrolls thursday, with a massive range of estimates on deck.

tom: still the various pmi's and all the other stuff we look at. what i find extraordinary, and you highlighted at the top of the show, the basic idea of the uncertainty out there. we've got a great test -- a great guest to speak to, david haveof axios, but i got to jonathan ferro bringing him in. -- twosts from coventry guys from coventry. jonathan: two guys that studied at the university of warwick. only one of us drew up -- only one of us grew up around coventry, and it was not david page. let's talk about this, the improvement in the aggregate data that most people expect. just a mechanical improvement because of new york reopening and the disparity beneath come of the weakness we could see in states like texas. how do you put those together?

david: we are literally trying to put that together. still two thirds of the u.s. looks like it is mechanically opening up, and that looks like it dries quite a strong rebound because we saw quite a strong drop in the second quarter. we've got 85% of states gdp waited. we are seeing anywhere from 20% pausinggdp weight now the lifting of restrictions that would have led that rebound. but what worries us is that really, the self protection, not the sole preserver is government here. what we will see is more protection come through, more precautionary behavior on an individual basis. we are just not sure how much we are going to get people self-isolating themselves, not going out to restaurants, not consuming.

that is really the worry we have for the scale of the rebound going into q3. tom: the petition here into this jobs report thursday, carl weinberg is brilliant on this in a research note this weekend, is this mystery of furlough versus layoff. we've never had a furlough discussion. parse not just in the globally, layoff versus furlough? david: what we've done is try and run models of what we would expect unemployment to do, given the scale of gdp drop we were expecting. may, we saw some of the uncertainty there with the bureau of labor statistics of the u.s.hat much don't know how to categorize themselves. so we were written the -- so we

were relatively optimistic. we weren't too sure where we could get. we think a 16% figure is probably near the market. but it is hopeful you could see the on and lemon trade fall back to around 8%, 9% in the fourth. that is quite a big drop. -- the unemployment fall back to around 8%, 9% in the fourth or. that is quite a big drop. we were below 4% at the start of this year. 9%, if we get back to 8% or which sounds like quite a milestone, we would still be over double where we were at the start of the year. it has strong implications for how strong growth can be into 2021 and 2022. lisa: how much more can the fed do to lower the unemployment rate? david: not much. the fed is pretty much at full at this point, but the

actual stimulus i think the fed is able to provide here is pretty limited. we know that rates are not going to go anywhere for a long time. although it's got a minimum commitment at the know what -- commitment at the moment, it is set in place lending schemes that are going to be dependent on underlying manned, and they've removed those headwinds. so i think the fed is pretty much fulfilling everything it additional it is not -- it is not clear what additional boost they could do. i think where we see monetary stimulus coming from is the -- is the fiscal policy. we are expecting another package, but the scale of that and what it tries to deliver, obviously the last package was income support. we would be hoping to see some tilt towards longer-term demand,

but it looks like you're going to need income support sometimes well. jonathan: the scale and composition of the fiscal piece is going to be absolutely critical in the next 30 days. david, i wonder how difficult it is to have any forecast on this economy when we can't establish how tight the really -- the relationship is between theployment and conversation over the last couple of months. david: i think the government package has been absolutely hit, andn managing the i think credit where it is due there, to our estimates it looks like incomes are going to be broadly unchanged in the second quarter. given that we were expecting a 10% drop, unemployment rising anywhere between 13 and 16% us is quite an incredible

achievement, so that really minimized some of the impact of the income and how long it would way on its economic going forward. as we go into the third quarter, it is not clear how long to support will be there, and if the numbers are anywhere near q3, then the outlook for growth is affected going into 2021. a really starts to fall back. i think the next fiscal stimulus package and how it's eyes through unemployment and any other matter is going to be critical. tom: you are with a big insurance company, axa of france. have you advised on a shift in the actuarial assumption? can you take a pandemic and say it is a one-off, and not shift the rate of return that would be expected retirement assets? or do you finally have to shift

to a lower statistic ? thankfully, that is something outside of my own purview, but it is really difficult to gauge the scale of what is coming through. we are three months into this pendant. we know that the virus can shift quite fastly, and we are seeing structural shifts in the reported number of cases we are getting, which are clearly surging in the southern u.s. states, and the number of deaths. so it is very early stew sort and king about the long-term assumption is vacant through tos -- so it is very early as we gethe long-term through this. given the fact that we

potentially make it some sort of the school stimulus like an infrastructure spending plan, what is your inflation call going out two or three years? david: we still think this is by and large a disinflationary shock. our precise forecasts for inflation this year is for 0.5% cpi for the u.s.. probably sees the annual rate of little over 1.5% as we , so the fedxt year .s going to have work to do i think it is really going to have to work hard. by and large, it is still a large demand shock. it isn't say that there aren't of elements that could change that. what we are looking at is moment. with -- ceases wishon's

we still see situations with supplied, and we think that will wane over the period. theoretically, you could shift that around and be more quickly, but i think that is unlikely to be the case. we do expect fiscal stimulus. therefore, we still think this is in large a disinflationary shock -- by and large a disinflationary shock. david page, axa head of macroeconomics, my best to you and yours. bank of america picked up on this pretty early on. you've got to focus on what the stimulus is being used for. to keep people alive and functioning, that is just offsetting a huge demand

shock. how that evolves in the coming months is not only -- is known -- is not known by anybody, but i think it is critical. lisa: unemployment benefits extended past july could be an opportunity for something more it is veryy, because unclear what would happen in market congress did not read these unemployment benefits. jonathan: i've got to say, i think we can all foresee a situation where we don't that, equities turn lower. i can't imagine a situation where we don't get that fiscal support. can you imagine an administration staring down a november election not stepping into do more in the next 30 days? cirilli and i talked

to someone in washington. the only question is, given the virus news over the weekend, what will they do in early july the song and dance is that it is going to take 30 days. i don't think they got 30 days to play around. day,: -- jonathan: every that bill seeming to get better. we advanced 0.3%. from new york, this is bloomberg. the first word news, i'm rick a good -- i'm ritika gupta. texas is fast becoming the new center for the epidemic in the u.s. gov the weekend, texas' close,rdered bars to saying he wished he had done so sooner.

-- is putting a charge unwritten to severe for the typical five day course of street and -- course of treatment. a study found that the drug decrease becoming hospital by five days. beijing has said it plans to speed up purchases of american farm goods. in mississippi come of the legislature has voted to get rid of the confederate battle on the from the state flag. white supremacist lawmakers adopted the design more than a century ago. mississippi has a 38% black population. it was the last state flag to muallem ended 5 -- the emblem in its flag.

i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> -- we will continue to do to ensure that we support the economy. ♪ is a very different situation, but this is a very a serious situation, and the window is closing for us to take action. jonathan: secretary a czar --

secretary azar speaking to cnn over the weekend. from new york city this monday morning, good morning to you all. alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. live on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio with your equity markets set up as follows. positive seven on the s&p 500, up around 1.25% -- up around 0.25%. in the treasury market, yields not even a point on 10 year. focus clearly on one thing, the shift in the rhetoric over the urgentek, a whole more in places like texas, florida, and california. tom: joining us now is jonathan quick. abouts so important

dr. quick is not just his knowledge about the pandemic, but his commitment over multiple decades to looking at the epidemic turned to pandemic. what everyone wants to know is what is your solution for the political chaos that we are in right now? it is not much different than "the' plague." quick: i think we need to persist in getting the reality in front of us, into doing what works. we are sitting here in the u.s. seeing explosive increases with at least 30 states seeing increases, yet we look around the world and we see what works. i think we had the worst

pandemic communication in the , not only our leaders -- our leaders are not on a common message, and i think that is part of it. at the rockefeller foundation, we are working to build an alliance of public organizations to get a consistent message up to the public about the virus is here. if the leaders aren't coming together, i think society has to come together, but keep pushing the leaders with facing the reality. we this pandemic. we know it will be with us for a while and we know what to do to slow it down. -- tom: your work included six years at the world health organization you you are a good filter for all of the literature out there. if we see the case count explode in florida to arizona, do you just correlate that over to a

rising death count in the coming weeks? , with the well, yes recognition that the shift earlier in the outbreak, it was really a lot of at risk older people. we weren't protecting the most vulnerable. rise, seeing now cases at the present time are holding steady, so we will see more deaths area we will see proportionately fewer because more of the cases are younger who don't die as often, but yes, we will see rises in the death gets is the increase filtered up to the middle-aged and older. so yes, i expect we will see the discount coming back up -- the

death count come back up. lisa: you're seeing the case count rise in some areas, but the death count not rising significantly at this end. could this be interpreted as perhaps these flareups not being as dangerous as the initial ones , being the sign of a real opening of the economy and managing through the virus to get to some sort of herd immunity without a vaccine on the horizon for the next couple of months? dr. quick: honestly, i think that is wishful thinking in the a bigger outbreak, even if proportionately more of it is in the youth, it is still going to claim lives. the virus hasn't changed. is not one reality is it saving lives. it is saving the economy. that is a false choice. we can do both. but our biggest failure has been those really reinforce

measures which really work. this tensing, face masks -- distancing, face masks, handwashing. staying indoors for three months didn't change the virus. it has been just as contagious area but whether you start with because theymic are not following these personal protective behaviors, it will eventually continue and affect the whole compilation. so we do have to reopen. but we have to do it in a way which really applies the lessons , or privacyworked -- or at least the virus and all of the knock on effects. lisa: how long do you think it

will be until we have a vaccine? dr. quick: i have to say, i am encouraged by the vaccine work that is going on now. we've got vaccines and human trials. that is exciting. we have the astrazeneca/university a bok center -- university of oxford one, and the mother and i one -- and the mother now -- and the moderna one. so i am encouraged. in scaling up production, i think we will start seeing some, but i don't see large scale availability that changes things fundamentally until the latter folks have been

saying since the beginning. i think that hasn't changed. i think the companies are really looking at how to maximize production. jonathan: dr. quick, fantastic to catch up with you. i think we are all hopeful. hopeful that it comes a lot quicker than late 2021, which right now goes a long way away. tom: we have tried to bring you in the simulcast as many of these experts as we can, and what was so important last week was the interview with the lead gist out of the university of washington. it takes a number of vaccines to really get the efficacy up. it is just about the first vaccine. jonathan: much more still to come on "bloomberg surveillance, " with the s&p up 17 points, up

around 0.6%. coming up, the hopeful morgan stanley. we will catch up with jim caron, next, here on bloomberg. ♪ w?w?uhió'ñó

>> the fed just doesn't know what the outlook for the rest of this year for next year is. >> there are positions for the upside, but it is not this euphoric reach for all grab. >> we are seeing this incredible tug-of-war between positive technicals and a much more uncertain outlook for fundamentals. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. ♪ tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. we welcome all of you