>> no one at this point, analysts, companies, strategists have a great sense of what earnings will be in 2020 or 2021. >> you have a fed literal looking to a television camera and said we are just printing the money. >> that initial shock effect from reopening, which is going from no activity to some activity, then you settle in at levels where you don't really know where things are going. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. thrilled you are with us this final day of the first half of 2020.

without question, the most odd, the most historic first half in the history of american finance. there's no question about that, and it still continues. we will talk to you on economics, finance and investment. jon will have a usable jon ferro data check for you. i really want to go to the farnt at hand, which is how people are behind after the down that we saw, and then the whipsaw up, up. jonathan: first quarter since 2008 replaced by the best quarter since 1998. on the policy response, the next 30 days he is critical. at the start of march, end of february, we talked about building a policy bridge to the end of the year. i think what is clear going into july is that bridge needs a serious extension for a lot of

people still in a lot of pain. tom: there's not a moment to patrick borrow from o'brien. much more than two weeks ago, it is let go. lisa: the more uncertainty there makers,e part of policy with fed chair jay powell expected to talk about this massive uncertainty, the more uncertainty markets have come up policymakers will deliver, but they will come through with additional bridges to whatever is next in the cycle. that seems to be the biggest bet in markets right now. call it agoing to swirl of markets at the moment. really extraordinary. powell and mnuchin later today, you will see their comments as they reset for the second half of this historic year. someone who has always voted history into her analysis is liz

ann sonders at charles schwab. she has been a foundational voice unbelief in the stock market for decades. we are thrilled to give an update from liz ann sonders this morning. schwab ofu observe at what people are doing with their money? are they in this bull market? fund flowrom a perspective, persistent with broad aggregates, you have seen money coming out of equities in .he last several months that is where we are seeing some aggressive action. but it is not consistent with what some of the headlines have been around the newly minted smaller day traders, where in that cohort, you have seen some

really rampant speculation. broadly among our investors, that is not what we have been seeing. qubes of the nasdaq 100, can you predict a catalyst for event that will finally give us a tangible shift from qubes over to russell 2000? what is going to make that happen? liz ann: you seen the russell have bouts of relative outperformance over the last couple of months. they are trying to develop that outperformance. inhink we would have to see the financial system a real sense that we are back in recovery mode because the fundamental differential between small caps in the aggregate and large caps is still fairly wide. when you look at debt to equity ratios and the percentage of the russell that our so-called zombie companies, when you look at the percentage that are not

profitable and likely won't be for an extended time versus the larger cap indexes, there's really no comparison. but if we really start to see the recovery kick into gear, that tends to bring a bias down the cap spectrum. so one month of good data doesn't suggest a rebound. jonathan: this is a huge debate come of the ingredients needed for durable rotation into the more cyclical areas of this market area do you have any confidence that this bounce we witnessed and continue? liz ann: i don't think to the saw.t the percentage we mathematically, it just doesn't work that way. there's a lot of small numbers and you can press the data to such a significant degree, it is natural that the bounceback of returns is going to be massive. i think what we are more likely

to see is rolling w's. you get the shot up initially, then back down a little bit. the second-order economic effects are not just specific to second waves, if you can even consider the first wave over of the virus. we could see temporary layoff becoming permanent job losses, what we are seeing in the bankruptcy environment. i think there's going to be a pretty choppy recovery even absent the implications of the virus. that --lisa: that means tech remains the safe haven play here. i wonder how much regulatory pressures could threaten that. we know facebook is meeting today on this idea that that could actually accelerate some of the pressure coming from washington. how much are you watching this? liz ann: this risk about

regulatory pressure is not a new one. this is not really an election cycle risk. this has been ongoing for a couple of years now, so clearly it has not prevented many of those names from doing well. i think as you get close to the election, depending on how far the priority spectrum is on either candidate, i think it becomes an issue. but with most issues that become election platform issues, they don't tend to impact stocks until around labor day or post labor day. i would be more focused on the messaging around regulatory environment and the ability to do something depending on divisions in congress as a post labor day phenomenon. lisa: i think a lot of people would agree with you that the regulatory trade moves very slowly, if at all. how much are these boycotts just an excuse for big companies to cut their advertising budget in a highly uncertain environment that is going to factory google

-- that is going to affect the googles, facebooks of the world regardless of policy? liz ann: i think they are looking for some margin edge. i am not in the weeds with these companies, but it is not surprising to see an attempt at bringing in the cost side of the equation in this environment. tom: you were just out of delaware or maybe starting when there is a modest moment, the crash of 1987. rukeyser and sir john outleton and a few others to calm the nation down. right now on global wall street, we need to calm the nation. is jerome powell the one doing the calming of the nation and the financial markets? liz ann: they do without the

humorous quips we all remember lou for. 1987,ainly won't forget particularly the friday night before when my boss came on and actually predicted the crash that was to come three days later. little did i know how difficult that was to do. but i think powell is doing a very good job. he has also learned to stay on message a little bit more than maybe in the past. what i think the most important message he has been imparting is not that this is an uncertain time, but we've got the ammunition. i think the most important messaging is that some of these tools will go back in the .oolbox but also, he has repeatedly emphasized that there's is a

difference in the fed's mind and there should be in investors minds between system sims ability -- system stability and financial market capability. volatility in the financial markets in and of itself shouldn't trigger fade action unless it becomes a risk to the financial system more broadly. that to me is the most resonant message he has been putting out there , not just in this recent period,- this recent but over the past year. is dead on.z ann whatever you think of chair powell's policies, i know it is divisive right now. i will get the messages. but i think we can all agree that the chairman's communication has improved drastically from where it was when he first started. tom: absolutely. it happens with everyone.

i have to say, it's been most impressive to see how he's taken command of the press conferences. some of it is repetition. some of it is figuring out michael mckee's rude questions. but i think with secretary mnuchin, they have really risen to the occasion. jonathan: the trick with michael mckee is you leave him right at the end of the news conference, you answer quickly, and then you get out and say you've got to go. another thing that i thought was really important was just the mechanical improvement, the bounce we are seeing. it is mechanical. you shut down, you reopen. you can't extrapolate out that bounce. really, the recovery begins at the end of summer. what does that look like? i think that is what we are all trying to figure out. lisa: and we don't know because we don't know the path of the virus. everyone is basically throwing up their hands. if you ask anybody where the

markets going to go, you're going to get a different answer. jonathan: we see that in the payrolls estimates for payroll thursday. the gap between the wide and the -- between the high on the low, wide. the conversation tomorrow you really don't want to miss. we catch up on "bloomberg surveillance" with former u.s. security advisor john bolton, 8:30 eastern. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the stage has been set for another confrontation between the u.s. and china. chinese lawmakers have approved a land mark national security law for hong kong that will punish acts of secession, subversion, terrorism, and collusion with foreign versus -- with foreign forces. the u.s. has warned it would start rolling back the city's preferential trade status. the world health organization warns the worst of the

coronavirus pandemic is yet to come. the agency says come of lack of global solidarity and fighting the disease. most u.s. areas are taking steps to scale back reopening's. arizona is closing bars and new jersey is halting plans for indoor dining. british prime minister boris johnson is promising a new deal postbuild the coronavirus economy. he outlined a plan to spend billions on infrastructure and outlined his commitment to some of the most private regions. barclays sees a gathering storm in the british economy in the midst of the pandemic. jes staley spoke to bloomberg in an exclusive and there you. --annex those of interview in an exclusive interview. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm rick gupta. this is -- i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are clearly not out of the woods yet. i think we've recovered more than we would have thought a little bit ago, but there is that second storm coming in a

couple of months. jonathan: it is the second storm we are waiting for. that was barclays ceo jes staley. a fantastic conversation a little bit earlier on "bloomberg surveillance" with francine lacqua and tom keene. alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. from new york city this morning, good morning. equity futures down five on the s&p. we roll over just a little bit as we close out the quarter and head towards the best quarter since 1998, taking a serious bite out of the q1 losses. await bond market, as we secretary mnuchin and chair powell on capitol hill, yields were a little bit higher, coming in a little bit now. 0.3%.ollar down strength the

story through g10. tom: what we have really learned in the past six months is the importance of technology and what it means for our society. davidson,te is at da and he spent a career being more insightful than most on how all of this technology matters to us. he turns that into buy, hold and settle on different equityzen such. he is -- different equities and such. it is the perfect night to comment on some of these things. what is so interesting to me is that the trees are growing to the sky at amazon. do they just continue to grow? great introduction. always a pleasure being on your show. covid-19 has essentially injected amazon with growth hormone. about e-commerce sales and the strength in e-commerce sales not only in april and may,

but in june. it is like injecting new life into amazon from a growth standpoint. so i like your comparison on the trees growing to the moon. i definitely think the trees are growing, but at some point, they have to stop growing. they can't keep growing in perpetuity. tom k: the cloud has come to the rescue for mr. bezos, but can the cardboard boxes come to the rescue? when they deliver those boxes and with a new surge of unit growth of boxes, can they bring that back to some source of margin, or dare i say med income? tom f: the challenge has been the same of the challenge for target. when you sell a lot of essentials in general and fewer discretionary items, or to your point, cloud is robust, but maybe not revenue growth in .loud, your profits suffer

they are seemingly doing everything in their power to combat covid-19, talking about in incremental spending. i think the risk for amazon is if they are not careful, they could end with a unionized labor force in the u.s. lisa: are we conflating the tech sector with amazon perhaps incorrectly, with the idea that you see the googles of the twitters, theys, are basically advertising companies. apple is consumers discretionary. things that are more susceptible to a significant downdraft in a downturn. tom f: yes, we are. if you look at e-commerce trends, what you are seeing is

that 86.7% of the u.s. that is still employed is preferring to buy online rather than go to a physical store, including rape -- aworked fiscal stores ratesal store, including at physical stores, i believe it is not the same as the trend in online advertising. lisa: are you expecting the gains of this year and a lot of the tech companies is from amazon and microsoft to stall out heading into the second half as people start to delineate between the big tech names and the forces they are subject to? tom f: absolutely. the way covid-19 looks to be a , -- multi-year

event, i think you will see a multi-quarter impact on the economy. i know that the retail sales versus april,able but i feel like the strong argument can be made that we are in a depression and not a recession, so to the extent that covid-19 is a multiyear event, i think you may see some of these more economically sensitive names like facebook and google start to stall. tom k: i have to go back to your hugely interesting comment that we could see a unionization of hundreds of thousands of employees of amazon. does that blow up the bezos model? tom f: absolutely. if you think about the acquisition of zooks, it is .bout the automation they were showcasing their drone delivery effort well before it

is ready. covid-19 has shown that they are exposed to physical labor at the fulfillment center front that is going to expedite their efforts to try to automate that, which zooks i think attends to be -- why i think acquired.nds to be jonathan: we are going to leave it there. yields are coming in over in italy, that tenure falling five basis points to 1.25%, the lowest since march 27. yields coming in in italy. we saw the belly of the curve come down to a record in the united states in the last 24 hours. yields just keep coming in. there's no question yields are coming in. but the mathematics of the way

they are curving in is profound. it is not a small issue. is it going to come up with powell or mnuchin today? i doubt it, but everyone on global wall street is following it. jonathan: coming into june, the excitement about a steeple you -- a steeper yield curve has really stalled. the themes of june looking out have faded pretty quickly. lisa: what is going to cause inflation? i think it is going to come down to that. high debt loads makes it really difficult to see inflation in the near term. chairman powell coming up a little bit later, together with secretary mnuchin on capitol hill. full coverage here on bloomberg radio and bloomberg tv. coming in aes just little bit, down five. a mild move lower of about 0.2%.

from new york city, alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

♪ from new york city, this is bloomberg surveillance. we are live on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. i'm jonathan ferro. counting you down from chairman powell and secretary mnuchin just four hours away on capitol hill. in new york city, equity futures rollover just a touch. south by a quarter of 1% on the s&p 500 as we close out cutesy with a huge quarterly loss. treasury yields coming in just a little bit of a long end. in foreign-exchange, we talked about all this morning, the dollar with a little bit of strength. several tenths of 1%. really nice almost dollar recovery. you we tried to do is give

a wonderful cross-section, the surveillance team has done a great job of that extended conversation. tomorrow, ambassador bolton will join us. right now, particularly foreign-exchange. it's probably not going to come up with steve mnuchin or with chairman powell, but it is going to come up with juckes. the dollar resiliency is extraordinary. will it continue? >> it could continue for a while. i would love to say the dollar is going down from here, but the say that, i would have to think we are through the worth of the pandemic and as you know, frankly, it doesn't feel like that to me. if we just did this on domestic but we're going to need the world to heal first. >> one the world heels, this is

a critical point. the world healing just in the case of aggregate demand, does that lead to a lassitude in foreign-exchange markets, or does it lead to a new volatility were we could make some welfare? >> i think we get more volatility when we come out of that. we've been it it stuck for a while with a strong dollar and a strong u.s. economy, high u.s. rates. the pound is down, the euro is the not. in the dollar is riding high. i think when you change that, you get more differences, partly because it's going to be a messy way. if you rise to the point where things look better, money once the flow out of the u.s. into inrging markets rather than countries that deficits like

mexico, brazil, south africa, desperate for money to help the economy is. up,then you get that move and that lets the euro go because if the euro goes up against the dollar today, when the rao is not going up and the mexican peso is not going up, that's too aggressive a rise for the euro. you that those other things start to find a new equilibrium and i think we can be pretty lively. also we are saying how far can the euro go up for the ecb gets hit with the inflation that brings. >> the next question for many people in the japanese yen. i encourage everyone to go on the bloomberg terminal. month close february, 107. month close march, 107. may, 107. as the close-out june, 107.72. why? partly because it's doing its

job. in the sense that the yen is a currency that thrives when things are bad. the japanese people don't want to take risks with any foreign currency. the rally we had in equities is bad for the yen. before, it was good for the yen. we haven't gone far enough to some degree. we've also seen everybody have roughly the same policy in terms of yields have gone town, monetary policies have been eased. i grant you, i find it frustrating as well. i take comfort in the fact that if you thinkn yen you are going to get significant further easing in monetary policy from the united states because things get worse because the yen is either going to be at 107 in 12 months time, or it's going to be at 100. it is still worth holding. it tells you that actually, at the moment, the move has been

between the euro-dollar. if the emerging markets. >> last week we had all the reasons under the sun, 10-year gilts only came down five basis points. as you look out, most people come on this program and talk about storm clouds through the year end. what can you own to hedge the risk that you taken elsewhere? yen, that would be my currency choice at least. it's a bigger conversation. be witht move has to the yield curve control or some variance of that. that would be definitely

encouraging. franc, i might have gold because the only thing we can keep on doing is driving real yields lower and lower and lower to try to get some inflation back into the system. but i would also turn around and say, that is a huge drag on fiscal policy. we will get more storm clouds in the west than they did in the east. i want everything relative to europe and the americas. >> i'm wondering, there has been this idea floated in part by stephen roach who has come out and said the u.s. is going to friend a lot of money, the dollar is going to get debased dramatically versus international currencies, and that will be the paradigm going forward leading to inflation. do you buy into that. all? >> i follow with the simple theory that we are going to print less money. -- on yesterday and

he was at least entertaining in the center that central banks struggle to print money because you create money if the demand is from people who want to if you doey, and enough irresponsible things, maybe we can get some inflation. i think it's a little simplistic that the fed can just print money. clear, if you get yield curve control in the get a states, you will weaker dollar in the same way that the japanese got the weaker yen in the fourth quarter of 2016. so the u.s. can get the dollar weaker. ,he challenge for the u.s. would that really help the global economy create lots of inflation? as opposed to helping global economy grow a little bit. end, to get real inflation into the system, we have to get past this excess of

potential labor and of goods and services in the world that has been with us for pretty much all my career. 36 years so far. it's not that easy. sense,nt money in that you might be able to send the s&p higher, but i don't know if you can get inflation around the world moving values. >> this is so important. you saying that the yield curve is more instructive in terms of an patient and where the dollar goes than the deficit of the united states? matter,aying that both but the yield curve, if you are looking for the next piece of significant easing, then anchoring the long end of the yield curve can potentially push up inflation expectations from their in a sense that there is more impact. if you want to view this in the way that money gets created, you have to anchor short-term rates and let things happen that

create demand. what the u.s. has been successful with, if i create easy fiscal policy at the same time as i incur rates, i help create public sector demand. if i don't do that, i have really cheap money that nobody wants because they can't do anything with it. and it ends up wondering around the financial system, the banks can do anything with it. you have to get some demand into the system. >> this is really important. you've been doing this for 36 years. that's longer than the last time --, that's extraordinary. i was talking about the premier league. >> bets 20 years, not even quite 20 years. conversationinto a

from the last title win. >> that would be like the chicago cubs. great toare, always see you. thank you very much. i'm very impressed, i said that about one hour ago. your knowledge of our guests and their football teams never ceases to amaze me. the learning curve has been very, very impressive. well, it's easy when you're looking at the death of american sports. i think it's amazing. to the point that mr. juckes is talking about, all those anti-seats and what is so charming, are they getting all the money back to the ticketholders? some of the money? is it nationwide? they've had some of the money backs from the game that he wasn't able to see, some of the games. some of the money.

i believe other clubs have given some of the money back as a credit to use your season ticket in the following year. we got to deal with the politics in this economy. yesterday if we confirmed whether we have larry kudlow this coming payroll, and i can confirm for you that we do. 9:30, one hour after the payroll, we will be catching up with the national economic council director. what you want to hear? >> i want to hear from mr. kudlow about fiscal policy. we want touch on that, i'm sure, with john bolton, but without question, you got to go to lawrence kudlow. the urgency the president feels to get it going, that could be a key item for president trump. >> some important conversations coming up tomorrow with mr. bolton, during this program at 8:30 eastern. then on thursday after the

payroll, we will catch up with larry kudlow. i'm jonathan ferro with equity futures rolling over going to be open. we are down 12 point on the s&p 500, down a third of 1%. for new york city this morning, good morning, this is bloomberg. >> federal reserve chairman jerome powell will warm today of the extraordinary uncertainty the coronaviruses causing the economy. he set to testify before the house financial services committee. ofwill stress the importance keeping the disease contained during economic rebound while also telling lawmakers the economy has entered a new phase. trump is reigniting concerns that he is interested in relations with the kremlin rather than u.s. interests. he has shrugged off allegations that russia offered bounties to kill american troops inept in a

stent. he has yet to demand an investigation but last night he -- john ratcliffe promised to look into the report. proposal, emissions the goal is to effectively more after the year 2050. it is seen as the opening bid in the battle of climate change this fall. servicernal revenue will not extend the tax filing deadlines past july 15. taxpayers can still get an automatic extension on that paperwork to october 15. capitalize on a surge in food delivery orders during the coronavirus pandemic, bloomberg has learned the ride-hailing service uber is in talks to buy post makes. -- postmates. global news 24 hours a day on air and @quicktake on twitter.

powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg.

♪ >> the question that all countries will face in the coming months is how to live with this virus.

that is the new normal. we all want to get on with our lives. but the hard reality is this is not even close to being over. is yet to come, the who director general weighing in on the situation. worldwide there is a lack of coordination that continues to be an issue for many people in many organizations worldwide. for new york city this morning, good morning to you all. together with lisa, i'm jonathan ferro. the drumbeat to chairman powell and secretary mnuchin continues, we will hear from the net 12:30 .astern we will be joined on what you need to look for today. over the next 30 days, but for the november and beyond. prescription,s

that will be interesting. right now as we consider the policy and the virus, the policy and the pandemic, max joins us from bloomberg news. on his workpedic and also his reading of the literature on this horrific pandemic. is to become a fast-moving story since we last spoke to you. it's incredible what happened. where are we by this weekend? what are you watching just to get out to the holiday weekend? >> i think i'm watching whether a few other states start to join those sunbelt states that have seen the greatest uptick in the virus, specifically keeping an eye on nevada, keeping an eye on wisconsin and georgia. not just in terms of case growth, but whether they learned the lesson of these states.

at early. because if you want to take aggressive action, if you want to walk back to reopening instead of bringing it to a screeching halt, you need to act early because there is a lag with this virus. now,ata you are getting the cases you are seeing now are the results of behaviors and policy weeks ago. if you want to arrest the growing curve, you have to be early. the bag whenout of it comes to acting early in the sunbelt. how much better prepared a re-in terms of beds, in terms of nursing capabilities, in terms of remedies. seeinge of the hospital intensive care unit beds fill up to the brim. >> substantially better than the spring when everyone was just scrambling with a real lack of data. there is some upside to these

outbreaks, so far they've done a comparatively better job at protecting the elderly. the real risk over time and the thing that will potentially make things difficult, even in better prepared hospital systems is when you lose that containment, something that becomes increasingly risky when you have the level of circulation that is going on right now. hopefully people will get the memo and become appropriately, dramatically more cautious in these areas that are having difficulty, but every little thing, every measure taken to protect people gets more but there's more circulation. meanwhile, arizona has shut that down, florida has closed bars. where are we in tracking and tracing some of these other measures that could potentially allow cities and states to reopen and not necessarily see the upsurge in cases that we've seen in the sunbelt. >> very much a work in progress.

i think you can see in these escalating outbreaks. the issue is that for contact tracing to work, when you start to go there when you don't have your maximum capacity, it's hard to do when there is a significant amount of circulation in the community. basically impossible when there is a big rolling outbreak. in order for that to be a long-term effective tool, you have to genuinely bring incidents down, did the outbreak under controls and you can start to actually do individual cases and make a difference. is goingmething that to be exceptionally difficult with a high level of incidents and substantially open economies. we are hoping in the sunbelt at the moment. different are seeing schools of death and adjust, some local and some not. williams college cut their tuition yesterday to eliminate sports i believe for the fall. that's fine. what about the kids?

what about nursery schools, elementary schools, middle schools. is there a national consensus on what they would or should or can do? not, and it's a tremendously difficult question because obviously that's a huge priority. everything we are hearing about the relative success of remote good and it's not very it is especially bad for the kids most likely to be left behind in low-income neighborhoods, and poorly performing schools. and also just for the economy, it is such a priority to get kids back in schools of people can get back to work. that needs to be the priority. that needs to be the specific policy goal going forward, and if the reopening trajectory is it going to get us there to have us at a place for that possible, it needs to change substantially.

>> thank you so much. pharmacologyful with this virus. what an extraordinary two quarters of 2020. i can honestly say i've never seen it. >> i will say both when it comes to markets and also when it comes to the daily life, my oldest son said to me, do you think we could be back to normal one year from now? and i look at him and i shrugged. we don't know. that lack of certainty can be to keep things as normal as possible for as long as possible going into the second half. of all ourc theme conversations today and the consensus is that somewhere out there, august, september, i guess the check is in the mail, that's what the president wants. october, probably the first monday of november we will get a check in the mail. i just don't buy it. what i see ghosts of the jobs

report that will see on thursday. lisa, i don't understand how we get to august 15 right now unless we see a real improvement in the labor statistics. and deutsche bank put out a chart yesterday showing that about half the population currently is not in the workforce in the united dates. there are questions about europe and the enhanced unemployment benefit scheme, the ways they are keeping people with a paycheck regardless of their employment, how that is slated to end. there's a real question of when this actually leads to the decline, the increase in bankruptcies, and economic pain that a lot of people have been expecting. >> no question, much more to come across bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. ofdive into the second half 2020. again, a lot of good a storetions for these

moment in economics, finance, and investment as well. markets really interesting now. on, stronger,ocus resilient dollar over the last few days. please stay with us, this is bloomberg. it's pretty inspiring the way families

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>> from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. the countdown to the open starts right now with equity peters negative. we begin with a big issue. three months ago we all said we would need a policy through the middle of the year to help us get to the other side. that bridge is going to need an extension. >> the fed acted in unprecedented response, the real question is how long will the government intervention go on. virus versuss the the stimulus. >> what needs to happen, and there is now total agreement on this, is a handoff. handoff from central banks. who have theose tools were have been willing to deploy them. that is under the control of the politicians. >> more nee