>> what we are seeing at the moment is the sugar high. it doesn't really tell us about the medium-term trajectory for economies. >> we know there are large sways of the price data that are being made up, literally made up. >> it's got to be the real economy that performs. otherwise, none of these companies will be able to make it through 222 anyone. 2021.through to >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone. will you are with us. a most interesting day.

it started out boring earlier this morning. it is not boring anymore. john will do -- jon will do a data check. 0.5% inaq 100 up a good the last 30, 40 minutes. i am going to say that the chancellor of the exchequer, or the egg shells, whatever it is, giving a speech in the united kingdom really talks about the stimulus to come. that has been the underpinning to a good feeling about this market. jonathan: this is smart policy we are seeing from the u.k., and it lays down a market for fiscal authorities elsewhere as well. let's start with the labor market and with the chancellor is doing today. the chancellor is incentivizing -- the government is companies to bring back employees. they are really trying to help the young.

the companies will want to be incentivized as well. how do you incentivize them? you offer them money to help hire young people. that is an important step as well. now we've got to talk about the industry getting really beaten up. restaurants, hospitality, tourism. the chancellor essentially announcing some tax relief for those particular industries as well. this is what we are likely to see in the coming weeks and months outside of the u.k., looking to make this fiscal transition as you go from insulating the economy to stimulating it. the smart policy is to look at the specific areas of this economy you need to stimulate. at the epicenter of that, hospitality and tourism. tom: what's fascinating about this is the process is different in each nation. not just the united states, but every nation is different from the apparent smoothness we see

in the united kingdom. this goes to the 10 year option you mentioned earlier that will see -- that we will see i believe today, and the financial system in the united states appears to be running smoothly as we await the next $1 trillion or $1.5 trillion of stimulus. lisa: another way of saying that yields are a drug autumn, meaning it has never been cheaper for these governments to borrow money, so why not do it? raising the existential question of windows debt matter. we have been talking about that throughout the program. but the issue is how these are targeted. we talked about the enhanced unemployment benefit, set to run out at the end of this month. the $600 benefit per individual in addition to the normal unemployment benefit that have financed abilities to spend. how much will that encourage

people to get rehired as the united kingdom is trying to do? tom: a lot to talk about today, and part of our good conversation with markets elevated. i do want to mention gold out to $1815 at one point. right now, jim bianco joins us with bianco research. economics, finance, and investment with great prescience. thank you for joining us today. i want you to talk about the confidence you have that these markets, and particularly this equity market, can run as it has been running given the assumption of stimulus. ?s that a given jim: it is a given. i think that is exactly what has been driving this market. if you look apostolic of the recovery, you could really make the case that the economy is

plateauing, if not rolling over. but then you throw into that mix that you've got central-bank stimulus, bailouts. look at what happened in the u.k. today. promises of tax cuts and incentives to hire people. all of that gets washed away, and these markets power higher. that begs the question, what changes this? the thing that i think changes this is if we were to get an inflation fear and/or higher interest rates. as long as rates stay low, governments and central banks can continue this extraordinary action and markets will respond positively. jonathan: i agree with you that monetary policy has exacerbated the trend in valuation, but i think it would be disingenuous of me to say the equity market has not picked up on the stumble. in america, if you neutralize the muscle tech and look at the equal weighted s&p 500, we are

down about 10% over the last month area the market is picking up on this, isn't it? jim: it is. this is not the late 1990's bull market of technology, where everything is going to the moon. there's the faang stocks plus maybe tesla, square, and a couple other names powering higher. but the risk market has recovered over the previous decline we had in february and march, and it seems to be holding it up. that is really the number one thing going on, so looking all justis, it is not wonderful news. it is still the big story pushing this market higher. lisa: it is the big story pushing the best companies that have a chance to survive higher. brooks brothers just filing for

chapter 11, this crossing the bloomberg terminal right now. at what point does the cascade of bankruptcies become systemic risk, affecting even some of the higher rated companies that have enjoyed record low borrowing costs, as well as fed and government support? jim: i think when the general level of interest rates goes up, that is the bond market sending a signal that they are going to reject all of the borrowing and they are afraid that there is inflation. we don't have that right now, so that doesn't seem to be an issue. but on the inflation front, let me offer you one anecdote. shack reported a seam decline.e that is just one example, but you keep repeating that example long enough and we might get that inflation fear that everybody seems to be talking about.

that would show up with the bond market and higher yields. but again, that is not happening right now. jonathan: i love catching up with you, but the line is a little bit flaky, so we are going to have to let you go. we will try to get you back on the show very soon. we are focused on the next fiscal steps worldwide and how things will develop in the coming months. in the united kingdom, the chancellor wrapping up his address to the house of commons, incentivizing rehiring and offering targeted tax relief to the industries that will struggle in the months and maybe years to come. tom: there's no question about it. i am going to go into the idea that we will see nothing like this out of washington. because it is an election year as well, i would really look for secretary mnuchin, the somewhat equivalent to the chancellor of the exchequer, to really be front and center in this

process, driving it forward given an election year. is 1.i thinkre this administration may be very well aligned with what the u.k. is doing this morning, and that is incentivizing rehiring. there is a reluctance to carry over the enhanced on and play my benefits, but there is consensus on the need to incentivize rehiring. i just wonder whether some of the ideas this morning from the u.k. resonate with fiscal policy makers elsewhere. lisa: you have on one hand this idea of how you financially encourage companies to rehire individuals. on the other side, you have the virus, which continues. if people don't want to go to restaurants because they are scared of getting sick, they are not going to go even if they have vouchers to do so. this is the big conundrum, which is how much do you support industries that are not going to see the foot traffic because of the pendant area -- of the

pandemic wherein? it is such a challenging situation to craft the appropriate program around. jonathan: this is what underlines the need for continued fiscal support. ahead of the election you mentioned in november, that is why this administration will have to continue to step up and step in and help various industries, and still support the shocks to income across this nation. best case, even among steeples bestongst the bulls, their case is something around 9%, and 9% unemployment in america is not good enough. tom: i am so glad you brought this up. the most important number of the week is tomorrow at 8:30, where we really need to see what claims do. this is high-frequency data, and that will directly involve the fiscal debate. everyone will be paying attention to how those forecasts change.

they are not going to change off the monthly jobs report. they are going to change off the high-frequency data. jonathan: and what the claims data will speak to is the huge amount of churn that ellen zentner of morgan stanley last week was addressing. beneath the surface, the amount of jobs coming off, the permanent job losses, the claims that are still elevated week after week, this is an economy that will still need support. jonathan: --lisa: it is devastating because what that means is people are moving from just laying off workers in an emergency setting and taking a look at their business and saying it is going to be smaller going forward. i think about the airline industry in particular, which has been trying to generate enough cash to survive, but you see a surge of distressed debt abounding within the airlines. i do wonder what the world look like on the others out of this. jonathan: smart fiscal policy is going to be critical, and we got a little flavor of that this morning from the united kingdom

and the british chancellor. around one hour 19 minutes away from the opening bell, equity futures are slightly elevated. we advanced 0.2%. alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. newu.k. has announced a $11.3 billion job retention bonus. companies will get a bonus for each employee they bring back to work. chancellor of the exchequer rishi sunak is selling his plan to get the economy going again. cutting the tax on some home purchases. u.s. is planning a coronavirus testing surge in three states hit hard by the pandemic. temporary testing sites are being set up in louisiana, texas, and florida. that could help health experts

get a clearer picture of how the virus is moving pretty population. meanwhile, officials are weighing how far to go in reopening the economy or rolling back steps already taken. bolsonaro president defending his approach to the coronavirus despite the fact it has killed tens of thousands of brazilians and left him with the disease as well. bolsonaro had called the virus "a little flu," and battled officials who wanted stricter quarantine measures. the president of mexico is taking the biggest gamble of his 19 months in office. he is in washington to meet with president trump, despite the advice of some of his top counselors not to go. he wants to safeguard the commercial connection between the entries. trump is reviled south of the border raven called mexican criminals and rapists. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in

more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the rescue package that the president led with bipartisan ppport in congress and the

that secretary mnuchin fostered is thelemented, it furloughs that are coming down. we kept people connected to their employers. a lot of temporary layoffs will go back to work. jonathan: there a kudlow, the national economic -- larry kudlow, the national economic council director in the united states, as policies come into sharper focus in july. in your equity market, we advanced five points on the s&p 500, up a little more than 0.1%. tom: it has been a nice move in the market today, certainly a nice rebound off of her we were two hours ago. right now, to drive forward the discussion on stimulus, we have with is a gentleman from the 10th district of north carolina, patrick mchenry. he has been steeped in politics, going back to george bush the younger. he was involved in that successful run for president in

2000. thank you for joining us today. what is the best outcome for conservative republicans in this fiscal trajectory of the next 6, 7, and eight weeks? for those that are frugal and have frugal constituents, what is the best outcome? rep. mchenry: ideological concerns are different when you have a house fire. what we have is a major house fire here, so we've got to get that right. then get back on solid footing. is me, i think that approach how do you get people back in employment in safe and effective ways. the first part is health safety. without health safety, nothing of matters. we have to have substantial funds so we have a pipeline of treatments that have been borne out by scientific proof, as well as potentially a vaccine. you get that right, which requires a substantial amount of

government money with private sector innovation, and then you get to the question of a rehiring bonus and tax policy that incentivizes businesses to get back in the risk business. to safely reopen, to take the proper risks, and to know they have a foundation upon which to take that risk. i think that is really important, so rehiring bonuses would be substantial and helpful con that -- would be substantial and helpful. and in major parts of the country, federal benefits for unappointed. thatnk tapering down unemployment benefit would be smart policy. jonathan: are you getting frustrated by the lack of clarity and detail you're getting from this administration in the month of july kailey: rep. mchenry: -- in the month of july? rep. mchenry: yes. we saw the house democrats produce a partisan bill that got no were publican boats.

they even lost democrat votes. so that is not a serious point of discussion. what we want to hear is that agenda so that we can have trump economy 2. we just came out of the best economy and most of our lifetimes. the policy set we implemented to what wasupport happening in the private sector and lifted us to new heights. let's put that agenda out. let's be bold about it. let's hear from the white house on the details so that we can iron out the policy on the hill. that is really what i want to hear, and it has been frustrating that we haven't had that detailed site yet. jonathan: why are they dragging their feet? is it making it difficult in your constituency to talk to your constituents about why there isn't a plan b on the month of july? the month ofbeyond july? rep. mchenry: we were saying

that summer was going to take this thing down with the flu season, and that was just a couple of months ago. we had health experts tell us not to wear masks in the beginning of the year. so the idea that you are going to see two months or three months in the future in this environment is really hard. i think there's some understanding that we wanted to be hesitant to lay out a broad policy path before we actually understand the confines of this. now we are in july. we need to see that clearly from the administration, and from states and localities about ng, because that is a vital aspect as well. don't have childcare, it is very difficult to get back to some semblance of normal life. you talk about a lack of cohesion and certain the about what he told policies are going to be going forward, and yet you have also admonished fed chair jay powell for perhaps blurring

the lines between monetary and fiscal policy. some argue that because there policyany faster fiscal -- there hasn't been a faster fiscal policy, there has been a need for monetary policy to bridge that gap. do you think you have been to slow, and have forced the fed to act? rep. mchenry: not yet. if we screw this up in late july and august, i think that would be the case, but i don't see secretary ofthe the treasury before my committee and the chair of the federal reserve, i always remind them that there is this wall between monetary follow -- monetary policy and fiscal policy, and the hill should not get into the weeds of monetary policy, nor should the fed chair direct fiscal policy. i've got to tell you, jay powell action mark for his fast

and being very foresighted. his foresight is absolutely amazing in this environment. when they laid out main street lending, it took a long time to get that ramped up, but it was a very clear sign of policymakers on the hill that we've got the lending piece. you guys get the stimulus piece. you get people connected with their employment and get people off the end employment roles, or give them support so they can get back into the economy. that is something we hear clearly. i think they picked their lane smartly. i think they have stayed in their lanes smartly, however, really aggressively. we will have to have these programs pull back from the economy, but at this stage, we are still trying to put this house fire out. tom: we need to get down to asheville and do a remote down there. team "surveillance," asheville, north carolina. i can see it now. patrick mchenry, thank you so much.

this is so important, but he is in a district from asheville over to the east of rural north carolina. how is the president how are vice president biden going to do in that district come november? jonathan: and what you got there was just a little bit of a hint, just a little flavor of the division slowly emerging, the frustration between republican congressmen and women at the d.c.t down in washington, looking for leadership on the next fiscal steps, and a real lack of clarity on what they might. i think what he said was smart. look at tapering enhanced unemployment benefits, not just letting them expire. these are the plans we need to see quickly. tom: there's no question about that. that tapering idea you were dead on about, but it is going to be interesting to see the overlay of the election into this fractured contention season.

jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning to you all. alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg surveillance ."

jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene together with lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. checking in your equity markets. equity futures up four points, up a little more than .1%. no drama in the equity market. quite choppy overnight. , sticky overarket the last several weeks. yields lower. higher this morning not even two basis points 2.60 6% on u.s. 10 year. firmer,d a little bit up against the u.s. dollar as the chancellor unveils the next steps for fiscal policy and united kingdom and baby elsewhere as well, including the

united states -- and maybe elsewhere as well. we are also on bankruptcy watch. now we have another one. tom: you see it nationwide. i do not have the statistics in front of me but the bankruptcies have exploded. this is brooks brothers. they take great prize in making their ties on long island. 2001, brooks11, , this suit isston not brooks brothers. it is oxford, chicago.

brooks brothers now in bankruptcy. neiman marcus as well. someone who has been a great student of this has been jeremy siegel. he is something. working withton larry kudlow for years at cnbc. , whois jeremy siegel worked with robert shiller years ago at m.i.t.. he has been a great supply-sider , someone looking at the free markets. his friend robert shiller has gone a different way. we are thrilled the gentleman from morton could join us. thank you for joining us. robert shiller talked about finance and a good society. inthis modern capitalism pandemic providing for a good society? jeremy: wow. did not expect to be hit by that

question number one. [laughter] let's put it this way. unfortunately, i think in some ways unfortunately, the pandemic, the shutdowns have shifted advantage to large corporations. the targets, the walmart, those able to stay open, to have the thentory, to provide necessary protections against the mom-and-pop stores. they are the ones that are suffering. of -- the market value holding up extremely well, while with we had a stock market for mom-and-pop stores it would be in the subbasement. this is such an important conversation. i give great credit to catherine

mann at citigroup for driving forward this to make. -- driving forward this debate. are we are becoming too monopolistic where we will see a consolidation of companies to bigger and bigger entities? there has been a shift, and obviously you're going to see some of the big companies that have resources buy the smaller companies. i think that is also true. know we can look beyond this crisis to next year, where year,k by very early next maybe even the end of this year, effective vaccines. it will come back, but it will come back with a shift towards

the bigger companies having we inage, and perhaps public policy should think about making sure small businesses get credit to reopen and not cede all ground to those large retailers. lisa: you raise a great question, which is how do we preserve dynamism in an economy hit by a pandemic which does seem to be accelerating. new jersey's governor just ordered all new jersey to wear masks outdoors to prevent the outbreak that does seem to be picking up in that state. what is the consequence on productivity, on growth, on the dynamism of the u.s. economy if there is not an incentive to sway the power back to smaller businesses a bit more? the question of

productivity is an interesting one. i believe that we are going to see a surge of measured believe,ity because i and there are two sides to the coin. i think a lot of these people who have been laid off will not be hired back because corporations will say i did not need them. i did not need to incur these expenses. we are talking about business travel and business meetings. zoom andthem free on still produce the output i did before. that is one measure that productivity. output per unit input. you are talking also about dynamism and discovery and invention. let's hope that does not get impeded.

some of my contacts in the venture-capital world say it is proceeding and money is still available for innovation, it is innovative companies that are still getting plays. let's hope that stays there, and that connects with immigration. as a professor, we are very worried about some of the recent doom,lings, it is all students cannot stay here. there are a lot of very good issues. measured productivity as standard may increase over the next several years because of this pandemic. lisa: let's bring it down from the 30,000 foot view of our economy to the here and now, which is that people are scared for their futures and their jobs and they are stockpiling cash at a record pace.

you believe and you've been reported as saying there is a booming consumer spending. can you square that with this idea we will see resumption in corporate spending? we are seeing an increase in slowdown of the u.s. economy? jeremy: i was schooled, my first as a professor at the university of chicago. i was honored to be a colleague of professor milton freeman. i remember him telling me fed expansion is very important, but look at the money supply, which is the supply of bank accounts, of transactions accounts, demand deposits, checking accounts, payroll deposits, and all the rest. i have seen an explosion like we have not seen in the postwar period. supply is up 34%

from the first week of march. just to give you a perspective, in the entire gear -- in the entire year that followed the lehman crisis, until september of 2010, the money supply was only up 17%. this 34% is just the beginning. we'll be putting more stimulus back in. repressed not because travel is not taking place, restaurants are crippled, and all of the rest, but i'm thinking towards 2021. this money and people's accounts is going to be spent. not all the people will be hired back because as i say a lot of companies can say i can still provide the output without them.

nonetheless, i think we are going to have inflation next year and i know that is not at but insensus forecast, 2021, 2022, with a strong consumer spending. tom: thank you so much. jeremy siegel with us. with mortonvisit school at the university of pennsylvania. i look at all we are talking about, and professor siegel told us to watch this over the years. all of this pandemic and all of this crisis, the trillions of dollars of debt we have will test the underlying theories that hinge everybody together in economics, finance, and investment. you saw that in the house of commons, where there is a theory and action. i am unsure if you will see something as cohesive out of washington. jonathan: something i said

earlier and i will repeat, this is an observation about the present, not a judgment about the future. the bond market is still wide open for fiscal authorities to do more. at some point you test the ability of a bond market to absorb that. when it comes to the debt, you have to draw a distinction between the debt built up on the central bank balance sheet, and the debt built up in the private sector. companies are taking on a lot of debt next -- a lot of debt to get through the next several months and they'll have to pay that down. that will be a focal point for the years to come. the debt built up in their ability to pare it down. companies on about projects to do that. dominion resources, that is what they will do with a large part of the proceeds from warren buffett and berkshire hathaway. jonathan: looking at the equity market, futures turning a little bit lower. basically unchanged on the s&p

500, going nowhere into the opening bell around 50 minutes away. from new york city, alongside tom together with lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro. on bloomberg radio and bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. the clock is ticking on the u.s. decision to leave the world health organization. president trump has given the organization one year notice it plans to quit. attics say the move is aimed distracting from the administration's failure to control the disease. many americans plan to spend less than before on the coronavirus pandemic. more than 40% of adults say they will cut back on some of the discretionary spending that struggling retailers need according to a new survey from credit cards.com. it is the book the trump family

tried to stop being published. bloomberg has obtained a copy of a tell-all book written by president trump's estranged knees. -- estranged niece. among other things, she claims president trump paid someone to take the college entrance exam for him. facebook is out with its third civil-rights audit report. auditors say the social network has a long way to go. on the plus side, the auditors say facebook has deepened its relationship with civil-rights group and leaders. the report disagrees with the company when it comes to fat checking politicians. a number of civil rights leaders met with mark zuckerberg and call the meeting disappointing. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i do not think anyone expects the u.s. to try to engineer a break to that page anytime soon. i think it would have significant blowback through the

financial system to the u.s. economy. it is sending a signal to the global financial system that the u.s. is serious about ramping up pressure on china. those comments from rupert harrison at blackrock following a report that officials of the trump administration are weighing options to undermine the hong kong dollar peg. from new york city, alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. about to step away to get you up to speed on the opening bell as we count you down to the opening. looking to catch up with tony rodriguez. signs of fragility start to come to the surface and the rally of the last several months. tom: no question about that. it will be interesting to follow into the open at 9:00 on bloomberg television. we will be with paul sweeney on bloomberg radio. extraordinary what we are seeing in technology. ourt now, without question,

interview of the day, if not of the week on the social fabric of this nation. it would normally be an interview on trade with a former ambassador on trade with president obama, mr. kirk of texas, but that is not the case. kirked to talk to ron about the reagan high school in austin, texas, about the mayor of dallas, texas, and we need to talk about the path forward. we are honored to have you with us today. we are seeing images of statues torn down. they will not do that in front of the alamo, but we are seeing images coast-to-coast of statues being pulled down. how do we resurrect the new statues, how do we rebuilt this nature is with statues our kids can be proud of? ronald: first of all, thanks for having me. we are taking a turn i did not expect, but not one i have not

spoken to quite a bit over the last several months. first of all, the more important journey is not about which statues we replace what with. the baker journey is what is in our hearts and will we get to the systemic matters that have part, theor the most overwhelming majority of blacks and latinos and poor people in this country's to be locked out of the economic system? iile you mentioned that graduated from john reagan high schools, a school named for a confederate general, my concern is if we spend more attention on taking down the names of the statues, we do not address the systemic problem we have in some of our police communities over the fair treatment of blacks and poor people, if we do not address those underlying factors

that hold people of color back economically, we will have only declaredw drapes and victory and move forward. i am much more interested in attacking the core issues that ,ave plagued this country whether the last 70 years or 200 years, but far too long. tom: i will be blunt. the tough asn nails politics of texas as in richards gave you guidance. there is always been a grace underneath the toughness of texas politics. how do we get that praise back to washington after a one term president trump or after a two term president trump? how do we get the grace back at the federal level? ronald: this is a business show,

not a political show, but if nothing else, president trump has taught us all that the tone at the top matters. what people are really caring about is the restoration of grace and civility, and that will be a long path in and of itself. then you have to start with the belief this has to be a one term president. he does not have it within his dna to ever demonstrate even a modicum amount of grace or forgiveness. or recognition of when he is wrong. people haveamerican to recognize donald trump did not start this degradation of our civility. he did bring to the surface and give cover to a lot of americans who are afraid of our changing demographics, and we are seeing that across the country.

all you have to do is look at any of your newsfeeds and see one more incident of a black family, and asian family, a hispanic family being attacked. there is a boldness i do not think people would have notnstrated if they were getting over direction from the white house. the other thing i've told people is we are responsible for that. if you want more civility, if you want political leaders to find the common ground, stop voting for these jerks who go to washington, refused to compromise, see one another as enemy combatants, versus all of us who care about and love this country and want it to live up to our ideals and are willing to fight for that. it starts with the power of that vote. peopleenge the american to vote for the kind of politicians you say in your

heart you want to see representing us. do not stop there. examine your own behavior in the workplace and in corporate america and see whether or not we are living up to those ideals. lisa: ambassador, since this is a business show i want to get a quick question in. given the fact we have so much emphasis on supply chains in the wake of the pandemic, do you think we need a different trade policy with this in mind in order to bring medical supply productions and other essential services that united states? ronald: sure. about president lopez in mexico to the u.s.. this is where trade policy does matter. is anthe new nafta improvement, it has taken the old car in the garage that your parents gave you and putting a new engine, putting new bells and whistles versus a new

architecture like the trump administration threw away with the tpp that would allow us to have access, whether it is medical supplies or technology or raw materials we need to drive our economy, and more importantly, give us free access to these new emerging markets that desperately want to grow using the best of what we make in america. this pandemic has demonstrated the folly of having a tariff policy that ends up compromising our ability to access the tools we need to fight this disease. tom: these are many conversations that we need longer conversations. ron kirk, we have to get you back on again soon. thank you so much for joining us. he has a former mayor of dallas. lots coming up. jonathan ferro will drive forward on television, we will drive forward on radio with the

markets refusing to go down. i will also point out the search we see in gold. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ it's pretty inspiring the way families

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morning, good morning. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. turning away from the dominance of mega cap tech in america with the fragility beneath the surface. >> the headwinds are stiffening. >> the chaotic response of the u.s.. >> the delay in the reopening. >> the race between trump and biden. >> it will be challenging for the u.s. to continue that outperformance. >> europe is opening up to travel. >> you're getting real fiscal stimulus. >> europe has put in place a strong policy framework. >> the valuations are a lot cheaper. >> the money is starting to move out of the u.s. and into the rest of the world. marketse and emerging are an opportunity. >> the rest of the world looks attractive. jonathan: this is a theme that is starting to come through the surface in the last week or so. the s&p