>> global coronavirus cases approach 13 million, new cases in florida break records, the pandemic shutters schools in hong kong again. :'s andrzej duda is said to win ae election by a thin margin, result seen as pivotal for future ties with the eu. beijing will sanction officials in response to washington's condemnation of the crackdown. i'm yousef gamal el-din. we've got a situation where the

are in charge. nothing is able to put a dent in the rally at the moment. what is happening on the s&p 500, futures contracts. we are called higher by about .3%. we have new sanctions from china off the back of that, we saw a little cut back, but overall, a positive picture. it is all about earnings as we look ahead to pepsico later on in the afternoon, the impact of the coronavirus in focus and adjusted etf's fall 23% could be on the cards. the german bund, largely pointged, negative zero 46. an unwinding of some haven demand, italian bonds slipping. shaping up. the dollar, weakening against g10 peers, about 1/5 of 1% and copper is a standout in the commodities space. a bit of a rally on the way in the industrial metals overall,

coming roaring out of the blocks. also because we are looking at potential supply risks because covid-19 has laid low mineworkers in chile. its get to the first word news. 's electoral commission says incumbent andrzej duda is set to win the country's presidential vote. the campaign saw the highest turnout since the fall of communism. intellectual election monitors them for failing in impartial coverage. wonelection board says he 51.2% of the vote with the opposition taking less than 49%. only a quarter of business leaders say the organizations are fully ready for the end of the brexit transition period. nearly half of the u.k. company directors polled late last month said they weren't able to

prepare for a transition now, with many saying they need more clarity. the survey by the institute of directors found the financial sector the most prepared while manufacturers had the most still to do. more than half a million hong kong residents have defied government warnings to vote in an unofficial primary. the strong turnout represented more than 13% of registered voters and is a signal of continued resistance to beijing's recent decision to impose a national security law. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. thank you very much. the virus continues to surge in hotspots across america. withda has a daily record

15,000 new cases. the nasdaq, outperforming. john hardy is the head of fx -- of fx strategy at saxo bank. for anyone trying to get out of this reflexive cage, what can you tell them this morning? john: not a whole lot. thisis one of the risks in . hugh can put your charge of your bloomberg dollar versus the s&p 500 and it seems to copy move for move. it is really about the ongoing plentiful,quidity but do we continue to see things improve? i'm not sure i have the answers but we are a key numbers -- levels across the markets, i think if we close above it is significant but we have more

confidence the outlook is improving. europe is so dependent on exports for its current-account surplus as a driver, that would be a big boost for the european outlook if we are seeing a better sense of the global economy back on the rails. yousef: we've got some important andings around the corner as much as your primary focus is understand going to the impact of covid-19 across the balance sheets. any specific sectors you put a flag on in the coming hours? john: i think it is so difficult because you have a q2, results were a catastrophe, equity analysts saying the worst since 2011. across allumption, sectors linked to the economy, what their expectations are and what the confidence level is or

how cautious they are. the second derivative is, does the market care? pocketset, in some certainly, seems to be off on a speculative run here. to not look toward those things but the median company, the average company out there and collectively across the board how confident and if there is any visibility in outlook based on the last portions of this most recent quarter and what they are seeing now. yousef: a lot of the voices we have spoken to this morning keep pointing out that the european catchingory still has up to do compared to what has happened in the united states in particular. i look at the euro trade, upcoming ecb decision, but am also looking at the potential recovery fund they might sign off on and i begin to wonder what opportunity exists there. again, there is a lot of opportunity there, especially

you mentioned the equity story. rotation of european assets could be a boost for the euro on top of everything but it hinges on the outlook. is the outlook improving, is the more confidence in the outlook on the other side of this covid-19 outbreak or do we get bogged down because resurgence requires new law downs and more cautious behavior among consumers? that is what happening hinges on but that is an add-on boost that could keep the euro headed higher toward 1.20, even if we break above 1.14. what else would you recommend to clients because the markets live team talks about nasdaq becoming a haven play for investors and that comes with risks. you needs to be done is fall back on the traditional havens, gold, dollar-yen, maybe even bitcoin if you are looking for something more creative.

where else is there an option to perhaps mitigate the risks that are unfolding in front of our eyes? john: there are two ways to play this. thee are looking to positive side, something like this can canadian currencies are interesting. technical levels, we are seeing this improved outlook on top of a euro rally, something like the dollar versus the norwegian simplyo the downside, from a valuation perspective. if things are worsening, we are starting to see in increased move into safe havens, a reversal in the run-up in the u.s., for example. if we see a bigger bid into safe haven bonds, the japanese yen could come alive. it has been so quiet dollar-yen for some time but the yen versus other commodity currencies, other currencies expected to do well if the economy improves.

if that doesn't happen, there is repricing in yen crosses. those are two ways you can take fx in the next coming weeks to a quarter. yousef: hold that thought. john hardy from saxo bank. some breaking lines from a government report emanating out of germany. basically, the economy continues to recover following the evening of the coronavirus related restrictions but remains below capacity. economic recovery is still at the very beginning. capacities are still clearly underused. we keep a close eye on that. poland's electoral commission says andrzej duda has taken 51.2% of the vote in the presidential election. we will bring you the details from warsaw in the program. this is bloomberg. ♪

yousef: economics, finance, and politics. this is bloomberg. i'm yousef gamal el-din in dubai. here is leigh-ann gerrans. >> good morning. unequal pay lawsuit at the u.k. supreme court could see thousands of mostly female supermarket workers obtain better wages. the court will consider whether walmart has been unfairly paying some staff less than workers in

warehouses who are mostly male. if the company loses the case, the cost to the sector could be as much as 8 billion pounds. the pay is the same. credit suisse said to be considering cutting hundreds of jobs as the coronavirus boosts online operations. the swiss newspaper reports the bank is looking to save money to meet profit targets. the new ceo is said to be considering cuts to the lender's domestic branch network rather than splitting off the investment bank, which was the cornerstone of his predecessor's plan. tesla has shaved $3000 off the price of the model y crossover four months after sales began. the cuts see it drop below $50,000. the reduction follows similar moves for tesla's other models, the s, x, and 3, which some analysts see as signs of weak

demand. tesla has delivered more than 90,000 cars in the second quarter, beating analyst forecasts. that is your bloomberg business flash. that,: thank you for leigh-ann gerrans. let's talk about the recovery in china because that is set to continue, but slower than expected. likely shows week resilience despite a resurgence in covid-19 cases in beijing. bloomberg predicts real gdp to ask -- have expanded 3.4% year on year in the second quarter, higher than the forecast of 2%. sanctionsannounced against u.s. officials including senators marco rubio and ted cruz halloween u.s. legislation intended to punish beijing over actions against ethnic minorities. i look at market reaction to these developing lines from the

there is barely notable reaction whatsoever. is the market mispricing this risk? if by the market you mean the chinese currency, i think chinese currency tends to move because that is what the chinese authority wanted to go. it moves where they wanted to go and that is what you are seeing, an attempt to bolster confidence in the renminbi. basket,gher against its and i think the risk for china, and one of the reasons you are seeing this strength and maybe some of the strength in the chinese equity markets, it is not just the recovery but an attempt to show attractiveness for the currency as it needs to get off of dollar dependency if we are moving to a world with ongoing disengagement, deglobalization, especially between the u.s. and china. that brings risks around chinese entities that are dependent on

dollar funding. that is what i see as the market, but we need to track things carefully for signs of escalation, for sure. yousef: when you look at key atrics and what emerges is story of gradual spill over into pockets of the financial markets, these tensions are getting reflected in things like the hong kong dollar, gtv for clients for additional perspective. this is a hong kong dollar's suffering from a bout of weakness. it has already lost the most in a month at the end of last week. let me get your analysis on this. what should i be taking away from this chart? it is difficult. some of the recent strength in the hong kong dollar was a move against speculators and to show the chinese authorities want to have hong kong as an important

option for its interface with the rest of the world. mainland is effectively closed so hong kong is important for china. the recent volatility could be around the political situation, but this whole dollar peg -- or dollar currency board management, currency managed according to a narrow band is such a critical factor, doesn't make sense to be linked to the dollar. all of these existential questions are critical but day-to-day, political headlines are important. i also looked in at a story that has captured the imagination of our clients and readers from around the world. an investigative patient -- piece that shows lawmakers are pushing stakeholders to transact more in the yuan. we have broken down the reserve currencies in terms of what is represented, and the dollar remains supreme and there were a

few others in there, but the yuan is still about 2%. is this an inflection point potentially where because of the heightened tensions, you have more and more of a push out of the greenback? again, it is so critical for china if we are moving to an era where the u.s. and china are increasingly disengaging, this dependency on the dollar for global trade is just a mission-critical thing for china so they would like to see their trading partners able to transact in the chinese yuan, which they can control themselves but it is difficult when you have a closed capital account. kenny trading partner rely on your currency? they want to boost confidence in -- yuan, but whether they do.

important tory watch and track how successful they are increasing trade volumes denominated in chinese yuan. yousef: emerging markets, china aside? john: top emerging markets? i think if you look at the south african rand, it is interesting to track versus metals. it is a risky currency with all kinds of issues, but it has done very well. i see that currency performing well versus what should be a concerning backdrop. certainly one i am tracking with the most interest now and could be critical for the story of inflation, especially hard asset inflation, could be an interesting currency to track along those lines. more on inflation. yousef: i really appreciate those insights. that is john hardy, head of fx

strategy from saxo bank. still to come on the program, wall street firms are set to release earnings and allies expect the worst quarter since the financial crisis. this is bloomberg. ♪

yousef: economics, finance, and politics. i'm yousef gamal el-din in dubai. let's get to a top item on the agenda, the u.s. bank earnings

developments, because they are expected to be the worst this quarter since the financial crisis. the results were given more of an indication of how coronavirus has affected the industry. more with bloomberg's dani burger. surging loan-loss provisions were a big thing in the first quarter. are we going to get more of the same? dani: we are and loan-loss provisions are expected to be higher than in the first. banks hadter o coronavirus baked into earnings but having gone through three months of the pandemic, they should have a clear picture of the funds they need to set aside for souring loans and it will behind especially in consumer division, with crippling unemployment. it means a lot of customers are unable to pay back debt, not to mention unlikely to take cap new debt so interest income will be particularly week for banks the consumer divisions has been a

cornerstone for earnings of lockdown measures. all told,ds fees and we are expecting the highest sum of loan-loss provisions since the financial crisis. yousef: there are some silver linings here, in terms of pockets of growth and activity these banks can fall back on and that relates to trading revenue, doesn't it? trading, muchting like the first quarter. they should help thanks again. it will probably be concentrated in the beginning of the second quarter when we have volatility, heightened volumes, which has started to trail off as the quarter continued and moved into the third, but that should be pretty strong. estimates are for 31% increase trading.and bond giants like jpmorgan, one of the biggest banks in this area, they expect a 50% increase, so that is pretty staggering. citigroup, their head of debt markets expect a record volume for the second quarter.

mortgages should be another bright spot considering how low interest rates have been. yousef: thank you very much. dani burger. still to come, we will be talking about restrictions easing in most countries as consumers return. we will be joined by the president of sw retail advisors to get the lowdown to how consumer behavior could have been permanently changed. more perspective from the market developments. this is bloomberg. ♪

yousef: economics, finance, politics. this bloomberg surveillance. let's get out to the first word

news with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: thanks. electoral commission says andrzej duda is set to win the country's presidential vote. the campaign had the highest turnout since the fall of communism. international election auditors blocked a pro due to a group to public television. with almost all the results now 52% of the vote with the opposition candidate taking just less than 49%. florida has broken the daily record for all u.s. states with more than 15,000 new coronavirus cases. new york city reporting no new confirmed barbarous related deaths for the first time in more than four months. in hong kong -- new confirmed virus related deaths for the first time and within four months. south africa introduced a curfew and alcohol band as virus rules were flouted.

only a quarter of business leaders say their organizations are fully ready for the end of the brexit transition period. nearly half of the u.k. company -- companies pulled last month said they were not able to prepare for a transition now, with many saying they need more clarity. the survey by the institute filed said that financial sector where the most prepared while i defectors had the most to still to do. -- the most prepared while manufacturers had the most still to do. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. thanks very much for that. let's talk about retail is lockton measures ease. business owners are awaiting a rebound. across 26 countries showed financial insecurity is a

deep concern for consumers everywhere, with around half of respondents saying they are cutting back on nonessential expenditures. joining us now is the president of s w retail advisors. let's get straight to elation around when going to get his rebound in consumer confidence and a pickup in retail sales. are you seeing evidence of that yet? seeing a slow improvement week over week. they are really still talking about the transition to online, which for some of them doubled or tripled total exposure. power, soving staying they need to completely rethink their business models, and also as you probably have seen, there are restrictions of how many people can be in stores at a time, so there are these artificial lines that people are getting frustrated with. so the shift online is here to stay.

bloomberg intelligence put together a valuation matrix that gets reflected in a graphic that we have prepared for our viewers as well. the pain of european retailers -- 26% downward correction of valuation, gross expectations likely to be revised further and may be the recognition of some .f these overvalued p/e ratios what you say needs to be done by whether newies to era that we have? can you give us specific examples? i think in general -- you are theing at if you look at malls in the u.s., that really need to shrink here, i think some of the things that -- some of the successful retailers, what they have been able to do is to pivot overnight and start to see curbside pickup, start to

do virtual appointments, start to do appointment only in-store, and focus on that customer that is your most profitable customer and go after that. so it is like the 80/20 rule. chased down the 20% of your customers that are responsible for your revenue. underestimate the young consumers. they care about -- they care about all these things come about socially responsible clothes. so i think that becomes a huge focus again. in your research come you make the point at the luxury retailers are the ones who are least prepared for what is to come. what could a new paradigm look like, and does it or does it not involve amazon? if anything, luxury retailers have been underrepresented on that platform. stacey: i have written about the

new bifurcation of retailers in that grants are going direct because of the wholesale channel of the department store face spiraling downhill, and a lot of them are just not ordering anymore. you have that and you have online, and i think amazon, a lot the brands will be forced to go on amazon, which previously they said you could never do that. with amazon, the new wholesale channel, i throw in luxury, which is underpenetrated online, and it is going to need partners to help them get where they need use team on well with luxury civilians. and amazon is doing this and kind of model, so i think luxury needs the most assistance. they are the most kind and they use the big partners rather than the wholesale channel to get where they need to be. face ofwhat is the

conspicuous consumption in the months to come as we try and understand the full impact of the coronavirus? how are perceptions of luxury perhaps shifting come and how does retail need to keep up with that? stacey: when i am out in stores, i see luxury on a relative basis very much alive. ton sale was uber 20 people long waiting, and there is still a huge appetite for that. it will definitely be smaller until we find a solution to the pandemic and a solution to making people feel comfortable in stores because again, as you said, the penetration for luxury online is so small. it is dependent on the high touch, in person sales model. again, the virtual selling model will become a bigger part of it. i think luxury will recover first, and china has bounced back very healthy, but again, china's exposure online is so

much greater than in the u.s. or europe, but i think that will be the first about that. yousef: really enjoyed our conversation, lots of insight there. of s wwidlitz, president retail advisors. let's talk about disney. they have reopened parks in florida, and despite the state hitting another record daily new virus case. the magic kingdom and animal kingdom were open on saturday. epcot and hollywood studios are set to reopen wednesday. why are they choosing to reopen now? >> guests right here today in the magic kingdom, there is a lot of trust. people trust that we are going to open up in a responsible way. .ur cast are also trusting us i think we have done a really nice job of that. we have been down for four months. we are one of the first theme parks to close here in orlando,

and we will be the last open. we spent a lot of time programming this was parents. -- programming this experience. cases of deaths hitting highs, and people who are in hospitals. people are asking, why reopen now? our new normal. this is the world that we now live in. havesaid earlier, we created a really flexible operating environment here. we have new safety protocols in place, everything from people wearing face masks like i am today, the temperature checks, to social distancing, the new cleanliness standards. and even a reservation system. if you want to show up today to the magic kingdom, there is a reservation system in place so

we can control the number of guests in our theme parks. this is the new world we are operating in, and we feel like we have a way to operate. seeing someeen photos circulating on social media, one particularly at the line at the seven dwarfs train, people not social dissipating. that's not social distancing. a responsibility for both our guests and in our operating environment. as we continue to open up, we are adjusting and modifying where we can most modify. but i say in general, if you were to walk down main street today or go to a merchandise shop, you will see a very different experience than you ever had before. in dubai,have parks hong kong. why isn't anything open in those parts? >> our protocols are so detail, everything 100% compliant,

compliant with government guidance. we speak with medical officials all the time both from a national perspective and within a specific market we are operating in. we even have our internal medical staff on the disney staff here. so we are making sure that we are in complete compliance with all the protocols and we are confident about that. >> you have epcot center, hollywood studios, paris ready to open next week. what is the plan for california? >> in california the government has not issued guidelines for the par 3 openings. park-- for theme reopening. as soon the marketplace is ready will, but we don't have a date at this time. of disney'schairman

theme park business, josh tomorrow -- josh tomorrow. cryingllenges campaign regularity. get all the details next. this is bloomberg. ♪

yousef: "bloomberg surveillance "bloomberg surveillance you are watching." -- you are watching " "bloomberg surveillance. leigh-ann gerrans has the bloomberg business flash.

: mostly thousands of that thousands of mostly female workers could be seen getting better wages. less workers in warehouses, who are mostly male. the cost of the sector could be as much as 8 billion pounds. the hourly pay is the same for male and female workers. -- as this is the hourly pay is the same for of male and female workers. justdent trump dictate strong action against tictoc and we chat. he told fox news administration is starting to work with the two apps and will not rule out banning them. selling out tictoc to an american buyer would not be enough to solve the problem. tesla has shaped $3000 off the thee of the crossover in u.s., four months after sales began.

the reduction follows similar moves for tesla's other models, sxre is sex and 3 -- their and 3. tesla has delivered 90,000 cars in the second quarter, beating analyst forecast. thank you for that run-up. let's get to poland, and andrzej duda, where he looks set to win a highly charged election. the incumbent is leading his mayor.the warsaw but he earlier declared victory and claimed there were large-scale electoral irregularities. >> all the votes just need to be counted, which in truth will make this evening a nerve-racking one for everyone in poland. but i am absolutely convinced, when we count each vote, we will be victorious, and we will

definitely win. us is petering boris, the head of the warsaw office of the european council of warsaw relations. give us a sense as to what the coming hours could look like and what appears to be the making of a legislative questioning of the process. peter: i think at the moment it is clear that duda has won the gained 52% ofhe the votes, and i think nothing will change this outcome. but of course there were some irregularities, and i think there were two major problems with this election. the incumbentat president under duda was supported by the state, by the those of his by own party, but the state

institutions come in a way which is not in line with the air electoral code. the second problem is that there were some problems with voting. we had 500,000 voters who wanted to cast their votes in different countries, and some of them did balance on time. there were some other problems with qs and so forth. so certainly there will be electoral protests, i don't think they will be successful. reason that they --bably do not amount to that would completely change the electoral result, but also the supreme court, which will eventually -- few -- allowve a me to get through some core

points here. where five years into a nationalist makeover with the incumbent government. if this voteg that is confirmed, you would have poland out of e.u. mainstream, out of the e.u. mainstream for years to come. is that something you can get on board with? piotr: i think poland has been already out of the e.u. mainstream for quite some time, for the past five years under the rule of law and justice party, poland has witnessed a collapse of the rule of law system with some absolutely unconstitutional moves supported by president duda. is thatink -- my worry it will continue, that the judiciary reform, which has started, which started already a couple of years ago and has

become the means would go -- the main bone of contention, that it is not yet completed and there will be further plans with intense ideas and moves to curb the dependence of the courts. there will be also i think an attempt to clamp down on these -- this part of the independent area, especially those who at the moment owned by foreign companies. attempts tother review the space of freedom in the country. party leader of the ruling camp, he many years ago to -- it he would like think that will make steps into this direction.

yousef: the polish -- has been remarkably resilient over the last five trading sessions. piotr buras, head avenue the warsaw portion of the european council relations. coming up, opec-plus readies its next move to avoid an oil taper transfer. we will bring you those details next. this is bloomberg. ♪

yousef: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm yousef gamal el-din in dubai. here are some of the highlights as we count down to those events. today, later on, we are going to be seeing the governor of the bank of england, andrew bailey, speaking on a webinar entitled libor: entering the endgame. he will be joined by fed president john williams as well. the panel will be monitored rated by francie look -- will be moderated by francine lacqua. forhave the u.k.'s office budget responsibility.

they are going to publish three economic scenarios on the impact of the pandemic, and that comes as monthly gdp and industrial as well as manufacturing data comes out as well for the full perspective. on wednesday the bank of japan weighs in, and they publish their monetary policy decision. on thursday, bear with me, we get the ecb rate decision as well, and he gives you a sense of how packed this week is. friday, the leaders of the 27 year relations will meet in brussels. they will hash out the details of the stimulus package. a rally underway in industrial metals, but also oil is front and center, heading lower today ahead of wednesday's opec-plus me, which could see the group announced plans to start tapering historic production cuts, as the coronavirus continues to surge in many parts of the world. joining us now is annmarie hordern. it is on the table at this meeting? annmarie: deciding whether or

not to keep 9.6 million barrels a day off the market or allow some of the supplies to come back on as originally planned when they struck the historic deal. this was supposed to happen after june. they decided to extend them. that would taper the cuts of boosting production to around 7.7 million barrels per day. they see demand recovery gains contraction. some sources are leading toward that tapering. also we had shipping schedules already set for august, so when he or saying that so many are saying it is more or less -- so many are saying it is more or less locked-in. of course the worry is that if they start to taper and the market is still too fragile. we see concerns about pockets of resurgence of coronavirus cases around the world. whether or not you look at what is happening in florida or hong kong or tokyo. the worry is that if they do this too soon, what does it mean

for the price and could we potentially see a crash again? yousef: thank you very much for that. i also want to take you back to the wider market action, because we have the ongoing cautious optimism. it is quite a bit risk-on as we see it getting reflected in the european stocks story, but also in terms of the u.s. equity futures. docket, earnings on the banks including jp morgan, citigroup, bank of america reporting results. to get us a better picture and a better understanding of the tentacles of this covid pandemic into these balance sheets. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: this morning, stocks advance. also, march bottoms, amazon

shares leading the way, up 90%. the dow only 11% low it's valentine's day peak. will therewell, what be of earnings when they are reported? the banks go first. florida leads the nation in cases with a rising death toll. this as the secretary says open the schools. maybe not.osz says finally the president wears a face mask. the british will wear masks in stores and in a week or two. in china, moments ago, senators rubio and cruz, also smith and brownback, over human rights in western china. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." tom keene in new york, guy johnson in for francine lacqua in london. i was taken aback by the debate