shares leading the way, up 90%. the dow only 11% low it's valentine's day peak. will therewell, what be of earnings when they are reported? the banks go first. florida leads the nation in cases with a rising death toll. this as the secretary says open the schools. maybe not.osz says finally the president wears a face mask. the british will wear masks in stores and in a week or two. in china, moments ago, senators rubio and cruz, also smith and brownback, over human rights in western china. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." tom keene in new york, guy johnson in for francine lacqua in london. i was taken aback by the debate in london with masks.

i believe we are wrangling about waiting a week or two to do it. dialogue, itest seems, in the united kingdom. british way ofry approaching things, isn't it, tom, trying to do with all .ventualities finally you come to a decision and you are concerned if it is the correct one. it is the correct one at this point in time. we are watching with great hasrest how the debate become so politicized. we are scratching our heads, trying to figure out whether it is the right thing to do, but it is not politicized the same way as in the states. you mentioned in the headlines, the president finally wearing a mask to walter reed. that is may be a big step in the right direction. one angles certainly

there. us with an will join update, leading the way, the effect on the economy and of course across the different markets. with news in new york city, here is ritika gupta. ritika: good morning. 15,300 newed record coronavirus cases in florida, the biggest one-day rise since the outbreak in the u.s. the number of deaths fell by more than half from the day before. the decline in florida set by rate of positive tests. there is a warning, the hospitals in the miami area are approaching capacity. china is imposing sanctions against marco rubio and ted cruz , over legislation intended to punish beijing for treatment of ethnic minorities in the country's far west. several other u.s. officials were also named. the u.s. censured a top member of china's ruling communist

party and three other officials over alleged human rights abuses. me in hong kong, residents sent a signal of continued opposition to beijing. more than a half-million million people defied government warnings to vote in an unofficial primary. the today vote was aimed at narrowing down potential candidates for hong kong's legislative council. with poll shows joe biden a five-point lead over president trump in texas. he holds a 46-41 lead over registered voters. his handling over the coronavirus pandemic may have influence results. say theyose called disapprove of his performance. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i'm ritika:ntries, up death. this is bloomberg. -- i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. tom: equities, bonds, currencies, commodities.

a lift in the equities markets. the vix turning goes the other way. that is not unusual on a monday morning. 27.92 on the vix. the first thing i looked at when i came in to 731 lexington this morning, the yield markets, the two year yield -- 10 year yield from a .66 into .3. i would also note gold up $12. what do you have, guy? the curve flattening for the banks. we will talk about that this week. european stocks higher this morning. we got a positive legacy out of asia. csi 300 up once again, 2.1%. we await chinese gdp this week. you mentioned euro-dollar, we are waiting for the ecb thursday and the capital meeting friday. i would highlight copper again,

at 1.85%. keep an eye on what is happening in that space ahead of the chinese gdp. i have to mention tesla as well, with copper, up again despite the model white cuts. maybe we will talk about that later on. a massive, massive week coming up for central banks. we are waiting to see what happens this week from the ecb and the boj. to a certain extent, i think it is a bit of a nonevent, but the bank of england's andrew bailey speaking at a webinar entitled "libor: entering the endgame also fed president john williams on that panel as well. francine lacqua is going to moderate that. tomorrow we get the ecb publishing, bank lending survey, the ob are on the budget responsibility. three different responsibilities r on the pandemic.

keep an eye on the data this week. wednesday, boj publishing its monthly policy decision, monetary policy decision. thursday the ecb is out, so we get the lagarde point of view. marking time this week, and i think friday, the main event of the week, 47 e.u. nations gathering with their leaders in brussels to hash out the details of the 750 billion euro economic package. it is absolutely critical that this gets done at some point. it might not get done this week, but it needs to get done at some point. morning, valentin marinov. going into the friday council meeting, are you expecting a deal to get done? what impact will it have on the currency? goodtin: there is a chance the deal will be done

already this week, and overall, the indication with the euro group last week from the leaders meetings in particular, , and ther merkel upcoming meeting this week will be scrutinized for more indications of the compromise that could be reached. failif the heads of state to reach a compromise, the approach in the markets, a compromise will come, should come in the coming weeks. essentially by the end of december. in terms of market price action, that will continue to make the europe -- investors using any opportunity to jump on that euro bandwagon. tom: how would you play euro right now? one of the great mysteries, and i saw this last week, the

mystery over the major payers. how do you express a bet on euro into the autumn and for that matter into 2021? valentin: at the moment we have a euro-dollar long in our portfolio, and we are targeting 120,e closer to potentially higher down the road. predominantly the euro still looks cheap -- 1.20, intentionally hired on the road. predominantly the euro still looks cheap. and the euro-dollar is the drive toward diversification away from the dollar. that we are seeing not necessarily in euro-dollar on this, but other dollar crosses. as the u.s. is trying to deal with it second wave of covid-19, the rest of the world is catching up. there is a sense that risk assets in europe, fixed income assets in europe are going to be more attractive than their counterparts in the u.s.

so that is diversification away from the u.s. into europe, encouraging purchase of the euro-dollar as well. tom: when i hear that, it is so important, the idea of moving big figures. the fx market is so quiet. we are stuck at 1.07 since time began on yen. really extraordinary. i really think it is important, what he said about flows. thinking about the sanctions we have heard announced this morning regarding senator rubio and others come and you think about how the chinese are going to be playing what is going on here. they clearly see a fracturing of the global system. they need their currency to become a more freely available way of exchange. they are probably looking at the euro as well. as dollar assets get withdrawn, they flow back into the euro by the chinese.

there is a tectonic shift in the foreign exchange market, really important right now. i don't know where it goes, so maybe valentin is right. i think we want to pay attention to the bigger picture background shifts that are taking place here at the moment. valentin, let's pick up on that a little bit. you talk about the weight of the world changing. talk to me about how i should perceive the dollar going forward. the chinese need to protect their currency. they needed to be useful on a global basis. is that positive as well for the euro? the dollar side, what we are seeing from the imf is a structural downtrend in the dollar falling across all central banks. we have recently -- march is the lowest level in terms of dollars 2011, it was the second lowest since 1996.

these are interesting times, and looking at the flow, it is the case that we do see diversification away from the dollar, but as you also said, in terms of diversification into point, they, case in chinese, it was encouraging last week that with the dollar cnh collapse that we saw, very sharp moves coincided with a very sharp outperform of chinese stocks. looking back at the euro, the latest ecb balance with data, there is tangible evidence that was taking place, the less investors become buyers of domestic. my point being that the rest of the world has been very invested in the u.s. for the last five years. most of those investors were based in europe.

assets,e domestic looking at it as before, political risks and all that. guy: stick around. we need to carry on the conversation. valentin marinov will stay with us. nader on, and exclusive -- later on, a discussion with the outgoing euro group president. that conversation with alix steel and myself at 11:30 a.m. new york time, 4:30 p.m. london time. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: bloomberg surveillance, good morning, everyone. distancing in london. i am back in the studios, wonderful to be back here at 7, 31. i really cannot say, not only the group effort by bloomberg lp , but also guy johnson, team surveillance has done a fabulous job here. my bowtie was due sanitized, and .t really worked out on day one back, it has been 122 days for me, folks, to get back here at 7:30. right now, 120 two good ideas 122 valentin marinov, -- good ideas from valentin marinov. how do you readjust your strategy with the reality of the bond markets, central bank induced, which is negative real rates like we have never seen before? how does the chronic and

persistent negative real rates change g10 fx analysis? seen quite ahave lot of convergence in those rates, clearly, in recent months, and certainly the rate differentials, real rate threats are playing kind of a diminished .ole compared to before if you think of a valuation framework, it is all about appeal of a safe haven. real yield, it is now all gone. i guess the biggest loser of that convergence in those real rates, real yield, has been indeed the dollar. the second fact, you mentioned early on, the slope of the curve has been playing an increasing role, but investors are now looking at box spreads, comparing the growth in the yield curve and trying to pay straight from that. tom: the world has turned upside down. we are going to get a monday

brief later as we go into the week on being bank -- big bank earnings. when everything is said and done, the world is turned upside down. there does fx play into this? ,as it just become a boring dampened game, or can it actually be speculative where someone can find alpha? clearly, i mean, the moves have been pronounced, and i agree completely with your remark on implied volatility. we did rally immediately after covid-19, but now we are back with a more normal level. i guess without rate differentials, it may be difficult to find any natural outlook in those, but i think following the flows, following the logic of diversification away from the dollar, and indeed following other factors, obviously the health situation in different countries has

become much more of a prominent driver of currency of late. all of that certainly could help to generate some excess return. it will not be a thing that certainly we are highlighting again. the euro seems to be the most sensitive, with changes in the stringent of the lockdown. beenthe government has using, and you could see that in britain, the euro has become the most sensitive, also adding convictions to the idea that as europe emerges from the lockdown, europe could extract from that the most tangible gains across the board. as tom mentioned, we are going into earnings season. by many metrics, or tech, stocks are showing punchy multiples. therefore there is the danger that this earnings season produces a down drop in stocks.

if we see stocks moving lower, is the nature reaction to buy the dollar? valentin: i mean, the dollar is still the old safe haven. that is the legacy from the dollar's current situation from march and april, where everything was being sold so people could get their hands on dollar cash. upward correlation has been there supporting the dollar. i think, however, that more recently things have started to change, and ultimately started to weaken that correlation. and that is something that is really more dovish rhetoric, through a number of speakers. incould also see this week negative, where sentiment could support the dollar, according to which that could be a positive for the currency, given that also makes the fed more likely to respond, reach the negative shock before

long. even there, even during risk from the going away dollar, and the japanese yen, even the euro. guy: would you fight gold right now? at 1800.trong we have cpi data out this week. you think cpi data could alter the market perception of gold? a matter of fact, we have been long on gold for some time. that was her best trade asset last year -- that was our best trade asset this year. in an environment where each and every central bank is trying to outdo the rest by sounding more dovish, the only asset in limited supply is gold. so this kind of appeal certainly is going to i think carry gold to break the heights against the dollar gains, other currencies.

, anerms of the role of gold inflation hedge, that is another interesting consideration. looking at inflation expectations and all that, the return of inflation is -- from that point of view, i think the primary drive really for the gold strength is the currency debate. that is the concern, that central banks will continue, implementing more measures that are inherently negative. infusing dollar versus gold is the penetrative the moment given the comments that the u.s. is experiencing at the moment. tom: very valuable. valentin marinov, thank you very much. a terrific brief on a monday morning. we will be doing this throughout the day on all the different markets, which are currently with a focus on equities. christopher grisanti will join us. my am looking forward to

speaking with chris grisanti about apple and the value stocks and the tech stocks, value stocks if you buy that story. of then, binky chadha deutsche bank. always must-watch. he is wonderful on the volatilities within the market. please stay with us. guy johnson in london, i'm tom keene in new york. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: "bloomberg surveillance."

good morning, everyone. guy johnson in london, i'm tom keene in new york. dell futures up 96. i'm watching yields very carefully. the two-year .1449%. 13, throughs up recent record highs, 1814. we are really not too close to that time of 2011. dollar, a churn this morning for the dollar. later today, david rubenstein with the leadership of walmart. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ it's pretty inspiring the way families

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office in new york. that's coming up it on the first word news with ritika gupta. ritika: it is a milestone for new york city, the one-time epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in the u.s. reported no virus deaths yesterday, the first time it has happened since four months that happened in four months. there have been more than 18,000 confirmed coronavirus deaths in the city. the focus has shifted to the sunbelt. florida reported more than 15,000 new cases, the biggest u.s..y total in the top universities are backing harvard and m.i.t. in its over student visas. harvard and m.i.t. are trying to stop the government from enforcing new guidelines that would bar international students from entering and staying in the country. prime minister boris johnson government will campaign to urge businesses to prepare for the end of the brexit transition period on december 31.

of survey shows only a quarter of directors say their firms are ready. the government says they will spend more money on border infrastructure. washington repeatedly will not use the name "redskins". this amid mounting pressure from its biggest sponsors to drop the name. a new name will be unveiled today, reported because of trademark issues. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. much.hanks so it has not moved oil. 39.77, just under the $40 level. brent crude, 42.58. oil has moved suddenly back to something on the edge of profitability for those who product.he

annmarie hordern is watching this very closely, particularly the announcement this weekend of adjustments or hopes and dreams within opec+. anne-marie, what is the backstory here? who has the power over opec+? annmarie: good morning. the power lies within saudi arabia representing the opec side. and on the friends and family side is russia. they will be talking about whether or not they will keep the 9.6 output deal off the market for another month, or what the deal called for after june, if they decide to extend it, is to start tapering back those cuts. that means increasing production. we have on .7 million barrels a day. they of us who want to potentially make up some revenues, but there is risk to this. the worry is that if they decide to taper -- they have been

talking about it -- they start to use the metaphor, considering themselves the central bank of crude -- is the market to fragile for that at the moment? what we are seeing is the resurgence of coronavirus and what it means for demand. inventories.record we have lots of crude in storage. why on earth do we need more of it? annmarie: it's a really good question. texas data today shows that inventories are 200% higher than a year ago. they are still fighting an uphill battle with all the inventory they built up. a billion barrels, a mountain of it. a stabilized price range where they see these green shoots, and possibly it is a moment they can take to increase reduction of it.

already -- increase production of it. already, it was supposed to happen. this would be possibly one moment when it could potentially happen. the iea had a mixed report on friday saying that we are seeing pickup, but there is this casting of a shadow on the outlook about the disturbing reminder of the pandemic. one thing to keep in mind that will certainly be clear in the meeting, is that the prince is certainly going to insist that cheaters --e the iraq, nigeria, kazakhstan and angola, he will make sure those proposition cuts continue. guy: chinese gdp is out this week. how important is chinese data to get a gauge of what is happening with demand? chinese have been restocking and fueling their tanks.

if we continue to see chinese economic growth, is that a cue for opec+ to be more aggressive in terms of production? annmarie: asia has led the charge in terms of coming back on demand. many people were surprised how quickly china had come back to pre-coronavirus levels in terms of demand. where we are seeing demand right now, 5 million barrels off a two 100 million barrels a day. asia is important. china is in a good place right now. the worry is in crude futures in u.s. and europe, that is where we see contango. it basically projects that the market in these areas hasn't fully tightened yet. tom: i look at 2020 or opec+ 2020. i am certain it is not 1986, and you know better than me the

other days along the way. are they really opec anymore. , or is the market so die fuse and the production -- so diffuse ? annmarie: many people have written the obituary for opec and it hasn't ever happened. you could see them move opec is making in its historic deal helps the market, but it is more complicated in 2020. you have the u.s., brazil, canada, all major producers. when opec starts to make the argument is that you are just making room for other producers. they have a control over the market, but it is probably not as big as they had in the past. certainly there are other producers they need to watch out for. tom: annmarie hordern, with a nice report.

edward morse of citigroup just reporting moments ago, mix it very clear that this is about and much lesse about public good and public service. speaking of public service, he has been a public good for his united kingdom and for the global their logical community, steven riley is absolutely definitive in imperial college, on the migration of bacteria and viruses. the early the best in the world on infectious disease dynamics. that will be next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: "bloomberg surveillance." she has an important conversation with the gentleman from the bank of england, and the gentleman from the federal reserve system from new york. that will be something this morning. guy johnson. conversation of the day on this horrific pandemic. steven riley of imperial college london is absolutely definitive on how this virus moves from big, ugly, urban areas out to rural areas. he is with us today on the linkage between cases and deaths. know it isiley, i not a simple relationship. cases grow and that he could figure out where the deaths will be on the path. are we any smarter in that linkage from march?

steven: i think that we are. and i think that we can make, if you look at the current epidemic curve in the u.s., we can make the same points we were making in march. the deaths we are seeing come through now are from infections and cases to-three weeks ago. that's a very different time with the pandemic. it has been growing rapidly. what we are going to expect is that the deaths of 2-3 weeks from now will be substantially higher and will reflect that very recent growth in cases. i think we do know that relationship, tom. tom: you are the best in the world, in this question there are high density urban areas delhi in york, like dead india, and tokyo. what changes when the virus goes texas,e hinterlands to

what happens when a virus goes rural? steven: i think that when the virus comes in two different populations, we see the population responded differently. people in world, the those cities, example, new york and london, have adhered to pretty strong lockdowns and they have managed -- their behavior has managed to reduce transmission really quickly. what we are seeing at the moment is we are seeing that people in the southern states have chosen not to change their behavior in the same way the people in the cities did choose to change their behavior. that seems to be the main factor leading to the growth in cases in those less densely populated places, it is the way people are responding to the virus. guy: professor riley, it is

pretty hot in texas right now, and pretty hot in florida. people are eating and drinking inside. what lessons can we learn about what is happening in those states that we can apply to when it gets cold in the northeastern u.s., and here in europe? will it be possible to eat and drink indoors? steven: i think that is a really good question. all the evidence we have says it will be easier for the virus to transmit once we are spending more time indoors, that could be a factor in the southern states at the moment. i think what we have to see is exactly what level of transmission we are at when people do start to spend more indoors. people have to wear masks so we get a good look at whether they do make a bit of a difference, then we will have choices to make. we will figure out pretty quickly how much the indoor

behavior is continuing to transmission when it starts to occur in places like the u.k. then we will have to prioritize activity. we will have to look at bars and restaurants versus schools and other key activity that takes place indoors, we will have to prioritize, i think. guy: what do we need to do, from an environmental point of view? is there a way of replicating outside-inside? is it about ventilation, about uv? as you say, this will be applicable both in terms of bars and restaurants, but also critically at schools. steven: all of those. we know what helps. we know that more ventilation is better. i am not sure on the evidence of view o -- of uv. more ventilation is definitely better, but we will have to do a figure out to

what the safest ways are to be indoors, and how we can constantly improve. i think keeping an eye on it, generating really good data, and constantly improving the level of security indoors is what we will have to do. tom: professor riley, megan is my floor manager this morning. she wants me with my mask on. i am back in the office and they have great protocol here, but i am not wearing my mask because it fogs up my glasses. professor riley, seriously -- i am making a joke of this tragedy -- but how critical is it in a contained tv studio the callista have my mask on. megan wants to know, now. steven: like everybody else, i am adapting my habits to both the way people feel around me and scientific evidence. indoors, i am trying to wear a time.ll the

that is not going to hurt, and it is definitely going to hop to some degree. i think it is all just a clear sign. we have to make a sign to each other that we take it seriously. so i am wearing a mask whenever i can indoors and with people who are not in my immediate family. tom: megan makes clear she is decidedly not inside my bubble. i am getting used to the mask. we hope the president of the united states is as well. riley, what is the symbolism the president trump can wear a mask in walter reed, if he were to do it more repetitively? what is your view on the urgency that leaders show when they are wearing masks? steven: i thought president trump looked very strong walking around the hospital with a mask on. i thought he showed very high levels of respect to the people within the environment he was in. that was the image, the sense i got from seeing those images on my tv. really appreciate your time

today, thank you very much indeed. professor riley of imperial college. coming up in the next hour, we carry on the conversation assessing what is happening in the markets. we half joshua sharfstein, johns vice dean of public health and community engagement at the bloomberg school of public health, to carry on conversation about how we handle this virus. that is coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: this is bloomberg. i am ritika gupta. let's get the bloomberg business flash. google has announced a fund to help speed up india's digital economy. the company will invest in india years.e next 5-7 investments will include affordable access and information for every indian in their own language, and leveraging technology for social good. a group of struggling american newspapers has been sold to an investment firm. no word on the sale price.

brigham capital management has said it is worth more than $300 million. the bill includes papers in charlotte, sacramento, and fort worth. a chinese biotech company plans shares.$2.1 billion of it will be used to fund drug research and market treatments in the u.s. and china. buyers in the share sale including amgen which holds a 20% stake in the company. and that is your bloomberg business flash. guy: disney has began reopening its flagship theme parks in florida, despite the state hitting yet another record in cases.ly virus magic kingdom and animal kingdom were open on saturday. the epcot in hollywood set to return.

august told us why he is choosing to reopen now. >> there is a lot of stress. people thought we were going to open up in a responsible way. also the theme park staff members, trusting us. i think we have been a really nice job of that. we have been down for four months. we were one of the first theme parks to close here in orlando and we will be the last to reopen. we spent a lot of time programming this. >> that said, you have cases and deaths in florida hitting record highs, people in hospitals who are not happy that you are reopening. the question a lot are asking is why? why now? normal.is our new this is the world that we now live in. as i said earlier, we have created a really flexible

operating environment here. we are in control. we have new safety protocols in place, everything from people wearing facemasks like i am today, to temperature checks, social distancing, even reservation system. if you want to show up today, you have to -- there is a reservation system in place so we can control the number of guests. this is a new world we are in.ating >> now, we have been seeing photos circulating on social media. one in particular, the line at one of the trains, no social, people crowded together. environment we have created and controlling attendance, at the parks there is a responsibility from both our guests and our operating

environment. as we continue to open up, we are adjusting and modifying what modify.to in general, if you were to walk in main street today or look around the merchandise shop you will see very different experience. >> you have shanghai, hong kong, tokyo opened. have there been any cases of covid links to those parks? >> our protocols are so detailed . everything is 100% compliant with cdc guidelines, 100% compliant with government guidelines. we speak with medical officials all the time, both from a national perspective and within the specific market we're operating in. would even have our internal medical staff on the disney staff year. so we are making sure we are incomplete compliance with all protocol and really confident about that. >> you have epcot center and hollywood studios. paris is planning to open it next week. what is the plan for california at this point?

>> for california right now, the government has not issued a guideline for theme parks reopening. having the benefit of these theme parks around the world and operate,, wethey are very prepared so as soon as the marketplace is ready for us to open, we will be opening in disneyland. but we don't have a date at this .ime guy: that was the disney parks chairman, talking to bloomberg over the weekend as the parks reopened. a quick look at where we are. european equities higher this morning, now trading sideways. trading sideways with very light volume. t tohis becoming a anye are back again. me keep an eye on pope -- this is becoming a theme. chinese equities are back up again. tom: what a bounceback for copper, not back to record recent highs, but really

impressive to see copper make that bounceback. gold is up as well, up $12. the real story is this equity lift. i want to emphasize how "bloomberg surveillance" really tried to reset the equity marker. binky chadha will join us down the road. and i am really looking forward to christopher grisanti. this is really must-watch, must-listen, for all of you in the market.ue stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: this morning, stocks

advance. the s&p 500 up 40%. , with ahares explode up 3700 target. the dow, only 11% below its valentine's day peak. earnings will be reported this week. the banks go first. florida leads the nation' in cases and the death toll, this as secretary devos says, opened the schools. iroir says, not so fast. last, this just out in the two hours, sanctions on marco this on human rights in china. i am tom keene, and we have guy lacqua.in for francine francine w