>> the fact is we are likely facing a slower growth, sluggish economy out of this, and that is a great backdrop for secular growth. >> a lot of businesses are not buying into the v. they see a different destination. people who >> >> got the wrong impression from the data from may and june -- >> people got the wrong impression from the data from may and june. what happened is the economy really fell off a cliff, hit a trampoline and bounced. tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. thrilled you are with us this morning.

thisyou need to know on monday, futures advance through the hour. upures up 0.7%, dow futures 0.2%. what i find fascinating is the central-bank action no one is talking about. it is almost as if the central banks don't exist in july. jonathan: it is just assumed that they continue doing what they have been doing. the ecb coming up this thursday. the focus is on the variable policy move. that comes from the fiscal authorities in the united states over the next month and in europe. european leaders meeting going into the weekend. guest after guest lining up the hind a long europe view. that's going to get the test this weekend. tom: part of the test is going to be the bank earnings. lisa abramowicz, i guess we have a flat yield curve. i guess we've got a completely odd bond market. how does that benefits the banks? lisa: the answer is it does not.

the flattened yield curve is negative for the banks because you borrow short, lend long. you are nothing for it. on the other hand, the low rate regime has pushed corporations to borrow records amounts of money, and this has been a huge boon, which is one of the reasons people are expecting such a hit back. i have been looking at volumes for the year, and they are significantly higher than the previous all-time highs. another point of strength for the fixed trading revenues. someone who is really committed to "bloomberg surveillance" put out a blistering tweed on the president. i want to read it to you. this is from the acclaimed peter hotez of baylor. "the president of the united states retweeted this nonsense. he lacks interest

in slowing or halting the virus. the strategy is to continue deflecting, first china, then who, now the scientists themselves. we will need to seek a branch of government still willing or able to lead a federal response." this is a backdrop to all we talk about in economics, finance and investment. jonathan: let's be really clear about this. every single aspect of government worldwide deserves to be criticized for their response to this crisis. said travel curbs don't help. mayor bill de blasio in this city in march said get out on the town. that was what the mayor of new york city had to say to the people of new york. he is worthy of criticism as well. the government, the federal government, is also worthy of criticism as well.

what is important is learning from mistakes and learning from them quickly. what we need at the federal level is something a whole lot quicker, a whole lot earlier. we push it too far and went too soon and we went to quickly. tom: we will continue these interviews through the week, particularly our to them into the johns hopkins university. right now, you need a briefing this monday on the state of the markets. we do this with futures up 22, dow futures up 95. lee ferridge is with state street, head of microstrategy. if i want -- of macro strategy. if i want to participate in the equity markets, what is different now than any other had?s we have lee: i guess what is different is the sheer size of this policy response. we have never seen zero rates across the world. we have never seen the level of

qe we are getting now. in terms of monetary policy, that is the difference this time. previously, there would have still been an interest on cash or some sort of interest rate on bonds. we are not getting anything here. alternative. it is clearly winning out now, despite all the risks you highlighted in talk about. investors are just shrugging it off and saying, if this thing keeps going up, i am getting zero anywhere else. that's why i've got to be in it. jonathan: we just witnessed the biggest fiscal policy experie ment maybe in history -- experiment maybe in history. lee:lee: the response in the u.s. is dated. extra unemployment insurance runs out july 31. ppp loans start getting

converted to grants, which means people can be laid off in the next few weeks. so we are facing a potential fiscal cliff in the u.s. in c.a.r.e.s. act was huge terms of helping to mitigate the impact of the pandemic. competition levels fell by $140 billion in april. but what we saw was that government spending or government transfers went up by $3 trillion. $2.8 trillion of that was the c.a.r.e.s. act. we have seen consumers protected by these huge fiscal transfers. and we stillout have a very high employment rate. -- high unemployment rate. because of the surge in the virus, we are going backwards or pausing on the reopening, so a lot of people are still going to be out of work. if they start to lose this benefit, that's got to impact the economy in q3. jonathan: i catch up on the administration on a monthly basis. it is difficult to understand

whether the appreciate of heading eight -- appreciate the risk of hitting a demand air pocket this summer. lee: i don't think they do. i think they may have been lulled into a false sense of security. what we saw was this collapse in march and april. we have seen a bounce in may and june. but now when we go into q3, it is like, ok. where is the next impetus going to come from? 20 odd states are pausing or rolling back the reopening's. we've got this fiscal cliff, which is why q3 is going to be so challenging. in congress, they are probably looking at the data and going, we are over the worst. we can pare back the fiscal stimulus. but i think that would be a huge mistake. lisa: it seems like this is not unknown, and a lot of the administration has said they would like to see more stimulus, perhaps not an extension of the end benefits as such. yet, there is push for this.

what is your feeling in terms of what the downside risk is too stocks should they not extend the enhanced unemployment benefits? lee: it will take a wild come through. stocks can shrug off any sort of bad news. i've been completely surprised given what we are seeing on the virus numbers and what that's got to mean going forward. hard to say stocks will be better from now, but this wall of negative news has to make investors think about the risk-reward of stocks, particularly at these levels, particularly that are actually going up. it is a very narrow rally. if you look to an equally weighted s&p against the cap weighted index we always look at, the gap between the two in terms of your on near is about 12%. it is the widest since 1998. this is a very concentrated rally in if you stocks which

have become very richly valued. it is when that risk/reward tips over. does the lack of fiscal stimulus mean that tips over? maybe, and we get closer to the election and that becomes more of an issue as well. there are plenty of negatives out there, but so far, the market keeps ignoring it. i am certainly leaning on the bearish side, but it is hard in the face of the price action. lisa: you point to the fundament to economy, and it is negative as far as you can see. once you withdraw stimulus, there's an ipo -- there's a lot of negativity out there. people point not just to the stimulus, but also to the monetary policy, which has the promise of doing whatever it takes. why are you willing to fight against that to be bearish given the fact that you have officials on all sides of the world doubled down on this pledge? lee: it's a very good point.

i guess i am a bit old-school inasmuch as i don't believe you can create money out of nothing continuously without any sort of pull back on that. i think where the market looks at it come the best-performing asset this year in the last couple of years is gold. gold is your hedge against the continuous increase in central bank balance sheets. gold provides that hedge against the fiat currency. we can talk about stocks doing well, but is a small subgroup, and there are other assets such as gold doing better. so in the world we are income overall stocks are going to do better. but at some point you've got to start questioning whether the authorities can continue printing and keep supporting an underlying economy that would be collapsing without this support. jonathan: we don't need to see you. i can just the imagine -- i can

just imagine the exasperation. [laughter] great to catch up. let's think about it. downost covid, post shut high-yield credit. the peak of the yield curve, june 5. a couple of days later, the equity market peaked. i think we have to knowledge that the market has adjusted to the risk coming to the surface over the past month. lisa: certainly if you look away from tech, you see that. the question is whether we are going to get a wave of systematic bankruptcies that could perhaps shake the feeling that central-bank cash flood the market. really, there is this feeling on the higher-level quality stuff, the fed has got your back. jonathan: coming up on this nomura, lewis alexander, chief u.s. economist. a lot of economic data this week as we count you down to an

ecb decision and a meeting of the great european leaders. equity futures up 22 on the s&p after a two-week rally. we at a little bit of weight to it. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. it is a grim record for the state of florida. it reported a record of 15,003 hundred new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day rise since the outbreak began in the u.s.. the number of deaths fell by more than half on the day before, and there was a decline in fortis rate of positive tests. still, there's a warning -- decline in florida's rate of positive tests. still, there is a warning that mammy hospitals are near capacity -- might -- that miami hospitals are near capacity. senators marco rubio and ted

cruz sanctioned by china for legislation that would punish officials over alleged human rights abuses. and hong kong, residents sent a signal of continued opposition towards beijing. more than 500,000 defied warnings to participate in an unofficial primary. a poll showed that joe biden has a five-point lead over president trump in texas. lead holds a 46%-40 1% among registered voters. the president's handling of the pandemic may have influenced those results. and a big transaction in the semiconductor industry. analog devices has agreed to buy maxim integrated products. the deal has an equity value of $20.9 billion. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than

2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> if we see a face for deal -- deal, we will see

pushback there. jonathan: in your equity market this morning, good morning to you all. equities higher on the s&p as we kick off earnings season tomorrow and through the week, with the big financials and big tech in focus this morning. a series of upgrades helping to drive some of the big names this morning. futures up 0.7%. alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. that's where the focus is, the next steps from fiscal authorities. tom: no question about it, but also the monetary update. there is important decisions this week. there's a webinar with francine lacqua and the government are of the bank of england and president of the new york fed. michael mckee, our international economics an policy

correspondent. john williams will be with francine lacqua today. does any of this that you normally go out to jackson hole and pontificate on, does any of this matter? michael: not really. there's no potential growth to be measured at the moment, so the fed, like all central banks come are basically stuck at zero for the foreseeable future. which means even with the ecb and bank of japan meeting this week, don't expect any monetary policy moves. they are all about interest rates. interest rates are at zero. not much they can do. it is the fiscal authorities who matter right now. tom: what is so important is the idea of what will be the price for this. with all of your years of experience, what is the price out for the foreseeable future that we are all going to pay? michael: that is the hard thing to know.

there was always a theory that people would change their spending habits because they would expect texas to go up if there is a big budget deficit -- expect taxes to go up if there was a big budget deficit. so far it is because of the pandemic. we don't know how much crowding we get because of love the deficit spending, so it is a real-time experiment. a lot of people like to say it is mmt. it is not really, and the sense that we are not prepared to raise taxes to step in front of inflation as mmt would have you do. but it is a new world in which deficit spending has become the norm, and tremendous deficit spending. lisa: we know that the fed is going to remain on zero for the foreseeable future. some question about negative rates, although right now the fed is not interested in discussing it. they are not thinking about raising rates. there is a question of how much federal reserve officials will

backstop companies that are the closest to bankruptcy, that perhaps would otherwise go bankrupt had it not been for the pandemic. there's concern about zombie companies and the halting of the creative destruction process in the united states that has been a hallmark of this nation. michael: that is an interesting question because a lot of people are focused on this zombie company idea. the problem is measuring exactly who would be a zombie company and who might find traction otherwise. forfed's lending programs businesses have attracted less interest than people thought the main street program and the larger company lending programs of the treasury is administering. a lot of companies went to banks with interest rates so low. they managed to get loans or go into the bond market and refinance. we will have to see it as the economy continues and if it starts to grow, whether some of those companies give up the ghost. we have seen a lot of

bankruptcies announced in the last couple of months, so it may be that the zombie company theory doesn't hold. jonathan: the big question, how quickly these economies can reopen, especially in the place where they have dealt with the pandemic well. all publicill cap gatherings of more than four people because of this pandemic. they will ban dining service from 6 p.m. to 5:00 a.m. have --t underlying just underlining how difficult it will be to normalize any time soon. michael: we are definitely seeing that in the united states come up with the southern states bright red in terms of the statesin the virus, and that did not want to close down rollback the reopening's. that will have an effect on jobs. business employment

starting to turn down in those states. we are entering a kind of phase two of the economic recovery, and that is companies come back, they either have to close down again, or they start laying off workers again. tom: the hong kong news is really difficult. i love going to american pool what i am in hong kong. the arcades are really different from anywhere else in the world. michael mckee, furloughs and layoffs, give us an update. where are we? michael: we are starting to see a tremendous number. we saw over the past week that wells fargo announced a plan for thousands of jobs. united airlines, 36,000 jobs. harley davidson. an awful lot of layoffs and firings starting to be announced because demand is not returning at the same time as employees. this does not count all of the restaurants that tried to reopen in may don't have the business. people will be laid off. the small business people say

22% of their membership expects to fire workers even after they've reopened. tom: michael mckee, thank you so much. jon ferro, to me this is the mystery of the end of july. weekly jobless claims, the end of the july jobs report. what michael mckee just said to me, other than the pandemic, is the most emotional thing. is the net change in the headline number of the payrolls report, that has really surprised to the upside. .he real story is the churn the permanent layoffs have been building over the last couple of months. i don't like the idea of it, but i imagine that story will continue. tom: there's no question about it. with the laborl economy folding into what we see in the stock market, futures up

22 right now, and maybe more everany time i have seen it, it is two separate worlds. jonathan: we do not change on the headlines coming out of hong kong. we stayed elevated on the s&p by around 0.7%. if we can get to the bond market, some data to look out for in the week ahead. we will have cpi coming out tomorrow and retail sales in america coming this thursday. ahead of that, pretty muted price action. your tin you will yield -- your 10 year yield coming up a single basis point. in the fx market, huge focus on europe through the week. the ecb decision coming up this thursday, and then fiscal authorities. european leaders meet this friday and into the weekend. can they find agreement on the next steps? euro-dollar positive. we move higher on the euro. just a slightly weaker dollar. one hour away from the opening bell. lewis alexander, nomura chief

u.s. economist, joins us next. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ 49... 50!

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jonathan: there is a lift to this market this monday morning. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. one hour away from the opening bell. here is your price action. 500 we advance up 21 points. the financials railing into earnings. , cowen with the street high price target. up 3200. big tech doing nicely this morning. the financials firmer going turning season, giving futures a lift. tom: they be not what we saw an hour ago, but nevertheless up, it has a huge correlated risk. what we are doing on a monday is

resetting. we can do that with lewis alexander, who writes exceptionally thoughtful notes, all of this with his background of service to the nation as well. thank you for joining us today. i want to go to a single sentence buried in your report which is a single summary on the uncertainty of china, not just in the virus news out of hong , you're away from that exceptionally tepid call on the second half for china. can that derail global recovery? the concern about china is it is quite vulnerable with what is going on in the rest of the world. they were relatively successfully dealing with covid-19 and the problem is there recovery is constrained by what is going on in the rest of the world. in some ways i would draw the other direction. china cannot do more unless the

rest of the world recovers and export demand picks up. and that point that is the real constraint on china. tom: tell us about export demand. bloomberg has a wonderful world trade start. over the last decade it is grim. we are going away from what we knew in our childhoods. give us an update on the state of the wall you -- on the state of the volumes. lewis: we have a 25 year period when trade was going much more rapidly than global gdp. that stopped a while ago. to a certain extent we have been in a period where globalization has not been the same impetus to growth. with covid-19, everything has collapsed. that is a general function of activity around the world. the problem is the parts of the world that are more dependent on trade than any others, china is

at the head of it, has been in some sense constrained by where we will going going forward. one of the big questions after the u.s. election is what will happen with trade. you heard vice president biden last week talk about his buy america program. he did not talk about trade policy in great detail, but if you look across what he is saying, i do not think we should expect some big change, some big movement back towards a commitment to free trade that you saw under previous democratic administrations. while i am hopeful we will get a cyclical recovery as we recover from covid-19 over the next couple of years with vaccines and all of that, we are not going back to that period when globalization is driving the economy. lisa: ahead of the election we will also be getting a lot of unemployment figures. you are expecting the

unemployment rate back down near 10% by the end of this year, and yet some of the stock data shows an increasing weakening in any potential bounceback. how much does that play into a potentially higher unemployment rate in your view at the end of this year? lewis: i think there is certainly the risk of that and i would totally agree that high-frequency data is pointing towards a moderation and even a decline over the next coming weeks and months. but we note that the potential for lockdowns is regional, it is not national, it is very different from what we saw in march and april, and we think there will be continued recovery. we expected phase four deal within the next two weeks, and that will be important to continue this. i would note the fact that continuing claims for unemployment has continued to come down, even in an

environment where initial claims remain high. there's an awful lot of reallocation going on at this point. there is a huge amount of uncertainty about where the economy will be. i would note 10% is still the peak of where the unemployment is. we expect a trillion dollar physical add-on. lisa: i want to talk about the composition. a lot of people sing the enhanced unemployment and if it has the most direct effect on economic spending, on consumer outlooks. how important is the composition of the $1.5 trillion package you're expecting for your outlook to be correct? lewis: it is important. there are different pieces to it. you have to do something to make up the unemployment benefits that come off at the end of july. it is unlikely they will be

extended in exactly the same form as they are now, but you need something that replaces that. second, you need more small businesses, additional resources that go to support businesses directly. you need also money for state and local governments. all of the talk of potential layoffs and businesses, if we do not get more support for state and local, you will see the same thing in state and local governments. i think those three pieces have to be there for this to work. there has also been discussion of another round of tax rebates. to the sense that is general support, it is not a bad thing to do that. expand the unemployment benefits, more help for business , but all state and local governments. jonathan: you've gone through a series of issues. i wonder on what particular

issue you think the recession might come unstuck? about there are questions how you define the benefits and support for business. there has been very high replacement rates for the unemployment benefits. republicans want to change the structure. if they press the issue, that could become a stumbling block. there is also a question of what businesses will have access to support. there's been criticism of the ppp program. criticisms the democrats want to put on. there is also a liability issue that has been important to mcconnell about giving businesses liability protection if workers get covid for coming back to work. how you define that, those are all issues that strong advocates on one side of the other really want to press the issue, they can delay things.

i am hopeful that everybody recognizes how important this is and it will get done quickly, before the end of this month. that is our expectation. if we are wrong about that, that would be a big deal. tom: to go back to the giant of yale university, there was a book years ago, it always comes in and the slow down, "is growth obsolete?" away from the selected tech names, is growth obsolete? lewis: i think very much not . there is another old economist who stressed the importance of a gap between maximum employment and actual output and potential out book -- output as being a social loss. this is one of the times where that is important. we have an economy under producing. we have a lot of people unemployed. that is a huge cost, and

anything we can do to diminish that over are important. that is another way of thinking about that growth question. this is one of those moments when all of those things are important for us to address. jonathan: always great to get your perspective on this program. our best to you and yours and the team at nomura. lewis alexander there. the second stage is the more persistent extended period of time at low capacity. we caught up with bob prince a couple of weeks ago and he talked about a duration mitch match. -- a duration mismatch. band-aid -- will the collective will to do that be there into 2021? tom: different cultures are doing is better.

i think the united kingdom is doing it better with a more constrained economy. what is so important is the blunt instrument of percent of gdp, how much of this is washington help the percent of gdp, and the answer is they are late, they have to catch up. jonathan: you mentioned europe. the subtle differences of the --sical response, europe has broad-based furlough programs, keeping people much closer to their employers. we did it to some extent here in the united states, but not to the degree europe has done it. it makes me constructive about the future in europe. we have managed to get closer on the continent than we have in the united states. emphasis onush more the direct shock -- the problem with what the u.s. has done is in might have propped up consumption, but it expires months end.

programs in europe, the furlough in the u.k., they go through all the way into october. right now itlisa: seems like that is the ongoing prescription, the european approach does seem to have a more fitting circumstance given what we are facing. the united states is typically a culture of -- i want to come to this idea they are not backing -- to keep their employees and they are allowing things to break down and restart and that is being credited for one of the reasons for criticism of the u.s. economy. jonathan: are they going far enough or have they gone too far already? alongside lisa abramowicz with tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. 50 minutes away from the opening

belt in new york city with futures elevated, up 20 points on the s&p and change. we advance .6%. good morning. 200 on the s&p 500. this is bloomberg surveillance. ritika gupta with the first word news -- ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. hong kong is closing all jams and game arcades. public gatherings will be limited to no more than four people. a milestone for new york city. the one-time epicenter of the coronavirus reported no virus debts yesterday, that is the first time that has happened in four months. 18,000 confirmed coronavirus debts in the city. the focus on the u.s. is now the sun bout. florida reported more than 50,000 new cases, the biggest

one-day total in the u.s.. some universities are backing harvard and m.i.t. and their fight over student visas. harvard and m.i.t. are trying to stop the government from enforcing new guidelines that would ban some international students from entering countries. in the u.k., boris johnson's government will urge businesses to prepare for the end of brexit transition december 31. the survey shows only a quarter of director are saying there firms are ready. british authorities say they will spend $850 million on new border -- the alliance, led by saudi arabia and russia, is said to begin unwinding those unprecedented output cuts. a second wave of the pandemic threatened another --

global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. . am ritika gupta this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we fast forward to this week. i would say we have been on again.

jonathan: deutsche bank on earnings season. looking up to catching up with the pepsico ceo. as i step away to get you set up for the opening bell, that interview taking place in 40 minutes. tom: it will be interesting to see. risk gone as we go into the open. now, in an interview that was to be important but is now evermore important and what we are seeing between the scientists and the president of the united states. joining us is marta wosinka. could be with us to explain the economics of policy resistance. professor, thank you for being

with us today. we have a president going after the science within this pandemic. how the scientists defend themselves? what the scientists do is put out the fact and talk about to get us to be done out and have us get through this pandemic. facts when it the comes to getting kids back to school, one of the pivotal issues. president trump saying it is time and his health secretary cigna risks are overstated. are they? marta: the risks are not overstated but i agree it is important for kids to get back to school. the question is not necessarily if they should get back to school but how to do it safely. i would draw parallels to how we reopen. there are ways of reopening

safely in some places have shown it can be done, and their ways of reopening not so safely, and it is the same thing with schools. there are parts of the country where i think in person education could very much happen. think about new york, new jersey, delaware, and connecticut. on the other hand, i cannot ingine schools reopening person in florida and texas or arizona, or perhaps they could reopen but they would shut down quickly because there is so much viral spread in the community that he would have students and sick quickly. lisa: i am struck by the certainty. you say we know how to prevent the spread of the virus, yet when i look into how the virus is spread, there seems to be a lot of uncertainty, whether it is airborne or not.

of whethern non-symptomatically individuals transmit the virus, where are we at some of those basic ideas when it comes to the science? marta: we definitely do know asymptomatic transmission is critical and what makes the virus so deadly, because people are making decisions that do not account for the fact that they might be spreading the virus. disagreement as to whether it is airborne, but if we were to pursue -- we know being indoors increases the risk . circulation does matter. we know social distancing, physical distancing does matter as well, that it works. we know masks are very helpful. if you cannot properly distance from other people.

because so much of the spread is asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic, before people have symptoms, these kind of measures can make tremendous impact. tom: one thing i find fascinating is one day this will be over. do you think there will be a permanent change of health policy or do we just go back to what we were doing before? know: i would say i do not this will be over. there will always be a new normal. ano think this might become endemic condition. we might end up having to live with it. obviously not the level we live with it now, but it is possible it might be something we might need to get vaccinated for every year.

the vaccine might not be 100% effective, we might not have a vaccine like we have with measles, but a strong protective effect. , which our old normal was the mistaken reopening, how people thought about what it would look like, we might never have the old normal again, even if we have a vaccine and people are broadly vaccinated. tom: does our health policy become more european like? marta: that is hard to say, but i will say that with the level of unemployment we are seeing, i think there are going to be thetions asked about employer-based insurance system, where this will go it is hard to say, but there are going to be , even within our

existing system, how we might pay. fee-for-service has not worked well during the pandemic because visits have dropped. elective surgeries have dropped. providers that have been part of have doner models significantly better and have been in a much better position to withstand the shock. also beopeful this will a change that will happen. tom: thank you so much. greatly appreciated on health come out we tried to of this pandemic. ,e have much more coming up lots of good market action today. tesla has been mentioned by a number of our guests, including guy johnson early in the morning , dazzled by the performance of tesla. lisa: shares up 6.5% ahead of

the open, followed by 11% gain on friday. to give you some perspective, tesla shares are up 269% year to date, and there's the question is there a bubble in stocks, people ask that question. most say not at all. tesla is looking a little lookingus -- tesla is bubblishious. the shares are on a tear. tom: let me do a data check. i will look across equity spots. what is important is the vix has not moved. 27.61. pretty much unchanged. futures up 21. a little bit higher an hour ago. 196.utures up

yields show a little bit of the risk on feel. stay with us through the day. worldwide, this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: from new york city for

our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. we begin with the big issue. the president of the united states seen wearing a face mask publicly finally as coronavirus cases continue to pile up in america with several hotspots across the sunbelt reporting increasingly worrying stats, weighing on the outlook for the economy and the president's election prospects. the dallas university showing joe biden taking a five-point lead over the president among voters in texas. political uncertainties are merging with a stumbling economic recovery. according to bank of america "the economy has officially moved into the third of our of slowase framework healing out of the v-shaped transition. the healing phase will be determined by the path of the virus and the degree of fiscal and monetary stimulus." on the physical front,