we're committed to helping all families stay connected. learn more at xfinity.com/education. >> in ironman -- in an environment where unemployment is going up, there will be the specter of an employment coming down the tracks. be those who have to hunker down for a lower economy. >> many businesses are not buying into the v. they see a different destination regardless of the journey. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: we welcome all of you on bloomberg radio, bloomberg

television across this nation, around the world, particularly those of you from continental europe. lots to do in this hour. right now, lisa and i need a primer on how this is not another exercise in kicking the can down the road this weekend in europe. jonathan: it's got to get done. we got to see some progress. there's a pool of money. what will be grants? what will be loans? what are the strings attached? that is it. what do we wake up to in the business papers across the whole of europe? -- isurope united europe united were divided? it's really -- is europe united or divided? it is really not funny anymore. tom: how do you boil this down for our american listeners? they are like, we've seen this plenty of times. jonathan: if europe doesn't get

a hold of it this time, it will be another 10 years of crawling out of an economic hole in a suboptimal way. we will have crisis after crisis, political episode after political episode, and redenomination risk that dominates global markets. we do not want to see a repeat of that. we need some progress on the continent. tom: part of this is my reading this weekend, and i am behind on ig versus high-yield. we've got a massive debt yield nation.is we see new debt coming on. how fragile is high-yield? lisa: there's concerns that the likes of carnival and norwegian cruise lines are going to lose more money at a time when their whole industry has been thrown into existential angst. there's been more interesting high-yield at a time of states facing the underlying backdrop of fiscal support globally. the idea that all of these very real risks, whether it is the

european union not coming together on fiscal support, increasing tensions between the u.s. and china, and china and europe, whether it is the increasing byron scott's that are slowing growth -- increasing virus counts that are slowing growth, these are some of the results we've gotten out of riskier debt. tom: she can say existential angst and get rid of it -- and get away with it? if jon or i say that, we get a three-page memo. we will get right to it right now with a brief to get you ready for the weekend, and to stagger to q3. we can do that with brian levitt, who really filters in all sorts of getting. he is the global market strategist for invesco. what are you writing on into the end of july? question ibiggest keep being asked is about the shape of the recovery. i think there is so much concern about whether it is v-shaped, w

shaped, or u-shaped. the reality is i think it is going to be a prolonged, protracted recovery, intermittent fits and starts. if you look historically at different recoveries, you can look at the one from the early 2000, the more v-shaped. early 1980's, more w shaped area 2008, 2009, more u-shaped. the markets actually did best in that u-shaped. i'm expecting some volatility in protractedrm, but a u-shaped recovery can actually be just fine for the equity markets. jonathan: it is hard to believe i made a mistake in the data check i did up top. turning -- thehe has had we have seen, the vix down to 29.8.

that is not normal. jonathan: brian's point is that anemic recovery could be sufficient. for the recovery to be shallow doesn't mean that this market cannot rebound. is that the point you're trying to make here? brian: that is the point i am trying to make. we learned that coming out of the financial area investors largely bemoaned that weak recovery for a number of years, waiting things to start to look good, for jobless claims to get back to average, all of these different things. by the time that happened, the markets had already staged a pretty sizable advance. i think obviously, we are all monitoring mobility. we are monitoring reopening. i thing if those things turn, you will have volatility in markets. my point is if you are a longer-term investor, focus more on whether things are getting better or worse rather than good or bad, even if they are getting better modestly, slowly.

markets should do well. remember, it is going to be a very long time until we get back to full employment, until there is some pickup in inflation expectations, which would mean policy is likely to be accommodative well into the future. jonathan: we've had people lining up to get overweight europe versus the united states. is that the right idea? brian: the interesting thing about the non-us markets is it looks like we may be for the first time in a while in an environment where the dollar is stable or dare we say weaker. the aftermath of the financial crisis was strong dollar. the u.s. emerged from it in a better position, and it looked as if the federal reserve ultimately did raise rates for the rest of the world. now you are in environment where the u.s. is struggling to come out of it. the dollar is under some pressure as policy becomes very accommodative. that is likely to persist. what that enables you to do as a u.s. denominated investor is to

start to look to other parts of the world where evaluations are more attractive. i would say within all of that, when you are looking international, i would still favor the growthier parts of the market rather than looking for the more economically sensitive parts of the market that will wire a pretty significant -- that will require a pretty significant acceleration in economic activity. i would say for the growers, the companies on the cutting edge of structural changes in society, those are the types of names i would be allocating to outside the united states. lisa: this is such an important point, the idea of going to europe over the u.s. it has currently been what a lot of investors are saying, which is why the euro has been stronger versus the dollar since march. we have this meeting in brussels that looks tenuous in terms of them getting a deal done. what is the downside risk not only to the euro, but the entire european risk arc at -- risk

market should they fail to come to some kind of accord? brian: it is a great point. with any nascent recovery, if you don't get the policy mix right, that basic recovery is not going to persist for too long. much like in the united states how we have to get the policy mix right, not only monetary, fiscal and reopening, the same can be said for europe. perhaps a silver lining in all of this, if we can even find silver lining, is that this may lead us to more europe rather than less. that is what we have all largely been clamoring for for some time , the hamiltonian moment to the , thed states and europe joint fiscal union. . if europe doesn't get the policy mix right, it is likely we will see a lot of years that look like what we sign the aftermath of 2008. we are hopeful, and we will be

watching closely. jonathan: the unicorns, the rainbows, the lollipops, we all wanted to happen. i have been conditioned to be skeptical about it. what is going to make it change? this is not a political point. it is not about political bias. this is a point about politics. the politicians on the continent regardless of whether they are on the left or the right, they have disappointed again and again and europe. we have seen it on the far left in europe, on the far right in europe. when does it change? brian: we have seen disappointment, obviously less so from the european central bank, but more so from the elected officials. perhaps desperate times call for desperate measures. we will find out. let's wait and see what the days bring us. but i believe that what we have seen is incremental steps. it has been a very gradual move

more europe rather than less. to 2011, 2012back during the european debt crisis, there were concerns that the union is bringing up, that they would move away from the -- is breaking up, that they would move away from the common currency, and yet, here we are. let's hope the incremental steps continue to be favorable and this becomes something of a silver lining out of all of this. jonathan: great to catch up with you. my best to the team over at invesco. could this be the moment that finally unlocks some sustained dollar weakness and a hero that gets back through -- eight euro that gets -- and a euro that gets back through one dollar? tom: you've got to really listen to david bloom to get an fx update this morning. jonathan: the theme from hsbc for the last few weeks, the team of dollar resilience pushing

back against the cyclical, structural, political arguments for a weaker dollar and talking up dollar resilience. lisa: i always question where you stand on european leaders i wouldith some sort of wonder what tom things about the dollar weakening. jonathan: everyone knows where i stand on politicians worldwide. jonathan: 100 ash lisa: --lisa: 100%. the question is how much does a strong euro torpedo goods coming from the region? up until now, it has been viewed as a sign of strength. jonathan: i would take the euro pushing higher over a weaker euro to try to fuel exports and everyone pessimistic about it. i think we would rather see a stronger euro and real reason for optimism on economic recovery and fiscal integration in the perceivable future. i would take that over every

thing else, and i am sure others would, too. coming up on the program, will thing much out -- on the program, wolfgang munchau. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm rick gupta. across the -- i'm ritika gupta. across the u.s., states are -- officialscould are warning that they could implement lockdowns again. case numbers are climbing but all but six states. the white house has drawn a line in the sand for the next coronavirus a bill. president trump could reject a measure passed by congress if it doesn't include a payroll tax cut. democrats are solidly opposed, and even republicans are cold the idea. in the u.k., prime minister boris johnson will announce $3.8

billion of extra funding to help repair the national health service. he is also due to announce plans to -- by the end of october. german chancellor angela merkel is raising doubts about reaching agreement on a landmark recovery fund this week. in brussels, eu leaders are meeting in person for the first time in five months. amongst them, how the money will be distributed and greenlighted. reportng to a supplement on second-quarter gdp, the accommodation and catering industry in china shrink 18% from a year ago. some areas in china still have pandemic restrictions in place, plus tourism has shrunk as people avoid public places. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the stakes couldn't be higher. if we do it right, we can overcome this crisis stronger and emerge stronger from the

crisis. all of the necessary pieces are on the table, and a solution is possible. jonathan: ursula von der leyen there, european commission president. from new york city this morning, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. counting you down to the opening bell, with equity features shaping up as follows in new york city. think of this as the bounceback from yesterday off the back of those netflix numbers. in the fx market, there is your stronger euro. $1.14, up 0.4% going into an important we can for the europeans. tom: look at the technical constructions of the euro. certainly at the high-end of a sloppy range that we have seen. lisa agrees with me maybe once every three weeks. arrow and i haven't -- pharaoh

-- ferro and i haven't agreed since christmas. we've got to talk to wolfgang intelligence on his definitive knowledge of germany. jonathan: it was christmas of 2015, just to clarify. unchau joins us now, of euro intelligence, the director there. talk to us about chancellor merkel's shift in the last 10 years. the difference in this crisis compared to the previous crisis, and what is driving it. wolfgang: the difference is that , -- therevious crisis possibility of joint borrowing and joint physical effort. that was the casing 20 filed -- that was the case in 2012, and

that prompt at mario draghi to act the way he did. germany was not prepared for that discussion. her party was not prepared. her country was not prepared for that discussion. the germans framed the euro crisis is pretty much the crisis of fiscal irresponsibility. i disagreed with that framing, but it was very much the way it was talked about in germany. ,he greeks, the italians everyone was living beyond their means. situation, it was impossible to act jointly. this time around during the coronavirus crisis, the germans felt really sorry for italians, and there was a great groundswell of's empathy for what happened and for the need to show solidarity. sensed that shift in public mood quickly and realized this was a good time for a joint

public effort. this is not germany shifting on euro bonds and fiscal federalism or any of these things. this is a one-off. merkel wanted a big one-off gesture, which is why she and emmanuel macron, president of france, agreed to this 500 billion proposal of one-time fiscal stimulus. this is what they are discussing in brussels today. jonathan: there is a belief that this comes a mechanism to do the same thing over and over again. are you saying that won't be the case? wolfgang: absolutely, that won't be the case. the whole basis for this is that it is a one-off. for people regarding this has the beginning of a larger process, legally, they can't do this again. what will need to happen for

this to become the first step in a multistage process would be for the member states of the eu to change their treaties to say that the arrow bond is now part of what -- the euro bond is now part of what we are doing, and i see absolutely zero chance of that happening. the dutch will certainly not agree to that. i am not even sure that the germans, merkel at this stage would agree to that. what happens now in brussels is a one-off, and it should be seen as a one-off. it would be very reckless to think this is the beginning of , thatd of the euro zone we have nailed it. we haven't nailed it. tom: i want you to talk about generational shift in the leadership we will see this weekend. we remember the old horses of this development who came out of world war ii under exceptionally difficult circumstances and made this european union.

is it a generational shift this weekend in brussels? wolfgang: i think it is a generational shift. it may well be one of angela merkel's last big appearances in europe. she still has another year to go, but the new generation, the room forr guide in the the younger generation is the prime minister of the netherlands. it is a generation of younger .rime ministers this generation is very different than the generation marked by the second world war. in thiseration was born europe, and they have a desire to carve out their own country. it is a very different mindset that has governed the council. they usually come together, but is apirit of the 1950's

thing of the past. thethan: deeply --lisa: leader of the frugal for, does he have an argument the scope for the plan? wolfgang: he has a number of good arguments, and lots and lots of bad arguments. the good argument is that it is absolutely wrong to preassigned country allocations. italy gets 80, spain gets 80. the commission gave that list of countries, and then they retrofitted the various criteria so that this was the outcome. rudder says this is a ridiculous way of proceeding. basically, if you want to look at the effect of the crisis, we don't know the effect, so you have to take current data, and that may suggest that belgium would get a bigger share because belgium is suffering from the

crisis. with if the agree general rejection of any kind of european solidarity, that everything has to be alone, that countries need to reform and a quid pro quo to get the money. there are lots of unreasonable aspect of it, but the way the package was designed, it has made it open to criticism. package is trying to do too much with too little money. is trying -- it is trying to be a fiscal transfer, trying to be an investment program, and trying to solve italy's solvency .ssues however much it may be, you are not going to solve all of that with one package. jonathan: always appreciate your time. stay close. we've got to follow up with you

on this. coming up next on this program, mkm chiefarda, economist and strategist. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: 60 minutes away from the opening foul. recovering from yesterday evening's losses. from new york city, good morning to you all. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. 1.1424 going into an important weekend on the continent. in the united states, the physical discussion will continue. thisond market wide open administration to continue acting counter cyclically. your yield on a tenure security .6%. tom: the yields are extraordinary and screams of financial repression to steal a phrase from william gross. , whong us is michael darda takes first-order economics and folded into market strategy.

thent to go back to financial crisis and isl m theory and the effect of massive government debt on basic algebraic functions we all take as gospel. are we ready to blow up our economic theories because of a $4 trillion deficit? michael: i do not think so. we've been talking about isl m modeling over the course of the last few months, and it was actually quite helpful in thinking about the liquidity shock that hit in the early phase of the pandemic in the dark days of march. we can see that in the inflation breakeven market. there was the scary period where real rates shot up and inflation expectations crashed. extraordinaryed's actions, that has reversed. the fiscal deficits are not putting any upward pressure on rates. a large part of that is because

we have a pad a big crash in the economy. we are coming back faster than anticipated over the last few months, but they're still ground to make up, especially on the labor market and there are still lingering risks so the rate structure is low. ofhael: -- tom: you are one the great nominal voices of the racket. we have seen many requests this week for the return of the real yield. it is under intense discussion. forget about the real yield. the nominal yield is not survivable for too much of survive -- for too much of society. that is not a concern? but the is a concern, question is this a result of low neutral interest rates. you mentioned the real rate being negative on the tenure security. inflation expectations are positive and they are rising. i take that as a positive, but

they are not that high. 140 basis points out to 10 years. of low an environment neutral interest rates. financial repression is not the right term for this. there was a period in the 1940's where the fed was pegging short and long-term interest rates and you had galloping nominal gdp and inflation even with price controls because of the world war ii spending. that is financial repression. when rates are low because there has been a slump and there still lingering risks, that is not financial repression, that is just a low interest trade. it seems like times leading hairs but there is a massive intellectual fail on this point. jonathan: you are not. this is important. in europe and japan they were not able to engineer a recovery that led to higher interest rates. the tolerance for higher rates reduced and when you piled more debt onto the economy, it

becomes even lower. are you thinking about that dynamic? michael: this is the sad situation. i do not think there was a choice on the fiscal side but to move in an aggressive and perhaps open-ended fashion. where the u.s. made a mistake was in running up deficits in the last as two years of the cycle when the labor market was quite healthy. that was due to the lack of agreement on how to restrain spending and fit in some of the other policy initiatives the administration wanted to do. deficitsg says you run during bad times or the slump, not during a boom or a tight labor market period. that was unfortunate. hit with a pandemic, there is an emergency. timeg to do austerity in a like this does not make much sense. it is probably self-defeating. once the economy is closer to

fully recovered, it will make a lot more sense to be pulling back on the fiscal side will with the fed because of higher neutral interest rates. hopefully at some point we recover enough, we will get more traction and they'll will be able to offset down the road. jonathan: it is not a static point, it does move along. they have not brought that down. i wonder how low you think that should be? michael: it is a moving target. it is estimated. is to watchcan do some of these credit market indicators in the inflation breakeven market i mentioned before has been very helpful. i think the fed is getting traction with qe and with some of the liquidity credit programs , the nine of them they have out. you can see that in this gentle but ongoing recovery and inflation expectations. they are still lower than before

the shock hit, but they are recovering from 55 basis points at the lows of the year to 140 basis points. that is good. we are going in the right direction. lisa: a lot of people have been looking at low interest rates and justifying purchase of riskier assets by virtue there is no yield elsewhere. you've been saying stocks seem like a goodbye, you were right. what about now that the virus count has increased with the virus being in tandem with the economy. the more the virus expands, the less the economy can recover? michael: thank you for that and thanks for the question. that is a good one. we have moved 40% off the lows. this has been a startling rally, it even surprised me. stock marketis the is pricing in a recovery, we know that is happening. recoverytwo months the

was much more forceful than widely anticipated. what happens from here, especially with these hotspots blowing up? florida and texas together are almost 50% of the u.s. economy and california is another 15%. these are areas that are now backtracking on reopening's. that is a threat. that is the big question. the bar is higher for the equity market for sure. based on my interactions, most professional money managers have been pretty skeptical of this move up and there is still quite a bit of skepticism. , young as that is the case might have support for equity market debt at current levels or even higher, but an economic recovery with still low discount rates is a pretty powerful fuel. it does not mean we are going another 40% over the next few months, but i think we will hold

most of these gains. lisa: that skepticism has been , amazon, by big tech apple, netflix. netflix shares plunging after earnings yesterday. how much does that indicate an over enthusiasm of big tech and some of the gains they brought forward from the initial pandemic versus just a one-off on netflix? michael: another really good question. these companies that are leading innovation will have high valuations in an environment where growth is positive. noted, is if you you are trading at a huge sales multiple, if you start to disappoint, and if the economic cycle turns, there can be an enormous plunge. what goes up can come back down as forcefully. the key question going forward

is some of the rotation we have started to see going to have legs? example, absolutely obliterated this year but it has done phenomenally well from the lows of this year. that is one value sector that can continue to recover, and there are certainly some others. if we see more legs and this rotation into some of the value and cyclical names, then this market can continue to power higher from here. the mortgageom: rate under 3%. what is your assumption? for is the expected return a retirement or pension portfolio? michael: it will be certainly lower. we mentioned the market going over 40% for the last few months. , theyou move up like that anticipated return should be

lower, and those low discount rates are telling you lower returns over an extended period of time. that has created problems for pension shortfalls. we will be in a relatively low return world even though we bounced dramatically from the lows on risk assets. jonathan: great to hear from you. send our best to the family. michael darda. mentioning the underperformance of energy over the year, the rebound we have seen in the cyclical parts of the market. this week is interesting. sarah ponczek putting this out. the nasdaq down 7.2% this week. tot puts this week on track be the worst relative week the nasdaq since may 2009. tech underperforming through this week. on a deviation basis, those

ratios, however you look at them , are way out of kilter. -- run here we have seen maybe there are some parallels. i walked by lily on madison avenue. do have a sparkly bowtie? this is working well on radio, guys. jonathan: we will put pictures up for you folks on radio. coming up, mike mayo, wells fargo securities.

heard on bloomberg radio and seen on bloomberg tv, this is bloomberg. asika: anthony fauci optimistic there could be a new treatment for the coronavirus. the infectious diseases spoke to mark zuckerberg in an event and says he expects results from trials in the next few months. india has become the third country to record at least one million coronavirus cases. only the u.s. and brazil have more cases. india's population is more than double those two combined. that suggests the virus has more room to run. to see scaramucci wants the president humiliated in november. says president trump is

obviously incompetent. he is now seeking to vote for joe biden. he lasted only seven days in the coronavirus before he was fired. the president called him highly unstable. bloomberg learned a dutch -- two morepany airlines are saying goodbye to the jumbo jet. the 747 made a farewell tour. it entered service in 1970. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more

than 120 countries. . am ritika gupta this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the profitability of wall street is dramatically down. we have a different business model. that is why we performed the way

we did this quarter. if you look at the banking sector, the hits they are taking , the bankruptcies. jonathan: jeff gorman of morgan stanley -- james gorman of morgan stanley. keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. in the next hour we will catch up with jonathan golub of credit suisse. a little bit of an announcement to make. at 1:00 eastern time we will have a condensed "bloomberg real yield." we come back for 10 minutes with priya misra of dd security. a little project. time goes well, maybe over we will bring the whole thing back. a little bit of a flavor of "real yield" for the people who missed out over the last four months. a 10 minute version coming up later. has watchedgement you wind me up about this program for the past four months

and thought we have to get him back. michael: i am surprised you did not -- tom: i am surprised you did not cram three guests into 10 minutes. jonathan: i tried. [laughter] lisa: i believe that. tom: priya misra will be perfect to drive forward this conversation. the dynamics of the bond market are tangible and these come right over to a statement on the american economic system and what it means for american banking. mike mayo is with wells fargo and has been doing this for more than a long time and has always done it with a certain figure of executives and is required reading for everyone on the street. mike mayo, great to get an update from you. they are lining up the accountant of losses that will be taken down the road. do know what those losses will be down the road, or do you, like everybody else, have to wait? the mostse are some of

uncertain times i have seen in my three decades of covering banks. we have the results for the eight largest banks, and the conclusion is you have seen the twin peaks of pain. the provisions for future loan losses relative to the actual losses these past two quarters has been the highest in history. the second bit of pain is that the decline in the net interest market these past quarters has been the biggest in history. there is a double barrel shotgun pointed at the banks in terms of credit losses and compression, and that is huge pain. let me point out, this is not 2008, it is 2020. banks are now part of the solution, not part of the problem. the war chest for future losses is the highest in history at this stage of the recession in the past 50 years. the reserves for the largest banks equal half the level of

the actual losses during the global financial crisis. even with the huge buildup of positions or reserves for future problems, banks still grew capital, still grew value, and still covered their dividends, sometimes by one or two or three times. banks are still open for business. the growth in deposits at bank of america and j.p. morgan, over last year they grew equal to the fifth or sixth largest banks. i give the banks for +,cond-quarter earnings a b but when it comes to the outlook nobody knows. it is an uncertain time. you need to be ready for a variety of scenarios. lisa: i love having you on. twin peaks of pain. you have a way with words. pair the twin peaks of pain with the record revenues from investment banking and trading volumes. how much does this bring up political risk for the banks at

an unseemly time? the idea of profiting at a time of economic pain? mike: banks are serving customers. sometimes, like in march banks were serving customers with record lending as revolvers were getting drawn down. in the second-quarter banks were serving customers by issuing debt to the capital market. record debt issuance year to date, and his natural you have strong trading that follows that. whether you serve clients with lending or new capital markets, you are still serving clients. i would say that criticism is more of a 20 century criticism that a 21st word -- financial world serving the customer if you a large bank. lisa: given the likely pain in the consumer a lot of big bank executives are expecting, which financial firm's best positioned to increase profitability based on these results? mike: you have the twin peaks of

pain. the good news is the reserves for those future losses have been built more than ever before. these are sobering times. we expect loan losses to increase threefold over the next couple of years. the other part of the pain, the net interest margin should hurt the more plain-vanilla banks or than anyone else. we are going with the largest banks, citigroup, bank of america, and j.p. morgan because they are more diversified, they have more levers to pull, and digital banking is being dominated by the largest banks because they have better technology. you are seeing the market share and you are seeing an yeareration of their five because customers have been forced out of the banks. explain why goldman sachs wants to be a plain-vanilla bank? mike: of all of the ironies,

goldman sachs strategy has become more bank like, and you can see the second-quarter results, they knocked the cover off the ball with fantastic underwriting, trading, the traditional route of goldman sachs came out. this quarter shows you goldman ,achs is still goldman sachs but not what they want to be in the future. fargo,ke mayo with wells very appreciated. what an extraordinary week. i know jonathan ferro has been hugely europe centric with these critically important meetings, but i have to go back to full faith and credit to see where the bond market is, where the yields end. we now have significant vic's compression in the last 24 hours. vix compression. lisa: there is dissidence that the lower yields go, the lower

credit spreads go. this is the conundrum. the fiscal support conundrum facing -- 26 .7 off of the angst of 32 three days ago. what are you looking for your weekend reading? lisa: i want to understand how to view the increase in virus cases given the fact that will determine economic recovery. i do not see that being reflected in markets to the degree some of the strategists are saying. i want to know what they have to say about that. tom: i have given up on the dynamics of cases. i am far more interested in this angst and the dominance of the florida, texas, and california economies in this nation. i will be watching that closely. we need to say thank you to our team for an extraordinary week. particularly pleased with the people who have given us their medical expertise on this

terrible pandemic. please stay with us through the week. special coverage at 1:00 on bloomberg television of "the real yield." ♪

♪ jonathan: from york city for our

viewers worldwide, good morning, good morning. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. equity futures bouncing back from yesterday's losses. congress returning to work, facing contentious negotiations. the white house signaling to policymakers the president will reject a new aid bill if it does not include a presidential -- a tax cut. "one way of doing that is with the payroll tax holiday. he believes in must be part of a package. is optimistic. >> we will not go home without it. expiring, insurance it has been two months. more people have died. more people have been unemployed and more people have been infected.