10% on the disappointing guidance. is big question here is, that the wood to be a difficult situation for other mega caps? romaine: basically a fractional change on the day. for the week, significant changes. the dow jones finishing higher on the week by 2%. the s&p up 1%. 1% on aaq down about weekly basis. as sectors go, it wasgo, itas r utilities, materials, tech that was lagging all around. 1% in terms of average volume for the nasdaq, down 21% in your average volume on the dow. it felt like people were sitting this one out for the friday flavor of summer in terms of sitting on your laurels. small caps this week cap been up as well. >> in fact, a lot of the big

movers was in the s&p 500 this week. t-shirt.ands >> and your underpants, right? i guess what. >> when you work at home, you still need your briefs. [laughter] >> still with us, hopefully, david balin. david, we are heading into the heart of the earnings season next week. earnings companies next week, that is the real meat of it. what are you looking for to see from these companies? margin improvement? revenue growth? or are you still concerned about the bottom line? >> those three, but more importantly we are looking for the trajectory, the information they provide about the trajectory in their business at this point. the balance sheet health of the companies and their ability to fund operations, the degree to which they are bringing back

employees and we are looking at changes in competitive position, which you touched on several times in the weeks passed to see if companies are actually gaining share in their respective businesses. so, it's a lot of data that we think indicates the degree to which they have been resilient during this pandemic. well? it's noted just one thing, that's my point. but it is the health of the business as it goes into the future. >> i'm interested in your perspective on opportunity costs right now. as we have started to see a shoulds in the dollar, we heed the calls to go more overweight europe? or the rally that we saw in china that seems to be cooling off? how are you and your clients

talking about u.s. stocks versus the opportunities abroad? >> there is still an a norma's amount of room to run in some of the latin american markets. there's been a great uptick in brazil. mexico has yet to really rebound as sharply as it will when the u.s. gets its economy in gear. mexico will be a huge beneficiary of the recovery as manufacturing moves up. as far as asia goes, china has benefited from the fact that it is the first to come out of the pandemic, deriving a lot of stimulus in the form of lending in the country with a 2% growth target for the year, the stock market reflects that and is fully priced. on the other hand one of the markets we like is hong kong, which we think is undervalued because of that political upheaval. nonetheless, china will have to maintain the status of hong kong

as a major trading center and these changes will not affect and may benefit hong kong, like in 1997. from a foreign markets perspective those are good. in terms of europe, you have to be pretty highly selective and it depends on whether or not they pass the stimulus bill that the we expect they will. if they do, i could see 3% growth for the next few years, that would be a good switch. we like international diversification purposes. i think the opportunities that we laid out make a lot of sense. >> what are the main risks you are keeping an eye on? big riskrkets have one they are keeping their eye on, with coronavirus resurgence and another one possible in the fall, we need a fiscal package

from the congress that is strong. the fact that they have to pass the bill in august and get that done and that that isn't a certainty before the election, that's the first thing. the second obviously has to do with the real economic data that we get and if we don't have a bill passed or if we see a major downturn, which we don't foresee, but you never know, then the election itself will take center stage very shortly and we will have what looks to be a 90 day run in the news every day, clearly the perception of what the second try presidency or a biden presidency would look like. one of the things i will tell you guys, looking at the data, most predilections are positive for markets -- pre-elections are positive for markets. >> but if we can depend on history for anything at the .oment >> exactly.

>> fiscal clips are coming next week. what are you thinking in terms of how much the markets have priced in stimulus in the u.s.? >> to your point, the market is definitely priced about what will happen if there isn't one and markets haven't gone down get as a result, so if uncertainty rises, the markets could take a hit, but in terms of stimulus we are focused on what it is and we want to see stimulus that has been provided in several areas with individuals who are on them lloyd without having them benefits to the degree that they want to remain unemployed. then there are states and municipalities that have been deeply impacted, like hospitals, and the need to refill coffers in those areas. those are key employers in those states. the third has to do with special actions that could deal with

teachers and schools providing resources to maintain their operations and things like that, so there are specific areas we want to see their and to the extent that some industries have a longer runway in terms of recovery, we definitely want to see some for them because ironically airlines are like the banks of the crisis, we need them to become operational and even though you saw part of them flying this week, the fact is that people will want to fly more over time and as the pandemic progresses. >> always great to have you on, david. just talking about the stimulus effort. "what'd you miss?," we are going to be discussing those very things. president trump pushing for stimulus that includes a payroll tax cut. we will be speaking to the faculty director of the penn wharton budget model about

whether it helps the economy at all. this is bloomberg." -- this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ caroline hyde: i'm caroline hyde. is "what'dtick" this you miss?." caroline: the nasdaq with a drop this week as we rotate from tech into defenses. but hey, it's a friday. let's get takeout. or you could head to the store yourself. habits areting

changing. and trump demands a payroll/to taxes. what cut a cut mean and why are lawmakers on both sides speaking against it? the banks are all out, pretty much, as the government sends money in every direction at the same time. the banks putting up about $35 billion in profit to brace for the potential of souring loans. ceo's talked about this in their call, not knowing how bad it could get. ask the economy, it's hard to tell. >> we cannot forecast future, we don't know. >> it's a completely unpredictable environment. >> where it goes, we will see. >> it depends on how quickly the covid outbreak subsides. >> it's going to be a much

murkier environment going or word. >> the path reopening in many states remains unclear. >> the pandemic has a grip on the economy and it doesn't seem likely to loosen until vaccines are widely available. ask the raw data is not providing optimism. we have to advise caution. unclear, uncertain, that was the general tone out of the conference call. we also got earnings from blackrock, and their ceo had a lot to say about the uncertainty in the economy. annie interviewed mary a little bit earlier after that conference call and after the company roof ordered earnings. can you start off and tell us, what did larry fink tell you about his view on the economy? annie: sure, he said looking

ahead and considering where we are now with virus impact and recovery, the researching market for small to midsized is this is needs to come back in a meeting away and he said that what we are seeing right now in his words a kind of i've older economy where you have large companies that have been able to bounce back a bit from some of the pain that we saw in march with small and incised companies suffering. caroline: saying that we haven't seen the worst yet with relation to the virus, but this business has benefited from the stimulus provided and also from the retail investors to get in on the act and money to be put to work for fixed income. what were the key people ways, from your perspective? estimates for

profit and revenue this quarter. the inflow into the long-term investment products was really driven by the strength of their retail segment and fixed income products. investors a retail get more comfortable in investing in the second order, they came back to blackrock rod ox and you saw significant movement there, almost eight times the influence as with the retail customers a year earlier. risk heres there a that the inflow activity from last quarter might actually abate or erode in some fashion or another as we get deeper into the year and things settle out regards to the economy and the markets? that itarry was saying is hard to tell right now, but that he doesn't see this resolving itself in just three

months or by the end of the year, even. that it is going to take a longer time to see what shakes out as far as the suffering of small and midsized businesses in the u.s. caroline: the imf has been pointed to concern for small and medium-sized businesses worldwide taking a hit. businesses that are global, was there any talk on different arts of the world or any hope for what the u.s. government or other governments might ring to the table to make sure that we don't start to see this collapse in smaller and medium-sized annie: the imf did say that those numbers can triple this year, echoing what he had been expressing. inflows in terms of america,

europe, the middle east, africa, aipac, they saw the flows coming in from all different parts of the world, in the paint -- indicating you are seeing bounce back from these regions, but in terms of how long it could ease sustained he said he saw a strong possibility that more could be necessary. romaine: you cover the investment industry, what are you keeping tabs on next? blackrock is the first asset manager to report earnings, others are coming up this month. speaking to analysts, one thing they said is that blackrock earnings might be a bit of an outlier and you might see other asset managers with outflows from this past quarter, that that is something to look out for in terms of the pressure

points we have seen in the industry and how they could be expressed. but for blackrock, the quarter panned out pretty well. thank you. coming up, retail investors have been blamed for driving the market higher and naively adding up u.s. stock rises, but is there real evidence for that? we will discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: all right, the surge of retail investors flocked to the stop market. marketked to the stock and in robinhood they added 300 new accounts with a concern that the influx are game will -- gamblers here to destabilize the market. not be enough evidence to show it. joining us now, there is an old saw out there that when you start getting stock tips from the shoeshine guy and taxi driver, you know that the top of the market is near. i guess the modern-day is

robinhood in these retail accounts. looking at the data, what does it tell you about who these people are and what they represent to the market? >> it's a good question because they are certainly taking a lot of criticism about being gamblers andrew is that don't know what they are doing, but the truth is we don't really know a lot. you know a few things, we know they are playing with very little money. the sizes of the accounts tend to be under $5,000 and if you add up all assets at robinhood are talking tens of billions. we have added $11 trillion to 23, soue since march this is a very small section of the market, so they are probably not moving the needle very much, and the second thing is that some studies have been done about what they are buying, the stocks they are buying and how they have done subsequently.

whatoften it shows that they are buying has gone down rather than up. causing the market to go higher, that's probably not true either, but we don't have any evidence to show or support the widespread narrative that they are having a huge impact on the market. they have had idiosyncratic impact, to some extent, like what we sow with hertz. it really took a regulator to weigh in and you shouldn't dine out on these sudden interest in retail testing. oversight needed, but time and >> younce also needed? are right, you can point to certain stocks or certain decisions, you can scratch your head as to what seasoned investor would do that.

the answer is that nobody would, right? often we say that ordinary investors are not savvy enough to dissipate in the market. but i think we have that wrong. thattake the experience they need, we have to be able to let the mistakes. giving access to the millions of investors who didn't have access but or. age is 31. in terms of small dollars, is the market asset answer. romaine: in terms of someone who

, when they look at how the market rallies so hard in the face of economic data, what do you say to them and how do you factor in the retail side of the trade in that perception? >> well, no one likes my answer, but the market really only cares about one thing, the public companies that trade on it. it's not really a statement about politics or the economy, it's just a consensus about what's in store for the companies that trade on the market. this's no way to look at and come to any other consensus ant right now there will be earnings recovery soon and companies will be making money again.

they are a part of that consensus and it may change where people disagree with that consensus, but it isn't to keep in mind that that is all the market is telling you, that in general the prediction is we will get a recovery relatively soon and if that changes, the market will change along with it. always great to have you with us. happy weekend to you, stay well. let's get you a quick check on the latest is this flash headlines. a finance executive in japan worried about progress in gender equality. bloomberg that japan has a long way to go. market is a bit slow now, but there are a lot of reasons it could be somewhat or act of in a positive way.

we were quite strong in, so that was encouraging for us. caroline: according to japanese prosecutors, this man spent her final hours -- his final hours with his daughter after meeting with [indiscernible] fewer cars on american roads is increasing the risks for municipal bondholders. the problems are about $4 billion in government at. nationwide shutdowns have left those parking slashed the ratings on debt re-notches to junk. suddenly traffic is becoming more and more of a headache during my commute, so i think

that once businesses open up, cars will be coming flooding back. but perhaps not at the mall or the cinema. romaine: keep in mind those parking garages depend not only on office workers but people going out for entertainment and that isn't happening. talking about the s&p, they were pretty clear in the report that they expect this to be a long-term term trend that could last into 2023 and a lad -- logic isn't that people aren't going to park but that the level isn't going to be enough to sustain the bond payments of these agreements. caroline: also a long-term trend thee when covid is in rearview mirror, no pun intended, we will be going back to car sharing a bit more. it was always a bit of a fear that parking was on a downhill trajectory no matter what. romaine: a lot of changes could come out of this crisis. coming up next, the future of,

the pandemic and how it is changing how we consume meals. this is bloomberg. ♪

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for kids at home- all on xfinity x1. we're committed to helping all families stay connected. learn more at xfinity.com/education. caroline: the pandemic has affected every industry, but especially the food industry. with delivery demand skyrocketing and restaurants struggling to stay afloat, consumer habits have significantly changed the last two months. bank of america has been looking into all of this, a research analyst there. you looked into the new ways and means of feeding ourselves, physically. i want to start first and foremost with the fact that last night my husband insisted on making homemade pasta. is this people staying at home and cooking up a

storm? >> we have a leveraging survey work in the consumer sector trying to take the data-driven approach to these things everyone seems to be experiencing in their own home. we wanted to put data behind it. ourlatest edition of serious than we are looking at how people are spending time at home. one of the takeaways from a survey is 80% of survey respondents are spending more time from home even when restrictions are lifting, and they are doing tasks themselves that used to outsource like making coffee, coloring their ,air, fixing up their car fixing up their home. 60% of people preferred to work from home if given the option. this is a medium to longer term driver of above average demand for these kitchen tools and appliances benefiting the manufacturers both also the retailers like lowe's and bed

bath & beyond. it also a crisis -- it also increases demand for groceries. it is a pretty good benefit for the grocers as well. romaine: i'm sure there will the putting in a pizza oven any minute here. we are cooking at home a lot more, doing a lot of things at home. i've seen some data that suggest that because people are stuck at home, they are doing home renovation projects come whether it is fixing up kitchens or backyards. which types of companies are benefiting? liz: we have definitely seen a lot of strength in the home improvement category. there is a lot of optimism about the home-improvement stuff as well. it has been the strongest category within hard lines for a long time. we have seen double-digit growth

consistently week after week in home-improvement spending. the biggest question is that there is concern about the disconnect between spending, which is through the roof from an economic indicators like existing home sales and gdp and employment which would usually correlate to home-improvement spending. the spending growth cannot really last. one of the things we found in our data is even in spaces that are reopening like georgia, arizona, florida, growth in home improvement there is just as long as the state still in lockdown like new york. even as people are leaving the house more, they are spending on their homes. we think there is a longer tailwind in the home-improvement industry then there is in certain other categories like consumer electronics and other things in the state home -- a stay-at-home theme. caroline: i have to say come we ordered a pizza oven. it was on the waiting list.

you name it, we own it. i'm interested in what this does mean for the restaurants out there at the moment, and indeed, we have taken to ordering in. i have left britain behind and now i'm a proper new yorker. how much is that supporting the restaurant industry? how much is that something we very much depend on? liz: sure, the outlook for spending on restaurants remains challenged. attractiveoperate at price points -- there is potential there for tends to remain favorable for the delivery services, and then eventually as things open back up, we expect to see some return, but at below-normal capacity levels and restaurants. romaine: i am curious -- the general consensus seems to be at

some of the trends we are seeing right now, they are going to last, but when it comes to buying big-ticket items like pizza ovens and other things caroline has been hoarding, is that a full forward on some of those purchases? if you find it big-ticket items now, it seems like there is less demand going forward. liz: yeah, and that is a really interesting thing we have been watching out for. i think that what we look at is wallacet that consumers' is mostly being dedicated to their homes. instead of going out on vacations or to restaurants, spending has shifted to the home. how long that lasts is still a big question. tohink the data i referred about the states reopening and that are still seeing home-improvement trends in those states, that is an indicator that the forward demand is not quite as big a driver as what some people are concerned about.

it is the incremental demand that is being driven by covid-19. the comparisons get tougher as the companies have been putting up double-digit growth. is happened at one of couple quarters to a few years, we have to think about the fact that there is more demand to move in the city. that could be a much longer tailwind for home-improvement. millennials are finally entering the housing market is very low rates to get a mortgage. presuming there is some supply available for them we will see home prices driven up by that. usually the millennials have to buy an older home and cannot afford a new one. theoretically there could be the upside the last for a while. romaine: liz, great research. have a great weekend. lisa suzuki, bank of america

securities analyst. staying on this topic, we talk about eating out a lot. this is the time of the show where we bring in caroline's weather report. [laughter] romaine: hot and miserable we get across the mid-atlantic and new york and easy, not the best for dining out. this has been a big issue for restaurants. humid,s raining or too are people going to want to sit out there and dine? caroline: i'm going to be in my backyard -- romaine: that is celsius. caroline: what is it from 100? to be global in your temperature checks, romaine. having to lug chairs out, parasols one minute, rain covers the next. your american weather system still blows my mind. still going to be an issue. if you are worrying about trying

to support your restaurant, you have to think about how people are going to dine outside. becoming an addict to the weather report. romaine: 33 celsius. for our new york viewers, 90 degrees fahrenheit. let's move to the "first word" news with mark crumpton. mark: you two have a case of the fridays. the death toll in indonesia is mounting. more than 36 people confirmed dead, thousands or missing. thousand seven evacuated since monday. the flooding was triggered by heavy rain that caused three workers to overflow. joe biden is hammering president trump's approach to reopening schools during the pandemic, suggesting billions more in funding may be needed to educate children safely. a five-parkland released by biden's campaign suggests children can only return to the classroom after summer recess if more measures are taken. that could include as much as $34 billion more in federal aid that even his own party has

proposed. the united nations humanitarian affairs chief warned that failure to address the social and economic impact of coronavirus in the world's poorest countries could risk of serious harm. mark wilcox was addressing the united nations conference via video link on the day of the publishing of the third covid-19 global humanitarian response plan. it addresses the immediate humanitarian needs caused or exacerbated by covid-19 in his 63 priority countries with existing human entering crisis. >> covid-19 and the global recession are about to recap a -- about to recap it in low income countries. my message in the run-up to the g20 finance ministers meeting, to them and other rich nations, is that unless we act now, we should be prepared for a series of human tragedies more brutal and more destructive than any of the direct impacts of the virus

itself. lowcock added "we estimate of protecting the poorest 10% of the global population from the worst effects of the pandemic is 90 billion u.s. dollars."new york city more interface for every opening on monday. indoor dining, museums, and malls will remain closed. the move, announced by mayor bill de blasio, comes as new york hospitalizations have dropped to a four-moselle open with fewer than 1% of residents testing positive. statewide, more than 400,000 infections have been reported, the highest figure for any u.s. state. new jersey's virus transmission rate rose to its highest level in weeks. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: the u.s. congress returns to work on monday with contentious negotiations over the next round of stimulus. president trump says any new relief act which must include a cut in the payroll tax. some republicans are wary about the plan. it does raise questions of how much effect payroll tax cut could have on the economy. joining us right now is a faculty director and professor at the university of pennsylvania. give us a general sense of how much a payroll tax cut of any substance would contribute to economic growth. >> it would contribute very

little. thisbly if implemented at point, .1, .2% of economic growth. the reason why is most of the tax savings don't go to the people with of the highest willingness to consume the money. savers.it would go to that would have little impact on economic growth. that may seem counterintuitive, because of payroll tax in the united states is both the flat $137,000 this at year. it looks like that would be a pretty progressive change to remove that payroll tax. it is split, between employees and employers, and employers in particular, shareholders and business owners, would capture most of the employer side. in terms of the lowest-income

quintile, that is most likely to spend the money, they capture ..2% of the payroll tax cut instead, if you are try to really stimulate consumption, you want it more directed to them and less directed to the higher end. caroline: that begs the question for the professor, how can you target the bottom quintile much better? question, andreat they said that if there is a phaseout, and we had previously done analysis with the budget model that showed congress three different options. one is to send everybody a check for $1200, what the cost of that would be. checksld be giving to people who don't need the money, who say that, who didn't

lose their jobs. they have phaseouts based on income, and that is more stimulating than a payroll tax cut. romaine: is there an argument to be made for it? i know we tried this before during the obama administration -- kent: and bush. romaine: and bush, correct. we also saw at the same time projects both during the obama administration and bush administration where they did distribute funds directly. i'm trying to understand, what is the argument for doing payroll tax cut? kent: you know, part of this is elieving small business owners, because they would capture the entire side of the employer tax portion. in the long run, economists believe the employer side suited to that--is incident to that on

workers due to the competitive labor markets. in the short run we think small business owners but also owners of publicly held corporations, you and me as shareholders, we capture that. you are because thinking about the small business owners can give them some liquidity right now. it isn't needed on top of the other programs, certainly much .ore indirect always the pressure on the ball. first --d was the head towards the fiscal cliff as soon as next week, what is needed to support the economy and consumer spending come as we get jitters from coronavirus rearing its ugly head once again? what is the most important piece of the puzzle? kent: one is another round of checks with phaseouts do make

sense. peopleard to know the many to many money are most likely to consume the money. the second is in terms of unemployment insurance, you probably don't want unemployment benefits where it is more valuable for people to not work -- if theyir work if they are able to do so. a lot of people are making more money not working, even if they could in a safe way. most economists believe that probably went a little bit too far. but the third one that is not getting a lot of attention right now is that you want to make at least some verbal commitments, some overtures to the longer run, and basically say the capital markets, listen, we see debt exploding here, we understand it. we are talking about a short-run

thing. also some longer-term denizens that kick in -- longer-term mechanisms that kick in to curtail the debt growth in the future. you may say, what is the big deal about the third run rate? right now it is not a victim, that we know how capital markets work -- once they get jittery, capital can flee. at that point it becomes too late. you want to create some type of calming in the capital markets to let them know this is not an exploding path we are on despite the short run action. caroline: fantastic to get your insights. penn whartonthe budget model. thank you for making time for us this friday. facebook is front and center with the need to increase diversity in silicon valley. the social-media platform has struggled with black

representation. we spoke to that was the officer maxine williams about the challenges. >> we have been able to increase women in technical roles from 15% to 24% from increase women in non-technical roles, to the point where they are the majority, and even black people in non-technical roles have moved from 2% to 9%. hispanics, 11%. in a technical roles, black and hispanic people, these numbers have been stubborn. we have taken the multipronged approach where we have short-, medium-, and long-term strategies to drive representation. the point is the reason we want more representation there is we want to build products that can serve a very diverse groups. it is a top priority and when we have invested in, and we will keep doing it. we have a civil rights report out recently which works with us

for two years. the reason we invited them is because we wanted to get excellence. you don't invite the auto to get accolades. you invite the audit to see where we need to do better. i think it is a good thing because if we are corporate america, we don't see as much progress as we should for as long as people have been working and investing in diversity and inclusion. >> auditors say they are deeply concerned with how facebook has handled president trump's posts. you have a president who is threatened violence on the american people. specifically protesters in the black lives matter movement. now that you are at the executive table with mark zuckerberg, you are reporting what is yourheryl, voice in the room saying about how they should handle these issues? maxine: we have a really robust team thatntent policy

does most of the evaluation and that escalating. i come from a background where i am a lawyer, the majority of my practice was representing trade unions. i want to human rights organizations -- i run a human rights organization. my training, like the training of most in the different speed and inclusion field, is looking at the marginalized people at the center. they are at the margins. but for us, they are the center. looking at things from that lens allows us to bring a different perspective. me being in the room allows us to have a different perspective to consider, how these things are good impact these groups that are for people. -- are going to impact these groups that are vulnerable. we have a debate culture, and me being there at all times consistently in all the meetings helps us to have that on an ongoing basis, looking from the

pov, the point of view, of those that in some systems based on imbalances of color usually have a detriment to marginalize groups. emily: the critics -- romaine: that was an exclusive interview that emily chang had with facebook's chief diversity officer, maxine williams. at 6:00 p.m. new york time tonight, david westin will have a former treasury secretary larry summers and the university chicago dean of public policy. it will discuss health care policy and ensuring access to a vaccine. "wall street week" on bloomberg, 6:00 p.m. new york time. back in a moment. ♪

romaine: welcome back to "what you miss." investors are watching to see how the broader tech sector would react to the netflix mix

in their forward guidance. it held up relatively well. on the week take underperformed the broader-- tech underperformed the broader market. nasdaq 100ve weeks, outperformed the s&p 500. that streak came to an end. one streak that it continue going is the idea that the big cap tech stocks have not had two back-to-back days of losses in 44 days. that almost ended today when they were down earlier in the session but they managed to close higher fractionally. caroline: all eyes on the ndx 100. all eyes on earnings, because you set up a chat with how netflix might be impacting our desire to keep on rotating into tech rather than out of it. we have big tech names coming up. ibm monday, tuesday will be snapchat. all eyes have to be on tesla. the numbers on deliveries have been good, but are the numbers enough to substantiate what has been an incredible ride for

these stocks? microsoft one of the key stocks to watch in terms of evaluation for the that is it for "what'd you miss." " bloomberg technology" is next. romaine: have a great weekend. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪

♪ emily: welcome to "bloomberg technology." i'm emily chang in san francisco. california governor announcing almost all schools in the state will not be allowed to reopen in person for the foreseeable future. this as cases and deaths continue to rise here and across the country. u.s. stocks rising, but volume low. investors cautious on the backs of corporate earnings.