>> confidence is the elusive issue here. for those that are in work, that will be that fear of the specter of an employment coming on the tracks. >> folks are not going to go out and spend at the same level if they feel insecure about families' safety in their own health. >> a lot of businesses are not buying into the v. they see a distant effort -- they say i different destination, regardless of the journey. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, endless of arabs

-- and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. it is news packed. politicsng things on and international relations. the operative word this morning is stimulus. it is stimulus in europe, an announcement shortly, and presumed stimulus meetings in washington. jonathan: in europe, it is about signal, not size. making progress, they meet again at four clock p.m. local time, 10:00 a.m. eastern time. in the united states, it is about size. there's a $2 trillion spread between democrats and republicans as congress returns to work in washington. not small change. tom: what do you see in the bond to $4 when it devolves trillion, i've even seen a $5 trillion deficit? what does the bond market look like into the end of the year? lisa: it is wide open.

basically, saying we will give you money at the lowest ring cost on record in order to borrow money. you see that for the u.s. government, also for u.s. corporations. right now, the cost for investment-grade companies to borrow in the united states is below 2%. this is the all in borrowing cost. that is a government type level. and we are talking about a time with rising defaults. beat lester.tots soathan: he mispronounced it he can make like he doesn't nobody's talking about, but he watched more of that game than i did. [laughter] tom: coming up, a lot of this is the dynamic of the inflation-adjusted yield. it is just not there. jonathan: "real yield" might be back on television in some form, but there is no real yield in this treasury market. inflation expectations have picked up. the federal reserve is about to go to a new phase.

they are about to tolerate higher inflation. that does not mean inflation is going to pick up just because they say we will tolerate it. how they formalize that in forward guidance is going to be key in the next couple of meetings. tom: that segues nicely over to our next guest this morning. eric freedman joins us, u.s. bank national chief investment officer. calibrating the equity market given all of these stories, you go back to something a bit odd, the gordhan dividend account model. does that math work in this lt -- tumult? eric: we think it does work. if expectations start to consistently head lower, we want to own more stuff.

diversifieds like interest streams, whether that is from dividend generating companies, from real estate, those are things we think we have to own for clients to continue to keep up with shrinking yield environment. jonathan: if we are going to have lower, negative real yields, is the signal to buy growth equities. if growth and the price of growth is going to be at a premium, isn't that what we have to be position for? eric: i think you do. part of it is at what cost. what we decided to do last week is rotate a bit away from large-cap domestic growth and into more mid-cap/small-cap equities. not a full position rotation out of growth because we still think that scarce growth value is really important. i think there's really two horizons have to think about. horizon one, what does the recovery look like for the vaccine? does it lookwhat

like post vaccine? we think in either scenario, scarce growth will work. but when you have a big run-up in growth equities, it can go on perpetually. that is why we took some off the table, but i still think there's a reason to hold onto it for either horizon right now. lisa: how much conviction do you have going into small caps right now, given the fact that default rates are increasing, that the u.s. economic recovery is slowing, and given the uncertainty on what the policy mix will actually be? eric: you always do a great top on the credit side, especially looking at implied default rates. we do think you have to have some positioning there, some footing. if you look at equity not -- i dynamicsuity market , you will see. tech really had an outside day were you some rotation away, and markets still held up. if you look at what help up, it

was things like auto companies, capital goods materials, really economically sensitive stuff. while the perspective growth rates will probably come down a little bit, as we get towards that second horizon, a post vaccine world, there is some value to be found in some of those smaller companies. to your point, if we see default rates pick up, if we see some especially inhop, back-to-school, that is a case where we could be wrong. we are willing to take that at least on a partial basis and have a little more progress mentality, especially with small and mid-cap companies. jonathan: it is amazing that people are still reflecting on the price action of last monday. that huge reversal full check -- reversal for tech in the weakness that persisted throughout the week, what was the signal you took from that? i thinkhink the --eric:

the biggest thing was that the market still hung in there. if you look at an environment where you say that happened two months ago, that probably would have been down 5%, 7% for the week for broad u.s. equities, but the fact that we were actually flat with a lot of tech readership rolling over, that is a positive. i think the next few weeks will be really important, especially as we get closer to the back-to-school phenomenon because the state and local response is one we have to pay really close attention to. a lot of schools domestically and abroad are still playing it somewhat by year based on how the data looks. the fact that we saw a rotation out of technology, and yet we did see the equity markets hang in there, is at least a good sign, but worsening covid data could reverse that. this will be an important next couple of weeks. tom: you are way too optimistic. the vast majority of the

interviews you are doing are of measured caution and outright doom and gloom. what do they get wrong? eric: i think basically, our viewpoint is that over time -- and i don't mean to say this when we are talking about weeks, that risk premium work. if you are patient, you will be rewarded for the risk you take. there is still a tremendous catch-up trade that has not happened yet. i mean europe, small-cap, mid-caps. think of some of the really bond out sectors. they've had a nice bounce since the march 23 lows, but we are not even close to where we have been, nor do we actually have the opportunity to see those companies. there is some consolidation this morning. the bottom line we think there is some room for measured caution, a lot of the things have been discounted already.

of course, we have to be responsible. we have to be reminders of some of these risk that we don't have great edges over. the path towards a vaccine is an important path, but one the market will be priced on other great impressions for when it arrives. lisa: the lack of real yield driving people into assets despite the bleaker economic data also driving investors into gold, reaching the half levels in six years. it is only a matter of time before it hit a new record high. where are you uncle? gold?n -- are you on we have seen a little bit of a pause in balance sheet expansion. we think that is more temporary. somewhat more technical reasons as opposed to fundamental reasons. so as you see this continued

central-bank stimulus, europe on the tape, and likely will be later this week with an increased commitment to increased stimulus, we think that is going to drive the price of gold higher. we have been waiting for a pullback to get a little more aggressive. it just hasn't happened yet. we do think the risk is certainly higher as opposed to lower for gold. a key thing to look at is the total size of central-bank sheets as a great harbinger of that price. jonathan: great to catch up with you, as always. the complaint about gold for decades was gold has no yield. guess what? they are negative, and that has been the real story, the shift of the last several months. jonathan: but also encouraging -- tom: but also encouraging as well. gartman has been dead on on this. a lot of major houses have

gotten the skull right. jonathan: can i give you a flavor of the south side conversation at the moment? just a little bit over the data, there were concerns about claims this weekend or next week, concerns about the payrolls report, maybe next month or the month after. that is about a second layoff story. we have started to see things materialize. there's real concerns about the data that wasn't there a couple of weeks ago. lisa: basically, furlough is becoming permanent layoffs increasingly, with companies saying it would be ridiculous for us to operate our business the same way we used to given the post pandemic reality. a little bit, but perhaps it is a sign of what to come. jonathan: the conversation just starting to shift a little bit an important week for earnings. up next, we turn to europe. brussels and focus with carsten

nickel. good morning to you all. for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm rick a good. in new -- i'm ritika gupta. gunman targeted a federal judge, killing her husband and wounding her son. last week, there is a lawsuit against deutsche bank for alleged ties to jeffrey epstein. the netherlands, austria, denmark, and sweden certified $450 billion of the fund being made available as grants. the result will be in the form of low interest loans. eu leaders will meet again today to work of the remaining issues.

the white house and senate majority leader mitch mcconnell begin talks today on a new coronavirus stimulus package. bloomberg has learned the alkingstration is b at $25 million they want for contact tracing and testing. president trump is playing down the resurgence of coronavirus cases in the u.s.. he told fox news that many people experience nothing more than sniffles. the president called the u.s. response to the outbreak the envy of the world and called his infectious disease expert chief anthony halsey alarmist. -- anthony fauci alarmist. chevron offers to take over noble debt. oilould be the biggest takeover since the crisis caused by the pendant.

-- by the pandemic. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ ta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the stakes couldn't be higher. if we do it right, we can

overcome this crisis stronger and emerge stronger from the crisis. all the necessary pieces are on the table, and a solution is possible. jonathan: ursula von der leyen, the european commission president going into a fourth day of talks in brussels between the eu 27. from new york city this morning, good morning to you all. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. counting you down to the opening bell, one hour and 12 minutes away, let's get you some price action. futures recover a little bit, up four or five points -- down for five points a the s&p. there's your firmer euro. we give a little bit of that up this morning. $1.1441. italian yields coming in on the 10 year by eight basis points or so. it is not a done deal yet. we've got to say that over in brussels right now.

progress on a deal? no, not yet. tom: i look at what is going to go on in washington today and in the coming days as we have an american process, but this european process has cut me by surprise. you were weighed out -- you were way out front on how this set of meetings was different. jonathan: i think there is some real urgency, and we got that you generate some kind of step forward over the weekend. we still need to discuss strings attached, and not just size of the grants. that was the discussion over the weekend. let's have that discussion now teneoarsten nickel, intelligence european managing director. what do strings attached sound like going into this evening? carsten: it seems like we have made progress on the size of the --overy fund being personas

being proposed by the council president. but i think the question of scrutiny for economic reforms on the ground, as well as the question of the rule of law when we are looking at the overall budget for europe, that is obviously still very much in the open, and i think that is what we should be focusing on in the coming hours. tom: there have been changes since world war ii and how europe does business. is this one of those changes, or is that asking too much? carsten: i think that is a good way of looking at it, to be honest. this is politically transformative, what leaders are trying to cobble together here. in terms of the overall size, it probably won't be enough. we will probably be back to this point in a couple of months and a year or two from now, but it is a literally transformative moment, this idea of going to the market together as the european union, showing solidarity and applying great scrutiny for economic reform in

those member states that are receiving the funds. so i think we shouldn't underestimate the political importance of what is going on here now. jonathan: that seems to be the argument from market participants as well. if that isn't enough, we got a mechanism to come back and it would again. that is the takeaway. overwhelmingly, that is the consensus. do you believe that is the case? is there any reason to believe this is a one-off? jonathan: i think that is the case because setting precedent in the process of european integration, if you look historically, it has always been very important. i think that is the warning sign. that doesn't mean that the next round and that steps that are still ahead of us will be without conflict. it doesn't mean we are getting a deal today that basically sorts everything out going forward. the closer we integrate, the conflict will play out on the european stage. i think we are getting the first

taste of that now. lisa: i love that concept, politically transformative. is it a hamiltonian moment? the question of the frugal four and how they really feel towards the southern states, have there been any material concessions on the part of their attitudes --ard some of the some some of the southern states that are transformative in these negotiations? carsten: i think what is transformative is even with the , nobody hasl three questioned the idea of a recovery fund. that is the main movement. billion, 300 50 billion, we are fighting over the mechanism to ensure that. that is all fine. but the very idea that in this exceptional situation, in a europe that depends so heavily on this in the market, that has never really been questioned.

that is the main change here. jonathan: this is important -- tom: this is important. is brussels changed by this, or is it another ballet until the next meeting? tom: i think the main thing that is changing is member state politics, the domestic politics of the member states. we have seen that across europe. we are usually focused on the bad news, the rise of populism and so forth. if you look at france, the from a european leader like micron, the changes from angela merkel. so for me, the worst thing that -- jonathan: i hear you. the debate is about the size of this, not the concept. just by nature of the conversation, that is progress for the europeans. a final question about this evening. this has to be ratified at home. for prime minister rutte, how

hard will it be when the strings attached finally come out? carsten: that will be the key thing because he needs to be able to go home to the netherlands and remember we are going into election year in 2021. he's under massive pressure from the populist right at home. he needs to say we are not just putting money on the table, but gaining influence in better, more sustainable policies in the south. she can say that, that is a pathway to a deal. jonathan: if we can keep the bonds board up and take a look at italy, i think that spells out what clearly what this is really all about, not just european integration, but helping italy. overwhelmingly, that is where you see the positive response in this market. tom: just in the last 10 minutes, you see yields lower. the negative yield becoming even more negative. in the u.s., breaches of 2.14% now. jonathan: i just don't believe

this evening it is going to be fun and games in brussels around 390 billion euros of grants. needsminister rutte to get a deal he can go home with, and there are going to have to be strings attached. lisa: especially at a time when the irony is that italy, which is being supported arguably the most by this program, is actually less supportive if you take a look at the polls of the european union. the strings attached will be key in guiding the popular support are not. jonathan: in italy, it might sound really low, but when you look at the spread against germany, the german ten-year right now is -0.456%, setting just around the negative deposit rate. ecb gives you an idea of how wide that spread is, italy versus the core of europe. coming up this program -- coming

up on this program, we will talk about the core of the labor market. jason furman will be catching up with us next. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪

jonathan: 60 minutes away from the opening bell this monday morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. 500, downoints in s&p .2%. 500 still held up and grind it a little bit higher. we will hear from the big tech names into months end in just a couple of days time. yields .61%. the euro slightly firmer. euro-dollar 1.1447. a massive week. in washington dc, and brussels

later this evening. tom: stimulus everywhere. jason furman is the former chairman of the presidents council of economic advisors. he is one of our great voices on policy and he has taken over the -- we are thrilled dr. fuhrman could join us this morning. there is never been a next 10, whether you do it virtually in class. how do we come out of these magnitude of changes, the magnitude of fiscal policy, the magnitude of monetary intrusion into our system? jason: first, it would come out a lot better if we had a big magnitude than if we do not.

we have to admit we are uncertain. we do not know the path the virus will take. we do not know what the pace of the recovery is going to be. it is very different in different states. you need to build that uncertainty into your policy, have it adjust automatically based on economic conditions. labor economics one from furlough to layoffs to outright firings. give us the tone you see in the american labor economy. in the coming months, will there be a wave of terminations? i think there will be different downturns. one is the temporary layoff downturn. that is a national disaster. there is a second downturn, which is people who have been fired, people whose businesses

have gone bankrupt. that downturn is getting worse every month. the second recession is a normal recession. lisa: given the fact we do not seem to be having the virus fully under control in the united states, given the fact we have seen record numbers of cases over the past two weeks, how concerned are you about an accelerating wave of bankruptcies? some people are suggesting we have seen the peak when it comes to default. jason: i am worried. ultimately, bankruptcies are one of the functional things in the american economic system. we are better at bankruptcies than other companies -- than other countries.

that being said, up a lot of companies go bankrupt at once, if they do not have the financing to get through the bankruptcy and continue operating, that is what i'm worried about. for some companies, maybe the airline should go through bankruptcies. that may be the right way to handle the situation. it would need to be done in an orderly and managed way and i think there is a lot more ahead of us. lisa: can you link the extension of the $600 of enhanced unemployment benefits with the corporate health of america, the idea that corporate profitability has been bolstered by the enhanced unemployment benefits. how much can that be threatened if there is not an extension? jason: a lot. this is an amazing downturn where there is a huge hit to the u.s. economy. consumer spending is right back where it was 12 months ago. why is that? that is because disposable

personal income is right back where it was, if not higher than it was 12 months ago. why has income not fallen? because of the unemployment insurance benefits. this is a recession completely unlike the last one where you saw huge decline in consumer spending. here we have had the v-shaped recovery in consumer spending, been supported by the unemployment benefits. if they went away right now it would be a big blow to the economy. what is interesting is it is a natural disaster, and if we can be optimistic there'll be a cure, there'll will be a better america, what portion of the slow down is exhaustion is and drifts away, or is any of it endogenous and we have to worry about a permanent effect on the american economy? that naturalorried disaster covers part of what we are seeing. then you get the additional induced normal recession that

causes. model where head a we get back about half of what we lost, or two thirds of what andost relatively quickly, the rest is a slog that takes years. tom: six digits, i do not want to pin you down, but how much stimulus do we need in that couple weeks. trillion,number of $1 we see a deficit to $4 trillion, are those good numbers or are we lowballing the need? jason: if you did a well-designed piece of legislation, i think about $1.5 trillion would be sufficient. if you throw in a bunch of nonsense, which is likely to happen in congress, then you probably need more. tom: did you see how the professor from harvard denigrates our politicians, calling it a bunch of nonsense,

that does not happen in the united kingdom. jonathan: he is not in government anymore so he does not have to be as diplomatic. have -- leave you can you can say whatever you like. continue, jason. jason: i think the bulk of what is in there will be good. [laughter] lisa: he is backpedaling. jonathan: we will put that in at the end. is there any lesson to be learned from the shallow recovery in the previous 10 years in the recovery we are about to endure in front of us now. jason: there were some things we could have done. state local governments continue to makeack on growth sure they continue to be supported. the last time the stimulus ended prematurely. i think there may be some speed limit to how quickly people can no matter how much

demand. we need to be prepared for a lengthy recovery process and do our best to speeded up. derekou know the work of bernstein and others assisting price president bided -- assisting vice president biden. has biden contacted on you for advice? jason: i am in touch with people in the biden camp. i think they have a lot of good ideas. tom: you did not tell him it was a bunch of nonsense. jason: like everything, there are parts i like and do not like. jonathan: jason, we will let you go. always great to catch up. jason furman of the harvard kennedy school. is this a new habit of yours, you will work out who will be in a potential biden administration? tom: we are working on it. dr. fuhrman and i have done a number of things in the council foreign relations. his analysis is so transient

that even people of the republican persuasion have to read fuhrman to understand the center ground. there is no conversation about finding the center ground of democrats and republicans. jonathan: when you asked jason about the size of the stimulus package, it was not $3 trillion, it was something north of what republicans are looking for. tom: this is important. some of our guests are very policy driven on both sides of the aisle. same aisle as dr. fuhrman, rick michigan -- jonathan: this outlines the need for help through years end. we talk so much about a bridge to the other side. we mentioned several weeks ago that bridge might need an extension. we have not gotten to the other side yet and we will need more assistance. lisa: my question is how much of the eight we were talking about

is inevitable and how much is required because of a virus policy that is not working that well to contain the pandemic? jonathan: they are totally connected. if you had a cleaner slower reopening process, you might've needed to do a lot less, but i do not want to get away from the idea you would have had to do more. you definitely would have had to do more. where there is reluctance is we have to accept their people unemployed that cannot be employed because their industries are totally constrained by the restrictions around the pandemic. the airlines, the restaurant business. secretary mnuchin is talking about targeted help for various industries and travel and leisure and the restaurant industry are front and center. you cannot tell people they cannot go back to work because their business are not opening and then not help them. tom: those are the obvious industries and dr. furman alluded that there are less obvious industries that show a

sluggishness that may need aid. quite clearly there are two camps on the enhanced unemployment. one camp wants to extend them as they are. there is another camp that wants to end them, and i wonder if we end something in between. i understand the argument and might be a disincentive for people returned to work. if your industry is constrained and cannot normalize because of restrictions in your telling people they cannot get back to work even if they wanted, it has nothing to do with incentive. i do not think we should be in a position in washington telling people if you have a job you can have a payroll tax cut, but if you do not have a job we will take away your enhanced unemployment benefits. that is not a good message to send to anybody. lisa: just because they're not official shutdowns does not mean the economy is not slowing and jobs are not returning. this is a distinction we will see again and again as the virus spread continues to slow the economy. jonathan: coming up, we turn to

big tech. coming up next, a bull on some of the biggest names in america and worldwide. it is dan ives. from new york city, heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." union maye european be on the verge of the massive stimulus package. the netherlands, austria, denmark, and sweden have been holding up negotiations. now they appear to be ready do a billion would be available as grants. $860ackage could be work billion. brexit negotiators are in a tense standoff. u.k.ngs between the eu and have failed to make progress in the last months. the latest rounds of talks begins in london where negotiators say the concessions

are not enough. the eu says attempts to compromise are not being reciprocated. one democratic representative told abc there should be a lockdown of florida. meanwhile the mayor of los angeles says he is on the brink of new restrictions because of the increase in virus cases. suggest -- are far from over. president trump is questioning joe biden's competence. told fox news he would be on the ground crying for mommy. show the democratic candidate continues to lead the race. -- the price $9 billion in cash and stocks. a significantbay

minority stake in the combined company. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. . am ritika gupta this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i'm encouraged latest number

seems to be 390 billion. that is enough for the market to see there is a significant package, if not a panacea for all of the troubles. move on to other thornier issues around governance, around conditionality. jonathan: conditionality very much the focus this evening. 4:00 local time in brussels. leaders meeting at 10:00 eastern time. euro-dollar rolling over just a little bit. unchanged on the session. looking forward to catching up with mohamed el-erian at the top of the hour on bloomberg tv. this is not a done deal. time.:40 8 wall st maybe00 wall street time we'll get news flow out of your. a more negative -- out of europe. nevertheless there it is. amazon 11%been --

off the peak where lisa abramowicz bought two shares. there it is. amazon back. we need a tech update desperately from dan ives with wedbush securities. as you know, he has been quite optimistic. dip. buy the how do you judge that as a fundamental analyst? dan: a great question. my fundamental view is these look at the secular growth stories. right now if you look at clout, e-commerce and other areas of tech, you are seeing a lot of those growth stories accelerated by 12 to 18 months. in my opinion the re-rating for tech is still in the middle innings. lisa: let's go to cloud computing. is that the main driver of some of the gains you're expecting, and this is ahead of ibm

reporting earnings after the bell. microsoft wednesday in the week after with google and amazon and the rest. dan: right now the focus on the cloud continues to be dell and microsoft. that asthat is a stock we go to next year -- you look at what is happening in terms of growth. only 30% of workforce is on the cloud. that will accelerate through the covid pandemic. these are keys to some of the re-ratings on valuations of big tech, but it speaks to a blotter theme. there is a lack of secular growth stories and that is why tech -- so much higher despite the speed bumps. the haters will continue to hate your lisa: some people saying amazon's growth leads on a path to be bigger than the entire global retail sector combined. is this a retail company or a

cloud computing company given where it's profits are coming from? dan: based on the profits it is cloud. e-commerce and cloud is a 1, 2 pond. -- a one, two punch. when you look at the next leg of the story, it is not just e-commerce, it is clout. we believe $1 trillion will be spent in cloud over the next decade, and that is why you're not seeing just microsoft, but the whole work from home space and cybersecurity to continue to see all-time highs. tom: i look at apple. each has their own story. are these companies under owned or over owned by institution? dan: i think institutionally speaking, it is still a bit under owned. many are skeptical of the rally. when i look at apple that is the

next leg. iphone, io into the think the next cycle, the extended one, i also go into a re-rating. institutionally, you will start seeing more buying if you get to some of these quarters. tom: this is important. explain to our audience the -- thee to own a given pressure to own it if your institution. 30,does that work on june december 30, or december 31? dan: with so much weight in the index -- if you make a bet against some of these names, which is the wrong bet, the fund managers you are trying to figure out what you're using on your resume. that has been the issue. ,he path continues to be high

even though the valuations are in the stratosphere, it comes down to this is a new age with technology and that is why you see the strong get stronger in terms of the faang names. lisa: at what point does regulatory risk return? dan: that is a drumroll into haveweek when you appearing in front of congress with jeff bezos and the others. the drumroll starts to increase going into the fall. if you have a joe biden presidency and a democratic-controlled senate, that starts to become more of a risk. right now a background risk, but i think next week we will get a better sense in terms of how sharp -- lisa: we have heard about regulatory risk for a long time and it has not come to the fore in any real policy. which company is most susceptible to actual regulatory risk in the next year? dan: right now amazon and

google. those are the ones front and center. apple has been on the app store. with what is happening in terms of the eu, it is on both sides of the pond in terms of the threat. that is why preemptively you will see the ceos get in front of congress. they will be spending a lot of code overe 202 area the next months. tom: dan ives with wedbush security, thank you so much. lisa, we wait for the eu announcement. i see the headlines out, just lost them on the screen. the spanish prime minister speaking the word for the moment, which is compromise is in order. lisa: that is what everyone is trying to get to his some compromise. it seems the discussion around 390 billion euros is being well read in markets. i find it so ironic.

the more unified the eu gets, the less people in italy approve of it and the lesson of the southern states approve of the unity, which speaks to the idea which strings will be attached to this grant? tom: i totally agree. this is where i started the morning. the ability to be in brussels and play dear hometown audience. we will see the same thing today in washington as well as the gop greets the president at the white house. they are talking to each other but also to their constituencies at home. lisa: that is a great point. the idea mark ruda has to be home to the netherlands. tom: it is a fragile coalition to say the least. more lisa talks, the more the market goes up. green on the screen to greet the next hour. i want to note the vix in a new place. the volatility index, 26.03.

that is decidedly different than where we were a month ago. it is an eventful day. please day with us on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ jonathan: from new york city for

our viewers worldwide good morning, good morning. "countdown to the open" starts right now. we begin with the big issue. a small breakthrough in europe following negotiation through the night. the frugal eos of grants. angela merkel says after likely talks we worked out the framework for a agreement. dutch prime minister echoing that sentiment, saying "i believe progress has been made. we are willing to make the shift from lowe's to subsidies if reforms are taking place and the reforms can be enforced." eu leaders gathering again one hour from now in brussels. joining us from muscles is maria tadeo. 60 minutes to go. i know you're waiting for the prime minister to leave his hotel. how key are the top later this evening? maria: it has been four

difficult