>> the binary risks are impossible to hedge. i think buying some treasuries for safe havens makes sense. >> it is difficult to imagine when and how the fed will stop hiking -- will start hiking. we are looking many years into the future. >> i think we are slowing down, and we will level off in terms of the recovery. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. the price action this morning, we come flying out of the gate. with equities positive, the dollar weaker, gold breaking out, can you make sense of it? tom: there's a real breach of support here. let's start with the dollar.

euro-yen shows you the dynamic away from the dollar, translated. it is all about the weaker dollar across the board when i look in yields, i really look at the inflation-adjusted yield as a -0.92. 2012.reaches the jonathan: $2 trillion and 99 days. a $2 trillion spread between democrats and republicans, and 99 days until the election. you have to believe the president steps forward and says it needs to be bigger. tom: no question about it. the president just reads the riot act to his republicans about losing the house, losing the senate, losing the presidency, and getting out. i don't think it is $1.5

trillion where we are heading with mr. trump. what i would focus on in a week of technology earnings is that equities are so resilient here compared to what else you and i see on the bloomberg terminal. jonathan: a massive week ahead. let's get to the morning brief. a fed decision coming up later this week. tech earnings in the mix. latere get u.s. gdp data in the week. here's the price action to kick things off. 15,ty futures up positive by 0.5 percent. i've got to say, euro-dollar. board at $1.16 -- euro-dollar quickly at oney $1.16.16's -- at at $1.1724.

tom:tom: just to get started this week, the single thing i focus on is the resiliency of the corporate economy given the political overlay. i can honestly say i was thunderstruck last night at the republican battle that mr. meadows, mr. mnuchin, and senator mcconnell are doing. jonathan: i couldn't agree more. the conversation begins this morning with eric stein, eaton vance codirector of global income. equities just shifting higher even though the world around us is becoming increasingly uncertain. why? eric: first off, thanks for having me on, and good morning. i think it is something tom keene just mentioned. is -92eld in the u.s. basis points. you have a weaker dollar. gold going up. global liquidity is coming back, even though there are massive problems in the real economy. that helps the corporate sector

broadly. obviously you have the tech part of the architect, which is almost like its own sector. tom: the weekend fear is it is like november of 2000, we are setting ourselves up for march of 2001. do we slide through this odd bond market do equities adjust and adapt in a measured way? all right you worry -- or are you worried about a jump to something ugly? eric: great question. tom: you better like it. it's my only good when this week. eric: that's a good way to start monday morning. me and my colleagues are typically more focused on microcredit markets or micro fixed income markets than broad prognostications, but i would say that this disconnect between wall street and main street can continue for some time, given the liquidity out there and given what the fed is doing. i think when people point to the

fixed income market and say treasury yields are low, that must mean equities can't go up, that is part of it. but if the fed is providing , you can keep markets for higher than longer than many would expect. tom: it is fascinating. for a reappearance of "the real yield" with jonathan ferro, look for that. jonathan: i think the fed decision later this week is really important. the fed has already told us that we would move from stabilization to accommodation. i don't even know what that means at this point, given the amount of stimulus we have seen over the last couple of months. tom: i am tearing up. the team gets the twos-tens spread up there like it is nothing. you can see the deterioration. on radio, all you need to know is the curve is flatter. helpthere at stein out --

eric stein out. jonathan: it's nothing to do with the two-year. it is all about tens in the longer end of the curve. are you fighting the fed if you are looking for a steeper curve? eric: i don't think the fed necessarily once a lot flatter curve. i don't think they want a super steep curve. but i agree with the previous comment you mentioned alluding to jamie dimon. the steepness of the curve does affect the banking sector, so i do think at the curve flattens, the fed actually gets concerned about that. that is a big debate i've had with my colleagues at eaton vance. clearly, we are in markets that are heavily manipulated by the fed, but on a day-to-day basis, i think the steepness of the yield curve means something. jonathan: jump to wednesday. what is it mean for chairman powell? eric: i think he is going to allude to this transition. you just mentioned this on governor brainard's comments.

who knows what that means with negative real yields? but i do think the fed will have more open-ended qe, more thresholds before they raise rates. yieldeems to pooh-pooh curve control, but who knows? the markets don't need the fed's help anymore. tom: what are you seeing in flows at eaton vance? eaton vance is a venerable house. in text excellence managed funds. what are people actually doing with their money? eric: thanks for the plug, tom. on the fixed income side, i think of us as experts in credit markets. i think investors are looking for yield, whether they are finding that in high-yield bonds, floating rate loans, emerging-market debt, things like that. people are looking for yield. if you get negative yield on real yields and treasuries and very low nominal treasuries, i

think investors need to find yield elsewhere. tom: what does a weak u.s. dollar due to that em debt? eric: it actually helps it. if it is denominated in emerging-market local currencies, it is actually positive right off the bat that you get strength in those currencies. as a dollar-denominated investor, you are making money right there. if you are denominated in u.s. dollars, there is no effect on day one, but it makes it easier for some of these countries, given what is going on with covid, it makes it cheaper for them to pay back that dollar debt. so it doesn't help you day one, but it probably makes those countries more creditworthy with a weak dollar. a weak dollar is good for emerging-market investing for sure. jonathan: do using the world needs a weaker dollar? eric: you can go back to the 2016hai accord in early after the dollar was strengthening, and there was this talk of trying to get a

weaker dollar. i do think a weaker dollar help pick -- a weaker dollar helps. easier for corporations around the world that have weaker dollar debt. it is good for easier conditions, so i think global policy would much rather a weaker dollar than a stronger dollar. jonathan: if you had over to the ecb, i imagine the rate of change on euro-dollar isn't going to be a good thing for them anytime soon. $1.17 on euro-dollar, and it is not just euro-dollar. euro china is breaking out as well. is the euro moving too quickly? eric: i do think that ecb doesn't just look at the dollar, but the euro broadly. yuanthe on -- with the underperformance, i don't think the ecb wants to see a strong euro versus everything else, but

you could argue, given that europe is doing better given the virus, and given the eu recovery fund, from a european perspective, certainly there's been more coordination and cohesion then we have seen previously. to the extent that there was risk premia in the euro on a potential breakup, that is obviously significantly lessened now. , think the ecb will take that and inflation expectations come down, they wouldn't want to see that. jonathan: great to catch up with you, sir. let's see on the fx market. $1.05 on dollar-yen. these type training rages -- these tight trading ranges we've been sat in the last couple of months. the same thing on the 10 year, sticking in and around 60 basis points. move to the downside on friday continues this morning, down by

two basis points 0.57%. tom: dxy, the blended major trading index, down right now well owned or -- well under 94. i totally take your point on the constraint of stronger euro. anytime you get a big move like this, there's got to be a set of mystery constraints. front and center to me is the constraint of the euro. the rate of change come the speed of getting out to $1.20 has got to have the attention of madame lagarde and the rest. jonathan: for everyone down in washington, d.c., one on earth are we doing? when do we have an agreement between democrats and republicans? tom: it was a relief for eric stein to avoid it for 20 minutes, but let's be clear across this nation, there is no other story this morning. i was thunderstruck at senator

mcconnell's comment of in the next few weeks. i have no idea how they get out to the next few weeks. jonathan: i think they tightened up the message last night. i think we have a very different equity market. we will catch up with kevin cirilli very shortly, and later, a conversation you won't want to miss with henrietta treyz of veda partners. lisa abramowicz will be back with us tomorrow. alongside tom, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell unveiled the latest republican coronavirus relief package. the white house plans to cut the weekly $600 unemployment boost to about 70% of pre-pandemic wages. house speaker nancy pelosi has that proposal. democrats passed their plan a couple months ago. health officials around the world are getting a reminder of how tough it is to permanently stamp out the coronavirus. they are grappling with second

waves on the pandemic. china reported the most cases since mid arch, and spain is scribbling to stay ahead of new outbreaks that lead the u.k. to impose quarantine on travelers. this week, federal reserve chairman jerome powell is expected to reassert that odyssey rates will remain near zero for a long while -- that policy rates will remain near zero for a long while. biggest tech companies have gone on a buying spree this year. the number of acquisitions have come at the fastest pace since 2015, despite antitrust scrutiny under the trump administration. critics say they are snatching up rivals. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta.

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>> the original unemployment benefits actually paid people to stay home, and a lot of people

got more money staying at home than they were going back to work, so the president has been very clear, our republican senators have been very clear, we are not going to extend that provision. jonathan: white house chief of staff mark meadows on the fiscal steps to take place in washington, d.c. this week. good morning. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. here's your price action this monday morning, two hours and 12 minutes away from the opening bell. equity futures higher 14 on the s&p, 0.4%. euro-dollar, $1.17 handle. the dollar the weakest going back to 2017. 10 year yields weaker by a single basis point. on gold, there you have it. in the commodity market right now. the focus has got to be on washington, d.c. 4:30 local time, the big reveal. tom: over the weekend, the chaos

involved all wrecked around the calendar. kevin cirilli is the bloomberg chief washington calendar correspondent. he's here to try to get us to august 1 or august 3, when the rent is due. in "the new york times" on friday, a dissertation on $600 a week. here's the summary. below a certain income level, it is a free lunch. i get that. above a certain income level, it is a huge salvation to the working lower and middle class in this country. why do republicans want to bury the low middle class is a fair amount to be poor getting a free much. kevin: you heard this on the sunday shows over the weekend, but you also heard it over the past couple of months from members at the labor department. it started as quiet conversations, and now it is larger conversations being had, which is that some individuals are making more on unemployment, according to the republican argument, then they would be if they went back to work.

that is why republicans are saying if they want to encourage companies to be able to welcome back their employees, because on the longer-term, republicans say that is going to make more economic sense. tom: why the reticence on state and local aid, which i believe some would go to republicans? right now, the way the unemployment benefits have not been issued to individuals living without homes, individuals who are not registered in various other systems, millions of americans in the underserved communities haven't received any financial assistance, so there is that issue as well. democrats are saying that 70% of the $600 is not enough cash. i think you are going to have this fight again come the fall, when the next round of stimulus is most likely needed. alreadyt trump is

suggesting this will not be the left front of stimulus before the election. jonathan: this is not just about size. it is about process and execution. in the u.k., they also had a furlough scheme. tois 80% of wages out october, but they don't have to roll out that policy across multiple state offices. if you go forward with the republican idea of 70% of wages, how do you execute that cleanly in the coming months? kevin: there are some of the process questions in terms of how to execute that. even from a broader standpoint, it is the smaller businesses, many of these individuals in need of this economic relief in terms of the on employment benefits are employees of small businesses. we had this conversation, that based upon reporting here at bloomberg and elsewhere, small and medium-sized companies were not able to get the economic relief in real-time. so i think what i will be looking for once the proposal is

, what isnveiled today the republican solution in order to make sure that smaller sized businesses get access to that capital just as quickly as big businesses? jonathan: republican leadership tightened up the message over the weekend. , halfr graham on fox news the republicans are going to vote no. do we have an agreement, or do we not have an agreement? tom: is this the reaffirmation of the tea party, or is the president going to step in with a vengeance? which is it? kevin: both. [laughter] tom: you can't say that on "surveillance." kevin: i am not trying to play both sides. here's why. come 2024, when we've got the deficit through the roof, what is going to happen is we public

and's, some republicans are going to need to be able to say that they were against spending more money. what is happening on the right is the same thing happening on the left in terms of government assistance. tom: they are going to do this announcementtom: you are going to have some guest on. all this comes down to is republicans lose the house, lose the senate, lose the white house . as president trump at the strength and power now to sit the crew down and say, no, this is the way we are going to do it? kevin: i was struck by a comment president trump made in which he said that phase i execution of the u.s.-china trade deal was something that wasn't necessarily at the top of his radar. it really showed the coming shift in terms of how the president is listening to people like kellyanne conway, senior counselor to the president, who has been advising the president to change his tone as it relates to the pandemic, but also as it relates to the economy.

i think the subtle shift in tone, whether on the u.s.-china relations, or in terms of saying it is time for america to get back to work, is going to continue. tom:tom: do you see how cirilli is different now that we are 99 days away? he changes. jonathan: just a final one for me. what does it speak to this moment, the fact that $1 trillion in washington is now considered too small? kevin: the same thing tom just pointed to, that there's going to be a deficit conversation between now and 2024. november 4, not november 3. get ready because that fight is coming. jonathan: looking forward to coverage from you, sir. tom keene 99 days out. i think many people we speak to on any given day refused to believe that the president is going to allow his party to go small on this 99 days out from the election. tom: i agree. i am to the point where i would

say presidential power comes in here and there is an attitude adjustment getting the number up. partial orf a itty-bitty kind of program versus the democrats' larger, all envisioned, that will be the key point. doathan: if you don't something large to offset the shocks to income, the high levels of unemployment will persist into year-end. this economy consumption has held up pretty well, but it is going to get hit. tom: i go back to gdp and the trillions of dollars we are putting out as percent of gdp, more than world war ii. frankly, europe is going to have the same discussion. jonathan: we will head down to washington next and catch up with henrietta treyz of veda partners. equity futures stretching its legs a little bit, up by around about 0.4%.

euro-dollar comfortably through $1.17. spot gold at a record high, 42, up 2%. "bloomberg surveillance this is -- this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. lucy abramowitz will be back with us -- lisa abramowicz will be back with us tomorrow. here's the price action in the equity market. a lift this monday morning, up 15 on the s&p, 0.5%. the dollar breaking down over the last couple of weeks. , $1.1726.reaking out 10 years of misery, and then every decade you get to say i told you so. this monday morning, for the gold bug, it is i told you so. tom: it is i told you so for dennis gartman. major credit on this. he's been absolutely brilliant. we are talking about all of the politics, but the reality is you

have to go down to marble hall. they are in the marble halls and all of that come up and the bottom line is they have to commit policy. it would be nice to have somebody that actually understands those dynamics within the hallways of congress. jonathan: not just the agreement. let's bring in henrietta treyz, veda partners director of economic policy. republicans are coming to some kind of agreement about 70% of wages. is this something state offices can actually execute if this is agreed down in washington? henrietta: it is not. thank you for having me. we herded our conference from every office, democrat and republican, that not only does the federal to part one of labor not have the bandwidths to calculate 70% of an employee's wages per 31 million people, but the state level delays would be

completely blown out of potentially eve the entire month of august. if you're talking about just getting these checks out the door, it could be a delay of five to seven weeks, depending on which states you are in, how populated they are, how much their unemployment rate is. getting these thresholds into policy is not realistic, on the policy needs to be dropped. tom: in open but the new york times" friday -- in "the new york times" friday, someone making $35,000 a year makes $944 a week benefits in a net. i get that is untenable to conservative republicans. are they going to take everybody else in the working class down with them as they try to not give a free lunch to the poor people? henrietta: i think the main question is how many republicans are you talking about.

the process,ing of there were 10 to 13 republicans who would be voting for this bill. that range is now somewhere from 30 to 35 republicans. that means the republican caucus doesn't have consensus over this policy. when they roll out a package later today, which is our hope, round 4:30 -- we were expecting that on thursday as well -- but hopefully we will not get a united caucus front because there are about 30 votes that will never materialize. is president trump dealing with a nascent or maybe brand-new tea party? henrietta: i think a lot of this is because you don't have a consistent message from the administration. the president focused on two untenable policies, a payroll --.cut and

there's no sense of leadership and there is no set policy they can all rally around. where a majority of folks hate this bill, no matter what comes down, it will not pass. jonathan: are you telling us that at 4:30 eastern, when this is revealed, they are not just negotiating with democrats? they are still negotiating with themselves? henrietta: absolutely. you can tell because they don't know how any bills they are going to put out yet. there are parameters for an insurance liability and a back to work bonus, and some hospital and school funding. that is all fine and well, but the plan is still to separate the package into at least five other pieces and do them all piecemeal. you can tell when they don't have a process plan they don't have a fundamental policy plan. jonathan: how on earth due to the democrats negotiate with republicans if they haven't come to agreement within the party? henrietta: that is the problem.

right now it is all interparty. dems get to say we've had our heroes act, which is what pelosi has been doing for the past several weeks, saying we have been ready to go. i had been optimistic that july 31 would have been a hard and fast deadline. but none of that is moving the needle. i don't think we get this bill until august 6 at the earliest. treyz of us, henrietta veda partners as we dive into some of these politics. hugely influential on this monday. futures up 17. real simply, help me with the calendar. july 27eurs like us, is -- and rent is due for many people, and many people can't pay it. do they get that in washington? henrietta: i don't think so, and

i have heard that directly from staff. there's a feeling of being out of touch. a good example is obviously the foreclosures and evictions component they are talking about. one of the ones that really strikes me as not having a plan for going back to school. if you are going to be focused on the economy, you need to have a plan in place that allows parents to send their kids to school. there's no sense of urgency there, so it is a pretty widespread disarray. august 3,gust 1, how are parents supposed to percentout school if x of the people can't pay the rent? henrietta: exactly. yourust have to tier problems and figure out which one is the most urgent. that is why you had a flat top line unemployment provision, just to get a number out the door to help cover some of these issues. negotiate with your landlord,

try to work out some sort of rent deal. assume that there is supposed to be another moratorium on evictions. the issue with d.c.'s they are very comfortable passing retroactive policy, and that is something that creates a lack of urgency. if i know as a senator i can pass rack strict if -- pass retroactive unemployment insurance benefits as we allow it to lapse, that creates a scenario in which, in your mind as a senator, you may be have until august 14 to pass a bill. jonathan: and we can already see the blame game down in washington, d.c., and that is going to ramp up this week. president pulls on the economy, is that at risk right now. polls are i think the showing that is at risk. he has declined since may, including in battleground districts and states. i thicket is a very consistent that the coronavirus is

everyone's concern, and the coronavirus issue trumps the economy issue. can't fix the economy until you have some sort of vaccine, or at least a comprehensive plan in fix. to lock down a covid that creates a circular feedback loop of if you can't handle covid, you can't handle the economy. jonathan: this is the risk coming into august. the electorate has managed to split the two ideas, the pandemic and the economy. we've got to a point where slowly come of the electorate is starting to complete the two ideas. if you can't handle the pandemic, you won't be able to drive recovery in the economy. tom: this goes back to the v-shape. the v-shape has disappeared. jp morgan has to wait for the present data to come into have

an understanding of what happened to the v. that is where we all are. to be fair, the politicians don't know what q3 looks like. jonathan: talk to us about this, the blame china game being played. there are real reasons to address issues with the chinese communist party, but blaming china, i just wonder if that is a decent enough excuse going into this election come november. i think it's a good --henrietta: i think it is a good political strategy. people agree china is a nefarious actor. i think the president is making a really well calculated risk. i also think there's little chance of the biden administration -- or campaign, rather, would try to skewer his policies and say we actually want to stand up for china and maybe not be so bullish, and don't close the consulate. i don't see the campaign trying to step out in front of any of those daggers. the real question for anybody really watching the trade war is

to see what the president is doing on economic policy. is he putting aggressive sanctions on more than just a couple of chinese officials? no. if the prospect of tariff increases rising? now know. -- no. so isaac we will -- so i think what we are seeing is very windowdressing political. don't think it risks a phase one trade deal. i believe it underscores our point that has been, for a long time now, you can't risk losing the votes in the heartland. you can't risk those senate seats or electoral college votes. jonathan: tremendous. great to catch up with you. henrietta treyz, veda partners director of a comic policy. for the president, there is a huge incentive to go bigger than

$1 trillion. a huge incentive to take away the argument from the democrats, kick the legs away from them going into august, september, october, november. tom: there's no question. do we see it this afternoon, or do we see it this week? talked about how the republicans have to finish strong. i have to point out that the tots finished strong. it's the only sport that actually operated. jonathan: do you feel good about being in the europa league? henrietta: i wouldn't -- tom: i wouldn't know the europa league if it hit me over the head. but the credit for the premier league, at least they played. we can't even seem to get going here on sports here in america. jonathan: tom keene, the only man in america who watched

spurs-crystal palace over the weekend. good morning. alongside tom keene, very excited about the rubber league -- the europe and league -- google it if you don't understand it. from new york city, good morning to you all. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. today, senator mitch mcconnell is expected to release a coronavirus relief package to set the stage for negotiations with house democrats, who released their bill a couple of months ago. it would provide another round of $1200 direct stimulus checks. white house economic advisor larry kudlow insists the u.s. economy is still set for a third quarter recovery. he said the virus surge in sunbelt states will have a limited effect on the rebound. he predicted a 20% growth rate

in the second half of the year. the british government quarantinewo-week for travelers from spain, calling it another blow to vacationers. and industries that should goods around the world say they aren't ready for the challenges of getting a coronavirus vaccine from drugmakers to billions of people. they would face problems ranging from shrinking capacity on ships and aircraft to cumbersome paperwork. bitcoin rose about $10,000 for the first time in six weeks. fans of the largest cryptocurrency have called a digital gold. last week, regulators said u.s. banks can provide custody services for crypto assets. global news 24 hours a day, on

air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i don't deny that some of these hotspot states are going to moderate that recovery, but on the whole, the picture is

very positive, and i still think the v-shaped recovery is in place, and i still think there will be 20% growth rate in the third and fourth quarters. jonathan:jonathan: national economic council director larry kudlow speaking to cnn over the weekend. let's give larry some credit on one thing, q3. most economists agree with him come that q3 will be a bounceback. the disagreement is q4. most people just acumen the mechanical lift you get from shut down to reopen plays out quickly, and we are already seeing that. on top of that, another layer is the fact that we have seen tension across the sunbelt, and consumers and businesses have pulled back. that is where the agreement is with the administration. knows this from his work with bear stearns years ago. we've got confusion in job economy, and for the politicians it is all about jobs. this confusion of furlough, layoff, and the rest of it.

the jobs report here, i believe it is august 7, is going to be extraordinarily important. jonathan: we have a huge problem with the duration mismatch. this pandemic come of this weakness in the economy is going to last a long time. we keep playing three months, four months fiscal policy band-aids, and every time we visit a new one, the collective will fades. you can already see the collective will fading. tom: there's no question about it. the political overlay we have covered in the last half-hour, i think you are going to see it in the markets. i am just looking at the low yield regime we have, with signals slowed down and aggregate demand. there's no other way to put it. jonathan: you don't see it in the markets right now. on the s&p 500, we advance. yields lower. real yield, the big issue. we will talk about that was james sweeney of credit suisse

at about 8:30 eastern. gold is breaking out. the move from $1800 to $1900 has been soaked wit -- has been so quick, so fast, just five trading days. tom: let's look at the virus in a different way. there are very few professors that can write a textbook that sells like crazy, and then there's very few that can make it a global classic text. lawrence gostin's "global health law" is the only book on the matter. we are honored that professor gostin of georgetown could join us this morning. are we becoming in this pandemic more european? are we speeding up our evolution away from the health law that we used to do to a more european model more rapidly? lawrence: that is a really great question. america isation in

have never seen more european about the ideas of equity that we all have to have accessible, affordable health care. there's a lot of discussion about vaccines, and that we need to make sure that everybody gets them. but we are a long way from europe. i've lived under many of the .uropean systems they are very different from the one we have now. we still have large numbers of people that can't access health care, large in equities. the conversation is one thing, but the actual reality on the ground is what another. tom: what have you learned in this pandemic? what has surprised u.s. the global expert on not only health law, but frankly our health system? lawrence: you know what the really interesting thing is? i wrote the model emergency health powers act after 9/11 and

the mtrax attacks -- and the anthrax attacks. what we have seen now is mostly what i expected. devastated economy, devastated social structures, quarantines. but i couldn't have ever imagined that you would actually have lockdowns of major cities around the world. it was really quite astounding, of this pandemic. the work atrted princeton. i want you to speak now to a more republican, individualistic doctor out there about what is to change. how will america change to what

dr. reinhardt proposed? lawrence: i think we can actually do this. i have been talking about these proposals in congress and among the presidential campaigns. really enhance the one,dable care act, number and one of the things we are not talking about on the political scene yet, we shouldn't be talking about medicare for all because i don't think it is going to happen in the united states. would it be good? i think it is going to be great, but it isn't going to happen. what about medicare for children? it would be dirt cheap because kids are really healthy. it would help us in education. it would help parents. it seems to me it is a no-brainer. so i think we can fix the u.s. system.

it won't be as good as the european system, but it will be darn good. if we just doubled down on the kinds of programs that we actually have one now. jonathan: forgive me for making this a short one. in my conversations, which -- in my conversations, we talk about the return to normal. i just wonder what that looks like. to me that ioccurs actually know the answer, even if i didn't think i did. basically, the history tells us from the pandemic of 1918 and many others that it will probably have a two to three year duration, and then the virus won't go away. i would say we are six months into this, another year and a half i think we really start to pull ourselves out of it. it won't go away, but we will

have a vaccine that will be partially effective. we will of treatments, and some natural immunity. so we are going to learn to live with this virus, and that is what i think our future is going to be like. one of the things i want to end with, do you know what happened after the great influenza pandemic of 1918? 1920's.he roaring everyone got back together. jonathan: thank you for joining us, professor come on this economy and getting back to normal with this pandemic. it is a critical question, the returned to normal. tom: of course, the uproar this weekend will do it. with the experts we have talked to, it is very clear this going boosterset of vaccines, shots, however that works out.

the set up we have is to get into 2021. jonathan: equity futures positive in new york this morning. up next, alicia levine of bny mellon. that's coming up on bloomberg. ♪

♪ with an equity market near its high. >> it is very difficult to imagine when and how the fan is going to start hiking. never say never but we are looking many years into the future. >> i think we are slowing down and we're going to level off. announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance. >> good morning everyone.