francine: extending lending, the until emergency programs year-end to support the economy. washington stimulus talk stop. deutsche bank posts a small and the ceo talks about breaking even this year. the british bank warns of a challenging second half. we hear from jes staley. welcome to "bloomberg: surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. the markets are moving on a

couple of things. they are looking at numbers of infected across the world, but also the fed decision. stocks are struggling for direction. treasuries pretty steady. it is all about the fed, the policy meeting, and what they will give us in indications. in asia, modest gains in hong kong and south korea. they outperformed in china but low volumes. -- 1957.157 let's get straight to the first word news in london with laura wright. james: the uk's looking at ways to loosen its coronavirus quarantine rules after restrictions on trips prompted backlash. one possibility is abandoning blanket restrictions in favor of regional bands and another is reducing the time passengers arriving in britain need to stay in quarantine.

the u.k. and u.s. voiced concern about hong kong's election after a flurry of media reports the government is considering postponing the vote maybe for a whole year. hong kong's opposition argues the coronavirus outbreak is being used as an excuse to push off the pivotal election. william barr has defended himself against accusations he's politicized his position to help president donald trump. said theg remarks, he president had not attempted to interfere and said the president told him to make whatever call he thinks is right. some of the biggest names in the tech industry are to testify in the house today as part of a probe into digital competition. for jeff bezos, it will he be his first appearance before congress. kill strike an upbeat tone, telling lawmakers his company is an american success story. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

this is bloomberg. the fed extended seven of its nine emergency lending programs by three months to december 31 in its latest effort to boost the economy. the move comes ahead of the decision today that is widely expected to result in no significant policy changes. stimulus talks between president trump's team and democrats have stalled while senate majority leader mitch mcconnell insisted his plan for shielding organizations against lawsuits stemming from coronavirus cases should be included. his stancei said suggests he is not serious about reaching a deal. joining us is multi-asset strategist at societe generale. thank you for joining us. when you look at the markets today, they seem to be moving sideways but over the last month, they focus a bit on the stimulus, central banks. what is driving assets and equities right now? since mid-june, the cyclical

rotation that has been stopped short because of the worry on the second wave. i think what is driving markets recently is worries on whether the second wave will translate lockdown.er that will be significant in the q3 earnings season rather than this month. more importantly, ahead of u.s. elections, it is going to be important to know what kind of package will be pushed by president trump as well as joe biden in their campaign proposals. francine: where do you see the best value right now? it does look like companies and industries are doing well are also very expensive. i guess that really depends on the macro scenario you have.

investors are talking a lot about -- at this point at a time when equity positioning is not stretched. rather thanoutflows inflows at the start of -- since the start of the year. if you have an l-shaped scenario, investors will continue to buy growth and tech and their bond proxy. you if they are expensive, would rather buy this because they were perform well whichever the scenario. if you are more in a swoosh scenario, the second half of the year is value versus growth. does anything feel like bubble territory right now? is there anything that looks risky? sophie: what we are looking into at the moment is whether we have another tech bubble. something to keep in mind is

when you look at the ebit margins of the companies, it is way higher versus the rest of the u.s. equity market. even as you were mentioning there is all this antitrust, digital taxation, scrutiny, this could weigh on the tech sector. recoveryve a swoosh and this issue going on, it could constitute a trigger for the underperformance of nasdaq versus mid-caps in this context. francine: a lot of the focus today will be on a lot of the technology stocks and faang stocks because of hearings. what is the risk for faang stocks right now are in general technology stocks? that they are expensive or the regulation aspect? trigger, it would be more a regulatory aspect.

you have several things going on. digital tax, which is not on the u.s. -- so this is still ongoing. the regulatory side is much more on the antitrust at a time when the companies of the s&p represent 15% of u.s. gdp. it is unprecedented and really showing there is an issue going on, so i think the regulatory are more thes trigger rather than how expensive they are because how expensive they are is more in the macro economic context and you'll be ready to buy expensive bound economicr scenario. francine: what is the economic scenario we should be looking at right now? it seems there is a resurgence in case may be sooner than many people thought. are we going to be in this on-off, locked down quarantine

phase and what does that mean for valuations? does this transfer -- translate into another wave of lockdowns? it is not in our scenario. in the second half of the year. right now, it is on track if you look at the soft and hard data. if you have social distancing taking place and the fact it is translating to a generalized lockdown, it feels the global economy recovery will be protected, even if it is not going to be a v-shaped. having someext, growth makes sense because it will protect you in a deflation scenario or reflation scenario. francine: thank you so much. sophie huynh, multi-asset strategist at societe generale.

deutsche bank has reported the biggest gain in fixed-income trading in almost eight years. we've been speaking to the chief financial officer. thee are pleased with performance in our investment bank, which is up 52% ex-items. tradinghat, we have businesses, rates, fx, emerging markets which you have seen interrupt significantly year over year -- they are up significantly year-over-year. we have doubled our performance year-over-year for three straight quarters so very pleased with that performance. part of it is participating in a better market opportunities that have existed in the second quarter and we expect normalization of that, but you need to remember that in our case, we've been working to stabilize, grow the franchise, recover some market share and what we are pleased to see is underneath that how performance

the market environment that we've been in, we've seen really good franchise stabilization, engagement, and we think that bodes well for the future. >> you are expecting slightly higher revenue for the full year. is that not too conservative now given what we've seen in the first half? >> it would be a normalization relative to the first half, but an improvement on last year's second-half, especially in our businesses were a year ago, we were going to a restructuring and there was uncertainty around our people in franchise and with that behind us, we see momentum in the core business and we like to see a second-half performance well ahead of last year second-half but we'll see how the conditions evolve. as we know, we in a period of uncertainty and while that has led to revenue opportunities, it can lead to more muted markets.

>> you are looking at wirecard to see if there are any parts that are worth acquiring. so far, what you've seen, do you like what you've seen so far? >> i'll speak generally about heymans business. i don't want to comment on specific events in the marketplace, but payment is a big business for us across a number of segments and the corporate bank in particular is a large payments provider globally. we have been investing in our merchant services capabilities and will continue to pursue that. as we see opportunities in the marketplace, we may accelerate the growth in organically, but it would have to fit well with what we do, be additive to shareholders and we like how we are executing on that business organically. the other thing, we are able to do a lot in partnerships so you may have seen a few days ago, we

thatted in the company does supply chain financing capabilities so it adds to what we can do for our clients, sometimes in partnership. we are pleased with the opportunities as well as the prospects to grow our business. >> would wirecard fit the pattern you just described? james: it is hard to tell. merchant services is a business they were in, and is one where we feel there is room for us to grow, but i don't want to comment on any specific developments. francine: that was the deutsche bank chief financial officer james von moltke. stay with bloomberg for full coverage of today's fed decision. don't miss our report that senokot p.m. london time. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, and politics. this is this is bloomberg. i'm francine lacqua in london. the u.k.-based firm provides engineering solutions for oil and gas, power, and industrial markets but also says the continued uncertainty means forward guidance is withdrawn. john stanton is the chief executive of weir group. i know these are uncertain times. your oil unit, where do you see the bottom for that given the oversupply at the moment? john: good morning.

business had a difficult first half of the year , focused as we are on north american shale which is a difficult market conditions and we think it probably is on the bottom at the moment and likely to continue to be challenging over the balance of the year. february, weed in are intending to exit this business at the right moment and our long-term strategy is to become a mining technology, which is already 80% of revenues and where we see a bright future in terms of our growth prospects. cancine: can you tell us -- you give us a bit more on the timeline or what your options would be for the oil unit? to exit attent is the right time, when we can get

the best value for the business. we've been active over the last few months talking to industry partners to understand the level of interest and preparing the identifyso when we do a good buyer for the business, we are ready to move quickly to do that. the market is challenging in terms of those conditions at the moment and north american shale principally. we would like to be a blue move quickly, but that depends on how our discussions develop with potential buyers from here. it is not impossible we will sell in the short term but it may take a bit longer. francine: talking about minerals, it was pretty resilient in the first half. what were the commodities that drove that result specifically? are our mining businesses

involved in the us traction and production -- extraction and production of minerals, the principal ones being copper, gold, and iron ore. minerals has those been relatively robust over the course of the last few months, so we've really benefited from the fact that mining has been designated an essential industry. in most countries, mines have been allowed to produce notwithstanding other covid-19 restrictions. we've been a central supplier to that industry so revenues have been resilient, only down slightly on what was a record year last year with strong topline. our margins have been consistent as well and stronger in the escrow division. notwithstanding all the challenges of the last few months, the profits generated

from our mining equipment businesses have been roughly flat year on year so that's an incredible performance in circumstances that have had many economies and industries impacted and goes to the strength of our go forward strategy which is around purchasing these businesses in the future. francine: a lot of your mining business relates to services. walkou give us context or us through how you think customer access difficulties have been impacted by covid-19? jon: the majority of what we do is provide spares and aftermarket services between , it is roughly 80% of as long as mines are continuing to produce copper or gold, they are going to need spare parts from weir to keep

producing. keptact most mines have concentrate means demand has been very strong for our equipment. we've had to do a lot to figure aroundnts and service the world to make sure we can keep going and look after our people and have the right ppe and we can think of our operations to maintain hygiene and social distancing. a lot of people talk about working from home. we have pipelines and office workers doing that but we've got a thousand people in boundaries around the world who continue to go to work with those new ways of working to ensure we can serve customers. that's the beauty of our business model. we are incredibly resilient and as long as our customers keep producing, which they tend to do through the cycle, we have to be

there to support them, keep them going. that has underpinned the resilience in the first half of the year. francine: thank you so much. jon stanton, chief executive of weir group. we need to spend a bit of time talking about diversity. topng up, more from european banking executives, including jes staley a barclays. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg: surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. my and a loter all of shorts will be questioned by the bundestag about the role in the wirecard scandal. the special session will be held behind closed doors. we'll get unemployment figures for june at 1:00 p.m. the country's been hit hard by the pandemic and the bosses of amazon and apple are due to address a government panel. chief executives are appearing together for the first time before lawmakers and it is decision day. to the fed, fomc expected keep interest rates near zero and repeat guidance they'll stay that way until the economy is back on track. plenty more on the fed, we'll have plenty more on the markets.

also coming up, and impressive beat for drink makers. we will talk with the companies chief executive. apparently we've all been drinking at home more. one of the questions will be about wholesalers and when he expects a bit more of it back to normal drinking habit. i'm looking forward to that conversation. this is bloomberg. ♪ save hundreds on your wireless bill

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francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. now let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news with laura wright. laura: stimulus talks are getting bogged down. mitch mcconnell's plan is to thatde shields from shields for businesses. noty pelosi says he is serious about reaching a deal. the reset -- the federal reserve has extended most of his lending by three months. we will have a policy decision later today. investors are on the lookout for any specific guidance on the path of rates. the u.k. is looking for ways to loosen its quarantine rules as restrictions on two wrist from on tourists from spain. idea is reducing the time passengers from britain stay in quarantine.

global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more this is countries, bloomberg. francine? campari has reported first have sales for percent above estimates. company reported an 11% drop in organic revenue as increasing home sales make up for a slump of sales in bars and restaurants. of come paricutive group joins us. thank you for giving us of the bit of your busy schedule. when you look at the revenue, how much does that link to tourism? was important for us -- we past to recruit have put emphasis on the various hotspots in the mediterranean. i don't think we are going to

get that this year. having said that, we exhibited quite well for me marketing standpoint, moving on to virtual events and activations in italy, and that seems to be working. francine: the digital thing -- i was reading some of the things, apple was one of the best selling products in the u.k., even head of toilet paper, we're redoing some of the research on that. because you are now online, what did you learn about selling directly online? all, our online sales are growing triple digits. -- to bringdo the the world of the brand into it, and once you do that, you tie it up also with educational initiatives, where you help consumers. then you finish the deal. danger --is there a

you have done exceptionally well at getting people to make cocktails at home. does it mean that further down the road you have to offer discounts? is that one of the biggest concerns you are looking at? bob: i don't think so. at the end of the day, you've cost ofemember that the a cocktail is up a quarter from what -- there is not much pressure. francine: traditionally, i know you spent quite a lot of cash and lot on marketing to get the brand in faces where people go to the beach. has covid-19 impacted that? bob: yes, we have canceled all activations on beaches come etc.. there is not much we can do about that. but everybody still carries a mobile phone with them, and we can reach them effectively that way. francine: what does it mean to

that brand. bob: that brand is online at the i fixedand we are -- myself a grand margarita to celebrate the results. we are growing at solid double in the u.s., which is the largest number. francine: how cautious should be be on wholesaler restocking? where in -- when do you see that happening? how difficult is it to gauge when wholesalers will be back? bob: wholesalers are buying but they are buying less than they would have in the past and driving down there spot. it is normal in this environment. 25% in mind that about 20%,

is reopened, which creates a credit issue, and collectible issues for wholesalers. so they have to maximize cash generation, and they are doing that. francine: amongst all your products, what can you tell us -- this isagne something that you bought recently. is there going to be less demand for champagne as people have less celebrations face-to-face? bob: that is what we are seeing. the champagne market is expected to decrease about 100 million bottles this year. having said that, we bought the brand for the long-term. in restaurants and really high-end bottle shops. it is a small volume brand, and we think that in this environment we can grow it.

francine: how much can you grow it? bob: we will see. we closed the deal in the middle of june, so we are getting to know the operational little bit better. behink double-digit should feasible. said you you recently see large-scale growth in your industry. with covid delay that? bob: i think covid-19 will probably make a lot of brand -- clearly if you are part of a well diversified portfolio, which is well balanced between the on premise and off premise, you know, you have a much better chance at weathering the financial crisis coming out of it. francine: we talked a lot about diversity, especially in the last six months.

what have you learned about diversity and how do you look at it different for come pari -- for campari? bob: diversity for campari is not your regular diversity, where people think about sexual orientation, religion, gender. we also see it in terms of diversity of thought and diversity of style, and that his bennett invented -- that has benefited us during the lockdown because we were able to interconnect all the great brains we have in the company virtually and come out of it and make the best out of it. francine: will it change? will it change your view on the more traditional ways of measuring diversity? are there any efforts to do on that? how do you measure it? clearly asthat, and the company is growing and becoming more international, it is becoming much more diverse. fast -- long way in the

in the past 10 to 15 years. we pay particular attention to diversity of thought. francine: when you look at can power a, what have you learned about campari during the lockdown? bob: you made the campari brand? francine: yes. bob: the lockdown has surprisingly benefited the brand because it's number one cocktail , people were consuming in the on premise without necessarily knowing the main component on which the cocktail is built is campari. as i like to say, no campari, no negra oni. we've manage that through educational efforts, and wheat talk consumers to make their own and we see it accelerating nicely. forcine: thank you so much

joining us today, the chief of campari group. we are getting breaking news out of hong kong. second quarter gdp coming down 9%. the estimate was -8.3%, so it is worse than expected. covid-19,being hit by before that hit aggressively by protests. since we had that security law being imposed by china. sanofi and glaxosmithkline agreed to supply the u.k. with up to 16 million doses with their coronavirus vaccine. we will bring you the latest on that. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." sanofi and picasso smithkline have agreed to supply the u.k. with up to 16 million doses with their -- and glaxosmithkline have agreed to supply the u.k. with up to 16 million doses of their coronavirus vaccine. for more on this, bloomberg's intelligence's senior pharmaceutical analyst. reports the results this morning. what was your key take away from that? sam: good morning, francine. the results were a little lackluster to our eyes. on the surface it looks like they raised guidance, but that is entirely due to an exceptional gain they made with stake, inf an equity regeneron, a u.s. biotech

company. without that, the quarter would have been a miss, and the guidance is lower than the extra gain they made on the equity. so they have actually on the line guide reduced it a little bit. great.particularly but obviously the overshadowing element here is the fact that they have got this deal with the u.k. government. francine: how big a deal is this? is it the right thing for governments to spend that much money? there is no guarantee that this will come up to anything, right? sam: is a very good question. i don't know how much they spent, number one, and never to come if it is like the deal that pfizer did with the u.s. government, it is contingent on the successful completion of a phase three trial, and the delivery of 100 million doses. so this is not free money being handed out. these are come in this case, i'm

pretty sure it is also contingent on delivery -- these are, in this case, i'm pretty sure it is also contingent on delivery. francine: we will get an update from sam throughout the day. barclays traders had a good second quarter. the bank security division reported a 60% gain in foreign-exchange rates and credit trading revenue. the letter also took a 1.6 billion chart and pay back loans from the crisis, slightly higher than expected, bringing the total to 3.7 billion. here is what chief executive jes staley had to say. : clearly the has been an extraordinary contraction globally but picture early in the u.s., and the u.k., our two principal markets. we have taken a sizable reserve, 3.6 billion pounds for the first half, including the 1.6 billion

pounds in the second quarter. the vast majority of that are derived by our risk models, where we put economic forecast into those models. future unemployment rates, future gdp rates, spend growth, etc., and those models produce those impairment numbers. we think we have been conservative to build proper impairment reserves. let's see how the economy particularly in the u.k. at the u.s. unfolds in the next couple of quarters. we like the comfort of having strong impairment numbers, yet at the same time maintaining profitability for the bank. your investment banking business, fixed income 30%,%, equities trading up estimates 3%. and barclays keep this up? you know, we have had i

think very good performance in our markets business over the last couple of years, including the last couple of quarters. like all the banks that are haveting thus far commented on, the volatility in the first two quarters were quite exceptional this year. people are expecting a degree of normalization. our fixedtioned, with income credit and currency trading up 60% in the second quarter, then up 80% for the first half overall, i think we are gaining market share. we want to stay open and clients, for our insurance companies, pension funds, that underscore the capital markets. but i think what we are seeing an a lot of of regulatory changes over the last decade. if you go back to the crisis of 2008, 2009, it was based on bank

balance sheets getting into trouble. what i think governments have properly done, they have moved the focus of financing economic growth from banks to the capital markets, to companies issuing debt and equity into firms like pension funds and buying those securities. that is really the story, i think, of the first and second quarter, the resurgence of the capital markets led by massive amounts of liquidity provided by central banks. that has proved to be a fairly constructive response to the pandemic and the consequential economic crisis. >> i wanted to ask you about the defendant. the report says there will be discussions about it. are you talking to the regulator about bringing the dividend back? i think what we have all settled on, and i think the decision around the dividend earlier on in this year, given the enormous economic uncertainty we all faced is understandable. we don't know what the second half is ultimately going to mean

for the economies and for the bank itself. i think the current program, to move out to the fourth quarter of 2020 discussions about dividend payments in 2021 is prudent. so we will have those discussions with our board first and foremost, but then also with our regulators. i think we are going to leave it to toward the end of the year to try to make a determination as to reinstating our dividends next year or not. was jes staley, chief executive of barclays, speaking to us earlier. coming up, the bank of greece govern he sees a major boost from a historic rescue plan. don't miss that exclusive interview. that is coming up next, and this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. greece's central sees a major used to the greek economy from the european union's historic rescue fund this month. yannis stournaras spoke exclusively to bloomberg from athens.

there is not a lot of visibility now, so i would thisate to make a guess at point. it will not be small, but it will not be large. that is the estimate we have. >> today the european bank extended the banks to pay dividends until at least -- do you think that this decision will make investors more aware, is it in the right direction? yannis: yes, it is in the right direction. conservations to of capital buffers, and i think it is good for investors. theo you see the need for extending of the measure in 2021? that will depend on the evolution of the pandemic. the risks are on the downside, so let's wait and see.

>> are you afraid of a second wave of the pandemic? yannis: maybe yes. and the last four days, we have one million cases worldwide. so perhaps we are in the second round already. in certain areas of the world. >> following the e.u. decision on the recovery fund, to what extent is the best role for the ecb? it is good for monetary policy because the policy makes more balanced -- monetary policy, it is not almighty. it has a very positive contribution, but it needed the reaction of fiscal policy as well. so now we have fiscal policy on the national side but also at the european level, which is very positive. that temporary, but i hope

it will become permanent. at some point. this is a step in the right direction. perhaps it is a harbinger for more changes in the future, like the completion of the banking union. banking union, what else could be the next step? ritika: for the -- for the banking union, we need to establish the european scheme, and then perhaps we should look for safe dependent -- a dependable fiscal tool for the sake of europe. >> it hasn't caught on so far. do you still think that the rise will be that large that there needs to be a european public-sector solution?

and if the bank has not materialized, what will happen? yannis: i think we should look at the banking sector problems closer. for greece, we have a very large volume of nps, which is about 37% of total loans. so greece is a rather separate case here. for all other member states, the legacy volume is much smaller. is true that, it we are preparing an asset management company to facilitate the solution of the large volume of nps. the way we plan to do it will be a win-win situation. it will be positive for all shareholders. the banks, the state, and the -- greece's that was central bank governor, yannis

stournaras. he has set up testing facility at terminal 2, according to chief executive. it is also saying they have had more engagement from the governor on covid testing in general. they are saying that they set up testing facilities and they could start in early september if the u.k. gives them the go-ahead. "bloomberg surveillance" continues in the next hour. tom keene joins me from new york. don't miss our set -- special coverage from 7:00 a.m. london time. we will look at the markets and we will look at treasuries. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: extending lending. the fed prolongs seven of its nine emergency programs until year end in its latest effort to

support the economy. washington stimulus talks stall. trading boost. deutsche bank posts a small profit after its best fic performance in almost eight years. the cfo tells us the lender is working towards breaking even this year. and profit at barclays plunges. the british bank warns of a challenging second half of 2020. we'll hear from the chief this is "bloomberg surveillance, everyone. francine lacqua in london. tom keene is in new york. we are looking forward to special fed coverage to give us an indication of what markets are focusing on, and then we will focus on tech stocks. tom: let's do a tech stock -- the tech stock rally today -- i would particularly watch mr. bezos of amazon. the 2:00 p.m. discussion with chairman powell, michael mckee will be on top of that for us. caroline hyde leading fed coverage. all i can say is the meetinis