francine: high-tech -- amazon, apple, facebook, and alphabet top expectations as people increasingly rely on their products during lockdown. record slump -- france and germany suffer their sharpest gdp contractions on record. we're expecting more dismal european data later this in a couple of seconds. and bnp paribas reports a blowout performance in fixed-income trading, leading all but one of the large wall street banks. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene is in new york. shrinking 12.1% in the second quarter matches the estimates that we have been speaking to. italy was ugly but better than expected, so it does seem that when you look at the overall picture, inflation, that inflation rate coming in at 0.4 percent, that is higher, a touch higher than expected. tom: this is economic data, and we need to do what we do at bloomberg, which is explained the way they quote gdp data in

europe is different than america. the 12% number is equivalent to number yesterday in the united states. it is showing tension in europe as well. friday --low on this is it absolutely extraordinary? francine: i feel like we have not had a quiet newsday on a friday in quite some time. .e had quite a lot of earnings quite a lot of politics with the latest declarations by president trump, and there is just quite a lot overall in geopolitics as well, so we will get through that in a second. that's get to the first word news with ritika gupta. ritika: good morning, francine, tom, senate public is want to go on the record saying they tried to restore supplemental jobless benefits to millions of americans. mitch mcconnell is trying to force a debate on a stopgap measure for those $600 a week checks. democrats want the jobless but onlyextended, too,

as part of a larger relief package. president trump is coming under pressure to setting national strategy for the coronavirus. the white house has largely avoided strict rules to unlock the plan. experts say that has made shortages of protective gear at hospitals worse. it could complicate distribution of vaccines. in the ok, prime minister boris johnson's government has reimposed lockdown restrictions on millions of people. authorities targeted a large part of northern england. they say people there failed to follow social distancing measures, and that led to a spike in coronavirus cases. people in greater length check -- greater manchester, like a nort, and yorkshire will longer be able to meet with others. results from apple, amazon, facebook, and alphabet show the industry is capitalizing on the coronavirus crisis. consumers are using gadgets and

the internet more to the tune of $2.4 billion come and the net income of 29 billion in the fourth quarter. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. francine? tom? tom: the news flow is absolutely extraordinary. instead of bringing it to a complete halt, we will give it to you throughout surveillance today. futures are up. you see it elevated in the technology stocks. moments ago, joseph feldman advised that his price target, which he raised a week ago from 3200 to 3600 on amazon, chelsea advisory group now goes to 4000 on amazon. that is an extra ordinary statistic and i'm sure we will see more on that today. jim suber raises apple as well. equities are up, nasdaq is going to be up like a moonshot.

what i would really focus on is yields. the two year yield, we broke .11%, and we had a moment where we were .1093. that is truly extraordinary, and you see an equivalent in the fx market. francine, you've got to tell me how you are going to afford a euro of 1.1854. francine: sorry, tom, we are not traveling anymore. european shares gaining. i think there is a lot of good feeling out there on the markets about these stellar earnings from american tech giants, and that just seems to be lifting sentiment in general. we did have some pretty bad economic data and news about the research and virus, but you are right, you can see treasuries 1970g higher, gold above dollars an ounce. you did something brilliant

there, which is you did not look at the yield, but you looked at the price in the bond markets. i would suggest, francine, through this week -- and erik nielsen can talk about this -- we have seen a shift to the frenzy just to buy the paper. it is not about yield, it is about price. francine: let's get straight to erik nielsen. thank you so much for joining us. there is a lot going on in the market overall. are we better off now than we were a month ago because of the e.u. repair every plant, or -- recovery plan, or do you have real concerns about what is happening in the u.s.? erik: good morning. i think we are better off for the simple fact that they approved the trust at least in europe. we are optimistic that we get a general lockdown. i am worried about the u.s., and i'm more worried about the emerging markets, where the pandemic seems to be close to out of control. therere is a real big -- is a huge question mark on the

gdp for everybody. francine: with risk to the downside, or actually could it also be better than expected? yeah, compared to our forecast, i think the answer is that things are looking a little bit better. if the numbers we have published today and yesterday, they want to quote it, if they remain as they are being printed now, which they probably will because it is so is -- so difficult for the statistical offices decimate. -- two estimate. it is still -- we are coming off that trough, and that is good news. spin offke a positive the fact that we have detailed daily or hourly monitoring of

the pandemic throughout europe, so you see localized shutdowns. that is for the economy and for health. tom: let's triangulate right now. we have sterling out to 1.31, euro exploding, 1.15 up to 1.18 stronger euro. it is all a bit confusing. is the euro moving too quickly for mr. mccraw, ms. merkel, and the rest? erik: i don't think policymakers like quick moves in anything, to be honest, so i think this is moving a bit faster, and certainly we thought -- you know, tom, i think the conversation i have had with our investors in america, has again and again over the last few weeks been positive with europe because we have a bit of a -- a collective word to come through

this in contrast to the u.s. and we have handled the pandemic in europe that are, and then prices on equities are a lot cheaper in europe. so it was written in the stars, i think, that euro-dollar has to move higher. francine.a banner, astrology with erik nielsen. you are an optimist. i want you to get out front of the reinvestments to q3 and q4 in the united states. the numbers yesterday were horrific. does unicredit america's -- do you feel that that is repeatable, or do you just assume a rebound in u.s. gdp? rebound, but some i really worry about the numbers in america because either you in the worstdowns affected states, and that impacts the whole u.s. or with lockdowns for critical reasons that people don't want

to do it, people get nervous. these early indicators come you can see that people get nervous, they don't go out. so it will have an impact. when you look at the forecast for the end of the year into next year, i am worried. , new york city is shut down. we are doing seamless with grubhub and the rest of it from mcdonald's. erik: well, that is good for mcdonald's but not good for anybody else, probably. tom: francine, have you ever been to mcdonald's? francine: we are italian, tom, tomy mother would go mcdonald's for the fries as a treat. so as a child, mcdonald's was a five-star restaurant. it was twice a year, and there was a festivity around it. and you look at asian economies,

are they on a much better footing? i'm hearing more and more investors say that real value right now is in china. well, on the economics, yes. but at the same side come at the same time that we have this big debate about the pandemic and the shutdown, we also have a real acceleration in the tension between america and china, with sanctions and lockdowns and aggression. so i think you have to be really careful when you go into china right now because this has become political. americaan election in in november, and god knows what trump is going to do between now and then. the chinese people are not going to take this lying down. i worry about that a lot, and also with europe being caught in the middle. i am a little bit reluctant. i would not buy into china right now. francine: eric, thank you so

much. erik nielsen of unicredit stays with us. we will try to maybe go back to mcdonald's, with tom's and put this money. hour, andin the next interview at 6:00 a.m. in new york, 11:00 a.m. in london. and this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." we were having a good conversation about some of the economic prospects around the world. let's get back to erik nielsen from unicredit. we are talking about the asian economies. how do you see the pandemic affecting those? are we just going to see a

difference because of the u.s., we seem to find -- to struggle to find a stimulus bill, but in china they can do as much as they want? don't know if they can do as much as they want, but it certainly doesn't get caught in china between the political parties. america is special now because of the election, and the divisive resident that they have. but you see in -- and the divisive president that they have. but you see in places, in italy now, we are waiting for the big european package to materialize into cash. the economies in asia, in europe, in america, they all need more stimulus because we sector,e debt in the and to get the economy back on its footing, i'm convinced we need to get more fiscal incentives to push it forward. tom: i want you to give me a number here on the gdp number coming out, yesterday to today.

what we are in in q3 and q4, the backdrop is mr. walsh, who has a little experience at iag -- he is in the middle of his call right now with 1400 bodies out the door. he says, erik, misguided to consider cello crisis temporary. are we misguided in thinking there will be a recovery into 2021? erik: no, i think that -- you will get a recovery almost certainly. it is impossible to think that we don't shove off from these very low levels. but two very important things -- i don't think anybody really realistically should think that the levels of gdp by the end of 21 he won will be back -- at the end of 2021 will be back at precrisis levels. tom: this is so important because of time. if we are looking at a level

analysis and we don't get back to our levels, do you just assume that we retest a zero bound, in the u.k. and the united states, and they have to reconsider interest rates, negative interest rates? erik: absolutely right. you keep the pedal to the metal. if it goes negative, i doubt it, in america, but to be down here, you probably have more qe, you get more physical and more monetary stimulus. i think it is a given all the way through next year. francine: how much more monetary stimulus? is there a limit to what they can do? erik: there is no limit to what policymakers will do. i think the guiding principle you want to think about is, it is now fiscal policy and that is good because it will be better that way, and then the monetary authorities will do whatever it takes to prevent that additional public borrowing to finance it

from tightening of the monetary condition. so they would buy basically the incremental issuance as a rough guide. this is the way you want to think about it, at least the way i think about it. tom: erik nielsen, thank you for the key phrase "incremental." it is interesting to see these conference calls in sectors where technology is booming. that is not the case in british airways. it is, iag. mr. walsh out with comments. he makes it clear, 1400 voluntary redundancies among some of the struggles right now. he is looking out to 2021, and it is a challenge. this is an extraordinary day on technology and on the bond markets and the foreign exchange markets, what you need to know. u.s., lower, the two-year .1093. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." it is an extra ordinary day. daniel ives will join us in the next hour. he has been dead on in the enthusiasm for technology. right now with a broader view, matthew bloxham's with bloomberg intelligence and we talk here about these conference calls. right now i have citigroup out to 450. that is pre-split on apple. and joe feldman down to 4000 this morning on amazon as well. comment important

heard was from mr. cook, where he knows what is coming, and he said we are not a zero-some game where we are taking -- zero-s um game. do you buy that technology is additive? it isyou know, i think overall, and i think every year there is some new innovation. period, markets being created, clearly it does have some impact on the legacy. tom: the pandemic is here and the massive question is what is seasonally and off quarter. what is your reading of all the literature on the persistency of these rates of change that are excellent?

matt: i think some of these clearly, amazon is the --ndout, with the amount of people had already been shifting in big volumes to online, and i think the way amazon has handled the pandemic, improving delivery times, i think it is just going to push more and more people that direction. there are smaller brands with these direct to consumer brands. there has been a lot of traction --h people buying everything i think the direct connection between consumer and producer is up 11%,making facebook a lot of that is driven by instagram, where these smaller businesses can reach directly and sell to consumers. -- does: does it mean

it support the evaluations that people are questioning in some of these stocks? matt: i think it does. there is a lot of growth priced into these stocks for sure, but i think when you come out with numbers, the way these businesses did, then yes, there is a pandemic boost there. all these businesses operating incredibly well and also there is a huge amount of focus on the platforms. and i think this is reinforcing that. as long as they continue to be dominant, there is not disruption by regulatory and antitrust measures, that i think they are on a great growth track. francine: do you have regulatory concerns? are any of these in danger of being broken up? i would be surprised if it

came to that. i think all of these big players are being given a lot of opportunity to adjust how they operate kind of softening things around the edges, and i think they will do enough to kind of head off those kinds of really big risks. ok, but the are risk is there for sure. tom: matthew bloxham, thank you so much. we will dive into tech with a real fervor in the 6:00 hour, and then with jon ferro and lisa abramowicz later this morning. we are looking forward to getting an update on dan ives, as everyone recalibrate on the moves down the income statement, and the ability to generate cash as well. in the bond market, there is a stunning statistic that the united states two-year yield is in positive .1093. that has moved seismically over

this week. that is a huge deal. digits, .1093. .1093.le digits, price up, you'll down. fulbright out near $2000 an ounce. -- gold right out near $2000 announce. and leon panetta with david westin, really looking forward to this. i think you could go with mr. pennetta this morning, you could have about a two hour conversation, and maybe baby it weston -- maybe david westin will do that. this is bloomberg. ♪ businesses are starting to bounce back.

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second quarter. the chief executive of the makers largest cosmetics remains optimistic about the second half. the share price is up today, and he spoke to bloomberg earlier on in paris. definitely i am pretty confident for the second half, first because i think the appetite for beauty is strong. it is always strong. noter two, i think we will see the same type of lockdowns, confinement that we experienced because it has been proven that it is devastating for the economy. so i don't think we will see it again. third, very important, e-commerce has really grown tremendously along this crisis. it grew 5% on the

first half, but in june it was growing 80%. a very good alternative for consumption. >> i am working from home, and i put a little bit of makeup today. that has become the exception rather than the rule. did you actually believe it is the end of an era and there is going to be a deep, lasting downturn? i don't think so it all. i am happy to see that you are wearing some makeup, and people are more and more, even when people are more and more wearing theyp again, more so than used to before. consumption, we see consumption secondly,again, and we all hope that you would not be obliged to work from home for

the rest of your life. so there will be a day where you will, with a vaccine or treatment or something where you will be able to go out, i am betting that this day you will wear a lot of makeup because you will want to celebrate your return to the real life. tom: very good. l'oreal there. i am looking at myself this money, and i this think -- i just think that i need elena rubenstein aging and brightening. i needs deep renewing -- francine: you need a serum, tom. tom: yeah, i need a serum. you do this. ly thing?he rol francine: i use everything, tom. serums. what people don't spend on

makeup, tv anchors are probably making up for it because we are on the air so much. news, thefirst word always beautiful ritika gupta. tom.a: thanks, senate majority leader mitch mcconnell is moving to force a debate on a stopgap bill to extend supplemental and limit benefits. millions of americans will no longer get those $600 weekly checks. democrats are opposed to the stopgap bill. they want the jobless measure to be part of a larger stimulus package. china's economy sped up this month, the official gauge of growth in the second half as factor output is recovering. the nonmanufacturing index dropped slightly, but construction is booming. economists have revised up there -- they see china's economy expanding to percent this year. florida posted his third straight day of record deaths from the coronavirus. the state reported 253 fatalities. arizona also set a record for

deaths in california -- a record for deaths, and california reported second deadliest day. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i'm ritikauntries, gupta. this is member. francine? tom? . tom: thanks so much. one of the great truisms is reporting as earned. stephen engle is without question the most profound reporters that we see in northern asia, and frankly down the pacific rim, to his hong kong. the edge was so popular that there is now going to be a redux, and we are thrilled that we will see tonight the edge on hong kong. stephen engle joins us now. what we are seeing right now is young people that want to run for office are being told they cannot. that is not a democracy, is it?

stephen: know, and in the basic law, china did agree that the ultimate aim for hong kong is universal suffrage, however, they have not achieved that. elections, council 30 seats are directly elected. four years ago, about six pro-democracy candidates were disqualified because of their various platforms that countered what beijing said was the basic law or that the right of china's sovereignty over hong kong. now we are getting news last night that 12 pro-democracy candidates, possibly even more, have been disqualified. that really is a blow to the pro-democracy camp here come the they're they were -- hoping to ride the wave of the pro-democracy demonstrations last year.

the local newspaper here is will be ane announcement of a postponement for the election scheduled next month. tom: we will have that through the morning. it is not hong kong on the edge two, it is actually you with hong kong on the edge 15 with your coverage. how quickly is this story moving for the everyday person of hong kong? me, this is one everybody's lips right now. there is a third wave of the coronavirus outbreak, and restaurants are shut down and certain lockdowns, but nothing compared to what many of you in the united states have been going through for the last couple of months. but combined with the third wave of the coronavirus, and now we have been under this national security law for a month, and we are all debating how far will the trump administration go in revoking the number of different trade advantages that the united states bestows on hong kong? what will be the lasting

ramifications? will the dollar peg here go away. most people say that would be unlikely because it would damage u.s. interests here and around the world. but it is about the people's rights and freedoms under the constitution. this national security law come in place for a month, overrides many of the tenets of the basic law, and that is the concern here. francine: who is running hong kong right now? is it beijing? stephen: you could say that. nominal leader on the day to day basis is still if exec of carrie lam. but you just have to look back to may when the national people's congress, the legislature in china, past the security law. they also made new hardline leaders at the liaison office in hong kong as well as the overall -- the- the overarching hardliners are in place, and they are on the committee to

oversee national security in hong kong. carrie lam, the chief executive, she reports directly to those new hardliners. so you could say, yes, beijing is calling the shots, especially at this time of turmoil in hong kong. francine: we look at back to stephen engle shortly, and follow on the comments on carrie lam. our chief north asia correspondent, tune into his one hour special called "hong kong on edge 2." and fantastic documentary. york, 12:00 new a.m. in london, and then it will air throughout the weekend. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." we have had a big week for european bank earnings where the regis -- the region's largest lenders are taking from investment banks and -- we are delighted to welcome on bloomberg surveillance, philip drury. we are delighted to be joined by a bloomberg wall street correspondent. hello to you both. thank you for joining us. let me start with possible consolidation amongst european banks. we have been waiting for it and waiting and waiting. what is the catalyst? going to think you are be waiting a little bit longer. we thought that earnings from european banks were quite constructive. notwithstanding the cost of credit, which is something

shared among all banks, given the uncertainty of covid. we thought that those banks particularly with capital markets activity showed strength in the second quarter. having said that, covid is unpredictable, as we have heard this morning. the outlook is uncertain. i think the real stress test for the european banks will come later in the fourth quarter, and also 2021. the catalyst of consolidation are several. banking is a skill business. also the movements into digital may well result in combinations. we believe domestically, it is easier, and we will see greater flux ability with regard to antitrust -- greater flexibility with regard to antitrust. think we will be waiting longer. tom: this is a next ordinary day for modern technology. it bordering on the idea of the announcements within the pandemic from the technology giants, it borders on a miracle.

how far behind is your world? how far behind in innovation, and the capitalistic experience of amazon, apple, -- apple, and the rest of them for some how far behind is the rest? philip: beyond the global forums, i don't think it is my world or your world, i think it is very much global. this adviceve seen on the combination of -- we talked about european champions. i do believe that europe has some inspiring entrepreneurs and some great technology. i think we will see combinations such as the classifieds from last week to create european champions to compete with the u.s. tech giants. seeart of the ability to big deals moving forward --

really depend on the money they can get to do those deals? a lot of the first quarter, we saw write-downs and loan provisioning for risky loans and m&a deals. what is the risk for citigroup and the rest of the industry moving forward in the second half of the year? >> you see a tremendous rally in credit. and also in the high-yield markets. so the five year bond market has been quite active. the leverage loan market has been slower to recover. if we look at levels today, they are tighter than they were in april and in may. we have seen a couple of transactions that have been absorbed within the market. and obviously it depends on the credit quality, it depends on the company set by ability moving forward to be resilient in an uncertain covid environment.

depending on the sector, the credit quality, the risk appetite will be there. >> earlier this week i spoke with one of your rivals at deutsche bank and he said this quarter and this year we can expect $5 billion to $10 billion large-scale private equity deals coming back again now that we have some of this out-of-the-way and some of the loan markets coming back. do you think that is the right assessment, or do you still have caution in this market? is a reasonable assessment. it is a challenging quarter. we have obviously got all of this, and a lot of the world, it is vacation time, and it will be interesting to see what august delivers this year because we are in extra ordinary times. i think everyone is going to be very much focused and monitoring and working this august. a significant lbo since covid.

i've it equity has a lot of cash to put to work. and there is a lot of equity infusion opportunities, whether that be sovereign wealth funds. upould agree, once you pick an activity, no doubt in the second half, whether it is the third quarter, let's see. >> what are people still concerned about? we are coming off the whole week in the u.s. where the tech giants are getting grilled, but also beating earnings expectations. what is the sentiment in europe right now about big deals? are there concerns that they can get done with the regulatory overhang? relativelythings are optimistic. against the backdrop of tremendous uncertainty. you know, we see that, we think about this crisis and how it has wereed, the initial stages bank-led lending, and we can see that has really calmed down and

there is the request of liquidity for our clients. have had record volumes in bond issuance in the first half of the year. we are seeing large equity deals being absorbed in the marketplace, particularly in the united states. i think there is a level of confidence in the financing market. as i said, we advised on the ebay classifieds. ig,id cross-border with an and we advised on the telephonic 02 u.k. consolidation play. there are large deals. they are not at the same frequency, but we believe they will increase going forward. tom: thank you so much. the markets today are absolutely extraordinary. there is no other way to put it. the yield market is really original.

the 30 year bond with a vengeance has come in this week .o 1.18% i have not had time to look at the negative interest rates over in europe. on the equity markets, jon kyl of on technology. he is at credit suisse. it will be a needed update at the top of the 8:00 a.m. hour. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

pres. trump: i don't want a delay. i want an election. but i don't want to wait three month and find out the ballots are missing and the election doesn't mean anything. i don't want to see a crooked election. this election will be the most rigged election in history if that happens. tom: perhaps more than any time in his administration, the kick yesterday off those comments expected, but are from republicans, it is extorting every. what everyone is worried about as we enter august is this gdp

and this crisis. artan schenker is with us, our chief content officer -- martin schenker is with us, our chief content officer. what is stunning to me is what is not in the newspapers. not on the cover of the washington post, not on the cover of the new york times, not on the cover of berg, and that is there is nothing on stimulus -- of bloomberg, and that is there is nothing on stimulus negotiations. why is that? marty: it is because the republicans in the senate cannot really agree on what they want to negotiate about. mitch mcconnell himself admits 20 republicans are ready to vote no on any stimulus bill. so if the republicans cannot get their act together, how are they going to negotiate with democrats? tom: are you assuming with the reporting of our team that x million of americans try to get through this weekend understanding that the check cannot be cached monday? marty: i think that that is the

stark truth that we are confronting, and it may debt it is made even starker by the imris yesterday, which were made even starker by the numbers yesterday, which were historic, as everybody knows. shrinkage in the context of unemployment benefits ending, and the senate going home, it is quite amazing. the last marti, for four years, president trump has had little to no opposition from his own party. why is this different, and what does it mean for the upcoming election? marty: by this you mean the suggestion to delay the election? francine: the fact that -- yeah, and the stimulus. arey: i do think that there a number of people in the republican party, the senate, who are looking at the polls and realizing if they continue to tie themselves to this president, they may lose their seats.

so they are beginning to re-examine whether or not supporting the president is wise for their own personal political prospects, and that is what you are seeing. francine: is that going to increase as we get into november? more real opposition from republicans? numbers don'tpoll change, and as you know, donald trump disputes the poll numbers, but these are reputable polls. they were somewhat correct in 2016. deteriorate,nue to they are going to see that if they continue to tie themselves to this president, they are going to lose. so i expect there to be more not perhaps outright opposition, but distancing from the president. tom: i know you are on a long list for vice president, for vice president biden -- i'm kidding, folks -- but are we going to see an announcement on this this weekend? do you have any sense of the

gaming on who mr. biden's running mate will be? marty: the smart money is on kamala harris. she was out campaigning. tom: i got reports, i can't remember where, that many people in the biden administration that in the biden camp are pushing against that. marty: my personal view is that it is going to be susan rice because she spent two years giving joe biden the daily security beefi briefing. --sonal bonds meet a lot mean a lot to joe biden. i think we will get an answer this week, and it will probably be linked to one of the late publications and we will see it at night. tom: marty schenker, thank you so much. an update on the noise in washington. just as importantly, the silence in washington. thunderstruck -- a dearth of news on the stimulus going into this friday morning. the markets are absolutely flat

out extraordinary. you are going to ca jump condition in the nasdaq 100 that you are going to see a jump condition in the nasdaq 100. the yield spaces extraordinary. we are never get going to have negative rates in the u.s., .1093. dollar plunging. dollar weaker, euro on a tear, 1.1 853. i cannot afford to go to london. 1.31 on sterling. coming up, the goldman sachs head on foreign exchange. this will be an important exchange and timely. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: this morning, it is nothing

more than technology. the micro decisions that we each choose to muse each and every day in searching, and consuming, in being social. in 90 days, the tech giants bring to the bottom line $29 billion. 1.2 employ just under million people. tim cook says, "apple does not have a zero-sum approach." unemployment checks will not be in the mail for monday. yields say all. to the zero bound. good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." in london, francine lacqua. i am tom keene in new york. dan ives will be with us. what i would suggest, francine, is what we are seeing now with rates that have changed that are unsettling. euro is moving quickly. francine: euro is moving quickly, and we have had quite a lot of calls