evidence that the recovery is leveling off, so yes, we went up in jobless claims not much. >> i don't think we will fall off again. i don't think it is a w shape trajectory. >> moving as negative, it will be the fed, not the market. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: good morning. this is "bloomberg alongsidece," live tom keene and lisa abramowicz. will sayet it once, we it twice, the stock market is not the economy. tom: well said. grim is an overlay, the gdp numbers against the absolute tech logical miracle that was witnessed yesterday afternoon. in the pantheon of american

technology back to the 19th century, yesterday was a bellwether announcement. applean: the idea that made $26 billion worth of iphones and a shutdown is unbelievable. tom: that is a granularity job lisa -- job. something on instagram, researches it on google, and buys the iphone. jonathan: you are describing yourself and projecting onto lisa what you are doing. lisa: [laughter] jonathan: it will be about the nasdaq and big tech. rumor, and it is not just us, it is our kids at home. we are trying to give them a screen and throw out parenting guidelines. as we look to washington, d.c. for guidance, there is none.

jobless benefits will expire without benefits past at the end of the day. u.s. personal income and spending down over the month of june, but it will give us a sense of how much did ulster the saving and spending capabilities of americans -- bolster the saving and spending capabilities of americans. the university of michigan consumer sentiment speaking about a rollover. jonathan: keep your eye on big tech this morning. that is where you will see the bounds in the nasdaq 500. futures up 300 points. tom keene in the bond market, the equity market dominated by big cap tech as we are locked indoors. the bond market, yields are at a record low on a closing basis.

for viewers and listeners, the yield story is way more important than the stock market. gdp ands in substantial substantial budget angst. .11, theser yield, are grim numbers. jonathan: let's get to troy gayeski. fantastic to catch up with you. how on earth do you make a macro call and then make the right equity call? troy: obviously very difficult if you were timing the contraction in february and march. most macro managers had a difficult time timing the recovery. the trends that were in place before the pandemic have been exacerbated, and if the stock market becomes less and less

representative of the real economy and you have arguably the greatest diversions between real economic outcomes and the stock market, and why is that? big tech is dominating more and more. the top five names in the s&p january 15 andce the rest of the market is up 25%. the key diversions is the fed. fed.vergence is the mean assetrs reflation is here, and really the only way to make money is to be long equities and credit, and enjoy the fed support. you are hoping the real economy catches up and there will be another round of stimulus, excessive.t is tom: i want to know what

investments are doing in the world of skybridge capital, are they over owns or under owned in these glory names? tech firms have been lightening up on big tech in the last few months. tom: good to know. troy: they are extremely crowded, the most crowded in history, and there was concern over elevated multiples because of where earnings were expected to be. revenue and earnings continue to be very strong, so it is the story of hedge funds the last 10 years. the best trade has been long tech and short nothing. the second best trade is long tech and short everything else. compete with high yield and have less downside. jonathan: going not overweight -- lisa: going not overweight tech has been a mistake because they keep beating again and

again. why not go into them, given that the biggest risk is regulatory and based on what we have heard, it does not seem to be much of a risk? troy: for the last three years, people have been talking about regulatory risk and that could drive some kind of breakup or hyper regulation, but it has not come to pass. part of me as an investment manager is trying to choose what you want to achieve, and anyone can own large-cap tech for free, so you are trying to find returns that have kept up in this raging bull market and have had a chance to outperform bonds and other asset classes. jonathan: what is the cleanest trade? long it is still residential backed maturities. spreads are wider than in march.

if the economy continues to recover and forbearance request continue to drop, that is the best way to plan the real economy. jonathan: the banks are touting this, that the end of the year is when we will see the recession. how do you reconcile those things? ,roy: and the earnings calls what type of recession do you have where personal incomes are up 7%? and you have home prices up. that is different and has helped keep forbearances lower than otherwise. from the banking standpoint, they will have to earn their way out of low loss reserves and delinquencies are going out the the full -- for

effects of the stimulus were felt. troy: are we seeing strength -- lisa: are we seeing strength in residential backed majorities because those who own homes are less likely to be affected? troy: in the primary residential market, you have limited supply coming in and big demographics particularly because of millennials. of skybridge,ski troy going into slow-motion briefly. on the bond market, 10 yield -- 10 year yields down. real yields get in the headlines. tom: there will be a major headline in a bit, the 10 year tips has come down on the edge of -1.00. that is a round number. jonathan: unbelievable, seemingly everything pricing off this move of real yields in america.

gold up, the dollar drifts higher. people want to deliver growth. monster tech delivered growth. lisa: we are watching the disappearance of getting money for lending money to higher-rated companies. the 3,at record lows in 5, and 10 year maturities. how long can we continue to get a bifurcation in bonds and stocks? jonathan: this is the ultimate challenge. had anlast 24 hours, we ugly gdp print. let's look at jobless claims that spoke to an economy that is rolling over and yields -- lower yields in the bond market. credit is tight because we have a huge incentive higher in the mix. mega cap stocks can make money in a shutdown with us all at home. do those reflect the underlying

economy? policymakers, the whole objective of the last three months was to divorce financial conditions from the underlying economy, and they have been successful at doing that. pictureis an amazing and you can overlay the tech on it, but i would go back to the gdp statistics we saw. as you correctly state, we get high-frequency data yesterday at eight: 30 that was not good. is gdple data is where dynamics into september 30 and into september 31? i am hearing in every single interview, they are all saying the same thing, they don't know but they are adjusting to a more tepid recovery. jonathan: let's say i have a crystal ball and know every data point to year end. will people still make the right market call? lisa: what is the right market call?

you are getting nothing on bonds and yet people are buying bonds for capital appreciation, the price will go up, yield down. people are buying stocks for the dividend payments. tom: this is gary shilling 101. are they buying for capital appreciation or because they don't know where to go? jonathan: i think it is both, but we have been talking about what lisa mentioned, we are back to 10 to $15 million in negative yielding debt. central bankers are going nowhere anytime soon. tom: the arch question of the weekend besides the future and the president, etc., how do we know we will not a negative yield in the united dates? jonathan: we don't know, and even if the fed does not take the policy rate negative, you can still get negative yields. you can get treasury yields trading below normal in the united states.

we have seen that in germany. tom: what does that do to market funds in the u.s.? a are not like europe lisa: lot of market funds closed when the rates went negative briefly. jonathan: troy gayeski will not be back with us so thank you. a big bowl in the area of this --bull in the area of this stock market, from credit suisse. good morning. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: senate republicans want to go on record as saying they tried to restore supplemental jobless benefits for millions of americans, mitch mcconnell trying to force a debate for a stopgap measure. the payments expired today. democrats want the jobless

benefits extended. coming under pressure for foring national strategy the coronavirus, the white house hasbeen avoiding -- that -- and coulds to complicate distribution of vaccine. the euro area economy plunged into an unprecedented slump in the second quarter due to coronavirus lockdowns, and it make take years -- may take years to fully recover. france and italy dropped by double digit. in the u.k., boris johnson's government has reimposed lockdown restrictions for millions of people. england,part, northern for people who failed to follow social distancing and it led to

a spike in virus. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> i want a delay. i want to have the election, but i also don't want to have to wait three months and find out the ballots are all missing and

the election does not mean anything. do i want to see a date change, no. jonathan: the president of the -- in the artin a of distraction on a day we got some week economic data -- that economic data. equity markets drifting higher. big tech is ripping higher. s&p 500 futures up one quarter of 1%. 1.19 this morning. in the bond market, yields lower but down a basis point to 0.54%. the equity market doing a nice dance off of tech earnings. we have to focus on the physical talks or the talks that are not -- fiscal talks or the talks that are not happening in washington. of themre is a sign

moving to the shows on sunday. he is a christian conservative and republican, the vice president, not mr. biden but mr. pentz. -- pence. ken mike pence do better against joe biden then mr. trump? kevin: i don't think that's a calculation that's going to happen, if i am frank with you. pence has been leading the coronavirus task force and working with the private sector behind the scenes, but also with lawmakers on capitol hill to get to some kind of deal. he has been a stoic tone. it is amazing when you think of the clock is set to expire later this evening on unemployment benefits, and still no sign of a deal. jonathan: congress isn't there,

are they? they have gone home for the weekend. kevin: even beyond that, yesterday i spoke with congressman trey hollingsworth, republican from indiana, and he said they are still worlds apart. i was trying to get an update in terms of when they think they will crack the code on getting a deal, but the congressman told me ultimately he thinks they will get there, but they are still worlds apart and they are not talking about a couple of million dollars. they are talking about trillions of dollars, and it is not just a different worldview, it is a different calculation both sides are making. goes usually the way this down as there is a stopgap measure pushing out the decision for another week or two or three. that seems to be put off the table by congress members saying, we have to do this now and push to an agreement.

is the possibility of no deal getting more and more real? kevin: i think they will have to kick the can down the road. yesterday i was speaking to a senior republican strategist, who i asked, the grandstanding on both sides, whether it is on the deficit or spending large sums of money, at what point do leader mcconnell and speaker pelosi roll up their sleeves and say, we have got to get something done? some of these grand standers could have this come back to haunt them. they are trying to make a case for the base of their parties, whether it is on the deficit or large sums of money, but ultimately people outside of washington waking up this morning might not be paying attention to the ins and outs of these debates, and are just trying to fight for their economic right. tom: i love the way you say kick the can down the road, but the

can is a soup kitchen and there are lines around the block there are -- block. there are other examples around the country. you take a break at 4:00 e.m. for cocktail hour, and what happens -- 4:00 p.m. for cocktail hour, and what happens saturday and sunday on the talk shows? kevin: i will be watching for precisely where the democrats are willing to negotiate when it comes to state and local assistance for money. i am also paying attention to which democrats are saying they support tax credits for medium and small sized businesses that allow people to stay on the payroll. but truthfully likely will be where the republicans can pick up centrist support. a word along those lines not just for unemployment benefits but food assistance, lawmakers

do not have to leave town. a milen go literally from the capital and see lines stretching around the block, for there to be some aid. jonathan: this is always the problem, politicians always get paid. they will go home for the weekend and always get paid. democrats do not want an interim deal and wanted to talk about this a long time ago, but the republicans have put them in a corner where they are calling for enhanced unemployment benefits. have you seen any cracks in the resolve of democratic leadership? kevin: i have, not in leadership, but in the rank-and-file. leader mcconnell has put so much pressure on the urgency to get this deal done, he is saying to democrats, you might not like the proposal but what is the alternative? nothing is getting done.

that urgency is putting pressure on centrist democrats, new york democrats as well as jersey, up and down the coast. tom: if we extend, as jon ferro just mentioned, does that mean the $600 benefit continues? kevin: yes, if they were to kick the can down the road. there is a way they could have a similar fight within the next couple of weeks, but ultimately in terms of a broader deal getting done, i still think the expectation is they will run this down to the wire, which they are doing, and there will likely be an 11th hour breakthrough, or it might come on monday. thethan: this is the wire, 11th hour. kevin: we are here. jonathan: this is just politics worldwide. you go into a long weekend, play the blame game, and it is all

about optics. we should not have been at this point. every time i spoke to the administration i have been told, we need to wait. -8% or -9%ta shows a gdp collapse based on european collateral -- calculations. jonathan: they were hoping there would be a decent reopening and we are seeing what has happened and what happens to the recovery when you get that wrong. data is stalling. tom: is amazon a v-shaped recovery? jonathan: it is fair to say. i don't think amazon ever had that big plunge lower, and that is the story in the equity market. big cap tech is absolutely dominating this stock market in the united states, equity futures up 10 points on the s&p in a month where the dollar has

had its worst month going back to 2010. up next on foreign exchange. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ apple, amazon and facebook crushing it. good morning alongside tom keene. this is "bloomberg surveillance" this is your price action. equities up 8 present. -- 8 percent. as for cable, the path against the u.s. dollar. 11 straight days of gains. oft is 11 straight days pound strength. i'm almost lost for words. tom: let's do this. peter kinsella with a wonderful heritage of commerzbank. to bring him in and go right there. i agree with you. this massive anomaly, the dynamics between the u.s. dollar and pound. jonathan: it is not always back

to 2010. let's talk about it. can you explain it? what we can basically see is an incredible rally in the last couple of weeks. we have come from levels around 125 and we are not trading for the 131. ridding the larger part is explaining our weakness. the weighted dollar has declined around 3% or more in july. a very substantial decline. if you look at the exchange rates, they have risen by around 1% in the course of july. it is just noise trading. he would not think by looking at cable that we were potentially four or five months away from a heart exit. -- hard brexit. jonathan: how would you explain the u.s. dollar movement? is it unleashing baby rotation

away from the u.s. dollar or is it finally the month where negative yields in the u.s. market? peter: it is about negative yield. if you look at the euro, it is higher. dollarly looking at the index, it is down. i think it is a combination of the fact that we do tend to see the dollar declining during the early stages of a global economic recovery. what we are seeing is standard. it is to be expected. anomaly that we have an of the yield continuing to compress with the prospect of yield curve control policies in a couple of months, that is saying to the market we are going to have very negative u.s. interest rates for a long time. tom: i love that about the nominal space. you mentioned yield curve control. do they have time to wait for a

number of months? peter: i think they do. it is not all that pricing in the context. the yields are contracting aggressively. every single trading day we have had, we are getting closer to new lows. i think the bigger issue is that when we go for a yield curve control policy, you will see the altar of long and so 30 years which compress aggressively. i think we will see the next leg of dollar weakness. themain point is that dollar has lost a permanent interest rate advantage and that is the real nail on the coffin. >> to your point, the fed is on one side giving some wind to the weakness of the dollar. on the other side you have the central bank, apple, amazon, google and facebook continuing to deliver. how does that in the growth this picture -- troth picture give strength to the dollar that

people are not expecting -- growth picture. peter: we have seen consistent outflows. the bigger worries for me when it comes to big tech, it is something the market simply has not priced, the outcome of the u.s. presidential election. we can see that biden is leading in the polls in the swing states. for me the biden presidency is very dollar negative and is probably negative for some risky outset particularly on the basis that we are likely to see higher corporate taxes with a focus on big tech. that will certainly weigh on the dollar. tom: where is the best trade right now? i know it has something to do with technology. probably starting with a. best trade right now? peter: there is no question that

gold is where you want to be. longve been advocating gold positions for quite some time. they perform well. you have a couple of drivers. one is the negative interest rate outlook for the coming years. we are seeing an ongoing squeeze on inventory. if you look at the futures positions, open market, open interest has declined significantly. people are taking increasing levels of physical delivery. it does suggest that there was a squeeze going on for inventories that will continue supporting gold prices. i think a fair value for gold is around 2200, $2300 per ounce. furtherer that we have quantitive easing, it does develop side risks. jonathan: plenty for the upside that is much as they will. $2200, $2300. why is this moment different for you? peter: it is different because we are seeing an instance where a central banks around the

world, not just in the states or the u.k. or the eurozone, central banks around the world adopting negative interest rate policies. even in some cases you have emerging-market talking about quantitive easing. we are in an environment that we have not seen before. it is unprecedented. certainly if we do continue to , gold looks like a very good trade. tom: thank you so much. really appreciate it with union bancare privee. a headline came out today on this historic day for technology, truly a change in the psychology of american technology. there is an old technology and i will take it back to standard oil of another time and place. the first business book i read "the breakup of standard oil." the exxon oil company posted its

largest quarterly loss in modern history. from another time and place, i never thought i would say that. jonathan: i thought maybe the quarter we had negative prices. it was really ugly. bear in mind, the demand worldwide completely collapsed for these crude companies. with skyd on this bridge capital early on and we talked about what is the cleanest trade on the economy. the cleanest trade without the intervention of a central bank. capout the huge mega dominating the equity market. the cleanest trade in the quarter was crude. we: i bring this up because are trying on a friday in july into august 2 synthesize all of these emotions. we talked to mr. kinsella. let's pull this over to saudi

arabia and the collapse of oil and a supposed recovery in oil. jonathan: that was the biggest policy mistake we have probably ever seen. tom: in our lifetimes. jonathan: to do that when you can see the world around you shutting down, to do what they did and start a price war was absolutely ridiculous. tom: this is so important because i think i lost some perspective and i think our viewers and listeners have too. years ago it seems we went through the comedy of lisa abramowicz with two drums of oil in her living room. it was funny, but it was ages ago. lisa: there has been a true medic shift in mentality you have opec succumbing to the market dynamic. rigs cominge shell online at the fastest record. some of the big oil majors actually delivered an unexpected profit due to oil trading which

goes to the volatility that you are talking about. this tremendous shift actually saved some of the oil companies that became the banks of oil rather than the suppliers. tom: john, a 10 year track record on exxon mobil with dividends reinvested as flat. when the dividend has gone nowhere in 10 years, when we look at apple computer with its second up this morning from 370 up to 407 and now up to 413. the starkness of the world we are in is just extraordinary. jonathan: i can tell you on the income side, so many people were old in europehe for income. that is why i do not like comparing the equity income in a fixed income market. the clue is that it is fixed. you get that coupon in a fixed income market unless something goes wrong. in the equity market, if dividend yields look too hot, if the market is price wrongly or

the dividend is about to get cut , it was the former. tom: i want to take this moment right now on television and i want to full-time or from what is going to happen in august. to me it is all about the president. what are his actions going to be? what is his policy shift going to be? what are you looking at? jonathan: we saw a sign yesterday when he talked about extending unemployment benefits. he has not done and in a massive way. he has allowed mnuchin to do what he did last time which is coalesce congress, that them together and pass a deal. he needs to be seen going into all of this pushing for the right thing for this economy at a time where some factions of the republican party are looking to do that. tom: lisa, what are you looking at for august? lisa: the virus policy. how the virus is spreading. you can have whatever you want on the fiscal side but you are drilling a hole that keeps getting deeper the longer the virus is spreading. if there is not a coherent virus control policy whether it is tracing and tracking and factor

testing, it would not get under control and the economy will continue to deteriorate. tom: what are you listening for from dr. fauci? jonathan: i'm looking for a break from the administration. i wonder whether he says we are seeing some improvement in the data. i think it's fair to say we are starting to see some improvement across some states across the sun belt. tom: in all the years, i have never seen the oddity of this weeks news flow. we take the time to frame out august and all the different trends. this is absolutely something 0,1132.two year yield -- .1132. jonathan: it is big tech where the big story is for earnings. a sneak peek at 119 early this money. came back with some dollar trend -- dollar strength. talking about the treasury market. around all-time

lows on a 10 year yield. down one basis point on the session. coming up, lloyd walmsley. that is next from new york. this is bloomberg. ritika: mitch mcconnell is moving to force a debate on a stopgap bill to extend supplemental on employment benefits. millions of americans will no longer get those $600 weekly checks after today. they want the jobless measure to be part of a larger stimulus package. florida posted its fourth straight day of record deaths from the virus. the state reported to 53 fatalities. arizona also set records for deaths. california reported its second deadliest day. nationwide the number of cases rose almost 2%. it is approaching 4.5 million. u.s. government wants to see books profit from former

national security advisor john bolton without a trial. the administration also got a judge to rule in its favor in arguing that it violated nondisclosure agreements that he released his book without receiving a prepublication review. he argues he fulfilled his responsibilities. it is the biggest investment in tracking the coronavirus and supplies. the trump administration will .ay as much as $2.1 billion the money will support clinical trials and allow the u.s. to get 100 million doses a vaccine is successful. twitter has reviewed more details about the highest profile security breach in history. it is concerned that hackers gained entry to its computer system reaching out to employees on their phones. the result between from the accounts of barack obama, elon musk and bill gates. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in

over 120 countries. this is bloomberg.

>> i do think the foundation of tech toly has been for broadly deny that businesses are doing well here and they remain

the future and i disagree with those who think we are in some sort of bubble. i have no problem with these valuations. i have to say, those comments were before the numbers. coming out of the numbers, everything he was saying makes sense. tom: ben labeler, brilliant. you know i did not capture. jonathan: we are well aware. tom: what we are doing today is trying to give you the smartest people we can find on this tech miracle. we witnessed the disaster of exxon's earnings and you swing over to technology and it is a miracle. he has been upfront on optimism of internet companies. he does not cover apple but he certainly looks at amazon. we touch on that this morning. lloyd, you went to $4000 per share and was ago -- hours ago on amazon.

what gives you persistency of income growth and persistency of profit growth? strikingat was most about the porter last night was the profitability. was mostd that -- what striking about the quarter last night. the company actually delivered the best segment margins since they provided the disclosure. ithink what it does is tells investors this is a business with massive earnings power. it has always been a question, how much is the profitability. they answered it with flying colleagues. you look out a couple of years as the company gets more penetrations and can run their fulfillment centers at capacity like they did in the last quarter. you can see this business is profitable. jonathan: just to jump in, i find this remarkable. a lot of people talk about secular tailwinds.

can we say with conviction, i know it might sound ridiculous, can we say these companies have faced a troop cyclical test -- true cyclical test? a cyclicalcan argue test in march. the stimulus was helpful and the outlook will depend on stimulus. if something does not come through or it comes there in a disappointing way, it will show up in these companies numbers. you can also see in the broader economy, these guys are gaining massive share whether it is amazon, facebook or google. lisa: i thought it was interesting with google the shift away from advertising post in the first revenue decline in its history but increasing its market share when it comes to cloud computing. how much is google a cloud company? how much is amazon a cloud company versus piling into retail or advertising? lloyd: for amazon, they are the

leader. it is a cloud company. it is a huge portion of the value we attribute in our target price. a leading, they are player from a technology perspective. they have not nailed the market yet, but they are making progress. dealk just signed a huge with them. i think they will get there. in terms of the actual business, it is not in two much to earnings. it is probably a drag. it is not a valuation for google. tom: i think we have an understanding of cash use and apple. the dynamics of apple, the that and the cash buildup, etc. amazon is much more of a mystery. how does amazon use its cash quarter to quarter as compared to apple? lot onyou have seen it a the internet side. companies have been reluctant to use their cash reserves for buyback shares. we are seeing more of that from google, some of that from facebook.

amazon has been very opportunistic on share repurchase. largely using their cash on operations. tom: well said. when did they become a blue-chip stock? the meli in washington, does that force jeff bezos, etc. did he suddenly decide to twist amazon into a more blue-chip character? lloyd: i don't think so. company is one day. operate the company like it is the first day. look around the shoulder and continue to innovate. i don't think it is in their dna to do anything normal. jonathan: can we talk about a stock split? why are we doing stock split in 2020 when you can buy fractions of stocks anyway in 2020? what is the rationale? when you cover a company like amazon, what is the rationale for it? lloyd: it is a good question. i think it is a bit of an

anachronism. they don't need to do it. to historically help stocks to do it. in this day and age, it is not necessary. jonathan: great to catch up with you. have to get you back on the show soon. lloyd walmsley of deutsche bank. tom, your favorite index is the dow. let's talk about it. top of the pile, apple. at some point, there will be a stock split and all of a sudden with assive company price cap weighted down. tom: they came out with the earnings yesterday. full disclosure, i have a beverage of choice in my hand. the expert next to me on the couch said, why did they do that. you think it had anything to do with their appearance is the day before in washington? they are doing everything they can to belittle small companies. i'm surprised there was only a

four to one split. jonathan: do you think that politicians think apple gets cheaper when they do the stock split? is that what you are implying? tom: my final rule is that stock split -- jonathan: be really clear about what you are implying. tom: i am implying that they are a political tool as well as a financial tool. this goes back to england where others from years ago where stock split's are part of the religion. lisa: honestly tom, i want to support you on this. tom: i'm leaving. i'm going home. lisa: not to give you a sense that congresspeople think this is a small company, but to engage more with retail investors. he did a really good job of acting politically and they, look, we cater to our employees. we cater to the greater good. we are not looking out for our own profitability. we are making sure we will be part of the up-and-coming of the recovery of the u.s. economy.

i think to that point, the stock split is saying retail investors, you can still afford us. jonathan: it is ridicules. ridiculous. tom: i would not know. think about that. tom: can i leave now? jonathan: coming up, jonathan golub will be joining us on big cap tech and he has been right. while you should stick with growth, in just a moment. the equities are shaping up as follows. .75%. treasury yields coming at a single basis point. 0.54%. your all-time lows on a closes basis on a 10 year treasury. in the fx market, a turnaround. the dollar having it's worth -- his worst month always back to

2010. right now, down 1/10 of 1%. from new york city this morning. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> what we are getting is evidence that the recovery is leveling off. so yes, we went up in jobless claims, but not by much. >> i don't will fall off. we are not going to see a downturn again. >> ultimately moving us negative, it will be the fed that will move us. i don't think it is the market. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. a historic friday. -- absolutely exaoin