♪ >> what we are getting is evidence that the recovery is leveling off. so yes, we went up in jobless claims, but not by much. >> i don't will fall off. we are not going to see a downturn again. >> ultimately moving us negative, it will be the fed that will move us. i don't think it is the market. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. a historic friday. -- absolutely extraordinary.

john, to me the silence of this friday is the unemployment checks that will go away and the silence from washington. jonathan: i hope they are not looking at the equity market this morning. i hope they are focused on the high-frequency data and jobless claims. the recovery that we have been doing a victory lap on over the last couple of months. there will not be one this time around. jobless claims are higher. recovery is stalling. the economy needs more assistance. and congress is going for a long weekend. tom: so many things this morning and we will have a lot of different conversations to get you ready for the weekend. lisa abramowicz, we all know in equities and commodities and currency, the bond market talks. it is speaking with a vengeance this morning. lisa: you are earning nothing on safe bonds. that is what this is telling you. inflation will not take off. we are seeing record low yields. almost back to its record low. i think you pointed to the most

important yield we are looking at today and that is the yield -1%,e 10 year and that is a record low. you are losing money on inflation-adjusted terms. tom: this is important. this brings us to the important property. the real yield, look for that this afternoon as the news flow continues. with that is the important reality of negative interest rates. to me, that is a major question in august. jonathan: negative real rates are here. we have talked about that. maybe after two years, maybe longer. i will say this. you can have a situation, and we have seen it across europe, where bond yields trade below the policy rates. there is no reason that cannot happen in the u.s. we can get negative nominal yields in the u.s. we may see it again. tom: we have the bonds right now. we were lower earlier but still

.113 percent on a two year yield to start the hour. futures up 11. dow futures of 82. the vix 28.90. it will be fascinating to see how it adapts to this juggernaut. without in mind, we speak with jonathan golub who writes detailed reports on the state of the market and his state has been a state of optimism. what is the tech afternoon of yesterday, what does it signal for america? jonathan: what does it signal for america? i am not sure it represents the whole economy. when you are investing in the stock market, you are investing in a basket of 500 stocks. what it says is the companies in the public markets that you invested in and the mutual funds in your brokerage account, they are in strong shape, even though the economic backdrop is more

troubling. tom: we have a lot of smart people saying sell the tech, move here, hold the tech, move here. can you make a case that you acquire more shares of these juggernauts? jonathan: absolutely. i don't think it is because they delivered great earnings yesterday. if you look at the top five companies, we have four of the top five reported. they returned 49% in the last 12 months. the rest of the market delivered zero. these companies have no debt on their balance sheet and they are sitting with cash. they are less volatile than the rest of the market. in the last 12 months they have grown their revenues something like 10 times faster than the rest of the market. the pe of these companies relative to the growth rate is half of what it is on the market. they are trading at a premium stock market multiple. they are more expensive, but they are delivering faster growth that the pe relative to

the growth rate is 50% of the rest of the market. i think the surprise is going to be that these five or seven or however many companies leading the market are going to -- the gap between them and everything else will continue to widen. jonathan: you have done some hasendous research and it me personally -- compare and contrast the top five now to the top five in 2000. of them: all five architect today. you have companies like exxonmobil and others at the peak in march of 2000. the companies back in were much faster -- i'm sorry, much more expensive than they are today. they were less healthy companies. were earnings growth rates not so superior compared to the rest of the market the way these companies are today. the profile of these companies

is much stronger. if i were to say to you that 22% of the market is growing this fast and has these margins and does not have any debt and would you rather be in that, you would say yes. and then i would say it is only five companies. people say that is risky. it is only five names. that is not the key point. it is how healthy the businesses are. jonathan: how does it get better is the question people will be asking rather than the situation we face in q2. the situation, quotation on, off, a conversation we have repeatedly. is rotation off again? jonathan g: no. i think the real question is, and i know that you guys have been addressing this, is the story that has a really concerned. the fallen interest rates is the market saying, we don't think there would be any economic growth over the decade. we are going to get a bounce off the bottom. i know it is slowing down and stalling out. the question is where is the impact of this over the long run

and all of the debt we are accumulating, and it is going to be slower. iss weakening of this bounce really problematic for industrial companies and mining companies and retailers and banks. and so you have a chunk of the market, maybe one third of the market that is really susceptible to some of the economic problems we are having. and then you have probably about 70% of the market, not just five names, but 70% of the market that appears to be healthy. if you look at healthcare names and consumer staples names. so you have this real bifurcations not only between the five, but those that are exposed to these economic woes and everything else which seems good. lisa: when you talk about the 70%, they benefit dramatically from the lower interest rates meaning they can borrow money at record low costs. how much do you expect that trend of buying money of buyback shares to shift the capital

structure into cheap debt? how much do you expect that to continue, the privatization of the biggest and strong as companies? jonathan g: i don't think that is the way that things play out. i think what happens is these companies are generating a boatload of cash flow from their businesses and that is what they are returning. when you talk about the amount that they are buying back and the map -- the amount they paid out in dividends, it is the fact that they are generating or capitol then they need to run their businesses -- more capitol and so they spew it back out to shareholders. i think that is the big story. i want you to fold in your equity call with the stunning caution i just heard from your colleague. i have known him for ages. he is a brilliant economist. i was thunderstruck earlier this

week over his cautious view forward. full that into your optimism on holding equity shares -- fold that into your optimism. jonathan g: i think his call is smack on. we have to separate out what is going on in a number of public companies that have a certain profile and was going on in employment market and the economic data. it is clear especially as we move into september and october that we are going to see some of these brilliant numbers economically. ism is bouncing, it will probably bounce toward 60 and it will roll back down. we are sorting to see this with employment numbers that have stopped improving -- starting to see this with employment numbers. it is the reason we are seeing interest rates slipped the way that they are. i think investors have to separate out when they think about equities and the economy. they are married to each other or they are cousins.

but they are not the same thing. i think his call is right which is why i would not be putting money in industrial stocks and i would not be calling for some kind of rotation out. .onathan: jonathan golub do you hear that, tom? the sound of two people working together. isn't that nice? we get to the point where we talk about each other and we say we love each other. lisa: i think they do love each other. jonathan: i was lost for words yesterday when i read the apple release. this was at the top of it. can you imagine having to write this? revenues up. at the top of the release in a quarter where half the plant was shut down? tom: this is really important. we talk to people to get it right and get it wrong.

we are never negative on the people in the tough business of get it wrong. -- ipad and mac sales were stunning. jonathan: is this a call for luxury goods companies to get a massive boost? tom: you are dead on. the stimulus -- i will go with that. it has become a requirement of society to move yourself and your kids forward. that is what it comes down to. jonathan: we will continue the conversation. for the record, we do love shelley. an apple analyst will be joining us -- we do love each other. we advanced about 10 points. from new york in the bond market, a lot of talk about the yields lower. 0.53%. we are down two basis points there. deeply negative yield. on the fx market, 119 on the

euro-dollar. we settled down around 11850. in equity futures, you have to compare what we are doing on the nasdaq with the s&p 500. the nasdaq is flying. is it to futures up one third of 1%. this is bloomberg. republicans want to go on the record and say they have tried to restore supplemental jobless benefits for millions of americans. mitch mcconnell is trying to force a debate on a stopgap measure for the six and a dollar week checks. democrats want the jobless benefits extended but only part of a larger relief package. the president coming under pressure to set a national strategy for the coronavirus. the white house has avoided strict rules. the plan has left many at the decision to industry or state leaders. experts say that has made shortages of protective gear at hospitals worst and could

complicate distribution on vaccines. it is official. the euro economy plunged into an unprecedented slump in the second quarter due to the coronavirus lockdown. it may take years to fully recover. 812.1%o area scoring contractions, the biggest heat shrinking 18.5% -- the biggest hit. boris johnson is delaying measures aimed at easing the lockdown because the number of new cases is rising for the first time since may. the british government is allowing places like casinos, skating rings and bowling alleys to reopen. the new measures will be reviewed after two weeks. biggest deal ever in the semiconductor industry. bloomberg has learned that they are in talks to acquire a chip designer owned by a stock bhangra. they will reach a group -- reach a deal in the next few weeks. news --

global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ about short-term problems becoming longer-term problems. what we saw today was two things. the short-term problems were big. that is what the quarter one gdp

number told you. the second problem was the jobless claims data and that we are not dealing with a short-term problem. jonathan: the chief economic advisor to allie aunts. the spread between the i'm coming data, jobless claims and tech earnings, absolutely huge. -- the economic data. from new york city, good morning. one hour and 12 minutes away from the opening bell. futures underperforming on the s&p and outperforming on the nasdaq. futures up 11%. the euro data -- the euro-dollar unchanged on the day. the marketis speeding -- speaking to that data and the equity market speaking to those earnings from big tech? tom: the two year yield back under one point. an extraordinary statistic as we dive into august. i want you to bring on our next guest.

i think there is some great insight here. avenuending on fifth with one of the great giants of early apple analysis, lawrence haverty and everyone around us was talking about the death of apple. larry haverty stood next to me and he said, tom, it is baloney. larry haverty was right 10 years ago. jonathan: that might have been the second time we have done that. i think we have done it five times. we are lucky to have amit daryanani with us right now. sell $26rth do you billion worth of iphones with world shut down? amit: that is a great question. i think it is a combination of having the right product launch. apple management talked about of thehe benefits

ecosystem for them. i think it is a combination of those two. wehaps through covid where have all been fixated on how data centers are the new narrative, perhaps apple and its ecosystem has gone up from a consumer standpoint. jonathan: let's be clear about this. is it a consumer staple that you have to have a look through this company with the stimulus in the last few months. ? jonathan g: it is definite -- luxuryt is definitely a based product. there is a luxury element to this. time, it is ame staple for individuals that work every day and the stats apple has. i thought it was fairly impressive which was 50% of the

macs and ipads were sold to first-time buyers ever. lisa: it highlights the importance of the hardware aspect of apple even though a lot of people were saying heading into this year this had to become more of a services company. they have to get more revenue from their itunes and other services. that was in line with expectations. it did not have the massive beats of the other hardware focused aspect. what do you take away from that going forward? out, servicesoint was up 15%. not a terrible number, not the way it has been growing in the past. i think the reality with services is it is a massive business. perhapsy saw was advertising business, licensing business which is actually through google and the applecare business, those products and services were declining or did not grow as fast. the flipside was things like apple music and app store did

better. it was a bit of a tale of two cities. if you step back, it validates at point that the diversity scale and even if you don't see services of iphone as great, you have things like the apple watch doing better. tom: i have been looking for them to entry point on apple for several years. i am still searching. [laughter] i want you to tell me the cash on cash january 1 return on apple. this was 10% dividend growth and also with that massive persistent share buyback program. am i locked in for an 8% return on day one? alone, athe buybacks least for the next four years, it will give about it 6% return. the dividend yield, the stock has improved about a fair amount. about 1% today. it is in the zip code. it is about 7% that you get

annually. tom: look at this, just extraordinary what was just said about a 7% return. day one as well. tim cook spoke about the social issues, that they are not zero-sum. anybody in economics knows what that is. is apple adding to society or are they just stealing share from everything else out there that cannot compete? you know, i would imagine that they are more adding to the society versus not. if you look at the market share, it is not a large number by any means or any metric. apple has done what others have done, perhaps make things more productive, more interactive and efficient for everyone. thatbenefited from transition. to have thistry

conversation in the last hour. let's do it again. what is behind the stock split? amit: i think the official stance is it makes it more accessible for investors. jonathan: what is your stance? it does not create much economic value at the end of the day. it is a big of a nonevent from our perspective, from them to economic perspective it is a nonevent. jonathan: great to catch up with you. fantastic to catch up. amit daryanani of evercore isi. tom keene, 100,000 employees at apple. release,nted press 175,000 new jobs since march. get your head around the growth of that company. tom: i cannot. they went out and said the percentage of that 175,000 that would become full-time employees which i think means fully

benefit employees. no, i do not have a handle on the size of jp morgan at 260,000. certainly not the size of walmart. and this amazon juggernaut, i don't know how to handle it. jonathan: 125,000 full-time jobs coming from the company. it is unbelievable. lisa: they have more than one million workers. they are the second biggest employer in the u.s. behind walmart. thank about what this means in terms of the political ramifications. how significant it will be if they do or don't raise salaries. it is compelling heading into the election season. jonathan: i don't think a stock split is going to help them on that front. globalup, the principal investors she strategies -- strategist -- chief strategist on this market. truly unprecedented what the biggest companies in america did for the second quarter. good morning. equity features up .3%.

heard on bloomberg radio and seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ hey, kids!

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jonathan: nasdaq futures showing ambition this morning. from new york city alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. the price action underperforming. as -- equity futures drifting orbit higher, but the performance of big tech absolutely remarkable. briefly,ar around 1.19 back down to 1.8 teen 47. -- 1.1847. in the bond market, yields grinding lower. against dialogue that never would we ever see negative interest rates. it sets us up for it and eventful august. we have to get another fed meeting. to remember there was a fed meeting weeks ago? jonathan: it was a fed meeting

wednesday. i think we have the virtual jackson hole in between. repeatedly warning about the month of august. never calm. tom: virtual jackson hole and may be a virtual august. with us is seema shah. she writes brilliant notes, extending out the opportunities and with some caution. there is the august of our discontent. how rocky will august be? seema: great to be with you. i think it will be really rocky. i asked my colleague went to summer,? it does not seem like it is coming. you have the coronavirus cases and then speculation about what the fed will be doing. tom: the august of all memories is 1998. i remember on the beach the smell of the sweat, it was not the beach, it was outright fear.

eelede financial system st for this gdp plunged? with less leverage than we have seen another crises? seema: i think the gdp plunged, i do not think the markets have right to do much. -- ranked it too much. our concern is momentum has already started to plateau. the high-frequency data is worrying. whatever worry- we have about monetary policy and fiscal policy, it is tied into the health crisis. until we can find a way of breaking the connection between mobility and cases, i think we will be in a tough spot. lisa: what is the argument to buy bonds? seema: a second wave would have to be your main reason. at this stage, what can the fed

do? what can most of the banks do? they stuck to keep planning it. if we start to see this recovery we have seen start to tail off and turned into negative territory -- if you were to see i think the next space becomes more realistic. lisa: if you take a look at bonds you are earning nothing to own them, yet we have a situation that if we get a second wave the economy will sour considerably. do you see an end to the move into equity because yields are so low if we get a second wave, or can this continue indefinitely? seema: an interesting question. i have a slightly negative outlook on the economy given concerns around the virus. are,bond yields where they we cannot conceivably see equities pushing their previous lows. beities is a decent place to

, but you have to pick your space wisely. reasons we draw down slightly on our exposure to u.s. think there is room left to run. tom: as you are speaking we are seeing the two year yield test new lows, 0.1073. i am sorry, the bond market is speaking, and there seems to be a guarantee of yield curve control. banku buy that the central can be successfully manipulative given what the bond market is doing? central bankse are able to do is keep things where they are. ,n terms of the bond market what would excessive yield curve control change? yields do not look like they are going higher anytime soon.

jonathan: that is the big difference between now and 10 years ago. the last time we took the fed funds rates to zero, everyone thought rates would start climbing again. it was not until 2011 the two year yield started bottoming out. that is the big difference. we believe the federal reserve is not going anywhere for a long time. you know where the two year yield was at the back end of 2018 question made -- at the back end of 2018? , -1.0034.0 year tip that is so important. you can do the real yield this afternoon. jonathan: i am looking forward to that. inflation expectations drifting higher. it is part of the story as to why negative real yields have become that much more dominant. what is behind the higher inflation expectations? seema: i think it is difficult to say.

there a lot of people who believe in two to three years the effect of all of this monetary policy and fiscal spending will pay fruit and you will see inflation picking up as well as supply chains and deglobalization. wen we think about this, are talking about inflation of more than 3%? absolute li na. ultimately it will take -- absolutely not. ultimately it will take a long time for the economy to reach pre-covid levels. we could see inflation returning to reality, but not the kind of levels markets have feared. jonathan: how on earth do you by the banks? seema: it is a difficult one. we are not big fans at this point. equities have to be in the tech space. where is sector growth coming from? it is not many places but you are seeing it in technology and mega caps. where can it play through for

financials. from my perspective from an asset allocation exposure, financials does not feature at this stage. lisa: meanwhile it is friday and today is the day when the enhanced unemployment benefits run out if there is not an extension. june personal income and spending shows the result of the enhanced jobless benefits. personal income dropped 1.1%. personal spending rose 5.6%. people getting money they can spend from the government. how big a hit to the u.s. equity market will it be if there's not some sort of extension past today? seema: i do not think it has been priced insufficiently by the market. i think it would be catastrophic. if you look at spending over last two months, a lot has been driven by the fact they have so much fiscal health. if you start to take that away, not only are you dealing with coronavirus depressing a lot of

activity, you're taking away the ability of people to spend. this is something congress must be taking note of and thinking they have to resolve this as quickly as possible. lisa: tom noticing the personal spending rate -- there is a huge wall of cash sitting in people's bank account waiting to spend as soon as they see the economy stabilizing. do you buy that? seema: there are a couple of things at play. over the past few months you have the paycheck -- there has been a lot of pent-up demand that has been used up. wondering --o be maybe they have a job to go back to, but will that be true in six months time? i think savings will stay high. i think spending has been satiated. in thell be challenging

second half of the year. the jonathan ferro, personal savings rate of 19% means a few iphones were bought. jonathan: that is the truth around the fiscal plan. the federal reserve divorced financial conditions from the underlying economy and congress insulated personal income from the job losses. how on earth going forward you have any kind of calculation on what the economy will do for the back end of this year and what it means for the market? seema: we are negative for q3. it seems like a lot of it is turning over and there has to be some concerns around the coronavirus and the way people will spend. we have got major concerns. in terms of how does the equity market respond, traditionally you would expect markets to fall significantly on these kind of concerns, but as long as you have the fed standing behind the market, is difficult to see the market retesting previous lows. we have to take the assumption the congress steps up and

provides all the money that is required. still everyone's assumption they will do the right thing. we hope they do. seema shah, thank you. how many times have we talked about this? you can make the right macro call but the wrong market call. you can be right on the economic data, you can say on employment is going to the roof, the gdp is going to the floor, but you can still make the wrong market call because of the dmx of the equity market -- the dynamics of the equity market with big tex techng it -- with big driving it. tom: i think you have to go through three or four bouts of losing money, not that i would know what that is about, trying to link economics to the equity market. i would go to peter lynch 101. no the product, use it every day come and get a visceral feel for what the company is doing. and describes a.m. zi yan

it certainly -- amd and it certainly describes apple. jonathan: did you know the dax was up last year? does anyone remember? it was up 25% and germany was going into recession. germany had back growth. japan as well. you could see things slowing down. the reason the dax was up 25% is because the policy story transformed into year end. this was before the pandemic. this is why it is so difficult for investors, and this is why so many people are still confused, because the data is not great but the equity performance is still good. what you do -- tom: what you do with the 132 sterling? jonathan: you call up governor bailey and ask what is going on. pull up a chart of eurosterling on the month, it has done nothing. tom: same with euro swissie. jonathan: from new york city,

good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. coming up, much more in financial markets and the global economy. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. mitch mcconnell is moving to force a debate on a stopgap bill to extend up a bundle unemployment benefits. many americans will no longer get the $600 weekly checks after today. democrats are opposed to the stopgap bill. they want the jobless measure to be part of a larger stimulus package. florida posted its third straight day of record at's from the coronavirus. the state reported 253 fatalities. meanwhile arizona set a record for deaths and california reported that second deadliest day. nationwide the number of coronavirus patients rose almost 2%. the u.s. government wants to seize book profits from former national security advisor john bolton without a trial.

the administration asked a federal judge to rule in its favor. it argues bolton violated nondisclosure agreements when he released his book without completing a prepublication review. bolton has argued he filled his responsibilities. china's economy speeded up this month. the first official gauge of growth shows factory output recovering. the nonmanufacturing index dropped slightly. construction is booming. economists have revised up their forecast. the nasi china's economy expanding 2%. or details revealed about the high-profile security breach. it has confirmed hackers gained entry to its computer systems by reaching out to employees on their phones. the result, tweets from the accounts of barack obama, elon musk, bill gates. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

♪

>> you have to control the virus if you want a full reopening. we will get a bounce in gdp in the third quarter, but this is

not a v-shaped recovery. this is a v interrupted. we have to get that under control. jonathan: david kelly of jp morgan asset management. nothing interrupted for facebook. facebook staring down a record high of 7%. i'll be catching up with michael nathanson around 9:40 eastern time. tom: really good time to be more focused on technology. it'll be fascinating to see what mr. nathanson says about all the stuff inundating us as well. right now we do it we do it bloomberg surveillance, we rip up the script. we can do that with stephen engle, in charge of all north asia coverage for bloomberg. deeply experienced within the dynamics of beijing and hong kong. he celebrates the edge, except right now in hong kong, we are celebrating the edge threee as

the news flows is extraordinary into friday evening in hong kong. the headlines from carrie lam and others are stunning about the delay of an election. his democracy at threat this evening? stephen: it is democracy interrupted, to borrow the terminology you have been using about a v-shaped recovery. democracy is interrupted with the chief executive a hong kong, with the blessing of beijing, but saying legislative council elections due to be held on september 6 will be "postponed" for one year, until 2021. that is unheard of. it is an emergency measure carrie lam has invoked, saying she has to take into account public health. ,here has been a record wave 121 cases of coronavirus on top of a record surge yesterday.

the pro-democracy camp is not buying it because yesterday we had the bait disqualification of a number of candidates. arrests the day before for allegedly espousing self-determination for hong kong , all of this ahead of today which was the deadline for people to submit candidacy for elections. the timing seems odd. tom: tells about the hong kong we never see. chinas guilty as going to and migrating between three hotels and the office and saying i went to china. baloney. is the virus in hong kong a virus of hotspots? stephen: the virus in hong kong lauded for itss response. it shut off its borders, it got everybody in the city wearing masks. it is not a political issue. it was something born of

when wece from 2003, had the sars outbreak. everybody wore masks. that carried over. people put their political differences aside for a little while on the protest front and they got down to containing the virus. for the most part, it worked. lo and behold, we have had a second and third wave, and the borders are still closed with china. visitors still cannot come in, yet we are getting pockets of local untraceable virus. you the struggle the world is having in containing this outbreak. edge notg kong is on just because of the coronavirus but because of the national security laws beijing has passed. i'm wondering how quickly financial firms are moving there businesses -- moving their offices to singapore.

is that shift already happening? stephen: we heard from the american chamber of commerce in hong kong, and they have done a survey of their clients. i think a lot of people are considering longer-term plans and contingency plans if the political and judicial situation gets out of hand. tog kong cannot continue play its role as an international financial hub with an independent judiciary. just trying to assuage those differences between the socialist legal system and the british common law system held over from the british times. we are still going through the early days of the national security law implementation a month ago. it definitely sends a chill through the pro-democracy camp, but i am sure the banks and the board rooms are considering what their contingency plans have to be. there are people reapplying for their british national overseas passport after boris johnson

gave a path to possible citizenship. will we see a wave of immigration like we saw pre-1997? still early to tell but i am sure people are lining up their lifeboats just in case. lisa: are you on the market for a new apartment given the fact that people are expecting property values to go down? is that something already happening? stephen: not yet, surprisingly. the property market has held fairly resilient. facing a bigoperty hurdle going forward. the economy in the first quarter sank 8.7%. the second quarter down 9%. this is the deepest recession the city has ever felt. he would think the property prices would start falling, especially since mainland buyers, which were the biggest buyers of residential property, they are not coming in. property has remained fairly resilient, as it has in other

places as well. how much time cannot hold out? stephen engle, you've been wonderful to be with us. i cannot say enough that the national and global impact the edge one had. this was a one hour program about three months ago. it was so popular we decided to do it again. it is hong kong on edge two. you can see it through the weekend at 7:00 tonight. i would make note of the repeat through the weekend across all of bloomberg television and our digital platforms. this is the decades of stephen engle reporting on asia. what i want to do is wrap up the week with futures up. that barely describes a 1% move on the nasdaq we are seeing right now. the real story is yields lower, then a pause later in the

morning, and we have now reaffirmed the lower two year guilt. .1093. that bears the closest of scrutiny into the weekend. there has been curve flattening until moments ago. the dollar is weaker, no question. it ebbs and flows off of 11843 euro and again 105.14. lisa, what you observe? lisa: the bifurcation between stocks and bonds. the bond yields at record lows. then you have stocks edging higher. this bifurcation, how long can it continue? it looks like perhaps a lot longer. i find that fascinating. tom: we stop the show an hour ago for an extraordinary headline. statingn oil company its worst losses in modern history. that is extraordinary. brent crude $43 a barrel.

, a critical important conversation with leon panetta on washington. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

senator schumer: we just need

our republican colleagues together act together, roll up their sleeves, understand the gravity of the problem, negotiate with us. jonathan: from new york city, good morning, good morning. "the countdown to the open" starts right now with equity futures positive .2% and tech stocks ripping. we begin with the bait issue. the stock market is not the economy. major tech companies smashing earnings estimates and a quarter where most americans were rarely leaving their home. seemingly immune from the beating the economy talk. make a cap tech stops making up a large chunk -- their performance hardly a reflection of the underlying recovery. in economic recovery stalling and job loss rising. likely little comfort to the million still unemployed. we are closing on july with enhanced umpym