you have to remember u.s. confidence is doing better than most countries in the world. >> the bifurcation between the asset side of the economy and the real side of the economy is accentuated at very low yields. >> the economy is healing, but there is no vigor to that recovery, and we probably won't get that until there is a vaccine. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. of pressure signs reaching lawmakers down in washington, d.c. tom: right on cue. it is on schedule, three days into the ballet. many people looking out to the jobs report this friday as being the real catalyst for a discussion. the president inpatient. jonathan: and the texas

republican senator inpatient as well. "i can't see how we can go home failed."people we they will all have to go home at the end of the week and tell people they failed. lisa: and there is pressure from president trump that if you don't do it, he will go at it unilaterally. you have to think that he is adding to pressure to passing this through for republicans. also today, what am looking at, to the clock a.m., u.s. durable goods and factory orders. gauge was the strongest since september 2018. aftermarket today, disney reports earnings, expected to have a lost. but everyone looking at disney plus, what kind of traction they are getting their earnings. did you get disney plus just to watch "hamilton?"

jonathan: of course i did not. [laughter] lisa: i am shocked. jonathan: full anyone else try to buy tiktok? tom: i'm glad you asked. let's put it this way. disney has $14 billion in cash. billion inas $140 cash. you do the math. jonathan: i think microsoft has the money to get it done. did you see the line from chinese media? the irony won't be lost on anyone. by no means except the theft of a chinese media company -- by no means accept the theft of a chinese media company." apple, was a presence in china, hands off. say?zuckerberg, what do he i think it is well documented that the chinese steal from u.s.

companies. that is the irony of this moment. tom: i know we've got to get to michael purves, but i think it is so important as you mentioned mr. zuckerberg to mention his commitment not to beijing or to washington, but to new york. his taking of the full office isce across penn station arguably the greatest statement on this island of manhattan since 9/11. it is very exciting for manhattan. jonathan: he is on a big push, that is for sure. we got to bring in the bull of the moment, michael purves, tallbacken capital advisors ceo. i am just going to call you mr. 3650 on the. how are we getting there -- on the s&p. how are we getting there? michael: my framework really sees that the extraordinary

measures from the fed to not look at valuation on the s&p 500 on an absolute basis, but really the only way i can look right now is on a relative asus. in other words, i look at the forward earnings yield, the inverse of the price-earnings ratio, and subtract the 10 year treasury yield. that gives me enough comfort to get to 3500, 3700 by the end of the year, even without an uptick in earnings estimates. that is all a fancy way of saying the fed is forcing you up risk curve into buying equities. but let's not forget, the big cap tech companies have a long history of demonstrating not just higher earnings growth, but also a consistency of that earnings growth. they are such a dominant part of the s&p 500 right now that i think it is really kind of more of the same here. there's a huge footnote to this argument, which is that it on yield are to start rising higher

, if we start seeing those go up through 1%, 1.25%, this framework falls apart real fast. so this valuation, or this price target is really predicated on the continuance of a super suppressed bond yield. tom: that's right where i wanted to go. it is a great bullish call. there's other people with the same town. it is completely predicated on the inverse pe, inverse cash flow ratio as well. let's say you are correct and we sustain. why do you stop at 3600? guess i amll, i crossing each bridge as i come to it here. for the last several years, i've had this view in this world of very low nominal gdp that as long as there is some gdp growth

at these very low interest rates, price ratios could be supported at extreme nearly high-level for a longer time thanks to structural disinflation, aggressive central banking, and all of that. and again, with that added component, you have these cap tech companies grinding out this important earnings growth with less activity then you find in other sectors. so i will cross that i end of target.1 but i do think that this framework is really important. -- ie never seen in alec have never seen an equity rally as he did as the one we have been dealing with. what i advise my clients is you have to learn to love the hate. i still hunt there's an argument that there's a lot of cash

sideline -- cash on the sidelines that will be coming in. lisa: learn to love the hate is definitely the mantra for a lot bulls right now. bonds and stocks are sending very different messages. your concept is predicated on the idea that the federal reserve will continue to go in and buy treasuries increasingly on the long end to suppress yields, even if the economy continues to grind higher, providing some sort of support. do you think that is a crucial aspect of your recipe to get to 3650? michael: without question it is crucial. it is critical. the massive amount of uncertainties across the landscape, there's one thing. the most important security in the world is the ten-year treasury.

what powell has achieved through cuts and all of the other programs of asset building is he has not just capped the 10 year yield at very low levels. he has also smothered volatility. if you look at the june fomc, 14 of the 16 projectors of the dots had zero interest rates through the end of 2022. , it wasn't just a not-seven -- or 9-7. their forecasts are much more bloombergve than what had. they are becoming a little less data dependent, and i think there's a separate conversation as to whether that is healthy for the long-term economy, but to 3650 andgetting beyond, i think it is very clear that that type of overwhelming

support and cohesion within the fed on these policies gives you high certainty that interest rates will be very low, with one big caveat. if inflation starts really climbing to a much higher level and the term premium on 10 year treasuries is young, perhaps by -- is yanked up, perhaps by bund yields, that could be the big wildcard. jonathan: lisa doesn't care about equities. yesterday when she got really bored, she pinged me and said watch out for alphabet. they are issuing debt. tom keene, i have to say, if you , it is that debt priced unbelievable. lisa: crazy. nothing.y costs there no other way to put it. you have to believe there will be strategic transactions based

on that simple statement, money costs nothing. jonathan: we've got to let you go, michael purves of tallbacken advisors. there's been this conversation about a 60-40 portfolio. i think the conversation we have had increasingly is what replaces the 40 portion if you drift away from treasuries. , single a rated credit? the answer might be yes. lisa: if you are talking alphabet, you are not getting very much. what you hear a lot is that you have to go into riskier asset classes, alternative or you do you have to wonder what the longer-term consequences of this is. it is not just investment grade credit as you are getting basically nothing to go into the must credit worthy names. that sets it up for also to duration risk. but what are the longer-term consequences of this push into risk? jonathan: the key phrases longer-term.

forty-year credits. 40 years in a technology company. what was around 40 years ago? more importantly, what wasn't around 40 is ago in big tech in america? tom: jon, i am watching tiktok right now. i've got my spurs mask on. thank you for sending that to make. jonathan: remember yesterday, we talked about the advantages of radio? [laughter] can you explain what on earth you just put on your face? tom:tom: that was a spurs mask. jonathan: as in the english premier team. tom: the tots, yes. what caughtactually me. it is like lemmings over a cliff. it is like the support for the tots. everybody is going to do it. do 20, 30. going to maybe the forty-year is the new 20 year. jonathan: nothing you have said subsequently i have heard or

understood. i am so confused this morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. that.ou can't say [laughter] york, this is new bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president trump may take executive action if congress can't agree on a new stimulus package. the president told reporters he might impose a moratorium on evictions and enact a payroll tax holiday. the white house is also exploring whether the president can act on his own to extend an unemployment insurance payments. president trump insists that if tok's u.s. operations are sold, the u.s. should get a cut. it is not clear on what authority they could extract a payout. the president said tictoc would have to close in the u.s. by

september 15 unless an american company buys it. hurricane isaias was downgraded to a tropical storm as it made landfall and moved inland over north carolina. it prompted tropical storm warnings all the way up to maine, including in manhattan. the storm doesn't pose a threat to any major oil refineries or platforms. northern ireland faces a brexit timebomb. it is according to the northern ireland retail consumer authority. transported will require export certificates. that could add $52,000 to the cost of each shipment. bp has cut its dividend for the first time in a decade area that removes a cornerstone of its investment -- in a decade. that removes a cornerstone of its investment case. global news 24 hours a day, on

air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are really getting an understanding of each side's position, and we are making some progress on certain issues, moving closer together. there are a lot of issues that

are still outstanding, but i think there is a desire to get something done as soon as we can. jonathan: senate minority leader chuck schumer with a word you haven't heard much at all over the past few weeks, progress. from new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. two hours away from the cash open in new york. you can add 12 minutes to that. the equity marketing new york city, equity futures shaping up as follows. equity futures come in at 11 on the s&p, down 0.3%. on tens,asis points aback to 0.53%. in the fx market, premixed this morning. interest -- pretty mixed this morning. the event risk on the calendar this morning. tom: there's a real deterioration in bonds that is nuanced here.

1.0503ling you, a negative statistic for the 10 year yield talks about a slowdown in the american economy. right now, kevin cirilli, as we heard senator schumer. our chief washington correspondent on what will happen today. what will happen today in these better negotiations? kevin: there was a breakthrough yesterday. we don't know precisely what the breakthrough was. we were trying to figure that out within the last 12 hours. it was significant in the shift of tone coming from senate minority leader chuck schumer, as well as speaker pelosi, who also echoed what schumer had said yesterday. yesterdayte that also , president trump said if there is no deal, he is willing to use executive action in order to address certain issues as it relates to this. that is almost a day or two leadership -- i dare to

leadership in congress to say he can go longer because he can utilize exec at of orders -- utilize executive orders. tom: what i really want to talk about here is they solve the easy things, right? now they've got to figure out who gets the dog. what is that thing that is going to really slow this down? what is the dog in this debate? jonathan: kevin is lost for words. [laughter] tom thinks there's a dog involved this time around. i hate to break it to you, but in this occasion, there's no dog involved. kevin: based upon my reporting, what i can tell you is that funding for state and local governments is what is really going to be the issue here. but i think beyond that, i also from that tax credits small and medium-sized businesses is also going to be an issue that comes to the

forefront, as well as something that democrats want to sell to their constituents. a democrat from california and asked him point-blank about that. ifdrew this parallel of funding for state and local governments is not increased, and there is funding for firefighters, for individuals who work in the sanitation divisions, all of that really could cripple cities right now, which are desperately in dire need and already hurting. that i think is something that schumer, as well as speaker pelosi, are really fighting for. of course, coupled with the liability protections of leader mcconnell, i think those three issues are really what is at stake here. jonathan: whatever happens in november, i believe this administration will be a case study for decades to come on executive powers. when you hear the president say things like he can do this himself, when it comes to tiktok, and he says we are going to take a slice for that, for a

reporter in washington, how do you take that message? do you just take the message and repeat it, or think about whether he can actually do those things? kevin: it is a trained in the executive branch that dates back to the obama administration. candidate trump was very critical of former president obama for his use of executive orders, and republicans have been incredibly critical during the obama years. it was during one of former president obama's state of the union addresses when he noted that he would have the power of around in order to go the republican congress. that is where i think it is interesting to see the tables so significantly turned. president is saying just as much. what i find fascinating is the same criticism as it relates from a foreign policy yearsctive, in the obama

it was uses of drones, but the president has adopted a much more economic approach in terms of using that as a preference. but the contrast is striking. the strategy and the use of executive orders is the same. lisa: jon was talking about using more executive power, perhaps building on what president obama did, but can president trump unilaterally reinstate $600 enhanced unemployment benefits and preventive actions in the short-term? kevin: he says yes. he says, who is going to stop? he makes the case that he ran as an outside candidate, and that the system in washington is broken, and he needed to do this in order to address this because democrats, he will argue, stood in his way of negotiations. democrats on the hill will say he is wanting to be cheap, for lack of a better word, and not wanting fund in the long run some of the cities. but it is an interesting dynamic

. when i talk to sources on the president's reelection campaign, they really want to have the president talking about the economy and talking about solutions. they still feel that is where he is positioned to do the strongest. tom: in the zeitgeist, there's always these little moments. i saw a snippet of a video of the senator from south carolina, mr. graham, in columbia, talking about the c.a.r.e.s. act and about the $600 check, and he looked nervous. what are these guys hearing when they go home? then: they are looking at university of chicago study, which has said that individuals on are earning more money unemployed and benefits, but democrats are looking at a gill study -- at a yale study. in terms of south carolina, would you can look at in terms of a battleground for trade with china onst

automobiles, but for europe, but he is someone who is really in the mix of foreign policy conservatives. he's really in a fight that he is expect it to alternately when, but he is also running for reelection. jonathan: always great to catch up. our conversations with kevin now by saying run. [laughter] tom, i am with you. the republican party started to track a little bit. -- started to crack a little bit. that's the reality they face going into the weekend. jonathan: you could see it in -- tom: you could see it in senator graham's face. thishe washington post" morning, brilliant on all of those academic studies. jonathan: more to come with frances donald of manulife.

from new york city this morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. ♪ what happens when a wireless carrier

puts its customers in charge? well, the good news gets shared. and it gets rated #1 for customer satisfaction. but don't just take our word for it. take theirs. it's your wireless. your rules. only with xfinity mobile. call, click or visit a store today. where you can find games, news and highlights. all in one place, right on your tv. the xfinity sports zone. use your voice to search every stat and score. follow the teams you love. and, even get notifications with breaking news alerts and more. with the xfinity sports zone everybody wins. now that's simple, easy, awesome. say xfinity sports zone into your voice remote today.

jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance ." live on bloomberg tv and radio, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your price action shaping up as follows. equity futures down 10 on the s&p, -0.3%. really strange market in g10 today. the euro up by not even 0.1%. in the bond market, the curve steeper yesterday, flat this morning, 0.54%. tom: this cross asset dynamic is very subtle. it is what "surveillance" was built on. i totally take your point on the linkage of ethics dynamics into dynamicsamics -- of fx into yield dynamics. the 10 year nominal rate is really trying to make a thrust

lower. jonathan: in and around 50 basis points, but we have been grinding lower over the last several weeks. i think there's an interesting narrative, the european outperformance story. tom: do you see it? jonathan: we haven't seen it yet in the data in a big way. i've seen it in the market. we seen it in the euro. we haven't seen it in the data and a major way. the reason i say that is because we had the ism in the last 24 hours, and it was actually pretty decent. we wake up this morning with kit juckes of socgen and others talking about u.s. rails is -- about u.s. resilience. maybe people talking ws too soon -- talking down the u.s. too soon. now, a woman who knows that all of this market chitchat folds right into the guesstimate on the american economy. manulifeonald is at

and does wonderful, brief messages and research reports on the concept at hand. she has never written on anything like this friday's jobless report. how do you approach the complete mystery of this friday's report? frances: well, i am not trying to get a sense of what that headline is going to look for. i am looking for a lot of the underlying details, and what i expect we are going to see is that more people are unemployed on a permanent basis as opposed to temporary, and the duration of unemployment is going to start looking worse and worse. while you might see headlines seeing some moderate improvement, ultimately the underlying foundation of the bond market is just getting worse and worse. tom: there are three unemployment rates. the visible one, which everyone is glib about, the augmented rate, and the all in you six rate, a much higher -- all in u6

rate, a much higher statistic. which one matters? frances: the most all-encompassing. the pain on the economy has been so much more sinister than what we see even in headline gdp numbers. we are talking about wage losses, larger levels of income and racial disparities as a result of it. there is so much more happening under the surface that is more concerning. most of all, when you look at the underlying picture, we still have 14 million americans that have to be rehired just to get us back to february. it is very difficult for us to look at this number and say, even if we see another 1.5 million people rehired, we are still in one of the worst labor markets we have ever seen. and yet, we are probably going to hear a lot of headlines about how their has been improvement. it just doesn't sit right. jonathan: the challenge is you've got to take the data and

try to understand how investor attitudes are changing as well. if we get a negative print in the payrolls report, how do you think investors would respond to that? woulds: i think they probably view it as a call to action for policy, and an indication that we will probably see a faster move on stimulus. or so, last month they have been trying to highlight that the high-frequency data that told us april was a key positive inflection point is now turning the other direction. but the key is not to say that the economy is going to worsen. the key is to say the economy is going to worsen and this is going to engender an important policy response. the game is figuring out how powell and congress respond to it. lisa: the dominant policy response when it comes to market has been that is the federal reserve policy. i wonder how much the low interest rate policy the fed has

to backstop the markets is actually creating jobs, stabilizing jobs, keep in from firing people. can you draw any connection to the fed's policies to employment right now? frances: over the long run, yes. in the near term, they are essential function is to ensure we don't see a credit crisis. that is the main issue at the current moment. that is why the entire focus of the microsphere has really shifted away from monetary asti macro sphere -- of the macro sphere has really shifted away from the monetary towards fiscal. when you look at the citi surprise index, we see the largest spread between where data came in and economists expectations. i like to call it how wrong economists are. they are the most wrong they have ever been this particular measure. the thing we missed was just how sizable fiscal stimulus was going to be, how big the numbers

were going to be. how we were going to see 2/3 of americans making more than they did pre-covid. digitsl income up double relative to last year. if we lose the main pillar of this rebound, then the data starts to worsen pretty substantially. i concern is that as much as we have missed how powerful it will be on the upside, we may have missed how painful it will be on the downside. jonathan: i like that, that we rename the surprise index is the economist success rate or failure rate. just judging them real-time. tom: this has been brutal. i have no idea friday what we are going to see. i don't know how i make a three month forecast, let alone a six month forecast. herehe heart of the matter is what you people do, which is count countable things. can you count the stress in the american economy? frances: you can count a lot of

stresses, but we are not using the same measures we did before. that is why i am more focused on initial jobless claims this week. tom: thank you. countable. frances: this crisis moves so quickly, so all of those alternative data points that we are now all talking about , that data is so much more important, and what we witnessed about mid april is that movement in the ultra high-frequency daily and weekly indicators are what gets markets markets'e what get attention. our people moving around and stores are open, but what is their confidence level? do people feel confident? the demand side of the picture is also much more difficult to count. we have to move away from those

traditional data points and look at new ones. it is very uncomfortable for economists. it means we have to change our models and forecasting process, but we have to do economics differently. jonathan: i can hear the concern in your voice. . it is palpable. can you walk me through the structural damage you are worried about right now? what i see ahead it's we have to trade on our three month, six month basis. it is the long-term portfolio i spend a lot of time thinking about. we are in the midst of the largest fiscal spend outside of wartime. we are beginning to see the seeds of debt monetization. real rates are deeply negative and likely to stay there. this is a transition to a new system that is probably going to ,ee steeper yield curves probably create misallocation of

capital, probably push money into alternatives and hard assets. this is the way that covid-19 has these more sinister long-term impacts. so i expect the economy will weaken in the next six months, but what really keeps me up at night is how with thick about the five to 10 year horizon. that is what is changing very dramatically on a week to week basis. it is going so quickly, and yet it has had long-term implications. that is where the concern you hear comes from. lisa: one thing tom has been focusing on for the past few days is the negative yield in the united states, this increasing inflation expectation despite the ultra low yields now. what is your expectation going forward? frances: my sense is we may head a little bit of concern about stagflation in the second half of the year. our models say we get to 2.5% inflation. but in the second half of the year, a lot of those that could

have been a drawdown on inflation, i am sure i am going to have portfolios managers mentioning how much inflation is in the system. i think we need to move away from the idea that monetary policy is a source of inflation, and women were that deglobalization and huge fiscal spends may be where inflation is coming from. so i do expect the market to raise those inflation expectations. i expect real rates to continue to trend low for a long time, and that is going to push more money into search for yield opportunities. jonathan: great to catch up with you, as always. princes donald of manulife asset -- frances donald of manulife asset management there. tom: there's three to six there -- there's 36 is kicks -- again, there's three statistics there. it iss so important is highly countable, but also

wildly asymmetric. surveykee likes that that we will see here in a bit. think about payrolls and the estimates. we saw ethan harris on this show yesterday, whose estimate is one million, but he would not be surprised to see a negative print. can you imagine the band in that wide every friday? tom: it is always unpredictable. the media talks in certitudes, and pros like frances donald don't. program, jason campbell of jeffries. in your market this morning, good morning. in new stormy one york city.

outside of equities into the bond market, a little bit further diminished, down by a couple of basis points on the 10 year to 0.54%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president trump is turning up the heat on congressional negotiators. he says he may take executive action to stop evictions and to enact a payroll tax holiday. some progress on negotiations, but are still fall apart -- are still far apart. editor-in-chief of china's "global times," who has become known for accurately predicting beijing's actions, he says that china will retaliate against american reporters in hong kong. argentina moved closer to ending a month-long standoff with

investors as a deal backed by the largest creditor group to restructure $65 billion of debt may open the way for one of the world's most and tori as barbers to climb out of its third default in two decades. is leavingmer king his homeland in disgrace. ie carlos -- juan carlos helped lead spain to democracy, but a series of scandals have tainted his standing among spaniards. the current king said he would move outside of spain. he didn't say where. facebook has signed a lease for all of the office space at the building that is a former post office in manhattan's west side, being redeveloped by dinardo realty trust. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the economy needs a lot of support right now. we need a package that is about half as big as what we got in the spring, so it has got to be

like $1.5 trillion. jonathan: a number we have heard a lot about on this program. there's currently a $2 trillion and change spread between republicans and democrats as those talks continue in washington. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. that was ethan harris of bank of america. in the equity market, we shape up as follows, down 0.4%. we break down in the last 30 minutes or so. euroe fx market, the $1.1760. yields lower by two basis points, 0.54%. it feels like one of those stereo typical summer days, but we know it isn't. tom: it is not. the news flow is extraordinary. we are going to frame this jon'sh "surveillance," "the open" as well.

there's all this economic talk, and we have taken our eye off the virus. there is no one better at bloomberg to speak about this then max nisen, who folds in prodigious knowledge on the health care industry. swilled you could be with us today. there's warfare at the white house. the president went after dr. birx and dr. fauci defended dr. birx. how do you synthesize that into a viral policy of washington? as it hasn, it is been for some time, this public and perceived private disconnect between the president and the simplythat a stent should be leading the response. i think that sort of filters threw two policy. on one hand, you have at least increased --

viral.x, it is the president speaking with axios. he has a chart in his hands of the death dynamics, and he is denying pure statistics. how to the people you look at everyday move forward with that leadership? max: it is tremendously difficult. what you are referring to is the president upsets in at looking at death divided by cases as opposed to divided by population. on the first, because we have so many cases, we look great on the second. people trying to respond and advocate for a kind of rational, consistent, and enduring, effective response from the white house are very disturbed thise fact that

leadership, or the lack thereof, opening schools were not, and if we actually get a vaccine, they theendously to the cult -- truman nissley difficult thing of rolling it out, having a backseat -- the tremendously difficult thing of actually rolling it out. that is going to take unprecedented federal effort. lisa: president trump yesterday saying he expects to have a vaccine before the end of the year. that does seem to be the circuit when is the most likely estimate at this point, based on the science we have, the developments out of the big biopharmaceutical companies, what is the latest timeframe ucs feasible -- timeframe you see as feasible? max: it is something that is really difficult to predict, and one where you really have to

define your terms. that is something where i don't think the president or the market are really doing. so an emergency approval for a vaccine conceivably could hit that timeline. i don't think it will. beyond that, i am certain that well before the end of the year timeline does not mean we will have many millions of doses and be able to get them to people to get anywhere near vaccine induced herd immunity. this is before we have any sense of how effective these vaccines are. that requirecines two doses, and may not provide sterilizing immunity against transmission, as well as infection, which dramatically increases the difficulties of getting to a vaccination level where you can get back to economic normals.

if you are pricing in a fall vaccine miracle, it is likely to be disappointing in one of multiple different ways. lisa: the narrative is that the united states has had a much worse virus response than europe. is that accurate? max: absolutely. i don't think there's any way to argue otherwise, based on any number of metrics, and based on the current trajectory. you are starting to see these glimmers of hope of flattening in viral hotspots, but we have talked a lot about death lags. it is also lacking the other direction. when you start to have a bend in cases, that means the death rates are going to be elevated significantly for the next month . so the gap with other countries is just going to continue. tom: i've got one final question, and that is the integrity of the serious math.

clearly in brazil, where cases have flatlined, they are playing with the numbers. there's no question about that. are you hinting that in the united states, we don't have al correlation on our cases statistics? max: the thing that keeps me a little bit more confident in at least the broad statistics, with the caveat that there have been various gaps in reporting from different states, is that we continue to get these sort of daily state reports that, when you aggregate them, you can get at least a pretty reliable picture of the outbreak. that doesn't mean that you should blindly trust the statistics. there's lots of evidence that we may be under deaths, for example. but i don't think there is some glaring juking of the stats that is evident to me, at least. jonathan: great to catch up with you. this just feeds into the crosscurrents around economic

data at the moment. tom: strongly agree. jonathan: you are starting to see that in the data now. this is the problem. the states made a while ago, it shows up in the data later. tom: i think we are course correcting. i would defer to the pros on that. but what i would say is you really wonder how all of this science talk folds into aggregate demand, the greater economy. the answer is you never know until years later. we've got to wait before we really begin to look at those interdependencies. jonathan: sometimes i do a tease to the next hour and say we are really looking forward to catch up with whoever it might be. this time i really mean it, so you will have to work out when i don't mean it. i'm looking forward to catching yu of bnyoffrey mellon. your equity market shaping up as follows. with equity futures near the lives of the session, down around 15 points, off by 0.4%.

from new york city this morning, heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance "bloomberg surveillance -- this is -- this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

>> ultimately in the background, you have to remember u.s. confidence is still doing better than most other economies in the world. >> the bifurcation between the asset side of the economy and the real side of the economy is accentuated, and there is low yield. >> there is healing, but there is no vigor to that economic recovery, and we probably won't get any until there is a vaccine. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. kevin: good morning. -- tom: good morning. thrilled your wis