>> what we are getting now is evidence that the recovery is leveling off. >> i don't think it is a w shaped trajectory. >> the economy is healing, but there is no vigor to that recovery. >> markets don't like uncertainty. >> you will begin to see some investor taking chips off the table. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up 17. the week begins on a wednesday. tom: three days of labor detail. we will see the adp report this morning. anythinge more than was a confirmation yesterday, lower yields, weaker dollar. yield speaks right now. jonathan: i would agree with you . the dollar breaking down.

gold breaking out, comfortably three 2000. lisa: which is interesting because you are getting a risk off deal. -- you are getting a risk on feel. the private payrolls expected to have a modest rain at 8:15 am, not including the state and local government jobs, which are expected to state weaker performance. the financingget plans from the treasury department. at nine: 45, we get u.s. 9:45, wepmi data -- at get u.s. services pmi data. jonathan: let's get straight to the price action. we wake up from the tuesday snooze fest with some moves. the euro out to $1.1834. yields lower yesterday. this morning, up to 0.53%.

that's the price action. the question of this morning in the keene household, in early september, tom keene has arranged for a day off. $29.99 on spending mulan?" tom: we celebrated the disney release last night by 2."atching "frozen not as good as the first one. jonathan: i saw the big news up front early this morning. the trading week does begin on a wednesday. the data coming out later. --ims tomorrow, pays roles claims tomorrow, payrolls

friday. to a now is jason draho, ubs head of technical asset allocation. positionedare marryin remain to the upside? jason: big tech companies certainly got the headlines across the board. the what is notable is guidance for q3 has actually gone up 3%. the overall earnings outlook is showing pretty solid improvement. markets are looking through the weakness we had an second quarter, probably priced more for 2021 earnings. that is a positive. data,e seen some mixed recently concerns about slowing growth in the u.s. because of increasing virus case counts.

but the virus curve is flattening, and we are seeing some signs of mobility pickup and some of those states. markets are price potentially for a vaccine solution. do we actually get confirmation? i think there's more upside from that. tom: you have some serious face time with robert schiller of yale on the path to your phd. what kind of exuberance is this equity market? jason: i think it is not that exuberant. there are certainly pockets of it, but on the institutional side, when you look at the overall sentiment, i would still say it is relatively modest to ,eutral, but it is not euphoric certainly not in terms of the real money managers. investors continue to position for a recovery. lisa: there is a raging debate in the bond world, a question of

why benchmark rates are so low. is it because of the federal reserve buying bonds, or is it because the expectation for growth is so low that this is the yield that is justified, and it matters in terms of what you feel with respect to risk assets? where do you fall on that debate? jason: i think there are certainly concerns about growth, but i think it is important to distinguish between yields have dropped medically, but real yields have been trending higher. every time there's a real growth scare, inflation expectations of gone up a lot. the fact that they are rising right now suggests that the growth concerns are maybe a little bit overstated. there's the view that the fed is going to be on hold for a very long time, and therefore rates should be low. i think that is more the narrative. just to be clear, do

you think it is sustainable to see real yields stay deeply negative? jason: in the near term, if we get through the recent growth concerns because of the virus in the u.s. we think the 10 year can make not a big move, but if you look at the move in gold, potentially the dollar lower, some of that is at risk of unwinding if we start to get some sort of normalization that causes rates to back up a little bit. macro plays out like we expect, we should see a gradual rise in nominal yields. jonathan: let's get to gold, shall we? a break in 2k. we are up 1%. tom: a lot riding on yesterday. jon ferro was brilliant on the mathematics of nominal to real

yield. get the ubs optimism, but how do i play it instead of just owning apple and amazon? jason: there's a lot of concern that this is getting stretched. if you look at the growth numbers on the earnings side, you justify the valuations. this is not a 2000 kind of scenario. but within the tech space, you need to be more selective. companies inour the software services area, things that have longer legs in terms of the overall growth story. what we are a little more position for on a sector basis is the cyclical rebound. consumer discretionary, areas of industrials, things that will have lagged some of the growth rally. tom: how do you respond to 28 and 30 multiples in stocks that

don't have the revenue growth of amazon? you've got maybe high sink of revenue growth if you are lucky -- high single-digit revenue growth if you are lucky, and these are priced like half a century ago. we are definitely more selective in their earnings growth going forward. at this point, the tech space specifically is a little more stockpicking as opposed to outright owning the sector overall. given how much it has moved, given some of the headwinds that could materialize, you are going to see a pullback in the overall sector. you have to be selective at this point in time and technology, which is why we have a controlled allocation as opposed to momentum from here on out. lisa: a lot of people are justifying equity purchases with the extremely low benchmark yield. if the idea of a broadening rally consistent with your idea that back end rates are going to back up through the remainder of

the year? jason: i think it can be because if you get a backup in rates, that would really require actual improvement in the recovery. so a clear sign that we will get that cyclical recovery, probably have the vaccine solution rolled out by the first quarter of next year. then you could start to see a real, sustainable cyclical recovery. until we get a vaccine, that is not going to happen. if that does materialize, you get a rise in real rates, and you get the other cyclical rallies. i think that is not fully priced yet. the big five tech names are up 30%. the other 495 are down 5%. so there is still scope for this rally to broaden out. that is what we assume, that we get that result, the cyclical return rate, and it is going to broaden out to other sectors of the market. jonathan: great to catch up with you, sir. our best to the rest of the

team. big focus down in washington, d.c. again this morning. when they say progress, i smell pressure. i smell no signs of progress whatsoever come up with the exception of a timeline and a race to get something done. you've heard from secretary mnuchin, saying we are going to reach an agreement before the weekend maybe, possibly. where is the breakthrough? jason: it is like stan -- tom: it is like stan freeburg, the comedian from 50 years ago. rumble, rumble, mutiny, mutiny. i spoke to the former treasury, and he was scathing at how both cardi's -- both parties can't find the middle ground. you get a real affirmation that may be the middleground ground will be very important. jonathan: andy president finally asserting himself, threatening to fly solo if they don't get something done soon. lisa: perhaps that is the

progress, the president saying that he will negotiate with the democrats. that might be the progress. some idea of unity in a party that otherwise has just been really un-unified. jonathan: you know who we haven't heard from? senate majority leader mitch mcconnell. he's been silent because guess what he knows? he can't get the majority of his party on the side of a bill. tom: he's always been very good about that. jonathan: they will have to lean into the democrats a lot harder to get something achieved. tom: i think there is a british equivalent here. mcconnell usually doesn't act until we have the votes. he clearly doesn't have the votes. but what we are hearing, including from kevin, it is really quite important, the urgency. i am going to say this, the urgency into claims tomorrow and the urgency in this jobs report. jonathan: i would agree with you. kevin cirilli joining us in around five minutes. later on the program, ian bremmer, eurasia group

president. equity futures breaking out little bit. good morning to you all. we are higher by 0.6% on the s&p 500. from new york city this morning, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the pictures are incredibly intense. an explosion at a warehouse in beirut was felt miles away and filled hospitals with casualties. reports say at least 100 were killed and 4000 injured. lebanon's government says almost 3000 tons of flammable ammonium nitrate has been stored in the building since 2014. they are not saying whether the blast was caused by an accident or an attack. the white house and democrats are trying to strike a deal on virus relief legislation by the end of the week, according to treasury secretary steven mnuchin. mnuchin says the two sides aren't close to a deal yet, but they did agree to set a timeline.

one of the main sticking points is still the extension of supplemental unemployment benefits. it will be the highest level visit to taiwan by a u.s. cabinet official since 1979, and is seen as a challenge to china. health and human services secretary alex azar will arrive in taipei and the coming days to discuss the global response to the coronavirus. taiwan's response to the outbreak has been widely recognized as among the most effective in the world. in the u.k., a panel of lawmakers has issued a report that is scathing about the way prime minister boris johnson's government handled the coronavirus. it urges johnson to be more open with the british people on travel risks, and says the march 13 lifting of all restrictions on people traveling into the u.k. was in its clickable. blackstone -- was inexplicable. blackstone will buy about 75% of ancestry.com, the business known for family history research and

dna testing. the deal is valued at $4.7 billion, including debt. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

sen. mcconnell: the feeling that seems to have been expressed that we would like to get an outcome, i certainly hope we

can. the coronavirus is certainly not over. it is still in a norma's problem affecting commute -- an enormous problem affecting communities all across the country. jonathan: senate majority leader mitch mcconnell. is he leading, or is he following in washington, d.c.? alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's your wednesday morning price action. equity futures firmer, heading north by 19 points on the s&p 500, up 0.6%. euro-dollar,ket, $1.1839. the story for most people, gold getting comfortable north of $2000 at $2054. just explosive, up another 1.64%. flipping the real yield and plotting gold against the real yield, they are in lockstep. there's no other way to put it.

technically, i think that is cta. jonathan: thank you. i studied hard for that. tom: right now, and he is encyclopedic, kevin cirilli, our ,hief washington correspondent the distance between glenn thompson and conor lamb. you know these are two congressman from pennsylvania. i am going to guess they are scared stiff. what is glenn thompson, the moderate republican, telling his republicans? what is conor lamb, the moderate democrat, telling speaker pelosi? kevin: he is saying he is going to be able to deliver to the type of economic relief that many higher education institutions are needing right now. he is a moderate republican, but also in the backyard of penn state university. he's one of those lawmakers who is heavily influenced by the

battles of higher education in rural communities. tom: this is absolutely critical. what is the urgency of glenn thompson now to go over to legal mcconnell and say -- to leader mcconnell and say, grow up and get this done? kevin: it is incredibly urgent because for rank-and-file members, for conor lamb specifically, who at one point was hailed as the future of the democratic party, and by all accounts, has a bright political future ahead of him, he has to be able to go back to these battleground districts and say that they are providing economic relief not for big businesses, not for wall street, but for the small businesses in their backyard. that is why you are seeing a shift in tone coming from leadership, as president trump has suggested he is going to use executive powder to go -- executive power to go around the halls of congress. jonathan: here's the line for you. if you look for total consensus

among senate republicans, you're not going to find it. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell. what and who do senator mcconnell turn his back on in the next few days? kevin: at this point, he has dug in on liability protections. i feel like a broken record when i continue to say that, but he's also had to form a coalition. there's another remark he made yesterday where he noted that by his count, 15 to 20 republicans thenot on board with republican caucus. he can't deliver an entire caucus right now. that is why these negotiations -- even more so crucial. when 15 to 20 members say they have an issue with this type of stimulus, they are nowhere near the type of unison that typically leader mcconnell wants to see. jonathan: political reporting in the last 24 hours there are

three options on the table for him. action, the payroll tax extending enhanced unemployment benefits by using the money that congress has been assigned to spend, but has not used yet. on those issues right now, is this really doable? kevin: yes. there is this great tool on the bloomberg terminal where you can track, based upon public data, where the money from the last stimulus has actually gone throughout the country. the reason i bring this up is because it really illustrates that it is not just cities that have benefited from this economic stimulus. that is why you are hearing this change in tone coming from 1600 pennsylvania avenue. they know that whether it is in a center county in pennsylvania bronx, you are seeing individuals and constituents

take advantage -- i don't want to say take advantage, but utilize the access to capital that has been made available to them. that is not a republican nor a democratic advantage. that is why the president is trying to specifically say that if these blue-collar workers can't get access to those funds, he is going to have to use executive order while they continue to work out a deal. lisa: the enhanced unemployment benefit that president trump is throwing his weight behind extending is significant because it flies against the calls of summer lukens that have become fiscal hawks. president trump not known as being a fiscal hawk by any stretch of the administration. is he lining up more on the democrat side? maria: on this particular -- kevin: on this particular issue, you are correct. there are many republicans, senator ted cruz, for example, who are incredibly uncomfortable with getting on board with this type of spending. in fact, leader mcconnell has

said he believes those arguments are justified. but in terms of where the president is going, he has to go on the campaign trail and is fighting a tough reelection battle, and he's got to be able to go to many of these states, to workers who are unable to find work right now were unable economy,ck into the through no fault of their own given the pandemic, and he's got to be able to look in the eye and say vote for me again. in order to do that, this is the type of economic relief that is needed. jonathan: some clarity on an important thing, for people outside the united states not following this, how many fiscal hawks are actually standing for election this november? kevin: i would say there's a handful, but i promise you i will get you the exact number. there's a handful in an incredible tough fight. senator joni ernst is the one that comes to mind. she's a republican from iowa,

and is very conservative on the economy. now she is facing a very progressive challenger. so for her, it is interesting because she has got to get the rural iowa vote on board. they are very concerned about government spending. but she also has to get some swing voters and try to push her challenger and portray her challenger is a very far-left democrat socialist. jonathan: great to catch up with you. kevin cirilli down in washington, d.c. not my view, of course. that's just how they put it down in washington, isn't it? tom: it is. it is a real delicate ballet. i thought kevin was incredibly strong there. your student is that on about the pressures they all face. again, get out the calendar. that is why you saw the shift yesterday. we are well into august. jonathan: going home for the weekend, facing the embarrassment of telling people you can't make an agreement down in washington. that is the pressure going into

this weekend after a payroll that could look a little dicey. from new york this morning, good morning. equities advanced 0.6%. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ businesses are starting to bounce back.

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jonathan: the trading week starts on a wednesday. from new york, good morning to you all. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's your price action, two hours away from the cash open. equity futures pushing higher, up 18. the adp report 45 minutes away. euro farmer, the dollar weaker -- euro firmer, the dollar weaker. gold nicely through 2k. broad-based dollar weakness. i cut up with david bloom of hsbc about an hour before this program. he says there is plenty of fight left in the greenback. tom: i think you are dead on. this conundrum of a certain weaker dollar, there is some serious thinking pushing back against the certitude of a weak dollar. jonathan: in the fx market, a

weaker dollar, stronger everything else, with the exception of the japanese and. in the background, it has been really interesting to see what is happening worldwide. a breakdown between china and the united states continues. and everything just stopped yesterday afternoon. lebanon, beirut. we all saw the ugly pictures through social media, and still without a proper explanation as to what happened yesterday afternoon. tom: that explanation may take days. the massive scope and scale of those two explosions. ahmadi leading our coverage there. on thes no speculation definitive world order. ian bremmer of eurasia group. we begin the analysis. we are thrilled dr. bremmer could join us this morning. i am going to start with lebanon. i want to go to henry kissinger's world order, the

wonderful book of a few years ago, where dr. speaks about the kissinger where dr. speaks about the decline of the state. ship ofhey right the what was once the jewel of the levant? dr. bremmer: my god. any of us who have been to beirut know that it is our favorite city in the middle east. it brings together so many different civilizations and cultures. but the government is a disaster. frankly, coronavirus doesn't even hit their top three right now. it is a massive financial crisis , incredible economic , andaction, big corruption now, likely through mismanagement, you see what they have done with the banking system in the sanitation system, it shouldn't surprise anyone that they have no capacity to

deal with hazardous materials. you see the untold depths of swath ofon of a good the jewel of the country end of the region just leveled yesterday. it is horrifying to see. has the law -- has bola -- hez bollah are in the government. how are they going to rebuild in that environment? tom: to go back to your book of 2015, "superpower," we need to make a choice of how we project from istanbul down to those gulf states. what is the choice that a second term trump first-term biden will have to make? dr. bremmer: less involvement in the middle east. biden had a very solid,

noncontroversial tweet yesterday saying his heart goes out to these people come of the united states needs to provide humanitarian aid. absolutely. but compared to when my book came out, the united states is now the world's largest energy producer. we are much less interested in what is going on the middle east then we use to. we are much more concerned about china and the pacific. think it is hard to imagine that the u.s. is going to be increasing its footprint anytime soon. tom: let's move to china then, and the provocative act of a number of the cabinet will attend taipei, maybe the first major visit of a u.s. were presented to 40 years. how will that be taken by beijing? dr. bremmer: less badly than if it was, say, secretary of state pompeo or secretary of defense esper. you are not talking about someone who is a particularly

mandate going over to talk about the response. but we should recognize is, of all of the escalations, this is completely gratuitous. it is completely unnecessary. it is not what the response on ktok, with huawei. we understand why the americans are doing that. with the case of taiwan, it is purely rallying around the flag to drive a spike into china's core interests right before american elections. it makes the next couple of months very dangerous. china will certainly respond. with a showespond of military force in the region. let's keep in mind the anti-chinese sentiment in

taiwan, especially on the back of the new national security law in hong kong, is incredibly high right now. so you really didn't need these tensions. i tweeted last night, let's not start a war over taiwan. we have enough problems in china right now. we didn't need to take this step. jonathan: you understand better than most that the people's republic of china has frozen taiwan out of multilateral organizations. here is a place that seems to have handled this pandemic and tactically. i have just a handful of deaths in a population of 24 million. there's been very little done to find out why taiwan has been successful. isn't it a good thing that secretary a czar is actually going there to find out? you couldr: i think do that much more effectively by

having a lot of engagement at the less than secretary level. you don't need the symbolism of a cabinet secretary to do exactly what you just suggested. also, let's keep in mind that yes, taiwan is not allowed to join the world health organization because china keeps them out, and i think that is an appalling reality. having said that, president trump has said he is withdrawing from the world health organization because they are in the idea that the united states president would leave the who in the middle of a pandemic shows that the argument is probably not at the top of president's agenda here. jonathan: when we talk about things like tiktok, the chinese talk about theft, and people everywhere else basically laughing. you want to talk about the theft of technology?

talk about irony. if you have business in china, you can no longer talk about what is happening in china. i am sure this is something that resonates with you directly because as far as i understand, you have no business in china, and you are able to speak openly about china. you know that if you had business there, you wouldn't be. dr. bremmer: right. i thicket is a real problem. -- i think it is a real problem. what can they say about china because it is going to undermine their business? you saw lebron james, a huge advocate for black lives matter, but on hong kong, he stayed on the p.r. line. not that he knows anything about it, but i think everyone understands it is a big market, and the rules change. they determine what the rules will be. on tiktok specifically, we need to understand it is not just about china's national security issues and their control of data

. it is also reciprocity. the chinese government does not allow key american tech firms to do business as usual in the world's largest data market, with or you are talking facebook, google, wikipedia or reddit. none of them are allowed inside mainland china, with 1.4 billion majority of them online. so why would you allow chinese tech firms to have openness with the united states in that environment? you invoked my book "superpower," but i think one that is more relevant is "the end of the free market." you don't have a global free market anymore. the idea that the unit states is going to pretend that we do and give the chinese complete access to the american consumer base

and database is ludicrous on its face. lisa: there's a question about how markets price these rising tensions. they have been more general in nature, when you talk about 5g or tech predominance. it is hard to price that in. it is easier to price in a trade deal or a trade deal that is falling apart. officials are getting together to discuss the outcome of the phase i trade deal. do you expect it to be thrown out? dr. bremmer: i think it is increasingly marginal to the relationship. time talking to you guys in the last few months, it has all been about what about the phase i trade deal. i understand that if we get rid of it, tariffs are going up, and that is going to affect american consumers. but the reality is it may well

get thrown out in the next three months, especially if trump feels like he is losing as we get closer to the election. but much more concerning is the potential that we really come to blows with the chinese, that the mistakes lead to escalation. then you are not talking about the phase i deal. 10 largealking about swaths of americans travel to china still. will we have to pull our ex-pats out. will baseline trade between the two countries be disrupted? will companies have nontariff moves that make it impossible for large u.s. companies to do business in china? what is the future of apple going forward, companies like that? those things are so much broader and deeper than the continued existence of an important, but still modest and incremental phase i trade deal. what we do know is there is no

phase ii trade deal. jonathan: great to catch up with you, as always. ian bremmer of eurasia group, the president. headlines dropping across the terminal from the president of the united states, in an interview on "fox and friends." there should be debates, but they are planned late. the first debate is scheduled for set timber 29th. we know from -- for september 29. we know this is one of his strengths, the energy of engaging someone one-on-one in a debate, where he has free reign to step in and make them feel uncomfortable. he's had his legs kicked away from them because he can't do the big campaign rallies. he wants to make it count. tom: it really is a wake-up call for me and anybody else about all the processes and the calendar we know about elections. the calendar has been blown up in this pandemic, and the president is absolutely right that if there is going to be a debate, it's got to be before the ballots go out because the way we vote is changing.

jonathan: clearly more comfortable taking on joe biden then jonathan swann of axios. 500 fromp on the s&p new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the pictures are shocking, and so was the aftermath in beirut. that explosion in a warehouse is lamed for at least 100 deaths and some 4000 industries -- and some 4000 injuries. rescuers are looking for survivors today. of flammable ammonium nitrate had been stored in the warehouse without safety measures. a european carmaker is reporting a big hit from the coronavirus. bmw's automotive division posted a 1.8 lien dollar loss in the second quarter. the pandemic forced dealerships and factories around the country to close -- around the world to close for several months. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more

than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it's impossible to know how the next six to nine months are going to play out. my guess is that by the end of

this year, we will still have a substantial amount of unemployment, perhaps percent, 9%, maybe higher. jonathan: the adp report 30 minutes away, followed by claims tomorrow and payrolls friday. that was john ryding of fremont capital. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action cross asset worldwide. futures breaking out higher by almost 20 points, up around 0.6%. gold nicely through 2k. we continue to move higher. in the treasury market, yields are up a couple of basis points on the session, but you see it down by zero .53% -- by 0.52% on the tenure. what a move over the last few months. us: michael kushma is with with morgan stanley, their cio of global fixed income. he's got a pedigree which means

there was just enough physics for physics in become a which is what we're going to do here on a wednesday. i want to talk about inertial force and the grinding grind we see now. thisare hoping to end inner show force of lower and lower yields. how do you mend it, or does it -- how do you end it, or does it just keep going on? michael: i think it keeps going on until central banks call a has basicallyfed said they are unwilling to go below zero unless literally all other policy tools are exhausted , which certainly has not yet occurred. we have seen in other countries where you do go negative, you can end up with lower or negative maturity bond yields. you can keep grinding lower as long as there is some probability that the fed will have to engage in negative interest rates.

just the probability of that happening can keep rates and closer to zero. jonathan: you've heard the argument that in the treasury market right now, there is an asymmetric payoff. that we can only go so much lower in yield, but there are moves higher we could see on the other side up. i am wondering from your perspective, would people talk about replacing treasuries in their portfolio for that reason, what do you say back? michael: there's three reasons yield can go up. one is inflation goes up. two israel rates go up. or -- is real rates go up. or people lose confidence. it is very difficult to see the economy generating higher and laois in/higher real interest rates on its own -- higher inflation/higher real interest rates on its own.

on the other hand, if you can base your currency enough as we have seen in several emerging markets, you can go too far, print too many bonds, and lose confidence in the bond market. that could send deals higher -- send yields higher, but at the -- send yields higher, but that is far away considering the demand from central banks. lisa: i want to underscore something i think you may have been talking about. if the fed had boosted its bond purchases, would treasury yield a higher right now or lower? there's a theory that treasury yields are so low because of fed intervention, and you have a lot of people saying it is because of the real economy. where do you weigh in? dr. bremmer: i think it is -- michael: i think it is the real economy today. back in the spring, there were challenges the treasury market was facing. everyone wanted to raise cash regardless of what their

long-term view was. was a panic attack in treasury markets, but that it became clear the extent of the economic downturn. i think treasury yields may not be as low as they are without fed intervention, but there is no alternative to fed intervention once you lost your policy tools of cutting rates below zero. if they are willing to go below zero, they could've drove them down even further. that theyt that idea engaged in buying treasuries to make sure they are lower faster, getting back to the point, by now they are probably back to where they were today even without a lot of fed intervention. lisa: this raises a question of whether the rally in riskier assets in the pushing to risk your debt they time of rising bankruptcies and a pretty bleak message from treasuries is inconsistent. do you see it as inconsistent, given the fact that you believe

rates be exactly where they are even without fed intervention? dr. bremmer: i don't think it is -- michael: i don't think it is. fed policy is designed to keep real interest rates low, and they are as low as they have ever been. it is right around -1%. the policy tool of central banks and the fed is to drive real interest rates as low as necessary to get the economy going. that itself will keep rates really low and keep people focused on buying alternatives to treasuries like investment grade corporate bonds. if they hadn't done fed buying, treasury yields would probably and spreads would be much wider, but we wouldn't be in as good of a situation. jonathan: got to leave it there. headline coming from the president. the second time we've heard this so far this week.

there's a big job number coming on friday, but it is a long-standing tradition in this country, going back a long time come over the bureau of labor statistics will give the jobs number two the administration the evening before the payrolls number comes out. what is curious about this is there is no evidence he has received that jobs number, but he is talking up a big dubs number coming out on friday. this happened in the summer of 2018, and here we are in the summer of 2020, wondering whether the president has access to the number or whether he just thinks it will be ahead of friday. tom: maybe they will clarify that. i would suggest mr. kudlow would do that. maybe you can get mr. kudlow on the phone there. but this destroys the credibility of people working as hard as they can on numbers that are really difficult to count. of course, michael mckee is an expert on this, and his one day ahead, but still, you are absolutely right. i will just editorialize, it is totally inappropriate. jonathan: especially on a week

where we know how inappropriate the jobs number is area we caught up with his and harris of bank of america, who said his estimate is one million, but wouldn't be surprised with a negative print. that is the spread of estimates going into this one area wednesday is not thursday evening, and thursday evening, even if you receive the number, you shouldn't be talking about it if you are part of the administration until an hour after the number comes out. tom: there's just different ways you do this. i've been in the lockups. i've seen firsthand the second by second tick of dealing with a modern news organization. it is once again just highly inappropriate. i would also say the rules have changed from 10 years ago with the advent of the adp report. the new thursday morning is now wednesday morning. jonathan: the adp report coming out in 20 minutes. right now, positive 1.5 million. in this program right now, equity futures drifting higher, up 20 come in your session

highs. we advanced by 0.6%. coming up, senator bill cassidy from louisiana on this program. from new york, good morning to you will. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> what we are getting now is evidence that the recovery is leveling off. >> i don't think it is a w shaped trajectory. it is not going to be a downturn again. >> the global economy is healing, but there is no vigor to that economic recovery. >> we will see some investors begin to take chips off the table. you are already seeing it in the futures data. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. markets on the move. gold to a new record high. we are seeing yields coming off of the recovery from yesterday.