>> what we are getting now is evidence that the recovery is leveling off. >> we are not seeing a w shaped recovery. >> markets don't like uncertainty. >> you will see some investors begin to take chips off the table. you are already seeing it in the futures data. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance'with tom keene, jonathan ferro -- this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. claims data 90 minutes away. this equity market breaking down a little bit. tom: claims data today, and the market is really out front. we will do a data check here, but there is no question yields have come in. i am going to use the phrase abrupt. there is an abrupt lower yield structure this morning. jonathan: equity futures down

nine on the s&p 500. the long end of the treasury curve outperforming. a flatter curve. the data at 8:30 eastern. lisa: we are looking for jobless claims, as well as continuing claims out of the united states. people are expecting slight improvement in the absolute numbers, but it is not just the numbers. it is the type of job losses, more permanent, less temporary. didn't get numbers from uber and tripadvisor. i find this interesting after hilton posted a loss this morning. also this morning, president trump in ohio speaking about the economy. interested to hear what he is proposing on infrastructure spending, or looking forward, what can actually stimulate the economy, not just prop it up. jonathan: much more still to come on that. in your equity market this morning, here's the thursday morning price action. equities lower in the last minutes, off by 0.3%.

euro-dollarrket, $1.1842. yields down three on the 10 year to 0.51%. in the fx market, in emerging record highlar t for the dollar lira. an unbelievable move that you have been on top of the last couple of weeks. tom: it is idiosyncratic, but not politically. there's all sorts of politics in the levant. but this is a big deal for turkey, and frankly all of europe. euro-lira, i'm looking at the jump in it. the standard deviation move. we are really not out to the

word crisis, but we can say this morning that the lira plunges. jonathan: let's head straight to the capital foreign-exchange and check in with kit juckes of stockton -- of socgen. what are you looking for? kit: i'm hoping we don't get another uptick in new claims, and even more so another uptick in continuing claims, just because this would be an awfully high level of unemployment. there's an awfully big hole still to fill-in. you had a decent number of the data that has said there's bad news on the virus, but out of lockdown, people carry on. the labor market data has a capacity to put a real dampener on that story. tom: i love your morning note, the acuity of it as you look at all of the granular data,

including the claims reported 830. -- the claims number out at 8:30. on the 10 year yield, what does it say to you, and where is the critical 10 year yield? kit: i guess when it goes negative and joins the rest of the planet. but we are in pretty new .erritory some of the data has shown resilience with the wider spread around the united states of the pandemic. but there's a continued hunt for safe assets and a continued belief that rates are staying low for just as far as the eye can possibly imagine.

it isoesn't look as if going away anytime soon. look at to yields. they are just accelerating away. i think that market, clearly we bad numbersed of as opposed to braced for strong ones. lisa: what strikes me is the widening divergence in the ability to lower rates and issue more debt, and the lack of that ability by a number of developing markets. turkey is its own idiosyncratic story, but how representative visit of emerging-market nations -- representative is it of emerging-market nations? kit: we have to be precise about which emerging markets. i think that where we've got ,his year the weakest currency we still have considerable weakness out there for turkish lira, as we do for the brazilian

real. are in muchdonesia the terriblethan three, or the fragile three. three that are together weakened. but if you are dependent on foreign capital, you do not have the ability for aggressive this corresponds -- aggressive fiscal response to the pandemic, and you live in danger of what the global environment is. here we are in august. august is historically not a good month for me to go to the world and borrow money, and this is what we see. jonathan: you are worried about the month of august, aren't you? walk us through what you're looking for this month. kit: we put out a bunch of pieces separately at our shop. the rates guys were worried

about risk aversion in august. the emerging-market guys were worried about risk aversion. the currencies that do badly in august to include the turkish lira, the brazilian real, the south african rand. what does well is the dollar, the yen, and gold historically. i don't know if gold can go up from here. you see a pickup in volatility typically, and therefore uncertainty. what you can see today is the fragile emerging-market widercies can gap incredibly quickly on really no volume at all. tom: i think this is brilliant. it is great to go around the world. , is jerome powell a central banker to the world?

there's a point here where the central bank has to say, ok, the market is finally testing. is that a point for zero? is any point to zero? or is it really they will wait for a negative statistic? kit: i think they have very little choice. the fed has made it clear they are either adding more money or they will wait for inflation to come up. they know the downside risk of the economy is still there. is staying easy. they are there to protect the markets. they came in and delivered massively accommodative policy globally with all of the moves they did on the treasury repo and on the swat program. hugely positive in turning around sentiment. that is weakening the dollar, but it has weakened the dollar more against emerging-market currencies -- against developing

market currencies than against these fragile ones. tom: "surveillance" with you this morning. marcus are on the move before the claims data, which we see here in an hour and 20 minutes. francine lacqua's interview with governor bailey scheduled for the top of the 8:00 hours well. the markets are on the move, but the dollar shows persistent resilience, even within a weak dollar regime. can socgen call weak dollar? kit: once it comes down. at the moment, the dollar is still slightly stronger than it was at the start of the year in trade-weighted terms. it will weaken, but i don't know if it can we can -- if it can until we can stabilize these emerging-market currencies. the fed has done its job making sure that there's no yield

available at all in the united states. the nasdaq has done its job to get equity prices so high, i am not sure if people have the stomach to keep on chasing. this is where the pandemic hurts. can we make the rest of the world attractive to sell the dollar into buying without getting a vaccine or some kind of solution for the virus? jonathan: that is the key question. before we let you go, positive or negative print in payrolls tomorrow? kit: i hope positive. jonathan: the fact that it took a while to into that question speaks to how uncertain tomorrow is. great to catch up with you, sir. kit juckes of socgen. that is the issue, the unprintable nature of the payroll report 24 hours away. tom: it is always unprintable. we got to -- it is always unpredictable. we have got to really make this clear. but the band is not here. it is here. on radio, my arms are way out.

it is enormous uncertainty into tomorrow. jonathan: looking forward to francine lacqua's interview with bank of england governor andrew bailey. they just seem to want to flirt with the negative interest rates and retain the option to do something in the future. i don't think they are anywhere close to instituting negative interest rates. tom: but my point is the market makes you close. jonathan: possibly, yes. and there was a whole sheet in the monetary policy report dedicated to walking us through negative interest rates, the effective lower bound, and what it could mean for the back of england. when you put something like that out, it speaks to the idea that they are nowhere near doing this. much more to come on that part -- much more to come on this program. from new york city this morning, good morning. here's the price action. futures are negative, down seven, off by 0.2%. across asset worldwide, we shape up as follows. in the last 20 minutes, futures gapped a little bit lower and a

bid came into the bond market. 0.52%, to round that up for you. euro-dollar, $1.1836. as we count you down this thursday morning to jobless claims in america, from new york city, this is bloomberg. with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. democrats are demanding more republican concessions for a deal on a stimulus package. senate democratic leader chuck schumer says there has been some forward momentum, but he's calling on the white house to do more. white house chief of staff mark meadows says if the two sides can't agree, president trump may take executive action to extend unemployment benefits and the moratorium on evictions. aitter and facebook blocked video shared by accounts linked to president trump. violated the video policies on coronavirus misinformation.

the president said that children were virtually immune from the coronavirus. secretary of state mike pompeo is signaling that u.s. efforts to banish chinese technology will extend beyond tiktok. pompeo urged companies to bar chinese applications from their app stores. there are fears of a food shortage in lebanon. the massive explosion in beirut destroyed major grain silos, creating a crisis in a country that imports nearly all of its food. it comes at a time where lebanon is suffering its worst economic crisis in decades. the government is trying to get a bailout from the international monetary fund. the richest person in the world has turned a bit of his stock into cash. jeff bezos sold one million shares of amazon for more than $3.1 billion, a fraction of the

amount is holdings have increased this year. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. gupta.ika this is bloomberg. ♪

>> if we don't get some kind of deal which offers some additional support to the millions of americans currently

unemployed, then the economic bounceback is going to be severely compromised. jonathan: that is why the next fiscal steps in washington, d.c. are so important. paul donovan there of ubs wealth management. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's your price action this thursday morning. equity futures lower by six, down 0.2%. in the bond market, yields down by three basis points to 0.51%. tom keene working his magic in getting that fourth decimal point. well done, tom. tom: it's fun. this is the way the street looks at it, folks. jonathan: you explain -- can you expand to our listeners what they are missing out on? tom: years and years ago, it was a reach to go to three, but the street, particularly with the new low rate regime, constantly quotes four decimal points. jonathan: tom keene has been complaining about this for the last 10 years. tom: these are roman numerals.

we like to go cross asset, and also in detail. right now, we go to kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. the silence in washington last night was the president's list of approved debate moderators. i'm fascinated by the president's demand, and frankly intelligent demand, should we have a debate before the mail-in voting begins? that makes a lot of sense to me. how should the democrats respond? early in terms of the voting in mail-in voting, that is precisely the argument that the president's reelection campaign is making. anywaye encouraging possible for there to be an additional debate, particularly one in the month of september. the biden campaign has been hesitant to even engage in this.

they have consistently said that they have agreed to the debates that they had previously agreed lady --that had our that had already been scheduled. i do think as the mail-in voting issue becomes more and more important, there is going to be a broader conversation about an additional debate. tom: let's go to the stimulus right now. i am just going to give you an open question. it is thursday. what happens today? kevin: i was struck by the last seven to -- last 72 hours, hearing that they were trending in a more positive direction. democrats feel they have made some type of concession in saying that they would be reducing the allocations for the u.s. postal service. they have said they were willing to back off. where they have dug in is for state and local governments. meanwhile, the president saying he would be willing to have $400, reduced from the $600, of

unemployment benefits through mid december. he's offering a short-term extension, but an extension that speaker pelosi says is not enough. she wants to see this go well into the next calendar year. but at the end of the day, when i talked to republicans, they say that with the president and secretary mnuchin are offering to pelosi is not just from a political matter, but from a practical one. this is really where republicans are right now. the far flank of the party is saying they would not be able to get on board with anything more large in terms of money allocation. jonathan: this is a self-imposed headline to get this done tomorrow. arguably, it's already a week too late. the deadline is gone. what they face is the embarrassment of going home this weekend without a deal, and what we can see is a huge spread between what the white house is offering on state aid and what the democrats would like,

something closer to $1 trillion. how do you close a spread that wide and 24 hours? kevin: that is really what has been frustrating from both ades' perspective, but from reporting perspective, they have really not been very forthcoming , either side, about specifically where that spread you just mentioned is going to go. we don't know specifically how, from a transparency model, but model of where these funds would go. you look at the last round of stimulus, and there were frustrations about which companies had access to this capital, businesses that were well-connected. you look at that from a transparency perspective, and now you suddenly say, is close to $1 trillion more. there's a lot of questions about it. lisa: to the extent that there is any actual deadline, if

president trump says he is going to put out an executive order tomorrow if there is not a deal reached, how concrete is that? kevin: from a policy matter, that extension of $400 through mid december would be something that would impact a large portion of the americans who have had to file for unemployment during this time. but from a political matter, it also allows him to say that he is a political outsider that was able to bypass congress and congress's inaction. from the biden campaign perspective, they would argue that this is too little, too late. from an economic matter purely, we got some indications from the white house earlier this week that they were signaling there might be some positive economic indicators coming by the weekend , but coupled with the notion that he would also sign aecutive orders, that sets up day in which the president would

be able to say, look at the direction of the economy, and be satisfied with the recovery. jonathan: just incredibly frustrating to fall into the trap of using the language that politicians are pushing on us over the last. this word deadline, the deadline for the economy passed a week ago. this is the deadline for them to go home and say we got a deal, we didn't get a deal. tom: we've got to go back to civics, fifth grade. to the point of the executive , iers, speaker pelosi believe, said the legislature has the power of the purse. how do you do an executive order without the power of the purse? kevin: he is going to be citing dire need and the urgency in order to extend this. quite frankly, from a legal perspective, they are also toentially daring someone file against them for on employment benefits.

which democrat would say i am going to take you to court over unemployment benefits right now in the supreme court, and that millions of americans wouldn't be able to get there and implement benefits? -- there unemployment benefits? the thinking would be they would get some kind of deal by the time it ends up in the judicial system, which seems like a long shot. from that matter, they are looking at this as an economic calamity that needs immediate relief and urgency. with a lack of urgency with seen in the past week. jonathan: there has been some money already appropriated by congress in the last bill, and what we got to work out is how much is left. i think that is what the president is leading to. they can access that cash and deploy at the way he would like. tom: this is what you and i have done for years at "bloomberg surveillance." it is the basic idea that the economic data matters. we are going to see that at 8:30. jonathan: and we will see it again tomorrow morning. coming up, lindsey piegza,

stifel chief economist. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: jobless claims 60 minutes away in the united states of america. from new york, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's your price action one hour away from that data. equity futures come in just 0.2%. g10 over the last month doing nicely against the u.s. dollar, with the exception of emerging-market europe. everything else, including the lira and the south african rand, not doing nicely. we had record weakness on the turkish lira a little earlier on. we back away from those levels this hour. this is a set up ahead of the data. 0.52% is your yield. we come down two or three basis points. all-time lows on the u.s. ten-year back in march, intraday record low around 31 basis points. directed closing low earlier this week just north of 50 basis

points, and we are just of those levels now. tom: we just had a little relief on what has been a very difficult hour for the bond 0.5199% on the 10 year yield. a little later on, francine lacqua conversation with governor andrew bailey. lindsey piegza with us of stifel, their chief economist. there are three claims statistics, the weekly number, the moving average of that same number, and then continuing claims get which will you look at hardest? lindsey: i am going to look at the headline initial number because it is going to give us a sense of the momentum in the labor market. claims had been trending down. we had seen that improvement. but last week, we did see that a. i will be looking to see whether

we see further improvement, or if we continue to see a reversal , settingmproving trend the tone for friday's number as we are seeing two very divergent seams. on one hand, we know that businesses were in a big rush to reopen and rehire in july. on the other hand, we have the realistic assessment that the number of covid cases was rapidly rising in the country at the start of the third quarter. many states that had planned to continue to reopen actually halted those plans or reversed course entirely. so we have to see how that plays out in the labor market. i will be looking at that headline initial number. tom: has the state granularity smoothed out? when we got into this crisis, it really varied state to state. is it more rational now, or is there still irrationality state to state? lindsey: there is still that

irrationality, still that volatility. as we saw cases rise in parts of the country, i would expect that to continue to have a disproportionate impact on the claims data in those southern and western states. we still are not seeing this wholehearted national trend. it is still very segmented across the country, as you would expect because this is being driven by a health crisis, of course. jonathan: i am so confused ahead of payrolls tomorrow. the ism came out looking really strong. the sum component -- the subcomponent of employment looking really weak still. lindsey: if you look at the consensus, they are all over the board. the initial claims data picking number ism services looking strong, but leaving that employment component disappointingly week. of course, we had the adp number which came in well below consensus at just 167 thousand. the consensus was 1.2 million. we look to friday's number, but i think it says is the labor

market is still improving. we do expect still continued positive job creation, but at a noticeably reduced pace. we are looking probably around 200,000 to 400,000, and relative to what we have seen over the past couple of months, that will be a disappointing number for the market. tom: did you see how lindsey didn't answer john's question? she's a pro. that was good. [laughter] lisa: she really painted that picture will. it's also a question of the type of job losses, are all job losses the same. the filings remain persistently elevated. we are seeing the composition increasingly towards permanent layoffs rather than temporary ones. 3/4 of all layoffs are considered temporary. how concerning is that to you? lindsey:lindsey: that is a big concern. when we were starting to see these very disappointing components in the labor market, we anticipated a lot of these layoffs, these furloughs

actually come back. what we are seeing now is that many of these businesses that were able to maybe bridge the gap earlier on are reassessing now months into this crisis, saying i simply can't reopen my doors. what we are seeing is that many of these early layoffs are now rolling back into new rounds of layoffs or permanent joblessness. this really is creating a potentially long-term barrier to the recovery for the u.s. economy, and of course, the u.s. labor market. lisa: i am really cool, and last night i spent a long time looking at the way the numbers are going to be composed. jonathan: you don't mean that. no one believes that. not even lisa believed it when she said it. [laughter] lisa: i am just going to put it out there. i looked at which time periods will be counted for the end of limit figures tomorrow. it is really skewed towards the beginning of the month. how much does today's filing really matter for what we see

tomorrow if there is some sort of upside surprise? lindsey: a lot of this data is backward looking, so already is its three weeks behind. good sense give us a of where businesses are in terms of hiring, as we look out further to the second half of the year. of course, it is not perfect data for today's numbers, but it does give us a better sense of what businesses were thinking and feeling early on at the start of the third quarter, and it does paint a picture for what we can expect through the end of the year, and i do's expect -- and i do suspect the number will be positive, but disappointing, suggesting the recovery is going to be much longer, much bumpier than many had previously anticipated. jonathan: do you think the story we faced last time around, that a decade toke repair the damage done? lindsey: i don't know a decade, but it will take several years. the thought that we are going to skyrocket from here, we have

really put that thesis to bed. it is going to be very bumpy, more of a recovery. getting back to pre-pandemic levels is not a 2021 2022 story. it is going to be 2023 or beyond. whether it goes out to a decade, that remains to be seen, but it is going to be several years before we can talk about prepended levels -- pre-pandemic levels. jonathan: how do they formalize that and tie themselves to the labor market, so to speak, which is what mr. kaplan of the dallas fed has told us in the last week? lindsey: i don't know if they necessarily need to formalize that beyond what they have. they have said they are not even going to think about thinking about raising rates until we see vast improvement in the labor market and the broader economy. of course, they could quantify that, but i think we know the general sense of what they look for, a reversal of growth back to 2%, and we are nowhere near

those levels. tom: the data of the next two days, the data we are going to see in 45 minutes, can it make the fed change tact? i just can't believe that. they have been so patient. can it actually adjust their tone? lindsey: i don't think one data point should ever adjust the fed' long-term strategys. it will continue to reinforce the positions on the sideline, so if we see weaker data and the claims data we are awaiting, that reinforces the fed's position that they will remain on the sideline, keeping these lending and liquidity programs in place, keeping rates near zero levels for the foreseeable future. but again, i don't see any one data point changing that strategy. lisa: one data point and one highlight has been the 10 year hitting a new low this morning of -1.09%.

do you see this as baking in a viable path towards inflation over the long-term that perhaps is not being fully appreciated another asset classes, or do you think this suggests the fed will continue to suppress yields even lower? lindsey: i think the fed will continue to suppress yields even lower, and they have said that inflation is not a concern for the committee at this point. they are looking out to the economy. they are looking up to the global economy. demand is so depressed at this point, with really no improvement in sight, that inflation is not one of their concerns. their concern is getting the economy back on track and helping to bridge the economy during this unprecedented crisis. jonathan: great to catch up. lindsey piegza of stifel. lisa, so cool. i have never seen someone get so excited about real yields in my life. [laughter] i think a lot of people probably

thought that was cool, your little tiktok dance. lisa: not my son. he was embarrassed. he said you did it wrong. jonathan: what was really embarrassing, walking on the street the other day with tom keene. i put on my black mask. tottenham spurs mask. do you have that with you? tom: i sleep with it on. jonathan: wow. what does mrs. keene think of this? lisa: she's living the dream. tom: exactly. [laughter] hi estimates right now in our survey. we will continue to update it. the low, -600,000. what is so important here, you make jokes about the mask, you know what? i got used to the mask. are we going to get use to 9%

and implement rate? jonathan: i hope not. i hope nobody gets used to that. but year-end, if you look at the forecast from the likes of the federal reserve, that is where they expect us to be. we are up against 10%. tom: i'm hearing in the 10%, maybe low nines, but even some numbers around 11%. but forget about that. nobody knows. am i wrong on that? jonathan: i agree with you. no one knows anything about anything. look at the bank at woodland today. do you think bait's book -- the .ank of england today do you think they displayed any conviction at all? tom: we seen all sorts of proprietary research, and people i think really noted there stare atvery serious negative interest rates. we are not doing that in america. jonathan: we will hear from bank of england governor andrew bailey at the top of the hour, on bloomberg tv, bloomberg

radio. equity futures down six on the s&p 500, down 0.2%. from new york city this morning, good morning. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. both democrats and republicans are looking at the clock as they try to negotiate a new stimulus package. democrats want more concessions .rom the white house white house chief of staff mark meadows warns that president trump may take executive action if there's no agreement on extending those jobless benefits and the moratorium on if action. the trump campaign raised a record $165 million in july. that beats the $140 million opponent joe biden raised, the first time the president has outraised his dim a credit rival since april. -- his democratic rival since april.

warns thechs development of the coronavirus vaccine could upend financial markets. the increased probability of an improved vaccine by the end of november is underpriced by equity markets. goldman sachs forecasts that one palatability -- one possibility is a selloff in bonds and a rotation into cyclical stocks. bausch health says it will spin off its eye care business. unit is growing faster than the core pharmaceutical operations. and cooper reporting a deep reporting ad uber deep plunge in earnings, expect it to be overshadowed by drastically will lower demand for its core business. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake,

powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. gupta.ika this is bloomberg. ♪

>> if you are in a world where is largest economy

authoritarian, you are not in a free economy anymore. jonathan: good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action. equity futures down nine on the s&p. we have a payrolls report coming tomorrow morning. jobless claims around 43 minutes away. yields head south to 0.51%. in foreign exchange, there's the move on the turkish lira. lira just off of all-time highs. 2.5% is the move today alone. tom: we've got the right guest. piotr her to bring in e on the lira. i've actually seen the map at the imperial war museum. the french got limit on that got

lebanon. the french asked the french got lebanon -- the french got lebanon. the french got the levant. , and itthe story now really shows the broad instability of the levant all the way up to his temple. jonathan: the problem the -- way up to istanbul. jonathan: the problem the international community has no is you can't just throw money because this is on the brink of becoming a failed state. i don't know how much faith there is at the moment. tom: there's a different fragility in lebanon, but you also see it with the complexities of turkey as well. jonathan: turkey not looking good this morning. that's for sure. matys joins us now, rabobank emerging market strategist. you and i usually only catch up when something like this happens, and it speaks to the frequency of how often these kind of things happen in turkey. what is different about this moment?

that thereuld say are lots of similarities with what we witnessed in the summer of 2018. the turkish lira is falling quite precipitously, and the central bank faces the same major dilemma as on previous occasions, where interest rates raise quite substantially by a few hundred basis points. the main difference between is the2018 and right now government was appointed to slash interest rates aggressively and had the job of convincing president erdogan it was the right thing to do. my concern is he will find it so difficult to commence president erdogan that turkey may come dangerously close, or perhaps beyond the point of no return,

and we are going to witness a full-scale currency crisis in turkey. tom: what does a full -- jonathan: what does a full-scale currency crisis actually look like in turkey? me, we would see 10 or even around higher. we would see turkey's residence running toward the banks to withdraw dollars because suddenly, trust in banks may evaporate. in my note, i emphasize that trust is one of the most important indicators to watch in coming weeks or even days. as we know, the central bank currently relies on record high dollar deposits from commercial banks to replenish falling

ethics reserves. so if there is a run on a bank in turkey, important to emphasize no such warning signals yet, but if the scenario were to unfold, then dollar-the dollar-lira, we would see it significant lay higher in completely uncharted territory. tom: talking emerging markets matys ofr rabobank. tell me what turkey does. they have a dollar-based financial system and a lay rep -- and a lira-based financial system. how do they survive this currency collapse? turkishhe good news is houses and corporate's are relatively prepared. they hedge against even weaker lira as reflected in record

high dollar deposit above $200 billion. so they are prepared. that said, there would be tremendous pain nevertheless even ata weaker lira, current levels, is going to have significant inflationary consequences at a time when 12%ation is at around 12 and likely to remain in double-digit territory, which in turn is going to keep real interest rates deeply in negative territory. this is one of the reasons why turkish lira is so vulnerable. lisa: zooming out a little bit, turkey is its own case, but i wonder how representative it is of other emerging markets that have high foreign currency exposure. this statistic really struck me, that the turkish central bank spent more to support its currency in the first six months then all of 2019. you're seeing the foreign

currency reserves decline. how much of a common story is this? lira definitely to a large extent decoupled from other emerging market currencies. july, for most of them, was actually a very good month, so there are some great opportunities in em. turkey is a specific story. i think it is a lesson. othera warning signal to influential leaders not to interfere in monetary policy. we central banks alone, and make sure that they do their job properly. my concern is that at the time when central banks cut interest rates to record low levels, and more importantly started using quantitative easing, there's going to be far more political

interference in monetary policy. so i hope that politicians and other em countries will refrain from trying to influence monetary policy, and turkey is a very good lesson. jonathan: i have a feeling we will be talking again soon on the situation in turkey. piotr: i hope so. thank you for having me. jonathan: equity futures ahead of the opening bell, we break down in the previous hour. an hour later, we cap are little bit lower 11 -- a little bit lower again, the s&p off by 0.4%. no drama here, but just starting to build ahead of the opening bell. yesterday just 2% away from highs on the s&p. tom: you nailed it, there's no drama in the equity dynamic right now what you see in the bond market and selected foreign-exchange. i would say there is drama and gold. i don't know what to make of it, other than that i can't afford gold.

i am looking for an entry point. i can't find the door to tiffany's. jonathan: that is a consistent thing on this program, and has been for a number of years. up next, governor bailey of the bank of england. looking forward to that conversation on bloomberg. ♪ you doing okay?

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that's why we're helping you stay ahead and adapt with a network you can count on, 24/7 support and flexible solutions that work wherever you are. call or go online today. >> what we are getting now is evidence that the recovery is leveling off. >> i don't think it is a w shape trajectory. >> the global economy is healing, but there is no vigor to that economic recovery. >> markets don't like uncertainty. >> you will see some investors begin to take the chips off the table. you are already seeing it in the futures data. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. an extraordinary week and a very important thursday. in 30 minutes, the claimst