g you stay ahead and adapt with a network you can count on, 24/7 support and flexible solutions that work wherever you are. call or go online today. >> what we are getting now is evidence that the recovery is leveling off. >> i don't think it is a w shape trajectory. >> the global economy is healing, but there is no vigor to that economic recovery. >> markets don't like uncertainty. >> you will see some investors begin to take the chips off the table. you are already seeing it in the futures data. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. an extraordinary week and a very important thursday. in 30 minutes, the claims report on the jobs data -- the claims

report, and the jobs data tomorrow. without a doubt, to of the greatest mysteries we have seen since february. we can't emphasize enough the imports of this claims data. jonathan: we really hope we see an improvement after things went the other way last week. later tomorrow, we get the payrolls report. unpredictable. that is the word you would here again and again. tom: lisa, i am going to go back to your bond work for years. there's a point always where you switch from yield dynamics and analysis to a price study, and it really is beginning to feel to me right now that all the media and the experts in the pundits are beginning to look at price, not yield of bonds. lisa: i think you underscored one of the most important questions in the bond market this week when you asked, is it the real economy driving yields solo or is it the federal reserve? i think that is a key question going forward as we see the recovery stall out.

can yields go lower not because of the fed promising to buy bonds, but because people don't have faith in the of is economy? 0.5183%.10 year yield, we have been focused particularly in the last hour on the turkish lira. right now we are at an awful risk if we don't get to this important conversation from a lead central banker. jonathan: well said. central bankers will offer you a forecast, and then the balance of risk. the risk around the bank of england forecast heavily tilted to the downside. francine lacqua catching up with bank of england governor andrew bailey. take a listen. gov. bailey: the things we've looked at are broadly further q. week -- further qe, negative rates, and forward guidance. francine: so yield curve control has not been discussed gov. bailey: that has not been discussed?

-- has not been discussed? it is interesting. we have preferred to look at quantitative easing and forward guidance as tools in that respect, but i would make the point that we will go on looking at the toolbox. nothing is fixed, but it is not in our planning at the moment. i think it is true that when you look at the experience of other they appear to have worked more effectively in the recovery phase. , however, qualify that a bit by saying i think there's a tricky identification issue at that point as to what extent it's negative rates that are driving the recovery of the banking system, the lifting of the release of provisions, and therefore the ability to lend, and what extent that would have happened in away. it is a rather tricky issue in that respect. the evidence is there, but it is

a little bit hard to identify the causes. francine: but in terms of sequence, it is not something you would rule out? it could happen? gov. bailey: definitely. they are in the box. there are other central banks that have said it is not in the box because there systems have different properties, so they draw different conclusions. they are in the box. we are not considering using them at the moment. tom: the governor of the bank of england with francine lacqua. this is an important statement by him, and as you mentioned earlier, this focus on negative rates, forget about that. it is the focus on the dynamics of lower yields. jonathan: flirting with a negative interest rate. they are in the box, but we don't want to use them yet. i don't think they are anywhere near to deploying negative interest rates at the bank of england, just going through the monetary policy report. there's no conviction, no consensus on this issue. esearly, the governor se

a benefit in continuing to flirt with the concept, even if they don't deploy it. tom: this discussion is about the commercial banking industry, and that is where our next guest really fits in. the ramifications of this econ econo-babble.is jonathan: bloomberg's marcus ashworth joins us now. where is the effective lower bound for the bank of england? now.s: 0.1% where they are the only thing they should think about lowering is the provision for banks to reach into a pot of the small andr medium enterprise scheme. that they could toyed with to give a boost to bank lending. they've listened to commercial banks and put out an unremittingly pessimistic

forecast in their results season that going negative in interest .ates would be disastrous they have listened. bailey is saying they are going to keep negative rates is one of the tools. no they are not. in allbeen brought out but disastrous second wave covid , where maybe they might have to reach for anything, but i think current account deficits do not suit negative rates. a stark difference between london and new york versus continental europe. david landau has been brilliant on this at deutsche bank. with our money market funds, our fluidity of short-term paper, it is a different dynamic, isn't it? marcus: absolutely, and we have a huge insurance business in the

u.k., along with a pension fund. this is disastrous to the savings industry in a way which the european banking sector which has no other option. they never bailed out the banking sector. they had to take rates negative because they had nothing else they could do, and they wanted to keep the euro weak as well, which is the real reason behind qe and negative rates. they need to move on and focus on the specifics of helping the banking sector. it is now looking at much more specific solutions for what is obviously what the commercial banks think is a disastrous economic scenario. this forecast doesn't make a lot of sense and is running the risk of making it look rather full dish. lisa: perhaps -- rather foolish. lisa: perhaps some of those more

specific prescriptions are in the box. jonathan: you sound like a central bank, seriously. lisa: i am going to play that clip tonight on repeat. i wonder what the trigger is to deploy some of those tools. i am going to continue with this. [laughter] to ruleno one is going easing something out in that sense. he's right that they should play this were put up with the markets -- this rep. dunn: -- rope-a-dope with the markets. it is only the gilt market which is down and negative territory, pulling some short sterling futures rates down. it is because there is so much qe from the bank of england. it is like alice in wonderland stuff. they've already got what they want it to achieve, which is a flat curve, lower yields, and

they want to keep the so-called potential negative rate as fully nothing to believing it is a possibility. it isn't. jonathan: do you want to answer that? [phone ringing] jonathan: i think that's governor bailey. what is he saying? tom: i was ordering pizza. continue, jon. jonathan: you mentioned the possibilities to flirt with negative interest rates. what are they? marcus: it upturns the natural law of money, collapses net interest margins to such a level where people savor the kill, the positive rates will fall, and people seeing these lower rates .ctually end up saving more the only reason the european central bank that it is because they had no other option. likewise, the back of japan. you look at both of those

economies, it is hard to see a real positive impact that negative rates have had. they do it only to boost lending. particularly in the current account deficit economy, you run the risk of having no support whatsoever for sterling. sterling would collapse. jonathan: so what is cable doing at $1.3153? [laughter] dinghy sterling is a bobbing around the atlantic. it is all about the weak dollar, and to some extent, the surprisingly and welcome strength of the euro. the u.k. value is not relevant here. it is just being pulled around by two bigger forces. jonathan: good to catch up. marcus ashworth there of bloomberg opinion. story, market, this euro marcus wrote about this this morning. euro-dollar approaching $1.20. i think we are back down to

$1.1850. at some point this becomes a problem for madame lagarde. this is a set of mixed opinions on dollar weaker, other things stronger. what does that due to their more open export economies? it has been a german issue for year, going back decades to win the lebanese pound actually was one of the strongest currencies in the world. there's a real dynamic here about what happens with a weak dollar. can we guarantee that? i don't think so. jonathan: one thing i do know, and 90 minutes, the data begins in the united states. jobless claims in the u.s., followed by payroll tomorrow morning. good morning to you all. equity futures down 11 on the %.p 500, down 0.3 euro-dollar just a touch softer. inthe 10 year, yields come

to 0.183%. weakness in e.m. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ritika: democrats are demanding more republican concessions for a deal on a stimulus package. senate democratic leader chuck schumer says there has been some forward women time, but is calling on the white house to do more -- forward momentum, but is calling on the white house to do more. white house chief of staff mark meadows says the president may take executive action to extend unemployment benefits on a moratorium on eviction. twitter and facebook locked a video shared by accounts linked to president trump. both said the video violated policies on coronavirus misinformation. in the clip from an interview, the president said that children were virtually immune from the coronavirus.

secretary of state mike pompeo bans ofling that chinese technology would extend beyond tiktok, encouraging barring chinese applications from app stores. he said they pose significant threats to american personal --as'-- two americans threats to americans' personal data. there's concern about a food shortage in lebanon, which imports most of its food. the government is trying to get a bailout from the international monetary fund. bausch health says it will spin off its like your business. it will break apart the company that previous management had together through acquisitions. bausch health's eye unit is growing faster than the core pharmaceutical operation. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> what we have to get comfortable with as investors is the fact that zero yields are really a secular phenomenon we are going to have to contend

with for the foreseeable future. jonathan: that was pimco's jerome schneider on zero yields for the for siebel future -- for the foreseeable future. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your data 12 minutes away in the united states of america. s&pty futures off on the 0.3%. on the tenure, yields lower to 0.52%. a bit of weakness on the dollar euro. tom: ready for that data. there's no question we are seeing the bond market link and with what we will see with this data, and the jobs report on friday. right now, we want to bring in one of the most prescient people we speak to. paulsen is out of iowa state and is one of the great voices of the midwest on the nation's finance and economics. we are thrilled that jim paulsen

can join us. i know that jon wants to talk claims with lisa and out of the other stock mumbo-jumbo. i want to talk about the virus and how all of a sudden, i am seeing the headlines of thing into the rate the west of this -- great middle west of this nation. what do you observe out of the leuthold territory? jim: we've actually been good here. andad a spike earlier, too, seemed to get it under control. although cases have come up here, i think a lot of it is testing, and we haven't had a big increase in deaths. we are pretty good at wearing our mask here and trying to do .ll we can to keep that bay we are a little worried about restarting school and what impact that may have come of it upside of that, i think we are doing pretty well so far. jonathan: you know when a man is

in cash for the past decade or two or three, he starts talking about the stock market as a stock mumbo-jumbo. tom: you've got that right. [laughter] an iowabo-jumbo is state term, i'm pretty sure. jonathan: how does the stock market respond if the data goes in the wrong direction at 8:30, and again tomorrow morning? jim: i think badly. if it is truly an outlier to the agative side, i think we get period of pullback. but i think it's got to be a true outlier, not just somewhat disappointing. there's so much air in this data. when we are talking about millions every month or every week, you've got to have a pretty big ever to make that

stand out. even the adp report, which came in way low, and they revised the previous month up. i think a big movement on either side of forecast could have big impact in the short run. goes think whatever way it , there is still to me a fair amount of positive momentum going on with other were, whether you look at what is going on with manufacturing and service sector ism's, for example. although it is going to have a lot of short-term impact potentially on the stock market, i think it could burn itself out against other data, and with national case of the virus coming down, you could see some start on the ground data to improve again as we move into august. jonathan: let's talk about where some of this money is parked. you mentioned $5 trillion of money in money market funds. what will it take to tease some

of that money out of something that has if in you nothing right now -- that is giving you nothing right now? jim: i have just been amazed by the wall of worry we have and the defensive behaviors when we have a stock market up 50% from its lows in a very short time, and you still have people holding almost $5 trillion of money market funds are zero yields. every month, there's a chronic inflow into bonds at 50 basis points on the 10 year and an outflow from stocks. we've got the american association of independent esters -- independent investors at one of its lowest levels in history. it is pretty amazing, and it is hard to see what is going to change that. but i think one thing that would certainly do that, or help, would be a new high in the overall s&p 500. lisa: so new highs beget new highs, basically. jim: that could change the headlines, you. lisa: when we talk about the

balance of risk, central bankers risks isalance of to the downside. investors say it is to the upside, this idea that you could get better-than-expected data, or if it underperforms, central bankers and policymakers will come out with a bazooka and blow it away to make way for new highs. is that equation shifting based on how you said a negative surprise would be negative, full stop? jim: i think it could be if it is bad enough, but i think it is short-term. i think we have started the new economic recovery, and probably the biggest thing that gives me optimism is the massive vot that was created by this pandemic in terms of the economy. we had record-setting collapse in gdp, record-setting collapse and inventory drawdowns, a record rise in the personal savings rate, a huge drop in

earnings, a record rise in unemployment. that is all terrible, but what that tells me is we have so much room in the next few years to improve the economy again. imagine the operating leverage for a company if we move that unemployment rate from double digits back to 6% unemployment again. that is incredible earnings ability. now we are going to do that with virtually no inventories on the books and whittle down to the bare-bones. this is how recoveries start. it is not surprising to me that this bull market so far is moving very closely with the 1982 and the 2000 bull market. the other two recessions that created the biggest double-digit unemployment rate in postwar history, in other words, the vots, those were followed by really nice and prolonged bull markets.

i think this is going to be another one. jonathan: fantastic to catch up. equity futures down 10 points on the s&p 500. on the nasdaq, a6 day winning a six -- on the nasdaq, day winning streak. the kbw banks index down 31% year-to-date. tom: thank you so much for mentioning that. i look at this yesterday. the banking dearth is just stunning. i don't know what it means about the usual mumbo-jumbo of net interest margin and the rest of it, but the fact is the banks aren't participating. you can see it on the bloomberg screen. jonathan: that is some really good promotional to serial -- promotional material, you know that? [laughter] lisa: mumbo-jumbo. jonathan: coming up on this program, a serious conversation about the economic data five minutes away, jobless claims in america. will we see some improvements as

we look ahead to payrolls friday? looking ahead to catching up with the brilliant neil dutta. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: equity futures down .25%. claims data five seconds away in the united states of america. this is "bloomberg surveillance." with the numbers, here is michael mckee. michael: just loading up the numbers from the department of labor. waiting for it to refresh. the forecast was for 1,400,000. we are getting 1,186,000. a drop in the number of jobless claims during the week that ended august 1. continuing claims come in lower as well good 16 million -- lower as well. million the from 17 week before. looking at the overall numbers column -- looking at the overall

thatrs, the pandemic aid goes to self-employed contractors has dropped significantly the week of august 1, six hundred 55,707 down from 909,000 the week before. the total number of people getting benefits, which is two weeks behind, is up. 31,308,000 up from 30,813,000. that is two weeks ago. it looks like as we got to the end of july, we saw some improvement in the labor market. we will see if that translates into any good news in the jobs report. the jobs report the week of july 12. it may not be reflected in this payrolls report if things are getting better. jonathan: the bounce off the lows of the equity futures. we have to look at the trend. this is encouraging. last week was little bit worrying we were starting to go

on the wrong direction. what is your take on things at the moment, the trajectory, the direction of travel? michael: i would want to see a couple of weeks, but it is better news we have moved this way. we know it takes a wild for the states to process applications. people were out of claims that had to get back in, that might take a wild. -- that might take a while. if they were not reviling, -- if they were not really filing -- if they were not reviling -- if they were not refiling -- tom: michael mckee knows you want to have a lot of data if you make an assumption. i see a lot of data from early june and the beginning of a trend toward a better american labor economy. did that trend to start with the stimulus? outhat how we took the kink of the claims report?

michael: if that is the case it probably did start with the stimulus at the ppp program, which probably did help people back onto payrolls. the problem we have with enough high-frequency data is a get the home-based report, which survey small businesses, and you get the census bureau number they are doing a special survey. we see a lot of job losses but what they are not telling us about is the job gains, the labor market could always pull a turn. we do not know what the balances at this point. so far in the payrolls report it has come out in favor of more jobs returned. i'm not seeing created, but returned, then we lost. lisa: one of the big questions is at what point will we reach some sort of stasis where we can understand the permanent nature of some of the layoffs. are we getting any sense of what the persistent level will be for a prolonged period of time or is it too early? michael: it is too early to get

a feel for what the level will be. we'll talk about this on jonathan schoop coming up at the top of the hour -- on john's show at the top of the hour. the number of people on temporary layoff is falling. the question is where do they off and how many were laid because the companies went out of business? it is too hard to know right now. anecdotally we see reports a lot of companies are doing that. a lot of layoff announcements. a big change in that. up 576%. tom: i saw that, that is grim. michael mckee, greatly appreciated. the intraday start speaks volume. i spiked up from the ugliness of last two hours. jonathan: a bounce off the bottom. almost unchanged on the s&p 500. similar moves on the bond market. a little bounce off of session lows. going into the payrolls report tomorrow morning. us, greatdutta with

optimistic boys over the last decade or so. this was a relatively optimistic statistic. we are beginning to set up a set of data points that shows some trend towards healing. is that what you observed? neil: i do. if you look at the jobless claims number today, the nonseasonally adjusted claims -- the seasonals matter a lot. the nsa number dipped below one million. that is something to keep an ion. that is a positive development. i think the virus, this is something jay powell said, the fed statement hands. the course of the economy reflects the virus, and we note the virus spread more rapidly across the country starting in the middle of june, and it is coming under some control, some b a bit. beginning to eb

i think the labor market hit a pothole in july, and we also know there are still a bunch of sectors doing reasonably well, all things considered. auto sales picked up better than expected. look at any chart tied to the housing market, whether that is ,omebuilders or whirlpool they're all showing strong recoveries. that is mirroring the recovery we are seeing in home sales. there needs to be in inventory restock some time. that will support manufacturing. i think activity is doing ok. the labor market hit a pothole in july, but historically the labor market follows gdp and you should expect labor market activity to accelerate in august. jonathan: -- tom: read and green on the screen. read in the dow and the nasdaq 100. what is your unemployment rate

statistic for tomorrow? neil: i think another slight tick down. the thing about the unemployment ,ate is as you get to the fall labor force participation may not, as much as it has been because parents will need to juggle work from home arrangement and their children's schooling. you see a scenario where the labor force participation rate is not coming up that much, but the upshot of that would be the jobless rate falls more than expected. that is something people need to keep in mind, and whether that leads to more wage pressure to those that are working. obviously it is hard for parents that physically cannot get to work to exert downward pressure. that is something we should be keeping in the back of our minds. if you look at something like the labor differential, consumers feel relatively buoyant about the jobs market

given some of the data we have seen, and that would point to an unemployment rate that probably goes below 10% by a few months before the end of the year. jonathan: nasdaq futures positive on the session. the s&p just about erasing the losses of the morning. you mentioned some of the seasonal effects. let's talk about that with regard to the payrolls report. how should we navigate the numbers tomorrow? neil: the most obvious is the state and local government peace. forced state and local government layoffs much earlier in the year that is normal. you typically see big seasonal drop-offs in june and july. sooner,ably got that with disproportionate declines in state and local government payrolls over the month. if nonseasonally adjusted state and local government employment is flat, the seasonal effect will probably at least 800,000.

this is one reason you should be -- to drawto use conclusions about nonfarm payrolls because the state and local peace will show a large -- lisa: you were talking about consumer spending. i am wondering how much the expiration of enhanced unemployment benefits factors into this. everyone was talking about how crucial this was for the continuation of it in order for the economy to remain up. now it has expired. no deal insight going how important is it that there is a deal or you have to change your outlook? neil: it is definitely something i am worried about. i think everyone is worried about it. you mentioned no deal is insight. obviously the markets are disagreeing with that. the markets do see some deal insight, otherwise why would they be rallying on the expectation -- i would take

issue with the idea they are moving further apart. i think they are moving closely. backusly people will pull ahead of the benefits expiring, which is one reason you assume some stalling out on things like credit card spending and long-term consumers over last couple of weeks. i think the u.s. has great fiscal capacity at the moment, so there is no excuse not to extend them. i agree. it is certainly a downside risk, but i think it will get resolved to some degree. jonathan: great to catch up with you. neil dutta, thank you. to summarize, the labor market is a lagging indicator, and the ism we had yesterday, the nonmanufacturing ism, the employment component was soft. the new orders component was really strong. i think for the likes of neil and others, that is a historic site -- that is an encouraging site.

the equity markets out in front are the technology markets of america. it has been extraordinary to see. you mentioned how many days in a row the nasdaq has been up. i would suggest jobs are lagging , except it is an election year and job so be front and center for the politics. jonathan: it is real for people. it might up real for markets, but in people's personal experience it is painful. tom: better said than me. jonathan: the s&p 500 unchanged. the data improves a little bit. the president says tomorrow we will see a big number. i guess we will see. here is the cross asset price action getting with equities and s&p 500 futures. erasing the loss of the morning. now dead flat on the session. euro-dollar 1.1855. treasuries nicely bid, we give some of that up, now down on the 10 year. the turkish lira cannot get a

break. record lira weakness in today's session. ism new york city, this bloomberg surveillance. with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. democrats and republicans are looking at the clock as they try to negotiate a new stimulus package. democrats want more concessions from the white house to meet an end of the week deadline for a deal. mark meadows warns president trump may take executive action if there is no agreement on extending those jobless benefits and a moratorium on evictions. the trump campaign raised a record $165 million in july. that beat the 140 million joe biden raise. it was the first time the president has outraised his democratic rival since april. the trump campaign has been $82 million on tv ads, compared with

49 million dollars for joe biden. the bank of england has arranged the prospect of cutting interest rates below zero, but only after the coronavirus crisis has packed. bloomberg -- has passed. bloomberg spoke with andrew bailey. >> negative rates are in the toolbox but we are not planning to use them. we coat -- we prefer to look at quantitive easing and forward guidance. i would make the point we will go on looking at the toolbox. nothing is fixed forever. ritika: you can see more of our interview with governor bailey on the bloomberg terminal, bloomberg.com, and throughout the day on bloomberg television. goldman sachs warrants development of the coronavirus vaccine could attend the financial markets. the possibility of improved vaccine by the end of november is underpriced. the one possibility is a selloff and bonds and rotation out of

technology into cyclical stocks. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

isthe u.s. problem on policy not about getting the deal and next week. i think that is likely. i think the problem is about where we are a year from now in

al policy.isc jonathan: i'm not saying tom keene has favorite, but if he had a list of favorite economist , i think bruce would be on it. i'll be catching up with kathy jones in about 15 minutes on bloomberg tv. tom: wonderful holistic is bruce kasman, and kathy jones gets it done as well. an interesting dynamic in the markets today. to give us perspective, from blackrock, marilyn watson with us with a wonderful transatlantic view. i look at the bond market, there is a point where you switch from yield analysis to price analysis. is all of this about whether it is full faith and credit for the new google 40 year piece, there is a buying frenzy for paper? it isn: i think reflective of the environment we are in now. if you look the huge amount of

carry,for yields you can you look at the an arm is amount of stimulus on the eurozone, from the u.s., at the moment it is where the investors put the money, and it seems when you lead into august, you have more volatility, investors are scrambling to find whether they can find income in yield and where they can put their money. looking at price are looking at the yields, yields are low but they will stay low for a long time. tom: it is great to google 40 year piece, it is up to percent off the two day go offering, which is 1000% per year. i am glad you bought the new google paper. lisa: i levered it up. i bought it along with the oil. i wonder at what point google is

an idiosyncratic story being a strong company enjoying balance sheet advantages, whereas there a lot of investment-grade companies on the cost, fallen angels. i pair that with the idea that average yields in investment grade bonds have plunged all-time lows in the u.s., 1.83%. is this overdone? marilyn: at the moment i do not think it is necessarily overdone. if you look at the huge men of demands and declining issuance -- if you look at the huge amount of demand and declining issuance, we are still in a world which is starved of high giveny yield, and i think the amount of stimulus we are seeing and support from monetary policy, but also expecting something else on the fiscal side, and you look at tech companies, communications that continues to do well darlie pandemic, i do not think --

continues to do well during the pandemic, i do not think it is overdone. investors are still looking for where they can put their money. despite the rally, investors need to put their body somewhere. we will not see a lot of dispersion going forward, as we do continue to see how the economy evolves and the trajectory of payrolls. we do the data tomorrow and have the data today. i think investors have tried to find where they put their money, and at the moment you're not getting any value in treasuries, so where you put them? lisa: in full disclosure i did not buy google or anything. tom: it was apple, excuse me. [laughter] lisa: in case anyone was wondering. where you draw the line? where is the risk too great for extra yield? if you really want extra yield, you can go to turkey. marilyn: you have to take a clear view on your risk reward

profile and your tolerance for volatility. when you are looking at an ,verall holistic portfolio volatility is something you have to take into account. in the emerging markets or in turkey in particular, that is a specific case because of the dollar demand on shore and the huge funding requirement they have for the capital account. theink also looking at markets in terms of volatility, it is important. especially when you're looking at the moves seeing in the market and the tightness of spreads, you look at the quick moves you can see when you pull the trigger. factoring volatility into analysis is important, and howrstanding liquidity and important it is to understand the liquidity of any asset you want to hold. let me: let make -- tom: give you a perceptive.

trading at 98z -- right now. it has traded ugly. lisa, i think you should hold out for 9% deal in turkey. lisa: thank you. tom: i look at all of this and it is great great with allocation that used to be equities and bonds, are you finding bonds are part of an institution allocation, or are they just giving it up because of the yield risk? marilyn: they do still remain part of an institutional allocation, definitely. in termsseen a shift of money in the fixed income space, but they remain a strong part of an institution's investment or a pension fund. when you look at demographics, whether it is in the u.s. or elsewhere, there is an ongoing funding requirement for pensions

, for retirement, and other things. fixed income remains a key part of an institution's portfolio. the risk rewards are different, and when you look at the prospects of the equity market versus fixed income, particularly given all of the stimulus, and when you look at the correlations. july was an incredibly good month for equities and credit, that it is just important to look at the different asset classes and balance the portfolio a little bit. tom: marilyn watson with blackrock. let's do a data check on the way out. the turkish lira which was in prices two hours ago, it has gotten a little bit better right now, 7.25 lire per dollar. that gets my attention. what are you seeing in bonds? lisa: we are seeing the yield rise little bit from the lows. .he 30 year yield down

i am struck by is this idea that naturally yields may be this slow it comes to treasuries , since to the extent the fed is supported markets, it is supporting the riskier assets. it is pushing investors into corporate credit and i am struggling to understand when to fundamentals matter again and how do you gauge that? i thought it was interesting how marilyn was saying she looks at volatility. how do you measure volatility when she is sitting on it? tom: we are in a pandemic. we have seen that, including that important conversation of david westin with dr. fauci. tomorrow is jobs day. we have been doing this for years. no question it is the greatest mystery of anytime i have seen. a wonderful lineup of experts to give you perspective. james glassman of jp morgan will join us. julia coronado, very visible

recently in economics, and we finish up with the financial and bond acumen of jeffrey rosenberg of blackrock. stay with us through this eventful thursday. this, on radio and television, is bloomberg. ♪

♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro.

"the countdown to the open" starts right now. 30 minutes until the opening bell. erasing this morning's losses on the s&p. 24 hours to go with party leadership on capitol hill talking a progress but facing down the embarrassing prospect of returning home this weekend without a deal. the white house had to be offering 400 week -- $400 a week in supplemental unemployment benefits. democrats still pushing $600. is friday. friday is very much a self-imposed deadline. it can move. the brutal reality is it is a week overdue. chuck schumer stating "while we have started to generate forward momentum, we need our partners in the white house to go much further on a number of issues." how much further. in the words of mark meadows, "democrats and republicans are still trillions of part."