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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  August 7, 2020 1:00am-2:00am EDT

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nejra: good morning from london. these are today's top stories. risk off takes hold as president donald trump signs executive orders blocking u.s. residents from doing business with tiktok and wechat. plummet. tencent china's exports jumped in july as economic activity in the rest of the world restarted. but a contraction shows the
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problems persist. the white house and democrats failed to strike a deal on stimulus. the chief of staff says the differences are still significant. july's job report looms. welcome to daybreak: europe. we are seeing red on the screen, but it is china and hong kong bearing the brunt of the losses, and in particular tencent after the president's move to ban tiktok. in terms of what we have been seeing, the u.s. benchmark is getting close to a record this week. global equities heading to a weekly gain, but that perhaps faltering slightly on this latest rise in geopolitical tension. we also see some weakening in the yuan. ae dollar strengthening on broad basis, looking at the bloomberg dollar index. acting like that safe haven again with these tensions and concerns rising. the 10 year yield also reflecting the risk of
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sentiment. let's get more details on that story as trump moves to ban tiktok. the u.s. president signed an exec at of order prohibiting residents from doing any business with tiktok or its chinese owner, beginning 45 days from now. he did the same with the wechat app. plummeted.tencent our reporter joins us from beijing. what has been the reaction to this? what does this mean for u.s.-china relations? have we seen reaction yet from the chinese side? reporter: good morning. this has certainly been what analysts are calling a massive escalation. we have known for some time that trump is trying to force the tiktok sale, but in terms of we chat being hit this way, it has come as a surprise.
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pervasivexpress how wechat is in china. used for business, for payments. it is just everywhere. people are talking about how this might affect americans to interact with in anyses in china or way interact with the two countries through this app. isuess the issue here because it is such a broad order in people are trying to see what it means. shares --eady seeing [crosstalk] nejra: i just wanted to find out, can you explain to us what exactly is banned?
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what behaviors will not be allowed? broadly,alked about it stopping interaction between the u.s. and china, but what does the order actually say? reporter: yes. it basically prohibits transactions, and it does not go further than that. this morning, we have seen people trade on that. it could affect all of tencent's businesses. but the u.s. authorities clarified it is only for wechat. then we saw the stocks bounce back. . think it is an issue we don't know exactly what is happening. there is a lot of speculation at the moment. get the specific details, it is hard to know that is what they are. the u.s. hase, tightened regulations on chinese
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firms listed on american exchanges. what is the expected impact here? is something that has been going on for at least a decade. the two sides have disagreed opening up papers that china says are sensitive. but the u.s. says if you want to list on the u.s. exchange, you must show your audit papers. huge companies such as alibaba and baidu, which are listed in the u.s., there is a 2022 deadline to buy in. the directive has been set. those things still need to be done. it is unclear how regulators on
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both sides will work out the details, if at all. liu, great to have you with us. joining us is the global head of mac are fixed income and currency research at danske bank. great to have you with us. it happens you recently wrote a piece about a new cold war between the u.s. and china. how do these latest developments fit into that, and what does it mean for your investment? a cold ware is between the u.s. and china. this is a long-term thing and has been in the making for some time. the difficulty for markets is, how do you price that? it is something that will have long-term ramifications. there is also some short-term things going on. for markets, you will see this temporary setbacks. i don't think it will
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necessarily change a law. that makes it difficult for it to be priced in markets. this is not abe game changer. but it is simmering there. nejra: there is an interesting piece on the bloomberg by one of our columnists saying that now is the time to swap some u.s. for chinese ones, because they could be considered credit default swaps against president trump's chaotic policymaking. given the investment china is making in 5g and newtek, would you agree with that opinion? guest: i think the timing is extremely difficult. there are a lot of things driving the performance. if you have seen the reports, you have seen this massive upwards price.
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think within technology also. timing is difficult. i think it is a bit early. i think it has further to run. seen inly we have markets from a u.s. perspective, and the earnings report were such an upward surprise the last couple weeks. great to have you on the show. spacex's falcon nine rocket is launching its 10th star link mission, which includes 57 sidelights. the lodge lodge is taking place at the kennedy space center. we will be right back with those images. this is bloomberg. ♪
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this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe."
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spacex's falcon nine rocket is launching its 10th starling commission, which includes 57 sidelights. the launch is taking place at the kennedy space center. looking at it there, waiting for it to take off. it is one of those moments where it feels like the world is watching with bated breath for that launch to take off. we are going to keep coming back to this. we will bring you the launch in just a moment. how exciting for a friday. we might be making progress on that, but here is a place where progress has not been made yet. congress is struggling to agree on a new stimulus deal a week after the $600 a week payment expired. house speaker nancy pelosi slammed the offer from the administration as not going far enough. further delays to fiscal support
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could exacerbate the spike in americans leaving the labor force. applications for u.s. unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest since march. but the july jobs report could show thousands jobless. thomas harr is still with us. we may have to break in at any moment if this launch happens while you are talking. let me ask you, what do you expect -- ok, five seconds to the launch. we will be back in just a moment. that launch coming in two seconds. nejra: and there it is, the spacex falcon nine launch.
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what a thing of beauty for this time in the morning, taking off from the kennedy space center. >> 42nd since the launch of falcon nine. that looks phenomenal. telemetry is confirmed nominal. with therottling down engines. preparing for supersonic and ma ch 2. we got the call out for mach 1. we have throttled the merlins back up. the maximum dynamic pressure. there we are. we are going through the thickest push in the atmosphere, the highest space. as we continue to accelerate, the air density gets thinner. nejra: i was stunned into
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silence for a moment. absolutely mesmerized by those pictures and the voiceover. did not feel i needed to talk over the voiceover. 57 starling satellites, the 10th mission from spacex, is what we are looking at right now. wow, what a way to start our weekend. thomas harr from dots bank ske bankus -- from danks is with us. stunning pictures there. we will hopefully come back to those throughout the morning. but let's get back to the u.s., because we are still seeing a little stalling on the stimulus package. what are your expectations for
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when it actually gets passed and when we actually see a solution, and what do you expect there to be at the end of it all? a reduction in benefits? guest: i think we will see a reduction in benefits. i think we will see a compromise. there is a lot of discussion going on. is it the right thing to do? is it not the right thing to do? i think the market is looking at it, but i don't really think it is a key factor. but the whole thing about the second wave, i see it as a little bit of noise in terms of the markets. not for oil or people, but markets. where growth is going to come from next year. about a little bit of noise for markets. for a long time, we discussed
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markets have ignored the data. to the jobs ahead data today, is this going to be seen as noise, or is there concern that the recovery is actually stalling? to sayfor me, it is hard because we will see months where it will stall because there has been a second wave in the u.s., because it will not continue as strong as the last couple months. but the important thing is where is growth going to come next year? will we have a vaccine? that will be the key thing. how strong the data will be right now, i don't think that is that important for stockmarkets or even credit markets. it is much more the medium-term. the same time, some of the interpretations of the decline in jobless claims a glimmer of hope. you hear opposing views on this.
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how bad do you think it could get for the u.s. labor market, or are you upbeat about the labor market? guest: if i look at the next couple months, will we have a stronger economy in six months time than we have now? i think we will. i think we will get a bit of a setback today, but i don't think that will be the deciding factor. vaccinethe developments, will we have a solution? that will be key. if we get disappointment there, that would be massive for the markets. nejra: sure. for us that together with your view on the fed and where you see euro-dollar going as a result. guest: for me, there is a debasing of the dollar going on. that is what we saw in 2009. in my view, it was engineered by the fed. going tober, they are
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be much more explicit in terms of forward guidance. they will say something like we will target inflation above 2% and we will keep that for a very long time. that means the debasing of the dollar will continue. i think we have probably seen most of the moves against the euro, but i think you will see it more broadly. we have a debasing of the dollar, and i think it is engineered the fed. nejra: you see an elevated risk -f a break of 1.20 in euro dollar. even if in six to 12 months we actually see 1.12. some interesting views to look into. thomas harr staying with us. let's get to the first word news with laura wright. laura: president donald trump is moving to ban tiktok and we chat in the u.s.. he signed an exec of order
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barring u.s. residents from doing business with the app. orders applies to against -- it does not include tencent applications that have nothing to do with the app. boris johnson has pledged money to help with brexit redtape in northern ireland. it will complete the declarations on crossing the irish sea. announcement in programs pay for the people. the u.s. is looking to tighten rules for u.s. companies lifted on american exchanges. a working group is recommending the fcc strengthen regulations across disclosures and auditing. the group did not determine how to enforce the guidelines, but the final penalty for companies that do not comply would be a delisting. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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this is bloomberg. nejra? nejra: laura wright in london. coming up, negative rates are part of the toolbox, but there are no plans to use them yet. we will bring you our interview next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." the bank of england says it will not tighten policy anytime soon, despite the economy showing signs of a faster rebound than expected. governor andrew bailey told francine lacqua that negative rates will be part of the toolbox, but at the moment there are no plans to use them. the pair spoke after policymakers voted to keep the bench make interest -- the
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benchmark interest rate at a record low. further quantitative easing, potentially the use of negative rates. those are the things we have looked at. control is discussed. we do discuss it. athave preferred to look quantitative easing as tools in that respect. point that make the nothing is fixed and forever. that it is not in our planning at the moment. francine: what would it take for you to grow the rates? guest: we talked to a lot of central banks who have done them. it is very helpful and fascinating.
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as you get into this territory, there is a much bigger interaction with the structure of your banking system. obviously, it means the bigger the share of retail t deposits, the more it affects negative rates. we have had our share of retail funding in the banks. the second thing, i would conclude looking at the experiences from the other central banks that the negative rates depends on at what point in the cycle you are using it. francine: would you see yourself using negative rates in a post covid recovery phase to help the economy? guest: i don't know is the answer because we are not facing that situation today. you look at the
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experience of other countries they appear to work much more effectively in the recovery phase. that a, however, qualify bit by saying there is a tricky issue at that point as to what extent it is negative rates driving the recovery of the banking system, the release of provisions, the ability to lend. that would have happened anyway. it is a rather tricky issue. there, but it is a little hard to identify. francine: in terms of sequence, it is not something you want, but it could happen at that phase? guest: definitely. they are in a box. there are other central banks that have set it is not in the box because they have other
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properties and draw different conclusions. they are in the box. we are not considering using them at the moment. andrew bailey speaking to bloomberg's francine lacqua. thomas harr is still with us. after the decision and comments yesterday, we did see the market pullback a little bit on pricing negative rates. do you think the market will start to price in more, the boe favoring qe over negative rates, and what does that do to the curve? guest: i think he stated very rightly, it is a mixed experience in countries like the country i am in here. zone.so in the euro i do not think the bank of england is going to do it. i don't think the fed is going to do it. that will be important for the
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curve and that will tend to lead to that flattening of the curve. they are concerned about the banking system. we are seeing may be the same with the risk in the euro zone, which is already negative. they have clear change during this crisis that we have seen most of the monetary easing in the short end. we are seeing even faster moves, and all the things they are doing, which is targeting more of the curve. nejra: thomas harr stays with us. we have more to discuss because coming up, praise for the fed our interview with our guest, who says there could be inflation. in the meantime, we are seeing a risk off tone in markets with an escalation in u.s.-china tensions. this is bloomberg. ♪ you doing okay?
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from london.orning i am nejra cehic. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe," and these are today's top stories. risk-off take hold as president donald trump signs executive orders blocking u.s. residents from doing business with tiktok and wechat. shares and tencent plummet. china's exports jumped in july as economic activity and the rest of the world restarted but a contraction in imports shows the fragility of the domestic
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recovery persists. the white house and democrats fail to strike a deal on stimulus. the differences are still significant. this as the july jobs report rooms. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." the jobs report will be key perhaps in adding to that debate over whether we are seeing a slowing of a recovery in the jobs market. tone, we see in risk-off in markets based on the u.s.-china tensions. the executive order by president trump banning u.s. residents and businesses from interacting with tiktok and wechat means we see losses in asia on a broad basis but china and hong kong bearing the brunt of the losses. global equities heading for a weekly gain. we will see if that continues into the session. s&p futures point to a lower open. we are seeing a little bit of weakness in the offshore yuan and the dollar broadly strengthening a little bit in today's session which sort of
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reflects that risk-off tone and we are also seeing that reflected to some extent in the 10 year yield, which is slipping a basis point towards the 52 handle. that has gotten close to that record low this week. that 10 year yield in the u.s. now to our top stories, president trump moving to ban tiktok and wechat. the u.s. president signed an executive order prohibiting u.s. residents from doing any business with tiktok or its chinese owner, beginning 45 days from now. he signed a similar order for the wechat messaging app but it does not amount to a broader ban on dealing with tencent. still, shares have plunged this morning. congress is struggling to agree on a new stimulus deal week after the payment expired. republicans are looking to president trump to take executive action. nancy pelosi slammed the offer from the administration has not going far enough. now, the fed's unprecedented intervention at the peak of the pandemic was absolutely necessary according to oaktree
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capital howard marks. he said companies had to be supportive to avoid a potential economic shutdown even if that is giving them fewer distressed debt targets. howard: i believe the injection of that kind of money for liquidity into the economy is likely to have some long-term ramifications and the most likely is some pickup in inflation. but that does not mean it is a mistake. the mere fact that you do has possiblet negative consequences does not mean it is a mistake. they had to do it. if they had not done the things they did, we would be talking about a much more serious economic event. we might even be using the word depression. the words global depression. about ate are talking the moment is largely a macro issue. let's try and focus for a moment
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if we could on the credit markets. howard, can government ever put the genie back in the bottle or is there now something is an irreversible backstop for all but the most unsalvageable of zombie companies? howard: that is the question. >> what is the answer? howard: well, i do not know what they will do next time. obviously, this time, they are providing liquidity to all kinds of companies. some of them are zombies. marketshat term in the to define a company where the cash flow is less than the debt service requirements. in other words, they have to borrow money to service their debt because their operations don't go off enough. that company is not doing well. if it is going to do that for long, it probably should go out of business. the provision of liquidity is keeping them alive. another thing we say is that the fed can provide liquidity but it
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cannot provide solace. it cannot make a zombie company moneymaker. but they can and are keeping companies longer. >> which is to say, for the time being, these companies would not have survived were it not for fed and treasury action. >> many of them, yes. >> yes. howard: a great example is the airlines. the airlines have tremendous ongoing costs every day, whether they are flying or not, and to ground the planes and have them go through a long period where they are not flying and when they are underpopulated, many of them would have gone under. them innt grants kept business. >> do you think that we have crossed the line into state capitalism? howard: well, state capitalism -- we have not passed the line into government ownership of
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businesses, but clearly, there is an unwillingness to let companies go. there is an unwillingness to let the chips fall just anywhere, period hasw, this been a period when the government has been providing peoples and incomes to and businesses that they otherwise would not have had that they need, and without those, there would have been very serious consequences. >> there is a necessary darwinistic quality to free markets that has been staved off to the -- for the time being. every credit investor is wrestling with this because you have to make decisions accordingly about how you think you will generate a return. it is fundamental in this equation. at what point does that need to start happening? howard: we use the term creative
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destruction, which is to say that companies that are unsuccessful should perish and if we waste societal resources keeping unsuccessful companies in business, then there are other parts of the population or the economy we cannot do as much for. marks,that was howard speaking to bloomberg's eric chaska. is still with us. it is a really important point ofks brings up in terms zombie companies. do you agree with what he said about the fed fueling zombie companies and how does it approach the way you view credit in the u.s.? thomas: i think you are right. obviously, the problem is that
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if they had not done it, if many of these companies had gone under, the difficult part is of course how do you shift from solving your liquidity problem to solving an insolvency problem? look liquidityd problem for many companies but they need to deal with the other part. if they stepped away now, you would likely have that the economy would tank so it is probably a bit too early. that makes it difficult. if we focus more on europe then we do in the u.s. in terms of credit, we are probably still constructive because we have the support from central banks. nejra: ok. the other comment as well that caught my attention was him talking about liquidity in the economy likely leading to inflation. a 10 year breakeven right now on a 162 handle, is that the market fully pricing in inflation risks in your view? thomas: no.
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there was a time a couple months ago where both in the u.s. and europe, the market was too depressed in terms of pricing in inflation because why would inflation not come back in one to two years time? the market has underpriced data bit because you have the combination of monetary stimulus and fiscal support. has there been any change in terms of how we look at what has been driving inflation in the last years in terms of technological advance and so forth? for me, it is more a cyclical view. in the next one year to two years, the market has underpriced that but i think we are getting closer to where it should be with 10 year breakeven coming back to where it was before covid-19. the market has been underpricing inflation for the next one year to two years. what does that mean for the real rate, thomas? we talked about it hitting
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record lows. it is at -1.10%. a bit: i think it can go further because they will be aggressive in september. i think we have a recovery so i think the tendency will be for rerate's, for the u.s. to go lower, which will trigger this continuing reflation story, markets supporting equities, we the dollar. i think it will continue because the fed is so aggressive and they will stay aggressive. we have already discussed earlier in the show how your reflation views in the u.s. lead you to see a debasement of the dollar from here, taking euro-dollar higher. our thanks to thomas harr. great to have you with us today. let's get to the first word news with laura wright. laura: good morning. another round of monetary stimulus is expected from the
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bank of england. policymakers said they hit from the coronavirus was shallower than initially shot but the upbeat assessment was lost on the markets. an expectation for more flareups of the virus and msu brexit. governor andrew bailey says he is ready to support the economy as necessary. >> there is a very big downside skew. there's a lot of hard work to be done to get the economy back to where it was. we had quite a rapid recovery so far, which i'm not surprised about as restrictions get listed -- lifted. the reason issues the guidance was to say the forecast can look beguiling lee straightforward. there is an awful lot of risk and it's obviously distributed one way and we would be therefore ready to lean in and support that. the u.s. is looking to tighten rules for chinese companies listed on american exchanges. a presidential working group is recommending the sec strengthen the regulations around disclosures and auditing.
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the group did not determine how to enforce guidelines but the final penalty for companies that do not comply would be delisting. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. mayra. -- nejra. nejra: thank you so much. the pandemic has hammered the european property market. one of the biggest real estate managers in the world said there's plenty of opportunities left. lasalle investment management on a media strategy, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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i am nejra cehic in london. what a busy week of corporate earnings it has been. bloomberg spoke with executives of european firms from commerce
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bank to b.p., who are trying to position themselves for the uncertainty that is the year to come. take a listen. on the side ofrr caution and remain agile in ramping up or ramping down depending on the local market circumstances. >> i do not think europe will recover soon. i think europe is really based on travelers in milan, paris. >> we are seeing sequential improvement. next look forward the couple of quarters, we are expecting things to get better. inhow 2020 one is developing the guidance, to be honest, it is too early to tell. >> there is no doubt we will have sizable profits and -- >> resilient distribution policy that enables us to invest into the transition while giving shareholders a fixed dividend and the potential for at least
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60% of buybacks if there is excess cash flow. >> assume we will be back to a normal level throughout the second half of the year. obviously, that relies on how covid-19 pandemic lays out in different geographies. well,have prepared very doing what we had to do. there is a new generation which we announced yesterday. people on the management board are very happy. to a: turning out different outlook, real estate. the coronavirus crisis has upended the property market while trends like the death of retail have accelerated. new trends like the flight from according tomerged lasalle investment management. the $65 billion real estate manager just out with their latest strategy update. let's get to dani burger. >> that's right. lasalle out with their latest outlook. joining us to discuss it
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exclusively is the director of research and strategy at the firm. first off, thank you so much for joining us. i want to pick up on a point mayra left off -- nejra left off on. people are leaving to the suburbs. are we starting to witness the death of a real estate model where you have the central business district? simon: there is a very big question mark in the current environment. not only the office workers but also the retail and entertainment the office workers then support but when you think about the coronavirus timeline, you need to divided into two. there is the prevaccination period and post vaccination period. vaccination and various treatments. in that period, it's hard to see how they will return to their former status given social distancing and bigger cities
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relying on public transport. they will lag smaller cities where you can walk, cycle, and drive, but in the post vaccination period, it's a very different story. health concerns dissipate quickly. the focus in a recession is on jobs. capital element, we believe, drives productivity over the longer-term. people, businesses, academia, government, all come together in clusters that will cross. there are plenty of opportunities for cbd in the world. outlooks, you say there's a pre-imposed virus vaccination world. where we get it, the effectiveness of it. how do you deal with that uncertainty when you are looking for investments? simon: what you need is flexibility. it is one of the things we have always said about investments because you cannot predict what the future is going to be so you need an office space or business
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space that is flexible to adapt. the right kind of size, the right kind of control, and you always focus on the fundamentals. what is the accessibility for public transport, walk ability. what are the amenities around you that businesses will always want their workforce to have, and critically, is it affordable to those businesses? if you have all of those characteristics, you should be able to do it no matter what the unexpected will be. dani: i cannot help when you talk about flexible work spaces, i cannot help but thinking about we work. can you see an environment where we have the return of those types of buildings, is wework in attractive investment? -- an attractive investment? while there is social distancing in place, they will find it difficult. we have always been very
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cautious on this trend. but we believe flexible work generally is part of a wider flexible revolution that we have to adapt to. businesses want to be able to change their location, change their office style, to attract the best workers. talent and we for need to be able to adapt. businesses will want to take on , leases need to be flexible. the one thing the coronavirus has shown us about flexibility that perhaps was not appreciated before is the remote working. office workers actually working from home. an effect ono have long-term office demand. dani: more workers at home. are there any interesting opportunities that you see away from the cities? are there any investments to be made in the suburbs or rural
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areas? generally speaking, the residential market, where people are spending more of their time working from home, is another major opportunity across europe. like when you invest in commercial real estate's, investing over the longer term because transaction costs are so high. similarly, people find their homes -- it's a very large cost and they will not be doing it every five to 10 years. there will not be a knee-jerk reaction to moving out assemblies -- out of cities simply because of coronavirus. it accelerated a trend that was already emerging. a preference for quality of life , the affordability of housing in major cities is so low that that was also pushing young families to move to suburbs. again, with great accessibility, but focusing on good-quality schools for their children.
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suburban rental accommodation or houses for sale is very much an option. urbanll don't believe rental accommodations for those young professionals may not even be able to own a home. they would prefer to rent and experience what a major city has to offer. dani: we don't have too much time. we have the bank of decision -- england decision yesterday. yields when it comes to dividends, stocks are starting to be cut. what does that do to real estate attractiveness? simon: real estate is essentially an income asset class and investors should focus on that. the lower the bond market yields are, typically, the more attractive the real estate market is. that said, if yields are low, it is because of concern over the fundamentals of the economy and those are the businesses that pay the rent so it does not work
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in the one-for-one relationship conflicts to pay those rents throughout a difficult period, then -- -- dani: simon, thank you so much. nejra? nejra: thank you so much. great work. coming up, rise of the social. anti-pandemic and antiracism protests have swept the globe. we have seen those stocks outperform. more on that, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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nejra: let's turn to esg and in particular, the s, which has risen to prominence. european companies with the highest dfg rankings, and in particular, social out shown the broader market. to seers now want greater ethnic diversity and
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companies have pledged to do better on racial equality so what steps can they actually take? adeline, welcome to the show. our companies increasing and measuring ethnic diversity in a way that is easy for investors to digest? >> hello. yes, indeed. i mean, we have seen this trend as well. that is what everyone was talking about six months ago. dialoguess triggered about rates and inclusion. they face the same issues. you cannot measure what you want to measure. we need to look at carbon emissions, carbon targets. we need reporting. track% of companies, we globally, report on minorities in the workforce and only 2% are
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minorities at the management level. nejra: very interesting stat spirit head of esg investing. she will appear through our programming. that is it for "bloomberg daybreak: europe." the european open is up next and futures point to losses. this is bloomberg. ♪ businesses are starting to bounce back.
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annmarie: good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." i am annmarie hordern in london alongside matt miller in berlin. it is all about jobs and trade this morning. matt: absolutely. the grandfather of all economic data points coming out later in washington area today, the markets say brace yourselves. stocks snap a four-day streak in asia after the latest u.s.-china escalation. europe points lower in

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