tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg August 7, 2020 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT
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plus the big deficits we will be running, that should continue to see weaker dollar with good health to unlock the value that exists outside the united states. investors have been underexposed. they should be adding to non-us dollar assets. caroline: interesting. time to go today we see the s&p 500 closed in the green, up two points, on the week as well, up 2.45%. the best week we have seen for the s&p 500 in a month. about --q raise some some of its most severe losses, but technology was the laggard on the back of the u.s.-china trade tension, and trade tension has engulfed the likes of wechat pay and tencent. >> i'm glad you brought up the tension on what otherwise felt like a risk off day. bond yields were rising and gold was lower as well and seemed to
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the dollar,ack to so it was not clear what the safe haven was today, and then the vix is lower. lessinly pricing in a lot risk than we were even a few weeks ago. murky in terms if the market is hoping for some stimulus to come in. financials aret your outperformance on the day, probably with that very small uptick. atlor: the senior strategist invesco is still with us. i know you said you favored equities over treasuries, but how does high-yield and credit
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look? i was looking at our high-yield barclays index. i thought 500 basis points over treasuries looked at one point, and down further, we migrate. how are you viewing credit at this point? >> i think we are being incentivized on credit, and i expect we will be -- incentivized to own credit and i expect we will be for a while. these moves that presage a recession, and that is the time when you need to hold true and by corporate bonds and investments that always bemoan the low yields never seem to want to do so. you get the policy response in an economic recovery and spreads suspect that is what we are moving towards. spreads are still elevated compared to where they were for a lot of the last 10 years, so there is still some potential value that exists in those parts of the market, but ultimately, the federal reserve is going to
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be active in the corporate bond market. the federal reserve will not be raising rates for a very long period of time, and we will be in what looks like a slow recovery. all of that should be a fairly good environment for the high-yield bond market. it does not mean there will not be defaults in the high-yield bond market, but the market prices that in in advance and then waits for the policy isponse and recovery, so believe that investors will want to own high-yield bonds in their portfolio, make sure they are rightsizing that portfolio so they are not taking on excessive risk, but using high-yield bonds that augment their traditional strategies and to diversify those portfolios. caroline: quite amazing -- and looking at the statistics for the s&p 500, six-day winning streak, the longest we have seen since 2018. as we see the push to equities on the back of these very low
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yields, negative real yields, do you continue to favor gold at ?ll at the moment quickly record highs at some point put me off. in order to think that gold continues to go higher, you would probably need to consider yhat the economic recoveri gains traction. if it does, and i think it will, you will probably see yields come up some. it does not mean we will not be in a negative rate environment, but the rate of change will improve, so that becomes something of a headwind to gold. gold has had a very large move. personally, i would rather own parts of the market where i can generate true income, where i can generate earnings growth. : great to have your
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caroline: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm caroline hyde. missed a sudden rally. the s&p managed to close in the green with six straight days of gains. laggards are tech on the back of u.s.-china tensions. meanwhile, stimulus seems to have stalled. treasury secretary mnuchin says he will recommend president trump move ahead with action to help evictions and possibly restore some employers -- some unemployment aid as another round of negotiations with democrats ends without progress. new york's governor says schools can welcome back students if the rate of infection in their communities remains low. what is the cost of keeping safe? plus, princeton university goes virtual for the fall semester. cannot seemongress to agree on a new stimulus bill.
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>> if the congress does not act, if there's no deal, and right now it does not look that great, then the president will take his own action. the solution here is to come to a pro-growth, common sense, pragmatic compromise. thus far, that has been elusive, and in that case, the president, who is a great leader and makes good on his promises, will exercise his leadership and executive-level authority. you can count on that. you can take that to the bank. >> one thing you did not say was what you guys would do with executive powers on state aid. i have spoken to new york state. they told me if they do not get aid, austerity begins immediately. you have way more experience than i on wall street, going
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back decades. you know the enteral government is the only one that can act counter cyclically. states do not have that benefit. they do not have that option. you also know if they do not get that aid, austerity starts immediately. what is the federal strategy when state-level austerity kicks and because we cannot find an agreement on state aid? that theard to say cares bill and other bills in the last 3, 4 months is austerity. we put out -- what? $3.5 trillion of fiscal assistance in many forms. the federal reserve has put out over $7 trillion through the money supply and lending facilities. this is not austerity -- >> not from the federal government. i'm not suggesting it will be. i'm saying from the states, they will have to cut. you know they will. >> i will say this -- because of the pandemic contraction, the
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income statements of state local government and the federal government have deteriorated, absolutely. what is the solution? aid.of the solution is some of the solution is economic growth where revenues will start pouring in and the more people go back to work and pay taxes and so do businesses. we have given states through prior deals literally hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars. i don't want to second-guess. i'm not here to negotiate. we are looking at all the asks from our friends across the aisle. i know the president is especially interested in making sufficientare resources to get the kids back to school. if we apply the guidelines of distancing and masking and testing and good hygiene, kids can get back to school. if the schools need more equipment -- if there's
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covid-related expenses, i think there's a chance the president would be happy to pitch in, but the bill that we have been given from the other team goes way, way, way beyond that, and there's a lot of democrat asks that do not make sense, certainly not in the present context. we have to separate that out. it is not so simple as fiscal austerity in the state. hundreds of billions -- trillions of dollars have passed from the real two-state. taylor: national economic council director larry kudlow speaking earlier. we have had some interesting development on the stimulus front. we are hearing from steve mnuchin, the treasury secretary, saying he will suggest trump thatexecutive action given some of the talks have fallen apart. trying to figure out exactly what is in that aid, it looks like it could be a payroll tax cut, eviction protection,
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unemployment benefits, and student loan repayments. are pushed to see executive orders come through because of the lack of talks going on, and we heard from nancy pelosi, speaker of the house, saying they needed more coming from republicans, a higher amount coming in terms of unemployment benefits. -- in terms of what is being suggested by democrats, there is still a long way to go. taylor: we will speak with co-author of the 12 edition of the book "the state of working america." as you look at the lack of compromise we see in stimulus, what, in your opinion, will be the most helpful or beneficial to workers at this moment? >> it's a great question. we heard talk about growth.
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we have not heard talk about aid to workers and their families. you can do both if you keep that $600 -- if you reinstate the 600 dollar benefit for unemployment insurance for those 30 million-plus workers who have lost their jobs in the last few weeks and months, what you will do is support those workers, and that support is going to stimulate the economy, and that will stimulate the economy on the order of 5 million more jobs. that's jobs across the country that will be created because people have that money in their pockets to not only stay afloat and pay their rent, their mortgage, but put food on the table, provide for their families. when they spend that money, that creates jobs because they are buying goods and services and people need to be employed to provide those goods and services. caroline: the jobs number that we did get, in terms of the improvement we saw, is that something that is sustainable, do you think?
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muchthink in terms of how stimulation that $600 will produce -- is that what you're asking? caroline: in terms of the jobs number we had earlier today and the fact that we are seeing greater improvement than anticipated. is stimulus needed to see ?ontinuation of that growth >> i think it was not as high as we thought. it was a decent number -- 1.8 million. some people were predicting much closer to zero, so promising in that way, but certainly disappointing in the numbers we twoseen the previous months, and i think that slowdown is because of the resurgence in coronavirus and re-shuttering of parts of the country and we may see that continuing into august depending on what health experts are telling us and depending how this virus spreads. that's why we need to provide support for workers who just need to stay home because the economy is not ready to fully open at this time.
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taylor: i understand needing to help the unemployed at this moment because through no fault of their own, they do not have jobs they can go back to at this moment, but the other side of the argument is we are running massive fiscal deficits and our debt load is becoming too much of a burden, at least according to fitch, one week ago downloading the outlook of the aaa rating of u.s. debt, purely on the fact that debt to gdp does not look sustainable. how are you thinking about balancing the two? >> what i'm concerned about is the federal government can run some deficits, but it's really the state and local governments that cannot. that thosehe people governments need massive fiscal relief because they cannot do the same borrowing the federal government can, and that can help substantially not only with the growth that you want to see, as we heard already, but it
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helps with jobs and being able to provide the public education jobs needed to have the education system up and running. we need that fiscal relief. if it does not come, there will be budget cuts, and that severe austerity will put a chokehold on the austerity -- that severe austerity will put a chokehold on the economy. caroline: i'm also interested in the work you have done in terms of the increasing on equality -- increasing inequality we see amplified by what is happening with covid. the numbers, even though we have seen improvement, it still highlights far too many people are unemployed, and far too many black people versus white people are unemployed. it is so stark, there's now a 5% difference. , and fivet 9% percentage points higher, the widest gap we have seen since
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five years ago. how can this be tackled, from a fiscal perspective, government perspective, or even from a federal reserve target? >> you are right -- the unemployment rate has been versusfor black workers white workers throughout history. we are seeing the recovery has been reaching more white workers than black workers, even as black workers some much worse outcomes at the depths of the pandemic-driven recession and black workers are much less able to weather the storm because of all the historical discrimination they have faced and the wealth gap. they don't have the same resources that white workers and their families have had, so we need to tackle this head on in all of the areas in terms of wage gaps, income gaps, wealth as black persist, even workers have more levels of education. it is persistent across, and we need to close those gaps. we need to target the black unemployment rate to make sure that is as low as possible.
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taylor: how are you thinking about that going forward? if we don't get $600 a week -- let's say $400 a week or $300 or $200 or whatever the final number will be -- what does your analysis show you about any harm that could be done if it goes from $600 to $400, for example? >> if we cut the benefits more, instead of killing 5 million jobs, you are killing 2.4 million jobs, so you are putting a chokehold on how much that job creation can happen in the next year if we don't put more money into people's pockets. obviously, it is hugely important for those families to have that money right now. unfortunately, we will be seeing if actions. people are not able to pay their rent, their mortgages right now. we never want people on the streets, but we particularly do not want people on the streets during a pandemic. this is devastating, and it is
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banks will be able to raise interest rates on credit and deposits. intelligenceberg chief emerging market strategist in us now. talk about how we got here. a record low for the lira versus the dollar, and it remains there now. >> talk about brief. we have seen a 6% round-trip move. we touched a record low before rallying this morning. round-trip move. that's unbelievable. it's now down 18.5% year to date. we are seeing a little bit of a shift on the part of federal officials in turkey. prior to today, they have been reluctant to hike rates, but by moving local lenders to borrow from the overnight rate, which iscurrently 9.75%, that equivalent to a rate hike. while it is not enough to restore confidence in the liver,
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it is certainly a step in the right direction. taylor: walk me through what we've seen in the lira. when you had massive dollar youngth in march and april, weakness in these currencies, but now that we see dollar weakness, are em movement toeeing the upside? >> know, they are not. we have to look back to august 2008 when he saw the lira go through this crisis once before. you see these liquid off get hitk em currencies worse because tighter value at risk limits from big institutional investors physically take money away from those currencies when they are caught in positions that are running out of favor.
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it looks like the rand is going to get hit, perhaps the brazilian real as well, but really, what are we talking about? facing turkey is a liability mismatch issue amongst .ocal banks $75 billion -- the real risk is placed on turkey's external credit is. that's creditors. a lot of that is held at the banks, and which banks have the largest claims on turkish financials? spanish banks, italian banks, french banks, and they may be most at risk as well, but i think em currencies will be far more concerned with u.s.-china trade tensions and the resurgence in covid far more than they are with turkey at current levels. carolyn: interesting. to turkey in and of itself, they keep driving foreign investors further and further away with some of the more controversial tactics they seem to take.
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>> that's exactly right. it's a major liquidity issue. $60 billion is what the turkish government has spent to support the currency this year. are 50 billion, but they have short-term swats of local lenders that are far greater than that, meaning that reserves are now negative. .hey do not have the ammunition they are probably going to have to turn to bilateral policies. qatar pledge $15 million in a swapents and gave them line to help them emerge from the crisis back then. i don't see anyone coming to the table now, but hopefully they can come to terms with some lenders and find some assistance somewhere because i just don't think they have enough .mmunition to fight this tide caroline: always great to get your expertise when it comes to each of these individual companies. have a great weekend.
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quick check on the latest headlines. pandemic has her vehicles, alectric south korean company expects its battery business to reach a record thanks in part to deals with tesla. is also using virus recovery funds to help boost sales of electric vehicles. meanwhile, switzerland has struck a deal with maternal to supply the country 4.5 million of a covid-19 vaccine, one deals with asuch government and madonna -- switzerland has struck a deal with moderna. president trump band u.s. companies from doing business
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caroline: president trump signing a ban of executive orders to band tiktok and tencent's wechat beginning 10 days from now. the move marks a significant excavation -- escalation in the china'sttempt to curb activities. you were made for this new cycle. talk to us about the legality of this and if it would work. we see it done with huawei. it has been almost able to be
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pushed to other countries as well, but will any other countries toe the party line? >> i think it is a big question if these executive orders are actually going to reach -- going to affect, there's this -- there will be a huge amount of lobbying because it affects u.s. businesses who operate app stores like apple and google, and people are going to push back. we don't even know if it will happen, but earlier this week, ansaw pompeo push international initiative to try to get a bunch of other countries on board with a basically no china internet strategy that they call clean. as you push countries a little harder with things like "let's fan -- chat -- let's wechat" effectively cutting them off from their partners in china, it's less likely the u.s. gets pickup.
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taylor: tiktok earlier this year was being described as a national security risk. wechat seemed to come out of the blue. talk to me about some of the security risks you see and if they too should be tied together. >> they are similar in away. in both cases, users could be concerned if i have data they are handling that is of interest to the chinese government. if you are a dissident, if your device is handling sensitive information for your company that the chinese government might be after, it's possible the chinese government could step on these companies to try to reach over and grab the data. tiktok has a little bit more of a separate structure where the u.s. unit says they keep all their data in the united states and singapore. we chat is more of a global product. access would be more direct. it is really a jump to go from protecting intellectual property, protecting people who have particular reasons to keep
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their discourse kind of secret from the chinese government all the way to a national security risk. people are arguing they would tob entire databases, use ai analyze and target people and just figure out things about the united states, and at this point, that is pretty speculative stuff. i think we have to look behind it and realize that this is a political season. having china as an enemy or rival is really valuable for the trump people right now. >> i have heard that from other investors as well, really saying this is political posturing. could it lead to real political ramifications in terms of bifurcated worlds with technology systems that dominate in asia and others that dominate in the u.s.? it has already happened to a certain extent. it's really only microsoft that had any kind of foothold in china. will it be the case that tencent -- most of its revenues come from the u.s., and it will remain so, and it can feed off
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the asia demand rather than ever becoming dominant globally. >> i think it is a fortune to disaggregate tencent a little bit. this is one of the things that is unclear about how the executive order from yesterday will turn out. it says it is mentioning tencent and all of its subsidiaries, and now it includes these huge gaming properties that touch on these games. i don't know much about them, but fortnite is really popular. tencent is consequently around the world and invest in many things. i think it will be difficult to unwind their global position. wechat on the other hand is china, dealingin with people in china or the chinese diaspora, and is not of that useful elsewhere. we don't know what the administration intends to do on that count. taylor: caroline brought up a has point that u.s. tech not been allowed into china.
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why then should we allow chinese tech into the u.s.? does china need to rethink the strategy and the long game they are playing by forcing us out? they started this, and are they than surprised this is how we respond? what do you make of that? >> i think that gets to a couple of different arguments. the argument being we are not letting chinese companies in because u.s. companies are banned due to censorship, that might be one thing, but the argument that there is a threat to the united states, i think that is a stretch. the united states has long been a proponent of the free, open, global internet. the trump administration seems to have basically taken its foot off the gas on that and really does seem more comfortable with cutting off the united states from the world. taylor: our thank you. thes get an update with first word news from mark crumpton. mark: thank you very much.
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treasury secretary steven mnuchin says he will recommend that president trump move ahead with executive actions to halt evictions and possibly restore some unemployment aid after another round of negotiations with democrats on a virus relief plan ended without an agreement. after leaving a meeting with house speaker nancy pelosi and senate democratic leader chuck schumer, secretary mnuchin and white house chief of staff mark an offergain projected from speaker pelosi to roughly split the difference in the price tags of the democratic and republican coronavirus relief plans, leaving negotiations in limbo. a warning from russia today -- the kremlin says it will perceive any ballistic missile launched in its territory as a nuclear attack that warrants nuclear retaliation. the warning is directed at the united states, which has worked to develop long-range nonnuclear
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weapons. ireland's prime minister has ordered a regional lockdown in a surge ofies amid new covid-19 cases. martin said the restrictions will be in response to what he event. deep and urgent the restrictions began at midnight and last for two weeks. movement will be restricted within the counties with the exception of work and other essential journeys. >> i understand the increasing inpatients which many people are feeling. there is a huge desire to get back to normal life, to celebrate with our loved ones, to meet and properly interact with new people, to really participate in and enjoy our culture, to travel. however, we all need to understand that this virus is still a deep and urgent threat. it is merciless and unrelenting. mark: a brief milestone has been reached in india. health officials say the country
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has surpassed more than 2 million coronavirus cases. more than 41,000 people have died. the spike comes as about 600,000 health volunteers went on strike, complaining they were ill-equipped to respond to the wave of infections. india has the third-highest caseload in the world behind the united states and brazil. global news 24 hours a day on powered byquicktake bloomberg. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> they've done a couple of that amazonthings has absolutely driven down the cost of many items and made it much more easy for people to trade, so i think that is a very good thing for society. i think the last thing amazon could be accused of is price gouging. it is a very competitive industry. it has also relentlessly areas.d in new i think it is a substantial contribution to society. it also shows up superbly well in any narrative of places to work. it's easy to criticize large
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companies, and it's part of what we do as a society. we go through phases of there's big oil, and the financial crisis, big pharma, and now big tech is in the firing lens. we don't like companies getting too large, and quite rightly so because history is dotted with companies that abuse their power, and the -- there should be trade-offs. it's hard to determine how to handle it. do you tell them to slow deliveries down? it is a problem for regulators largely what they are doing is blighting customers on a daily basis. >> do you worry they will impose laws that do not fit, do not work? >> absolutely. to any a threat
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portfolio included in that is clumsy regulation, precisely for the reasons i spoke about. at times, politicians have to do something, and there is almost an irrational attraction to regulating big companies. despite the fact that they might be helping many members of society. the talk of potential breakup -- people have talked sales taxes rather than profit taxes to try to capture that -- it is a concern, but they are very hard to implement because something like that would probably entrench its competitive position because it would make it even harder for competitors. smaller competitors would have to pay a sales tax -- to actually gain any market share. i think it is sort of an inevitable consequence that people want to hold large
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companies under a microsoft -- under a microscope, and i don't think that is a bad thing, per se, but i do think some of the analysis can get quite clouded. you have to ask with these large that is sore doing disruptive or so negative for -- you have to ask what these large companies are doing that is so disruptive or negative for society. one has to go back to the of avoiding falling in love with stocks. that, for us, would be -- there are probably three factors. a real slowdown in topline growth. the other end of that is
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accelerated through the pandemic, but if we saw a company, and we have had several holdings in the past where topline growth has slowed substantially. the second is the old chestnut of competitive environments. if a new competitor comes along and does what you are doing better, that is a great challenge to any company, and stockmarket history is obviously full of companies reinventing themselves and challenging so you have to be awake to that. third, going back to the other comments on culture, are large changes in company management. if some of the ceo's that we think are there for the long-term walk away from this business, that is a massive signal. it's far too easy to say x will
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do a good job, but if they have not been there and are not the founder, not the person who is the heartbeat of that company, int is a massive change investment case. taylor: i want to get a quick check on some of the business flash headlines we are following. newfirst is the world has a cindy billionaire -- a new -- that's anire sat word i learned today. mark zuckerberg joins tech titans jeff bezos and bill gates is the only people in the world billionairenti status. princeton and announcing it will
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switch when all remote undergraduate program for the fall semester, reversing its plan to bring some students back on campus. the ivy league school saying classes will not be held in person because of the pandemic. princeton outlined plans to bring back undergraduates in shifts, saying most academic instruction would stay online. news, onng on that schools, new york governor andrew cuomo say schools can based on september current infection rates. this comes as schools are hoarding masks, hand sanitizer, facials, and more, racking up children thisct fall. for more, i bring in michelle caskey. it is always great to get your
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perspective. it's interesting this comes at a time when schools feel like they can least afford to be spending this money. what kind of protections are you seeing when you look at these schools? yes, schools are definitely ramping up on their supplies. ofy are buying masks, a lot cleaning supplies, the gloves, do laptops so kids can remote learning in schools where they are not opening up the schools yet, so they are having to procure a lot of items, more so than they usually would. caroline: more so and at more cost than they usually would. i'm sure you are acutely aware of the pressure this is putting on schools and potentially states as to if they will need help for all of this. how much is this adding up? michelle: there are some estimates.
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the american federation of teachers has estimated it will cost schools around the u.s. $116 billion just to reopen safely. there's another estimate that it is roughly about one point 8 million dollars per average school district, again, to get everything ready, to get all the supplies needed to keep schools safe. taylor: i'm curious -- what are schools doing to offset costs? are they borrowing more in public markets? are they hoping for more state aid? hoping for a stimulus package that will give them more money? how are they looking at what will inevitably be rising costs? >> that have not started the borrowing yet. again, these would be for items that they really cannot borrow majorcause these are not infrastructure projects, but they got some money in the cares act, and that helps them be able
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to buy supplies starting a few months ago, and they are looking to congress for the latest relief bill, hoping that they will get, again, additional funds to help cover these costs. ultimately, they will be looking toward their local and state governments as well, but again, as we know because of what is going on with the broader economy, it is going to be harder for states and local governments to direct money to schools. caroline: the breaking news today was a long-awaited announcement coming from the state of new york, saying if the illness remains at bay, if we manage to control the spread of coronavirus, schools can resume in person teaching. are there any other states that are currently opening up in a safe fashion? how do you think this will unfold? do you think inherently most people will see a balance of working from home and studying from home and going into school?
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>> it sounds like the vast majority of parents will be looking at schools where it is starting off with remote learning and with the help of an anticipation of moving into either blended -- a blended program of in school and distance learning and even more so moving into in school learning. new york city is definitely, by saying they will open all their doors, is definitely a change from what is happening, different from what is happening across the country. the major school districts across the country are starting off with remote learning only. caroline: we will see how mayor de blasio reacts to this. great to have you on. miss our, do not roundtable conversation with former treasury secretary larry
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taylor: we've got more earnings on tap next week and even some this weekend. berkshire hathaway set to report its latest numbers on saturday. column.he name of your you are right -- did they really go against the grain within corporate america of reporting on saturday and then not even holding a conference call? that is what investors want, to hear from warren. why not have a conference call? >> that's the question. he has always been kind of opposed to some of the conventions that corporate america and companies do, but at a time like this when you do not get to hear from buffett that
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often, investors really look to him for guidance on how to handle situations like this, and i think his last speech to wall street was the annual shareholder meeting in omaha where buffett was sitting in front of a camera talking to investors virtually, and he was very somber and kind of dispirited, which is very unusual and also did not send a good signal to the stock market. i think people want to know if anything has changed since may. it's unfortunate we do not get an earnings call to hear from him and see how the thinking has changed. is he thinking about spending that cash finally? what is the outlook for the american economy? is he still america's big cheerleader? caroline: his conglomerate is only a cross-section of america. will it be a painful reading?
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thing with berkshire hathaway, because it has all these different businesses, a lot of the industries they operate in, their competitors have already reported this season. we generally do not get a lot of surprises in berkshire' operational results. we know businesses are having a hard time and that does not tend to worry berkshire shareholders a lot. they tend to see a long-term view like buffett does. i think what worried them -- notice berkshire shares are down when the rest of the market has gone back into positive territory -- a lot of that is because people are wondering if buffett has lost his touch. he missed out on a lot of tech stocks over the years and was a late comer to that industry. also now he is not spending his cash, which is part of the big investment case for owning berkshire stock is what buffett will do with the cash the company generates, and lately, it has not been a whole lot. he likely has been buying back a lot of stocks, so we will find
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emily: welcome to "bloomberg technology." ." i'm emily chang in san francisco. china tensions on the rise. the white house ramping up its confrontation with beijing. president trump signing an executive order prohibiting u.s. presidents from doing business with text talk -- tiktok, we chat, and tencent. the move could
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