>> i've never heard fed officials basically beg for fiscal policy the way they are now. >> i think we started the new economic recovery. >> the question is, are we headed towards a cliff? >> i think we are certainly in the midst of a slow moving policy mistake. >> undoubtedly this is a resilient economy, but resilience works with ways. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. and the capitol hill president over the weekend flying solo. tom: absolutely odd. it was one of the oddest weekends i can remember in all the years of doing this. we can go on and on about it, but i love what martin schenker said earlier this morning. they've got to do something fast.

the idea that they can delay decisions into september, i just don't get that when i observe what i observe on the streets of new york. jonathan: let's observe the price action. we know why there's no urgency. compare and contrast to where we were back in march. d.c. is on the road to nowhere. they have been for the last several weeks. tom: there are two americas out there. good morning, john edwards of louisiana. what we see is the complacency of the politicians that they have time. i don't understand where that complacency came from. jonathan: let's get to the economic data. cpi coming out later this week. retail sales, that is how we conclude the week on friday morning. in the price action this monday morning, equities, the calm in the equity market. we are up five points on the s&p 500. we advance a little more than

your .1% -- more than 0.1%. treasuries under the hypnosis of fed chair jay powell. tenure goes nowhere. wedbush out this morning, upgrading his price target on apple to $515. we are at 1.9 trillion dollars for the market cap now. toember when dan ives said trillion dollars for apple and it felt like a call? it is no longer a call. here, the very subtle general lift of the market away from the glory stocks out there right now. what i love about what michael dart us said in the last at -- what michael dardis said in the -- of kkmof in partners. jonathan: let's bring in daniel

alpert right now of westwood capital. put these together for us. is thisthe bottom line rapid crash in u.s. employment which is not getting recovered from any time soon threatens to descend further into systemic crisis. we will see households unable to pay the bills and small and medium-sized employers who give jobs to about 50% of american workers failing as aggregate demand collapses and extended pandemic and end of a central support two households. it is really going to be a problem. you were talking about the equity markets. this is beginning to risible that of september 1929 to april 1930, when the equity market recovered 50% from post crash lows. government policy errors were building up, and what did you get? you got the great depression. so this is very serious stuff. tom: the granularity of your wonderful work with cornell is

stunning. what was the granularity of the report that got your attention for so much of america that is struggling? we saw those enormous increases in jobs and unemployment, and you started looking at the sectors in which you saw the increases. they were leisure and hospitality, other things, retail, that are fully closed. so you say, why are all of these people adding back jobs when they are still closed? we surveyed about 6400 people and found out that we were now starting to see repeat layoffs of people who had been re-pay rolled, and we found out that it was the ppp going on that was encouraging employers to payroll their people, but what we discovered was that of the rolled, 40% ofay

them weren't actually working. tom: what does that mean for gdp? what jon and i want to do on a monday is get out to september, get out to october. eryl disclosure, i see v little of that in the literature. daniel: i think what that means is two things. of is that you have a lot businesses that have been able to extend their lives only through government support. those businesses are now going to ppp put up against the pandemic surging countries, and may not be there in september and october and next year to reemploy people. the second part is that you now are really facing a systemic crisis. if households cannot pay their

mortgages, pay their rents, they are going to use whatever money they have to eat. you are going to see this potentially trickle into a financial crisis. tom: this is so important. i see a dearth. i see almost no energy put into what october looks like right now. jonathan: i can't get past next week, never mind october. you and i have been talking about it. the survey week, who what i survey week could be the difference between positive and negative one million. is that where we are? between thedelay report is too much time in this crisis. too much is happening during that time. it could go on for months. right now, if the survey data we

have is correct, what you're going to see in august is that negative number. you're going to see the reversal of these three months of job growth, and you are going to see increased layoffs and a boost in the unappointed rate. jonathan: this is why everyone thinks so much more needs to be done in washington, d.c. let's talk about the something we got over the weekend. the president has basically instructed to redirect funds for disaster relief towards unemployment benefits. the enhanced benefit now from the federal side, $300. they asked the states to chip in another $100. no one knows if you can process this quickly or how long it would last. bloomberg economics saying it could be gone in a couple of months. payrollhe deferral of taxes, we know what that follows through to. tom:tom: great research over the weekend. focus on the scum of the republican senator from nebraska called it -- focus on this, the

republican senator from nebraska called it unconstitutional. jonathan: what i didn't hear over the weekend was democrats ready to make a legal challenge, because who honors wants to be seen challenging what the president announced over the weekend? daniel: these are all political backflips, not economic policymaking. to the extent that money can flow out in the states can actually get it out to through trumps action, that's great. ,t delays some of the problem and hopefully there is some political sanity that can emerge. but at the end of the day, this is so much bigger than just what the president signed over the weekend. the biggest part of it to me is making sure that those small and medium-sized employers are there to reemploy people when this virus finally comes under control.

yes, you can probably put a band-aid on the system in crisis if you can get some money to households, enable them to pay their rents and mortgages, but at the end of the day, there's going to be no jobs. that's the bigger of the two problems. nothing the president did this we can have anything to do with that. tom: i want to go to your wonderful book, "the age of oversupply." what we have is an oversupply of money. there's trillions of dollars laying around, looking for something to do. what happens to our oversupply of capital? going onhis has been for a couple of decades. the problem is, when you have a situation where there's no really good opportunity for risk-free returns, meaning in sovereign bonds, you are going to see that money start to look for some sort of field, and making excuses every which way. people will go into the stock

market because the stock market has risen for the last key weeks. people will go into gold because gold has risen the last few weeks. you will see things that are basically rooted in market momentum. there's no rationale for any of this. tom: will a president biden make a difference in dan alpert's american view? daniel: well, yeah. i think an enormous difference because clearly this administration is dysfunctional, but think about what happens after november 3. even if there was not some hellacious battle over who won the election, you have a long interim during which someone needs to make policy. the question is at that point, you have a lame-duck congress. maybe you will see turnover in the senate, maybe you won't. but at the end of the day, who is going to be there to make policy? right now we are floating in a notion without an hour -- in an

ocean without an oar. alpert of westwood capital there. we will catch up with kevin onilli in a minute, and also vp watch for joe biden, expecting that announcement sometime this week. tom: it is interesting, the back-and-forth on the pic over the weekend. i can't say enough about how odd this weekend was. upset andurrents, the probe and con over the executive orders. bit -- wewe come in a are unchanged. we've got chaos in capitol hill. i guess some people think it will force the hand of democrats. we've also got tension between china and the united states. yes the equity market won't break down. marlow was brilliant

in the last hour. he may clear -- he made clear that this arrest to stunned the western elite in hong kong. jonathan: more coming up this hour. lisa abramowicz taking a well-earned day off. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. in hong kong, the highest profile case yet to get democracy activists under the new national security law. police arrested media tycoon jim li. meanwhile, china retaliating for the u.s. decision to sanction 11 chinese officials over the crackdown in hong kong. beijing says it will sanction 11 americans, but none are members of the trump administration. another move by the u.s. is likely to stoke tensions with china, the most senior visit by

a u.s. official to taiwan and more than four decades. health and human services secretary alex azar praised the taiwanese president's response to the pandemic. democracyd taiwan's and inspiration to the region in the world. bill gates says it is mind blowing that the u.s. hasn't improved coronavirus testing. the microsoft code founder said that the process is slow and lacks fair access. you can't get the government to improve the testing because it just wants to say how great it is. donatedd his wife have $350 million towards coronavirus research. berkshire hathaway spent a record $5.1 billion buying back its own stock in the second quarter, and the conglomerate may have kept that higher pace going in july. they posted a 10% drop in operating profit, smaller than some analysts forecast.

global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. trump: we've gotten much of what we wanted, and they didn't get what they wanted, and they would have, and i guess they still could, and all

fairness. i hear that nancy pelosi wants to call and see if she can do something. but they are much more inclined to make a deal now than they would've been two days ago. jonathan: that's one of you. from new york -- that's one view. from new york city this morning, good morning. here's the price action this monday morning, two hours and 12 minutes away from the opening bell. two weeks of gains on the s&p. we are up two points on the s&p 500. yields down a single basis point on 10 year to 0.55%. pulling back down to $1.1751, down 0.3%. the focus still on capitol hill. grating, tojust see this versus the chaos down on capitol hill. tom: the vix, 22.9 two, speaks volumes.

under 23 is really remarkable. kevin cirilli is our chief washington correspondent. this could be a two hour conversation. we will do it in eight minutes. has either party shown any desire to compromise? kevin: no. signing thet exec at of orders over the weekend, and it is fascinating to see whether or not this is going to end up in the courts, and secondly, whether or not this does exactly what president trump hopes, which is to put more pressure on speaker pelosi to negotiate. mind you come of the unemployment benefits at $400 $400,than the $600, -- at lower than the $600, but that could expire before election day. tom: is there any indication that the two republican parties, the senate and the president, desire compromise?

i don't see any indication they want to budge from their positions. kevin: but i also don't see an indication that speaker pelosi forudging from her position the democrats as well. it does allow them more time in terms of negotiating on the state and local government funding perspective come about on something like the payroll tax, for example, this could really end up in the courts, especially given the test of this presidential authority. but it is something the president has dug in on. as i reported several weeks ago, this is a fight on the payroll tax that the president wants to have. it is a debate he wants to have in the month of september. jonathan: who on earth wants to be seen challenging what the president did over the weekend in the courts? exactly.

in terms of where the democrats are, the president is daring them to file a lawsuit instead of negotiating with them. but i think that right they are, what you identified is that at a time in which speaker pelosi and secretary mnuchin ought to be negotiating some type of broader deal to provide certainty not just to markets, but too small and medium-sized businesses all across this country, with the executive orders did was to allow for some of that certainty to make its way through. jonathan: payroll tax deferral. there are so many dimensions to this one move. .1, republicans didn't want it. two, it hinges on whether they will cut the tax. and point three, didn't they say that if the employer passes this on to you, we will forgive it if you vote for us? kevin: yes to all of that. and i would add on that how it will be enforced, and the sense

of will there be retroactive -- will, where the be there be some type of starting this month, the logistics of this are a religious school quagmire -- ra logistical -- this are a logistical five meyer -- logistical quagmire. they passed a piece of tax legislation that democrats have criticized, but republicans feel is an asset. you spoke to larry on friday, to larry kudlow on friday, and he said he was not willing to concede the issue with democrats. he said he wanted to provide incentives to small business owners in the long run instead of just throwing money. that is the debate that is going to happen between president trump and present of nominee biden. jonathan: i just don't

understand how you can have a supply-side debate when this recovery is clearly constrained. i said to mr. kudlow, if we can't go to a restaurant in new york city, you can't say this economy is normal. it's not. tom: buffalo bills. jack kemp played for the buffalo bills. he was my congressman for a cup of coffee. buffalo bills is american football. they haven't won in 40 years. kevin, what is so important here with mr. kudlow and his old comment on the check kemp republican tone, they would focus on august. i don't see anybody in this debate focusing on the now of august. that is what really struck me about that comment. kevin: i was speaking with sources on both sides of the aisle, but in terms of the trump sources i was speaking to, there is this frustration because jack

kemp was also taken directly to parts of the country that traditionally aren't republican. whichally at a time in the summer has been fraught, with rate relations -- with race relations, for example, there's concern about an ideology that would want to go to economic opportunity. not to have an ideological talk right now, but i think if you are looking in terms of where the broader republican coalition with senator tim scott, for example, i think you could start to see that if the president listens to those jack kemp republicans. in contrast, for biden, it is going to be fascinating to watch on my radar the presidential pic rolled out, but also how he balances disinterest versus progressive wing. tom: do you agree that the buffalo bills are sort of like

brighton or crystal palace? jonathan: kevin, get out now. kevin: you know, go eagles. jonathan: oh yeah. i forget about that. tom: they do better. jonathan: thank you. cirilli, chief washington correspondent. let's get to what kevin was talking about regarding the president. i think we got to talk about the democrats as well. they come out of the weekend in a really tricky position. they can't be seen to challenge the president too much on what he did over the weekend, and somehow they need to re-energize talks on capitol hill. secretary mnuchin said you've got to be ready to compromise. tom: this goes to the economic statistics. people want a fix now. it doesn't matter what their persuasion is. futures up this morning on the s&p 500. moody'sp, mark zandi,

chief economist. good morning to you all. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ hike!

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jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. lisa abramowicz back with us tomorrow. after the biggest week of games going back to early july, equity futures up about two points. bond market up a single basis market, 10 the bond year up a single basis point. it is a snooze on wall street. it is anything but on capitol hill. i would say washington wishes it was a snooze. tom: of course, it fold back into the jobs report we saw on friday, the mixed report, and not trepidation, but the fear, the mystery of what we are going to see the first week in september. joining us now is mark zandi of

moody's analytic. we are thrilled that dr. zandi could join us this morning. you have a chart that speaks pursuit -- to the participation across age and race in america. what does it say? mark: participation collapsed in the pandemic, down about 2% from where we were pre-pandemic, and it is across-the-board, across all ages, ethnic groups, educational attainment. it just shows you distress in the labor market. those folks that stepped out of the workforce step back in and continued to look for work, the unemployment rate measure would be closer to 14%, not the 10%. tom: this is really important because jon and i get a ton of emails which say mark zandi is

right, the 10% number is a fiction. is the 10% number a fiction? mark: it doesn't do justice to the stress in the labor market. they haven't changed any of it ismethodology, so accurate in that sense, but it is not giving us a clear sense of the stress in the labor market. people have stepped out of the workforce. they are not looking, and they want a job. they don't think it is viable to find one. if you consider those folks, the level of stress is a lot higher. , particularly in the financial crisis, the unemployment rate was 10% for one month, so the stress is very high. jonathan: michael mckee says there's a big difference between jobs created and jobs were sword

chess and jobs restored -- and jobs restored. can you walk us through the jobs that won't becoming back come be coming back come of the jobs that have already been lost permanently in this market? mark: that is a good point. some of them have been restored, but many are unlikely to come back or unlikely to come back anytime in the perceivable future. those models are going to change. one exam but would be business travel. i have economists who work for me across the globe. given the pandemic and all of the technological changes, we are not going back to the kind of trouble we had before. i suspect many businesses around

the world are in the same position. that is a business model that will have to change. that means there's going to be a lot fewer jobs. we lost 22 million jobs in march and april. we've gotten roughly 9 million of those back, so we are down 13. we will probably get another million back by the end of the year. it is not going to be easy. it is going to take time. probably won't get there until the middle part of this decade. jonathan: you mentioned travel. how much of that is faxing dependent-- is faxing -- is vaccine dependent? many are not going to travel until there is a vaccine they feel comfortable with, and they feel at they are not going to get sick comfortable outside their home.

the business travel, i just don't see that coming back in the same way, or at least not anytime soon. tom: i want to go to the x-axis of the stimulus. you have done some political they have used your good research for moody's analytics. do you sense an urgency in this august in washington, or are they just slipping their way into a september that is too late? they better have a sense of urgency. what the president has ordered his unworkable. nothing is going to change. even if he got exactly what he wanted today, it is not enough. so they need a sense of urgency. a substitute pass

package, we are going back into recession. tom: i think would've my great observations is never, ever have i seen conservative economists in such sharp agreement with liberal economists. they all say the same thing, let's go. jonathan: they know the recovery is constrained, so you need some's kind of demand-side response. the recovery is constrained by the virus. i question would be for you, as an economist, how do you divide any forecast whatsoever without a deeper understanding of what underpins that forecast, which is fiscal stimulus? mark: it is an assumption, right? i'm assuming the economy makes it waste -- makes its way through without another recession, but that is dependent on a few things. dependent does not get reasonably worse than it is today. and of course what is going on in washington with fiscal

policy, and my baseline, i'm assuming a 1.5 trillion dollar fiscal rescue package. what the president has proposed is about 400 billion dollars. just to give you context, it is just simply not enough. not going to be able to execute on that. unworkable anytime in the foreseeable future. tom: what is your run on gdp and 12 months forward? mark: by then, i hope we have a vaccine. but between now and then, late this year, early next, i don't think we are going anywhere fast, so we will be treading water. it is the headwind created by the virus in the ongoing effect it is having on consumers and businesses, and the tailwind of any fiscal rescue.

the headwind is going to blow us right back into recession. jonathan: this is not a day get your profession. i just wonder how much we should look at these forecasts and pay attention to them because things are so difficult a week out, two months out, a quarter out. mark: great point. that is why you can't rely on one forecast. you have to run different scenarios, and if you are a prudent planner or businessperson, you guard against the downside. take the expected down the middle of outcomes because the distribution is very wide, and there's a bubble of uncertainty. if you are a business person and you can't make a forecast coming you can't put numbers in the spreadsheet and calculate return on investment, you are not going to make an investment. that's one of the key reasons

why i think it is pretty hard for us to get going until we have a vaccine that people feel good about. jonathan: mark zandi, great to catch up with you, sir. tom, once again another economist struggling to get out two months, three months, and for good reason. it is so difficult to understand where fiscal stimulus is going. of have to have some por sort improves your view. am: no one is predicting vaccine in q3, even q4. what we see in the next 90 days is really the harder work here. jonathan: dan alpert mention something really important as well. even if they act this month, there's a chance they will have to act again in january. jonathan: very well said -- tom: very well said. jonathan: i just think about

that post election, how difficult that will be. tom: it is assumed by many policymakers that there will be a second tranche of all of this that we can't decide on in the first tranche. jonathan: the two-year yield going absolutely nowhere, if anything grinding a little bit lower. i would go further. almost everybody now is focused on real yields. i've never heard sony people talking about real yields in the bond market. if that is what is underpinning risk markets, we need to understand what is going to disrupt that. what will send them higher? artist question -- our discussion yesterday and this morning, the reason they are focused on real yield is this new increased inflation expectations. what is the shock surprise that those inflation

expectations don't happen and are extended well into 2021? jonathan: that's what i don't understand from the millions of conversations we are having right now. economists just expect the disinflationary forces to persist through year-end into 2021, yet we keep having this reflection conversation because the fed's reaction function has shifted. just because they will spun to it -- they will respond to it differently doesn't mean it will work in a different way. tom: there's heated opinion on this, from interview to interview we do, but the idea of the inflation expectations are really key. dr. zandi said it was a really working 14% unemployment number. that is a different america than a 10% unemployed america jonathan: it is a tough main street -- unemployed america. jonathan: it is a tough main street.

it is a quiet wall street. you know that as a selling indicator for pretty much everyone on the street come of the moment you rotate out of cash into equities. tom: i could own fractional shares. what do you think? coming up, dr. jonathan quick. ritika: but the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the struggling economy will get only limited help from president trump, but that persuades lawmakers to get back to the negotiating table. the president redirecting really funds so the government can provide $300 a week to the unemployed, plus $100 of state aid. that is down from the weekly $600 that expired in july. that money could run out in one to do months. president shows the

-- shows the former vice president joe biden leading in two battleground polls, ohio and pennsylvania. voters said things in america are going badly and the president's handling of coronavirus was a major issue. the u.s. has not passed 5 million infections. it is added one million cases in a little more than two weeks. death rates in texas had a new record, while cases and deaths both slowed in florida. the father and son accused of helping former nissan chairman carlos ghosn escape from tokyo are still in jail. they were denied bail for a third time while fighting an extradition request from japan. if federal judge ruled that they cannot be released while another judge determines whether they are eligible for extradition. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700

journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we still had a huge hole of unemployed people, so any loss

of momentum at this stage of the recovery is not good news. jonathan: julia coronado there, macropolicy perspectives founder and president. . we have lost momentum a jobs market. from new york city this morning, good morning. lisa abramowicz is back with us tomorrow. equity futures just a little bit firmer, up 0.1% on the s&p. 0.56 percent on the u.s. ten-year. euro weaker for a second session , euro-dollar coming down to $1.1753, down by 0.3%. tom: quite the market. i would note turkish lira was was ending leave weaker this morning. it has recovered a little bit here in the last few hours, but turkey on my radar is i guess how i would put it. we had a great joy in speaking with jonathan quick of the rockefeller foundation, managing affiliated with

duke university. of course, his wonderful book, "the end of academics." we need an update, and the update to me is the resounding success of new york state, not only on a log chart as concave, but there seems to be a real d acceleration -- a real deceleration of the news. how did they do it? dr. quick: they did it by applying the basic techniques we have available to us. we have seen in country after country and now state after state in a growing number that if you get the majority of a population following those personal protective habits, distancing, face masks, theseshing, avoiding super spreader large indoor

gatherings, and you also make some evidence stations -- some adaptations in your workplace and communities, you can drive this virus back. that is what it is been. it has been a collective action. it has been what you might call herd behavior. we don't have herd immunity yet from a vaccine. it will be a while. behavior ifve herd all of this people take those lessons and apply them in our daily lives. tom: the distinction this morning is i guess there's lowering case levels, that's wonderful news, and a stable to rising death level. do you just presume the death level will decrease because we are now seeing lesser cases? dr. quick: that's part of it. people aref fewer infected, you're going to have fewer deaths. but the other bit of good news

atwe are getting better treating coronavirus. we are finding that we can use respirators less and rely more on oxygen. we are finding several medicines , and age-old steroid for people on ventilators that will cut the death rate by 1/3. we are using some other new , for like remdesivir people who are at -- you know, so we've got a combination. the other factor is that the newer cases seem to be more than , so yenger age groups ah. tom: lisa emails in from new york, where she is just waking

up, and wonders should the kids go back to school. where are you on schools right now? dr. quick: this is a challenging issue. everyone wants to get the kids back to school. the parents come of the teachers come of the schools come of the students do. there arey is that sudden parts of the country -- there are certain parts of the country where the community spread is so low that we can probably be pretty close to normal with schools. the other side of it if they are places where community spread is so great, it is probably not the time to go back to in school. what we are seeing is communities looking at the evidence, teachers with the national teachers association, the national academy of pediatrics, many have provided guidance, and community by community, they are looking to see what is going to work for us

, for teachers, students, bus drivers, janitors, for everybody involved. this is going to be a covid year. it is not going to be a normal year. we can't just wish away the virus. but what we can do is develop ways of getting back to school that work for our communities. jonathan: a lot of this leads back to testing. one complaint we've heard repeatedly is the test take time to get result. how do you get those times down a whole lot more quickly? dr. quick: when we set out the rockefeller foundation and set testing plan, the first test.as the diagnostic we got 3 million to 5 million tests a week, but the delays are

such that the tests are useless. by the time you get the results, you've spread. day, we developed a strategy based on antigen testing. fast turnaround, rapid test. point-of-care screening tests. these don't require sending tests to the lab in back again. they can be done and work aces, communities and schools. these are absolutely vital for workplaces, for nursing homes, or for schools. last week, working initially with six governors and now eight governors, they have come together and made a joint commitment for a major purchase of screening tests to use in their states. those are within minutes or hours turnaround.

the big advantage of that is if you do get tested positive -- of these are about 80% plus those who need to be pulled out of circulation, and then the context traced. that is really the next phase. it is a whole new testing technology, but that is what we need to get us to the level of testing we need to stay open. jonathan: doctor, thank you. tom keene, it's got to happen quickly. what use is a test if it takes you that long to get a result? tom: we will continue to talk to these leaders on this. dr. quick is clearly a leader on history and the dynamic. jonathan: we talked about the smooth in the equity market. tom talking about the weakness

in the turkish lira spreading to the south african rand. from new york city this morning, good monday morning. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i have never heard officials begged for fiscal policy the way they are now. >> i think we are starting a new economic recovery. >> are we headed towards a cliff? >> we are in the midst of a policy mistake. >> undoubtedly, this is a resilient economy but resilience works both ways. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. lisa is off today. an extraordinary monday in the oddest of