tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg August 12, 2020 5:00am-6:01am EDT
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francine: kamala harris wins the veepstakes. joe biden picks the california senator to be his running mate. harris becomes the first black woman and first asian-american on a major party presidential ticket. a record slump, the u.k. economy shrinks over 20% in the second quarter, worse than its european peers. the chancellor, rishi sunak, warns of many more job losses to come. and vaccine deal, moderna will manufacture and distribute 100 million doses of its experimental coronavirus vaccine in the u.s. shares jump in extended trade. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. lisa abramowicz stepping in for tom keene in new york this money. great to have you on the program. there is so much to talk about when we look at gold finding that support around 1100. lisa: we are also going to take a look at the political landscape around the united states, with the democratic candidate firming up what it is going to look like.
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a big question about political risk heading into november. francine: we will have plenty more on u.s. politics. we start with leslie vinjamuri shortly. let's start with first word news with ritika gupta. ritika: joe biden is counting on thela harris's ties to african-american community and herself branding as a prosecutor. -- as a progressive prosecutor. she is the first black woman in the first asian-american on a major party presidential ticket. before being elected to the senate, she was california's attorney general. upcoming trade talks with the u.s., bloomberg has learned to chant that chinese will bring up president trump's second ban on the two apps, wechat and tiktok. in hong kong, media tycoon jimmy lai has been released from jail
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after being arrested monday, the most prominent figure detained yet under china's sweeping new national security law. it is seen as a sign of how hong kong's independent justice system is being undermined. the apple daily is critical of china's communist party. airbnb is going public. bloomberg has learned the home to starttartup plans up paperwork in the next few weeks. the business has been rebounding after the hammering it took during the coronavirus lockdown. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i'm ritika gupta. this is uber. lisa? francine? -- this is bloomberg. lisa? francine? francine: a lot of the focus is on the but turn a vaccine and some of the breakthroughs we are seeing there. with bond yields,
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gold rebounding after finding simulated support below $1900 an ounce. here in europe, it is clear the banks are offsetting drops in tech and real estate shares on the european stoxx 600. the pound holding to the drop yesterday versus the euro. we had some ugly data showing the u.k. economy contracted last quarter by more than any other economy in europe. data,picking up on that it is interesting to try to understand why there is a risk-on tone today, nasdaq futures leading up, exceeding the performance right now in the s&p, a contrast of the past few days. we saw the nasdaq underperforming. meanwhile, we are also seeing the 10-year yield dip up a little bit, your adding a little of that selloff extended. and the dollar a little bit stronger. actually, the euro a little bit stronger versus the dollar. crude oil going up a little bit.
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it is hard to understand why there is a risk-on tone when you have weaker than expected data and a virus showing it is not going away anytime soon. francine: joe biden has picked senator kamala harris to be his running mate, the first black woman and first asian-american on a major party presidential ticket. ,nce a rival for the top job the california senator had long been considered for the number two slot. for more on this, we are denied joined byghted to be leslie vinjamuri. thank you for joining us. what kamalak at harris brings to the ticket, how will the dynamics change? leslie: people watching this have been saying this is the obvious choice. it is a safe choice for joe biden. this is a highly accomplished, experienced, moderate american female who speaks very clearly to the very strong concern
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across the country for racial equality, so she has that identity, and she speaks to the african-american community, the asian-american community. something that people are not talking about, but americans feel this is a multiracial female, the first to be on the american presidential ticket. the fact that she is a moderate, that she is not talking about radical changes to the economy, that she is really very much shoring up vice president shen's position, like him, is moderate. it is a very interesting choice. i think there is a hope that she will consolidate the position that he holds of strength among the african-american community, amongst female voters. and that she will make it very clear that there is a very stark difference between these two choices that americans will face when we go to the polls, whether
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it is usual on the economy, issues of immigration. but really what we are seeing is a highly competent ticket at a time when america is in grave economic crisis, facing a tremendously difficult health crisis. francine: if you look at the polls, is president trump doing really badly, or is joe biden doing really well? how is the strategy changing? those two things go together because it is an election, it is about alternatives. the president is clearly doing badly. as we came up to january, we all know the economy was in a good position. the present -- the president certainly had a case to be made for winning, despite that he did not move beyond his base and historical terms. he has not been a strong president. joe biden has kept a low
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profile, biding his time, making clear interventions that targeted moments, but he has kept a low profile. this is a coming-out moment. he has unveiled the one surprise that everybody has been waiting to hear about, and now it all begins. i think we can expect to see a lot more visibility. we will see kamala harris very highly visible. she took part in the protests and had a very active role and has been pushing for it on questions of police reform. so i think now we are heading into a very different period, but one in which the country continues to be, again, in grave crisis. i think we will see a lot of discussion about that. totalthis was not a surprise. kamala harris was the leading candidate to be picked for the vice presidential ticket. i wonder if this is more catering to the progressive branch of the democrats or if it appeals to the centrists in the
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party or swing voters. leslie: it is an interesting choice. she is defined as a moderate, a centrist on economic policies. but if you look at the identity question, on the question of identity, she clearly is very different from choosing a centrist male or modern male running candidate, or even a moderate white female candidate. kamala harris delivers that call ,o take the question of culture questions of immigration very seriously. she does it in a way that is straight up the middle of the democratic party. at the same time, joe biden has made it clear that he is speak -- seeking to build a broad church, and it is critical that the progressive wings of the democratic party, especially young people, feel inspired to vote at a time where voting is not going to be easy. we know the story -- getting people to the polls, hitting the
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male-in ballots, these are going to be -- getting the mail-in ballots, these are going to be difficult to do. people do not feel inspired to vote. when the barriers are that high, it is a difficult calculation. biden vice president plays his cards very carefully. even in the last few days, people started to wonder whether it might still be susan rice or any other number of candidates. it was quite a moment last night. lisa: looking ahead to november, you talked about whether people will be inspired to vote. will they be able to vote, given some of the absentee ballots that we are expecting? where are we on that? how secure will the mailing effort be? leslie: states are working very hard, state-by-state there is a lot of variation. there is a real question about financing, there is a question about financing the post office, making this possible.
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to be ait is going tricky, very complicated election. a lot of people who were following this very carefully are skeptical that we will have a result immediately. it could take up to 3, 4 weeks. hopefully it will be much sooner. this is a very precarious time, and there are a lot of unknowns. what we don't know is what the direction of travel will be on the virus. will it get worse? if it gets worse, if there is a renewed spread -- i hesitate to say a second wave because we are not out of the first wave in many parts of the country. that could also add a whole different level of complexity. i think it is going to be a very difficult election. yes, people need to want to vote, and clearly the choices are very stark between the two tickets that they are going to be faced with. i think generally when people think the stakes are high and the choices are significant, they tend to turn out, but we will have to wait and see.
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francine: if viewer wrote in and said, what can we expect from a debate versus the vice president? i think there is one scheduled october 7 in salt lake city. are they going to be more prominent than in the past? will the focus be more on the candidates and the president, or will it also moves to the vice president? i think -- leslie: i think the vice presidential debates will be extremely important. kamala harris is a very articulate -- remember, she had that tough exchange with vice president biden. she has no hesitancy in taking strong positions, and already we are seeing from president trump's twitter feed that the line of attack is going to be this is the radical left taking over the country. we are going to see a lot of conversation about economic policy, about tax policy, about questions of medicare, social
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benefits. i think the push from the vice president will be that kamala harris comes from the radical left of california and is going to erode the financial and economic base of the united states at a time when the country is in grave crisis. very little evidence to suggest that given what we are seeing right now is a grave economic crisis under the current president, and unfortunately, despite some very good work on the part of the fed and some early fiscal reforms that were absolutely critical, we are clearly seeing right now a failure of leadership on the economic front. much,ne: thank you so leslie vinjamuri, from chatham house. coming up, we will talk gold and treasuries. this is bloomberg. ♪
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lisa: i'm lisa abramowicz in new york, with francine lacqua in london. we are looking at a u.k. economy that suffered the biggest drop among all developed markets in europe, as well as the united states. i'm trying to understand from your perspective, how do investors trade this? we keep getting this terrible data. how are investors trading it? we have a risk-on feel, and i don't understand it. francine: it is difficult because first of all, you have this job crisis definitely worsening. the unemployment figure was the worst since 2009. you have had so for a government that has been aggressive with
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the furlough programs. have a government that work hand-in-hand in tandem with the bank of england, the bank of england being a small open economy but in control of its destiny. you could say it has been more aggressive than other central banks around the world. the question is, we have not spoken about brexit for at least two months. but at the end of the year, you also have the uncertainty of brexit, so how the bank of england and the chancellor navigate that will be an interesting and more difficult question. lisa: it is a model, and hard to give a narrative. turning us now is steen jakobsen. saxo bank chief executive officer. it looks pretty bleak. it seems to indicate that there will be more stimulus, so risk on. to look at no need any data because the market is totally divided from the real economy. i think the presidential debate that you just discussed in the
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other segment and the overall -- what we have seen over the last 48 hours is very sick synced. -- is very sick synced. -- is very succinct. in the case of a falling balance sheet, the federal reserve because of treasury hoarding, cash right now, and of course we have rising real rates, so both the facts and the narrative are failing and hence we are seeing the leverage market like gold having that exponential move to the downside. that just shows you that it is all built on a very thin layer of real capital and real ideas about the future. so i'm sorry, lisa, there is zero takeaway from the real economy except for the fact that expanding debt, and debt in itself of course is merely moving future consumption into the present time. lisa: ok, so what do you do with
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your money? how do you have any kind of conviction to put your money to work in that kind of environment? steen: you have to fight between the 20-year-old version of yourself which is saying understand the game and play by the rules. if you are smart enough -- i'm not, let me say that right away -- you can avoid the crash that comes with it, and the 50-year-old version of me that says listen, like lisa is asking, there is a consequence, extending of debt that doesn't work. up, the debt to gdp goes growth goes down. when you treat the balance sheet of the federal reserve, money goes down, and when money goes down, inflation goes down. day,bly at the end of the the only way we get inflation is a situation where we lose faith not only in the government but also in to some extent marginally with the dollar, some inflation.
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right now it is a fight between the 20-year-old version of myself and the 50-year-old. francine: you cannot completely get away from the fundamentals of the economy, which is huge job losses, people being displaced, not necessarily having access to government money. youor the market, how do view that longer-term? does it translate into more divisive politics, does it translate to a social contract? there are longer-term plans being built now. steen: absolutely, it is broken. after the u.s. election coming you may get the base of biden and the base of trump. it is not about that, it is about the rich against the poor. and more importantly, it has been the middle class. the middle class has been the biggest loser in this ongoing. they have increased cost of health care, no access to credit because banks are not lending out.
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the narrative in the political sense and what needs to be happening is totally opposite of what the narrative is right now. so i totally buy into the concept that it needs to change, come forime has leverage. what we saw in march as well is the fact that there is an infinite amount of liquidity on the others. but as soon as someone wants to sell anything in this world, it basically, you cannot find a bit anywhere he when you want to get out. buy, withiquidated to the federal reserve and what they do, but get out of the market, this morning we saw an oversized move that reflected the leverage and the lack of cash and most importantly the lack of collateral in the system. francine: thank you so much. we are asking about gold next. saxo bankbsen of
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it is aimed at strengthening the company's cable and mobile services. it is controlled by billionaire john malone. it is a move that will make tesla shares less expensive for the individual investor. the electric car company is splitting shares in a five for one exchange that has the stock rising today. tesla is up 228% this year. kodak significantly increased spending to lobby the federal government in the months before getting a $765 million government loan. kodak hasn't spent any money on lobbying since the expense of less than $5,000 in 2019. stocks could soar more than 2000%. that is your bloomberg business flash. lisa? francine? francine: thank you so much. this is what the market is looking at. they are looking at better than
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expected figures out of some of the banks, so if you look at european stocks, they are up. u.s. futures were also up, but it is very clear that in europe it is the technology that is going down. we saw advances in abn m -- abn amro. also looking at the pound, this is after we had data showing that the u.k., contracted last quarter by more than any other in europe, and i am looking at gold. silver joining the gold rebound, investors deciding the flight from precious metals and the advance in bond yields had gone up too far. up next, we speak with joseph amato, 6:30 a.m., 11: 30 a.m. in london. we will talk gold next. this is bloomberg. ♪ experience the ultimate sports hub.
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let's get back to steen jakobsen . we are talking a little about the equity markets and markets in general but yesterday we had either been if you look at what treasury bond yields were doing, climbing, cutting into this negative real rate that had supported, for example, gold. after these record highs had a bit of a correction yesterday, and now gold is floating backup. what do you do with right now? >> i bought some more this morning. 20% inet allocation is gold. it was taken down a bit on the high side of what we saw over the last couple of weeks. it waswledge the fact expensive going into this week. there was a risk we will see this kind of spike in real rates at inflation expectation based on the wrong premise but nevertheless, that is been the narrative. i have been adding to this because at the end of the day, central banks are not going to change their tune, governments
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are going to step up in terms of spending money they don't have. demonetization and ultimately, and my opinion, a loss of faith in the way we do, policies today. is thee: what exactly gold assent going to signify? we saw this bit of a blip yesterday, but what needs to happen for gold to start going down decisively? have a real economic policy that we actually see a connection between the better of thepolicies conducted into philosophy of money. there is simply no way in economics that more debt and more money can create -- it reduces the velocity of money. at the end of the day, inflation comes from one of two sources. either for velocity of money, which at the end of the day is net demand on lending to the banking system.
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banks have zero growth in actual lending. and on the other hand, like in -- that loose faith is the more likely path. it won't happen tomorrow but right now you want the living and the high interest rate. they are based on the premise that russia has a vaccine, that there is high beta between economic and monetary policy and economic growth. it is inverse relationship that is in place economically. lisa: you have a pretty dire prediction. buy bonds of some of the countries that are engaging in the policies that you're talking about? this is what i don't understand. the usl and record amounts of debt. why do yields keep going down? why do you see that is the path going forward given the fact people don't have faith in the u.s. policy? wrong, andt me
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having zero exposure to the fixed income. i decided in june of last year that fixed income was dying as an asset class. businessing and doing as a family office entity assignment, i don't need asked income. i'm getting no protection, as you saw in march. the reason interest rate will continue to go down is, one, we cannot afford any increase in interest rate. adjusting the magnitude of the move we saw in gold, the move we saw during the covid crisis, deleveraging of the system backing the assets we have in place in the market so overleveraged. lisa, you're pushing back indirectly. i amn, i am not negative, realistic. i am describing an economic system. i remain grounded in economics.
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economics you can only get growth through investment in research, basic research, in universities, education, in reducing amount of money and using price discovery. lisa, we have zero price discovery. the italian bonds trading south of 1%. they have not done any reforms. then people come out with all kinds of excuses why. at the end of the day, it is all backed by fiat money. what does it say on the one dollar note in the u.s.? in god we trust. i hope you're religious because that is the only collateral you have. lisa: you're talking about leveraging the system and certainly there has been a tremendous about of liquidity pumped in. can -- what are you going into instead of fixed income for the balance of your portfolio? portfolio.ong-term
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we mimic under chris cole's concept of 100 year folios. that means simplistically 20% in gold, 20% in volatility -- which is replacement of fixed income trading, 20% in cash. that is the five component we have. it sums revolutionary but it is only to situate in reversing of portfolio that will survive any kind of incident in the world. right now i think you want to replace, if not 20% like we are, at least 5% of your fixed income with the proper sort of insurance against the downside -- which is to belong volatility. lisa, you know as well as i do, why is the vix trading at 20% when everything is good in the world? francine: steen jakobsen, all fired up, thank you so much. joe biden and kamala harris
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will appear in a virtual fundraiser today, their first appearance since the democratic presidential candidate made the california senator his running mate. harris is the first lack woman and first asian-american on a major party presidential ticket. drags onlus stalemate the principles in the negotiations to get a new virus really package haven't spoken since friday. the white house has democrats must reduce their demands for $600 a week in unemployment andef and for aid to state local governments. democrats and republicans must put another trillion dollars on the table. u.s. government has reached a deal than other potential maker coronavirus vaccine. they will supply 100 million doses of the external shot in an agreement valued at up to $1.5 billion. the company already is getting 955 million dollars in -- eight. eight
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global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. francine: thank you. coming up on "balance of power," richard haass will be asked a thing or two about china and the new vice president pick of joe biden at 12:00 p.m. new york time, 5:00 p.m. in london. this is "bloomberg." ♪
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continues to suffer from the coronavirus pandemic. we spoke with chief executive officer yesterday. >> people are saying things april,than the lows in but certainly things have improved a bit. that being said, you're right, until we get a vaccine or some sort of perspective treatment, travel will have some issues. it is great that things are better than they were but we are also far away. --far as i can see, numbers what we really need is the since for safety. people want to feel it is ok to travel. the thing that will help us get there is a vaccine. hopefully, we will see something in the not so distant future. >> is the worst behind you? where do we go from here? is it better or plateauing? i'm curious the trajectory you
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think we are on. >> a lot of people have been talking about recent flareups in different parts of the world, places that have been clearly good but with some they're coming out with more infections causing lockdowns. look to australia in melbourne. look to some of the issues in hong kong. their parts in the world where things were great were very good and now they are not so good, even in europe. we will be under bit of a roller coaster for quite a while until we get that vaccine. we need that vaccine or some sort of effective treatment because when you read these things as terrible news items when people are still getting ill, unfortunately, some people not making it through the , it scares people. people want to feel safe. all of that leads to cash burn, cetera you did not have to raise any cash. you're cutting some of the
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workforce. i'm wondering how many levers left do you have distorted make it through until there is a vaccine? over $4nk we did raise billion, so we felt good about that raise. we are feeling comfortable of what our balance sheet looks like. we have been very clear, we have no problem getting through this crisis. that being said, what will the other side of it look like? what will change in terms of the industry? business travel does provide a lot of revenue to some of the helping thend airlines. are people going to be going on is many business trips as in the past? from our point of view, we are much more leisure-oriented. there is a little bit of a silver lining press because when there's a lack of demand for well, this people on the supply side have -- they are more
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interested in working with a distributor like us for that empty seat on the plane or empty room in a hotel. it is helpful to us. that is what is going to happen. glenn fogel.t was cases surpassed 20 million yesterday and the race for vaccine is heating up. russia boasts it to be ready in weeks. montana will manufacture distribute 100 may doses of the extreme in a vaccine. manufacture and distribute 100 million doses of the extreme and a vaccine. difficult question to answer, the big question with vaccines is, can we prove it is effective and safe? vaccine ise u.k.
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still some months away. hopefully, we would have data by christmas to enable us -- enable it to be given out this year, but that is still uncertain. people who expected know a lot more about vaccine development than i do are still being very cautious about whether or not actually it will ultimately be an effective vaccine. francine: paul, what kind of vaccine would be? is it similar to the flu where you would have to have the jab every year? what about into bodies? big insert do. my best guess reading the reports that are around annoying what i do about other vaccines is that it is likely in the first year you would probably --d to have it twice, maybe to get full protection. possibly after that,
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particularly for vulnerable groups, you may well have to be giving this once a year probably with the flu vaccine and probably to people who currently are recommended to take the flu vaccine. lisa: dr. hunter, vladimir putin has given his daughter the russian vaccine that he says is the first out there. would you give it to your daughter? >> i don't have a daughter, but i would be nervous about giving it to my son at the moment. i have not seen any of the data -- in fact, i don't think anybody in the west testing the data that is showing it is safe for -- and effective. well done to rush in producing it. russiat is, well done to in producing a. the thing with vaccines, you have to give it to so many people. you have to really show the vaccine is safe before you can
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start giving it widely. certainly, in the west we are very careful about that and i think that is the state we are at at the moment, proving it is effective and safe for large numbers of people. lisa: when you think we will get back to some swarm -- sort of normalcy? >> i have been saying next april-ish. that is as much a guess, hopefully an educated guess, aced on a really hard data. my suggestion for that is although probably in the first year we are not going to see much seasonality. generallynavirus spread more during winter, so i suspect after we come out of april, than the natural tendency for these viruses to spread will be reduced somewhat and hopefully by then, there will be a vaccine. i think that will be when we will be looking at life beginning to get back to normal. francine: thank you so much,
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with i am lisa abramowicz francine lacqua. yesterday, gold gray much in focus, the biggest selloff in dollar terms since 2013. it was unclear exactly why. right now we are seeing a little bit of a bounceback to 1929, but still, again, it goes back to the point that this idea of the massive amount of leverage in the system leading to some pretty violent moves. was planeyesterday i went out with my kids and i had to look up because i was looking at bloomberg and said, what is happening to gold?
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it took me a while to understand exactly what the dynamic was. yesterday was the biggest drop i think in six or seven years and it was quite sudden. that means quite a lot. it cut into the negative real rates that have supported the metal but it is unclear what it en on the, just why ste reversal on the other side. lisa colette find out what was going on. yesterday i was looking at it. i was wondering, what exactly is driving this? mark o'byrne is a better sense than i. mark, what was behind this huge decline? was it the increase in real yields in the united states? was it profit-taking after an incredible rally? >>. difficult to pinpoint exactly wasprimarily it profit-taking. we were quite overbought and at the short-term, see the massive move up in a short period of
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time. two steps forward and one step back. more than a $100 drop. most ia very large drop think everyone was expecting a sharp pullback but would it came 5% or 6% in one day, it was quite significant. was becoming a little overbought and frothy in the short-term, should we say. lisa: i'm trying understand the narrative behind gold. is it a hedge against potential risk off? is it the balance of the portfolio instead of fixed-income given how low yields are or simply a matter of how much liquidity pumped into the system, the devaluation of fiat currencies and gold the predominate alternative? it is a combination of all of those. the last one is probably the most important
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because quite significant financial geopolitical risks three months ago before we came into the pandemic and the government lockdowns and the response of the lockdowns and how that is impacting our economies in a huge way, so we're already vulnerable. the u.s. debt before we came the this crisis was around $23 trillion mark. increased 3.5 trillion dollars since february. wiest to talk about millions 20 years ago and then billions -- we used to talk about millions 20 years ago and then billions, naturally and. it is a very large number, indeed. you read it on bloomberg and reuters and the dollar symbol with a 1 and a t after it.
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we have massive government spending after it. we have the central banks basically creating dollars with the keyboards and buying assets. they're not just buying sovereign bonds, but they are buying junk bonds. they are buying etf's. the long-term applications i think people are concerned. haverent investors different motivations, but that is one of the prime motivations for most of our clients come anyway. francine: what will it take to burst the gold bubble? even if it does burst, given the various factors that are at play you're talking about, bullet go below one thousand $700,000 -- will it go below $1700? the trade is that technical levels and they can
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gravitate to these levels. it was 1700 to 1800 and we broke to that rate rapidly and went to well over $2000. we tendency resistance become support. i think we will see support of those levels. i don't think there's a bubble just yet in the gold market. most of the buying -- there's no gold rush. .hat is the headline we are busy but most dealers in the world are very busy, but some are very low base. if you look at the ownership of gold in the world, it is very low. you see this with the etf holdings. it is actually institutional money. it is a combination of the risk of the safe haven, the hedging, devaluation of currency, but i think it concerns of the negative interest rates, negative yield on bonds. gold is a great source long-term.
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people lose sight of that. thank you so much, mark o'byrne, goldcore research director. coming up, plenty more on gold and we will talk about treasuries. coming up in the next hour, david rosenberg. we will have plenty more on the markets. we are having a good conversation with mark o'byrne on gold and whether that key level of support is to let $1700 or whether it can be lowered in a correction. we had the u.k., the worst slump in europe, raising pressure for a rebound and the second half of the year. this is "bloomberg." ♪
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veep stakes. she becomes the first black woman first asian-american on a major party presidential ticket. u.k.ord slump in the economy shrink's 20% in the second quarter horse in european peers. the chancellor was that many more job losses to come. vaccine deal moderna will manufacture and distribute 100 million doses of the experimental coronavirus vaccine in the u.s. shares jumped in extended trade. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i have written the call with lisa abramowicz stepping in for tom keene. we had a great our looking at gold and some of the pandemics, treasuries u.s. politics. lisa: tom had to go because he was buying jewelry for mrs. ke ene. so expensive he can't
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